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The Howey Political Report Is Published by Newslink Last Tuesday Night, “In Any Other Campaign Year, the Eco- Inc Friday, Nov. 1, 2002 ! Volume 9, Number 14 Page 1 of 9 Dems gird for big The White House guns Howey !"#$%&'( )*+,%-./0-12%1/223-2 By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis Indiana Democrats girded for an onslaught of big Republican guns heading into next Tuesday’s elections as Political possibly four Congressional races were very much in doubt and another three Democratic legislative seats came into play. Report Tuesday’s election seems to have come down to one where guns triumphed over butter. As CBS News reported The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink last Tuesday night, “In any other campaign year, the eco- Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is nomic news could have been disastrous. Seven days from the an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the election, consumer confidence falls to its lowest level in political process in Indiana. almost a decade, but it made barely a ripple in Washington.” Brian A. Howey, publisher Pew Research Center analyst Carroll Doherty noted Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer that voters, “Don’t tend to blame anyone in particular, the Jack E. Howey, editor President or Congress, necessarily for the economic down- turn. They see it as either part of the business cycle or peo- The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 ple still attribute it to the 911 attacks.” PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-968-0487 Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 Hoosiers across Indiana were greeted Thursday night and Friday morning to images of President Bush and Vice [email protected] www.howeypolitics.com President Cheney stumping across the state. WTHR-TV’s John Stehr began Thursday’s newscast showing Air Force Washington office: 202-775-3242; One on the South Bend tarmac and Kevin Rader reported, Business Office: 317-254-0535. “President Bush asked Republicans to work and elect Chris Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or Chocola.” fax; $450 annually including the HPR Daily In Indianapolis this morning, Vice President Dick Wire. Call 317-254-1533 or 254-0535. Cheney told 1,000 Republicans and all four network affili- © 2002, The Howey Political Report. All rights ates, “We know wars are not won on the defensive. The path reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or to safety is action.” While that was in reference to the War reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- on Terror, it will probably be seen as a clarion call to get out tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the vote for 7th CD challenger Brose McVey, who Cheney consent of the publisher. said “is on the course to a great victory on Tuesday.” “The way to defeat international terrorism is to Ticker: Rokita-Fernandez debate p. 2 focus on the most immediate threat. After Nov. Indiana ready for recounts p. 4 5, there will be a lot more understanding of Columnists: Rothenberg, Brown p. 6 Horse Race: Indiana House roundup; what the future holds.” Secretary of State; CD preview p. 8 - U.S. Rep. John Hostettler Friday, Nov. 1, 2002 Page 2 of 9 NETWORKS TO REFRAIN CALLING RACES UNTIL POLLS CLOSE: While con- trol of both houses of Congress is up for grabs in next week's elections, U.S. television networks' news divisions also have some- thing vital at stake -- their credibility (Reuters). Still smarting from bungled cov- erage of the 2000 presiden- tial race, when they predict- ed different outcomes three different times on Election Night, the networks are pledging greater caution in In South Bend, the president deliv- on campaigning for Mike Sodrel. It looks reporting House and Senate ered a 25-minute speech to a friendly like Mike Sodrel is the candidate who will races that could alter the crowd of more than 5,000 at an airport say anything to get elected." balance of power in rally, seeking to win political support at Washington. In one historic departure from past election home in his role of party leader and talk- Taut races coverage, news executives ing tough about Saddam Hussein in his Across Indiana, several polls at broadcast networks ABC, role as the nation's leader (Jack Colwell, released over the past two days show a CBS and NBC and the cable South Bend Tribune). The partisan crowd number of dead heats. An Indianapolis outlets Fox News Channel cheered for both messages. Chants of Star/WTHR-TV poll shows U.S. Rep. and CNN have pledged to "USA, USA" broke out when the presi- Julia Carson leading McVey 43-42 (Oct. refrain from calling the win- dent declared: "Our No. 1 priority will be ners of any race next 29-30), and an HPR/TeleResearch Poll to protect you because there is an enemy Tuesday until all the polls in (Oct. 26-29) had McVey leading 46-42. that state have closed. out there which hates America. They hate But both polls were taken prior to what we stand for. And we're not chang- Carson’s walkout on a Meridian Hills ROKITA, FERNANDEZ ing what we stand for. We love freedom." Kiwanis Club debate Wednesday. HAMMER EACH OTHER IN In introducing the president, Chocola A South Bend Tribune-WSBT Poll TV DEBATE: Indiana's sec- remarked: "Aren't we fortunate that he is released this morning showed Chocola retary of state candidates here today?" leading Democrat Jill Long Thompson for squared off Thursday night The scenes are expected to play out on who's more capable of the first time, 49-46 percent. tackling "corporate crime" again today as Bush journeys to All three surveys were within the (John Martin, Evansville Louisiville to campaign for 9th CD margin of error and statistical ties. Courier & Press). Democrat Republican Mike Sodrel, who appears to In two races that appear on the sur- John Fernandez, the mayor have narrowed the gap against U.S. Rep. face to have tightened, the Hill-Sodrel of Bloomington, Republican Baron Hill. The Democrat’s campaign race in the 9th CD and the Bryan Hartke Todd Rokita, deputy secre- tried to stem the unprecented tide, with challenge to U.S. Rep. John Hostettler in tary of state; and Libertarian spokesman Scott Downes saying, “The the Bloody 8th CD, there is no reliable Rebecca Sink-Burris, a busi- nesswoman and former president was never coming to southern polling available. National and state Indiana, the White House made that clear Democrats rushed resources into the 8th Continued on page 3 to us, and he certainly was never focused to pump up the previously anemically Page 3 of 9 Friday, Nov. 1, 2002 funded Hartke, with national Republicans "If I seem rather upset, you are looking at sources spinning HPR that Hostettler still somebody who is extremely hurt by this had a double-digit lead. In the 9th CD, the campaign," Carson told the stunned audi- presumption was that the White House ence as McVey and Libertarian Andrew and the RNCC saw enough vulnerability Horning looked on. "I don't think I have in Hill’s status to commit the highest of ever in my life seen the political decay, resources -- President Bush. the lowest common denominator, that has teacher, appeared on On the legislative level, three new been applied by my Republican opponent "Shively & Shoulders" on races appear to have come into play -- in this particular race. I don't feel comfort- WNIN-PBS9. Fernandez and Democratically held HD30 between Rep. able being in the same room with him. If Rokita have hammered Ron Herrell and Republican Lynn you will pardon me, I'm now leaving.” away at one another in recent television ads. Rudolph, HD37 between Rep. Scott Reske With polls suggesting a dead heat, the assumption was that Carson was seek- Fernandez accuses the sec- and Republican Rob Steele, and HD72 retary of state office of ing to motivate her legendary ground beween Rep. William Cochran and "dragging its feet" into the Republican Ryan Bergman, who claims he organization that has won 23 elections. investigation of the merger will have the support of the NRA and But the speculation was that in seeking to of IPALCO Enterprises Inc., Right to Life organizations. dramatically activate her base, Carson an Indianapolis utility com- When HPR ran into House Minor- risked alienating critical undecided inde- pany, and AES Corp. of ity Leader Brian Bosma on Tuesday, he pendents. Arlington, Va. Several IPAL- smiled and said he agreed with HPR’s HPR/TeleResearch polling had CO employees say they lost shown over the past two weeks that savings, but said the com- Indiana House assessment last week -- 52- pany made millions because 48 -- but added, “It’s just in the other Carson was losing significant support of Democratic males (thus, the USS of the merger. "We need to direction.” be asking some very seri- Indianapolis TV ad). It also noted that With the guns appearing to have ous questions," Fernandez won out over the butter in the issues among African-Americans, President said Thursday. Rokita said dynamic, the tightening races involving Bush’s approval rating was at 34 percent, Fernandez should not politi- when normally a Republican president Congressional and legislative Democrats, cize the IPALCO matter. The would have been in the single digits. The and the commitment of the big White current secretary of state, Star reported, “But 10 percent remain Republican Sue Anne House guns that will dominate media cov- undecided -- and that, pollster Nick Gilroy, opened an investiga- erage through Sunday, the best guess is Panagakis said, could mean trouble for tion July 31. "One of us is that there is at least a mild GOP wave Carson.” TeleResearch pollster Jeff Lewis falling down in the polls and beginning to break in Indiana.
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