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An Integrated Approach on Land Use, Energy Systems, Economy and Greenhouse Gases Emissions

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An Integrated Approach on Land Use, Energy Systems, Economy and Greenhouse Gases Emissions UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica PEDRO GERBER MACHADO Sustainable development potentials and pathways for biobased economy options: an integrated approach on land use, energy systems, economy and greenhouse gases emissions. Potenciais de desenvolvimento sustentável e caminhos para opções de economia biobased: uma abordagem integrada sobre o uso da terra, sistemas de energia, economia e emissões de gases de efeito estufa. CAMPINAS 2017 PEDRO GERBER MACHADO Sustainable development potentials and pathways for biobased economy options: an integrated approach on land use, energy system, economy and greenhouse gases emissions. Potenciais de desenvolvimento sustentável e caminhos para opções de economia biobased: uma abordagem integrada sobre o uso da terra, sistemas de energia, economia e emissões de gases de efeito estufa. Thesis presented to the School of Mechanical Engineering of the University of Campinas in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor in Energy systems planning. Tese de Doutorado apresentada à Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica da Universidade Estadual de Campinas como parte dos requisitos exigidos para obtenção do título de Doutor em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos. Orientador: Dr. Marcelo Pereira da Cunha Co-orientadores: Dr. Arnaldo Cesar da Silva Walter Dr. André Petrus Cornelis Faaij ESTE EXEMPLAR CORRESPONDE À VERSÃO FINAL DA TESE DEFENDIDA PELO(A) ALUNO(A) PEDRO GERBER MACHADO, E ORIENTADA PELO(A) PROF(A). DR(A) MARCELO PEREIRA DA CUNHA ....................................................................... ASSINATURA DO(A) ORIENTADOR(A) CAMPINAS 2017 UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS FACULDADE DE ENGENHARIA MECÂNICA COMISSÃO DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ENGENHARIA MECÂNICA PLANEJAMENTO DE SISTEMAS ENERGÉTICOS DEPARTAMENTO DE ENERGIA TESE DE DOUTORADO Sustainable development potentials and pathways for biobased economy options: an integrated approach on land use, energy system, economy and greenhouse gases emissions. Potenciais de desenvolvimento sustentável e caminhos para opções de economia biobased: uma abordagem integrada sobre o uso da terra, sistemas de energia, economia e emissões de gases de efeito estufa. Autor: Pedro Gerber Machado Orientador: Dr. Marcelo Pereira da Cunha Co-orientadores: Dr. Arnaldo Cesar da Silva Walter Dr. André Petrus Cornelis Faaij A Banca Examinadora composta pelos membros abaixo aprovou esta Tese: Prof. Dr. Marcelo Pereira da Cunha, Presidente UNICAMP Prof. Dr. Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho ESALQ/USP Prof. Dr. José Maria Ferreira Jardim da Silveira UNICAMP Prof. Dr. Sérgio Almeida Pacca USP Profa. Dra. Telma Teixeira Franco UNICAMP A Ata da defesa com as respectivas assinaturas dos membros encontra-se no processo de vida acadêmica do aluno. Campinas, 19 de junho de 2017. AGRADECIMENTOS Agradeço àqueles que vieram antes de mim, e construíram a ciência necessária para esta tese. Agradeço aos que morreram para construir o conhecimento, mesmo diante dos maiores desafios. Agradeço aos meus orientadores e co-orientadores, em especial ao Marcelo, pela paciência e amizade. Agradeço a minha família Cristina e Cassia, por sempre estarem do meu lado. Agradeço aos amigos do PSE, da UNICAMP. Agradeço aos amigos Carolina, Flávio, Yasmin, Daniele, Adriano, André, Leonardo por todo o apoio. Agradeço à FAPESP pelo apoio financeiro ao projeto do qual esta tese faz parte. Agradeço ao CNPq pelo financiamento da bolsa de doutorado. Agradeço às copeiras da UNICAMP pela alimentação diária. RESUMO Os combustíveis fósseis dominam a oferta atual de energia e produtos químicos e isso leva a um rápido crescimento das emissões globais de gases de efeito estufa (GEE). Uma opção de mitigação é usar matéria-prima renovável para materiais, produtos químicos e principalmente energia. Este estudo desenvolve e demonstra uma estrutura de modelagem interligando os modelos de Equilíbrio Geral Computacional e Insumo-produto, que permitem analisar os impactos sobre aspectos macro e socioeconômicos, emissões de GEE e uso de energia não renovável, de forma integrada para diferentes cenários futuros de implantação da economia baseada em biomassa. A análise foi feita para os produtos químicos e para bioenergia. Três cenários para o ano de 2030 foram comparar os diferentes níveis de produção (quantidade de produtos químicos e produção de energia através de fósseis versus biomassa) para o Brasil, com base na cana-de-açúcar, soja e florestas (eucalipto e pinus). Diferentes níveis tecnológicos também são considerados nesta tese. Dois importantes aspectos metodológicos desta tese são o apoio financeiro fornecido pelo governo para permitir que a bioeconomia se desenvolva, por meio de subsídios, e as limitações de uso da terra estabelecidas pela necessidade de reduzir as emissões. Os resultados mostram que a escolha de uma bioeconomia no Brasil gera uma ligeira redução do PIB devido a mudanças nas componentes de demanda final que a integram (Casa, governo, exportações e importações), de 0,067% no BBE 1 para 0,43% no BBE 2 O consumo do governo cai 1,4% no BBE 2 e, considerando que o consumo do governo está voltado para os serviços públicos, a queda no consumo do governo se traduz diretamente na redução da oferta de serviços públicos para a sociedade brasileira. Após o consumo do governo vem os investimentos, que cai após uma queda na poupança externa. Com a diminuição das importações, focada em matéria-prima fóssil e produtos fósseis, o Brasil reduziria sua dependência de matérias-primas e insumos estrangeiros em um cenário de bioeconomia. As mudanças no emprego vêm com a redução geral da atividade econômica, concentrada especialmente no setor público. Aumentos na taxa de desemprego de 3,87 para 3,92% em BBE 1 e 3,96% em BBE 2 são projetados. O aumento da demanda de terra impõe um aumento no preço da terra de 23% no BBE 1 e de 32% no BBE 2. Esses aumentos têm impactos nos preços de produtos que dependem da terra (agricultura), que afeta negativamente o consumo de alimentos das famílias Focada em atender produtos (bovinos, suínos e aves). No nível regional, são percebidos diferentes resultados. Quando se trata de emissões, o Brasil está empenhado em atingir 1,2 GtCO2-eq em 2030, com vários mecanismos estabelecidos na iNDC. O cenário referência, que tenta incorporar o mais próximo possível as ações propostas na iNDC, mostra que as emissões atingem 1,7 GtCO2-eq e que uma bioeconomia poderia reduzir 1% dessas emissões no cenário atual. As emissões mostram que se deve prestar muito mais atenção à mudança de uso da terra e ao setor florestal. A energia renovável tem um papel importante na redução das emissões, em qualquer cenário. O aumento de 202 para 235 e para 249 x106 tep em energia renovável nos cenários BBE é um passo importante para a independência energética e para preservar as reservas fósseis. Os processos nos biosse- tores, no entanto, não são ainda mais eficientes, uma vez que o uso total de energia passa de 481 x 106 tep no cenário BAU para 509 x106 tep no cenário BBE 2. Palavras-chave: Bioeconomia, sustentabilidade, modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, modelo de insumo-produto, emissões de GEE. ABSTRACT Fossil fuels dominate the current energy and chemicals’ supply and this leads to a rapid growth in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. One mitigation option is using renewable feedstock for materials, chemicals and mostly energy. This study develops and demonstrates a modelling framework interlinking Computable General Equilibrium and Input-Output models, which allow the analysis of the impacts on macro and socioeconomic aspects, GHG emissions and non-renewable energy use, in an integrated way for different future scenarios for deployment of biobased economy. The analysis was done for chemicals and for energy carriers. Three scenarios for 2030 were used to compare different levels of production (amount of chemicals and energy production through fossils versus biomass) for Brazil, based on sugarcane, soy and forest crops (eucalyptus and pine). Different technological levels are also considered in this thesis. Two important methodological aspects of this thesis are the financial support provided by the government to enable the bioeconomy to develop, through subsidies, and the limitations in land use established by the need to reduce emissions. Results show that the choice of a bioeconomy in Brazil generates a slight reduction in GDP due to changes in the components of final demand that integrate it (Household, government, exports and imports), from 0.067% in BBE 1 to 0.43% in BBE 2. Government consumption falls 1.4% in the BBE 2, and, considering that government consumption is focused on public services, the decrease in government consumption translates directly into reduction of public services provision to the Brazilian society. Following government consumption comes the investments, which drops following a drop in foreign savings. With decrease of imports, focused on fossil feedstock and fossil-based products, Brazil would reduce its dependency in foreign feedstocks and inputs in a bioeconomy scenario. Changes in employment come with the overall reduction in economic activity, concentrated especially in the public sector. Increases in the unemployment rate from 3.87 to 3.92% in BBE 1 and 3.96 % in BBE 2 are projected. The increase in land demand imposes an increase in land prices of 23% in BBE 1, and 32% in BBE 2. These increases have impacts on the prices of products that depend on land (agriculture), which affects household food consumption negatively, mostly focused on meet products (cattle, pork and poultry). In the regional level, different results are perceived. When it comes to emissions, Brazil is committed to reach 1.2 GtCO2-eq in 2030, with several mechanisms established in the iNDC (Brasil 2015). Business-as-usual, which attempts to incorporate as closely as possible the proposed actions in the iNDC, shows that emissions reach 1.7 GtCO2-eq, and that a bioeconomy could reduce 1% of these emissions in the current scenario. Emissions show that much more attention should be paid to the land use change and forestry sector. Renewable energy has an important role in emissions reductions, in any scenario.
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