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Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School 2002 A state-of-the-practice review of hurricane evacuation plans and policies Elba Alicia Urbina Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons Recommended Citation Urbina, Elba Alicia, "A state-of-the-practice review of hurricane evacuation plans and policies" (2002). LSU Master's Theses. 136. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/136 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A STATE-OF-THE-PRACTICE REVIEW OF HURRICANE EVACUATION PLANS AND POLICIES A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering in The Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering by Elba Alicia Urbina B.S., Louisiana State University, 1998 May 2002 Dedication I would like to dedicate my thesis to my loving parents, Carlos and Elba Urbina, whom have been my most important role model for combining an intellectual life with a vital spiritual devotion to Jesus Christ. I love you, mom and dad, with all my heart and thank you both for a lifetime of support. This accomplishment is as much yours as it is mine. ii Acknowledgments There are several people who played a key role in helping me accomplished this personal goal. First, I would like to express my appreciation to my family and friends for their thoughts, prayers, and words of encouragement. Of special mention in this list is my brother, Carlos Francisco Urbina, for his unconditional love and support through the years. Second, I want to thank my thesis committee chairman and friend, Dr. Brian Wolshon, for his invaluable counsel and advice during my years as a graduate student at LSU. I am also graceful for his time, patience and constant encouragement. Each of my thesis committee members contributed uniquely to this study. Dr. Marc Levitan planted the idea in my mind to carry this material into print. He also helped me developed the structure of this thesis and provided me with helpful feedback. Dr. Chester Wilmot provided me with technical assistance and excellent editorial suggestions. My gratitude is also due to all the survey respondents without whose assistance this thesis would not have been possible. Their time and effort are greatly appreciated. I would also like to thank those who through many emails and phone conversations provided me with helpful information and pointed me in the right direction. Last, I wish to thank my brothers and sisters from my home church in Panama, Primera Iglesia Bautista Libre de Panama, for their many prayers and words of encouragement. Also in this list are the ladies of many bible studies in Baton Rouge and Dallas for their prayers and encouragement. iii Table of Contents Dedication........................................................................................................................ ii Acknowledgments..........................................................................................................iii List of Tables................................................................................................................. vii List of Figures ..............................................................................................................viii Abstract .......................................................................................................................... ix Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 1.1 BACKGROUND ......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT............................................................................................. 3 1.3 RESEARCH GOALS AND OBJECTIVES ....................................................................... 4 1.3.1 Goals................................................................................................................ 4 1.3.2 Objectives ........................................................................................................ 4 Chapter 2. Methodology ................................................................................................ 5 2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW PROCEDURE .......................................................................... 5 2.2 SURVEY OF STATE HURRICANE EVACUATION PRACTICES AND PROCEDURES ......... 8 Chapter 3. Literature Review...................................................................................... 10 3.1 THREATS ............................................................................................................... 12 3.2 CASUALTIES .......................................................................................................... 14 3.3 ACCURACY OF FORECASTS.................................................................................... 15 3.4 POPULATION GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT ON COAST ......................................... 21 3.5 METEOROLOGY ..................................................................................................... 22 3.6 HISTORICAL REVIEW OF EVACUATIONS ................................................................ 23 3.6.1 Pre 1900......................................................................................................... 23 3.6.2 The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 ................................................................. 24 3.6.3 1901-1939...................................................................................................... 26 3.6.4 1940-1969...................................................................................................... 27 3.6.5 1970-1997...................................................................................................... 28 3.6.6 1998-Current.................................................................................................. 30 3.6.7 Georges.......................................................................................................... 31 3.6.8 Floyd.............................................................................................................. 32 3.7 HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF HURRICANE EVACUATIONS AND EVACUATION RESEARCH ................................................................................................................... 34 3.8 EVACUATION MODELING ...................................................................................... 36 3.9 HURRICANE EVACUATION PLANNING.................................................................... 39 3.10 NEW METHODS USED IN RECENT HURRICANE EVACUATIONS ............................ 41 3.10.1 Contraflow Operations ................................................................................ 41 3.10.2 ITS Applications.......................................................................................... 45 3.11 THE EVACUATION PROCESS ................................................................................ 48 iv 3.11.1 Levels V and IV Activation......................................................................... 50 3.11.2 Level III Activation ..................................................................................... 50 3.11.3 Level II Activation....................................................................................... 51 3.11.4 Level I Activation........................................................................................ 51 Chapter 4. Analysis of the Hurricane Evacuation Practices ................................... 53 4.1 HURRICANE OPERATIONS PLAN ............................................................................ 54 4.2 AUTHORITY AND COMMAND STRUCTURE ............................................................. 56 4.3 EVACUATION IMPLEMENTATION TIME .................................................................. 58 4.4 TYPES OF EVACUATION ......................................................................................... 61 4.5 LOW MOBILITY GROUPS ....................................................................................... 65 4.6 USE OF PUBLIC TRANSIT IN EVACUATIONS............................................................ 67 4.7 CONTRAFLOW........................................................................................................ 69 4.7.1 Strategies ....................................................................................................... 74 4.7.2 Operational Issues.......................................................................................... 82 4.7.3 Contraflow Implementation Time ................................................................. 90 4.7.4 Ending Contraflow Operations...................................................................... 91 4.8 USE OF ITS FOR EVACUATION............................................................................... 95 4.9 PUBLIC INFORMATION VIA INTERNET.................................................................. 101 4.10 WORK ZONES ...................................................................................................
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