Just the End of Love
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(It’s Not War) Just the End of Love SOLUTIONS & MULTI-ASSET | GLOBAL BALANCED RISK CONTROL TEAM | MACRO INSIGHT | MAY 2018 On 2 March 2018, a day after announcing AUTHOR his first round of tariffs, targeting steel and aluminium imports from China, President Trump tweeted that “trade wars are good and easy to win.” So far, however, we aren’t involved ANDREW HARMSTONE Managing Director in so much of a trade war with China, but a deteriorating relationship that looks more like Andrew is Lead Portfolio Manager for “just the end of love,” to borrow a song title the Global Balanced Risk Control Strategy (GBaR). He joined Morgan Stanley in from the Manic Street Preachers. 2008 and has 37 years of relevant industry experience. Both China and the US have a lot to lose from a trade confrontation that escalates into full-scale war. Trade tariffs, restrictions and technology controls could disrupt China’s plan to address its long-term debt and hamper the rebalancing of its economy. Overall this could disrupt its Made in China 2025 strategy, a government plan to upgrade China’s industry through a combination of manufacturing and smart technology. For the US, political and economic considerations also weigh against a full trade war. China’s vulnerability: A great wall of debt A decade ago China’s growth was largely driven by investment spending. This spending and increases in debt did contribute to growth; however, the impact appears in recent years to have reduced. When global growth slowed in the aftermath of the financial crisis, the Chinese government tried to stimulate growth through this spending by mandating which industries or sectors should receive investments. The banks issued loans MACRO INSIGHT to Chinese state-owned enterprises DISPLAY 1 (SOEs), which then proceeded to invest China’s massive debt buildup is growing… in those areas. SOE debt represents China’s percentage of debt to GDP growth around 70% of corporate debt.1 % As a result, debt has increased steadily 300 since 2008 and is now close to 300% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 250 (Display 1). This level of debt requires interest payments of about 12% of 200 GDP per year.2 The largest source of debt is less-profitable SOEs (Display 2), 150 which have contributed to GDP growth in the past. 100 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 One of the objectives of the National Chin eb GDP Congress of the Communist Party of Source: Bloomberg as of 31 December 2017. China has been to rebalance its economy and make it sustainable. Its goal was to shift the composition of GDP away DISPLAY 2 from investment spending towards … particularly among less-profitable SOEs more household consumption, which has been growing and represents nearly % 40% of GDP (Display 3). It is worth 200 Corporate ebt noting though that investment spending 150 can be seen as a growth leader, whereas consumer spending depends in part on 100 consumer confidence, which is a rather Household ebt less direct ‘lever’ if the government aims 50 to boost growth quickly. A secondary Government ebt objective is to increase productivity by 0 shifting the investor base in China from ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 low value-added to higher-end industries Government ebt Corporate ebt Household ebt with a technological bias (i.e., the Made (state-owned enterprises) in China 2025 strategy). Source: Bloomberg as of 31 December 2017. High-tech imports and technology transfers—which the US views as forced DISPLAY 3 or improper—are necessary for increasing Chinese household consumption an increasingly important contributor to GDP productivity and shifting to higher value-added businesses. The Trump RMB billion administration’s proposed trade tariffs 90,000 directly challenge these plans. 2% 60,000 44% 14% 30,000 39% 0 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 1 Source: OECD, https://www.oecd.org/eco/ surveys/china-2017-OECD-economic-survey- ■ ousehold onsumption ■ Government onsumption overview.pdf ■ Gross apital ormation ■ Ne xport 2 Bloomberg, using the 1-5 year benchmark lending rate of 4.75%, a very conservative borrowing cost. Source: Bloomberg as of 31 December 2016. 2 MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT | SOLUTIONS & MULTI-ASSET (IT’S NOT WAR) JUST THE END OF LOVE A (politically) targeted response DISPLAY 4 China has responded to proposed US Rising earnings driving China’s market higher tariffs with significant sanctions against the US that will hurt regions that voted ES Index for Trump in the last election. These 7.5 120 Chinese tariffs were designed with US politics in mind. Even if they also hurt 6.5 80 China—for example, soybean imports are essential for the country’s pork production—eight of the top 10 soybean- 5.5 40 producing states voted for Trump in the 2016 election. 4.5 0 President Trump’s aggressive and fast- 1/13 10/13 7/14 4/15 1/16 10/16 7/17 4/18 paced approach to China may reflect 12-mo orwar EPS LHS) MSCI hin Inde i K RHS)) his realisation that, after mid-term elections in November 2018, his ability Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment. See Disclosure to pass legislation is likely to be greatly section for index definitions. diminished. And, his previous approach Source: IBES, Datastream; data is in local currency terms. with steel and aluminium tariffs— headline-grabbing at first, followed by exemptions for Canada, Mexico, then the In contrast, the Trump administration Wild swings, but no downward trend European Union (E.U.), South Korea, has announced a strict deadline and In an environment where investors are Indonesia and so on—lends weight to serious consequences if negotiations fail. already jittery in the face of tightening the view that this back and forth is more These tariffs have a 60-day negotiation monetary policy, an aggressive approach likely a tactic than an end game. window before they kick in, which to negotiation between the two largest increases pressure for meaningful economies has ignited extreme market If China gets pushed into a corner, concessions on both sides. volatility and uncertainty. And this is it could simply stop investing in US not your usual kind of volatility; since Treasuries. Or worse, it could start selling The markets expressed concerns that the selloff in early February, which was its $1.2 trillion3 stockpile of US Treasury this announcement would heighten the triggered by rising rates, the market has holdings. Also, the US is counting on “threat, counter-threat” situation, but experienced wild intraday swings, but China to help with managing North those are not the dynamics we are seeing. hasn’t really trended down. We expect Korea, so there is an incentive from the The Trump administration has no need this pattern to continue because we think US not to be recklessly aggressive with to continue escalating its threats because that these trade threats are a negotiating its policy. it has what it wants: A reasonable period tactic—not an attempt to destroy of time to reach an agreement with global trade. The 60-day clock: Creating a deadline concessions, and a deadline to increase The Trump administration’s approach that likelihood. Growing capital investment, a favourable has changed the dynamics of tariff GDP outlook and record levels of There is a risk that the two parties negotiations. In the past, when the US unemployment suggest a strong global will fail to reach an agreement by the attempted to renegotiate trade terms, it economy. The outlook for Chinese deadline, triggering the tariffs. At that usually talked first, and then waited for equities is also supportive, with prices point, we could see an escalation. But we a response before acting. But speaking rising in line with earnings trends think it is more likely that concessions without deadlines created delays; the (Display 4). Moreover, valuations remain will be made that could start to resolve US could talk itself blue in the face and supportive whilst analyst revisions longstanding global imbalances. nothing could happen.4 of forward earnings have recently turned higher. 3 Source: Department of the Treasury/Federal Reserve Board, Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities, published 16 April 2018. http://ticdata. treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt 4 See e.g., The US’s Act First, Talk Later Approach to Tariffs, Jim Caron, MSIM Global Fixed Income team, 5 April 2018. “In the past, the US elected to talk first, act later. As a result, China just used delay tactics until the US political climate lost its will to press trade talks any further. This has been a successful tactic for the Chinese. But that’s over now.” SOLUTIONS & MULTI-ASSET | MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT 3 MACRO INSIGHT Strategy: What to do, what not to do this volatile, there is no way to anticipate would be to selectively buy sectors and This outlook implies investors should seek when an upward trend will occur, so countries that are expected to be hurt or to trade around that volatility. When the investors sitting in cash are likely to oversold and selling those perceived to be market dives, it almost certainly—and miss out if the market rebounds. They beneficiaries or overbought. we emphasise “almost”—sets off an should, however, hold enough cash to overreaction that should lead to buying avoid being forced to sell equities after a An opportunity to harness the opportunities.