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Beyond Six Billion.Pdf http://www.nap.edu/catalog/9828.html We ship printed books within 1 business day; personal PDFs are available immediately. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, Editors; Panel on Population Projections, Committee on Population, National Research Council ISBN: 0-309-50497-X, 258 pages, 6 x 9, (2000) This PDF is available from the National Academies Press at: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/9828.html Visit the National Academies Press online, the authoritative source for all books from the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, the Institute of Medicine, and the National Research Council: • Download hundreds of free books in PDF • Read thousands of books online for free • Explore our innovative research tools – try the “Research Dashboard” now! • Sign up to be notified when new books are published • Purchase printed books and selected PDF files Thank you for downloading this PDF. If you have comments, questions or just want more information about the books published by the National Academies Press, you may contact our customer service department toll- free at 888-624-8373, visit us online, or send an email to [email protected]. This book plus thousands more are available at http://www.nap.edu. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF File are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Distribution, posting, or copying is strictly prohibited without written permission of the National Academies Press. Request reprint permission for this book. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population http://www.nap.edu/catalog/9828.html BEYOND SIX BILLION Forecasting the World’s Population Panel on Population Projections John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, Editors Committee on Population Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population http://www.nap.edu/catalog/9828.html NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS • 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. • Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by grants to the National Academy of Sciences from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the Rockefeller Founda- tion, the United States Agency for International Development, and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Suggested citation: National Research Council (2000) Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World’s Population. Panel on Population Projections. John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, eds. Committee on Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data National Research Council (U.S.) Beyond six billion : forecasting the world's population / Panel on Population Projections, Committee on Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council ; John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, editors. p. cm. ISBN 0-309-06990-4 (hard) 1. Population forecasting. I. Title: Beyond 6 billion. II. Bongaarts, John, 1945- III. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., 1944- IV. Title. HB849.53 .N385 2000 304.6′2′0112--dc21 00-009983 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitu- tion Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Cover: Hands, copyright The Stock Market/Don Mason, 2000, and view of the earth from space, NASA. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population http://www.nap.edu/catalog/9828.html National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating soci- ety of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedi- cated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem- bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis- ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal gov- ernment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro- viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population http://www.nap.edu/catalog/9828.html Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population http://www.nap.edu/catalog/9828.html PANEL ON POPULATION PROJECTIONS JOHN BONGAARTS (Chair), The Population Council, New York City JUHA M. ALHO, Department of Statistics, University of Joensuu, Finland ALAKA M. BASU, Division of Nutritional Sciences, Cornell University JOHN G. CLELAND, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine JOEL E. COHEN, Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University and Columbia University KENNETH H. HILL, Department of Population and Family Health Services, Johns Hopkins University NICO KEILMAN, Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Norway RONALD D. LEE, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley MASSIMO LIVI-BACCI, Department of Statistics, University of Florence, Italy DOUGLAS S. MASSEY, Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania S. PHILIP MORGAN, Department of Sociology, Duke University ALBERTO PALLONI, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison ANNE R. PEBLEY, School of Public Health and Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles SHARON STANTON RUSSELL, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WARREN C. SANDERSON, Department of Economics, State University of New York, Stony Brook THOMAS SCHELLING, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland, College Park MICHAEL TEITELBAUM, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, New York City JAMES W. VAUPEL, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany RODOLFO A. BULATAO, Study Director HOLLY E. REED, Research Associate ELIZABETH A. WALLACE, Project Assistant v Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population http://www.nap.edu/catalog/9828.html COMMITTEE ON POPULATION JANE MENKEN (Chair), Institute of Behavioral Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE,* Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University JOHN BONGAARTS, The Population Council, New York City ELLEN BRENNAN-GALVIN, Population Division, United Nations, New York City JOHN N. HOBCRAFT, Population Investigation Committee, London School of Economics F. THOMAS JUSTER,
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