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Factors Affecting the CO2 Emissions Performance of Five EU Car Manufacturers

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Factors Affecting the CO2 Emissions Performance of Five EU Car Manufacturers Eionet Report - ETC/ATNI 2019/15 Factors affecting the CO2 emissions performance of five EU car manufacturers April 2020 Authors: Nikos Tsalikidis, Giorgos Mellios, Aris Mystakidis (EMISIA SA) ETC/ATNI consortium partners: NILU – Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Aether Limited, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), EMISIA SA, Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des risques (INERIS), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Umweltbundesamt GmbH (UBA-V), 4sfera Innova, Transport & Mobility Leuven NV (TML) Eionet Report - ETC/ATNI 2019/15 Cover photo © Bilderandi/pixabay Legal notice The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the European Commission or other institutions of the European Union. Neither the European Environment Agency, the European Topic Centre on Air pollution, transport, noise and industrial pollution nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency or the Topic Centre is responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this report. Copyright notice © European Topic Centre on Air pollution, transport, noise and industrial pollution, 2020 Reproduction is authorized, provided the source is acknowledged. Information about the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server (www.europa.eu). The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union did not affect the production of the report. Data reported by the United Kingdom are included in all analyses and assessments contained herein, unless otherwise indicated. Author(s) Nikos Tsalikidis, Giorgos Mellios, Aris Mystakidis (EMISIA SA) ETC/ATNI c/o NILU ISBN 978-82-93752-13-4 European Topic Centre on Air pollution, transport, noise and industrial pollution c/o NILU – Norwegian Institute for Air Research P.O. Box 100, NO-2027 Kjeller, Norway Tel.: +47 63 89 80 00 Email: [email protected] Web : https://www.eionet.europa.eu/etcs/etc-atni Contents Executive summary ....................................................................................................................... 4 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 5 2 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Selected OEMs ............................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Key strategies and technologies .................................................................................... 7 2.2.1 Hybridisation/electrification ............................................................................. 7 2.2.2 Engine technologies .......................................................................................... 7 2.2.3 Transmission upgrade ....................................................................................... 8 2.2.4 Other improvements ......................................................................................... 9 2.3 Technology data ............................................................................................................. 9 2.3.1 Market share/penetration of key CO2 reducing strategies and technologies .. 9 2.3.2 Effect on CO2 reduction................................................................................... 10 2.4 Calculations and assumptions ...................................................................................... 11 3 OEMs’ strategies analysis .................................................................................................... 12 3.1 Volkswagen .................................................................................................................. 12 3.1.1 Overall trends .................................................................................................. 12 3.1.2 CO2 technology reduction effects ................................................................... 14 3.1.3 Most popular model: Golf ............................................................................... 17 3.1.4 SUV analysis .................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Toyota .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.2.1 Overall trends .................................................................................................. 19 3.2.2 CO2 technology reduction effects ................................................................... 21 3.2.3 Most popular model: Yaris .............................................................................. 23 3.2.4 SUV analysis .................................................................................................... 25 3.3 BMW ............................................................................................................................ 26 3.3.1 Overall trends .................................................................................................. 26 3.3.2 CO2 technology reduction effects ................................................................... 28 3.3.3 Most popular model: Series 3 ......................................................................... 31 3.3.4 SUV analysis .................................................................................................... 33 3.4 Ford .............................................................................................................................. 34 3.4.1 Overall trends .................................................................................................. 34 3.4.2 CO2 technology reduction effects ................................................................... 36 3.4.3 Most popular model: Fiesta ............................................................................ 39 3.4.4 SUV analysis .................................................................................................... 40 3.5 Renault ......................................................................................................................... 42 3.5.1 Overall trends .................................................................................................. 42 3.5.2 CO2 technology reduction effects ................................................................... 44 3.5.3 Most popular model: Clio ............................................................................... 46 3.5.4 SUV analysis .................................................................................................... 48 4 Concluding remarks ............................................................................................................. 49 5 References ........................................................................................................................... 53 6 Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................... 56 Eionet Report - ETC/ATNI 2019/15 3 Executive summary Since 2010, the year that EEA started collecting data from all EU Member States, the officially reported CO2 tailpipe emissions of new passenger cars, based on laboratory testing, have reduced substantially. The scope of this report is to estimate and assess the most important technologies and strategies contributing to the observed CO2 reduction for selected car manufacturers based on new vehicles registered in the time period 2010 to 2018. These reductions can be attributed to both the overall improvement of vehicle energy efficiency as well as to a change in the mix of vehicle models sold in favour of more efficient powertrains/technologies. In particular, car manufacturers (OEMs) are using a broad spectrum of technologies to improve fuel efficiency for their vehicles in response to EU CO2 targets. In summary, these technologies can be grouped in the following major categories: • Internal combustion engine (ICE) related technologies (e.g. Downsizing/Turbocharging, Direct Injection) • Different degrees of hybridisation/electrification • Transmission technologies • Improved vehicle design and aerodynamics To this aim, five major car manufacturers were separately analysed, all in the top ranks in terms of new vehicle sales in the European market, taking into account aspects such as average yearly reported CO2 trend, total new registrations in the EU area, and the promotion of low or zero carbon vehicles, e.g. plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) or battery electric vehicles (BEV). Furthermore, the average trends regarding their car models with the highest number of registrations in the 2010-2018 time frame, as well as their respective SUV models, were separately analysed. The primary driving force behind the achieved reductions in CO2 are the improvements in conventional powertrains (incl. hybridisation) and the design of modern cars. Based on estimated results, all OEMs, followed the same general tactics and deployed similar concepts, during the examined time period (2010-2018). A notable example of this is the downsizing of petrol engines, via the use of turbochargers, which was deployed intensely by almost all OEMs, for petrol cars. However, there are also indications of diversification among OEM strategies, such as the promotion of hybridised instead of fully electrified powertrains. Another diversification example is the different unique technological packages
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