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NBER Reporter Online, Volume 1982 A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) Periodical Part NBER Reporter Online, Volume 1982 NBER Reporter Online Provided in Cooperation with: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, Mass. Suggested Citation: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) (1982) : NBER Reporter Online, Volume 1982, NBER Reporter Online, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, MA This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/62102 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC. FALL 1982 Program Report Productivity and Industrial Change in the World Economy With the financial support of theAlfred P. Sloan Foun­ dation, the Andrew Mellon Foundation, and the National Science Foundation, NBER recently launched an ex­ tensive, four-year project on "Productivity and Indus­ trial Change in the World Economy." During the past decade, advances in European and Asian economies have drastically altered the uniquely dominant position of U.S. industries in both domestic and world markets; the experience of the American automobile and steel industries has been particularly painfLifLearning to function effectively in this new economic environment is probably the most important challenge facing the .U.S. economy for the decades ahead. For this reason, the Bureau's project seeks to understand the nature and likelyevolution ofthechang­ ing pattern of comparative advantage and to study the response of both U.S. and foreign economies to that change. The basic research in this project will focus on inter­ national and interindustry patterns of productivity growth, technological change, and trade. Specifically, the work will fall into six areas: 1. Relative changes in productivity (between coun­ tries and industries); 2. trade response to changing patterns of compara­ development. Special attention will be given to the tive advantage; problem of measuri ng productivity improvement when 3. domestic responses to changing patterns of com- changes in the product itself are an important part of parative advantage; the improvement process. Also, project researchers 4. the role of exchange rates; will consider the extent to which competition and gov­ 5. trade barriers; and ernment regulation affect product change and produc­ 6. international capital flows. tivity improvement. In addition to general studies of the The productivity component of the project will in­ issues, several case studies of specific industries will clude an examination of the reasons for the interna­ be developed (for example, automobiles and consumer tional and interindustry differences in productivity electronics). growth, including the contributions of capital accumu­ The second topic in the project, trade responses, will lation, labor relations, and spending on research and encom pass two types of question: (1) H ow closely are The National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit productivity differences reflected in differen'ces in research organization founded in 1920 and devoted to objective quan­ comparative advantage? (2) How has the pattern of titative analysis of the American economy. Its officers and board of directors are: world trade developed (and will it develop) in responsf to the changing patterns of technology and compara~ Chairman-Walter W. Heller tive advantage? Vice Chairman-Franklin A. Lindsay Treasurer-Charles A. Walworth In the third section, researchers will look closely at the different experiences of countries in an attempt to President-Eli Shapiro Executive Director-David Hartman understand which pOlicies, designed to accommodate Director of Finance and Administration-Sam Parker shifts in competitive advantage, work and why. They will also try to understand the natural market responses by which firms seek to protectthemselves in a changing DIRECTORS AT LARGE environment, and to what extent government policies Moses Abramovitz James J. O'Leary prevent natural responses in the private sector. As part George T. Conklin, Jr. Peter G. Peterson of this topic, an international comparison of the steel Morton Ehrlich Robert V. Roosa industry will be done. The steel industry was selected Edward L. Ginzton Richard N. Rosett David L. Grove Bert Seidman because of its size and because so many domesticsteel walter W. Heller Eli Shapiro industries have lost their ability to compete with steel Franklin A. Lindsay Stephen Stamas imports. Roy E. Moor Lazare Teper The fourth section of the project will consider what Geoffrey H. Moore Donald S. Wasserman Michael H. Moskow Marina v. N. Whitman causes major shifts in real exchange rates, how such shifts affect the pattern of world trade, and why changes in the exchange rate appear to affect the domestic price DIRECTORS BY UNIVERSITY APPOINTMENT level in Europe but the level of exports and imports in the United States. The experience with floating rates in Charles H. Berry, Princeton the past decade has made it clear that rates among Otto Eckstein, Harvard Walter D. Fisher, Northwestern countries do not automatically adjust to achieve a bal­ J. C. LaForce, California, Los Angeles ance of trade or current account. Like other financial Paul McCracken, Michigan assets, currencies fluctuate in response to expecta­ Daniel McFadden, Massachusetts Institute of Technology tions and shifts in investors' preferences. Changes in Almarin Phillips, Pennsylvania exchange rates not offset by changes in relative do­ James L. Pierce, California, Berkeley James Tobin, Yale mestic price levels (that is, changes in real rates) can Nathan Rosenberg, Stanford have a major impact on international competitiveness. James Simler, Minnesota The Japanese appear to have been particularly ef­ William S. Vickrey, Columbia fective in using trade barriers-in their case, a com­ Dudley Wallace, Duke Burton A. Weisbrod, Wisconsin bination of domestic protection and export promotion Arnold Zellner, Chicago -to develop industries in which they have a strong comparative advantage. The fifth section's research on the subject will ask: What is the effect of trade barriers DIRECTORS BY APPOINTMENT OF OTHER ORGANIZATIONS on the U.S. economy? I n the years ahead, trade barriers Carl F. Christ, American Economic Association may be used increasingly in response to import pressures Robert C. Holland, Committee for Economic Development or in an attempt to imitate the Japanese. Further research Stephan F. Kaliski, Canadian Economics Association will thus ask: How should the magnitude of nontariff Albert G. Matamoros, National Association of Business Economists barriers be measured and what lessons should be learned Douglass C. North, Economic History Association from the Japanese export promotion experience? Rudolph A. Oswald, American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations The final area of research in the project is "I nter­ Joel Popkin, American Statistical Association national Capital Flows." International capital flows, G. Edward Schuh, American Agricultural Economics Association including direct investments as well as portfolio invest­ Albert T. Sommers, The Conference Board ments, are the necessary counterparts to trade imbal­ James C. Van Horne, American Finance Association ances. Research in this area will ask, What determines Charles A. Walworth, American Institute of Certified Public Accountants the extent and direction of these international capital flows? How do they affect the patterns of trade? For example, how have OPEC surpluses permitted the newly Contributions to the National Bureau are tax deductible. Inquiries industrialized countries to borrow more readily than concerning contributions may be addressed to Arthur D. Clarke, Di­ they otherwise could, thereby increasing their demand rector of Development, National Bureau of Economic Research,l nc., 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA. 02138. for U.S. capital goods?Whatwould happen if the United ' -1. , I' The Reporter is issued for informational purposes and has not States became a net capital importer in the next several " I been reviewed by the Board of Directors of NBER. It is not copyright­ decades? How do the different structures of financial J ed and can be freely reproduced with appropriate attribution of source. markets among countries facilitate or impede interna­ Preparation of the NBER Reporter is under the supervision
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