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In Search of Power and Credibility Essays on Chinese Monetary History (1851-1945)

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In Search of Power and Credibility Essays on Chinese Monetary History (1851-1945) THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE In Search of Power and Credibility Essays on Chinese Monetary History (1851-1945) Xun YAN A thesis submitted to the Department of Economic History of the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy London, March 2015 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 72,820 words, inclusive of footnotes and appendices but exclusive of bibliography. Statement of use of third party for editorial help I can confirm that part of my thesis was proofread by Ms. Skye Hughes and Dr Eve Richards. ii Abstract In many respects, the mid-nineteenth century marks the beginning of China’s modern history: the Opium War (1839-42) and domestic turbulence compelled Chinese statesmen to realise that the old state apparatus was no longer able to cope with the changing world. However the pursuit of greater state capacity collided with a feeble ability to raise taxes and an ancient monetary system far from being unified. How did the government carry out even limited alterations to the monetary system in times of urgent fiscal need? And how did the monetary evolution proceed with these partial reforms? This thesis focuses on the movement of the Chinese monetary system from a traditional metallic system to a modern fiat money system, and discusses three issues during different phases of the transition. The first part re-examines the case of ‘Xianfeng inflation’ (1853-61) when the government attempted to issue new monies to resolve the crisis in public finances. It points out that under the traditional commodity money system the government had little impact on money supply, and that the so-called inflation was an outcome of coinage debasement combined with a banking crisis resulting from the debt default. The second part focuses on the introduction of modern coinage minted with steam power around the 1900s, enabling the government to supply credible monies that no longer relied on their intrinsic metallic values. It argues that this technological innovation allowed the Chinese government for the first time to implement effective monetary manipulation and exert an impact on the rural economy. The third part investigates the behaviour of money holders during a war. It compares the velocities of paper notes issued in Free China and Occupied China during the Second World War (1937-45) and demonstrates that the credibility of the monies depends most on people’s expectations about the survival of the regime. The transition from a traditional to a modern currency system is a search for a new monetary credibility that had formerly lain within the value of the metal. The evolution of the Chinese monetary system illustrates vividly the constant state struggle between monetary credibility – via coercion, technology, or legitimacy – and its pocket gain, when the fiscal soundness is at stake. iii Acknowledgements It would not have been possible to write this doctoral thesis without the help and support of the kind people around me. First and foremost, I would like to thank my parents, Wenqiu Yan and Zhongqin Li, who have given me their understanding, support and unconditional love throughout. My deepest gratitude goes to my supervisors Debin Ma and Oliver Volckart for their encouragement and guidance, and for reading numerous drafts of these chapters with insightful comments, great patience and good humour. My sincere thanks also go to Albrecht Ritschl and Max-Stephan Schulze of the Department of Economic History for offering support when I needed. My thesis examiners, Larry Neal and Thomas Rawski, carefully investigated the manuscript and offered comments that are mostly enlightening and have allowed me to make some revisions to the previously submitted version. I am grateful for the inspiration and encouragement I have received from many scholars and peers I have been privileged to know over the course of my academic training. In particular, I am indebted to Weipeng Yuan, Hanhui Guan, Kaixiang Peng and Cheng- Chung Lai for their generous help in my exploration of the world of Chinese economic history and in obtaining previous archival materials. I am also grateful to Vincent Bignon, Lin Fu, Yifei Huang, Romain Lafarguette, Peter Lin, Cong Liu, Lemin Wu, and Meng Xu for their inspiring conversation and practical help. My time in London would not be complete without my friends including Pei, Vicky, Ting, Aofei, Veya, Sissi, Michael, Ting-Ting, Ling-Fan, Hsiao-Hui, Yu-Hsiang, Dawn, Gerardo and Stephan, who have given me much good advice, offered me company and helped me go through several difficult times. Without their support, I would not have come this far. This thesis is dedicated to Papa and Mama. iv Contents DECLARATION .......................................................................................................................................... II ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................... III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................................ IV CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................................ V LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................... VII LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................................... VIII LIST OF TRADITIONAL CHINESE UNITS ................................................................................................... IX INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................... 1 State and money .................................................................................................................................. 1 Episodes under examination and outline of the chapters ................................................................... 6 Outline ................................................................................................................................................ 8 CHAPTER 1 REASSESSING THE XIANFENG INFLATION (1853-1861): ...................................... 9 1.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 10 1.2 HISTORICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT ..................................................................................... 14 1.2.1 Socioeconomic challenges of the nineteenth century ............................................................... 14 1.2.2 Public finance in crisis ............................................................................................................ 16 1.2.3 Monetary system and its changes in Xianfeng ......................................................................... 22 1.2.4 The looming fiscal crisis and monetary policy debates ........................................................... 25 1.3 ANALYSIS OF THE XIANFENG MONETARY POLICY: MONIES AND THEIR PERFORMANCE .................... 28 1.3.1 Decomposition of the new monies ........................................................................................... 29 1.3.2 New monies in public finance: the currency composition of government income and expenditure ....................................................................................................................................... 47 1.3.3 New monies in the market: Money stock and the price level in Beijing, 1851-61 ................... 52 1.4 THE XIANFENG INFLATION: A REASSESSMENT ................................................................................. 57 1.4.1 Tackling puzzle I: did the monetary policy achieve its fiscal ends? ........................................ 57 1.4.2 Tackling puzzle II: a new explanation of the inflation mechanism .......................................... 63 1.5 CONCLUDING REMARKS ................................................................................................................... 68 1.6 APPENDICES ..................................................................................................................................... 72 Appendix A: Archival materials concerning Xianfeng’s Reign ........................................................ 72 Appendix B: Statistics from treasury records ................................................................................... 75 Appendix C: Market price information ............................................................................................. 79 Appendix D: Estimates of Beijing’s money
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