A look at the world record progressions for the men’s 10,000 and 5,000 meter runs BY CHARLES HOWE

At one time or another, most all sports fans are given to compare the merits of champions and stars from one era to the next. Indeed, it is possible to make a comfortable living as a “sports-talk personality” by moderating and engaging in passionate (if not terribly well-reasoned) debate as to whether Peyton Manning is the better quarterback than Joe Montana or Johnny Unitas, how would have fared against Joe Louis, etc. Occasionally one athlete stands head- and-shoulders above all the rest, such as Michael Jordan in basketball, or Eddy Merckx in cycling, but even this does not bring an end to controversy; fueled by subjective opinion and personal devotion, “discussion” continues ad infinitum , generating heat rather than light. After all, this is something that supposedly makes sport “interesting.”

Mercifully, the mainstream sporting media pays little or no attention to long-distance , but any appreciation of its history cannot help but provoke similar questions: were ’s performances superior to those of Emil Zátopek and ? Are the records of and so far out of line with historic trends that they can only be due to performance-enhancing drugs? By contrast, this article will attempt to objectively evaluate such issues using the succession of world records for the men’s 5,000 and 10,000 meter runs that stretches back over a century.

OBSERVATIONS 10,000 meter progression Since the first officially-recognized performance in 1911, the 10,000 meter world record has been improved by an overall margin of 281.3 seconds, or 15.13%, in 38 performances by 24 athletes (Table 1 ). There have been four identifiable periods of rapid improvement in this progression, each largely or entirely attributable to one athlete:

1. The Paavo Nurmi era: from 6/22/1921 through 8/31/24 (3.19 years), the record was lowered by 52.6 seconds (2.83%), in 4 performances by 2 athletes. Nurmi and each set 2 records, but since Nurmi’s performances were the first and last of the 4, he can be credited with the full improvement.

2. The Emil Zátopek era: from 6/11/1949 through 9/11/56 (7.25 years), the record was lowered by 65.0 seconds (3.66%), in 8 performances by 4 athletes. Zátopek set 5 of the records, totaling 40.2 seconds (2.32%) of improvement.

3. The Ron Clarke era: on 7/14/1965, Clarke broke his 28-day-old record by 34.6 seconds (2.02%), the largest single decrease in the history of the event. Thus, in three performances over 1.57 years, Clarke was responsible for 38.8 seconds (2.28%) of improvement.

4. The Haile Gebrselassie era: from 7/22/1994 through 6/1/98 (4.91 years), the record was lowered by 45.5 seconds (2.79%), in 8 performances by 6 athletes. Gebrselassie set 3 of the records, and the difference between his first and last is 20.8 seconds (1.83%).

These four eras, totaling 16.92 years, represent 16.8% of the 100.55 years that had elapsed (as of June 1, 2012) since the start of the progression, yet they account for 70.8% of all improvement. ► Zátopek broke the record 5 times (4 consecutively), Clarke and Gebrselassie 3, with 5 others tied at 2: , , Taisto Mäki, Nurmi, and Ritola.

► Nurmi’s last record is the longest-standing in the event’s history, at 12.88 years (8/31/1924 through 7/18/37). After that, ’s original record stood 9.60 years; Clarke’s second, 7.13; Bekele’s second, 6.77 (as of 6/1/2012), Gebrselassie’s third, 6.02; and ’s, 5.98. Zátopek held the record continuously for 6.73 years, during which he broke it 4 times. held the record for the shortest period – 5 days.

Nurmi held the record for a combined total of 15.80 years; Bekele 7.99 (as of 6/1/2012); Clarke, 8.71; Gebrselassie, 7.37; Zátopek, 6.95; Mäki, 5.91.

The longest period between record performances by the same individual is the 5.02 years separating Viljo Heino’s 2 records, followed by 4.97 years between Zátopek’s first and fifth.

► The youngest record-setters are Chelimo, 21.36 years; Samson Kimobwa, 21.79; and Bekele, 21.99. The oldest are Viljo Heino, 35.50 years, and , 34.82 years.

The mean age of all record-setters is 27.64 years. Throughout the progression, this rose initially, leveled off from 1937-65, and has fallen precipitously since then: from 1911-1937, it was 28.81years; from 1937-1966, 29.67 years; since 1966, 25.11 years.

► Mean improvement per record is 7.60 seconds (0.44%). Average record longevity is 2.53 years.

► 6 Finns, 6 Kenyans, 2 , 2 , 1 Aussie, 1 Briton, 1 Czech, 1 Frenchman, 1 Hungarian, 1 Mexican, 1 Moroccan, and 1 Portuguese have held the record.

After the initial record in the progression, 5 of the next 6 improvements were made by Finns, meaning this nation was in possession of the record for all but 80 days of the 28.33 year period from 6/22/21 through 10/22/49. has held the record a total of 28.97 years; , for 15.36 years as of 6/1/2012; , 9.70; , 9.60; , 8.70; , 7.27; and Czechoslovakia, 6.95.

5,000 meter progression Since the first officially-recognized performance in 1912, the 5,000 meter world record has been lowered by an overall margin of 119.2 seconds, or 13.60%, in 34 performances by 22 athletes (Table 2 ). There have been three periods of rapid improvement in this progression, each with multiple performances by several athletes, but driven primarily by one individual in particular:

1. The era: from 5/30/1954 through 10/13/57 (3.37 years), the record was lowered by 23.2 seconds (2.77%), in 9 performances by 5 athletes. Kuts set 4 of the records, and the difference between his first and last is 21.6 seconds (2.58%).

2. The Ron Clarke era: from 1/16/1965 through 7/5/66 (1.46 years), the record came down by 18.4 seconds (2.27%), in 5 performances by 2 athletes. Clarke set 4 of the records, and can be credited with all the improvement, since his performances were the first and last in the period.

3. The Haile Gebrslassie era: from 6/4/1994 through 6/13/98 (4.02 years), the record was lowered by 19.0 seconds (2.44%), in 6 performances by 3 athletes. Gebrselassie set 4 of the records, and can be credited with all of the improvement, since his performances were the first and last in the period.

2

These three eras, totaling 8.86 years, represent 9.4% of the 99.89 years that had elapsed since the start of the progression through June 1, 2012, yet they account for 50.5% of all improvement.

► Kuts, Clarke, and Gebrselassie all broke the record 4 times, with 4 others tied at 2: Nurmi, , Henry Rono, and Saïd Aouita.

► Aided by the competitive interregnum of World War II, Gunder Hägg’s record is the longest- standing in the event’s history, at 11.69 years (9/20/1942 through 5/30/54), followed by ’s original record, at 10.17 years; Bekele’s, at 8.00 (as of June 1, 2012); Kuts’s fourth, 7.26; ’s, 6.99; Aouita’s second, 6.87; Clarke’s fourth, 6.20; and Gebrselassie’s fourth, 5.97 years. Lasse Viren held the record for only 6 days, Iharos, 8; and Chris Chataway, 10.

Nurmi held the record for a combined total of 9.77 years; Kuts, 9.02; Gebrselassie, 8.99; Aouita, 8.85; Clarke, 7.07.

The longest period between record performances by the same individual is 4.02 years separating Gebrselassies’s first and fourth, followed by 3.12 years between Kuts’s first and fourth.

► The youngest record-setters are Gebrselassie, 21.13 years, and Bekele, 21.97. The oldest are Zátopek, 31.69 years, and Kuts, 30.68 years.

The mean age of all record-setters is 26.10 years. Throughout the progression, mean age rose slowly but gradually until 1987, when it stood at 26.89 years. The mean age since then is 22.98 years.

► 5 Finns, 4 Kenyans, 2 Ethiopians, 1 Aussie, 1 Belgian, 1 Briton, 1 Czech, 1 Hungarian, 1 Moroccan, 1 New Zealander, 1 Russian, and 1 Swede have held the record.

Finland has held the record a total of 30.21 years, including the first 30.20 years of its official existence; Ethiopia, for 17.00 years as of 6/1/2012; , 11.69; Russia, 9.02; , 8.85; and Australia, 7.07.

► 8 men have held both the 10,000 and 5,000 meter records, all simultaneously: Bekele, Gebrselassie, Clarke, Kuts, Mäki, Rono, Viren, and Zátopek.

Iharos held the 5,000 and 1,500 meter records simultaneously, then the 10,000 and 1,500 meter records at once, while Nurmi held all three at the same time – and set the latter two marks on the same day. Aouita and Hägg held the 5,000 and 1,500 meter records simultaneously.

3 ANALYSIS The larger overall margin of improvement in the 10,000 meter progression (15.13%, vs. 13.60% for the 5,000 meters) supports the view that performance gains from aerobic development are greater than from increases in anaerobic capacity, furthermore, this trend continues in shorter events: over the same period of time, the mile record has been lowered by 12.29%, the 1,500 meters by 12.64%, and the 800 meters by 9.64%. Since there has been one less period of rapid improvement in the 5,000 meters, however, gains in that event have occurred at a faster rate than their counterparts in the 10,000 meters. Similarly, mean age of record-setters generally decreases with the distance covered ( Figure 1 ), up to 800 meters.

The respective improvements of 15.13% and 13.60% in each progression represent increases of 64% and 55% in air resistance, yet both remain quite linear, perhaps reflecting the predominance of gravitational resistance, which is independent of running speed. It can be argued that each progression should show curvature as the upper bound of human athletic endurance performance is approached, if such an absolute limit in fact exists.

Despite the widespread belief that synthetic tracks and improved training methods allowed large improvements in performance from the 1970s onward, both progressions ( Figure 2 and Figure 3 ) stagnated during this period, improving only by 1.90% and 2.72%, respectively, in the 29 years from 1966-94. Both presently lag slightly behind their respective historic trends, as another period of stagnation appears to have begun. Indeed, to merely catch up with the historic linear trends as of June 1, 2012, the 10,000 meter record would have to improve by 29.5 seconds, to 25:48; the 5,000 meter record by 15 seconds, to 12:22.

Only the naïve, the disingenuous, or those in denial refuse to acknowledge the widespread nature of doping across all sports, therefore not just cynics but even the well-informed cast suspicion on most any new record. For instance, Dr. John Hawley, director of the High Performance Laboratory at the South African Sports Science Institute, was asked in 1996 how long he expected the set of world records at that time would last. “If you are asking me what are the limits to human performance, we have already surpassed them. Most of these are drug records.”

Even so, the improvements wrought by Gebrselassie et al. over both distances in the 1990s are not unprecedented. Indeed, the yearly rate of improvement and gain vs. historic trend of this period are less than other eras ( Table 3 ), while the number of record performers and frequency of record-setting from 1993-98 in the 10,000 meters is surpassed by the Kuts era in the 5,000 meters. If any performances are aberrant, it is those of Zátopek and Clarke, two sportsmen whose reputations seem beyond reproach; the latter, for instance, considered it “immoral” to try to win a race without having contributed a fair share of work in setting the pace. What may merit further scrutiny is the depth of performance in each event, i.e., the number of times within a given percentage of the world record, however, this requires further analysis, beyond the scope of the present article.

Those who come under suspicion often complain they cannot disprove rumor and innuendo. Similarly, statistical analysis is unable to prove that most any record is untainted by use of performance-enhancing substances, whether synthetic erythropoietin since the late 1980s, or amphetamines prior to that, however, world record performances in the men’s 10,000 and 5,000 meter runs since 1993 clearly fall within historic trends.

4 FURTHER READING Carbone, V., and S.J. Savaglio. Scaling laws and forecasting in athletic world records. Journal of Sports Sciences 19(7):477-84, July 2001. Davies, C.T. Effects of wind assistance and resistance on the forward motion of a runner. Journal of Applied and Occupational Physiology 48(4):702-9, April 1980. Joyner, M.J. Modeling: optimal performance on the basis of physiological factors. Journal of Applied Physiology 70(2):683-7, February 1991. Layden, T. Distance Thunder. Sports Illustrated 89(3):34-37, 20 July 1998. Mognoni, P., C. Lafortuna, G. Russo, and A. Minetti. An analysis of world records in three types of locomotion. European Journal of Applied and Occupational Physiology 49(3):287-99, 1982. Comment in: European Journal of Applied and Occupational Physiology 52(3):324-7, 1984. Nevill, A.M., and G. Whyte. Are there limits to running world records? Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise 37(10):1785-8, October 2005. Comment in: Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise 38(6):1194, June 2006; author reply, 1195. Peronnet, F., and G. Thibault. Mathematical analysis of running performance and world running records. Journal of Applied Physiology 67(1):453-65, July 1989. Savaglio, S., and V. Carbone. Scaling in athletic world records. Nature 404(6775):244, 16 March 2000. Shanebrook, J.R., and R.D. Jaszczak. Aerodynamic drag analysis of runners. Medicine and Science in Sports 8(1):43-5, Spring 1976. Ward-Smith, A.J. New insights into the effect of wind assistance on sprinting performance. Journal of Sports Sciences 17(4):325-34, April 1999.

5 Table 1. World record data for the men’s 10,000 meter run.

AGE DATE of TIME IMPROVEMENT LONGEVITY No. RECORD SETTER NATIONALITY SITE (years) (years) PERFORMANCE (min:sec.0) Performance Overall vs. trend 38 Kenenisa Bekele Ethiopia 23.20 8/26/2005 , Belgium 26:17.5 0.16% 15.13% -0.59% 6.77* 37 Kenenisa Bekele Ethiopia 21.99 6/8/2004 Ostrava, Czechoslovakia 26:20.0 0.17% 15.00% -0.52% 1.22 36 Haile Gebrselassie Ethiopia 25.12 6/1/1998 , 26:22.7 0.32% 14.85% +0.37% 6.02 35 Kenya 28.18 8/22/1997 Brussels, Belgium 26:27.9 0.22% 14.58% +0.23% 0.77 34 Haile Gebrselassie Ethiopia 24.21 7/4/1997 , Norway 26:31.3 0.42% 14.39% +0.07% 0.13 33 Morocco 24.19 8/23/1996 Brussels, Belgium 26:38.1 0.34% 14.03% -0.14% 0.86 32 Haile Gebrselassie Ethiopia 22.13 6/5/1995 Hengelo, Netherlands 26:43.5 0.54% 13.73% -0.23% 1.22 31 Kenya 24.78 7/22/1994 Oslo, Norway 26:52.2 0.38% 13.27% -0.55% 0.87 30 Kenya 32.38 7/10/1993 Oslo, Norway 26:58.4 0.59% 12.93% -0.70% 1.03 29 Richard Chelimo Kenya 21.36 7/5/1993 , Sweden 27:07.9 0.02% 12.42% -1.21% 0.01 28 26.68 8/18/1989 West , 27:08.2 0.34% 12.40% -0.56% 3.88 27 Portugal 32.67 7/2/1984 Stockholm, Sweden 27:13.8 0.52% 12.10% +0.03% 5.13 26 Henry Rono Kenya 26.41 7/11/1978 , Austria 27:22.4 0.49% 11.64% +0.60% 5.98 25 Samson Kimobwa Kenya 21.79 6/30/1977 , Finland 27:30.5 0.02% 11.21% +0.34% 1.03 24 Dave Bedford Great Britain 23.53 7/13/1973 , England 27:30.8 0.46% 11.19% +1.01% 3.96 23 Lasse Viren Finland 23.12 9/3/1972 , Germany 27:38.4 0.06% 10.78% +0.75% 0.86 22 Ron Clarke Australia 28.39 7/14/1965 Oslo, Norway 27:39.4 2.02% 10.73% +1.93% 7.14 21 Ron Clarke Australia 28.31 6/16/1965 Oslo, Norway 28:14.0 0.09% 8.87% +0.08% 0.08 20 Ron Clarke Australia 26.82 12/18/1963 , Australia 28:15.6 0.15% 8.78% +0.25% 1.49 19 Pyotr Bolotnikov Russia 32.43 8/11/1962 , Russia 28:18.2 0.04% 8.64% +0.34% 1.35 18 Pyotr Bolotnikov Russia 30.58 10/5/1960 Kiev, Russia 28:18.8 0.68% 8.61% +0.63% 1.85 17 Vladimir Kuts Russia 29.59 9/11/1956 Moscow, Russia 28:30.4 0.72% 7.98% +0.71% 4.07 16 Sándor Iharos Hungary 26.35 7/15/1956 , Hungary 28:42.8 0.66% 7.32% +0.07% 0.16 15 Emil Zátopek Czechoslovakia 31.70 6/1/1954 Brussels, Belgium 28:54.2 0.42% 6.70% -0.18% 2.12 14 Emil Zátopek Czechoslovakia 31.12 11/1/1953 Stará Boleslav, Czechoslovakia 29:01.6 0.06% 6.31% -0.48% 0.58 13 Emil Zátopek Czechoslovakia 27.87 8/4/1950 , Finland 29:02.6 1.06% 6.25% +0.03% 3.24 12 Emil Zátopek Czechoslovakia 27.09 10/22/1949 Ostrava, Czechoslovakia 29:21.2 0.34% 5.25% -0.84% 0.78 11 Viljo Heino Finland 35.50 9/1/1949 Kouvola, Finland 29:27.2 0.06% 4.93% -1.14% 0.14 10 Emil Zátopek Czechoslovakia 26.73 6/11/1949 Ostrava, Czechoslovakia 29:28.2 0.41% 4.87% -1.15% 0.22 9 Viljo Heino Finland 30.49 8/25/1944 Helsinki, Finland 29:35.4 0.96% 4.49% -0.71% 4.79 8 Taisto Mäki Finland 28.79 9/17/1939 Helsinki, Finland 29:52.6 0.52% 3.56% -0.78% 4.94 7 Taisto Mäki Finland 27.82 9/29/1938 , Finland 30:02.0 0.20% 3.06% -1.12% 0.97 6 Ilmari Salminen Finland 34.82 7/18/1937 Kouvola, Finland 30:05.6 0.03% 2.86% -1.11% 1.20 5 Paavo Nurmi Finland 29.31 8/31/1924 , Finland 30:06.2 0.93% 2.83% +1.08% 12.88 4 Ville Ritola Finland 29.19 7/6/1924 , France 30:23.2 0.66% 1.92% +0.19% 0.15 3 Ville Ritola Finland 29.09 5/25/1924 Helsinki, Finland 30:35.4 0.26% 1.26% -0.44% 0.11 2 Paavo Nurmi Finland 28.52 6/22/1921 Stockholm, Sweden 30:40.2 1.00% 1.00% -0.20% 2.92 1 Jean Bouin France 27.96 11/16/1911 Colombes, France 30:58.8 +0.46% 9.60 MEAN ±SD 27.62 ±3.65 MEAN ±SD 2.65 ±2.96 Sources: International Association of Athletics Federations, Wikipedia (athlete ages). *As of June 1, 2012.

Table 2. World record data for the men’s 5,000 meter run.

AGE DATE of TIME IMPROVEMENT LONGEVITY No. RECORD SETTER NATIONALITY SITE (years) PERFORMANCE (min:sec.0) Performance Overall vs. trend (years) 35 Kenenisa Bekele Ethiopia 21.97 5/31/2004 Hengelo, Netherlands 12:37.4 0.26% 13.60% -0.32% 8.00* 34 Haile Gebrselassie Ethiopia 25.15 6/13/1998 Helsinki, Finland 12:39.4 0.05% 13.37% +0.43% 5.97 33 Kenya 21.26 8/22/1997 Brussels, Belgium 12:39.7 0.28% 13.33% +0.52% 0.81 32 Haile Gebrselassie Ethiopia 24.32 8/13/1997 , Switzerland 12:41.9 0.33% 13.09% +0.28% 0.02 31 Haile Gebrselassie Ethiopia 22.33 8/16/1995 Zurich, Switzerland 12:44.4 1.41% 12.80% +0.31% 1.99 30 Kenya 24.68 6/8/1995 , Italy 12:55.3 0.21% 11.56% -0.90% 0.19 29 Haile Gebrselassie Ethiopia 21.13 6/4/1994 Hengelo, Netherlands 12:57.0 0.18% 11.37% -0.92% 1.01 28 Saïd Aouita Morocco 27.72 7/22/1987 Rome, Italy 12:58.4 0.26% 11.20% +0.03% 6.87 27 Saïd Aouita Morocco 25.73 7/27/1985 Oslo, Norway 13:00.4 0.00% 10.97% +0.13% 1.98 26 Great Britain 29.24 7/7/1982 Oslo, Norway 13:00.4 0.74% 10.97% +0.63% 3.06 25 Henry Rono Kenya 29.59 9/13/1981 Knarrvik, Norway 13:06.2 0.28% 10.31% +0.10% 0.81 24 Henry Rono Kenya 26.15 4/8/1978 Berkeley, California, USA 13:08.4 0.57% 10.06% +0.41% 3.43 23 New Zealand 29.51 7/5/1977 Stockholm, Sweden 13:12.9 0.01% 9.55% +0.02% 0.76 22 Belgium 24.95 9/20/1972 Brussels, Belgium 13:13.0 0.43% 9.54% +0.79% 4.79 21 Lasse Viren Finland 23.15 9/14/1972 Helsinki, Finland 13:16.4 0.03% 9.15% +0.40% 0.02 20 Ron Clarke Australia 29.37 7/5/1966 Stockholm, Sweden 13:16.6 0.95% 9.13% +1.39% 6.20 19 Kip Keino Kenya 25.87 11/30/1965 , New Zealand 13:24.2 0.20% 8.26% +0.62% 0.59 18 Ron Clarke Australia 28.28 6/4/1965 Compton, California, USA 13:25.8 0.96% 8.08% +0.52% 0.49 17 Ron Clarke Australia 27.95 2/1/1965 Auckland, New Zealand 13:33.6 0.15% 7.19% -0.32% 0.34 16 Ron Clarke Australia 27.90 1/16/1965 , Australia 13:34.8 0.02% 7.05% -0.45% 0.04 15 Vladimir Kuts Russia 30.68 10/13/1957 Rome, Italy 13:35.0 0.22% 7.03% +0.72% 7.26 14 Great Britain 25.36 6/19/1956 Bergen, Norway 13:36.8 0.46% 6.82% +0.67% 1.32 13 Sándor Iharos Hungary 25.62 10/23/1955 Budapest, Hungary 13:40.6 0.75% 6.39% +0.29% 0.66 12 Vladimir Kuts Russia 28.61 9/18/1955 , Yugoslavia 13:46.8 0.48% 5.68% -0.29% 0.10 11 Sándor Iharos Hungary 25.50 9/10/1955 Budapest, Hungary 13:50.8 0.05% 5.22% -0.74% 0.02 10 Vladimir Kuts Russia 27.71 10/23/1954 Prague, Czechoslovakia 13:51.2 0.05% 5.18% -0.65% 0.88 9 Chris Chataway Great Britain 23.70 10/13/1954 London, England 13:51.6 0.60% 5.13% -0.69% 0.03 8 Vladimir Kuts Russia 27.56 8/29/1954 Bern, Switzerland 13:56.6 0.07% 4.56% -1.24% 0.12 7 Emil Zátopek Czechoslovakia 31.69 5/30/1954 Colombes, France 13:57.2 0.12% 4.49% -1.27% 0.25 6 Gunder Hägg Sweden 23.72 9/20/1942 , Sweden 13:58.2 1.25% 4.38% +0.53% 11.69 5 Taisto Mäki Finland 28.54 6/16/1939 Helsinki, Finland 14:08.8 0.96% 3.17% -0.15% 3.26 4 Lauri Lehtinen Finland 23.86 6/19/1932 Helsinki, Finland 14:17.0 1.29% 2.24% +0.06% 6.99 3 Paavo Nurmi Finland 27.02 6/19/1924 Helsinki, Finland 14:28.2 0.82% 0.96% +0.09% 8.00 2 Paavo Nurmi Finland 25.25 9/12/1922 Stockholm, Sweden 14:35.4 0.14% 0.14% -0.45% 1.77 1 Hannes Kolehmainen Finland 22.58 7/10/1912 Stockholm, Sweden 14:36.6 0.00% +1.08% 10.17 MEAN ±±±SD 26.10 ±2.74 MEAN ±±±SD 2.85 ±3.34 Sources: International Association of Athletics Federations, Wikipedia (athlete ages). *As of June 1, 2012.

7 31

29 .

27

25

23 10,000 m 5,000 m CUMULATIVE MEAN CUMULATIVE AGE (years) Mile 21 1,500 m

800 m

19 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

DATE of PERFORMANCE

Figure 1. Cumulative average age in world record progressions.

8 20

y = 0.1725 x - 330.42 R2 = 0.9761

15 . y = 0.4335x - 851.45 1993-98 (Gebrselassie Era) 8 records in 4.91 years 2.80% improvement

10 y = 0.7074x - 1380.5 1965-66 (Clarke Era) 3 records in 1.57 years 2.13% improvement y = 0.3439x - 665.24

1911-2005 1949-56 (Zátopek Era) 8 records in 7.25 years 5 3.66% improvement y = 0.3564x - 683.97 OVERALL% IMPROVEMENT 38 records in 93.8 years, 15.1% improvement 15.1% years, 93.8 in records 38 1921-24 (Nurmi Era) 4 records in 3.19 years 2.83% improvement 0

-5 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

DATE of PERFORMANCE

Figure 2. Men’s 10,000 meter run world record progression.

9 20

y = 0.1632 x - 313.12 R2 = 0.9729 15 .

1994-98 y = 0.5089x - 1003.5 (Gebrselassie Era) 6 records in 4.02 years 2.44% improvement 10 y = 1.3327x - 2611.6 1965-66 (Clarke Era) 5 records in 1.46 years y = 0.7827x - 1525 2.26% improvement

5 1912-2004 1954-57 (Kuts Era) 9 records in 3.37 years 2.77% improvement OVERALL IMPROVEMENT% 35 records in 91.9 years, 13.6% improvement 13.6% years, 91.9 in records 35 0

-5 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

DATE of PERFORMANCE

Figure 3. Men’s 5,000 meter run world record progression.

10 Table 3. Era summary data for men’s 10,000 and 5,000 meter world record progressions.

AVERAGE AVERAGE YEARLY DURATION RECORDS/ AGE of FREQUENCY of OVERALL DIFFERENCE PERIOD TREND/ERA IMPROVEMENT ATHLETES RECORD- RECORD- IMPROVEMENT vs. TREND (years) RATE SETTERS SETTING

10,000 meters

Rapid improvement/Nurmi-Finnish 1921-24 3.19 4/2 29.03 every 291 days 2.83% 0.89% +1.28% dominance

1924-49 Parallel trend/continued Finnish dominance 24.78 4/3 30.48 every 2263 days 2.10% 0.085% -2.22%

Rapid improvement/Zátopek-east European 1949-56 7.25 8/4 29.49 every 331 days 3.66% 0.50% +1.85% dominance Stagnation/Bolotnikov-east European 1956-65 7.27 2/1 31.50 every 1327 days 1.21% 0.17% -2.50% dominance & rise of Oceana

1965-66 Rapid improvement/Clarke era 1.57 3/1 27.84 every 191 days 2.28% 1.45% +1.68%

1966-93 Long, slow decline/rise of east Africans 27.98 6/6 25.70 every 1703 days 1.90% 0.068% -7.13%

Rapid improvement/Gebrselassie-African 1993-98 4.91 8/6 25.29 every 224 days 2.79% 0.568% +1.58% dominance

1998-present* Decline/east African dominance 14.00 2/1 22.60 every 2557 days 0.33% 0.023% -1.59%

5,000 meters

1911-54 Long, parallel trend/Finnish dominance 41.89 6/5 25.16 every 2550 days 4.49% 0.107% -2.35% Rapid improvement/Kuts-British-east 1954-57 3.37 9/5 27.38 every 154 days 2.77% 0.757% +1.99% European dominance

1957-65 Pause – no records set 7.26 0 ------

1965-66 Rapid improvement/Clarke era 1.46 5/2 27.87 every 107 days 2.27% 1.55% +1.84%

1966-94 Long, gradual decline/rise of east Africans 27.92 8/6 27.00 every 1275 days 2.51% 0.090% -2.27%

Rapid improvement/ Gebrselassie-African 1994-98 4.02 6/3 23.15 every 245 days 2.44% 0.607% +1.35% dominance

1998-present* Decline/east African dominance 13.97 1/1 21.97 every 5102 days 0.26% 0.019% -1.70%

*As of June 1, 2012.

11