THE C RITERION J OURNAL ON I NNOVAT I ON Vol. 3 E E E 2018 Is Patent Holdup a Hoax? J. Gregory Sidak* Many economists—and perhaps even a fair number of judges and lawyers— would agree that a sound economic theory can usefully inform the legal analysis of a complex commercial dispute. But how likely is it that knowl- edge accrues in the opposite direction? Can the expediency of legal advocacy serendipitously inspire a breakthrough in economic understanding? Can a client’s desired outcome in a consequential legal dispute plausibly motivate a novel economic theory that genuinely advances science? Perhaps so, if one embraces a new interpretation of Oscar Wilde’s notion of “the triumph of hope over experience.”1 But only perhaps. In 2007, two law review articles debuted the patent-holdup conjecture, which has since become de rigueur for any implementer of an industry stan- dard to allege against a holder of standard-essential patents (SEPs) when the parties dispute whether the SEP holder has offered to license those patents on legitimately fair, reasonable, and nondiscriminatory (FRAND) terms. The patent-holdup conjecture quickly became a big business. The first article2 was written by Mark Lemley, a distinguished law professor at Stanford and (at the time) of counsel to the San Francisco litigation boutique Keker & Van Nest, and by Carl Shapiro, an equally distinguished economics professor at Berkeley and a senior consultant to Charles River Associates (a publicly * Chairman, Criterion Economics, Washington, D.C. Email:
[email protected]. I thank Joseph Linfield, Douglas Maggs, Urška Petrovčič, Marc Richardson, Melinda Ledden Sidak, Jeremy Skog, Blount Stewart, Han Tran, and Andrew Vassallo for helpful research and comments.