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Impacts of Changing Climate on the Non-Indigenous Invertebrates in the Northern Baltic Sea by End of the Twenty-First Century

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Impacts of Changing Climate on the Non-Indigenous Invertebrates in the Northern Baltic Sea by End of the Twenty-First Century http://www.diva-portal.org This is the published version of a paper published in Biological Invasions. Citation for the original published paper (version of record): Holopainen, R., Lehtiniemi, M., Meier, H E., Albertsson, J., Gorokhova, E. et al. (2016) Impacts of changing climate on the non-indigenous invertebrates in the northern Baltic Sea by end of the twenty-first century. Biological Invasions, 18(10): 3015-3032 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10530-016-1197-z Access to the published version may require subscription. N.B. When citing this work, cite the original published paper. Permanent link to this version: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-126291 Biol Invasions (2016) 18:3015–3032 DOI 10.1007/s10530-016-1197-z ORIGINAL PAPER Impacts of changing climate on the non-indigenous invertebrates in the northern Baltic Sea by end of the twenty-first century Reetta Holopainen . Maiju Lehtiniemi . H. E. Markus Meier . Jan Albertsson . Elena Gorokhova . Jonne Kotta . Markku Viitasalo Received: 18 September 2014 / Accepted: 7 June 2016 / Published online: 17 June 2016 Ó The Author(s) 2016. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Abstract Biological invasions coupled with climate assessed how climate change will likely affect them. change drive changes in marine biodiversity. Warm- Our findings suggest a future decrease in barnacle ing climate and changes in hydrology may either larvae and an increase in Ponto-Caspian cladocerans enable or hinder the spread of non-indigenous species in the pelagic community. In benthos, polychaetes, (NIS) and little is known about how climate change gastropods and decapods may become less abundant. modifies the richness and impacts of NIS in specific By contrast, dreissenid bivalves, amphipods and sea areas. We calculated from climate change simu- mysids are expected to widen their distribution and lations (RCO-SCOBI model) the changes in summer increase in abundance in the coastal areas of the time conditions which northern Baltic Sea may to go northern Baltic Sea. Potential salinity decrease acts as through by the end of the twenty-first century, e.g., a major driver for NIS biogeography in the northern 2–5 °C sea surface temperature rise and even up to Baltic Sea, but temperature increase and extended 1.75 unit decrease in salinity. We reviewed the summer season allow higher reproduction success in temperature and salinity tolerances (i.e., physiological bivalves, zooplankton, amphipods and mysids. Suc- tolerances and occurrence ranges in the field) of cessful NIS, i.e., coastal crustacean and bivalve pelagic and benthic NIS established in—or with species, pose a risk to native biota, as many of them dispersal potential to—the northern Baltic Sea, and have already demonstrated harmful effects in the Baltic Sea. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10530-016-1197-z) contains supple- mentary material, which is available to authorized users. R. Holopainen (&) Á M. Lehtiniemi Á M. Viitasalo J. Albertsson Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute Umea˚ Marine Sciences Centre, Umea˚ University, (SYKE), P.O. Box 140, 00251 Helsinki, Finland 90571 Norrbyn, Ho¨rnefors, Sweden e-mail: [email protected] E. Gorokhova H. E. M. Meier Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemu¨nde, Chemistry, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, 18119 Rostock, Germany Sweden H. E. M. Meier J. Kotta Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Ma¨ealuse 60176 Norrko¨ping, Sweden 14, 12618 Tallinn, Estonia 123 3016 R. Holopainen et al. Keywords Brackish water Á Environmental multiple invasive or non-indigenous species have been tolerance Á Climate change Á Spionida Á Mollusca Á studied very little. The Baltic Sea in the northern Arthropoda latitudes has been sometimes playfully called ‘a field laboratory for invasion biology’ (Leppa¨koski et al. 2002), and as one of the best studied sea areas in the world, with relatively few indigenous species and with Introduction a high number of introduced species, is an ideal area for studying the impacts of climate change on non- Biological invasions along with climate change have indigenous species. As a brackish water body it also been recognized as a major threat and a direct driver serves as a study area for changes in future hydrology, for changes in marine biodiversity (Rockstro¨m et al. in addition to changes in temperature. 2009; UNEP 2006). Both processes are able to cause As many as 119 non-indigenous species have been major changes in the geographical range of native observed in the Baltic Sea, where the coastal southern species and communities (Hampe and Petit 2005; and northern lagoons and gulfs suffer from a high level Kernan 2015; Parmesan 2006; Walther et al. 2009). of ‘biopollution’ (Zaiko et al. 2011). By non-indige- Also various direct consequences of the climate nous species we refer to (not necessarily invasive) change for the invasive species (i.e. non-indigenous species, which would have not been able to disperse species or NIS, with negative impacts on biota, from their natural range to the Baltic Sea without some economic values, or human health) have been pro- human vector, including for instance vectors like posed (Hellmann et al. 2008), including for example shipping or deliberate release in the wild. Majority of changes to climatic constraints that control the distri- the NIS in the Baltic Sea are benthic or pelagic bution of non-indigenous species. Climate change invertebrates (crustaceans, mollusks, annelids), with may also change the way these species impact the some fish, macrophyte and other species (Zaiko et al. environment and alter the effectiveness of manage- 2011). Consequences of recent warming on some NIS ment strategies aimed to mitigate the harmful impacts in the northern Baltic Sea have been suggested. of invasive species. Majority of the available literature According to Ojaveer et al. (2011) zooplankton species on climate-induced biological invasions deals with Cercopagis pengoi, cirriped Amphibalanus improvisus warming effects (Walther et al. 2009). Most often and polychaetes Marenzelleria spp. have become more climate change has been considered to favour invasive abundant in the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga during species (Dukes and Mooney 1999; Thuiller et al. recent decades and this has been partially accounted for 2007), and globally a large-scale invasion of species mild winters and warmer summers. Panov et al. (2007) from warm water environments to cold marine waters have suggested that non-indigenous zooplankton is expected (Jones and Cheung 2014). Climate change species have positively responded to changes in may for instance create new habitats for thermophilic climatic conditions of the recent past, allowing these non-indigenous species in areas where they previously species to reproduce and establish in the Baltic Sea. would have not been able to survive and reproduce However, no studies on the impacts of both temper- (Sorte et al. 2010; Walther et al. 2009). Other climatic ature and salinity changes on multiple non-indigenous factors should be however taken into more consider- species, have been published for the Baltic Sea, ation, as especially in the northern latitudes the future although many native species have been assessed for climate projections suggest more precipitation, and future changes (Vuorinen et al. 2015). hence more freshwater discharge to the sea (IPCC Due to its small water volume (21,205 km3) and 2013). The reduced salinity in estuarine habitats has in large watershed (1,633,290 km2) the semi-enclosed some cases shown to be an even more important factor Baltic Sea is particularly vulnerable for climate than temperature in governing the local distributions induced changes in hydrology. Since its formation of species (Brady and Somero 2006a, b). following the last glaciation, strong gradients have Bioinvasion studies under future climate deal existed in the Baltic Sea for temperature, and salinity mostly with the range expansion of a single or a few which decreases from ca. 20 PSU in the Danish straits species (Gallardo and Aldridge 2013; McDowell et al. to 1–2 PSU in the northern and eastern parts 2014). The direct consequences of climate change on (Leppa¨ranta and Myrberg 2009). In addition to spatial 123 Impacts of changing climate on the non-indigenous invertebrates in the northern Baltic… 3017 gradients, significant long-term variations in temper- abundances. Some genetic and physiological adapta- ature and salinity occur. Large-scale atmospheric tion to temperature and salinity within NIS is possible patterns affect the salinity inflow, water exchange to occur during the twenty-first century, but we have with the North Atlantic and temperature variability no means of assessing it in the present paper and (Leppa¨ranta and Myrberg 2009). The Baltic Sea is therefore adaptation is not taken into account. For this expected to face considerable hydrographical (tem- work, we reviewed from literature the basic physio- perature and salinity) changes due to climate change logical requirements—temperature and salinity—for during the twenty-first century. Projections of the multiple non-indigenous benthic crustaceans, mol- Baltic Sea suggest an increase of the mean air lusks, cirriped, polychaetes and pelagic zooplankton temperature and precipitation between 1969–1998 species. We report here how climate change may in the and 2070–2099, by about 2.7–3.8 °C and 12–18 % long run favour certain species, but also heavily respectively (Meier et al. 2012). reduce some other NIS in the northern Baltic Sea. The Baltic Sea has relatively low biodiversity, and Despite the differences in the species’ background and temperature and salinity are the major environmental in invasion history, all of the selected species are factors regulating the distribution of the biota (Ojaveer established and have already become naturalised in the et al. 2010). Both indigenous and non-indigenous Baltic Sea i.e.
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