Transport for a Global Economy Challenges & Opportunities in the Downturn

20 Forum 09 Highlights

20 Forum 09 Highlights

Transport for a Global Economy Challenges & Opportunities in the Downturn

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Photo credits: © Marco Urban, OECD/ITF – © stock.xchng © mkarstad, stock.xchng, page 61 table of contents

INTrodUCTIoN

The International Transport Forum 4 A Look Back at the Forum by Jack Short 6 Binali Yıldırım: A Key Element of Economic Growth 8 Wolfgang tiefensee: A Great Opportunity to Choose the Future Direction 10

ChallENGEs & opporTUNITIEs IN ThE doWNTUrN

Highlights of the Keynote by Jacques Attali: Lessons Learnt from the Crisis 14 Highlights of the Keynote by Ray lahood: A Co-operative Approach 16 Highlights of the Keynote by Antonio tajani: The European Response to the Crisis 18 Key Messages from the Ministerial Session 20

polICY paNEls

Transport and the Downturn – Economic Impacts 24 Transport and the Downturn – Social & Environmental Impacts 30 Supply Chains and the Gateways in Volatile Markets 36 Infrastructure: Public and Private Roles after the Credit Crunch 40 International Leaders’ Roundtable – Moving the Agenda Forward 46 Workshops

Intermodal Transport & Supply Chains – Moving the Global Economy 54 Social Impacts of International Transportation 58 Strategic Transport Infrastructure Planning & Financing 62 Ensuring a Secure Global Transport System 68 Environmental Impacts of International Transport 74

Modal Workshops

Gateway Airport Investment and Development of Airline Services 80 Road Transport: Promoting Global Trade, Travel and Development 86 Railways in a Globalised World 90 International Shipping: Global Regulation for a Global Industry 96

A Focal Point of Exchange

Prize-Winners 2009 102 Forum Exhibition 103 Field Visits and Social Programme 104 International Transport Forum 2010 – Transport and Innovation 106 Alphabetic List of Speakers 108 Relevant ITF Publications 110 the international transport Forum A Worldwide Platform for transport Ministers, industry and civil Society A global Response to the challenges of transport

The International Transport Forum is the OECD family. Its members include all OECD leading global platform and meeting place for countries, as well as many countries in transport, logistics and mobility, where the Central and Eastern Europe, and India. In Transport Ministers of 52 member countries addition, China and Brazil are being invited discuss the strategic and policy challenges to participate. The involvement of more than of the sector with key figures from industry, 50 Ministers of Transport ensures direct links research and civil society. The engagement and strong relevance to policy making at both and involvement of such a broad range of national and international levels. The creation actors makes the International Transport of the Forum is a reflection of the need to serve Forum truly unique. not only Ministries, but also society in general in a more relevant and dynamic way. As a Transformed from the European Conference high level think tank for Ministers, industry, of Ministers of Transport (ECMT), the research and civil society, the Forum has the 4 International Transport Forum is an inter- aspiration of filling a crucial missing link in governmental organisation within the transport discussions in our society today.

Observer Countries Member Countries Invited participants The highlight of the International Transport globalisation. The Organisation provides a Forum’s activities is its annual meeting held setting where governments can compare in Leipzig, where key figures from politics, policy experiences, seek answers to common industry, research and civil society are invited problems, identify good practices and work to debate with Transport Ministers on a topic to co-ordinate domestic and international of strategic importance. The conclusions of policies. the annual Forum meetings are expected to act as important signals to the transport The OECD and the International Transport sector and society at large. Forum established a Joint Transport Research Centre in 2004. The Centre conducts co- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation operative research programmes addressing and Development (OECD) is a unique forum all modes of transport to support policy where the governments of 30 democracies making in Member countries and contribute work together to address the economic, to the sessions of the International Transport 5 social and environmental challenges of Forum. Jack Short A look Back at the Forum

When we chose the theme of this year’s jobs, 15% of household spending, 6% of Forum – Transport for a Global Economy – value added – tell only part of the story. our key concerns included bottlenecks and The transport sector is at the heart of capacity limitations due to rapid economic globalisation. Logistics and passenger growth. Barely a year later, the Forum services strongly support trade and took place at a very difficult time, in which economic growth. Beyond that, there is finance had dried up, companies were hardly a global threat or challenge that does Jack Short, failing, supply chains were weakened, and not have a significant transport component, Secretary general protectionism was increasing. Now, there whether it is mass migrations, geopolitical of the international transport Forum are real fears that the transport sector conflicts, natural disasters, health threats (itF), Director of will be seriously damaged by this sudden or piracy. the Joint oEcD/itF and profound downturn, with important transport Research center (JtRc) implications for economies and societies. It is obvious that transport systems need to be reliable and sustainable to support The depth and suddenness of the crisis economic recovery. In this regard, many underlined the relevance of our theme. existing policies remain central in order to We live in a time of unprecedented global invest where needed, improve efficiency, 6 interdependence, which is likely to increase reduce environmental harm and increase further – not decrease – as a result of the safety. Transport has a strong case in financial and economic crisis. Globalisation competing for stimulus funding and indeed has its critics and, certainly, actions has been a major beneficiary in some are needed to minimise any social or countries. It remains to be seen, however, environmental harm due to it; however, the whether the aims to innovate, to redesign evidence is overwhelming on the economic the system and to move to a low-carbon benefits of exchange and trade in reducing economy will be achieved by these stimulus poverty and inequalities. This reinforces packages. the need for improved international co-operation, where the transport sector, A strong message throughout the Forum as a key facilitator, is a central player. was the need to avoid protectionism. The discussions and background papers The discussions this year were thus highly underlined the benefits that the opening topical and came at a point when all of markets has provided in the past, and governments and industry were struggling the risks of trade restrictions in hampering with how best to respond to the crisis in recovery and growth. There are still many both the short and longer terms. areas in transport where considerable new gains could be made by the further One certainty is that transport is more opening of markets. The challenge now important than it has ever been – in for most Countries is to maintain these business, in the lives of citizens and in the sound principles under domestic political world economy. The figures alone – 8% of pressure. Closely linked to this is the need for secure delegates from the more than 50 Members, and reliable international supply chains to India became a full member of the Forum facilitate future growth. Too often borders and there was a strong Chinese presence in and entry points are impediments to trade Leipzig. The Forum once again attracted over or even instruments for protectionism. 900 participants, including many leading Significant scope for improvements remains decision-makers and thinkers from the in many areas of the world and both security transport sector and beyond. The outputs and efficiency benefits can be obtained from the Forum are included or summarised through, for example, greater use of here. They include the Ministerial political risk-based procedures. statement, some reflections from the Secretariat, the conclusions of the various The crisis does not alter fundamental panels and workshops, as well as the challenges, particularly for transport to be scientific studies and background papers more sustainable. The need for transport to for the event. The web site contains all this reduce its greenhouse gas emissions – and material which provides a rich collection of how this might happen – was the subject of the information on the topic. 2008 Forum, and was central to discussions at the 2009 Forum. All modes will need to Many participants in 2009 argued that 7 make progress, though there is still sharp the solutions to the major challenges of the debate on the most effective methods within transport sector – including climate change, and between modes. Undoubtedly transport efficiency, safety, security and accessibility – needs to show more concrete results in the will require seeking out new ways of providing lead up to and after the December 2009 UN services and infrastructure. That is why the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. theme of next year’s Forum – Transport and Innovation – is so exciting and important. The transport sector can assist the global economic recovery by increasing its Turkey has held the presidency of the efficiency and here there is much work to Forum this year and sincere thanks go to be done to help the sector itself overcome Binali Yıldırım, Minister of Transport of the the results of the downturn, as well as to Republic of Turkey, and his staff, for their optimise its contributions to economies and tireless efforts over the year. The dynamic societies. Given the degree of mutual reliance support of Germany, especially the active at the global level, improved international involvement of Minister Tiefensee, but also co-operation will be essential. the city of Leipzig and Lord Mayor Burkhard Jung have been enormously helpful in The International Transport Forum, in this driving the Forum forward. Sincere thanks second year, has taken important strides as well go to the Member Countries and their in its aim to become the global strategic Ministers for their continuing support and meeting place for the transport sector. As involvement in the preparations and running well as the many Ministers and high level of the Forum. Binali Yıldırım A Key Element of Economic Growth

Globalisation of production and trade is the Downturn”, was held at a crucial moment among the defining characteristics of our in history, characterised by great challenges. era. The scale of economic activity is just Transport itself has been heavily affected as impressive as the speed of technological by the global financial crisis. A contracting development, and lower production costs and global economy, frozen credit and increased higher productivity have contributed to the operating costs have led to economic creation of greater wealth today than ever difficulties and job losses across the sector. before. Companies are struggling to survive with Binali Yıldırım, Minister of limited financial resources in an environment Transport of Turkey, Without a doubt, transport is an indispensable where global trade is shrinking. President of the 2009 International part of this process. It provides vital Transport Forum distribution for production, as well as essential We, the Members of the International personal mobility, directly interconnecting Transport Forum, should learn from the businesses to worldwide markets. Transport current crisis, and provide guidance to is a key element of economic growth and our sector in designing and implementing competitiveness. necessary measures to overcome the current difficulties and emerge stronger. 8 Thus, the 2009 International Transport Forum, focusing on “Transport for a Global Domestic demand must be sustained to Economy – Challenges and Opportunities in ensure the crisis does not deepen. Investment 9 in infrastructure to stimulate the economy focus on global transport accessibility and and create jobs has a vital role in responding connections. At the top of the agenda should to the downturn. Many countries, including be the simplification and harmonisation of the developing ones, have put in place stimulus processes at border crossings. packages to support infrastructure projects. We must all share responsibility for preventing We should also look beyond short-term the deepening of the recession. This Forum – measures. Long-term goals are vital, precisely and indeed the 2009 meeting – has already because of the recession. For example, it is played a key role. crucial that the public and private sectors work together to ensure the existence of a modern, The International Transport Forum is a sustainable and efficient transport sector to unique international platform for addressing take advantage of the upturn when it comes. the major issues related to transport. In its capacity as President of the second The crisis should also underscore the International Transport Forum, Turkey is importance of greater international confident that the 2009 Forum has provided co-operation. I truly believe all of us are strong outcomes with regard to maintaining ready to make a combined effort to restore international transport activities and confidence and make our sector less ensuring that the sector continues to fuel the vulnerable. International planning should dynamism of the global economy. Wolfgang tiefensee A great opportunity to choose the Future Direction

The second ITF took place against the In the fora and panels and also during backdrop of the global financial and the numerous bilateral discussions on economic crisis. “Globalisation” had been the sidelines, many nations, including selected as a subject to be discussed at this Germany, confirmed that the economic year’s ITF long before the first signs of the recovery packages were the right solution credit crunch in the US became visible, but for safeguarding as many jobs as possible due to economic developments in the world and paving the way for long-term economic

Wolfgang tiefensee, this subject acquired a new urgency. growth. The green shoots of economic Federal Minister of recovery confirm this. The considerable transport, In the past decades globalisation was mainly financial efforts are at the same time a great Building and Urban Affairs, germany seen as a factor for economic growth. opportunity to choose the future direction of However, during the crisis, another side of the the economy and the transport sector. development became more apparent: Due to the mutual dependence of the markets, the But at the same time, investment in crisis hit national economies everywhere and infrastructure must not just be a flash in led to declining economic performance and a the pan. We must continue our investment considerable reduction of growth. even after the crisis has ended. Because an 10 efficient global infrastructure, and a modern At the ITF in Leipzig, more than 900 transport system are a crucial precondition participants from around 50 states for a lasting economic recovery. discussed this situation and its relevance for the transport sector but they also discussed And consumers have shown that energy- chances and opportunities arising from efficient, green cars have good market the crisis. It was particularly important to opportunities, even in times of economic highlight the contribution that transport can recession. Those who are involved in the make to a globalised world economy. development and commercialisation, will also prevail in global competition. The global economic crisis must not be used as a pretext for protectionism with the aim of Businesses are thus called-upon to continue closing off markets. Economic recovery is only investing in sophisticated environmental possible with free trade and fair competition. technologies and in the skills of their Protectionist measures always rebound on employees, even in times of economic business and the workforce at home. Thus, difficulty. A competition for innovation the discussions at the ITF made it very and environmentally and climate-friendly clear that economic integration can only be products is needed. This requires specific, supported by co-operative behaviour of all targeted investment in new technologies stakeholders. The ITF is headed in the right like electric mobility, supported by a clear- direction, establishing itself as an important cut strategy for the mobility of the future. international Forum for discussing solutions Public and private sectors alike are called- to problems of global relevance. upon to ensure that industry and transport can emerge from this presently difficult most important platform for discussions phase stronger than before. in the transport sector. After India joined the set of ITF member states this year, we Against this background, the entire eagerly await other interested states like spectrum of “Transport and Innovation” will Brazil and China to join us in the future. be the subject of intensive discussions at the third ITF, which will take place from 25-28 Ministers of Transport, government May 2010. representatives from 52 states and industry, scientific and research luminaries I am very glad that in 2010 transport will meet in Leipzig and from there they will ministers will come to Leipzig again to continue to jointly shape the future a little successfully support the ITF as the world’s more.

11 transport for a global Economy challenges & opportunities in the Downturn transport for a global Economy challenges & opportunities in the Downturn highlights of the Keynote by Jacques Attali lessons learnt from the crisis

Transportation is one of the aspects where seen a major downturn: minus 60 to 70% in economic progress has made itself most economic growth in some sectors. However, palpable. Transport is a growth factor but the financial sectors have undergone it also has a curbing impact, it strongly restructuring, exchange prices are rising, affects the environment. Currently, some countries, like China, are starting to transportation is a key to understand the see growth rates again. Billions and billions economic and financial crisis. I tend to be have been spent, banks can return to rather pessimistic when being asked about offering liquidity and take out loans. There Jacques Attali, Economist and Writer the crisis and its prospective duration. I is a certain economic dynamism that is believe it is just beginning. It certainly shows showing itself again and I would really hope various mechanisms taking place on three that this recovery was here to stay. different levels. But what about the cash flow of banks. Is First, let us consider the United States and it sustainable? What about the budgets of the many intricate links between the loan, the major countries and the liquidities and banking, real estate and automobile and cash flow if it is not? The current recovery other consumer industries. The excessive may well not be sustainable. And what about 14 growth of lending capital and taking bad trust in currencies and budgets? The global loans on real estate, for example, was the deficit is currently exploding; there are first mechanism. This, in turn, resulted in excessive debts everywhere, but we know the development of a second mechanism, the that the crisis can only be overcome if we creation of loan pools by banks with extreme call back our debts. profits – but clearly understated risks. The third mechanism was the fact that – on a Bearing these questions in mind, it is not local level – there was no real regulation entirely clear whether we will be able to or control of these developments. Europe, extricate ourselves from this crisis or by contrast, has created a common market whether – due to its magnitude – we will with regulations in the past 30 years. This is resolve it at all. what the world needs today: a single market with one set of regulations. We do not only There are three scenarios worth looking need the legal stipulations, but we also need at. First of all: we may assume that there to enforce their compliance. is a deepening of the crisis; that we will be plunged even deeper into a recession; that We may very well not be witnessing the end the global economy will continue to create of the current crisis. We see mixed signals - zero or even negative growth rates. In some major downturns, but economic growth a second scenario, the heavy borrowing in some other sectors. Financial markets are simply continues, as will debts – with all undergoing a restructuring process, with the negative long-term repercussions. exchange prices rising and some countries Thirdly, we may see another growth period even seeing growth rates again. We have with high saving rates, high degree of savings deposits, always assuming that But these rules where not complied with. So we have high growth rates again – despite we certainly need to improve compliance occasional volatility. and to enforce accountability.

As Europeans, we have learned our lessons If there is a lesson to be learnt from the from history. We understand that we financial crisis for our future it is the fact need to balance our budgets, set rules that unregulated markets will pose a real and regulations to overcome deficits. We problem once we face challenges on an even understand that we do need taxes and larger scale – climate change, for example. regulations – not more but better ones. After all, we have got regulation in place; we Therefore I believe history is going to have the Basel capital accord. But Basel is repeat itself unless we learn the lessons. For not applied accordingly. Banks solvency, for transportation in the crisis this means that example, was regulated in the Basel accord. we need common rules on a global scale, and Basel said that the debt ratio must not exceed also need new transport proposals that are the factor of 12 of the deposit in your bank. compatible with tomorrow’s challenges.

15 highlights of the Keynote by Ray lahood A co-operative Approach

As we all know, we are facing a number of economic development at home, and our serious challenges around the world. For participation in international trade abroad. instance, the global credit crunch makes The American Recovery and Reinvestment it difficult for all of us to sustain our Act, which President Obama signed into law investments in the transport infrastructure three months ago, is a ground-breaking, that we depend on to move people and goods 787-billion-dollar effort to stimulate the around the world. U.S. economy through targeted short-term Ray lahood, investments in infrastructure, energy, tax U.S. Secretary of The way forward is through cooperative relief, and other vital areas. The Recovery transportation agreements on research and technology, Act awarded 48 billion dollars to the U.S. mutually enforced standards to enhance Department of Transportation for new security and environmental practices in investments in roads, bridges, transit the global supply chain, effective guidance systems, seaports, airports, and other and training to help the maritime industry critical infrastructure. This is a remarkable combat piracy and a continuing commitment and historic effort, and we’re managing it to opening our borders to free trade. This with great efficiency. is only the beginning. Achieving these goals 16 will not be easy. And we will not agree on As a result of our efforts, the Recovery Act everything. But we are inter-dependent – has so far succeeded in pumping nearly now more than ever. Our economic ups and 13 billion dollars in transportation funding downs ripple across the continents. directly into our economy, with billions more to follow. These federal funds allow Our decisions on energy policy and fuel all 50 states to make much-needed repairs efficiency affect market prices for oil – and and upgrades to roads, bridges, transit the rate of climate change. As President systems, port facilities, airport runways Obama said recently: “The history of a nation and more. A portion of the funds support is not about things coming easy. It’s about cleaner, greener transit vehicles that reduce rising to the moment when the moment is greenhouse gas emissions. hard, converting crisis into opportunity, and seeing to it that we emerge from whatever These are investments that most states trials we face stronger than we were before.” simply cannot afford to make on their own due to budget cuts. So the federal government I believe all of us here today share this is truly stimulating local economies – and commitment. This forum is an excellent saving or creating thousands of good paying place to carry on this work. jobs. Many of those jobs are “green” jobs.

In the United States, we are responding to The Recovery Act also breaks new ground our challenges with short- and long-term for America, in the area of high-speed strategies to ensure that our transport and passenger rail. President Obama has systems continue to play a vital role in our committed more than eight billion dollars to new and revitalised passenger rail corridors We’re also expediting critical port development across the country. This is by far the largest projects to help freight flow more easily. And we single federal investment in passenger rail are investing a hundred million dollars to enhance in our nation’s history. small shipyards under the Recovery Act.

Looking ahead, we recognise that the U.S. In aviation, our top priority is our NextGen must do even more to develop a diverse, program, which will modernise and transform environmentally sustainable, multi-modal our air traffic control system for the 21st transportation network to keep our century. NextGen is needed to make aviation economy moving and make our communities safer, more efficient – and environmentally more liveable. sustainable. Ambitious energy goals to reduce emissions and noise pollution are a The President recently announced plans major part of this effort. But as we know, to substantially reduce greenhouse gas our environmental issues do not stop at our emissions and raise fuel economy standards borders. That is why it’s good to see that the for passenger cars and light duty trucks, European Community has made progress on beginning in model year 2012. This is a SESAR – the counterpart to NextGen. serious push to make transportation much 17 cleaner and greener in the United States. The United States, Europe, and Asia must set an example by fighting climate change In the freight rail industry, we are in the effectively, and setting the pace for leadership process of developing new national freight and innovation in all modes of transportation. transportation corridors that will help us Let us work together to enhance those make better use of trucks, barges, and rails connections, and use transportation to unite across North America. our nations in peace and prosperity. highlights of the Keynote by Antonio tajani the European Response to the crisis

No one can deny the direct connection that and also cover the Mediterranean between the financial crisis and transport. countries beyond the EU, the countries on All operators are facing the same issues; our eastern borders of the EU and also the crisis has had its impact on every sector. Africa. The demand for transport, especially in the freight sector, has declined dramatically; 48 billion dollars are expended for prices are falling while the cost of infrastructure in the US, a spectacular infrastructure use is increasing. amount; much more than we spend here. Antonio tajani, Vice-President, But let’s evaluate what we have been European commission However, the ability to transport our goods able to mobilise in our European budget, quickly and efficiently is a prerequisite whether by the communitarian budget for growth. Ever since the beginning of the or the European Investment Bank, and crisis, I have said that we need to respond by also look at the considerable investments investing in transport and infrastructure, on the member state level. We have the an area that represents 10% of jobs in European Union’s Stability and Growth Europe. But of course, this is not enough. pact, to address the immediate crisis. We must also anticipate future capacities We are trying to be a catalyst for 18 and increase European competitiveness in investment, helping the financial market the sector. and companies. This is why we increased the capital of the European Investment All of us here share the belief that transport Bank and initiated the Marguerite 2020 is a key sector of the economy. That is why European fund for energy, climate change investment in transport infrastructure and infrastructure, which will invest in ranks so high in the economic stimulus member states’ environmental, energy and packages that European countries intend transport infrastructures. Of course, we to implement. We need to focus and we need also encourage the private sector to get to make those infrastructure investments, involved, for example through PPPs. both for projects that are already in the pipeline or under construction, and for In the year 2009 we have been able to future ones. allocate 500 million Euros for shovel-ready projects on the Trans-European transport Nevertheless, I also strongly believe network (TEN-T), whose leverage on public that this crisis is also an opportunity – finances is estimated at 5 billion euros. if we follow a co-ordinated strategy at In addition, the annual and multi-annual operational, financial and political level. As budget for TEN-T foresees 500 million this is a global crisis, we should not act in a Euros for 2009. protectionist manner; we shouldn’t create a fortress around us. Coordinated strategies In this context, the Commission this year can’t simply stop at the borders of the has committed to a revision of the TEN-T European Union. We should look beyond policy. For this, we proposed a Community- wide approach, based on a truly European I am convinced that this crisis represents and multimodal plan. This will allow for an an opportunity for the sector. I think we intelligent management of transport flows, can no longer afford to procrastinate. for example through the widespread use It must be recognised once for all that of intelligent traffic management systems investment in transport is an important and ERTMS. means to foster economic growth. Finally, in the long term, transport has to be That said, for the revision of the TEN-T assigned its rightful place in the State policy to succeed, it will be necessary to budget and states should continue to mobilise more resources, on the national coordinate their resources. and European level, from public as well as private sources. We are co-operating The crisis calls for a global response. The closely with the European Investment Bank European Community stands ready to on this. assume its role.

19 Key Messages from the Ministerial Session

is a crucial prerequisite for a successful economy and social well-being. Transport investment can form an important part of well designed stimulus packages provided it is properly prioritised on the basis of a rigorous evaluation, capable of being quickly implemented and contributes to sustainability objectives.

Trade and open markets are keys to global recovery. Protectionist measures are not a sustainable solution. Where markets have been opened, there have been substantial benefits to economies and citizens. The current economic downturn will not Transport Ministers met with industry reverse the underlying trend to increased stakeholders, research and civil society globalisation and international division of 20 representatives at the 2009 International labour. The process of market opening and Transport Forum: transport for a global competition needs to be continued, while Economy – challenges and opportunities addressing equity and improving quality, in the Downturn. Key Messages emerging safety and environmental standards. from the Ministerial discussion emphasised the importance of: Economic recovery in the transport sector should be environmentally sustainable. • efficient transport systems and sound Agreement at the UN Climate Change investments; Conference (COP15) in Copenhagen and in • maintaining progress towards open other organisations such as IMO and ICAO, markets; should enhance international actions for the • addressing unintended environmental mitigation of transport emissions, and build and social consequences of globalisation; on the conclusions of the 2008 International • finding adequate funds for transport and Transport Forum. Governments working prioritising scarce resources; together can promote cost-effective low • reliable and secure supply chains. carbon sustainable transport that meets the challenges of the future and the needs of An efficient global transport system will citizens, business and the global community. play a significant role in the economic recovery. Ministers expressed concern It is necessary to secure a high level about how severely the transport sector has of long-term investment in transport. been affected by the downturn in the global Whilst acknowledging governments’ economy. They underlined how transport responsibility in planning and financing transport infrastructure, the importance will provide an important forum for this of private investment and public private- engagement. These challenging times partnership was endorsed. Sound analysis present a window of opportunity to rethink, should underpin investments in the global to review and to reform policies, systems transport system, with a solid evidence base and technologies to stimulate development to support decision-making. towards a sustainable and more effective global transport system. Innovation will be International supply chains need to be a key to success, and Ministers agreed that secure and reliable. Co-ordinated and risk- it should be the central topic for the 2010 based regulation is vital to ensure that Forum. economic and security benefits are achieved in a cost-effective and equitable way. Improving border crossing has significant potential to improve efficiency and facilitate Background reports from experts and the Secretariat trade. Ministers are determined to continue are available from the ITF website to work together internationally. The ITF http://www.internationaltransportforum.org

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Policy Panels 23 Anthony Albanese Minister for Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government, Australia

camiel Eurlings Minister of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, Netherlands

Rüdiger grube CEO, Deutsche Bahn AG

Joachim hunold CEO, Air Berlin

24 candan Karlıtekin CEO, Turkish Airlines leif Östling CEO, Scania

John Rice Vice Chairman, General Electric

Wolfgang tiefensee Federal Minister of Transport, Building and Urban Affairs, Germany

Ronald Widdows CEO, Neptune Orient Lines

25 Rapporteur: Anthony Venables Professor of Economics, Centre for Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, Oxford University, UK

Policy Panel 1, Session 1: transport and the Downturn Economic impacts Policy Panel 1, Session 1: transport and the Downturn Economic impacts

The global economic crisis has reduced the The session concluded that international flow of passengers and goods worldwide, co-operation would pave the way for thereby placing severe constraints on many recovery, with greater accessibility and manufacturers, transport operators and improved connections between markets and facilities. In turn, this has had consequences across transport modes forming the vision for the many millions who work in, and for success in the future. depend on, the transport sector. globalisation and investment in research “Reverting to and development remain the way protectionism would be In the panel’s first session, on “Economic forward totally, totally wrong.” Impacts”, Ministers, CEOs and high-level Rüdiger grube, Deutsche Bahn experts discussed how plummeting demand, Globalisation should not be reversed in fluctuating fuel prices and liquidity issues response to the crisis, said Rüdiger grube, are affecting global business. In this CEO of Deutsche Bahn. The crisis should session, panellists also considered what be viewed as an opportunity to invest in national governments and international research and development. In this respect, organisations can and should do to help he conceded, the automotive industry is mitigate the impacts of the crisis on the significantly ahead of the rail industry. 26 sector and stimulate economic recovery. Developments have to take account of the A second session then shifted focus to the importance of the environment, Mr Grube “Social and Environmental Impacts” of the said, with efficient and fair conditions for downturn, considering the measures needed investment for rail as well as the automotive to deal with the social consequences of the industry. Wolfgang tiefensee, the German economic downturn and how environmental Minister of Transport, supported this view, goals can be met even in time of economic stating that we need to improve the modal constraints. share, putting more goods onto rail and waterways. EconoMic iMPActS Maritime shipping weathers changes in trade flows; a different ‘world order’ The transport sector has suffered heavily to follow the crisis as a result of the global economic crisis. “Integrating the With ailing global financial markets, several The shipping industry is implicitly linked to different modes panellists noted that credit is lacking for the economy, and tends to experience the of transport more efficiently will make maintenance and for the development of new impacts of economic fluctuations before other it possible to be infrastructure and equipment in all modes of areas of the sector, said Ron Widdows, CEO of economically efficient transport. A newly emerged “nationalism” in Neptune Orient Lines. Several factors were and environmentally friendly.” banking has restricted availability of financing already contributing to a sectoral downturn Wolfgang tiefensee, for transport in a number of countries. Lack when the crisis hit, including a maturing in off- german Minister of transport of liquidity remains a problem for financing shore manufacturing with a corresponding transport system improvements. gradual decline in direct foreign investment. Moderator: Melinda Crane, Moderator, International Broadcaster and Journalist

Mr Widdows noted that there had been signs Joachim hunold, CEO of Air Berlin, concurred of a cyclical downturn in container shipping that, in times of crisis, markets tend to prior to the crisis, and that the precipitous consolidate, with capacity having to be drops in demand and tightening of liquidity adapted. These are circumstances that the in the financial markets during the crisis had airlines have managed well in the past, he exacerbated this. In addition, for some time, noted, provided the appropriate market there had been “irresponsible investment” – conditions and frameworks have been in place. excessive ordering of new ships – which has led to excess capacity. The current lack of Panellists called for a new set of global liquidity in markets will thus not necessarily market conditions in order to facilitate be detrimental to the shipping sector, efficient functioning of the sector. There was because new investments are not presently general agreement among panel members needed in the sector. that global policy responses are required for global problems – emissions trading in Job creation and investment in infra- aviation was cited as one example of this. structure are now likely to take place in a robust way, opening access to lower labour A single international sky in terms of costs in, for example, China. When there is regulation and air traffic management is 27 economic recovery, the world will not return essential for the airline industry, asserted to the way it was, Mr Widdows predicted. Minister Tiefensee. Anthony Albanese, Growth rates in maturing countries will be Australia’s Minister for Infrastructure, less than previously seen, and there will be Transport, Regional Development and Local much more domestic growth in India and Government, echoed this point, highlighting China. In turn, this will have a significant the need for a global single sky, without impact on trade flows. which distortions would emerge and put the

Airlines – adapting the business model

Airlines are restructuring and revising their business models to adjust to the effects of the economic crisis and the excess capacity that has emerged in the sector over many years of relatively easy credit and proliferation of market players. This means, for instance, reconfiguring available products to better correspond to the price the passenger is willing to pay. It also means concentrating on core business activities (e.g., less on-board duty-free sales) with fewer cross-subsidies, according to candan Karlıtekin, CEO, Turkish Airlines. Southern Hemisphere at a disadvantage, Although there are signs emerging of the particularly if emissions trading were to effectiveness of stimulus programmes in target the first point of landing. meeting this objective, the danger is that these programmes can go beyond their Joachim Hunold also supported the need for economic stimulus objective and become a single sky, noting that 47 different control protectionist in nature, as language centres exist in Europe, whereas in the United regarding the allocation of stimulus funds “The big danger is States there is only one. This means, he would suggest in some cases. protectionism.” explained, flights do not always take direct John Rice, general Electric routes in Europe, therefore contributing to camiel Eurlings, Minister of Transport, higher costs and carbon emissions. Public Works and Water Management for The Netherlands, echoed this concern, Decline in demand in the automotive industry calling for stimulus packages that were “timely, temporary and targeted”, and Reflecting on the impact of the crisis in noting the need to remain vigilant with road transport, Leif Östling, CEO of Scania, regard to growing public deficits. confirmed that business in the first quarter Maintaining balance in the stimulus 28 had declined by 90% compared with the package first quarter of 2008. For equipment manufacturers, the economic crisis has Minister Albanese outlined the Australian dealt a heavy blow, he said. response to the crisis, with stimulus funding focusing on road and rail As a result of the credit crunch, small infrastructure. Although it is easy to and medium-sized enterprises in road bring forward road, as opposed to rail transport are struggling in particular to projects, he said, policy-makers should not finance maintenance of working capital. In repeat mistakes that have led to a market addition, the average age of vehicle fleets distortion through failure to invest in is increasing by 2 – 2.5 years, producing productivity. higher emissions and greater safety risk. Moreover, product development costs Minister Albanese highlighted the tension are rising as a proportion of sales, with in investment decision-making between “We need to drastically reduced demand and lower short-term (3- to 4-year) political break the nexus sales volumes. decisions taken in response to popular between the political cycle and the pressure, and longer-term infrastructure investment cycle.” A role for government – stimulus investment cycles of 10 years or more. Anthony Albanese, packages need to preserve open markets, Minister for consider longer term objectives infrastructure, By definition, investments in infra- transport, Regional Stimulus packages are designed to structure will yield benefits in the longer Development and local government preserve the job market, emphasised John term. Therefore, investment decisions Rice, Vice Chairman of General Electric. that deal with the immediate need to create jobs should also consider longer- innovation (e.g., electric vehicles) and climate term objectives, such as the mitigation of change mitigation – is essential. In particular, climate change. international solutions are needed in aviation emissions trading, as are fiscal incentives to Minister Eurlings highlighted the need support innovation. to ensure increased efficiency in transport operations by reducing bureaucracy Governments need to work together in investment decision-making and for equitable market conditions among ”Stimulus packages for administrative procedures at border modes, panellists agreed. And perhaps the short-term have to be timely, temporary crossings. most importantly, countries must ensure and targeted.” that markets remain open – especially in camiel Eurlings, Minister of transport, need for co-ordinated action this time of economic hardship. Market netherlands entry barriers need to come down in road Panellists agreed that working together transport, as well as in both passenger and across national boundaries – especially on freight rail markets.

29 Peter Bakker CEO, TNT

george Dragnich Executive Director for Social Dialogue, International Labour Organization

christian Felber Speaker, Attac Austria

Stelios haji-ioannou President, easyGroup PLC

30 geoff hoon Secretary of State for Transport, UK

Moritz leuenberger Federal Councillor, Head of the Federal Department of Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications, Switzerland

graham Smith Senior Vice President, Toyota Motor Europe

Rapporteur: Anthony Venables Professor of Economics, Centre for Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, Oxford University, UK 31

Policy Panel 1, Session 2: transport and the Downturn Social and Environmental impacts Policy Panel 1, Session 2: transport and the Downturn Social and Environmental impacts

The global economic crisis has reduced the flow of passengers and goods worldwide, thereby placing severe constraints on many manufacturers, transport operators and facilities. In turn, this has had consequences for the many millions who work in, and depend on. the transport sector.

In the panel’s first session, on “Economic Impacts”, Ministers, CEOs and high-level experts discussed how plummeting demand, fluctuating fuel prices and liquidity issues are affecting global business. Panellists also considered what national governments and international organisations can and should do to help mitigate the impacts of the crisis on the sector and stimulate economic recovery. 32 In this second session, the panellists shifted focus to the “Social and Environmental Impacts” of the downturn, considering the measures needed to deal with the social consequences of the economic downturn and how environmental goals can be met even in time of economic constraint. very likely be more extensive than those observed during the 20th century, with SociAl AnD implications for people around the world. EnViRonMEntAl iMPActS

Complicating efforts to mitigate CO2 Transport energy use and carbon emissions emissions within the transport sector is the

“We cannot use the are projected to be about 80% higher current economic and financial crisis, which downturn as an than current levels by 2030. As Rajendra has taken a major toll on transport sector excuse for avoiding Pachauri, Nobel-Prize-winning Chairman activity: the road sector in the European the adjustment to an economy that of the International Panel on Climate Union alone, for example, has seen 140 000 will have a Change, pointed out in his keynote address jobs lost due to the crisis. fundamentally different basis: that is at the 2008 International Transport Forum, the challenge of continued GHG emissions at or above current the environmental challenge climate change.” geoff hoon, UK levels would cause further warming and Minister of transport induce many changes in the global climate Policy-makers currently face particularly system during the 21st century that would difficult choices as they try to balance Moderator: Melinda Crane, Moderator, International Broadcaster and Journalist short-term crisis management with long- But Mr Bakker warned of investing too much term sustainability goals. This second hope in new technology. He also called for a session of the Minister-Industry panel more fundamental change: whole business offered an opportunity to discuss options models have to be rethought and global for the transport sector to seek economic supply chains need to be redesigned, he said. recovery, and at the same time pursue To underline the importance of this point, he longer-term social and environmental goals. explained that TNT’s two Boeing 747 aircraft Can the sector continue to pursue cleaner – that make nine rotations per week between “If we don’t change the system – don’t change and greener transport while at the same Europe and China, often flying nearly empty everything – then time preserving jobs? to China and coming back fully loaded we are not going to – produce more CO emissions than the make it.” 2 Peter Bakker, tnt Facing the threat of climate change company’s entire fleet of road vehicles, which consists of about 30 000 vans and trucks. While all panellists agreed on the urgent need to find solutions to the climate change All panellists highlighted the need for a problem, their views differed as to how to rigorous, effective policy framework to approach this challenge. address climate change. Minister Hoon stressed that the transport sector and its 33 green technology policy-makers – especially the Transport

Ministers need to set their own CO2 reduction Some, like Minister geoff hoon, expressed objectives. This is the only way to prevent the hope that carbon emissions reduction others from setting these targets for them, targets could be satisfied mainly with the which could lead to unrealistic demands on help of innovative technology, such as new the sector. materials for aircraft and engines, and A dissenting stand on the crisis and by seeking more efficient ways of moving globalisation goods and passengers around the world. christian Felber, a representative of the anti- Major players in the sector are already globalisation movement Attac, presented his pursuing efficiency gains in their view of the current crisis and what needs to operations by deploying innovative be done about it. technology. According to Peter Bakker, CEO of TNT, for example, all urban deliveries Mr Felber refuted the notion that globalisation should go 100% electric within the next carries with it economic and societal benefits five years, while biodiesel should be used and argued that more trade requires more “In my view, we should exclusively for long-haul road transport. transport, which leads to an ever-higher not be talking about He expressed his wish for TNT to become consumption of natural resources. how to lower the cost of transport, but how to the first company to reach these goals and increase it.” called for stronger regulatory incentives Mr Felber highlighted that only about 3% of christian Felber, Attac to do so. the world’s population has ever set foot in an aircraft; he warned that if the other 97% industrialised and developing countries, Mr were to take up air travel, climate change Dragnich observed that large multinational would be accelerated by a factor of 4 or companies are increasingly willing to 5. He suggested that all the economic and respect the tenets of Corporate Social social damage that transport causes should Responsibility. This implies, according be factored into the cost of transport, thus to a commonly cited definition by the making transport much more expensive than World Business Council for Sustainable “A tax paid by those it is today. This, in turn, would strengthen the Development, a continuing commitment by countries that are role of sustainable regional and local markets. business to behave ethically and contribute responsible for high “First establish human rights, labour, social, to economic development while improving CO2-emissions can be used to compensate the environmental, health and tax standards, the quality of life of the workforce and their countries that are most impacted.” then trade”, Mr Felber said. families, as well as of the local community Moritz leuenberger, and society at large. Mr Dragnich pointed Social impacts and the benefits of Minister of transport, out that international labour standards Switzerland globalisation as set by the ILO are helping to prevent In response to Mr Felber’s remarks, the certain countries from gaining unfair trade other panellists evoked the benefits of advantages by undercutting standards. At 34 globalisation, not only for industrialised the same time, universally acknowledged economies, but around the world. Several labour standards cannot be used as trade panellists called attention to the benefits of barriers. a globalised economy for poverty reduction. Addressing Mr Felber’s critical view of Citing development in China, george passenger air travel, Mr Dragnich argued Dragnich, Executive Director of the that, even though it may be that only 3% International Labour Organisation (ILO), of the world’s population fly, the remaining warned that without global trade, there 97% could nevertheless benefit from air would be a dramatic drop in employment travel. He cited tourism – a labour-intensive all over the world. Echoing this perspective, industry, which is often the largest single UK Minister Hoon noted that the regular employer in developing countries. Stelios flights carrying fresh produce from Africa haji-ioannou, Chairman of easyGroup, to Europe facilitate an important source echoed the benefits of travel, citing the links of employment and income for many it creates between peoples and nations and Africans. According to Anthony Venables, the enhanced understanding it promotes. Oxford University Professor of Economics and Rapporteur of the session, Africa has Peter Bakker of TNT called for an still to see the kind of transformation effective policy framework to address that the pre-crisis wave of globalisation climate change. “The real stress test for has induced in countries such as China Copenhagen will be if we can come up and India. Commenting on the general with a price for carbon and an accounting problem of social imbalance between system behind this which will incentivise the leaders in the business community to problem by showing genuine leadership really clean up their act.” and setting their own standards.

Swiss Minister of Transport Moritz the Power of the consumer leuenberger emphasised the importance of the “polluter-pays principle”, including graham Smith, Senior Vice President, the use of revenues generated to mitigate Toyota Europe, reported that whilst Toyota and compensate for resulting damages, as is very pleased to see that policy-makers “Mitigating climate change is not just well as providing an incentive to reduce CO2 are encouraging an increase in use of the responsibility emissions. Professor Venables remarked greener technologies in the automotive of politicians or of that, whilst a global programme to mitigate sector, additional regulatory incentives global commercial climate change would be best, a start has could help to move environmental concerns organisations. We have to bring the civil to be made somewhere. Citing Voltaire, he up the list of consumer priorities. As for society with us on warned that the best should not become the social imperatives in this context, he this journey.” graham Smith, the enemy of the good. He reminded emphasised that use of new technologies toyota Europe transport policy-makers and other sector and the downsizing of cars should not stakeholders in attendance of their result in reduced levels of employment. responsibility to get the ball rolling and “Sustainability for us includes sustainability 35 called on them to tackle the climate change of labour”, he noted. cumhur Atılgan General Manager, RODER, Turkey

Ján Kubiš Executive Secretary, UN Economic Commission for Europe

Janusz lacny President of JMJ–TRANS and President of the International Road Transport Union

igor levitin Minister of Transport, Russian Federation

Kunio Mikuriya Secretary General, World Customs Organisation (WCO) Karl Mohnsen CEO, TX Logistik

Scott Price CEO, DHL Express Europe

Etienne Schouppe Secretary of State for Mobility, Belgium

Rapporteur: Mary Brooks William A. Black Chair of Commerce, Dalhousie University, Canada 37

Policy Panel 2: Supply chains and gateways in Volatile Markets Policy Panel 2: Supply chains and gateways in Volatile Markets

The situation with the global supply chain Where are the weak links in the global has changed dramatically over the last year. supply chain ? Then, growth outstripping capacity was the main challenge. Today, the challenge Within each mode, bottlenecks of a technical is adapting to new market conditions, or administrative nature were frequently alleviating the effects of the downturn cited as an important hindrance to the for logistics companies and preparing smooth flow of international freight. Kunio tomorrow’s supply chains, noted moderator Mikuriya, Secretary General of the World “Growth will come back as one economic Robert Wright in his opening comments. Customs Organisation, confirmed that, to crisis is not the end of improve the supply chain within the remit of the global economy.” is the downturn changing the structure Scott Price, of supply chains? transportation and customs, early access to Dhl Express Europe information facilitates risk management and Logistics actors everywhere have seen helps enforce security in its broadest sense. a steep decline in volumes traded in the Risk management therefore needs to be first quarter of 2009. Scott Price, CEO of consistent, with information shared to create DHL Express Europe, confirmed, citing a a network for the seamless transfer of goods. reduction in business of between 10 – 12% 38 in the first quarter of the year, although There was general consensus that business has begun to stabilise. removing existing regulatory barriers, introducing electronic document workflows Panellists came to the agreement that and adopting common risk management globalisation would continue but there was approaches offered least-cost pathways not necessarily agreement that supply to a truly integrated global supply chain. chains would remain the same. Smaller Replacing existing cabotage laws – reported players are being pushed out of the market to account for 30% of Europe’s empty runs and the global supply chain sector is likely – was perceived by several panellists as the to emerge consolidated. Freight forwarders single measure with the highest impact on are re-evaluating possible trade-offs freight efficiency. between lower manufacturing costs and higher transport costs which could translate Seamless transport services are essential into less demand for intercontinental trade. to supply chain actors. Yet, rail operations Energy prices, which peaked at over 140 in Europe remain constrained by historical US-dollars a barrel, and environmental factors, ranging from technical issues, factors are also emerging as key drivers such as signalling and electrification, to in the supply chain reconfiguration with safety systems, which delay cross-border “The crisis provides the opportunity to be less increased demand for land-based, short operations, according to Karl Mohnsen, CEO parochial and more sea shipping and intermodal transport. In of TX Logistik. global in thinking.” Mary Brooks, this sense, the current downturn is also Dalhousie University an opportunity for any well-organised and A discussion arose on ways to step up the managed company to exploit. convergence of logistics services into a truly Moderator: Robert Wright, Journalist, Financial Times

global transport market. Customer-driven coordinated investment strategies are intermodal solutions can offer an energy- needed. Seaports in particular need to be efficient transport service with potentially designed keeping in mind the hinterland large economies of scale but, in many cases, connections and the requirements of they require start-up investments allowing different users of the service. Industries the fleet and infrastructure to adapt to will only use gateways that effectively new technical requirements. Public support reduce their overall costs to market. needs to favour intermodal developments “It is time to redefine where there is the greatest carbon Ultimately, many of the supply chain choices transport corridors” emissions and largest potential for modal are driven by the customers themselves as Ján Kubiš, UnEcE shift. cumhur Atılgan, General Manager of they seek lower shelf prices. However, it is Roder, pointed to the high emissions savings government that effectively sets the rules achieved by Turkey’s increased reliance on of engagement. The regulatory climate intermodal transport. needed is one that is less parochial, more global in its thinking and adjustable to Highlighting the vital role of transport in future cyclical crises. economic development worldwide, Janusz lacny, President of JMJ-TRANS, also advocated What can governments do ? 39 the need for partnership across transport modes but insisted these require harmonisation The panel discussions produced general of technical and procedural factors. agreement on the following ways government can ensure efficient global supply chains in how does infrastructure need to be adapted ? the current economic context:

Infrastructure increasingly needs to be • Avoid protectionism: When multiple devised with the global market in mind. economies slide into recession simultan- The improvement of transport links and eously, the prospects for an export- corridors cannot be achieved by individual led recovery are dimmed. This makes countries, but needs broader co-operation short-term protectionist measures very from intergovernmental bodies, according attractive. to Ján Kubiš, Executive Secretary of UNECE. • Harmonise standards and reduce A good example of bilateral co-operation was administrative burden. provided by Russian Minister igor levitin, • Provide start-up support for intermodal “Every mode could who pointed to the excellent historic and programmes. give examples of ongoing working relationship with Finland • Coordinate infrastructure investment pro- discrepancies versus another mode. The crisis as a gateway from Russia for the supply of grammes where international markets are is an opportunity to goods from Russia to the rest of Europe. impacted. intervene and correct.” Etienne Schouppe, • Work with all the stakeholders especially Belgian Secretary of Freight corridors and gateways serving when devising large freight gateways and State for transport several markets at once do suggest where corridor. Dominique Bussereau Secretary of State for Transport, France

Roberto castelli Vice Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, Italy

Enrique Díaz-Rato CEO, Cintra

Maciej Jankowski Undersecretary of State, Ministry of Infrastructure, Poland

40 Bert Klerk Chairman, ProRail, Netherlands

Mustafa Sani Sener CEO, TAV Airports Holding

Yves-thibault de Silguy CEO, Vinci S.A.

Rapporteur: lord Macdonald of tradeston Chairman, Macquarie Capital Europe

Policy Panel 3: infrastructure: Public and Private Roles after the credit crunch Policy Panel 3: infrastructure: Public and Private Roles after the credit crunch

Governments everywhere are facing a Talking of his experience in the rail sector need to upgrade transport systems. Much in the Netherlands, Bert Klerk, Chairman, essential infrastructure needs to be built, ProRail and President, European Rail replaced or adapted to serve increased Infrastructure Managers, reported that traffic and changing travel and trade the involvement of private partners is patterns. often greeted with suspicion in the public eye: “People think rail is – and should stay – But the gap between the global need for state business.” This shows the importance “Risk is back, austerity is back, and more infrastructure investment and the of drawing public attention to the benefits the state is back.” public funds available to build it is growing of private involvement in infrastructure lord Macdonald of tradeston, Macquarie and could become even wider in the current projects, in order to achieve greater public capital Europe economic climate. Experience shows that buy-in where PPPs are concerned. when public finances are under pressure, infrastructure investment is often cut What is the impact of the current crisis on existing PPPs, and on the PPP market back. in general?

There has been an increasing trend The current global economic and financial 42 toward engaging the private sector in crisis has had a profound impact on infrastructure development. private investment in infrastructure. Many banks have ceased to lend, while Private engagement in transport infra- others are lending less and focusing their structure can take a number of forms, activities on lower-risk projects. The crisis including concessions and public-private has also tested the assumptions on which partnerships (PPPs). The appropriate many existing projects are based, and model will depend on the nature of the asset. the long-term implications are yet to be Many mature assets could be concessioned seen. At a general level, the result is that, or privatised, which would likely involve less wherever available, financing for private risk and more limited, but steadier returns investment in infrastructure has become than some PPPs. Privatisation could also more costly. generate additional funds to support “The ultimate justification for the infrastructure investment. Private involvement in infrastructure participation of the funding is highly reliant on the availability private sector is efficiency: we perform Private financing should not be considered of credit, as these arrangements typically better, cheaper and a “necessary evil” – the primary reason for involve enormous up-front expenditures. sooner than the public engaging private capital in infrastructure Thus, the current crisis is having a major sector; not because we are smarter, but funding is not to fill gaps where government impact, reducing credit availability because we have the funding is not available, but rather to make for investment in infrastructure while right incentives.” Enrique Díaz-Rato, use of the expertise and the competence increasing the cost of borrowing (and thus cintra of the private sector, as well as of its power of private investment) due to increased to innovate. risk. It is also reducing the revenues from Moderator: Nik Gowing, International Broadcaster and Journalist existing infrastructure, due to lower use. Many rail infrastructure projects, which Furthermore, the availability of monoline typically demand a particularly high level insurance has dropped considerably. of investment, have had to be interrupted due to lack of funds. Roberto castelli, Recently, major projects have needed to be Under-Secretary for Infrastructure postponed or restructured due to the lack of and Transport, voiced his concern about credit. Maciej Jankowski, Undersecretary the fact that rail projects are often less of State of the Polish Ministry of attractive for private investors than road “Right now, we need Infrastructure, provided an example of projects: “We must find a financing system PPPs more than ever the increasing difficulties experienced for rail transport that makes it profitable before.” Dominique Bussereau, by many countries in implementing PPP and competitive. For the time being, this is Secretary of State for projects. Poland has planned to build about not the case.” transport, France 480 kms of motorways under PPP schemes by 2012. Negotiations on the 100 km-long Still, all is not doom and gloom in the field section of the A2 Motorway, part of the of private infrastructure investment. As pan-European Berlin-Warsaw-Moscow Mustafa Sani Sener CEO, TAV Airports corridor, recently had to be abandoned Holding, pointed out: “The money in the because potential investors demanded world has not evaporated, it is still there. 43 that the major burden of risk be shifted to The conditions are hard, but if the structure the state. of a PPP is sound and clearly defined,

“Is the Public-Private Partnership system in danger at this moment? The answer is yes!” Bert Klerk, European Rail infrastructure Managers there is no difficulty in raising finance in our business.” The crisis could even have a positive impact as well, in the form of a fall in the cost of construction.

What do governments need to do in the short term to mitigate the impact of the crisis on PPPs?

It is important to note that PPPs are suffering as a result of a crisis in other areas of the economy – especially the financial sector – and this does not bring into question the validity or sustainability of private investment in infrastructure per se.

In many instances, the lack of credit available to private firms investing in infrastructure 44 will require some kind of public intervention in the short term. Countries are taking different approaches to this issue. Some governments – such as the United Kingdom, which is undertaking a lending role, and France, where the government is providing loan guarantees – are taking active steps to support PPPs. International financing institutions, such as the European Investment Bank, are doing the same, for What can be done to secure a stable, example by taking equity positions where long-term role for private capital and financing is not otherwise available. expertise in transport infrastructure? One thing is to stabilise private funding Governments and/or international arrangements in the short term. However, financial institutions could also seek out this is temporary, and the real objective “We have to coordinate the financial actors short-term mechanisms to ensure that the should be to establish stable funding of all kinds and role played by monoline insurers continues arrangements in the longer term, especially categories, to get them interested in to be played, at least until monoline markets if we accept that private funding will major projects. recover. lord Macdonald elaborated: “It be required to meet future transport Europe could do more would be good if governments would think infrastructure needs. in this field.” Yves-thibault de about setting up an institution to replicate Silguy, cEo, Vinci S.A. the monoline function in the short to Governments should be ready to meet medium term, perhaps to privatise it later.” a rapidly rising demand for transport money is ultimately essential to longer-term social and economic stability, its investment in infrastructure can result in greater public interest in ensuring the stability of those investments. Sovereign-wealth funds also offer new potential.

There are a number of steps that governments can take to further attract private capital to transport infrastructure:

• Focus on “high quality” PPPs – meaning projects that will be stable and provide important benefits to society. Rigorous economic appraisal remains the best tool for ensuring that onlywell conceived and designed projects, which add value, go forward. 45 Governments should avoid projects that are developed principally on the basis of political expediency. • Make sure that projects are clearly defined, and that the legislative and regulatory frameworks that govern PPPs and procurement processes are well defined and strictly enforced so infrastructure, which can be expected as that private partners have a strong economies begin to recover. Although it sense of stability. This applies will not resolve all funding needs, private particularly to developing and emerging financing can be an important source of economies. this funding. • Provide appropriate pricing schemes for infrastructure use. Insurance and pension funds, in particular, • Review accounting standards to ensure represent an important potential source that they do not unfairly penalise PPPs in of infrastructure funding that is largely comparison to public procurement. untapped in many countries. According to • Improve risk allocation, and not seek a recent OECD project “Infrastructure to to transfer risks that clearly cannot be 2030”, there are about USD 18 trillion in managed by private partners (e.g. pension funds available for investment in political risk, macroeconomic risk, much OECD countries alone. Because pension fund demand risk, etc.). carlos grau tanner Director, Government and Industry Affairs, International Air Transport Association

Johannes ludewig Executive Director, Community of European Railway and Infrastructure Companies

Martin Marmy Secretary General, International Road Transport Union

Spyros Polemis Chairman, International Chamber of Shipping

46 Scott Price CEO, DHL Express Europe hans Rat Secretary General, International Association of Public Transport

Matthias Ruete Director General of Energy and Transport, Transport and Energy, European Commission

Jamal Saghir Director of Energy, Transport and Water, World Bank

Ronald Widdows CEO, Neptune Orient Lines

47 Binali Yıldırım Minister of Transport of Turkey, President of the 2009 International Transport Forum

Policy Panel 4: international leaders’ Roundtable Moving the Agenda Forward Policy Panel 4: international leaders’ Roundtable Moving the Agenda Forward

The International Leaders’ Roundtable was “Many of the innovations we are dreaming of a welcome opportunity to carry forward will depend on alternative energy production the agenda by discussing how ministers, in the future.” the private sector and international organisations can work together on a Patrick Dixon went on to describe the forward-looking, longer-term vision for the fundamental challenge of the world’s transport sector. Patrick Dixon, an expert changing demography: “There are one “We need to look on global trends who has been described as billion children alive today, all of whom will beyond the crisis and “Europe’s leading futurist” and ranked as one be adults and want to be mobile within 15 to prepare the sector for the future.” of the 20 most influential business thinkers 20 years. That alone is a significant driver of Binali Yıldırım today, was invited to moderate the session. urbanisation.” Minister of transport, turkey In his opening words, Patrick Dixon appealed The resulting surge of urbanisation and to the audience to look beyond the current demand for mobility bears dangers and crisis and focus attention in particular opportunities for the sector. “If we manage to on innovation, the topic of next year’s deal with it, we should be heading for a very International Transport Forum. exciting future”. 48 innovation and cooperation help to An informal polling of the audience revealed a overcome the crisis near-unanimous belief that the world should be heading for an economic recovery within In his address, Binali Yıldırım, Minister the next 36 - 48 months. of Transport of Turkey and President of the 2009 International Transport Forum, Stimulus packages will take time to generate results acknowledged that the transport sector had been badly hit. The swift downturn But Patrick Dixon warned that the majority has translated into a drop in the demand of economic stimulus measures would only for transport services and resulted in job start taking effect with a certain time-lag, losses, he noted. However, transport policy and begin showing their true impact well into can play a role in overcoming the crisis and the recovery phase on account of the project preparing for the challenges of the future. “12 months ago, the talks around this timeframes of infrastructure investments in “The importance of transport has not been Forum were all about areas such as high-speed rail, harbours and diminished by this crisis; if anything it has the massive oil prices and how the industry airports. increased.” Minister Yıldırım stated. could survive. The assumption was Dixon also criticised what he called the “last- International eration and co-ordination that environmental innovations would pay century mentality”, i.e., thinking of the energy need to be strengthened at this time, noted for themselves out of and the transport industries as two separate Minister Yıldırım, emphasizing the role of energy reduction and climate change policy.” constructs. The realisation that the future the International Transport Forum as the Patrick Dixon of transport is directly linked to the future platform where global transport policy is of energy is only the first step, he argued. being formulated. Moderator: Patrick Dixon, Chairman of Global Change Ltd., UK

In the knowledge that trade and transport When projecting the future of transport, have to work together and rely on each other experts are looking at a time frame of 20 to 40 internationally, he concluded by calling on his years. According to Matthias Ruete, Director colleagues to concentrate on infrastructure General of Transport and the Environment at improvement as a lever for job creation and the European Commission, a zero-emission improved competitiveness. urban environment may become reality in this period through zero-emission housing, The Canadian Minister of State for Transport, urban transport, and energy production and Rob Merrifield, who is presiding over the distribution grids. Mr Ruete also recalled 2010 International Transport Forum, the importance of a rigorous and effective took the opportunity to call to mind the regulatory framework to aid infrastructure importance of international co-operation: “If development. there’s one thing that last year should have taught us, it is that we are so connected as Scott Price drew attention to the fact that a world we absolutely must work together the transport sector, as an inherently to move forward.” Taking up a recurrent international industry, needs a predictable concern stated throuhghout the Forum, regulatory environment in order to have Minister Merrifield warned of the dangers some planning dependability. To be effective, 49 of protectionism: “If there is one thing he claimed, the efforts of the industry must go we need to do, it’s protect ourselves from hand-in-hand with government regulations. To protectionism,” he declared. illustrate the importance of this statement, he gave an example of how industry initiatives to Minister Merrifield expressed his conviction improve the climate footprint are undermined that innovation will help drive the industry by flawed regulation: DHL began an initiative through the recession and allow it to succeed. during the downturn to upgrade its fleet to more fuel-efficient models and improve connected thinking in transport utilisation rates; at the same time, however, 30% of all trucks run empty in Europe due to Despite the current economic challenges, cabotage regulations. business is moving forward. DHL Express, for example, opened its new European hub in Matthias Ruete agreed that optimised May 2008 in Halle/Leipzig airport, where the tools and integrated operations could entire European operations are now handled. have a significant impact, pointing to the “I am a great believer CEO Scott Price reported on the company’s implementation of the European Rail Traffic in free markets rationale for moving to Leipzig: “We see a Management System, which will make more that are properly regulated – and it’s huge growth in volume coming out of Eastern efficient use of the existing rail infrastructure the responsibility Europe and a lot of capital investment, and in Europe. of governments to properly regulate.” of capacity for Western Europe consumption Scott Price, coming back into Central Europe on account Promising examples of truly integrated Dhl Express Europe of the long-term risk on energy prices.” logistics systems also exist, noted Ron Widdows, CEO of Neptune Orient Lines. the maintenance of their road and rail The Alameda Corridor, a 20-mile-long high infrastructure. capacity freight expressway linking the the challenges of fleet renewal and port cluster of Long Beach and Los Angeles environmental protection to the transcontinental rail terminals near downtown Los Angeles, has improved In addition, the transport sector will not efficiency, congestion and transit times only be challenged by maintenance but also

“We have seen the need and has had a huge positive impact on the by necessary modernisation cycles. In the for connected thinking environment. shipping industry, for example, the next wave in terms of transport.” of renewal is coming soon. The industry will Matthias Ruete, European commission Innovation is one of the main drivers of have 50–60% of tonnage of the world fleet development. Jamal Saghir, Director delivered within the next three years. These of Energy, Transport and Water at the modern ships will be far more fuel-efficient. World Bank, appealed to the transport Still, even this new fleet of ships will not meet sector to increase investment in research future environmental standards. In other and development. Thriving cities, mobile words, the entire fleet will have to be changed people and vigorous trade have been the again within the next couple of decades. In 50 catalysts of progress and welfare in the view of this situation, Ron Widdows outlined last two centuries. These components will his position: “Before our industry invests the remain constant for the future, he noted. next trillion dollars – and that’s what we are Urban areas are becoming more and more talking about – you do need to have some important to economic growth – the greater clarity of where regulatory and standard Cairo area, for example, contributes 40% of setting is heading”. Egypt’s GDP – the question of how to separate the movement of goods from the movement of Spyros Polemis, Chairman of the people in a way that makes continued access International Shipping Council, pointed out to those urban areas efficient, is becoming that the shipping industry relies heavily on extremely important. innovation in shipping construction. Whereas in the last ten years ship engines have Addressing the question of how to finance improved their fuel efficiency by 20-25%, such expensive projects, Mr Saghir the optimisation of cargo-carrying capacity pointed out that the private capital flow has reversed this development in certain “If the transport in infrastructure finance would decline by areas. Regarding the next ten years, similar sector doesn’t drive around USD 700 billion. This is extremely efficiency gains will be reached through a the climate change agenda, it’s going to serious, as it changes the rules of the combination of design and engines. be the energy agenda game completely. Institutional banks that drives the transport and climate are also very concerned about the issue Johannes ludewig, Executive Director of change agenda.” of maintenance in transport. Neither the Community of European Railways and Jamal Saghir, developing countries nor emerging Infrastructure Companies (CER), noted World Bank markets are allotting adequate funds for that future design decisions are largely control have already greatly improved the climate footprint. Nevertheless, a single European air space and other short-term actions and political decisions will be necessary in the future. Regulations that quite often are based on governmental agreements and treaties from the 1940’s will have to be changed. “Innovation is changing mobility patterns.” Driven by new mobile electronic devices and hans Rat, UitP services, patterns of urban transportation behaviour are changing, hans Rat, Secretary conditioned by pricing dynamics. If the price General of the International Association of incentive is right, then more energy-efficient Public Transport (UITP), observed. All over design will follow. the world, public transport companies are observing an increasing number of users. In the trucking industry, Martin Marmy, This process started before the crisis and Secretary General, International Road it continues to grow, creating huge new job 51 Transport Union (IRU), reported that silicone opportunities in the sector. would be a key pillar of innovation, both inside computer chips to improve vehicle Johannes Ludewig reported of efforts the management, and in ceramic engines and rail industry is undertaking to maintain gearboxes, making them resistant to higher the sector’s sustainability advantage in the temperatures. future. For 2020, railways are targeting a reduction of specific energy consumption by As in the shipping industry, the sources around 30%, which is more than the objectives of pollution in aviation are highly mobile. set by the European Union. However, a Consequently, the sector is encouraging problem for rail is how quality and structural a global set of policies, because regional infrastructure needs can be financed reliably regulatory frameworks have begun to into the future, especially given that parts of emerge. This is extremely complex and the system are underfinanced today. expensive to handle for the industry. Panellists agreed, there are tremendous carlos grau tanner, Head of Government opportunities in optimising transport by “The transport system Affairs at the International Air Transport innovation without having to invest trillions of is a service system, Association (IATA), pointed out: “There is no dollars . But those gigantic improvements in the and we have to ask ourselves how we can stronger incentive than last year’s oil prices efficiency of supply chains will require some service the objectives for the airline industry to become extremely regulatory and legislative statements and an which are there.” Johannes ludewig, fuel efficient.” The installation of new open dialogue between the governments and cER upward wing tips and optimisation of traffic the industry. 52

Workshops 53 Mary Brooks William A. Black Chair of Commerce, Dalhousie University, Canada

Weijun Fei Deputy Director, Waterborne Transportation Institute

hans Jeekel Ministry of Transport, Netherlands

Boris lapidus Vice President, Russian Railways, Russia

54 lauri ojala Professor and Chair of Logistics, Turku School of Economics, Finland Jean-claude Raoul Chair of the Mobility and Transport Commission, Académie des Technologies, France

lars-göran Rosengren Vice President of Innovation Strategy & Policy, AB Volvo

Wolfgang Stölzle Managing Director, Chair of Logistics Management, University of St Gallen, Switzerland

hans-georg Werner Board Member, DB Schenker Rail Deutschland AG, Germany

Workshop 1: intermodal transport and Supply chains – Moving the global Economy Workshop 1: intermodal transport and Supply chains – Moving the global Economy

The Workshop on Intermodal Transport in the long-term was considered not and Supply Chains - Moving the Global of immediate concern and probably Economy examined the forces driving the not overly significant in overall terms. development of the sector and discussed Logistics costs represent around 10- the potential ramifications of the current 15% of total turnover in manufacturing severe downturn. The impact of volatile industries and transport-related costs energy prices and the longer-term profile of account for one third of this. Often, “The crisis and downturn supply chains were debated. The workshop inventory and management costs are is every-where. The crisis also discussed the integration of transport greater than direct transport costs. will interrupt but does not stop globalisation… and logistics firms, the growing significance There will be increased of reliability and consumer values in logistics The reliability of logistics chains was demand in transport services, and the potential and desirability considered an important service factor. and logistics. This is a growing industry.” for growth in intermodal, rail, barge, and Unreliability tends to arise at interfaces hans-georg Werner, short sea shipping services. – between countries, between ports DB Schenker Rail Deutschland Ag and hinterland connections, at modal the transport sector faces urgent interchanges and between warehouse and problems in the short-term, but must carrier. also focus on actions to support 56 long-term strategies Despite its importance, network and Workshop participants noted that the global service reliability is not yet systematically economic downturn has been severe, affecting incorporated in the transport planning many industries simultaneously and creating process and is rarely included as part of uncertainty. However, the general view of the cost-benefit analysis. In addition to participants was that growth will return, and reliability, the consumer has an important the crisis will not have a significant impact on role in determining logistics patterns continuing globalisation. should not be underestimated. the current crisis will reinforce the With this in mind, the quality of infrastructure trend towards new global ‘mega players’ and existing bottlenecks will remain a challenge. ITS systems are likely to have a The current economic downturn has “We need more innovative road/ bigger impact, and effective functioning of severely impacted trade volumes and sea/rail transfer these systems is of importance. profit margins. Some transport and solutions both for goods and documents logistics companies will not be able to i.e. ‘paperless the future development of supply chains survive the downturn and are likely to transport’…. will depend less on the price of energy exit from the sector. In order to manage Infrastructure bottlenecks exist and and more on the capacity of logistics interface many agents along the supply companies to provide reliable lead to unreliability chain have become engaged in horizontal and reduced speed.” end-to-end services lars-göran and vertical integration of activities. This Rosengren, AB Volvo The impact of volatile energy prices has increased efficiency and promoted the and a potential return to high oil prices emergence of some very large companies, Moderator: Zoltan Kazatsay, Deputy Director- General for Transport Activities, European Commission including logistics businesses and There is also a need for more international maritime shipping companies controlling cooperation in reconciling national with large assets and operating globally. regional interests in questions such as cabotage. Maritime cabotage is a serious long- clients require a smooth transportation term issue for the sector. Whilst international system that calls for cooperation shipping is a relatively open market, regional between modes to enhance intermodalism in the supply chain shipping continues to be limited by cabotage constraints. Yet, despite predictions of “We are faced with a Cooperation between businesses to increased congestion, the regulatory new business model. Transport must be improve intermodal transport will be environment still favours highways. incorporated in important to surviving the current crisis. manufacturing and Legislative and regulatory differences are Growth in intermodality will not only distribution and controlled by same serious obstacles for smooth operations, help to improve the passage of goods players.” and there is a need for international across continents, but will help to address Jean-claude Raoul, Académie des cooperation in harmonising legislation and challenges of volatile energy prices and technologies procedures. environmental concerns.

North America

East Asia

Europe

Southern Oceania Asia “In Europe, capacities South/Central America & Caribbean in the hinterland are the most important West Africa bottleneck….The role 43690 of Transport policy Thousand TEUs by needs to create Region of Origin conducive conditions 18553 South/East Africa for all market 11148 5043 6586 participants.” 531 1117 1971 Wolfgang Stölzle, ca st Containers moved bye Sea (TEUs), 2008 rica rica rica eri rope University of St S. Asia Eu r Ea Source: Containerisation International, OECD/ITF W. Af Oceania Fa L. Ame gallen, Switzerland E. & S. Af North Am Dan ikenson Associate Director, Centre for Trade Policy Studies, CATO Institute, Washington

Andrea Kocsis Ver.di Trade Union, Germany

Marios Meletiou Ports and Transport Sector Specialist, International Labour Organization, Geneva

58 Arpita Mukherjee Professor, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Affairs (ICRIER), New Delhi

Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard Consultant, World Bank

K. l. thapar Founder and Chairman, Asian Institute of Transport Development

Workshop 2: Social impacts of international transportation Workshop 2: Social impacts of international transportation

Chaired by Maurice Bernadet this as education, and medical services. At the workshop, exploring the social aspects same time, changes may result in increased of global transport, commenced with a inequalities among and within countries, as presentation of the study “The Social well as generating negative side effects such Impact of Globalisation” by Arpita Mukherjee as accelerating the spread of diseases and of the Indian Council on International epidemics. Economic Relations. A role model for other developing or “But the positives have emerging countries? far outweighed the Globalisation has facilitated growth in negatives in the case developing countries in recent years. Despite Dan ikenson perceived ample opportunities of India.” Arpita Mukherjee, the economic downturn the rate of growth of for other countries to adopt reforms akin indian council the Indian economy is estimated to be around to those implemented by India, but at their on international Economic Relations 7-8%, or 5% based on conservative estimates. own pace. Nonetheless, the Indian Government will release a stimulus package in order to Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard spoke of maintain the current growth levels. the role of transport infrastructure in diminishing inequality in a country at a Still enormous potential for growth in 60 the transport sector local level. Referring to several studies she also remarked that at a national level, there Transport is at the heart of economic growth tends to be a transition period during which and trade in developing countries, facilitating time inequalities worsen before improving. connections to international trade hubs, On an international level there needs to increasing liberalisation and competition, be recognition that not all countries are and attracting foreign direct investment favoured to enter the world market. Countries (FDI); in India 30% of FDI is facilitated by the with geographical access and which are in the transport sector. process of economic change – such as Chile and China – are better placed than isolated The development of transportation systems and landlocked countries. is a directly linked enabler of national industry and therefore intrinsically linked to transport: A driver of social development employment. Various studies have indicated that the Indian transport sector still needs to K.l.thapar highlighted the important role of grow more rapidly to meet the requirements accessibility in improving conditions. of the Indian economy. “If you are small, A study of a population living within the vicinity sparsely populated Opening and developing the market, and the of a highway creating links to urban centres and isolated you start at a disadvantage.” supply chain optimises connectivity as well revealed that poverty decreased by 12%. In Maryvonne as enhancing distribution, productivity, and addition, well being improved by 32% and there Plessis-Fraissard, World Bank efficiency. In addition, it improves social was significantly more student enrolment in access to fundamental requirements such education – particularly amongst females. Moderator: Maurice Bernadet, Professeur, Laboratoire d’Economie des Transports, University of Lyon, France

“Any downturn, whether global, regional, or current economic crisis three issues need local, has an exaggerated negative social to be addressed: first, policies for social effect on the transport sector because support such as education, health, and incomes in this case tend to fall more water supplies; second, smart infrastructure drastically. They also fall more quickly, as investment in order to achieve multisectoral well as more suddenly, and when most of the and multimodal goals; and thirdly, corrective labour employed in the sector is unskilled or intervention where it is needed. semi-skilled, as is generally the case within the “Wherever there is developing countries, the social consequences As there is potential for inequalities, better access there is tend to be worse.”, K. L. Thapar said. governmental regulations are required in less poverty.” K. l. thapar, Asian order to overcome the negative consequences institute of transport In order to achieve a balance between public of growth addressing labour and human Development and private participation in the development rights issues. of transport infrastucture, there needs to be differentiation between fixed and mobile towards a better world assets. The latter are more readily supported by the private sector. Conversely, the state Andrea Kocsis reminded the panel that the has a major role to play in supporting unions should not be considered as part of 61 infrastructure investment. the problem but of the solution. She called for the establishment of a globally harmonised Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard advocated human rights framework to prevent the that in preparation for an end to the risk of countries entering into a race to the bottom in order to attract and maintain activities.

In order to counter inequality in the labour market, Marlos Meletlou requested that the global community should agree on minimum labour standards as well as taking a different perspective regarding worldwide manufacturing costs. Mr Meletlou highlighted that fair globalisation creates opportunities for everyone. One of the risks of the downturn “Young people should is that it tends to impact disadvantaged be in employment, or receiving training or groups first, such as young employees, education. If they are migrants, unqualified workers, and women. As not in one of these positions we face has been the case in Singapore, governments a very bad future.” need to maintain training during times of Marios Meletiou, unemployment, thereby securing skilled international labour organisation (ilo) workers for the times of recovery. Matthew Arndt Head of Rail and Road Division, European Investment Bank

Alain Bonnafous Professor of Economics, Laboratoire d’Economie des Transports, University of Lyon, France

Robert cochrane Independent Transport Consultant, London

Stefan garber Board Member, Deutsche Bahn AG, Germany

62 Peter Mackie Professor of Transport Studies, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds nicolas Rubio Director, Business Development and Technical Department, Cintra

K.l. thapar Founder and Chairman, Asian Institute of Transport Development

caroline Visser Specialist on Road Finance and Public-Private Partnerships, International Road Federation (IRF)

Waleed Youssef Chief Strategy Officer, TAV Airports Holding Inc, Turkey

Workshop 3: Strategic transport infrastructure Planning & Financing Workshop 3: Strategic transport infrastructure Planning & Financing

Investment in transport infrastructure take years to rebalance, and the current has contributed to reducing the cost of correction is likely to be followed by a trade and has stimulated globalisation. period of sluggish recovery before growth Further investment across the globe will takes off again. As Robert cochrane put be needed if trade is to continue to grow it: “The general view is that we are now and benefit a broader range of countries. looking at a bathtub curve.” Transport policy must also adjust to the economic and structural changes that “The general view is that we are now looking globalisation brings to domestic economies at a bathtub curve”. as this has a powerful impact on the Robert cochrane, imperial pattern of demand for transport services. college london The financial and economic crisis modifies the outlook for international transport and has sharply reduced the availability of finance for transport infrastructure investment. This has 64 important implications for project appraisal and project financing. At the same time, policies to mitigate the current economic downturn include an emphasis on transport infrastructure spending, but how should this best be directed to assist and prepare for economic recovery?

The workshop, chaired by lord gus Macdonald, examined these issues and the infrastructure planning and investment policies needed to ensure adequate performance and reliability of the

“Affordability is going transport network to support growth in a to be become a much global economy. Transport demand and congestion more critical element in levels are now more difficult to predict, appraisal, and therefore the balance between The economic crisis has reduced economic particularly for freight, which is more public funding, user growth this year substantially below what sensitive to changes in economic growth charges, social benefits and value for money is would have been expected on recent trends rates than passenger transport. Freight likely to become more (7 percentage points below in the UK for volumes have fallen more sharply than important.” Prof. Peter Mackie, example). The economy will eventually economic activity as a whole for a number University of leeds bounce back but the debt overhang of reasons. Conversely, when recovery underlying the collapse of activity will comes, new growth in freight volumes is Moderator: Lord Macdonald of Tradeston, Chairman, Maquarie Capital Europe likely to outstrip forecasts, as has been assessed to be positive for increasing the case in previous growth cycles. economic welfare. There is a particular backlog of maintenance projects that Governments need to be prepared for this are particularly suited to contributing recovery as well as responding to the crisis to government spending to stimulate in the short term. “In a squeezed investment the economy as they can be delivered relatively quickly.

“We strongly feel that Bottlenecks are another focus for governments in this investment, and their modest scale also time should see the moment to rethink makes them a better fit in stimulus their financing of packages than mega projects. Moreover, infrastructure and try to come up with long any risk of overinvestment in capacity term funding solutions.” because of the economic crisis is minimised caroline Visser, iRF by a focus on bottlenecks. Recession may have eased congestion on some bottlenecks, but recovery when it comes is likely to put the same links under strain. 65 Mega projects are much more likely to run demand risks.

Top quality economic appraisal is more important than ever. The shortage of finance implies that the hurdle rate of return for selecting projects under appraisal needs to rise. the long-term outlook: capital intensive and politically influenced

Going forward, the crisis will exacerbate the existing funding gap. The coming fiscal “It doesn’t matter what budget, have we fully factored in the costs squeeze will make it harder for government the problem is today of maintaining what we have got at suitable to fund infrastructure investment. The because infrastructure decisions, financing quality levels and in what may be a stormy financial crisis reduces the private decisions or environment?” Peter Mackie asked. funding available in the short term but construction decisions we make for any major governments can act to make better use new project will go into the funding gap and bottlenecks of private investment. production earliest in ten years.” Stefan garber, We entered the crisis with a large funding The lack of capital and investment is also Deutsche Bahn Ag gap for transport infrastructure projects a major issue for developing countries, as K.l. thapar pointed out, since this access are currently not available for funding depends, especially in times of crisis, infrastructure and the only source of funds on the developing countries’ domestic are banks. A much smaller number of banks savings. than usual answer calls to syndicate finance for PPPs this year (typically 10 rather than The question of how investment decisions a more usual 30). The British government today could stimulate the economy is seen has stepped in to facilitate syndication as essential, according to caroline Visser in key projects through the Treasury’s “The governmental side has to close the of the International Road Federation. Infrastructure Finance Unit, acting in gap between capacity Visser stressed that governments should effect as a bank. One of the key features and demand by encouraging additional not forget about mid- and long-term of this intervention is its exit strategy, so investments in planning, which require a huge strategic that the state will not be competing with the sector.” Walleed Youssef, tAV input in order to attract infrastructural the banks when the crisis eases. Some Airports holding support and long-term sustainable other governments have responded to growth. the crisis by imposing a regulatory limit

The crisis makes private capital more 66 expensive and this increases the importance of getting the design of public private partnerships right. Above all governments must ensure that there are powerful incentives for efficiency in PPPs through the way that risks are assigned. The worst failures of PPPs have occurred where finance consortia were undercapitalised, were not required to produce parent company guarantees, and were allowed to subcontract construction work in-house rather than through competition. No purely private investment would accept these flaws. When equity is risked it brings rationality and efficiency to PPPs. “But if we have learned one thing in At the same time, governments may be in the last two years, it’s probably that there a better position to take demand side risk, is a need for a lot if forecasts of GDP underpinning projects of tools and a lot of flexibility to be able prove inaccurate, than private partners. to face unexpected situations.” The crisis has resulted in a scarcity of Matthew Arndt, EiB equity as well as debt. Capital markets on the exposure of banks to lending to investment. Around a trillion dollars individual project developers regardless of transport sector assets have been of the quality of investments. A more privatised over recent decades. There is a targeted approach might manage risk and potential for many more privatisations, of avoid exacerbating the credit crunch. The airports for example. European Investment Bank is responding to the crisis by increasing the volume of senior Liberalisation more generally has loans and participations for infrastructure generated economic growth. Protectionism investment, and has created with the in response to the economic crisis European Commission a loan guarantee would suppress recovery with a severe system covering traffic related risk for effect on transport activity. Conversely, selected strategic international projects. further liberalisation (more open skies agreements, freeing of road and maritime Privatisation is another route to bringing cabotage, etc.) would provide a durable private equity to transport infrastructure stimulus to the economy.

67 Earl Agron Vice President, Security & Environment, APL Limited

Mark Miller Director of Supply Chain Security Europe, Middle East and Africa, COTECNA Inspection SA

Vlad olteanu Policy Manager, ACI Europe

68 Robert Poole Director of Transportation Policy, Reason Foundation, Los Angeles

David Widdowson CEO, Centre for Customs & Excise Studies, University of Canberra, Australia

Sabine Wiedemann Vice President of Corporate Security, Deutsche Post DHL

Workshop 4: Ensuring a Secure global transport System Workshop 4: Ensuring a Secure global transport System

The global economy relies heavily on trade and international passenger transport. Attaining the highest standards of security in transport systems is essential for their operation. Governments and stakeholders, such as the industry and travellers, have a shared interest in the establishment of effective policies to ensure transport takes “It is a challenge for regulators to be place under secure conditions. Measures more inventive than should be viable, widely accepted, and they terrorists.” Axel goehr, Federal should make good use of scarce resources. Ministry of transport, Building and Urban Affairs, towards risk-based security policy germany Not all existing security policies are effective. While the sources of insecurity are flexible and dynamic, measures are often inflexible 70 and static. Policies today largely revolve around the concept of target hardening. As Robert Poole pointed out, elected officials tend to show a preference for dramatic and visible, yet static measures. Current responses grew out of a need to be seen to act and convince the public that security is ensured. Particularly in the wake of 9/11, this has led to drastic measures such as the no-liquids policy for carry-on luggage in passenger air travel. Focusing on regulating the process rather than the outcomes, the target-hardening approach limits the flexibility of security providers to respond to dangerous persons or cargo, and thoroughly changing threats or new intelligence. Since assessing risks to focus efforts where they we live in open, target-rich societies, this is are needed most. not ideal. It is time to thoroughly rethink the key principles of security policy. the importance of public acceptance

“We want to make sure to get the most out The idea is to move from target-hardening Security measures should contribute to a of every dollar we spend towards risk-based security policies. This positive perception of security. Passengers on security.” Earl Agron, APl limited implies a shift of focus from trying to protect are more willing to cooperate if security vulnerable objects towards identifying measures are not perceived as irrational, Moderator: Axel Goehr, Director Air Transport Policy, German Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Affairs

passenger facilitation requiring them to design measures with public acceptance in mind. In this context it is hard to explain why airport security confiscates all kinds of pointy objects while allowing passengers to take large glass bottles from duty-free stores into the cabin, the shards of which would make dangerous weapons.

The full-body scanner, on the other hand, is an example of a good innovation. It is much more effective than pat-down inspections of which, the effectiveness depends strongly on personnel, and to conventional metal detectors that fail to detect non- metallic weapons such as plastic and liquid explosives. Unfortunately, the public acceptance for these scanners is quite low, 71 perhaps partly because of media emphasis on their downsides instead of their potential to provide smoother security services.

It is important to inform the public that 100% security will never be reached by any means. This requires open communication, showing that risk-based approaches are effective yet admitting they fall short of eliminating security risks entirely. The gap between security and perceived security needs to narrow. wasteful or pointless, but deemed necessary and effective. “Whilst the public One of the most prominent risk-based recognise that these things have to be done, measures in passenger aviation, the so- and are willing to comply, they also need to called ‘registered traveller’, has not been “It all comes down understand that there is some logic behind implemented anywhere so far. The concept to: is there a positive the initiatives that have been introduced”, is that volunteers provide information to perception of security? Is there a positive David Widdowson noted. allow security authorities to run background deterrence, as well, checks. Registered travellers benefit by for a terrorist to effect an act?” Airport authorities, for example, need being subjected to minimised security Mark Miller, cotEcnA to reconcile security measures and procedures. This frees resources for tighter security where risks are higher. The policy because it diverts resources from areas would also facilitate the introduction of full- where risks are higher. body scanners, as not all passengers will be subject to them. Towards a multilateral approach

Risk-based approaches such as random Security is a global issue that calls for global and intelligence-based screening, as well measures. In fact, businesses and countries “Security is like an as so-called ‘known shipper’ policies are have no choice but to comply with a large insurance: when you emerging in the field of cargo transport number of poorly coordinated parallel need the insurance, it’s too late to sign and in maritime and surface transport. security initiatives usually at a high cost to the contract.” The Authorised Economic Operator them and their customers, and citizens. Vlad Olteanu, ACI Europe (AEO) program within the World Customs Organisation (WCO) for example, allows Mutual recognition or a more comprehensive businesses to signal their low risk profile. multilateral approach could reduce Although the AEO-status will not generally compliance costs and the cost of providing lead to exemption from all other security security overall. Initiatives such as those programs, as different layers in the security in the WCO or the Transport Security 72 system address different dimensions of Coordination Group of the EU and the US are risk, layered and risk-based systems such steps towards multilateralism. However, the as these deserve encouragement. In any ideal of a global ‘one-stop security’ system case they are very good substitutes for is not within mid-term reach. Countries have extreme policies such as 100% scanning of different interpretations of WCO guidelines containers, which, even if it proves feasible, concerning issues that are difficult to might actually reduce overall security resolve in an area as sensitive as security.

“If we want to choose the approach of target-hardening, then we basically have to harden everything.” Robert Poole, Reason Foundation Who pays and who should pay? incentives for supplying security 73

Financing mechanisms for aviation security Supply chains are complex and evolve are diverse with more emphasis placed quickly. Security needs to be embedded on general revenue funding in the US and in the operation of the chain, and should on user charges in the EU. The financing be seen as an added value. Procedures of supply chain security is not very should be resilient and flexible, implying transparent, but compliance costs tend to that regulation cannot be strongly be borne by supply chain operators and prescriptive. their customers as well as by government. Supply chain operators are interested Given that the benefits of security accrue in clear regulations as they help them to the general public as well as to travellers decide on how to invest and work towards or end-users of supply chain operations, a effective security provision. A clear and mixed approach is defensible. However, a common regulatory requirement also user-pays oriented approach holds more avoids competition on security issues potential for incentives to save costs, and and facilitates the operation of alliances. spend revenues effectively. As Mark Miller noted: “The challenge is to try to reduce the complexity, while at Compliance with security requirements can the same time addressing the security involve large fixed costs, which are harder to issues. That is the important task of bear for smaller firms or countries, and may the governmental side talking to the worsen their competitive position. private sector.” harald Díaz-Bone Senior International Civil Servant, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Jos Dings Director, European Federation for Transport and Environment

christian Dumas Vice President of Sustainable Development and Eco-Efficiency, Airbus

Jasper Faber CE Delft, Netherlands

74 Yoshitsu hayashi Director, International Research Centre for Sustainable Transport and CIties, Nagoya University, Japan Raphael von heereman Head of Aeropolitical Affairs, Hapag-Lloyd Flug GmbH, Hannover

Per Kågeson Director, Nature Associates, Sweden

Andy Kershaw Manager of Environmental Policy, British Airways, UK

Per Magne Einang Marintek –SINTEF

75 callum thomas Professor of Sustainable Aviation, Manchester Metropolitan University

Workshop 5: Environmental impacts of international transport Workshop 5: Environmental impacts of international transport

Globalisation has accelerated economic co2 emission trends in both sectors are growth and changed patterns of out of phase with co2 reduction policies transport, resulting in increased agreed internationally movement of both passengers and freight Limiting global warming to 2 degrees

over long distances. The downside of Celsius (approximately 450 ppm CO2) by the this growth is the significant increase in end of the century implies steeply declining emissions of air pollutants, greenhouse emission trajectories for developed gases, and other environmental impacts. economies. It is unlikely that the targets Conversely, the wealth generated makes associated with these trajectories (e.g.~80% it possible to reduce these impacts reduction by 2050) can be met without considerably with tools for cleaner the strong implication of the aviation and technologies and better management maritime sectors. of resources. The instruments chosen to implement environmental protection there is a clear technical potential to further reduce co2 emissions from should be designed to maximise welfare air and maritime transport and reduce pollution as cost-effectively as possible. Fuel consumption improvements of 15-20% 76 per aircraft generation can be expected This highly solution-oriented workshop and are a commercial necessity in the examined opportunities for reducing current market – though aircraft product emissions in aviation and maritime cycles can span two decades. transport, and explored how best these potentials might be met. Similarly new maritime vessel fuel efficiency improvements are potentially around 10- Both maritime and aviation sectors have 50% but average vessel life is close to three achieved considerable improvements in decades, and so it will take time for these energy efficiency, leading to reduced improvements to cycle through the fleet. real transport costs, in turn increasing demand Alternative fuels such as Liquid Nitrogen Gas (LNG) for shipping, and biofuels Aviation and shipping have a natural for aviation could represent important imperative to reduce fuel burn for both cost potential lower-carbon fuel sources for and logistical reasons. This is even more crucial vessels and aircraft. for the aviation sector due to the inherent and Emissions trading can in principal deliver essential energy requirements associated cost-effective emission reductions with carrying fuel aloft i.e. the lack of en route

“For this deal to fuelling stations. This has created a strong There was a consensus in the workshop succeed, it is essential focus on technologies that contribute to this that some form of global market to have the finance aim. Both sectors have achieved considerable mechanism will be necessary in order for ministries on board.” Jasper Faber, cE Delft energy efficiency gains, with competition aviation and shipping to reduce or offset

energizing the drive for improvements. their CO2 emissions. Both fuel levies and Moderator: Anthony Venables, Professor of Economics, Oxford University, UK emissions trading are being considered in The Aviation Global Deal proposes an international forums. international system with differentiated participation rules according to trip origin Experience within the European Trading and destination. Regional approaches have System has shown that trading systems already been agreed (e.g. aviation included are only as strong as their weakest link – in the European Trading System from 2012). protection of the latter in order to avoid Incentives for non-participating countries carbon leakage erodes the effectiveness of to join trading systems could be provided by, “Aviation must play its the system. Partially ring-fenced trading for example, making new poor and emerging fair share in dealing may be one approach to address this, economy entrants eligible for adaptation with emissions and in contributing to global though in principal this should only be a and mitigation funds generated by trading. emissions reductions.” transitory measure. Andy Kershaw, British Airways and Aviation A trading system would generate global Deal, UK With regard to global versus regional considerable revenues, which may or may trading, the workshop broadly concurred not be spent on transport. Allocation of these that international aviation and maritime revenues to an international adaptation and transport should be treated on a consistent mitigation fund (if agreed by the UNFCCC) global basis; schemes might result in reduced would be one way to get finance ministries 77 regional commerce but should soon be rolled to agree to a partial hypothecation of the out internationally. funds that industry would like to see.

“Although it would be ideal to start with a global scheme covering emissions in all parts of the world it might be necessary to start with a regional scheme that is gradually expanded into international coverage.” Per Kågeson, nature Associates 78

Modal Workshops 79

These summaries are published on the responsibility of each partner organisation. The opinions expressed and arguments employed do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Transport Forum or of its member countries. normand Boivin candan Karlıtekin Vice President of Airport CEO, Turkish Airlines Operations, Montréal Pierre-Elliott Trudeau International Airport

tim clark catherine lang President, Emirates Airline Acting Associate Administrator for Airports, Federal Aviation Authority, USA

nick Fincham hans-Martin Director of Economic niemeier Regulation and Competition Professor of Economics, Policy, Civil Aviation Authority, Bremen University of United Kingdom Applied Sciences

David hamm Director of Corporate Jos nijhuis Real Estate, Delta Air Lines, Amsterdam Airport Atlanta Schiphol 80 Karl-Rudolf Rupprecht Ulrich Stockmann Head of Hub Management, MEP Lufthansa, Frankfurt

Stefan Schulte Rapporteur: Vice-Chairman of the David thompson Executive Board, Independent Expert Fraport AG

Dominic Schuster Formerly Manager of Avia- tion Pricing and Economics, Sydney Airports Corportion Limited

hartmut Spickermann Deputy Director-General for Civil Aviation and Aerospace, Federal Ministry of Transport, Germany 81

organised with:

Modal Workshop 1: gateway Airport investment and Development of Airline Services for a global Economy Modal Workshop 1: gateway Airport investment and Development of Airline Services

The workshop, chaired by Jeff Shane, examined the development of gateway infrastructure for aviation. It focussed on financing airport infrastructure through airport charges in light of the competitive interaction between airports and airlines. Participants discussed the circumstances in which pricing and investment should be regulated, and how this might be successfully done.

The workshop brought together airlines, airports, and regulators to explore ways to improve the functioning of the aviation industry to ensure adequate airport infrastructure. The exchange focussed on ensuring that in the future airport charges 82 foster airport and airline development that best serves the interests of both air passengers and the wider community.

Until recently, most airports were owned and managed by public authorities. Since the mid-1980s, however, a growing number of airports have been fully or partially privatised. This development has driven airports – even publicly owned ones – to become more commercialised and hence more profit oriented. development in a sector where in certain Transport infrastructure is essential circumstances airports have market power for economic growth. Adequate airport and might abuse this position. “A sound and reliable capacity, where it is needed most, is regulatory environment crucial to allowing the global economy to Market power and regulation is one of the key elements for a safe, grow. Present regulatory arrangements secure and economically are not efficient because the airline and Though market power may exist in some successful aviation market.” airport markets have changed enormously circumstances it is not inherent to any hartmut Spickermann, over recent years. There is room for particular category of airport and probably Federal Ministry of improvement. The challenge is to create not present in most airports. Diagnosing transport, germany conditions for efficient infrastructure where there is the potential for market Moderator: Jeff Shane, Partner, Hogan and Hartson LLP

a regulator that is independent and accountable, operating under a transparent set of rules and objectives. The regulator should have the flexibility to apply regulation where necessary, and only where necessary, reflecting variations in market power across markets and over

time. The purpose of economic regulation “We at Schipol is to protect consumers from abuse of Airport really love market power, where dominance cannot our regulators, but sometimes a little voice be dealt with through general competition in my head says: ‘Why law. This should be its only objective. so many?’” Jos nijhuis, Schiphol group “We have a very sophisticated and effective means of regulating anticompetitive behaviour across all sectors of the European economy. It makes no sense to add additional regulation over and above 83 that, unless there is a market power problem that is much more than the problem that legislation is designed to deal with.” nick Fincham, Director of Economic Regulation and Competition Policy, Civil Aviation Authority, United Kingdom

Competition is the preferred means to control market power. Yet, it is currently not strong enough to make regulation redundant. Increasing competition through more open power abuse requires an evidence-based, skies agreements and a gradual extension case-by-case examination of the scope of, of the use of market-based approaches to and scope for, competition in the current allocating landing rights could reduce the circumstances, airport by airport. It is number of airports that require regulation. important that regulatory intervention only occurs where it is actually needed Purely administrative allocation of slots “Cost-based regulation as it is costly in terms of administrative carries the risk of creating disincentives is a major cause for the poor performance of effort and altering the market. for investment in airport capacity and airports.” robs the market of information on the hans-Martin niemeier, University of Applied Aviation requires economic regulation, value of capacity at busy airports where Sciences, Bremen and to be fully effective this requires slots are scarce. “It’s fine to say we don’t need any regulation, Price caps have the advantage of leaving 84 but then we need the right of ownership of pricing structures to the airport but are the slots, we have to have the right to charge less transparent. In either case, regulation the end customer directly or to charge peak should be based on forward costs, not prices. If there is no acceptance on this, then historical costs, in order to provide for we need some kind of cost plus, WACC-based investment incentives. A number of regulation, otherwise we have no incentive regulators are beginning to experiment to set up additional infrastructure.” with this key reform. It follows that the Dr. Stefan Schulte, Chairman of the prices for aviation services should be able executive board, Fraport AG to rise above current costs in periods of scarcity of capacity when capital needs to All regulatory controls on the pricing of be raised for investment. They can also be aviation services carry the risk of getting expected to fall below costs when there is investment incentives wrong. This is excess capacity, although for long-term particularly true of cost plus regulation, where agreements with airlines average costs airports are allowed to charge rates that remain relevant. cover their costs, plus a ‘fair rate-of-return’. “I think there will be cooperation between airlines and a move to examine This type of regulation, which goes back to airports exactly what alliances the Chicago Convention of 1944, provides do and how they operate to ensure that them with little incentive not to be wasteful. Close cooperation between airlines and the consumer is not Even if they spend more than necessary, they airports is essential to meeting demand compromised in any other way.” still earn the same profit. This creates an and providing good quality services. tim clark, Emirates incentive for gold plating or making unwise, Agreements between airlines and airports but capital-intensive investments. on pricing, investment, and levels of service are frequently employed to manage impact of alliances in international as well as business risks. Such agreements can national markets, on a case-by-case basis. carry risks of discrimination in the access to airport facilities given to other airlines, Liberalisation of aviation markets has although instances of this are unusual. contributed to accelerating globalisation. The agreements need to be transparent This combined with privatisation of most and subject to monitoring by regulators. airlines and now many airports has changed aviation markets rapidly and profoundly. Alliances between airlines, with some of the Regulatory models have tended to evolve members holding such agreements with more slowly and need reform if they are not airports, account for an increasing share to become a drag on global growth. of the world passenger market and merit increased monitoring by regulators. National Much remains to be learned for improved competition authorities hold sufficient regulation and there is much to be gained from powers to address international alliances exchanging experience between regulators, but regulators need to pay attention to the airports, and airlines around the world.

85 Janusz lacny President of JMJ–TRANS and President of the International Road Transport Union

Pierre latrille Counsellor, Trade in Services Division, World Trade Organisation (WTO)

Kunio Mikuriya Secretary General, World Customs Organisation (WCO)

86 Eva Molnar Director of Transport Division, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE)

graham Smith President, Passenger Transport Sector, IRU

organised by:

Modal Workshop 2: Road transport: Promoting global trade, travel and Development Modal Workshop 2: Road transport: Promoting global trade, travel and Development

The joint ITF-IRU Workshop brought governments at national and international together ministerial, business, and academic levels to support the road transport representatives, as well as high-level industry. These measures include: speakers from the WTO, WCO, and UNECE. • Introducing real business incentives for The discussion revolved around two central safer and cleaner vehicles; questions: • Modifying insolvency legislation to allow • How can promoting and facilitating road road transport companies in economic

“No country is land- transport drive trade, tourism, progress, distress to reduce transport capacity locked for road and prosperity? and pursue profitable business transport.” • How can international regulatory tools operations only; Janusz lacny, iRU President be used to benefit trade, travel, and road • Inducing financial institutions to transport? provide adequate credit lines to transport operators; Road transport and the downturn • Reassessing and reducing current taxes; • Ensuring open markets and striving for Government and industry data draw a the completion of the WTO Doha round; bleak picture, pointing to a decrease in road 88 freight transport activity of up to 50%, a doubling of bankruptcies, a dramatic increase in unemployment (permanent or temporary layoffs), which already amounts to 140 000 jobs in the EU, 120 000 jobs in the CIS and 200 000 jobs in North America. IRU President, Janusz lacny, stated: “Road transport, in this time of economic crisis, can help drive economic recovery. But it needs to be promoted and further facilitated by appropriate governmental measures to be taken urgently – as for the banks – at the national and international level in order not to repeat the historical errors of the Great Depression of the “We still have a long 1930s, where the economic crisis was way to go before we exacerbated by the halt in transport and – public and private partners – can claim trade.” that we have placed buses, coaches and Measures to support the road transport taxis at the heart of industry≈ the policy attention and care.” Mr Lacny identified a series of regulatory graham Smith, iRU and fiscal measures to be implemented by Moderator: Umberto de Pretto, Deputy Secretary General, IRU

• Intensifying efforts to eliminate neo- level cannot be deteriorated and making protectionist barriers to international this level available as a minimum to all WTO road transport. Members.

The passenger road transport sector also The World Customs Organisation (WCO) suffers from shrinking tourist demand. shares with IRU the common objective of graham Smith, IRU Vice President, reducing the time needed for completing the appealed to policy decision makers at border procedures. “I would like to cooperate “EU road freight local, national or international level to fully further with the IRU to create synergies transport liberalisation has been a success support the industry by doing away with that will assist to identify bottlenecks and story. This is one of the artificial barriers, such as unjustified bans potential solutions by utilizing tools of best practices in the on entering touristic cities or unfounded both organisations” Kunio Mikuriya, WCO global kaleidoscope.” Eva Molnar, UnEcE driving and rest time restrictions. Secretary General, elaborated. the new Eurasian land transport Eva Molnar pointed out that countries initiative (nElti) could help their enterprises become more competitive by offering low transaction costs Announced as a ‘reality check’ on where and time, and high levels of predictability we stand in the field of road transport 89 and reliability. This particularly applies to facilitation, igor Rounov, General Delegate the two main areas of shippers’ concerns, to the CIS Region (IRU) presented a border crossing, and transit conditions. short video clip on the New Eurasian Land Transport Initiative (NELTI). He reported Multilateral approaches that Euro-Asian road infrastructure does not present a major impediment to On the multilateral field, Pierre latrille commercial haulage, and encouraged drew attention to two World Trade governments to remove existing bottlenecks Organisation (WTO) tools, which may and create a ‘green light’ for the movement facilitate road transport: GATT and of trucks between Europe and Asia. GATS. Within the framework of GATT, a newly planned WTO Agreement on The panellists agreed that road transport “Road transport has no trade facilitation will increase trading has to be facilitated, notably through the ‘group of friends’ in the GATTS. This may reflect opportunities significantly, reduce ratification and global implementation of a kind of cautiousness transaction costs, speed up border crossing the UN Conventions (TIR, ADR, AETR CMR of your trade and procedures, and create a more transparent, and Harmonization of Frontier Controls), as transport ministry negotiators towards predictable and efficient environment well as the use of the Web-based applications liberalisation in road that reduces discrimination. GATS recently developed by the IRU to allow transport because there is a tradition of commitments guarantee the conditions of governments to meet their UN and EU bilateralism and – up operation of foreign services suppliers at obligations (TIR Electronic Pre-Declaration, to a certain extent– of protectionism.” a certain negotiated level of market access IRU real-time SafeTIR and the IRU Border Pierre latrille, Wto and national treatment, ensuring that this waiting Time Observatory). hartmut Albers Juliusz Engelhardt CEO, Trans Eurasia Undersecretary of Logistics State, Polish Ministry of Infrastructure

Ed Burkhardt camiel Eurlings President of Rail World Minister of Transport, Inc. of Chicago, Illinois Public Works and Water Management, Netherlands

Michael clausecker Francisco José Director–General, UNIFE cardoso dos Reis CEO, Portuguese Railways

90 Bert Klerk Moritz leuenberger Chairman, ProRail, Federal Councillor, Head Netherlands of the Federal Department of Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications, Switzerland

Eberhard von Koerber Mauro Moretti Manager and Vice CEO, Ferrovie dello Stato President, Club of Rome

Klaus Kremper CEO, DB Schenker

organised by:

Modal Workshop 3: Railways in a globalised World Modal Workshop 3: Railways in a globalised World

This workshop addressed the subject of how for emissions reductions. Furthermore, 92 railways can contribute to solving the dual investment provides opportunities to challenges of the financial crisis and climate alleviate unemployment, both supporting change. The competitiveness of rail also came infrastructural development and in relation under scrutiny, with indications on how the to maintenance of new rolling stock. position might be improved, in particular on Currently rail is constrained in its ability to international freight corridors. compete with road, but development of both new high-speed lines and conventional freight Panellists agreed on the major advantage of routes would increase the attractiveness of rail in reducing carbon emissions, as well as its rail. Investments can be directly linked to long-term role in economic growth. However, it targets for emission reduction. Francisco was felt that rail is hampered by disparities in José cardosco dos Reis of Portuguese infrastructural investment when compared to Railways (CP) cited targets of 35% reduction the road sector, as well as nationally derived in passenger rolling stock emissions and technical and administrative differences. 80% in freight from CP’s current investment The latter frustrates cross-border services in new rolling stock. “Transport of 100 and consequently impedes international tonnes of goods from competitiveness. Investment should come Three inextricably linked challenges are Basel, Switzerland to Rotterdam, Netherlands from both the private and public sector and presented by the financial crisis, energy by train produces 87% will help facilitate a ‘level playing field’ relative supply, and climate change. Focusing less CO2 emissions than the transport of the to the automotive sector. specifically on climate change and the same amount by road.” ‘green recovery’, Mr von Koerber of the Eberhard von Körber, Rail has an important role to play in Club of Rome was hopeful that the emotion club of Rome tackling the European Union’s objectives generated by the current crisis could be Moderator: Eva Molnar, Director Moderator: of Transport Division, Dr. Friedrich Thelen, United Nations Thelen-Consult Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) used constructively. Over 4 trillion dollars Policy makers can contribute not only by of stimulus packages provide a unique committing to investment, but also ‘levelling opportunity. Yet the proportion of funding the playing field’, for example, removing VAT allocated to rail is not representative of its from rail fares. environmental contribution. At a European level only 1.8% of all ‘green investment’ is Being a national entity is both a strength allocated to rail. In Germany this amounts and a weakness for railways explained to 1.3 billion euros (1.6%) of an €80 billion Moritz leuenberger, Minister of Transport, “Every single passenger package, demonstrating public investment Switzerland. In Switzerland, there is a great that shifts mode from the plane to the train clearly favours roads. Since 1970, rail deal of national pride in railway punctuality reduces their carbon infrastructure has declined, whereas and engineering. This is seen as a positive footprint by 90%.” Michael clausecker, the road network has tripled in size. The advantage in the sense that the public has UniFE implications are that either the railway shown its support for rail, voting in favour industry is falling short in its lobbying of infrastructural developments such as approach, or that the environmental the Trans-Alpine rail projects. Railways leverage of rail is underestimated. Yet, are also seen as positively contributing facts demonstrate the clear environmental to employment. On the downside, border argument in favour of rail. crossings remain hampered by both 93 administrative and technical discrepancies, Switzerland provides an excellent example and ETCS is not yet working at a Pan- of how political will can shift the paradigm European level. The question that remains in favour of rail, with a rail freight market is whether governments can legislate over share of 40%, as compared to 16.8% in rest the subject of mobility, an entrenched of Europe. Furthermore, private investment individual desire, which is currently shaped needs to be coupled with public sector and dominated by the automotive industry funding for the sector. in many states.

Representing the rail industry association Representing independent railway infra- UNIFE, Michael clausecker pointed to structure managers, Bert Klerk of ProRail evidence of investments in infrastructure fully endorsed investment in rail as a means having a direct correlation with economic to support economic recovery, and to help growth and increased demand. Investment reduce the transport sector’s CO2 footprint. “If we want to use in the high-speed network in Spain has been In the EU alone, transport is responsible for the current crisis to have a sustainable, accompanied by 2.5% economic growth. 27% of CO2 emissions, of which over 70% environmentally Both Paris to London and Brussels to London are generated by road transport. Unlike friendly political rail routes have a market share in excess of other sectors, transport emissions continue framework for railways, we need 70%. The Madrid to Barcelona high-speed to grow, as individual mobility cannot be certain rules.” line, opened a year ago and already has a controlled. Although rail is ‘green’ and has Moritz leuenberger, Minister of transport, market share of 53%; these investments a substantial upper hand, performance can Switzerland also benefit the environment. still be improved. Investment is taking place in many member competitive advantage, through both political states. Both France and Spain are investing will and simplified cross-border processes. in the expansion of high-speed rail while Germany is implementing ERTMS on freight Whilst political discussions are working corridors. In the UK, there are plans for towards the removal of both technical new high-speed projects and electrification and administrative bottlenecks, national of the busiest lines, and the Netherlands has borders are still a constraint to the launched a 140 million euro acceleration efficient passage of railfreight, with only “If this focus takes place, rail will emerge package targeting the rail sector. However, 60% of goods arriving on time. The sector more competitive whilst Europe is progressing with investment needs to be stronger to compete, not only after the crisis.” Klaus Kremper, DB in this respect, China leads the way. by investing but also by ensuring better Schenker use of existing infrastructure, according to ProRail and the Club of Rome agree that camiel Eurlings, Minister of Transport for technical compatibility continues to limit the Netherlands. international interoperability and resolving issues can take a considerable period of time. Mr Eurlings advocated the development of rail corridors across Europe, from 94 Discussions surrounding competition North to South and East to West, pointing endorsed the involvement of the private to the example of Rotterdam, Duisburg, sector to increase liberalisation, although Basel and Geneva, as a model for potential Portuguese national operators (CP) throughout Europe. Klaus Kremper, CEO pointed to their social duty to protect their DB Schenker, agreed that rail is a desirable workforce which automatically limits true form of transport for long distance, but competitiveness. Mr Leuenberger pointed requires interoperability. Mauro Moretti, out that shifting traffic to rail also alleviates CEO of Italian State Railways (FS) and CER road congestion. Mr Clausecker from Chairman, also spoke of the challenge of UNIFE stated that prices influence market interoperability between national system, behaviour, highlighting the Swiss example suggesting that to overcome these issues, of taxes on trucks that has resulted in a investment at a European level would be 30% reduction in empty trucks, and the required, transcending national investment. congestion charge in London reducing cars on the roads by 25%. If rail is to increase its share of the rail freight market, it needs to focus on the 3 main issues If rail freight services are to compete on that impede rail’s competitiveness, namely “Rail should win on its routes between Western Europe, Russia technical, administrative and commercial own merits and become and Asia, there have to be regular, reliable constraints. truly competitive in the international market.” services, hartmut Albers, Managing Director camiel Eurlings, Trans Eurasia Logistics confirmed, also The rail sector in Europe is guilty of Minister of transport, netherlands pointing out the considerable potential to not applying best practice in its use of reduce journey times and therefore increase technology, Ed Burkardt, president of Rail World Inc., stated. Mr Burkardt pointed base to facilitate transport between the to examples of technologies used in North east and west. America such as increased axle loads and vehicle lengths, cast wheels, automatic In the example of Germany, DB has worked couplers, and automated cross border hard to improve its competitiveness in documentation processes. anticipation of potential privatisation. With 300 competitors in Germany, DB has still The development of inter-European managed to be successful. Nevertheless, “Given the low rail travel is a long standing issue, yet DB has only 25% of the intermodal market environmental footprint, problems persist with signalling and in Europe, therefore most of the traffic is the best contribution the rail sector can make language systems for drivers as well still road-based. to the environment is to as harmonisation of driver licences, increase its share of the transport market. The Mr Enkelhardt, Undersecretary of Rail should be more competitive, but climate is right for rail.” State, Polish Ministry of Infrastructure, currently it does not operate on a level Bert Klerk, ProRail stated. Varying track width is another playing field. Its marketing should be consideration that impacts the Trans- improved and technical improvements Siberian railway network, yet there is a created, but fundamentally there is a lack of impetus to develop an automatic need for improved European legislation in 95 gauge changing system. Poland is a good relation to internalising costs. Simon Bennett Secretary, International Chamber of Shipping (ICS)

till Braun Senior Manager, Germanischer Lloyd AG

Mark Brownrigg Director-General, UK Chamber of Shipping

96 colin cridland Head of Market Analysis, Clarksons

Jörg habicht Director of Regulatory Affairs and Compliance, Hapag Lloyd AG

Miguel Palomares Director of the Marine Environment Division, International Maritime Organization

organised by:

Modal Workshop 4: international Shipping: global Regulations for a global industry Modal Workshop 4: International Shipping: Global Regulations for a Global Industry

In recent years, the global shipping industry of Shipping (ICS) and the International has enjoyed an exceedingly buoyant trading Maritime Organisation (IMO). period, for many markets the best in living memory. This period, however, came The global role of shipping to a sudden and dramatic end when the current economic crisis severely impacted As shipping is inherently dependent on the the shipping industry. Despite the current economy, the drop in trade, following the crisis, the shipping industry needs to beginning of the credit crunch in late 2008, “The shipping industry must prepare for a avoid resorting to protectionist measures. has translated into a dramatic reduction in very rough ride in 2009 Equally, there is an ongoing imperative to demand for shipping. and possibly in 2010.” Jörg Habicht, reduce carbon emissions – an urgency all Hapag Lloyd sectors have to address independent of The first to be impacted was container volatile markets. shipping. By spring 2009, some 10% of the fleet was already redundant. This was These areas of concern were addressed in the followed by a downfall in dry bulk trade workshop’s two sessions – the first focussing volumes and, by April 2009, aa sharp on the global role of shipping, and the second decrease in requirements for crude, 98 on energy efficiency. The workshop was product, and chemical tankers. chaired by Tom Leander, editor of Lloyd’s List, and organised by the International Chamber States may be inclined to respond to the crisis with protectionist measures, a major concern for the ICS national shipowners’ associations, who urge governments to avoid such steps, as they would only serve to further damage world trade.

The shipping industry faces the additional challenge of being one of the very few industries not covered by a global multilateral trade agreement. And the prospect of a new agreement under the auspices of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) looks increasingly uncertain. The industry must therefore be vigilant in responding to any moves towards protectionism in maritime trading, including those using safety and security as a pretext.

The shipping industry is calling for a regulatory ‘level playing field’ to enable it Moderator: Tom Leander, Editor, Lloyds List

to operate competitively and efficiently. The industry hopes that the UNFCCC will Furthermore, it calls for the reliability agree that the development of detailed now provided by the tonnage tax regime measures relating to carbon emissions for applying to shipowners in many countries shipping should be developed and enacted to be maintained throughout the crisis. by the IMO.

Facing both environmental and economic Industry points to already significant pressures, there is likely to be a considerable achievements in this regard: The amount “Shipping’s global increase in the number of older vessels being of CO emitted per tonne-mile of cargo importance can not be 2 underestimated as it dismantled and recycled. To this end, there carried by sea has been steadily reduced, literally underpins world is increasing pressure on governments and ships have increased their efficiency trade and the global economy.” to identify facilities acceptable for this more than any other transport mode. To Miguel Palomares, iMo purpose. However, financial pressures must put the current level of carbon emissions not be allowed to reduce standards, which from shipping into perspective, the Second have seen considerable progress in the IMO GHG Study 2009 estimated it to be last 20 years with regard to safety and approximately 870 million tonnes annually, environmental performance. which accounts for just 2.7% of the global total figure. 99 Notwithstanding the current economic challenges, it was widely acknowledged In preparation for the coming talks within that the long-term outlook for the shipping the IMO and the UNFCCC, the industry industry remains highly positive. anticipates additional encouragement for the sector in the form of a financial Energy Efficiency: A priority in a time of economic downturn or market-based instrument to bridge the gap between practical reduction measures Irrespective of the economic downturn, the and political demands. This instrument reduction of carbon emissions is one of the could also be used for offsetting systems most pressing issues facing the world today. such as reforestation or be invested in eco-research for ship design and The shipping industry notes that it is the construction. Opinion as to whether this most fuel-efficient and carbon-friendly could be best achieved through a carbon form of commercial transport, and this trading market or some form of levy was should promote its increased market evenly balanced. share. In terms of environmental aspects, the maritime industry is anticipating the The workshop concluded that reducing next stage of climate change policies, to CO2 in the global shipping industry could be considered at the UN Conference in only be achieved through the introduction Copenhagen (COP 15) in December 2009, of a new non-discriminatory global under the banner of the UN Framework maritime regime, developed under the Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). auspices of IMO. 100

A Focal Point of Exchange 101

A Focal Point of Exchange Prize-Winners 2009

The International Transport Forum awarded two prizes at this year’s Forum in Leipzig: a Young Researcher Award and a Prize for Innovation in Transport and Logistics along the Global Supply Chain.

The Young Researcher Award 2009 was attributed to Jérôme Verny, of the Rouen Business School in France for his paper on “Container Shipping on the Northern Sea and emissions, and improve overall efficiency Route”. of the supply chain in the Benelux region.

In his paper, Jérôme underlines the new Through this initiative, Baxter shifted all of economic geography engendered by the its incoming containers from the deep-sea rapidly increasing mobility of people and ports of Antwerp-Rotterdam and Zeebrugge goods across borders that has emerged since off trucks and onto inland navigation barges. World War II. Jérôme notes that four decades With this container traffic now entirely on 102 of uninterrupted growth in container traffic inland waterways, Baxter has decreased its have raised questions regarding the capacity transport costs by 23%, while maintaining of the traditional international trade network. efficiency through increased reliability – a He looks at issues surrounding the viability of clear preference for consistently on-time the Northern Sea Route as a possible trade deliveries over speed – virtually no congestion

route for containerised goods between Europe costs, and huge reductions in CO2 emissions. and Asia given global warming considerations. The jury also attributed a special Jury The Jury highlighted in particular the Mention to APl logistics, Oakland, California, originality of the approach adopted by Jérôme USA., in recognition of the special attention Verny in his paper and the scientifically- to timely and reliable services offered by the rooted analysis he developed in his research. OceanGuaranteed initiative.

The Prize for innovation in transport and The OceanGuaranteed Service was designed logistics along the global Supply chain to create an ocean-based alternative to was attributed to Baxter international air freight for shippers from Asia to North European Distribution centre, Belgium for American of less-than-container-load (LCL) the ‘Transportation of healthcare products cargo. It offers a faster LCL service with day- by inland navigation’ initiative. The Belgian- definite delivery guarantee not offered before based European distribution centre for to shippers in this geographic zone. Baxter International, a global healthcare company, launched this initiative to improve speed and reliability, lower transport costs Forum Exhibition

list of Exhibitors: • AustriaTech - Gesellschaft des Bundes für technologiepolitische Maßnahmen GmbH • APL Logistics • Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung • Deutsche Bahn AG • Deutsche Lufthansa AG • Deutsche Post DHL • Elsevier • EC – European Commission • Fraport AG • Customs and Tourism Enterprises (GTI) • GVZ Entwicklungsgesellschaft mbH • International Road Federation (IRF) • International Road Transport Union (IRU) • International Transport Forum • Japan International Transport Institute 103 (JITI) • Jérome Verny (Young Researcher Award) • Metropolregion Sachsendreieck • OECD • ROBOT Visual Systems GmbH • 16th ITS World Congress • ThyssenKrupp GfT Bautechnik GmbH • Transport Canada • UNECE Transport Division • Union Internationale des Chemins de Fer (UIC) • UNIFE Field Visits and Social Programme

Interested participants of the ITF 2009 were offered several interesting fieldtrips to nearby places of interest.

Deutsche Post DHL welcomed visitors in its leipzig Mail order centre state-of-the art air hub in Leipzig/Halle. The The Leipzig mail order centre is one of 104 new hub sets industry standards with the the most up to date and largest service largest sorting system in Germany and a providers in the world. Built on the grounds hangar with a floor space of 27 500 square of the former Leipzig-Mockau airport, the metres. It already provides more than 2 000 plant is considered an important reference new jobs. Leipzig/Halle is one of the most point for modern logistics solutions. important hubs in DHL´s global network. In any working day about 50 freight airplanes use the new airport and handle more than 1 000 tonnes of freight.

BMW’s manufacturing plant is one of the most modern automobile manufacturing plants worldwide. Since 2005 the plant manufactures vehicles for customers throughout the world. The production includes the BMW 1 and 3 class – vehicles. A cliMAtE nEUtRAl EVEnt

The emissions resulting from the organisation of the annual International Transport Forum are being offset through a renewable energy programme in eastern China. A wind farm that has been constructed and put into operation in the Fujian Province produces approximately 95,600 MWh of clean electricity per year. children’s University

A popular concept throughout Germany, the A two-way dialogue with Ministers Tiefensee Children’s University aims to engage children and Leuenberger also saw the children polled and adults in a meaningful discussion on on the introduction mandatory helmets for societal issues. cyclists in Switzerland. 105 This year again, Leipzig schoolchildren were bursting with creative ideas, proposing among others: • introducing a range of carbon-neutral cars powered by the effervescence of soda water • flooding city streets to make way for amphibian hydroelectric vehicles the receptions organised by the Leipzig- Halle Airport and the Turkish presidency, as well as a gala dinner on the last evening, allowed the participants to conclude the conference days in a relaxed atmosphere. 20 International 10 Transport Forum

Transport and Innovation the international transport Forum 2010 transport and innovation Unleashing the Potential

26-28 May 2010 in leipzig, germany

transport needs innovation.

Transport is coming out of a deep recession. The 2010 Forum will provide a unique The sector has been hit hard, with company opportunity both to explore these topics closures, job losses and damages to the and to build upon the outcomes of the 2008 supply chains. and 2009 Forums, making linkages between How can it respond? Is innovation in policy climate change, the global downturn and and productivity the key for the sector innovation. emerging stronger from the downturn? Join us to be part of the debate of our 107 The 2010 Forum promises to be exciting, as transport future! we focus on the role of innovation in building the transport sector of tomorrow: For further information on the 2010 Forum: www.internationaltransportforum.org • What makes innovation a driver of sustainable economic growth? • Why does the transport sector need to be innovative now? • Which factors influence innovation in transport? • How can transport innovate to respond to climate change? • Which technological innovations can we expect in the future? • What policy innovations are being considered and implemented? • What are the barriers to innovation and how do we overcome them? Alphabetic list of Speakers

• Agron, Earl – Vice President, Security & Environment, • Faber, Jasper – CE Delft, Netherlands (p. 74-76) APL Limited (p. 68-70) • Fei, Weijun – Deputy Director, Waterborne Transportation • Albanese, Anthony – Minister for Infrastructure, Transport, Institute (p. 54) Regional Development and Local Government, Australia (p. 27-28) • Felber, christian – Speaker, Attac Austria (p. 30-34) • Albers, hartmut – CEO, Trans Eurasia Logistics (p. 90-94) • Fincham, nick – Director of Economic Regulation and • Arndt, Matthew – Head of Rail and Road Division, European Competition Policy, Civil Aviation Authority, United Kingdom Investment Bank (p. 62-66) (p. 80-83) • Attali, Jacques – Economist, Writer (President and Founder, • garber, Stefan – Board Member, Deutsche Bahn AG, Germany PlaNet Finance) (p. 14) (p. 62-65) • Atılgan, cumhur – General Manager, RODER, Turkey (p. 36-39) • goehr, Axel – Director Air Transport Policy, Federal Ministry of • Bakker, Peter – CEO, TNT (p. 30-34) Transport, Building and Urban Affairs, Germany (p. 70-71) • Bennett, Simon – Secretary, International Chamber of • gowing, nik – International Broadcaster and Journalist (p. 43) Shipping (ICS) (p. 96) • grau tanner, carlos – Director, Government and Industry • Bernadet, Maurice – Professeur, Laboratoire d’Economie des Affairs, International Air Transport Association (p. 46-51) Transports, University of Lyon, France (p. 60-61) • grube, Rüdiger – CEO, Deutsche Bahn AG (p. 24-26) • Boivin, normand – Vice President of Airport Operations, • habicht, Jörg – Director of Regulatory Affairs and Compliance, Montréal Pierre-Elliott Trudeau International Airport (p. 80) Hapag Lloyd AG (p. 97-98) • Bonnafous, Alain – Professor of Economics, Laboratoire • haji-ioannou, Stelios – President, easyGroup PLC (p. 30-34) d’Economie des Transports, University of Lyon, France (p. 62) • hamm, David – Director of Corporate Real Estate, Delta Air • Braun, till – Senior Manager, Germanischer Lloyd AG (p. 96) Lines, Atlanta (p. 80) • Brooks, Mary – William A. Black Chair of Commerce, Dalhousie • hayashi, Yoshitsugu – Director, International Research Centre University, Canada (p. 37-38, 54) for Sustainable Transport and CIties, Nagoya University, Japan • Brownrigg, Mark – Director-General, UK Chamber of Shipping (p. 74) (p. 96) • von heereman, Raphael – Head of Aeropolitical Affairs, • Burkhardt, Ed – President of Rail World Inc. of Chicago, Illinois Hapag-Lloyd Flug GmbH, Hannover (p. 75) (p. 90) • hoon, geoff – Secretary of State for Transport, UK (p. 31-34) • Bussereau, Dominique – Secretary of State for Transport, • hunold, Joachim – CEO, Air Berlin (p. 24-28) France (p. 40-43) • ikenson, Dan – Associate Director, Centre for Trade Policy • cardoso dos Reis, Francisco José – CEO, Portuguese Railways Studies, CATO Institute, Washington (p. 58-60) (p. 90) • Jankowski, Maciej – Undersecretary of State, Ministry of • castelli, Roberto – Vice Minister for Infrastructure and Infrastructure, Poland (p. 40-43) Transport, Italy (p. 40-43) • Jeekel, hans – Ministry of Transport, Netherlands (p. 54) • clark, tim – President, Emirates Airline (p. 80-84) • Kågeson, Per – Director, Nature Associates, Sweden (p. 75-77) • clausecker, Michael – Director–General, UNIFE (p. 90-93) • Karlıtekin, candan – CEO, Turkish Airlines (p. 24-27, 80) • cochrane, Robert – Independent Transport Consultant, • Kazatsay, Zoltán – Deputy Director-General for Transport London (p. 60-64) Activities, European Commission (p. 57) • crane, Melinda – International Broadcaster and Journalist • Kershaw, Andy – Manager of Environmental Policy, British (p. 27, 33) Airways, UK (p. 75-77) • cridland, colin – Head of Market Analysis, Clarksons (p. 97) • Klerk, Bert – Chairman, ProRail, Netherlands (p. 41-43, 91-95) • Díaz-Bone, harald – Senior International Civil Servant, United • Kocsis, Andrea – Ver.di Trade Union, Germany (p. 58-61) Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (p. 74) • von Körber, Eberhard – Manager and Vice President, Club of • Díaz-Rato, Enrique – CEO, Cintra (p. 40-42) Rome (p. 91-92) • Dings, Jos – Director, European Federation for Transport and • Kremper, Klaus – CEO, DB Schenker (p. 91-94) Environment (p. 74) • Kubiš, Ján – Executive Secretary, UN Economic Commission for • Dixon, Patrick – Chairman of Global Change Ltd., UK (p. 48-49) Europe (p. 36-39) • Dragnich, george – Executive Director for Social Dialogue, • lacny, Janusz – President of JMJ–TRANS and President of the International Labour Organization (p. 30-34) International Road Transport Union (p. 36-39, 86-88) • Dumas, christian – Vice President of Sustainable Development • lahood, Ray – U.S. Secretary of Transportation (p. 16) and Eco-Efficiency, Airbus (p. 74) • lang, catherine – Acting Associate Administrator for Airports, • Einang, Per Magne – Research Director, Marintek, SINTEF (p. 75) Federal Aviation Authority, USA (p. 80-82) • Engelhardt, Juliusz – Undersecretary of State,Polish Ministry • lapidus, Boris – Vice President, Russian Railways, Russia of Infrastructure (p. 90) (p. 54) • Eurlings, camiel – Minister of Transport, Public Works and • latrille, Pierre – Counsellor, Trade in Services Division, World Water Management, Netherlands (p. 24-29, 90-94) Trade Organisation (WTO) (p. 86-89) • leander, tom – Editor, Lloyds List (p. 98-99) Transport and Energy, European Commission (p. 47-50) • leuenberger, Moritz – Federal Councillor, Head of the • Rupprecht, Karl–Rudolf – Head of Hub Management, Federal Department of Environment, Transport, Energy and Lufthansa, Frankfurt (p. 81) Communications, Switzerland (p. 31-35, 91-94, 105) • Saghir, Jamal – Director of Energy, Transport and Water, • levitin, igor – Minister of Transport, Russian Federation World Bank (p. 47-50) (p. 36-39) • Schouppe, Etienne – Secretary of State for Mobility, Belgium • ludewig, Johannes – Executive Director, Community of (p. 37-39) European Railway and Infrastructure Companies (p. 46-51) • Schulte, Stefan – Vice-Chairman of the Executive Board, • Macdonald of tradeston, lord gus – Chairman, Macquarie Fraport AG (p. 81-84) Capital Europe (p. 41-44, 64-65) • Schuster, Dominic – Formerly Manager of Aviation Pricing and • Mackie, Peter – Professor of Transport Studies, Institute for Economics, Sydney Airports Corporation Limited (p. 81) Transport Studies, University of Leeds (p. 62-65) • Shane, Jeff – Partner, Hogan and Hartson LLP (p. 82-83) • Marmy, Martin – Secretary General, International Road • Sener, Mustafa Sani – CEO, TAV Airports Holding (p. 41-43) Transport Union (p. 46-51) • de Silguy, Yves–thibault – CEO Vinci S.A. (p. 41-44) • Meletiou, Marios – Ports and Transport Sector Specialist, • Smith, graham – President, Passenger Transport Sector, IRU International Labour Organization, Geneva (p. 58-61) (p. 87-89) • Mikuriya, Kunio – Secretary General, World Customs • Smith, graham – Senior Vice President, Toyota Motor Europe Organisation (WCO) (p. 36-38, 86-89) (p. 31-35) • Miller, Mark – Director of Supply Chain Security Europe, • Spickermann, hartmut – Deputy Director-General for Middle East and Africa, COTECNA Inspection SA (p. 68-73) Civil Aviation and Aerospace, Federal Ministry of Transport, • Mohnsen, Karl – CEO, TX Logistik (p. 37-38) Germany (p. 81-82) • Molnar, Eva – Director of Transport Division, United Nations • Stockmann, Ulrich – MEP (p. 81) Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) (p. 87-89, 93) • Stölzle, Wolfgang – Managing Director, Chair of Logistics • Moretti, Mauro – CEO, Ferrovie dello Stato (p. 91-94) Management, University of St Gallen, Switzerland (p. 55-57) • Mukherjee, Arpita – Professor, Indian Council for Research on • tajani, Antonio – Vice President for Transport Policy, European International Economic Affairs (ICRIER), New Delhi (p. 59-60) Commission (p. 18) • niemeier, hans–Martin – Professor of Economics, Bremen • thapar, K. l. – Founder and Chairman, Asian Institute of University of Applied Sciences (p. 80-83) Transport Development (p. 59-66) • nijhuis, Jos – President and CEO, Schiphol Group, Amsterdam • thelen, Friedrich – Moderator (p. 93) (p. 80-83) • thomas, callum – Professor of Sustainable Aviation, • ojala, lauri – Professor and Chair of Logistics, Turku School of Manchester Metropolitan University (p. 75) Economics, Finland (p. 54) • thompson, David – Independent Expert (p. 81) • olteanu, Vlad – Policy Manager, ACI Europe (p. 68-72) • tiefensee, Wolfgang – Federal Minister of Transport, Building • Östling, leif – CEO, Scania (p. 25-28) and Urban Affairs, Germany (p. 7, 10, 25-27, 105) • Palomares, Miguel – Director of the Marine Environment • Venables, Anthony – Professor of Economics, Centre for Division, International Maritime Organization (p. 97-99) Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, Oxford University, UK • Plessis–Fraissard, Maryvonne – Consultant, World Bank (p. 25, 31-35, 77) (p. 59-61) • Visser, caroline – Specialist on Road Finance and Public- • Polemis, Spyros – Chairman, International Chamber of Private Partnerships, International Road Federation (IRF) Shipping (p. 46-50) (p. 63-66) • Poole, Robert – Director of Transportation Policy, Reason • Werner, hans–georg – Board Member, DB Schenker Rail Foundation, Los Angeles (p. 69-72) Deutschland AG, Germany (p. 55-56) • de Pretto, Umberto –Deputy Secretary General, IRU (p. 89) • Widdows, Ronald – CEO, Neptune Orient Lines (p. 25-27, 47-50) • Price, Scott – CEO, DHL Express Europe (p. 37-39, 46-49) • Widdowson, David – CEO, Centre for Customs & Excise Studies, • Raoul, Jean–claude – Chair of the Mobility and Transport University of Canberra, Australia (p. 69-71) Commission, Académie des Technologies, France (p. 55-57) • Wiedemann, Sabine – Vice President of Corporate Security, • Rat, hans – Secretary General, International Association of Deutsche Post DHL (p. 69) Public Transport (p. 47-51) • Wright, Robert – Journalist, Financial Times (p. 38-39) • Rice, John – Vice Chairman, General Electric (p. 25-28) • Yıldırım, Binali – Minister of Transport of Turkey, President of • Rosengren, lars–göran – Vice President of Innovation the 2009 International Transport Forum (p. 7, 8, 47-48) Strategy & Policy, AB Volvo (p. 55-56) • Youssef, Waleed – Chief Strategy Officer, TAV Airports Holding • Rubio, nicolas – Director, Business Development and Technical Inc, Turkey (p. 63-66) Department, Cintra (p. 63) • Ruete, Matthias – Director General for Energy and Transport, Relevant itF Publications to order paper copies contact: www.oecdbookshop.org or www.internationaltransportforum.org

ITF Round Table 143 143 Trends Port ComPetition and in the Hinterland ConneCtionS Transport This round Table publication discusses the policy and regulatory challenges posed by Port competition and hinterland connections sector the rapidly changing port environment.

The sector has changed tremendously in recent How have the passenger and freight decades with technological and organisational E Port ComPetition transport sectors evolved in recent innovation and a powerful expansion of years? And what about road safety? trade. although ports serve hinterlands that T r now run deep into continents, competition

n This publication presents the most among ports is increasingly intense and their and Hinterland ISBN: 9789282102244 up-to-date statistics on transport markets bargaining power in the supply chain has consequently weakened. Integration of supply- Hinterland in International Transport Forum countries chain operations on a global scale has greatly and Com P etition Port ConneCtionS for the period 1970-2007, including charts increased productivity but raises issues of both

C H C E to highlight the major trends. competition and sustainability. Trends a r Concentration among shipping lines and Conne C tionS Published earlier than comparable studies, terminal operators may generate market E this brochure provides the reader with in the power. national competition authorities have s first-hand figures on key transport trends. the power to address this but might not fully E Data are also provided on air and maritime appreciate the international dimension. r Transport Greater port throughput meets with increasing transport as well as on investment and resistance from local communities because of T R O U N D maintenance expenditures undertaken pollution and congestion. In addition, local 143 sector regulation is warranted but made difficult by in the transport sector. the distribution of bargaining power among E L B TA D N U O R TABLE stakeholders. Higher-level authorities could develop more effective policies.

T r a n s p o r 14 3 1970 www.internationaltransportforum.org trends in the transport Sectorwww.internationaltransportforum.org 2007 2007

www.oecd.org/publishing www.oecd.org/publishing 9:HSTCSC=VUVZ^^: 9:HSTCSC=VUWWYY: (74 2009 04 1 P1) ISBN 978-92-821-0159-9 (74 2009 02 1 P1) ISBN 978-92-821-0224-4 2009 ISBN: 9789282101186

25 – 27 October 2006 Berlin Progamme and Registration Information 144 ITF Round Table 144 Terrorism and inTernaTional B e r l i n TransporT: Towards risk-based securiTy policy terrorism and international transport 171 7t ht hInternational International ECMT/OECD Symposium Symposium on Transport on Transport Economics Economics and and Policy Policy security is critical to transport systems as they are often appealing targets for terrorist attacks. The significant costs of potential damage make effective security policies a key concern for E Terrorism and transport decision makers. This round Table examines the contribution economic analysis and Terrorism T r can make to improving security. inTernaTional TransporT: n Tow ISBN: 9789282102244 The analysis covers the impact of uncertainty ards in assessing security policies and on the cost Towards risk-based i n T erna effectiveness of security measures in aviation r isk-based and maritime shipping. Much can be criticised in current policies, which are often seen as C H C E securiTy policy

unduly expensive and inadequately assessed. Transpor T T ional a r This round Table identifies methods for s ecuri T y

quantifying the benefits of security measures E

and assessing their effectiveness, and examines s techniques to allocate resources to targeting E p olicy the highest risks. applying these techniques r Benefiting

would achieve better levels of security : with current resources. T R O U N D 144 from ABLE L B TA D N U O R TABLE globalisationglobalisation

TransportTransport sectorsector contributioncontribution and policy challenges T r a n s p o r 144 and policy challenges www.internationaltransportforum.org Benefiting from globalisation www.oecd.org/publishing 9:HSTCSC=VUWXVW: (74 2009 03 1 P1) ISBN 978-92-821-0231-2 2009 ISBN: 9789282101681

NAL B TIO AN NA K R F E O T R N I

WORLD BANK

E Discussion Paper No. 7 T C N O E N M S P T R O U L C E T E V I D UNECE O competitive interaction between Airports, N A N D Airlines and high-Speed Rail JOINT TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE

Round Table, 2-3 October 2008, Paris

Discussion Paper No. 2009-7 (Preliminary version)

May 2009 document

Seminar on overcoming Competitive Interaction Summary and Conclusions border croSSing obStacleS

between Airports, Airlines Séminaire Sur la levée and High-Speed Rail Seminar on overcoming deS obStacleS au paSSage deS frontièreS Summary and conclusions SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS border crossing obstacles

Intermodal intermodal transport transport TRANSPORT Intermodal Intermodal National Peer Review: TuRkey INFRASTRUCTURE ISBN: 9789282102220 INVESTMENT Turkey is growing fast, owing mainly to Options for Efficiency rapidly increasing trade. In order to facilitate Surface transport plays a fundamental role this trade, efficient logistics and transport in nearly all social and economic activity. Efficiency for Options INVESTMENT: INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSPORT t Intermodal

services are crucial. Yet Turkey is at an ransport Providing and maintaining the infrastructure early stage in developing sophisticated and consumes enormous resources. Thus, it is essential that this be carried out in the most modern logistic services and at present is transport efficient and effective way possible. too dependent on road transport. This book argues that Turkey’s continuing economic Many options are available to provide surface expansion depends on the diversification of transport infrastructure – public ministries and agencies, public-private partnerships its transport modes and especially on the (PPPs), state-owned companies, private and development of efficient multimodal services. non-profit entities, and outright privatisation. There are also various means of paying Turkey’s role as a hub for Europe, Asia, for it, including user charging, subsidies, and the Middle East and as a facilitator of public borrowing or private financing. National Peer Review: Tu Review: Peer National global exchange will be enhanced with a This report examines key principles that strategy and measures to support a range should be considered by governments of intermodal logistic and transport services. in deciding how to provide and pay for TRANSPORT This work analyses the current situation and surface transport infrastructure, with a view to best serving societies’ needs sets forth some of the actions and policies National and employing public resources. It also needed to stimulate the development of a considers the key issues that must be INFRASTRUCTURE truly multimodal transport system. resolved in making more use of private Peer Review: financing and expertise. INVESTMENT R key

TuRkey TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE www.internationaltransportforum.org Options for Efficiency www.internationaltransportforum.org

www.oecd.org/publishing transport infrastructure investmentwww.oecd.org/publishing

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container transport Security Across Modes ISBN: 9789282103319

Discussion Paper No. 8 integration and competition between transport and logistics Businesses

The International Transport Forum 2009 The transport sector is at the heart of 2009 Forum Highlights – Transport for a Global Economy on the “Challenges and Opportunities in the globalisation. At the same time it is clear Downturn” took place at a very difficult time, that the crisis does not alter fundamental with finances drying up, companies failing, challenges, particularly for transport supply chains weakened, and protectionism to be more sustainable and show more on the increase. concrete results in the lead up to and after the December 2009 UN Climate Change There are real fears that the transport Conference in Copenhagen. 20 Forum sector will be seriously damaged by this sudden and profound downturn, with This publication condenses the main findings 09 Highlights important implications for economies and of workshops and round tables bringing societies. One certainty is that transport is together leading figure from politics, industry, more important than it has ever been – in research and civil society on key questions business, in the lives of citizens and in the linking transport, economic recovery, global world economy. trade flows and sustainable development. Transport for a Global Economy Challenges & Opportunities in the Downturn

international transport Forum

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