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Economic, and Social Councr UNITED NATiONS GENERAL ECONOMIC, E/CN.12/825 AND 12 March, 1969 ENGLISH SOCIAL COUNCR ORIGINAL: SPANISH ■ .... ll llllll 111111111111101111,111,1,1110111,111111111.111111/11.11111.1111.11.11■ 1111.17111111/111111,01,01.011111/1100.111111111111■101 lllllll 11,111,1111:11111/11 lllll llllll "1111111 /11141,11/1 11111.1111111111. lllll tul ECONOMIC COMMISSION FCR LATIN AMERICA Thirteenth session Lima, Peru, 14-23 April 1969 ECONOMIC SURVEY OF LATIN AMERICA, 1968 Part One SOME ASPECTS OF THE LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMY TOWARDS THE END OF THE NINETEEN—SIXTIES 1 E/CN.12/825 Page I—iii TAPIE OF CONTENTS Part One SOME ASPECTS OF THE LáTIN AMERICAN ECONOMY TOWARDS THE END OF THE NINETEEN—SIXTIES EiLe INTRODUCCION • •• • • •• •• •••• •••00 Chapter I0 POPULATION, INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT . **** 1 lo Population ....... ********** .0., ***** 1 2. Level, composition and distribution of the product and income 15 3. Employment problems ..............0 50 Appendix: Criteria for the conversion into dollars of income figures expressed in tercos of Latin American currency units ...0 75 Máthematical appendix 82 Chapter II. THE REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES • • •• •• •• .• • • • 84 1. Background information 84 2* Characteristics of geographical concentration ***** .......... *********** 5,10 3. Some examples of regional development in Latín America ,....... ***** 0 ******* ocopolBee 101 4. Regional development prospects and policies 113 Chapter III. THE EXTERNAL SECTCR • o...400 128 10 Characteristics and trends cf foreign trade sosolo***•de *********** leo•o••••••••10,0 128 2. The balance of payments and mayement of capital ****** ********** 169 Chapter IV. THE PUBLIC SECTOR * 4.4*****040******* 40.*** 195 1. Resources channelled through the public sector 196 2. The institutional organization of the public sector ************* 204 3. The capacity for planned decision—máking *e 212 /Part One • II E/CN.12/825 Page v INTRODUCTION The two parts of the present EconomicSualy differ in Character, but they complement each other in presenting an up—to—date view of the salient features and trends of Latin American development. Part One comprises a kind of balance—sheet of some of die main aspects of the Latin American economy at the end of this decade, comparing the present magnitudes with the trends they have followed in recent years, This seems the right moment to present such a balance when there is an evident desire for a critical examination of the guidelines and objectives of development policy, not only for the sake of a deeper interpretation and understanding of the problems of under— development, but also to encourage the efforts now being made to laun.ch a second Development Decade. Part Two is essentially a review of developments in 1968 in the region as a Whole and in each individual country. As in previous Lu=y2, its purpose is to present a systematic compilation of data and information describing the short—term changes and, in general, the main characteristics of recent economic development. Although the two parts have different aims, a study of both provides a basis for evaluating recent events in the light of longer— term prospects and, at the same time, for observing how some structural factors are becoming more important while others are changing in their effect on the course of economic development. In more direct terms, the 1968 results were in general most favourable; but, for the appraisal to be accurate, the fact that some of the determining factors were entirely fortuitous must not be overlooked. For example it is necessary to bear in mind that this is not the first time that some areas of the economy have been expanding or relatively prosperous. The last few decades have witnessed others, but as a rule they did not mark the /beginning of .:,E/C11012/$25 Page vi,. beginning of a lasting trend. Moreover, data covering a short span should be evaluated within a broader perspective which would reveal the outstanding structural features of the period and, therefore, of the kind of situation that is characterizing or taking chape at the end of .the decade. NaturallY„-the-diekents of flexibility that seem to emerge from recent exPerienOe must not be Under-estimated in this appraisal eithere The material contained in the two parts is Mai descriptive and no attempt has been made to present an analytical interpretation. This is done in other secretariat documents which are being presented, together w th this Survey, at the Commissionfs thirteenth sessilm. E/W.12/825 Pago I-1 Part One SOME ASPECTS OF THE LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMY TOWARDS THE FAZ OF THE NINETF,EN-SIXTIES Chapter I POPULATION, INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT 1. Population (a) Pow1211on size and rowth By 1970 the population of Latin America will be over 280 million, and its Share of the world population will be close to 8 per cent. As the population of the region was lens than 90 million in 1920, this means that it has more than trebled in the last fifty years, whereas the world population has not even doübled in the Same lapse of time (see table I-1). Latin America is thuS. the region where the most rapid demographic growth has taken place, and the rate still continues to outstrip that of any other part of the world. To make a more accurate diagnosis, a closer study is required of over-all population trends in each of the last few decades, and of trends in the individual countries, since the changing angle of observation reveals highly significant differences. The growth rete of the population of the region as a whole was particularly rapid during the nineteen-forties and fifties, and soared so high that it has risen relatively little during the present decade. Between 1920 and 1930 the over-ali increment was 20.9 per cent. This proportion dropped slightly during the thirties to 20.7 per cent, but expended in the forties to 25.5 per cent and increased equally quickly during the fifties, when it was 31 per cent. In the sixties the increase will have been about 32 per cent (see figure I-1). /Table I -1 E/W.12/825 Page I-2 Tabla 1-1 ESTIMATES OF WORLD POPULATION BY MAJOR REGIONS, 1920-70 Region 1920 1930 , 1940 1950 1960 1970 East Asia 553 345 591 244 634 420 684 353 794 144 910 524 South Asia 469 770 528 964. 609 993 696 722 865 247 1 106 905 Europe 324 800 353 947 378 920 391 717 424 657 453 918 Soviet Union 155 300 179 000- 195 (500 186 000 214 400 245 700 Africa 142 921 163 846 191 458 221 538 272 924 345 949 North America 115 661 134 166 144 342 166 073. 198 664 226 803 Latin America 88 967 107 579 129 854 163 014 213 529 282 333 Oceánia- 8 521 10 044 11 060 12 677 15 713 18 711 TOTAL 1 859 285 2 068 790 2 295 047 2 516 094 2 999 278 3 590 843 Sources: Latin Auerica: Latín American Zemographiétentre (O_LLAD41, Boletín Demográfico, Year 1, Vol. I (Santiago, Chile, January 1968). •Other regions: World_r2pulatión prosoects assetsed'in 11(9_ (United Nations publication, Sales No.:66.XIII.2), tablas 3.1 and 3.2. /Figure I-1 E/CN.l2/825 Page 1-3 Figure 1-1 LATIN AMERICA: CHANCES IN THE GROWTH RATE OF THE POPULATION (Ten-year averages in percentages) Natural scale 50 i 40 30 20 1— 10 1920-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 /This recent E/CN.12/825 Page I.-4 This recent deceleration has taken place at very high levels of natural growth, but even so it is significant in itself and in relation to the world total. During the twenties and thirties, the rate of population growth in Latin America was almost twice as high as the world yate, and more than two and a half times as high as in the forties. In the last twenty years, however, it has only been about 60 per cent higher. These changes in the ratio of the growth rates have been partly due to the acceleration of population growth in other under-developed regions, which, with a time-lag of one or two decades, are repeating the process that began in Latin America thirty years ego.- Within Latin America, population growth has varied widely from one country to another. The population of Venezuela and Costa Rica in 1970 will be nearly four and one third times as large as in 1920, while that of Uruguay will have barely doubled. Apart from these extreme cases, there are only two countries - the Dominican Republic and Guatemala - in which the population will have increased more than three and a half times in relation to its 1920 Level, and in two others - Haiti and Bolivia - it will have increased less than two and a half times. In thirteen 9/ countries -r- which, by 1970, will have nearly 85 per cent of the total regional population, the number of inhabitants will be two and a half to three and a half times as great as in 1920 (see table Despíte these wide differences in growth, the lorg-term trends are remalkably similar. In most countries, the growth rato has steadily been gathering speed since 1920, but in at least eight, relative stagnation or a decline has set in at different points in the post-war period (see table 1-3). 1/ In Africa and Asia the sharp acceleration took place mainly in the fifties. A comparison of the periods 1940-50 and 1950-60 shows that the ten-year rate of population growth rose from 7.9 to 16 per cent in East Asia, from 14.2 to 24.2 per cent in South Asia and from 15.7 to 23.2 per cent in Africa.
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