Evaluation of Mud Flow Disaster Alternatives in Sidoarjo Regency Indonesia
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
EVALUATION OF MUD FLOW DISASTER ALTERNATIVES IN SIDOARJO REGENCY INDONESIA John Mclachlan Karr I Putu Artama Wiguna Amien Widodo ns lnstitut Teknologl Sep\lluh Nopember EVALUATION OF MUD FLOW DISASTER ALTERNATIVES IN SIDOARJO REGENCY, EAST JAVA, INDONESIA ITS 628.92.. -1 l<o..A... ...e. - , 2-ol~ December 2012 Xvafuation of3vt:ru{ :Ffow 'Disaster J'tfternatives in Sitfoarjo 'R.eEJe1lCy, Xast Java. IndOnesia. ISBN 978-602-17652-0-3 II IIIII 1111 9 786021 765203 Written by: John Mclachlan Karr, I Putu Artama Wiguna, Amien Widodo Setting and lay-out : Amien Widodo Cover Designer: Sueb Published by : This ·Pusat Studi Kebumian dan Bencana (PSKB) edu Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat (LPPM) hoi lnstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember {ITS) Surabaya Website: http://pskb .its.ac.id/ This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or not-for-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement is made of the source. Cover photo: John McLachlan Karr TABLE OF CONTENTS Page PREFACE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................. 2 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION...... ............................. ................... 9 1.1. Background..................................... .................................. 9 1.2. Aims and Objectives............................................................ 11 1.3 Review of Existing Data....................................................... 12 1.4 Brief Chronology ofEvents......... .............................. ............. 13 1.5. hnpacts..................................................................... .. .. 14 1.6. Historical Setting of the Study Area . .. .. .. .. ... 20 1.8. Demography of the Study Area.............................................. 22 CHAPTER II CONCEPTS............................................................. 23 2.1. Energy . 24 2.2. Principles of Energy Systems.................. .. .................... ... ...... 25 2.2.1. 1st Law . ... .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 25 2.2.2. 2nd La\V............. .................... .. 26 2.2.3. 3rd Law...................... ...... .................. .. ................... 26 2.2.4. Emergy........ .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 27 2.2.5. Maximum Empower Principle (4th Law)............................ 27 2.2.6. 5th Law ... All Systems Are Organized Hierarchically............. 28 2.2.7. The Principle ofUniversal Material Distribution And Processing..... ...................................................... 30 2.3 E1ndollars.......................................................................... 31 CHAPTER III METHODOLOGY....... .... ........................ .................. 33 3.1 Emergy Analysis and Other Energy Methods................................ 33 3.2 Steps in the Method......... .................................................... 34 CHAPTER IV RESULTS...................... ................................... ...... 43 4.1 Energy Systems Diagram Of Overview Model of Sidoatjo Regency............................................................................ 45 4.2. Economic Impact Evaluation in Emdollars........... ..... ..... .. ... 46 4.3. Emdollar Evaluation Tables..................................................... 47 11 4.4. Disaster Impact Evaluation ..................................................... 49 4.5. Impacts on Environment.. ................. .................................... 52 4.5.1 Econon1ic System ............... ............................ ............. 52 4.5.2. In1ports .................................................................. .. 53 4.5.3. Petformance Indicators ................................................. 54 Figm 4.6. Evaluation of Altematives .................................................... .. 55 Figm 4.6.1. Potential Mud Diversion Site ......................................... 57 Figur 4.6.2. Preliminary Costing ..................................................... 59 Figur 4.6.3. Costing Table of Altematives ............................ .. ... ....... 60 Figm 4.6.4. Impacts of Altematives to Porong River and Coastal Area ... .. 66 4.7 Ecosystems ....... ................................................ ................ 69 Figw· 4. 7 .1. Mangrove System ...................................................... 69 Figur 4. 7 .2. Other Species Survey ..... ................................... .......... 71 4.7.3. Engineering A Mud Lay Down Area ...................... .......... 72 Figur 4.8. Modeling ............... ................................................... ..................... 72 Figur 4.8.1. Mangrove Succession Model for Alternative ..................... .. 72 4.8.2. Model of Water Diversion into the Deposition Area ............. .. 75 Figur CHAPTER V DISCUSSION ......................................................... .. 79 Figm 5.1. Incorporation of Specialist Knowledge ...................................... 79 Figm Genetic Information and Nationally Shared Information .................. 80 Figur 1\ ,: 5.2. 'i)l 5.3. Geologic Cycle and Solar Hydrological Cycle ................ ... .......... 80 l1 1 1 5.4. Cultural Systems ................ ......................... ......................... 82 Figur 5.5. Economic Systems ............................................................... 83 5.6. Ecosy stetns .. ................................... ..................................... 84 Fi'=~ 5.6.1. Coastal Wetlands ....... ................................. ................. .. 84 F".;,...: 85 'C' 5.6.2 Wetland-Aquaculture Production Model... ........................... = 86 5.7 Organisms ..... .................. .................................................... = 89 CHAPTER VI CONCLUSION .................................................. ....... .. = 6.1 Conclusion .......................................................................... 89 6.2 Further Research ..................... ................. ......... ....... ....... ..... 90 REFERENCES .. ......................................................... ............... .... 93 111 TABLE OF FIGURES Page Figure l. l Location of the Lusi Disaster in East Java (red anow).... .. .. ... 9 Figure I. 2 Model of Adaptive Response to the Lusi disaster...................... 11 Figure l. 3 The first months of the Mud volcano disaster..................... .... 14 Figure 1. 4 Photo: Mud volcano site before mud mudflow (from CRISP, 2005) 15 Figure l. 5 Photos of the affected area by National Team ofMudflow Management March, 2007..... .. 15 Figure l. 6 Gas explosion in Porong (National Team Repmt, 2007)..... ..... .. ... 16 Figure 1. 7 Flooding in Porong after a dam embankment failure in Febn1ruy 2008... ....... .............. ............ ..... ........ ............ 19 Figure 1. 8 Impacttrom Subsidence ofLusi mud volcano in May 2008.... ....... 20 Figure 2. 1 Sidorujo Regency is a sub-set of the yearly global energy material cycle............ ... ............................ .................................. 25 Figure 2. 2 Second law & matter transtonnity process............................... 26 Figure 2. 3 Systems maximize power . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 28 Figure 2. 4 Atl systems are organized as hierarchies . .. .. .. .. .. .... 29 Figure 2. 5 Spatial convergences of materials to centres because of their coupling to the convergence of energy . .. .. .. .. .. 30 Figure 2: 6 Coupling of energy flows and the dependant economic system with money circulating only on the Right... 31 Figure 2.7 Overview showing relationship of money to energy flows in US$..... 32 Figure 3. 1 The energy flux of any area varies over time............................... 35 Figure 3. 2 Arrangement of symbols in systems diagram............................. 36 Figure 3. 3 Energy System symbols.............. ........ ...... ............. ............. 36 Figure 3. 4 The preliminary overview model from the Team member inputs..... 37 Figure 3. 5 Emergy evaluation table..................................................... 38 Figure 3. 6 All systems have a unique energy signature.............................. 38 Figure 3. 7 Transformity of a flow producing a new product of higher quality but with less energy.............. ........... .. .. ............................. 39 Figure 3. 8 Diagram used for evaluation of alternatives.............. ............... 39 iv Figw·e 3. 9 Evaluation of performance diagram .. ............................... 40 Figu Figure 3.10 Modelling procedure used in the Study................................ 41 Figure 4.1 GIS of Study area ............................. ............................ .. 43 Figu Figure 4. 2 Over-view model of the main flows and processes in Sidoarjo Figu Regency. ........... .......................................... .................... 45 Figure 4. 3 Overview showing evaluation of natural capital in Sidorujo as Figu a fhnction of its contribution to GDP with 3 arm diagram below ......... 46 Figu Figure 4. 4 Emdollar signature of Sidomjo Regency (2006-7) in Logatithmic Figu Scale........................................................................ ...... 49 Figu Figure 4. 5 Magnitude of the Mud Volcru10 disaster as a pulse compared Figu1 to average inputs from the geological and hydrological cycle........... 50 Figure 4. 6 The sedimentary pulse from the mud volcano seen as a dramatic increase in energy 51 Figure 4. 7 Former urban area in Porong, Sidoarjo 52 Figure 4. 8 Value of main Internal Services in Sidoarjo Regency................... 53 Figure 4. 9 Performance