Freeing the Road: Shaping the future for autonomous vehicles

A Policy Network Special Report

Florian Ranft, Martin Adler, Patrick Diamond, Eugenia Guerrero and Matthew Laza November 2016 special report policy network

Policy Network Second floor 11 Tufton Street London SW1P 3QB United Kingdom t: +44 (0)20 7340 2200 f: +44 (0)20 7340 2211 e: [email protected] www.policy-network.net

www.policy-network.net

Contents

2 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 award foundation. winneroftheIkea Giebichenstein, Halle, Germany. Heisafreelance designer Sweden, at Ikea, anda2014 in thisreport. Theo isaninterior architect anddesigner, agraduate ofthefamousBurg We are alsograteful to Theo whohascontributed Möller theoriginal graphics used whichhelpeda greatand efforts dealinbringing together thisstudy. Renaud Schwickert, Dominic Thillaye delaRocha andManuel Vazquez for alltheirsupport Dilks,Ben Richard Goebelt, Thomas Leif, Liddle, Roger Philipp Sälhoff, WolfgangSchmidt, We are especiallygrateful to ourcolleaguesEurope. at Nissan We would alsoliketo thank Acknowledgements About theauthors Shaping thefuture ofAV: 12recommendations for policymakers Politics: overcoming thebarriersto adoption Economics: ADcount making for everyone Regulations: debates andreforms inkey countries Introduction Executive summary Excursus: thefuture inRussia ofdriving Spanish regulatory landscape Spanish regulatory UK regulatory landscape UK regulatory German regulatory landscape regulatory German EU regulatory landscape EU regulatory International regulatory landscape International regulatory 64 61 46 36 33 27 21 16 13 11 8 5 3 Cover imagecredit: Theo Möller www.policy-network.net

policy network special report which timeautonomous vehicles willhave contributed atotal of€17tn gross will, domesticproduct cumulatively, be5.3percent higherintheyear 2050thancurrently, by 0.15 percent Europe’s annualgrowth rate inthedecadesto come. As aresult, theEuropean (EU-28) original economicOur analysis shows that, insuchascenario, adding autonomous vehicles willstart economic benefitsof AV for Europe willbe overwhelming. rightandputinplace getthebigpicture rulesthat properly promotepolicymakers thechange, the outlines the The finding is that principle reasons if why – and this report this remains a big if – continent asawhole. debate aroundpolicy autonomous vehicles (AVs) for andassessesthelikelyeconomic impact the Focusing onthree keycountries –Germany, SpainandtheUK–ithighlights crucialfeatures ofthe and regulators shouldrespond. roads. also deals with the potential faced and providesbarriers It answers as to how governments offeredand economic opportunities by the transformation to autonomous driving (AD) on Europe’s fromEurope,This prepared Nissan Policy report, Network withsupport analyses boththesocial Executive summary technology. sought to championstrong regional clusters that cansetthepace for anationwide adoptionofAV aprolonged withoutaconfirmedDuring national period government, Spain’s leadershave policy advantage by reforming policiesstep-by-step inlinewithtechnological progress. meanwhile,The UK, hasadopted a ‘rolling programme’ andgainfirst-mover approach to try case ofanaccident. time, removing overa certain theuncertainties whetherapersonormachineisresponsible in the The device would work asadata recorder information that collects thevehicle onwhoisdriving at vital questionsiftheypassabillthat willrequire highlyautomated vehicles to installa box’.‘black legislatorsGerman havefirst and might lead the way putsafety on settling these and legal certainty strategy. policy hasadapted adistinct itbecameclearthat eachcountry and policymakers how to achieve socialacceptanceparticularly from consumers. From ourconversations withexperts expressedThe mainbarrier inthepoliticalandpublicdiscourse onAV isaround safety andsecurity; ensure aseamlessmove towards ADinEurope. must bearenewed pushfor theharmonisationofnational andinternational regulation, inorder to fallingbehindthepace risk beingsetby theautomotivepolicymakers industry. An initialpriority just such ‘driverless’ technology. Unlessthepace changerapidly ofregulatory picksup, Europe’s clear that we are withintouching distance beingableto ofmanufacturers produce vehicles with have farpolicymakers notyetSo resolved theissues thrown upby fullautonomy despite itbeing continuing move towards ever more autonomous capability. forfrom research thecurrent support andtesting to theconcrete legalrulesthat keeppace withthe environmentto inshapingthenecessary continue theirefforts for theintroduction of AVs –moving frameworkmuch ontheregulatory asitdoesontechnology itself. Yet, 3 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 the speedat whichautonomous becomes driving areality onEurope’s roads dependsat leastas The is maintaskfor policymakers * to GDP. * Trillion =10 www.policy-network.net 12

policy network special report coordinated action. aimsto showThis how. report the chance to maximise theeconomic andsocialgood. Butitwillrequire urgent, and concerted cannot bedismissed, andisnotgoingto goaway. There isareal chance for thecontinent to seize Europe’s should beundernoillusion:afuture ofautonomous isuponus. driving policymakers It as widelypossible. successful transition to automation butwould alsoensure that thebenefitsthatwillbespread arise Freeing theRoadoffers 12 innovationsconcrete that, policy ifimplemented, would notjustaida to vitalservices. andconnections ageing populations donotlosetheirmobility theconsequences ofEurope’stackling that –ensuring membersofourincreasingly ageingsociety at present are cutofffrom suchnetworks. And, mostvitallyofall, perhaps ADwillbeahuge tool in system rightto that thefront connects transport doorsofhomesandworkplaces, even inareas which planning begins now, for agenuinelyintegrated ADpresents theopportunity andlocalisedpublic andconsequentlyof vehicle access transport to Crucially, educational andwork opportunities. if AD willplay socialexclusion, akeyrole intackling by giving more peopleaccess to the freedom AD isnotjustabouteconomic change, itwillalsobeasocialrevolution. showsThe how report they willbeaffected. will bepositive, butthetransition willneedto besmoothedfor thoseaffected, orthosewho worry is inevitable. research Our shows that, ultimately, andjobgrowth ofADonproductivity theimpact byAD journey preparing for, rather to, thanreacting theinitialdisruptionto which thelabourmarket fire on fromfears arising digitalisation, that governments theirpopulations bring withthem onthe stalltherolloutturn ofthenewtechnology. isessential, ifwe It are to prevent populistsfocusing their might play into the hands of populists preying on fears from arising globalisation, which would in andbusinesses,work, beyond thosemostobviously involved. efforts, Without policy concerted AV automotive economy butalsothemuchwiderimplications for andthefuture transport, research, will require to properly notonlyonthe embrace policymakers andunderstandtheseismicimpact But thesedonotcome withoutany for risks asawhole. society The transition to adriverless future As withothersuchsignificant technological revolutions, AV offers vast economic opportunities. ratherhomework, thantraffic lights ontheschoolrun. at theroad, ambulance theirpatients; staffcanlookafter kids’ andparents canengagewiththeir on decisive action. andconsistent policy The publicgoodisalsosetto benefit: rather thanlooking to offer significantintractable problems, solutions butthisis toeachofthesehitherto contingent environmental constraints. officialsmustunderstandthat ADhasthepotential andcity Municipal core ofeconomic productivity, butare alsoheavily affected by road congestion, landscarcity and economies will be substantial. This change will be most heavily felt centres. in urban These lie at the As oureconomic cost-benefit analysis suggests, theimplications of AV introduction for Europe’s 4 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 www.policy-network.net

policy network special report circle ofgrowth andprosperity. into thegrowth economy, that ensuring allourcitizens have abetter chance ofjoiningthewinner’s andculturalnetworks capital. AVs have to helpintegrate thecapacity behind’‘left places andregions society, is crucial for people with employment, success connectivity social public services, in linking tool economyin improving of individuals and communities. a 21st century the connectivity and In equipped to cope withchange, andthat, ideally, behind. AVs nooneisleft canbecome acrucial winners andlosersfrom publicpoliciesare change;pro-active neededto ensure is that everyone progressMaking onAVs, likeothernewtechnologies, that meansacknowledging there are always those levels ofgovernment, there isanimperative now. to act response institutions at the EU, from European national, policymaking regional level. and city At all measures neededfor the widespread adoptionofdriverless technology willrequire amore rigorous UK –have ‘dipped theirtoes inthewater’ by allowing test ofAVs driving ontheirroads. Butthe the potential of AVs in the 21st century. A number of countries – notably Germany, Spain and the technology,the benefitsofnewtransport leadership willbeneeded at alllevels to maximise European countries are beginning to engagewiththechangesthat AVs willbring. However, to reap Europe. safer andmoresystem individualsandbusinessesthroughout that efficient will connect transport offer socialandenvironmental benefits tothewholeofsociety. Thisfuturedriverless, visionisofa they willchangehow citizens interact withmotor vehicles, transform patterns ofconnectivity, and only have thepotential to fundamentally reshape Europe’s strategically vitalautomotive industry; line, Europe’s mustfastcatch upwithtechnological policymakers andcommercial reality. AVs not about until longinto thefuture. Now, withthefirstmanufactured AVs set to roll offthe production technological development that politicians, regulators could putoffthinking andpolicymakers Autonomous vehicles (AV) have longedseemedlikesomethingfrom Tomorrow’s World –a Introduction 5 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 Replicas of sci-fi character Michael Knight’sMichael ofsci-ficharacter Replicas famousautonomous car – AVs were once considered dream afuturistic Pop Culture Geek Picture credit: The Conmunity - www.policy-network.net

policy network special report Therefore, recommends thisreport thefollowing priorities: legislation inorder for themove to AV to becommercially viable. public. At offuture thesametime, andSMEsneedgreater abouttheimpact industries certainty AV technology butthat simultaneouslyrecognise concerns ofthe andmeetthesafety andsecurity major challengeswillbeto fashionregulations that allow enough flexibility for theintroduction of need to rewrite the rulesfor AVs and invent flexible and responsive regulations around them. The citizens andcommunities embrace and donotfear thistechnological change. To dothis, theywill Yet for thisto happen,for mustensure thefullsocialgood ofADto beunlocked, that policymakers transition. infrastructure. Autonomouspublic transportation vehicles promise to begreat enablers inthis to oflife maintain quality andpromote sustainability, includingthedevelopment ofhighquality which have thepotential to transform how we travel Strategic andconnect. planningwillbeneeded isthegrowthThe shift second majorstructural spaces ofurban andtheemergence of ‘megacities’ solutions. role for ADinmeetingall ofthesechallenges, withthepotential to provide genuinelyempowering andpublictransport. withpublicservices includingbetterThere connections and support, isaclear vehicle, including assisted technologies. driving Olderpeoplewillalsoneedmore specialistservices their independence andfreedom. Ageing societieswillincrease thedemandfor ofmotor newtypes a heightenedbring concern about how thoseincreasingly road elderly userscansafely maintain change will transform the consumer landscape. The increase in the number of older drivers will in Europe that are on the lives already of consumersimpacting and citizens. First, demographic The adoptionofautonomous drive (AD) willtakeplace shifts inthecontext ofmajorstructural 6 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 Continue investments to make smart ininfrastructure, andthehumancapital skills • at Engagewithpolicymakers alllevels, especiallycitieswhere mayors are setto be • Create between industry, to reap new businessesandthepublicsector partnerships • Guarantee that regulations are inplace to create asafe environment for • • of thefuture. major decision-makers. transfer, engineering, andadvanced smart manufacturing. that specialiseinAVeducation, butalsoSMEsandstartups technology, data the benefitsof AVs: carmanufacturers, insurance companies, tech companies, higher citizens andbusinesses. agendacentred andgrowth. economicmodern policy onhigherproductivity awarenessRaise ofAV itto, andbring technology theforefront inpolitics ofthe www.policy-network.net

policy network special report driving Europe’sdriving economy forward butalsoproving agenuineforce for public good. slightly unreal andaoccasionally scary, technology canplay exciting anenormously role inboth hope itproves ofadebate abouthow exciting, thisenormously justthat –thestart ifstillfor many to theadoptionofAVs andbarriers opportunities inEurope, andhow bestto overcome them. We Freeing isthefirst theRoad attempt publicdebateto leadaserious abouttheeconomic andpolitical findings. independent but the study itself is firmly and this work, Network remains Policy responsible for its Policy isgrateful Network Europe to thedevelopment Nissan for anddissemination of supporting engine one. likelytobecause adriverless orhybrid, future beanelectronic isvery rather thanacombustion discourse onrenewablea policy energy transition for AV solutions, vehicles, suchasvehicle-to-grid accounting for roughly 4.5percent oftotal employment intheEU. Also urgent andrelevant shouldbe as AVin labour markets are likely to have sector, on employment a substantial in impact transport demand sidenational onskills andlocaldecision-makersmusttakeimmediate actions On thepolicy more between carsandinfrastructure. widespread useofADandconnectivity as awhole. somewhat later Asubstantial inroad reduction asthiscoincides congestion witha starts inalmostimmediately astheyareto kick related directly to traffic andthe economic environment gains, mostofthebenefits, ofGDPgainsandefficiency expect suchasaccident majority reduction, Working ontheassumption that thefirst commercially produced AV come in2020s to themarket we benefits that will follow as AVs are progressively introduced into themarket. that willbeneededandtheconsequentThe actions aboveeconomic timelineplotsthepolicy Figure 1: Timeline ofAV adoption Germany, Spain,theUKandBrussels. on politicians,as well withleadingpolicymakers, officialsand experts asinterviews AV technologyin of this study are basedon a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis using thelatest economic models, recommendationsdevelop adetailedsetofpolicy for localandnational policymakers. The findings developingIn thisagendawe examine theeconomic benefitsof AV technology in Europe, and 7 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 www.policy-network.net

policy network special report technology itself. reality onEurope’s roads framework dependsat leastasmuchontheregulatory asitdoeson autonomous revolution driving that isuponus. The speed at whichautonomous becomes driving demonstrate how itcanbe, to show what needsto bedoneto genuinely ‘free theroad’ for the whichmustbeseized now.This amounts to anopportunity isto The ofthisreport purpose the timetablefor theroll outofever greater automation evident. is planned–inthesensethat thetechnological oftravel direction isnow clear andtheroad-map and technology andthat Europe’s ebbsaway. opportunity The goodnews isthat thisisarevolution that that a risk the pace evolution comes of regulatory a risk; fails to keep pace with the that opportunity and help the continent gain with worldhuge commercial leadership insector possibility. But with to shapethoserules –to workThis withindustry gives leadersahugeopportunity European policy needs to bereached before sucharadical technological changecanbefullyembraced. rightly when it comes to our roads, regulators need to give the green light and agreement on rules a fieldwhere can themarket gradually evolve andgovernment canplay defacto ‘catch-up’. Quite and regulators. web ofregulation. Once againitisacaseoftechnology runningaheadofpoliticians andthemarket But whenthat newautonomous technology takesto Europe’s to roads a confusing itwillbesubject 2017. throughin manoeuvring km/h. traffic jamssituations ofup to60 Themodelis to expected rolloffin automated willassistthedriver system. driving announced to withapartially It equip thenewGolf the Drive automated Pilot, willfollow system. driving anpartially Others suit. Volkswagen has Mercedes-Benz’ in2016whichcomes, launchedthenewE-Class albeitasanoptionalfeature, with carinEuropemarket to beequippedwith ‘level two’ automated capability. thepremium In segment willbeequippedwith eastEngland. It line inSunderland, north ‘ProPILOT’ itthefirstmass- making step inthetransition to AV. Qashqaiwillroll 2017anewvariant oftheNissan offproduction In haveA numberofcarmanufacturers developed another automated technology driving marking within reach, even lessexperienced. Butthat isnow setto change, andchangerapidly. conceptfuturistic – much discussed in the news, as well as motoring pages, but not yet seeming This meansthat for almostallofthe world’s 1.2billiondrivers lists. modelsare equippedwithadvancedsuper-luxury automation andeven thenthere canbewaiting benefit from the technological advancements ofautonomous –currently driving onlyahandfulof and alittleunreal, fora littlescary the revolution is not here just yet. At present, few onlyaprivileged Today we standonthethreshold ofarevolution inmobility. But, likeany threshold itcanseemboth challenge The policy Regulations: debates andreforms inkey countries 8 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 Yet unlikeinotherareas ofrapid tech evolution, liketheinternet itself, thisisnot “ Technology advances faster thanregulation Industry insider,Industry Spain. 1 autonomous remains driving a ” accessed: 9/11/2016). (last 2-billion-by-2035-report vehicles-on-worlds-roads-now- com/news/1093560_1-2-billion- http://www.greencarreports. Now, 2035:Report, 2BillionBy On World’sBillion Vehicles Roads 1. Voelcker, John(2014):1.2 www.policy-network.net

policy network special report carry out driving tasksfor outdriving thedriver,carry unlike likeautomated vehicles. communication, etc) short-range donot andvehicle-to-infrastructure vehicle-to-vehicle GPS, e-call, other hand, vehicles thoseconnected traffic available (internet onthemarket surfing, information, aroadwithout necessarilyinfrastructure to beingconnected orto anetwork, othervehicles. Onthe automated vehicles are already available and are on the market ableto sense their environment A vehicle doesnotnecessarily needto be ‘connected’ to be ‘autonomous’. Ontheonehand, partially includingtheEuropeanexperts, commission. two concepts, whilecomplementary, are different butare predicted to converge intheeyes ofmany The concept of “automated vehicles” associated is also often with “connected vehicles”. However the sight, notthestuffofscience fiction. quite round thecorner, onthehorizon. mostcertainly They shouldbe regarded asatechnology in truly ‘driverless’ vehicles.) Though somethingofthefuture at present, fullydriverless carsare, ifnot high.(And, willshow,very asthisreport regulation hasalongway to goto evolve to cope withsuch fully automated vehicles that canoperate oftraffic withoutadriver inalltypes conditions are still longer-term goalfor mostvehicle types, asthetechnical challengesfor to manufacturers produce now, some way away from entirely removing the need for adriver. The reality is that it eremains a “driverless” used, isoften andhasrather caught onto thepublicimagination, thetruthiswe are, for to remember that isimportant vehicles willbecomeIt automated step by step. While theterm to amuchwiderpublic. issetto suchcapability bring Nissan modelsare thattwo; could alsoequippedwithcapability bedefinedasstage now One ortwo luxury have market, several manufacturers, introduced mostlyintheluxury ‘parking assist’ technology. type is generally used(see Figure 2).At present only stage one has beenachieved at any scale, where To distinguishbetween thedifferent levels a1-5scaledefiningeachstage ofautonomous capability capacity.temporary cars withdiffering levels ofautomation whichcanbeactivated ordeactivated inapermanentor onbehalfofthedriver. controlthe needofactive orsupervision This term isusedto encompass An autonomous vehicle isoneequippedwithtechnology that allows itto drive andsteer without What isautonomous driving? 9 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 2 technologies. advantage ofcomplementary therefore neededinorder to take communication concept is for C-ITS. Consequently ahybrid services full range ofnecessary cellular systems can provide the nor currently ITS-G5 neitherETSI C-ITS platform concluded that 2016,the published inJanuary Note that initsreport network. like thecellular communication commercially available network needed) orcanuseathird party is network where nothird party infrastructure communications or vehicle-to- vehicle-to-vehicle inthecaseof ITS-G5 (eg ETSI communication standards can eitherbeadedicated depending ontheapplication, orstandardsnetwork that, an interoperable communication vehicles, vehicles connected need to2. Contrary automated www.policy-network.net

policy network special report prove to beanadvantage.” for before serve what technology thelongterm, thismay shouldactually In putting inonthemarket. technologies, to maximisetheirvalue. to understand Iwould European: thinkthisistypically trying commissioner Bulchassaid, “my team hasputstrong emphasisonhow to bestusethenew is, perhaps, understandable and the commission seems keen to from learn past mistakes. As After recent players difficultieswithkeyindustrial violating andrules, existingnorms suchcaution has restated that hermainconcern isgettingtheright setofrulesandregulations inplace. expressed excitement aboutADbut, asrecently asapublicevent 2016, inBrusselson18October commissioner,their approach ascautious. bedescribed canfairly EUtransport Violeta Bulchas Europe’s are, policymakers thankfully, alive to thepossibilitiesoffered by autonomous driving, but The taskfor policymakers Source: European parliament(2016):Briefing: Automated vehicles intheEU, p. 4. Figure 2:Levels ofautomation policymakers can lay thelegislativepolicymakers foundations for anautonomous future. This process chapter willgive behind theseconcepts ofthepolicy adetailedoverview andhow willallneedtoliability, betakeninto andconnectivity account. cybersecurity, property intellectual vehicles, willneedto thinkbeyond traditional policymakers concepts oftraffic policy. Product On top of that, inorder to successfully transition from manualto andautonomous connected policy, research anddevelopment, businessandinnovation, infrastructure androad traffic rules. The challengetouching questionofAD regulation uponindustrial is complex; policy a cross-cutting consulting allrelevant stakeholdersto solutions. findsustainableandsafe policy 10 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 3 In order In to gainsuchanunderstandingtheemphasisisbeingputon 9/11/2016). (lastaccessed: driverless-cars/ in-the-news/blog/violeta-bulc- cars, https://www.2025ad.com/ G& cooperation ondriverless commissioner callsfor intense 3. 2025AD(2016):EU www.policy-network.net

policy network special report will beessential, andfor that international agreement and adoptionwillbeessential. public confidence orderIn to a gainthenecessary robust and popularly regimerespected regulatory experience ofconsumers andsometimessensationalist mediacoverage. vehicles rank highinthepoliticaldiscourse whichisarguably causedby thelackoffirst-hand driver study willshow that publicconcerns over andsafety ofhighlyautomated security andautonomous intertwined theregulations governingintertwined automated vehicle technology are. Germany)Union), andnational willgive levels (Spain,UK, usacoherent of just how picture Covering framework theregulatory at theinternational (United Nations), intra-national (European more cautious–ifinternational law isnotreformed induecourse. countries once we enter thestageoffullautonomy –where production the Vienna rulesare much countries. may, It however, have inGermany onmanufacturers andotherratifying animpact of technology, becausetesting, andtherefore research, ismore orlessallowed inmostEuropean Today thequestionofratification ornotof onthedevelopmentVienna ishaving aminorimpact autonomous technology to beadopted even inthosecountries whohadratified the Vienna treaty. until 2014 April when the international codenations it easier a forhead wasstart amended, making fully autonomous vehicles. our conversations, In emphasised that thisgave experts thenon-ratifying Convention, however, meansthat itsconsequent laws present more ofachallengeto theadoptionof to the Vienna Convention and ofRoad Traffic but have notGermany’s ratified it. ratification ofthe technologyimpediment becausebothcountries to are theimplementation ofself-driving signatories As we willshow, theinternational inthecaseofSpainandUnited Kingdom, laws were lessofan of newtechnology. to facilitate international road traffic, andliability containsprinciples definingboththeadmissibility international law. Ontheinternational level, the1968 Vienna Convention onRoad Traffic, designed The regulation ofvehicles isgoverned by national law butisheavily affected by European and International regulatory landscape the World Economic Forum since thefatal accident involving a Tesla autonomous drive modelthissummer. by As asurvey be whoisresponsible incaseofanaccident, aconcern whichhasgrown inthepublicconsciousness be to address publicconcerns over andreliability ofAV thesecurity technology. Akeyquestionwill machinesareIf to, orfully, partially takeover from thedriver mannerthenakeystep inanactive must systems,braking adaptive cruisecontrol control). stability orelectronic sensors, navigationexperience (egparking systems) orimproving overall security (eganti-lock- connective technology played amostlypassive role invehicles,amore driving pleasant making international andnational legislation. regulations Most currently in place date back to an era where ofGermany,markets SpainandUK–are publicsafety concerns andtheharmonisationofexisting challengesidentifiedAmong inouranalysis themainregulatory –which concentrates onthekey road monitoring systems will be a great benefit for the overall safety of road users. Generation Y, ofwhich79percent ofrespondents that in-vehicle expect assistance systems and technology toexpect significantly improve road safety andsecurity. This iseven more relevant for 11 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 4 andtheGlobalAutomotive Consumer Study 5 show, consumers 6 However, our 6. Ibidem. p. 15. PDF (lastaccessed: 27/10/2016), com/assets/PDF/CA92618116. decisions, https://www.autonews. choices andtransportation consumers’Exploring mobility Automotive Consumer Study 5. Deloitte (2014):Global p. 16. pdf (lastaccessed: 27/10/2016), org/docs/WEF_Press%20release. Context, http://www3.weforum. Self-Driving Vehicles inanUrban 4. World Economic Forum (2015): www.policy-network.net

policy network special report amendments would of2018. nottakeeffectbefore thestart session of theUnited Nations’ Safety Forum Road in March 2017. This does, however, meanthat any (SAE level 5)have notpassed. Butinthelongerterm anewagreement could beaccepted inthenext Thus far, proposals to amendthe further Vienna Convention so asto legalisetotally autonomous cars completely to takeover control from orthewhole ofajourney. thevehicle for eitherapart levels ofautomated distinguishingbetween theneedfor or driving: thedriver to beable partially Vienna Convention. Crucially, theirproposal callsfor 8,soas to thediffering aredesign clarify ofArticle operating. For thisreason, Belgium andSweden have pushedfor additionalamendments to the the road, asitexplicitly states thedriver has to remain incontrol whiletheautonomous system is Yet thisamendment, inusingtheterm “driver”, willstillnotfullyallow autonomous carsto taketo amendment entered into force on23March 2016. drive itself insofar as the vehicle’s system “can be overridden or switched off by the driver”. This paragraph 8ofthe1968Convention was addedto Article onRoad Traffic soas toallow acar to technology inEurope.developmentMarch in ofself-driving light 2014anew ofthiseffort, In of Germany, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium andAustria. They highlight theevolved stageofthe carshavedriving beenpushingfor anamendment to theconvention –includingthegovernments orderIn to overcome thisbarrier, several European countries whichare keento implement self- countries besidesSpainandtheUnited Kingdom cars onpublicroads inthe74countries that have ratified the convention, includingall European his vehicle’. For that reason, ithasbeenseenasanimpediment to thedeployment ofself-driving combination ofvehicles shallhave adriver’ andthat ‘every driver shallat alltimes, beableto control The United Nations’ Vienna Convention onRoad Traffic states that moving ‘every vehicleor United Nations: Geneva and Source: basedonFraunhofer IAO Fahren (2015)Hochautomatisiertes aufAutobahnen, p112. Figure 3:National andinternational legislation 12 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 Traffic Code Admission and liability rules liability National Vienna conventions onroad traffic European 2007/46/EC Admission Directive rules law 7 . Subnational environment for Provides change change level International UNECE law rules

27/10/2016). convention.pdf (lastaccessed: DAM/trans/conventn/CP_Vienna_ http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/ the Convention onRoad Traffic, List ofContracting Parties to commission for Europe (2007): 7. United Nations Economic www.policy-network.net

policy network special report requirements butrefer ofECEregulations. to to themajority theapplicability spellouttechnical No661/2009,whichdoonlypartially Directive 2007/46EC,andRegulation(EC) by law. Generally, theEuropean approval commission (EC) for carssoldinmemberstates follows Here for theEUsetsbarriers theuseofautomated carsonpublicroads whichispermitted either for time, orthefulllengthofdriving anextended would require changesto EUlegislation. higher levels ofautomation whichcede fullcontrol from ofthedriving thedriver to thevehicle, for automatedbarrier theupcoming roll vehicles, outofpartially upto level 2automation. However, There exists nolegislation at the European Unionlevel that could beconsidered anoverwhelming EU regulatory landscape into EUlaw. of rolling outADinEurope willbethesuccessful transposition oftheupdated Vienna Convention When the, slow fairly grinding, wheelsoftheUNfinally reach agreement akeyelement oftheprocess Source: UN WP.29 DocumentNo. (9thITS/AD, ITS/AD-09-12 22June2016,agendaitem 3-2) Table 1: The current state oftheUNdiscussions objectives,cross-cutting ledby thecommission vice-presidents: groupsautonomous for driving work together Directorate-General thesinglemarket. to achieve At present, groups five withintheECare shapingtheruleson Directorate-General actively automation to beadopted onEurope’s roads. privacy, anddata protection would needto bedetermined at theEUlevel for that greater level of UN regulations setthepace andtheEUfollows. particular, In legislation concerning connectivity,

13 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 5 4 3 2 1 0 SAE level DG • DGMOVEistaskedwithdelivering asafe, efficient, secure, and environmentallyfriendly • mobility, whichwould settheconditions for generating acompetitivegrowth industry andjobs. sustainable andinclusive growth throughout Europe. is working to establishadigital inorder isworking singlemarket CONNECT to engendersmart, Full Automation AutomationHigh Automation Conditional Partial Automation Driver Assistance No Automation of WP.1’s discussions are madeavailable. Accordingly, WP.29 theresults discussionsafter willstart scope ofthecurrent Vienna Conventions. andGeneva it is likely that these levels cannot be addressed in the andthereforedriving thedriver isnotheldresponsible, Since itisinthedomainofalmostfullyautomated applicable usecase, etc. WP.29 willshare technical information for each forrange drivers. ofsub-tasks To thisdiscussion, support Mostly WP.1 willaddress issuessuchasthepermissible necessary. driving, andwillshare information onACSF with WP.1 as driver monitors thesurroundings andisresponsible for (including guidelines)basedontheassumptionthat the Mostly WP.29 willdiscusseachrelated standard NA (incompliance withthecurrent regulation) NA (incompliance withthecurrent regulation) How to address 8 This meansthat the 22/10/2016). (lastaccessed:cmint16-1-en.html com/knowledge/publications/ Conduct, http://www.genre. and Regulation ofDriver Type Approval Framework EU: Proposals to Amend the Automated Vehicles inthe S.Lutz8. Lennart (2016): www.policy-network.net

policy network special report is an ambition shared by policymakers and industry leadersacross thecontinent. andindustry is anambitionshared by policymakers that can seamlessly communicate both with one another and with surrounding infrastructure. This vehicles connected to –vehicles beready implementation byofself-driving 2019for thewide-scale

meeting ofthe Transport Council inAmsterdam ministers ofall28European Unionmemberstates signed the informal 2016,during iton14April development technology intheEuropean andimplementation ofself-driving Union. The transport aimsto industry. setoutallthestepsmember states that are It andthetransport required for the resulted in The Amsterdam Declaration whichisjointly backedby theEuropean commission, EU institutions inseveral areas, oneofwhichwas automated driving. The work oftheDutch presidency to find compromises2016, ittook between the 28EUmember states aleadontrying andbetween EU ofthecouncil oftheEuropeanWhen heldthepresidency theNetherlands Unioninthefirsthalfof security, netneutrality, androaming willalsoinform thediscussionsofGEAR2030. discussions. DGCONNECT’s work to connected autonomous vehicles suchas5Gcoverage, cyber platform (“C-ITS” platform), adiscussionforum connectivity, forvehicle willinform theGEAR2030 This group willuseexisting platforms asmuchpossible. For instance, theConnected Driving and, mostimportantly, perhaps theimplementation ofautomated vehicles. andconnected new globalchallenges;aspotlight on trade, international harmonisation andglobalcompetitiveness; automotive industry. GEAR 2030 focuses onthree areas the application ofwork: ofthe value chain to approach between memberstates, andto address thecompetitive challengesfaced by theEuropean LevelEU High Group for theautomotive overarching industry. Its aim isto ensure aco-ordinated equipped withlevel 3automation andbeyond remain inagrey area. regulatory GEAR2030isan Existing EUregulation to vehicles doesnotposeabarrier withlevel 2automation. However, vehicles GEAR upby 2030 friction anddifferentlyfriction competing demandsbetween thedifferent DG. overall leadership onthequestionofADandthat theshaping offuture to rulescould besubject This multi-headedapproach didleave many ofthosewe spoketo worried that there was alackof 14 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 DG • DG • isresponsible sustainable, for theEUinto andinclusive helping turn asmart, DGGROWTH • DGFISMA (Financial Stability, Union)isresponsible Financial andCapital Markets for Services • Europe’s justice systems. spur technological innovation andeconomic growth, anddelivering theEU’s space policy. economy. focuses onfostering It entrepreneurship andgrowth, launchingresearch to actions initiating and implementing policy in the area of Banking andFinance. intheareainitiating ofBanking andimplementing policy into world-beatingfor businesses. scalingstartups Research’s role centres onestablishingEurope asaleadinghubfor disruptive innovation and JUSTICE seeksto buildaEuropean area ofjustice up by upholdingtheruleoflaw andlinking “The commission’s“The working group are operating like ananimalonsixlegs” -Senior official,-Senior European commission 9 . The overarching ambition isfor theEuropean Union 09/11/2016). in-amsterdam (lastaccessed: to-try-out-self-driving-cars- news/2016/04/14/eu-ministers- english.eu2016.nl/latest/ cars inAmsterdam, https:// outself-driving ministers to try 2016(2016):EU presidency 9. The EU Netherlands www.policy-network.net

policy network special report access to vehicle data by athird party, whichcanjeopardise thesafety ofthecarandpassengers. Amajorconcern playing and regulatory with eachotherandto field anetwork. for theEUis when automated and data cars privacy are connected will be the cybersecurity an EU perspective itlegallybindingfor memberstatesmaking andimmediately enforceable. More interestingly from From ourconversations itwas clearthat that directive might beupgraded to anEUregulation administrative innature onEurope’s having alimited impact regulatory driverless future. 2016by theEuropean2007/46 EC–aproposal was commission tabledinJanuary –it willbemainly As mostEU countries are largely complaint withUNregulations theenvisaged reform ofDirective Upgrade EUrules anddata rules frameworkregulatory inlight oftheaforementioned developments. groups related to automated driving, discussnational developments andtheimplementation ofa guidelines setoutinthedeclaration, butitwould also liaisewithexisting EUplatforms andworking dialogue, opento allEUmemberstates. This dialoguewould notonlydiscuss theissuesand orderIn to fulfilthesegoals, the Amsterdam declaration proposes aninformal high-level structural Convention would to doso. limittheircapacity test and implement fully autonomous cars, because, above, as described the current phrasing of the for EUcountries thatespecially important are signatories ofthe Vienna Convention andwhowishto Nations inorder to establishcongruence between EUregulations and the Vienna Convention. This is This Amsterdam declaration alsorecognised theneed for theEUto cooperate withtheUnited awareness andacceptance ofautomated vehicles. to theavailability ofdata for publictaskssuchastraffic management as wellasheightening public communication systems that would beinteroperable ontheEUscaleandwhichcould contribute (V2I) andvehicle-to-infrastructure to fostering thedevelopment (V2V) ofvehicle-to-vehicle strategy andautomated onconnected driving. involvementThis industry was seenasessential indeveloping theEU conversations participation Our ofindustry alsohighlighted theimportance anddataprotection would security needto decidedandmanagedatthislevel.” be ofcyber Questions thatare regulated aspects attheEUlevel andprotection mechanisms. are“Two thedatasecurity important figure inSpain explained transport to us: As anexpert automated vehicle technology, butwhere insomecasesnational ruleshave greater sway. ofconcerns aroundliability, issuesat theheart important privacy, issues–allvery anddata security to another. This cooperation could alsostrengthen thecohesiveness ofagreements concerning thereof ofrulesconcerning could automated impairtheequalapplicability from driving onecountry The document ofcooperation underscores between EUmemberstates, theimportance asalack 15 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 there are similarregulations throughout different regions, sothat “The government’s“The role centred shouldbe sure that onmaking autonomous vehicles can seamlesslycirculate” Industry leader,Industry Spain. www.policy-network.net

policy network special report exceeds any healthguideline–giving added impetus to vehicles. theneedfor electric KoreaSouth orSingapore, where mostmetropolitan areas are extremely congested andairpollution explained by themore proactive andprogressive incountries suchasJapan,China, policy industrial This perceived lossoftouch canbeinpart withthelatest mobility developments inelectric field ofautonomous drive: that Germany behindintheemerging mustnotfallsimilarly determination amongpolicymakers This seemingfailure to stay ‘ahead ofthegame’ hasonlyaddedto a mobility onelectric vehicles were25,000 electric registered, anincrease ofamere 6,500vehicles over 2015. according to officialfigures bythe Office Federal for Motor January2016 atotalof Traffic,just over by vehicles roadstarget, on German by of 1m electric 2020,seemshighlyambitiousgiven that, vehicles.consumption ofelectric Thus far, though,itisseenashaving failedto deliver. The official National withtheaimofpromoting Platform thedevelopment Mobility) for ofmass Electric To addresswas launchedby thisconcern thegovernment aconsortium inMay 2010 (theGerman figures throughout theEU, evenGermany. in carsmore attractive andleadingto electric growingrange –theadditionalrange making sales technological andhybrid leadershipinthedevelopment modelswithexpanded driving ofelectric Nowadays Nissan/Renault, Tesla and Toyota asclaiming are seenby many industry intheGerman reliant, almostdefined, by the automotive sector. so ina country policymakers nationalthe pace soul searching –producing and worrying a certain andhybridforeign€20bn, inthearea mobility ofelectric competitors have beenperceived assetting aremanufacturers world leadersinresearch anddevelopment, investment in2015totalled of the technologies power of the future: electric and automated systems. driving Although German that dominance have itsmanufacturers recently come underconsiderable pressure to develop Germany continues to car sector, dominate the highly profitable luxury but in order to maintain two thirds makesnearly country’s ofitsrevenues actually abroad. automobile industry –fourin theirdomesticmarket outoffiveGermany carsbought in are madeonhome soil –the more than€400bninannualrevenues in2015.Despite domination for manufacturers German economy,export-orientated employing 800,000highlyqualified nearly andgeneratingworkers remains absolutelyThe central automobile industry to Germany’s andits sector manufacturing regulatory landscape German andagreed.be tackled Europeandata –whichare concern, aparticular especiallyintheEuropean –willneedto parliament between its different areas of and,work as we shall see inchapter four, the issue of rules around The madeheadway EUhasclearly inpreparing for ADitwillneedto ensure truecoordination 16 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 leadership on electric mobility,leadership onelectric competitors, mainlyto Asian but the government will stand firm behind efforts tomakebut thegovernment behind efforts willstandfirm “The German automobile haslostitstechnological German sector “The autonomous drivingasuccess story” Government official, Germany. www.policy-network.net

policy network special report adding it as a sixth policy dimensionto theagenda. policy adding itasasixth ofpublicacceptancedriverless carsthegovernment theimportance inthisdebate acknowledged consequence ofthisincident andstudiesindicating thelevel of ofpublicconcern aboutthesecurity technologiesdriving might bearasubstantialnotjustto risk thedriver butto allroad users. As a attention media,itfinallybecameclear to the public that intheGerman immature automated of steering wheels. With theJuly2016fatal accident involving a Tesla vehicle receiving widespread Another issuethat the roundtable discussedwas that ofpublicconcern control aboutrobots taking technology development andresearch ofkey technologies andthetransition to anautonomous future: of automated technology. driving The agenda identifies five areas that it sees as crucial for the for the economy as a whole. The goal is to make Germany for, the leading market and provider onautonomous drive, plan of action German ofautomobiles given out adistinct theimportance published a white paper calledthe “Strategy for Automated and Connected Driving”. This paper sets group, oftransport Partly based on the discussionsofthisexpert in September 2015 the ministry for theintroduction ofhighlysophisticated automated vehicles roads. onGerman ofthisinitiative themainpurpose was to transformationpolicymakers assisttheindustrial needed and roundtable experts onautomatic leaders, driving.expert transport Bringing together industry orderIn to bewell prepared for theautonomous future government theGerman launchedan A coordinated government strategy for anautonomous future: Mobilität 4.0 comes to theautonomous future. are now determined policymakers to thislessonandnotrepeat learn German mistakeswhenit vehicle whichledto anincrease admissionrestrictions insalesof188,000vehicles in2015 alone. in China,where thegovernment offered customers purchase subsidiesand exemptions from local These are that have thefactors played amajorrole vehicles inincreasing thenumberofelectric environmentfiscal policy accompanied by publicandprivate investment inchanging infrastructure. is that thegovernment rightonlyifitcreates cangetautomotive and regulatory policy afriendly The messagethat hasbeenheededinGermany from therelative one-mobility failure ofitspolicy 17 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. “A nottrustthetechnology yet majorissueisthatthepublicdoes cyber-attacks anddata violations bycyber-attacks third parties. Guaranteeing highlevels ofIT-security anddata protection across boarders of minimisingrisks and sophisticated mappingsystems Actively encouraging andinteraction ofvehicles connection andinfrastructure usinggeo-data uptesting andpromotingSetting fieldsonmotorways R&D potentialto harness gainsof andequipment testssurveillance systemsdriving andaddressing issues, education, liability includingdriving technical Adjusting national andinternational legislation andreforming admissionrulesfor automated systems andnear motorways) of automated systems onroads (eghigh-speedbroadband, andmotorways sensorsinsignalling Digital standards infrastructure andindustrial that would operation allow aninterference-free although itismuch already” better andsafer Senior governmentSenior official, Germany. www.policy-network.net

policy network special report real-world testing withafundof€80m. complicated research rural roads. andurban and further intends to support ministry The transport minister (CSU) Alexander Dobrindt announced ofthistestingtransport anextension regime to more federal analysis by October thelocalauthorities. In to acase-by-case testing can beobtainedsubject test new technologies under real-world inBavaria. conditions ontheA9motorway Permission for The government hasalsoinvited carmanufacturers, ITandtelecommunications firms to develop and follow thosestandardised rules. procedures aconsiderable would competitive give industry edge, German asotherswould have to highly automated assistance driving systems. successful If andappliedinternationally thesetest 2016. This research isdevoted project to thestandardisation oftesting andadmissionsystems for of autonomous technologies, ofEconomic theFederal Affairs launched Ministry “Pegasus” inJanuary oftheattempt to adoptanintegratedAs part approach to promoting theresearch anddevelopment technology issafer overall andlessbenefit to beperceived in oftimesaved.terms less overall and drive more aggressively, causingmotorists there to have doubtsaboutwhetherthe over would allow themto focus onotherthings, contrast, suchasleisure travel In orwork. Germans potential to gainmore from control spendinglesstimeinactive ofacar. Allowing themachineto take behind thewheelsolelydriving. Put simply, USdrivers, whotend to have longercommutes, have the more timeinthecaralsoincreases people’s awareness ofthepotential benefitsofnothaving to sit people have longercommutes, drive more defensively andmore slowly thaninGermany. Spending this showed that thepublicviewofautonomous vehicles ismuchmore positive intheUS,where ofitsdeliberation process As part theroundtable commissioned amultinational driver survey; 18 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 “If we“If don’t take publicconcerns ofAV technology seriousenough we might endupwithanotherdebate similarto theoneover fracking” Senior policy adviser, policy Senior Germany. Commons credit: Wikimedia Picture www.policy-network.net

policy network special report gender, and, incaseofaccident, isresponsible. themanufacturer damage takesprecedence over personalinjuries, machinesmustnotclassifypeopleby size, ageor roads.humans onGerman hasindicated Dobrindt that there willbethree property keyprinciples: up. willdevelop guidelines aheadofformal It legislation andtheinteraction ofAV onliability with including the ‘trolley dilemma’ themoral (seebox), choices ADthrows whichisseenascrystallising foundations and investigate themoral issues offullvehicle autonomy offullvehicle autonomy, federalof thejudgesGerman constitutional court. The commission’s goalisto lay theethical commission that was establishedinSeptember2016andischaired by UdodiFabio, aformer chair following will need to take intothe 2017 federal It account election. the conclusions of an ethics term, reform parliamentary At ofthetraffic the further theearliest, next during codecan be expected attention otherthandriving. to activities stipulates that ahighlyorfullyautomated system driving cantakeover whilethedriver her averts traditionGerman of creating the reflects ‘Rechtssicherheit’ (legal certainty). The legislative proposal update rulesare existing liability regulated onnational level. The current debate onthereform best manufacturer. Whereas admissionrulesare regulated onEU-level legislative measures aimingto question ofwhoisliableincaseanaccidentstands thedelicate –peopleormachine/ andtricky At the core of minister Dobrindt’s traffic code reform, which is currently under ministerial review, adaptionofgreaterthe way for levels thewide-scale ofAV technology. as incompatible with existing national regulations. Greater will be needed to pave clarity regulatory override isthemainreason regarded why are fullyautomated inGermany partially functions driving to override any at fullyautomated any function driving time vehicles. For theuseofAV roads technology onGerman thismeansthat thedriver has to beable isdesigned forIt aworld where humansrather thanmachinesorcomputers assistorfullyoperate its currentIn form theroad traffic driving ofthemanual German thespirit lawage. reflects for to isexpected andothersceptics achieve hisproposals.of Maas andDobrindt coalition support and introduction of AV technology and, thus, in the national interest, trumped the political suspicion belief from issuesiscrucialfor government onliability thedevelopment advisersthat legalclarity announced itwould takeGermany to ofjustice.) theEuropean court However, onAV reform thestrong the European road of the commissionpotentially charge questioned the legality discriminatory and and raised theperception ofanattempt at winningpoliticalfavour. (Although inSeptember2016 Dobrindt’s attempts to introduce highway tolls for foreign drivers hadproved popularwithvoters minister would usethistopicthe ambitioustransport asanexercise inself-profiling/promotion. Democrats areSocial largely in favour of promoting the changesof AV technology they feared that instead favoured issuesbeingresolved rather liability thaninparliament. inthecourts While the May in 2016 initialefforts wereHis metwithscepticism by SPDjustice ministerMaas, Heiko who was inevitableifhewas to secure SPD backing. neededasoundandconvincing Dobrindt argumentCDU/CSU andSPDpartners, asto why a reform mid-December 2016.As legislation onAV was notincludedinthecoalition agreement between the minister, has made it clear that he intends to table a legislative proposal to the federal cabinet by framework gettheregulatory inplace. isto actually the priority Alexander thetransport Dobrindt, Across ofanautonomous allfive future governmentGerman oftheaspects the hasoutlinedthat Existing rules andreforms inthepipeline: 19 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 “We stillhave“We concerns forfully whethertechnology isripe autonomous vehicles onourroads” Senior parliamentary adviser, parliamentary Senior Germany. Verkehrspolitik 4.0 . At present thisprerequisite ofmanual www.policy-network.net

policy network special report stage, most likely after the general election inautumn2017. stage, thegeneral mostlikelyafter election autonomy to commission therecommendations anddealtwithat willbesubject alater ofanexpert parliament. Those laws that need to theethical, reflect moral and consumer protection issuesoffull interviews, itislikelythat thebillwillpasslegislative hurdle in bothchambersofthefederal warning sign by thesystem. The proposed bill is yet to pass parliament, butas became clear in our require a human driver who must be prepared to take over the wheel given an optical and acoustic moment whenanaccident happened. However, regardless ofthelevel ofautomatisation thiswillstill of blackbox recorders into vehicles to determine whetherpersonormachine was incharge at the systems. as ablueprint for what could othercountries, In serve anewbillproposes the installation allow AV test drives andregulating commercial useofhighlyautomated andautonomous driving have summary, policymakers takenapragmaticIn German approach to gettingrulesinplace that by puttingitontheinternational agenda,includingintheG7andBrussels. national legislation, needsto continue Dobrindt pushinghard for arevision ofthe Vienna Convention However, itisnotyet acomplete solutionfor afullyautonomous future. additionto updating In Bundestag, itwillcleartheway for vehicles withconditional automation to roads. taketo German Assuming theproposed billto reform thenational traffic codepassesitslegislative hurdles inthe 20 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 and notdiscouraging buyers” usedbyalgorithms AVs needto accomplish: consistent,“being notcausingpublicoutrage, of Oregon, andMITidentified three key(potentially incompatible) that objectives the The authorsofajoint studybetween the Toulouse ofEconomics, School theUniversity cars. whichdecisionwillautonomous So vehicles beprogrammedself-driving to make? ethical debates, theoutcome ofwhichwillneedto bereflected inthe technology ofthese oneoftwo different (orevenbetween injuring killing) parties. This choice embodiesdeep and someofthosewillrequire theautonomous carto makethealmostimpossiblechoice our roads. Although traffic accidents will become rarer, someincidents will be unavoidable accidents withaconsequent positive effectonlowering on thelevel ofdeath andinjury vehicles holdsthepotential toof self-driving significantly reduce the total number ofcar As 90percent ormore oftraffic accidents are causederror, byhuman theimplementation The trolley vehicles considerations dilemma:self-driving andethical might sacrifice themintheevent ofanaccident for the ‘greater moral good’. is far from assured. Potential purchasers will need persuading before they buy a car which programmed into AV’s carsand propensity willsignificantlyto purchase impact self-driving outcome ofthe ‘trolley problem’ matters: gaining publicacceptance for the ‘moral’ choices two different orkilling between injuring Consumer opinion parties. regarding thepreferable vehicle would makewhenconfrontedself-driving withascenario where itmustchoose the context ofautomatedIn vehicles, thetrolley problem refers to thechoice that a asingleperson. into killing change itsdirection anothertrack, letting thetrolley advance, more alever thanoneperson,orturning that killing would malfunctioned. This forces theindividualinthought experiment to choosebetween onesetofpeopleoranother.choice between killing thisscenario, In atrolley’s brakes have ofthisdebate isthe At theheart ‘trolley problem’, ahypothetical scenario consisting ofa [1] . accessed: 09/11/2016). papers/1510/1510.03346.pdf (last https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/ of autonomous vehicles, (2015): The socialdilemma RahwanIyad and Shariff Azim [1] Jean-François Bonnefon, www.policy-network.net

policy network special report testing ofautomated roads. andautonomous ofBritish technology onalltypes first target ofthis ‘rolling’ programme hasbeen to develop environment afriendly for the responsible administration approach as is developing best described a policy ‘rolling programme regulation’. The The aimisto create aseamlessandprosperous autonomous future, to achieve whichtheBritish for for Business,(now Strategy) Energy theDepartment andIndustrial andtheDepartment Transport. and Autonomous Vehicles, for Business, unit between theDepartment Innovation &Skills ajoint policy Taking theUKleadindebate onthedevelopment andintroduction ofADistheCentre for Connected productive sector. bought intheUKare mainlyfrom imported, theEU. cent ofvehicles andconversely intheUKare manufactured exported more than80percent ofvehicles However, remains heavily dependent onoverseas theUKindustry andopentrade; markets 77.3per more rapidly thaneitherGermany orFrance. 2008 the UK share of global vehicle share production fell by 25 per cent to 2.43 per cent, dropping in the UK Althoughcontext, a successhas lost ground globally the sector story – between 1995 and overall. sector uponein20workers inthemanufacturing making and beyond. 2014, 142,000 employees In industry, worked in thevehicle directly manufacturing astheEuropean basefor serving –often international throughoutsector brandstheEU to export UK volume marque Rover globally was athriving noughties finallyclosedintheearly left focused international ofattracting investment.explicit policy was astrategy It that worked –whenthelast thethen declinedinthenineteen-eighties manufacturers Thatcher government onan embarked orientation. As theoriginal isitsexport abouttheUKindustry factor The moststriking ‘British’ car for Progressive Capitalism, a share ofGDPdeclinedby 8.4percent between 1995and2015according to astudyby theCentre contributor to thecountry’s sector. sometimestroubled manufacturing as Whereas manufacturing has Thebeen one of the success automotive stories of the UK economy, industry and a solid UK regulatory landscape in 2015,withincreased demandat home andacross thecontinent. reaching a10-year figures, highinproduction growing by 3.9per cent to more than1.58m vehicles development ofautonomous vehicles. compared to mostotherEuropean countries, itisaimingfor theUKto beat theforefront ofthe The government British more hasbeenexplicit that, despite ahitherto off’‘hands policy industrial anautonomous future: rollingSeeking programme regulation onthecontinent. trading partners about thefuture shapeoftrade relations isnaturally concerning for and bothUKmanufacturers 21 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 to support investments inR&DofAVto support technologies “The government deploying hasbeen astrategy“The 11 where the economy is particularly strong”where theeconomy isparticularly to become aworld leader, mostlyinareas 10 the motor vehicle industry hasbeenoneoftop five themotor vehicle enablersofthe industry Senior governmentSenior adviser, UK. 13 Most recently, Most hasbounced back, thecarindustry 15 As Britain departs from theEU, As departs Britain uncertainty 14 accessed: 24/10/2016). uk/20160105160709/ (last nationalarchives.gov. industry, http://webarchive. motor vehicle manufacturing oftheUK’sperformance Statistics (2015): The economic 15. Office for National 24/10/2016). record-high/ (lastaccessed: manufacturing-as-exports-reach- in-a-decade-for-british-car- smmt.co.uk/2016/01/best-year- reach record high,http://www. asexports manufacturing in adecadefor car British 14. SMMT year (2016):Best PICSIEBooks, p.Buckingham: 62. of theUKautomotive industry, (2009): The competitive status PodpolnyDavies andDmitry Holweg,13. Matthias Philip 01/11/2016). SN00611, p. 6(lastaccessed uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/ researchbriefings.parliament. of Commons Library, http:// statistics andpolicy, in:House (2015): Sear The motor industry: andDominic Rhodes 12. Chris (last accessed: 27/11/2016). corpnmdwhite-paper-2016.ashx media/files/nmd/160525- https://www.cranfield.ac.uk/~/ its economic contribution, growthUK manufacturing and 11. Cranfield University (2016): Progressive Capitalism. strategy, Centre London, UK: for Apost-Brexiteconomy: industrial theUK (2016):Rebalancing Reed 10. Thomas Aubrey andAlastair www.policy-network.net

policy network special report autonomous vehicles compared with39percent ofnon-UKrespondents. 55 per cent of drivers polled in the UK do not feel alongside withtheidea of driving comfortable concern intheUKthanelsewhere. Arecent studyby the London ofEconomics School found that and safety ofAV assured. because, thusfar,This isimportant road safety around ADremains abigger in thecaseofanaccident, carormachine, consumers willnothave theirconfidence inthesecurity andconsumers. industry The itremains isinstructive. example ofliability If unclearwhoisto blame However, delaying decisionsonlegislation, while maintaining flexibility, to someuncertainty brings dominant Germany, andthenFrance. account for justunder10percent ofthecollective EUturnover, theUKthird onlybehindthe ranking one third of all the EU-28’s motor vehicle are manufacturers located which together in Britain, canbeseenin sector carmanufacturing and diversity oftheBritish Table that almost isstriking 2.It Despite thepopularimage of theUK as a ‘post-manufacturing’, economy, service-led theimportance more concentrated andcapableofbringing forward itsown R&D. Sweden butdifferent andtheNetherlands from is Germany sector where thecarmanufacturing strengths inresearch, businessesdevelopment andservices. This in approach issimilarto policy presence are) thegovernment an approach that aimsto istaking economy’s best fitthe British core car suppliersandtech althoughmany firms), ofthe international companies withsignificant UK for20 Original Equipment(OEMs car manufacturers, Manufacturers -theterm usedintheindustry rather thaninvestment ininfrastructure itself. As UKowned companies are notpresent inthetop- what infrastructure willbeneeded, UKgovernment research spendingprioritises anddevelopment what technology aboutexactly willlooklike inafewGiven years theuncertainty andtherefore to ensure theUKisnottiedinlegislatively before thedetailedshapeofADisclear: allow thegovernment flexibility toadjust andevolve theruleson AV. This‘be onstandby’ stance aims and representative bodies, suchastheAutomotive Council UK. This integrated approach should technological developments leaders through engagement inconstructive dialoguewithindustry appropriate andneeded. Framing that legislation willinvolve keepingupwiththemostrecent legislators will need to be stepsready to to change legislation take the necessary as soon as phaseofADdevelopment,of thenext whichwillseeautonomous vehicles brought to market, The government calculates that to buildonthisliberal regime for testing andensure UKleadership 22 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 comprehensive framework policy into place. makes It more senseto “As asto how fornow AV itistoo uncertain technology willshape up inthemediumandlongterm whichmakes itdifficult toputa take attherighttime” insteps andadjustwhere necessary Senior governmentSenior adviser, UK. 16 21/10/2016). road-1110.pdf (lastaccessed: AVs-negociating-a-place-on-the- ac.uk/newsAndMedia/PDF/ on theRoad, http://www.lse. Vehicles -Negotiating aPlace Economics (2016):Autonomous 16. London of Schools www.policy-network.net

policy network special report special permission solongastheappropriatespecial permission licence requirements are met. makesclearthatof practice inorder to to test obtain driverless vehicles intheUKitisnotnecessary hopes that theevolution ofautomated technology willincrease thesafety ofallroad users. This code setting outguidelinesonbasic safety andinsurance amongotherrequirements, theUKgovernment would minimisethe potential of testing risks automated vehicle technology onpublicroads. In February 2015. The overarching aimofthiscode was ofpractice to setoutrecommendations that for The Department Transport’s code ofpractice, The Pathway to Driverless Cars, was published in liberal testing regime inthosecountries whichhave ratified theagreement. 2014amendmentsbecause oftheApril to the Vienna Convention whichhave amore sanctioned driver control. thoughthisisnow JustasinSpain,thisoffered ofless relevance theUKaheadstart has not ratified itand sees AV testing as compatible with the convention’s requirement for proper that have ratified the Vienna Convention do. Though theUKhassigned the Vienna Convention, it cars that thosecountries The UKisalsoaided by onself-driving notfacingsomeoftherestrictions described asincremental.described carsbasedondialoguewithindustry. Ultimately,testing ofself-driving strategy theBritish canbe targeted investment and, astechnology isrolled out, through thepublication ofregulations for the forgovernmental research support andtesting ofautonomous cars, facilitated by continued, and autonomous vehicles framework in its regulatory for the automotive sector. The to UKhastried enthusiastically embrace thedevelopment andimplementation ofconnected Source: Euorstat (2015). Table 2: 23 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 United Kingdom France Spain Germany Italy Sweden Czech Republic Slovakia Poland Hungary Netherlands EU-28 which it sees as a solution to more efficient transport infrastructurewhich itseesasasolutionto more efficient transport communities shut outofconventional infrastructure.” transport and abigdriver inclusionimproving ofsocial to connectivity Top 10EUvehicle (2014) andparts/accessories manufacturers “The UK government is very supportive ofAVs UKgovernment supportive isvery “The manufacturers manufacturers 17 Vehicle 2,256 731 171 113 262 144 174 101 113 152 54 47 Senior governmentUK. Senior official, Turnover in% 11.9 51.8 100 9.7 6.2 5.8 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.9 0.1 2 Parts/accessories manufacturers 10,300 1,242 1,264 1,405 764 806 629 825 188 920 333 167

Turnover in% There is strong 34.1 100 9.1 5.8 7.1 8.5 2.2 8.3 3.6 6.8 4.3 0.1 accessed: 21/10/2016). statistics_-_NACE_Rev._2 (last index.php/Manufacturing_ eurostat/statistics-explained/ Rev. 2, http://ec.europa.eu/ statistics -NACE Manufacturing 17. Eurostat (2015): www.policy-network.net

policy network special report this research are of2017. inspring/summer expected and security, thereby growing understandingofAV technology. The first results and feedback from toexpected makepeoplefeel more andfamiliarwithAV, comfortable increasing feelings ofsafety cars. First-handon self-driving experience withautonomous vehicles environments inurban is UK asapremier hubfor research into AVs. Second, itsought to favourably shapepublic opinion This testing funding had two aims: first, to test driverless cars in real-life situations, establishing the support is limited and has been significantly curtailed inthe continuing islimited spendingsqueeze. andhasbeensignificantly curtailed support whereshould beseenassignificant ina overallcountry government direct investment inbusiness AV research andimplementation through £100minfundingfor Fund. theIntelligent Mobility This for support step that onADisdetailedroadRealising thenext testing in2015hepledgedfurther Greenwichin the UK: (south east London), Bristol, jointly). Keynes and Coventry and Milton (working Osborne, in 2014, paid for an initial round of testing initiatives of driverless cars in four areas urban This first round ofUKgovernmentfor support AV testing, announced by thethenchancellor,George Taking step: thenext testing inurban environments location for foreign investment direct (FDI). UK become seenasthemost ‘AV friendly’ place to dobusinessand, thus, continue to beanattractive approach –isthat suchalight-touch, makesthe – anotunfamiliaronefor UKpolicy industry-friendly large scaletesting onpublicroads in challenging anddiverse traffic and weather conditions. Theaim implementation of automated vehicle technology, with the aim of encouraging long distance and sum,theUKgovernmentIn orlight-touch isadoptinganon-regulatory approach to thetesting and changetoof securing international regulations by theendof2018. international level, theUKgovernment announced itwould liaisewithothercountries withtheaim and to promote safety (in order to avoid threats). collisions Furthermore, and to cyber avert at the AV collision, amendregulations onvehicle use(includingamendingthecurrent Highway Code) to liabilitiesintheevent clarify bringing forward legislation ofan isseeking by summer2017.It to accommodatingamend domestic regulations driverlesspertaining vehicle technology before ofthe2016Queen’sAs part speech,theUKgovernment alsopledgeditwould work to review and 24 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 “Test andresearch environment ismuch more andtransparent open AV technology inanurbancontext, seetheGATEway project in than inothercountries. We were thefirst to thinkabout Greenwich orLUTZMilton pathfinderin Keynes” “People needto experience AV technology first beforefirst they can trustit.” Research andinnovation leader, UK. Project managerandAV UK. expert, www.policy-network.net

policy network special report and developing andautonomous newconnected vehicle technologies. Centre for Connected andAutonomous Vehicles aimedat and£5mfrom researching Innovate UK) On August 2016, the government opened a competition backed by £35m of funding (£30m from the information systems inmetropolitan areas. aiming to develop theinter-vehicle communication androadside infrastructure for intelligent Patrick McLoughlin, that would £20moffunding(from beawarded Innovate UK) to eight projects On February 2016,itwas announced by thenbusinesssecretary, secretary, Javid, Sajid andtransport 25 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 current fast-paced-technology era. a safe andvalidated test environment that drives bothjob creation andinvestment inthe figures appreciate theimplications ofautonomous cars, leading to theimplementation of deliveries.shuttles andurban doingso, andregulatory In italsoaimsto assistbothindustry Lab, Mobility ofdiffering validating uses aspectrum UK Smart for driverless cars, including setting. carsinan urban GATEway’soperation offullyself-driving testing takesplace in TRL’s to recognise andovercome thetechnical, legal, andsocietalchallengesposedby the Environment) is an £8m research by spearheaded project overarchingTRL. Its aim is Greenwich London),In GATEway (south-east (Greenwich Automated Transport of innovation”. represent “a evidence thatisat Britain theforefront ground-breaking moment andfurther areas. At Greg remarked thepublictrial, Clark that BusinessandEnergy thetrials Secretary company). The goalofthesedriverless podsisto provide inurban localtransportation Institute,Robotics andwas implemented by Oxbotica (theOxford University spinout runningtheLUTZsoftware pathfinder, was developed by Oxford University’s Oxford beingindevelopment 2016,after forin October 18months. theautonomy Selenium, stretch area ofapedestrianised Keynes ona2km inMilton andcyclists pedestrians A LUTZ pathfinder built by among was publiclytrialled (TSC) SystemsTransport Catapult Coventry Keynes. andMilton will conclude in2018withasuccession ofopen-road trails anddemonstrations inboth road in the areas trials of Coventry Keynes near the end of 2017. and Milton The project in Nuneaton, Warwickshire of2017,before thespring during advancing onto closed Successive anddemonstrations trials are programmed to takeplace at atechnology park completed the UK’s first collaborative of autonomous trials 21 2016). October vehicles (on far,So 2016),andhas October (inearly ithaslauncheditsfirstpublic attitude survey testing automated-vehicle ofthegovernment-backed technology competition. aspart isthelargest ofthethree 2018.It separateOctober research groups that are presently UK Autodrive inCoventry Keynes, isaproject andMilton runningfor three years until Bringing itto thecities:Autodrive, LUTZ andGATEway www.policy-network.net

policy network special report the economy has been historically underperforming therestthe economy ofthecountry. hasbeenhistorically underperforming devolution islikelyto continue channellinginvestment to andstrategic thoseregions where support and development announced by Hammond’s predecessor inthe2015 budget. The emphasison AV technology, from government the British with more support than the active £19m for research and to share on new ventures: risks thismay well create apropitious climate for the development of between thepublicand private sectors. There funding to direct towards willbeaneffort innovation The emphasis of the UK government’s strategy industrial is likely to be ‘partnership’ and ‘collaboration’ by government butwe’ve sofarseennoreal action’. costs. We lackaproper energy compensation schemefor manufacturing. This hasbeentalkedabout taxesof lackinvestment becauseofextra piledon to energy ingenerationandpartly capacity deregulated in the world. But UK energy prices are far higher than continental because Europe partly David Bailey, oftheUniversity ofCoventry, OECDseestheUKeconomy asoneofthemost ‘The end ofthedecadeinorder investment to prioritise inphysical infrastructure. According to Professor Hammond, hassignalled hewillabandontheprevious target ofachievingafiscalsurplus by the by investing ininfrastructure whileUKborrowing rates remain historically low. The chancellor, Philip long-term growth energy long-standingissuessuchasrising costs potential. alsomeanstackling It government channellinginvestment andcapitaltowards fledglingenterprises andinnovations with winners’ and out’‘bail failingbusinessesto protect jobsandlivingstandards, butitdoesmean of Thisthe 1970s in which the state does not mean a return sought to to policy the industrial ‘pick of andthe City London. dependence onfinancialservices sector. The argument isthat hasmore Britain to doto ‘re-balance theeconomy’ away from itshistoric but government will want to use all of the levers at its disposal to strengthen the UK manufacturing heavily for Brexit). businesses,The fallingvalue to ofthepoundisexpected helpmanufacturing by globalisation since consequently the1980s(andperhaps theareas that tended to vote most appealing to the behind’‘left regions that ofBritain are perceived to have beennegatively affected the strategic intheUKeconomy, positionofmanufacturing a messagewhichisparticularly As aconsequence, there islikelyto begreater emphasisfrom thenewgovernment onsafeguarding determined to put interests’‘British first. Point usingChineseinvestment landscape;sheis was symptomatic ofthischangeinthepolicy interest isprotected. Herdecisionto review ofanewpower theconstruction station at Hinckley inkeygrowthproductivity sectors, whileMay isdetermined to ensure that thenational economic new approach views thestate asableto play aconstructive role infostering greater innovation and from abroadly shift laissez-fairepolicy approach towards policy. industrial aninterventionist The Conservatives have remained thegoverning party, May’s administration hasannounced amajor from David Cameron in the wake of the decision by voters British to leave the EU. The UKhasrecently witnessedachangeofgovernment as Theresa May took over thepremiership The ofBrexit effects onthefuture ofautonomous policy vehicle failures,from andsoftware orcruisecontrol. cyber-attacks suchasautomatic parking was thefirst worldwide to launchdriverless carinsurance; protectingbased inNorfolk, customers required byof expertise AD:suchascybersecurity, common law orinsurance. Adrian Flux, aninsurer The UKalsoaimsto leverage itsstrengths inprofessional to play aleadingrole services areas insofter testing andapproval methods, similarto thePegasus inGermany. project have ledusto believe that plansare underreview to channelpublicfundinginto thedevelopment of The UKalsohasanambitionto play arole intherace for standards. settingindustrial conversations Our 26 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 Although the www.policy-network.net

policy network special report cent asignificant ofGDPmarks increase from five per cent in2014. played in Spain’s an especially significant part growing sincerecovery crisis - that the financial 8.7 per national GDPin2015according to ANFAC, Spain’s association ofcarmanufacturers. has The sector makes vehicle absolutely production vitalto theSpanisheconomy, accounting for 8.7percent of Europe, behindGermany, whichputsitintheeighth positioninthegloballeaguetable. This strength hasflourished oversector thepasthalf century.It isnow thesecond largest in carmanufacturer may haveIt developed later compared withotherwestern European countries, butSpain’s automotive Spanish regulatory landscape despite nolongerbeingintheEU. Britain includes theUK, border controls) that makeiteasierto aEuropean-wide infrastructure which preserve transport the EUsoasto access European swiftly, markets thefreedoms (suchas whilepreserving touch’‘light in particular, asfarpossibleto maintain common standards regulatory itwillbeimportant with strategic positionto dobusinessacross theworld. For andAV sector thetransport manufacturers will seekto address theconcerns that of businesswhileensuring theUKeconomy isinthebest to maintain constructive relations thenegotiation, thegovernment withitsEuropean In partners. There hasbeenmuchspeculation aboutaso-called ‘hard Brexit’, government buttheBritish willwant ofpotentialthe erection barriers. tariff apost-BrexitIn are manufacturers Britain, chiefly concerned aboutaccess and to thesinglemarket uncertainty, thegovernment wants to successful reassure businesseslocated intheUK. and support ‘in-tray’: theterms ofBritain’s from theEuropean departure aclimate Union(EU).In ofpolitical agendarelatesThe policy to newindustrial themostsignificant issueinthecurrent ministerial prime regions individually. oftheInterior, oftheMinistry rather thanbeing independentlyis part passedby theautonomous carshas beendrafted andpassedcentrallydriving by theSpanishDirectorate Generalof Traffic, which it comes to theregulations concerning autonomous to cars, tests ofself- thelegislation pertaining legislative power isgranteddegrees, invarying so-called ‘asymmetrical devolution’. However, when The competencies devolved greatly. to eachoftheautonomous communities vary Executive and financing oftheautonomous region. within that autonomous region, aswell astherelationship between thecentral government andthe autonomous regionrights setsoutthespecificanddutiesofcitizens andofthepoliticalinstitutions represents the central government in each autonomous region). The Statue of Autonomy ofeach in Spainwithadministrative, civil, andsocialchambers) theGovernment (which criminal Office thecentral ofjustice(which elects government), (thehighestjudicialinstitution court thesuperior autonomous regions. The Spanishgovernment executes itscompetencies through theparliament autonomous regions (17 in total), followed by the provinces, and municipalities of these districts, governance structure. There are five levels ofgovernance in Spain: theSpanishgovernment, the First, to understandSpain’s regime traffic itiscrucial policy totake into account the nation’s complicated that willneedto betakeninto account ifthisisto beachieved. regime that keepspace withtechnological change. There are several specific to the factors country That means that astherole ofautonomous drive develops, Spain willneedto develop apolicy to andbuiltupon. bepreserved is goingto continue to rebound itsrelative international strength, theautomotive willneed sector 27 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 18 Clearly iftheSpanisheconomy Clearly accessed: 09/11/2016). (last into-spain-1470613487 articles/car-makers-pour-money- Into Spain,http://www.wsj.com/ (2016): Car Pour Makers Money Mendez-Barrerira 18. Victor www.policy-network.net

policy network special report Spain’s ofresearch network centres important anduniversities focusing onvehicle • Spain’s to investment attract capacity andto create jobs; • Spain’s • Spain’s presence inhighlevel system intelligence projects; • Spain’s status asoneofthetop five countries withthelowest rate oftraffic-accident-related • autonomous vehicles. drive. This was evident when, in November 2015, it introduced legislation for the testing of fully The DGTiskeento offered ensure that Spaintakesadvantage oftheopportunities by autonomous even inlight ofthemostrecent round ofamendments oftheConvention. Convention, whoare to thetesting stillfacingbarriers andimplementation offullyautonomous cars assistancedriving andautonomous systems relative to countries that have ratified the Vienna allowing tests itto as2012. asearly conduct This ontesting gaveautomated Spainaheadstart in theory, the convention to does not pose the a introductionbarrier of driverless vehicles in Spain, to the Spainisasignatory Like theUK, Vienna Convention, buthasnotratified it. This meansthat, Legislationcars specific to self-driving 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. reducing oftraffic thesocioeconomicaccidents impact inthedecade from 2011 to2020: backed by that sixmainobjectives were elaborated to guidenational directives andhave theaimof inwhichallindividuals have network safetransport theirrespective responsibilities. This visionwas overarching visionfor thefuture oftransport. The visionstresses that allcitizens have arightto a In Strategy 2011-2020”, Security “Vital theSpanishDirectorate General of Traffic setsoutits The government’s visionfor transport describe Spain as the ideal country for self-driving cars, for citingasevidence: self-driving Spain astheidealcountry describe zero deaths, zero injured, xero congestion andzero emissions. information. The overarching theSpanishgovernment’s aimofthisdirective was to further aimof motorists, pedestrians, manufacturers, insurers, andtown halls/mayoral offices) willemitand receive for vital traffic information, where all individuals who are involved (DGT, in mobility drivers, cyclists, in someway (pedestrians, cyclists, ordrivers). This digital platform asareference would act point digital platform facilitating theexchange ofdata inreal timebetween allindividualsonthemove intelligent through mobility thedevelopment andsubsequent implementation ofDGT3.0,a of NovemberIn 2015,theGeneral Directory bringabout announced to its Trafficefforts (DGT) 28 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 Improve alcohol-linked behaviour driving Augment the safety ofwork-related trips; Enhance safety onconventional motorways; Increase motorists’ safety; Enable safe zones; withinurban mobility Protect themostvulnerable road users:children, youngsters, theelderly, pedestrians, andcyclists; automatisation andmobility deaths permillioninhabitants; strong car 21 In thepress In release theDGTwas at announcingthenewdraft painsto manufacturing industry 19

and its status 20 as the eighth 22 highest global exporter; 11/11/16). automatizada.pdf (lastaccessed 113-Vehiculos-Conduccion- normas/modificaciones/15.V- normativa-legislacion/otras- es/Galerias/seguridad-vial/ DGT website http://www.dgt. (2015): INSTRUCCIÓN 15/V-113, 22. Dirección Generalde Tráfico INSTRUCCIÓN 15/V-113, 2015 oftheInterior,21. Minister 09/11/2016). Inteligente.pdf (lastaccessed: informativo-DGT-3.0-Movilidad- prensa/2015/11/NP-Folleto- http://www.dgt.es/Galerias/ una movilidad inteligente, Tráfico (2015):DGT3.0:Hacia 20. Dirección Generalde (last accessed: 09/11/2016). doc/estrategico_2020_003.pdf viales/estrategicos-2011-2020/ Galerias/seguridad-vial/politicas- Ejecutivo, http://www.dgt.es/ Vial 2011-2020:Resumen (2011): Estrategia deSeguridad 19. Dirección Generalde Tráfico www.policy-network.net

policy network special report Autonomous vehicle testing inSpain autonomous vehicles by thegeneral public. exists. For thisreason, there remains areal needto develop legislation guidingtheoperation of cars, at present noconcrete legislation relating operation ofautonomous to vehicles thelarge-scale inencouraging research important Although thischangeinlegislation very into isclearly self-driving frompermission thetests anyauthorising inquestion. otherEUauthority provisiontechnical accredited service by ENAC, theNational Accreditation Body, orthat theypossess insurance (andaccept for civil liability any damagecaused),andthat thecarinquestionpassesa traffic. Theonly requirements were thatdriver the holdsadriver’s valid licence, that they have This instrument tests involving carsonroads authorised ortrials opento thegeneral self-driving conditions Wahlstroem, manager, theproject as it was completed alongside regular road drivers and in windy near Barcelona,motorway Spain. This was considered successful endeavour a very by Linda in May 2012, project Volvo’s ‘platoon’ ona public journey cars completed a 200km ofself-driving to involving projects autonomous vehicles –includinginSpain.For oftheSARTRE example, aspart build ontheEU’s potential to becoming theworld’s leadingresearch area of theunion’s underthe economy; ‘Seventh Framework Programme’ (FP7),developed inorder to advantage inautonomous R&D. To to promote aidthis ithasutilisedEUefforts the competiveness advantage oftheliberalSpain hasbeenproactive regime intaking ontesting to mover gainearly Branch for ofMobility. theManagement requirements, carscanoperate freely inSpanishroads insofarastheygetapproval from theGeneral 29 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 has been a dialogue in Spain between the industry andthepublic theindustry inSpainbetween adialogue has been administrations (atthestate level, inCatalonia’s case, and local in therest ofBarcelona), whichexplainswhy AV’s commercial 26 “In theambitionto develop autonomous vehicles, there . introduction iseasierinSpain.”introduction - Industry leader,- Industry Spain 24 23 25 If theysatisfy theabove If , fundingwas allocated accessed 11/11/16). news/technology-18248841 (last motorway, http://www.bbc.co.uk/ drive ‘convoy’ hitstheSpanish 26. BBC(2012): Volvo’s self- pdf (lastaccessed 11/11/16). documentlibrary/90798681EN6. cordis.europa.eu/documents/ (2007-2013),http:// activities development anddemonstration for research, technological of theEuropean Community Seventh Framework Programme of thecouncil concerning the the European parliament and No1982/2006/ECof Decision 25. European commission (2006): 11/11/16). automatizada.pdf (lastaccessed 113-Vehiculos-Conduccion- normas/modificaciones/15.V- normativa-legislacion/otras- es/Galerias/seguridad-vial/ 15/V-113, http://www.dgt. Tráfico (2015):INSTRUCCIÓN 24. Dirección Generalde 11/11/16). circulacion.shtml(last accessed automatizada-vias-abiertas- pruebas-vehiculos-conduccion- establece-marco-realizacion- prensa/2015/20151116-trafico- dgt.es/es/prensa/notas-de- 16 November, http://www. Tráfico (2015):Notade Prensa, 23. Dirección Generalde Picture credit: Prokopyuk Mariya www.policy-network.net

policy network special report for anaccelerated proliferation ofsafe automated high-degree andconnected inEurope. driving such asSCOUT (Safe andCOnnected aUtomation inroad Transport), whichaimsto identify pathways has been vital, notheldinSpain,butwhereenabled thefruitionofprojects Spanishparticipation received Eachproject safety inspection. €50,000infundingfrom EU. Horizon 2020fundinghasalso and SV2,alsoledby aSpanishSME, taskedwithimplementing amachinevisionsystem for road as e-Awake, ledby anSMEaimedat creating anAdvanced Assistance Driving Systems (ADAS), Catalonia: aleaderinthefieldofautomated vehicle technology over two years. a dedicated stream for automated amounting toroad a budget €6 339m, to transport, be distributed funding platform under Europe’s Horizon 2020 framework. Within theHorizon 2020 scheme, there is terms of funding forIn upcoming projects, Spain has benefitted from the announcement of a new from atrip oneofthegroup’smaking to another. factory experiment was byconducted Citroen; it successfully spanned over of the 599km route,Vigo-Madrid approving thetesting autonomous vehicles 15/V-113) (Instrument entered into force, adriverless bybeen conducted themselves. carmanufacturers November In 2015,afew weeks theregulation additionto completed projects In thankstohave otherprojects fundingundertheFP7framework, in 2013. on the Catalan its economy.impact 150companies Over are presently linked to theCIAC, which began activities. The mainaimofthiscluster isto reinforce thecompetitiveness and oftheautomotive industry open to all companies operating that pursueresearch in the automotive and industry development The Catalan automotive cluster (CIAC) isanexample ofaprivately fundednot-for-profit cluster that is foreign investment inCatalonia. 2015, itattracted €96.0mofinvestment for alone, theautomobile sector or18.9percent ofthetotal ACCIO responsible isthegovernmental for agency foreign attracting investment to Catalonia. In technology, andtheregional agenciesare for ableto provide thetechnology. support development cluster becomes aninfluential forum inshapingthediscussion around autonomous as theleadingregion for autonomous vehicle technology, asitsstrong automobile research and clusters that favourindustry research anddevelopment alliances. particular, In Catalonia isemerging advantage of regional of bythe possibility taking investments and building on the already existing Spanish regionsCertain are aiming to become leaders in the field of autonomous vehicle technology 30 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 administrations thedevelopment (government ofCatalonia) support infrastructure industries. Notwithstanding, thestate administrations automotive industry (whichprovidesautomotive thetesting andhomologation industry (Centre ofIndustrialTechnology) fortheDevelopment andregional “The initiative comes from theprivate“The side, from especially the centres) butalsofrom thetelecommunications andtransport of this sector insofar as it is serves thepublicinterest.” insofarof thissector asitisserves 27 This fundinghasenabledtheimplementation ofseveral inSpainsuch projects - Industry leader,- Industry Spain 28 accessed 11/11/16). rcn/204978_en.html, (last http://cordis.europa.eu/project/ aUtomation inroad Transport, (2014): Safe andCOnnected Development Information Service Community Research and 28. European commission accessed 11/11/16). rcn/664357_en.html, (last cordis.europa.eu/programme/ And Integrated Transport, http:// Green CHALLENGES -Smart, (2014): H2020-EU.3.4. - SOCIETAL Development Information Service Community Research and 27. European commission www.policy-network.net

policy network special report autonomous vehicle technology context. inanurban CISCO)firm and technology thatconnected would facilitateto pioneersmart theintroduction of Barcelona hasastrong track record for cooperating (suchasthetechnology withprivate partners The effects of this political instability onthefuture instability The ofautonomouspolitical ofthis effects policy vehicle investments andcreating novel businessopportunities. allow for thecreation of the infrastructure neededto advance and test automated vehicles, attracting greater for governmental thedeployment support ofAV technology. of the commercialisationcould align of autonomous with the support vehicles, whichmight mean transport. The quest toand increase enhance the accessibility the safety of transport of transport and mobility, transport on urban and on interconnected forms rather of than compartmentalised ‘Podemos’ Psoe andtheliberal Ciudadanos place anemphasisonpublictransport. especially focuses creation safety. for populist ofanewstate authority transport alongsidethe leftwing parties, Both safety, whilethemanifesto Rajoy’s Minister ofrime the Popular conservative (PP)supports Party terms ofsafety, thePsoe manifesto investments prioritises linkedto theimprovement oftransport have cars. In thedeployment policiesthatAll could ofself-driving themajorparties impact similarly towards carsemerges.a detailedpolicy self-driving stable government that is able to pursueat least a medium-term agenda will determine how quickly development anddeployment ofautonomous vehicles inSpain.Consequently, theformation ofa andlong-term upontheshort- andinnovation sector impact policieswillindirectly the transport political parties’ manifestos. policies, this, especiallypoliciesaffecting Notwithstanding certain AsAV technology isstillrelatively new, itisnotatopic that isexplicitly touched uponinany ofthe areas.in many otherpolicy towards future legislation concerning thecommercialised spread ofautonomous vehicles, asithas the impasse, itremains hasslowed undoubtedly truethat ayear momentum ofpoliticaluncertainty able to assemble a majority.no party Although (Psoe) the leadership change in the Socialists broke appointed. had continued Rajoy in acaretaker whileparliamentremained capacity indeadlockwith toRajoy gain sufficient votes tobe invested for a second inoffice term has anew been government (following of its leader Pedro the ejection to Sanchez) abstain and thereby allow Prime Manuel Minister party’sthe December 2015andJune2016general OnlywiththeSocialist elections. recent decision Spain hadbeenwithoutapermanentgovernment for 10months, ever since theinconclusive result of with leadingcapabilitiesfor commercial testing safety ofactive systems automatedurban driving. For example, Applus IDIADA Euro laboratory hasastate NCAP oftheart automatedurban initiatives, driving butto establishBarcelona asoneofthetop European citiesfor URBIS, CELLNEX,Applus IDIADA, RACC seeksnotonlyto generate andUPC.It discussionaround centring on thedevelopment automated of urban is led by driving. the Ajuntament It de Barcelona, The Barcelona Board Cooperative andAutomated isanotherpublic-private Driving partnership andautomatedthe development onvehicle ofknowledge connectivity driving. different stakeholdersand to create aplatform for thedevelopment of AV technology, thusspurring Cellnex, Ficosa, Seat, andApplus Saba, IDIADA). The overarching aimofthisforum isto coordinate andautomation Ajuntament ofvehiclesAbertis, deBarcelona,in theconnectivity (Nissan, Carnet, and Mobile World Capital Barcelona. This from forum different includesparticipants involved sectors that isledby theCatalonian Cluster, Automatedpartnership Industry thegovernment ofCatalonia, ForumThe Industrial for theConnected Vehicle andAutomated (IFCVAD) Driving isapublic–private discussion around thepresent andfuture ofautonomous inSpain. driving additionto this,In there are several otherinfluential forums basedin Catalonia that aim to shapethe 31 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 30 The cooperation ofthesekeyplayers will 29 , whiletheAjuntament de

accessed 11/11/16) to-pioneer-iot-smart-city/(last barcelona-partners-with-cisco- https://internetofbusiness.com/ to pioneerIoT city, smart withCiscoBarcelona partners ofBusiness(2016): 30. Internet (last accessed 11/11/16). Proving_ground-1328274726564 applusidiada.com/en/activity/ Proving ground, http://www. 29. Applus IDIADA (2013): www.policy-network.net

policy network special report needs to beaddressed notfardown theline. legislationvehicle covering testing can beundertaken, thecommercialised spread ofAV technology figures have that although Spainiscurrently acknowledged afavourable place inwhichautomated concretepropose legislation further to shape the future of autonomous in Spain. Industry driving and shapethedebate, itisultimately thecentral government, through theDGT, whichwillneedto More generally, althoughtheregions andtheirclusters andresearch alliances candomuchto try The needfor national leadership priorities. ofsocialexclusion mightrisk meanthat autonomous vehicles orpoverty) are lower ontheirlistof strong (withspecialornotariffs andaccessible focusfor those publictransport onrailat transport ofnewinfrastructure to bedevelopedadaptability to theneedsofautonomous vehicles. Podemos’s existing infrastructures could aheadofnewinfrastructure projects have implications for the implementation ofautonomous vehicles. Psoe’s focus investment onprioritising into maintaining Yet views inalltheparties’ somepolicy manifestos could equallycompete withordelay the for leadtoindirectly targeted theautomated support vehicle industry. the Horizon 2020programme (which hasaspecificcall for autonomous cars). These points could Innovation’ to stimulate public-private research collaboration, in and an increased participation autonomous vehicles. Additionally, Psoe alsoproposes thecreation ofa ‘Council for Scienceand vehicle technology, cementing Spain’s positionasaleadingresearch anddevelopment location for thedevelopment for andimplementation clusters ofautonomousincoming supporting support practices, innovation, spark andimprove overall productivity.” This stance could spellstrong between industry, govern-ment, research centres anduniversities mustbeusedto best extend clusters inreversing thedeindustrialisationprocess: “clusters’ role asinstruments ofcooperation automotive sector. As Podemos thepivotal states role inits2016manifesto, of supports theparty will pay special attention to that hold the biggest innovativethe sectors potential, includingthe to reachseeking the EU goal of a total investment of three per cent of GDP. The PP states that they With regards to investments inresearch anddevelopment, seekto increase allthree spending, parties self-driving technology.self-driving deadlock could onSpain’s positively impact positionasone oftheEuropean countries leadingin inparticular. sector ingeneral andintheself-driving sector The seemingresolution ofthepolitical it could have thepotential to erode therate offoreign andnational investment intheautomobile was to engender aprolonged delayif politicaluncertainty inthedevelopment ofsuchlegislation, addition,althoughSpaincurrentlyIn hasestablishedaset ofleadingautomated clusters, driving 32 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 ranging from level 3to level 5 autonomy. though theDGT And could instantly give adirective forAV circulation outsideoftesting, the “At themoment,DGT allows testing forautomated vehicles driving code needsto adapted” be Automotive cluster manager, Spain. www.policy-network.net

policy network special report to aphysical “unmanned vehicle” identifier orsimilar. to disable theautonomous mode, carsthanks andthepotential ofidentifying self-driving desirability to suggestionsstemminghave from itmandatory thisroundtableOther theability includedmaking a crash orfailure. Code,the Criminal andtheCivil Code, stems from oftheautonomous system theliability incaseof movements. The needto amendthelegislation, includingtheAdministrative code, the Traffic Rules, recorders that shouldbeinstalledinunmannedvehicles soasto track theautonomous vehicles’ the ‘driver drone’ (autonomous mode).Blackbox requirements refer to thedata, video, andaudio need for box’‘black requirements to and the necessity amend the legislation to cover of theliability systems inRussia. unmanned transport The two mainpointsfrom arising thisroundtable were the The State held a roundtable Duma in March 2016 to discuss the legal issues surrounding the use of developed for fullyautonomous vehicles as opposedto vehicles withsomeautonomous features. automobile industry in the wake of the 2010 economic downturn.automobile industry was developed development”) withaspecialfocusautomobile onrevitalising industry the The Russiangovernment’s development plan(“Strategic automobile industry planoftheRussian output decreasing by 58percent. nearly has contracted significantly, between 2013and2015, fallingfromto 12thinthe sixth world ranking Germany. However, troubled by anongoingrecession andeconomic slowdown, Russia’s carindustry ofvehicleto sales, numbersixintheglobalranking behindonlyChina,theUSA,Japan,Brazil and decade. Following bounced back to move theRussian the2008financialcrisis vehicle industry up hasbeen through sector over turbulences andtriumphs The Russiancarmanufacturing thepast Excursus: thefuture ofdrivinginRussia engineers (whose salary isonaverageengineers inEurope 1/4to (whosesalary 1/3that oftheircounterparts andintheUS). centres, andenableglobalinvestors andcompanies to takeadvantage ofRussia’s poolof talented Russia outoftheovercapacity slumpitiscurrently experiencing, generate more research anddevelop indevelopingand domesticfirms innovative vehicles. of research anddevelopment funding, regional cluster initiatives, between global andpartnerships conditions and ensure stabilisation. market industry The strategic planhighlighted theimportance third andfinalphaseisplannedfrom 2015-20,andaims to bothdevelop competitive automotive recovery oftheindustry, aswell asonforming thefoundations for innovative development. The the economic crisis. The second phase spanned from 2011 to 2014 and focused on the post-crisis in three consecutive phases. The first, initiated in2010,aimed to overcome the consequences of require orinput. humanintervention drones orunmannedvehicles, alludingto ahigh(SAElevel 4/5)level ofautomation that would not orautomated Russian mediaanddiscussions, vehiclesIn self-driving are commonly referred to as Regulation concerning autonomous vehicles 33 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 34 This explains why wemostoftheregulation canexpect to be 31 These initiatives have thevitalpotential to lift 32 It is designed to be implemented It 33

11/11/16) gruzovik-609, (lastaccessed kamaz-zapustil-bespilotnyy- bolshefaktov.ru/avto/ http:// an unmannedtruck, haslaunched ru (2015):KamAZ 34. For example, seeBolshefaktov. (lastaccessed 11/11/16) industry/, priorities-build-russia-auto- automotive-globalization-two- com/content/articles/ https://www.bcgperspectives. andInnovation, Exports Industry: Priorities to BuildupRussia’s Auto 33. BCG Perspectives (2016): Two 11/11/16) auto_2020.pdf, (lastaccessed docs/55a6238a3a686Strategy_ prognozirovanie_otrasli_ http://nami.ru/uploads/docs/ development, p.industry 1-2, of theRussianautomobile (2013):Strategic plan Ministry and 32. RussianIndustry Trade accessed: 27/10/2016). (last build-russia-auto-industry/ globalization-two-priorities- content/articles/automotive- www.bcgperspectives.com/ Smilkstins(2016):https:// Arturs Lang, Onstantin Polunin and 31. Vladislav Boutenko, Nikolaus www.policy-network.net

policy network special report Russianbus company • Yandex, Google’s competitor withKamaz. inRussia,announced aseparate partnership • whoseshareholders isaRussiantruckmanufacturer includetheRussiangovernment, Kamaz • German governmentGerman encourages the salience of national clusters industrial and champions ina which theyexcel, includingbusinessdevelopment, research and law andinsurance services. The government which cantakethelead inareas pocket industries in has identified and supported manufacturers, research clusters andbusiness landscapebutalsopoliticalculture. theUK In extent, individualnational patterns andcultural ofdomestic circumstances –boththeparticular behindAVThe second keypoint isthatpolicy theindustrial technology reflects, to a considerable hand information over to therequired authorities. record whetherpersonormachinewere behindthewheelat thetimeofacrash and, as necessary require highly automated and autonomous vehicles to install a data recorder. This box”“black would AV onEurope’s roads. legislators German might leadtheway iftheypasslegislation in2017that will onboard.safety citizens onsecurity donotfeel If of safe withtechnology itwilldelay thetake-up of anaccident involving anAD. inthisprocess Akeyobjective publicconcerns around isto tackle will beto findanswers to thequestionofwhois responsible andwhopays for thedamageincase For step into thenext anddriverless aconnected future to betakenthechallengefor policymakers introduced legislative considerable changewillbeneeded. andregulatory further and takeresponsibility for thesafe operation ofthe vehicle. For full ‘driverless’ autonomy to be use. This meansthat inany vehicle regardless ofitslevel ofautomatisation adriver hasto bepresent on bothtest sites and publicroads, buthave notyet resolved theissueoffullautonomy for public examined have laidthefoundations for thetesting ofhighly automated andautonomous vehicles There are three keymessagesemerging from thischapter. The firstisthat all four ofthe countries Conclusion: inneedfor more reforms andharmonisation NAMI • Key players andpartnerships 34 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 the city’s governor, thisvision. hassupported throughcapable ofdriving routes, openurban intimefor the2018 World Cup. Andrei Bocharov, exhibition centres, andhotels. From 2017to 2018, Volgabus aims to have anautonomous bus theendof2016,ithopestoBy deploy asix-metre buscapableofnavigating closedcampuses, testing inearly2017. not many detailshave beenreleased, NAMI hassignalledto thatbegin itexpects accommodate amaximumof12passengersonsinglecharge range of200kilometres. Although revolvesThis partnership around thedevelopment ofadriverless minibusshuttlethat would conditions, includingscenarios are where present. noroad markings thatprojects test on optimalroad conditions, aims to their project test in difficult andharsh road $1.5m. OlegSavin, manager, theproject highlighted that asopposedto otherinternational ofEducation andSciencewillprovide willprovide $5mandKamaz theremaining Russian Ministry requiring $6.5mininvestment, reportedly company, a project ofwhichthe isundertaking Kamaz Daimler, association withCognitive andNAMI. In development pilot, aRussiansoftware simultaneously enhance vehicle safety andimprove passenger’s comfort. warnsthedriverand marking, ifitleaves lane, thedriving andmore. doingso, In NAMI aimsto and implementation ofautonomous cars. NAMI develops that recognises software road signs is a government-backed Volgabus to develop unmannedbus hasalsobeen working anelectric, automotive research facility currently looking at the development www.policy-network.net

policy network special report centralnewly elected government. intheAVleadership andgathered expertise debate that willbecentral ofthe to influencingpolicy testing ofAV technology. And in Spain,someregions, suchasCatalonia, have developed thought that seekstotraditionally setinternational strong standards carindustry inthedevelopment and vehicles that willneedto bedefined. level itismainlyadmissionrightsanddevelopment standards for highlyautomated andautonomous issues,liability includingthedevelopment ofnewinsurance schemes. Whereas, onaninternational researchOur showed that national legislation beconcerned willprimarily withtraffic rulesand The ‘division oflabour’ between thenational andinternational level is, thankfully, reasonably clear. international coordination willallow fulladoptionofAD. regardlesspolicymakers, ofcountry, that whatever initiatives were takenonthenational level only of international was andnational arecurring legislation.themethroughout It ourconversations with Third, it is clear from our analysis that arguably is the harmonisation the biggest task for policymakers introduction ofADacross thecontinent. and show ensure thedigital infrastructure isupdated; onlythenwillEurope achieve aseamless new regulations mustalsoguarantee alevel playing field for manufacturers, promote competition orderIn to fullytakeadvantage ofalltheeconomic potential andautonomous ofconnected vehicles automated assistance driving across theEuropean singlemarket. The development ofsuchruleswould allow theadmissionanddevelopment ofvehicles with capacities oftheeconomy theywon’t ableto theocean. be boil Instead 35 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 “In the UK policymakers are“In theUKpolicymakers aware thatwithlimited manufacturing “Adjustment oflegislationhasto take place oninternational level – the government ondeveloping willfocus astrategy thatbringsthe strengths oftheBritisheconomy to theforefront” we are always worse offwithnationalsolutions” Senior policymaker,Senior Germany. Industry expert, UK. expert, Industry www.policy-network.net

policy network special report autonomous drive andtheconsequent economic impact. manifest themselves willbethekeyto determining the speedandpenetration ofthetakeup How the demands and wishes of these three different groups howcome they to mesh and exactly for economic innovation. strategies to choosebetween theneedto balance consumer interests, thepublicgoodandneed feel andsecure comfortable with. haveWhereas policymakers asubstantial range ofalternative by publicpolicy. Consumers that chooseproducts theybelieve bestfittheirneedsandwhichthey satisfy consumer preference and, thereby, maximisesalesbutallthetimeare necessarily guided with different, but interlocking, perspectives. Car aim to manufacturers technology best harness to three originate sources from –each consumers, ofuncertainty andpolicymakers carmanufacturers The benefitsofautonomous butthey vehicles willbeenormous remain to adegree uncertain. The the UKorthat utilisedinhistorical growth studiesfor thecomparable industry. airline andevenconservative somewhat lower thanthat usedfor two independent forecasts for theUSand growthThis may israther theproductivity seemalarge scenario sumbutinfact usedthisreport vehicles willhave contributed atotal of€17tnto GDP. cumulatively, be5.3percent larger intheyear 2050thancurrently, by whichtimeautonomous growth rate inthedecadesto come. As aresult, theEuropean (EU-28)gross will, domesticproduct showsThis adding0.15percent how report autonomous Europe’s vehicles willstart annual indeed. significant of afundamental changeeffects inthenature will be to productivity ofmobility very we othersector that canpredict theknock-on isanessential inputto almostevery transportation that accounts by itselffor –letalonethegreater 15percent ofeconomic activity economy. Since – that isto say ‘driverless’ thiswillhave –clearly substantial ramifications sector for thetransportation to theEconomist. by ofvehicles theyear If onEuropean 2050,themajority roads are fullyautomated asmuch$10tnayear isvastglobally,The –worth for existing market personal transport according who currently holdadriver’s licence. as carautomation willaffecttheeveryday life in Europe ofeveryone, everywhere –notjustthose that oraeroplanes comparison may inthe20th.Indeed well19th century prove anunderstatement a transformation bitasfundamental asthat brought by every theadvent forth oftherailways inthe isfairto say thatIt over three thenext decadesautomated vehicles willalter ourlives permanently; impacted. economy asawhole. The ofeconomic effectswillbe lifefelt farbeyond mostobviously thoseparts experience orthenature ofthevehicle industry, itwillalsohave profound consequences for the The coming autonomous drive revolution onindividual’s isnotjustgoingto impact driving Economics: ADcount making for everyone 36 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 35 pdf). ATAG_SocialBenefitsAirTransport. Documents/JointWorkshop2005/ icao.int/Meetings/wrdss2011/ (http://www.of airtransport economic &socialbenefits per cent. ATAG See (2005): The bydomestic product eight hasincreased grossindustry comparison, theairline ). By Opportu...1.pdf %E2%80%93-The-UK-Economic- and-Autonomous-Vehicles- sites/2/CRT036586F-Connected- co.uk/wp-content/uploads/ (https://www.smmt. Opportunity Vehicles – The UKEconomic Connected andAutonomous andKPMG (2015): PARADIGM.pdf) THE-NEW-AUTO-INDUSTRY- CARS%EF%BC%9A-SELF-DRIVING- BLUE-PAPER-AUTONOMOUS- Nov2013MORGAN-STANLEY- SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/ orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/ ParadigmIndustry (http:// theNewAutoCars Self-Driving Stanley (2013):Autonomous than thestudiesby Morgan methodology andresults inassumptions,conservative studyismore35.Our www.policy-network.net

policy network special report 95 percent. autonomous, whichadaptation slows after towards 2050by which pointsaturation market reaches more than250mcarsintheEU–by 2038,80percent ofthevehicles onEurope’s roads willbefully 18 years –that over istheperiod takesto whichittypically ‘naturally’ replace thevehicle stock of phones. Onthebasisofa technology suchassmart ‘turnover’ timeinEurope for private carsof ‘rapid’ adaptation willbesimilarto thepattern ofuptakeseenwithotherground-breaking innovative technology iscentral. potential ofautomated ofADassessing theproductivity at theeconomic impact vehicle looking In productivity? How willADimpact assume that substantially by increasing. 2022autonomous vehicle saleswillstart subsequent adaptation market to AD. However, itisreasonable to according experts to industry There aboutthefuture speedofintroduction into remains and themarket someuncertainty not allpossibleadvantages immediately accessible. with them–astep-by-step automation move isthecurrent to trend partial whichresults insomebut passenger cars. For private cars–driven by understandablykeento consumers manufacturers bring assume thatadoptioninthesesegments market proceeds at aninitiallyhigherpace thanfor private the consequent profits canthereby justifylarge investments. up-front It istherefore reasonable to theoperationalthese industries hoursofthevehicles are muchhighercompared to private carsand vehicle technology over therecent years, withthefirst vehicles currently inthefinal testphase. In andtaxiindustries, where therecargo-transportation have beensubstantial advances inautonomous introduced andadopted. mostmediaattention Hitherto, hasfocused ontheprogress ofADinthe There is, naturally, aboutthespeedwithwhichautonomous vehicles willbeboth someuncertainty The pace ofADadoption determine whichcosts andbenefitstranslate to society. The progress ofautonomous vehicle decisionsare development takenwill andwhichpolicy regulation sector. for inthetransport thelabourmarket Policy aimsto by promote subsidisingcurrent incumbents status andstringent quointheindustry 3) of autonomous vehicle benefitsare permitted butnotaided. scepticism isovercome, butslowly. to failures onlyreacts Public market meaningtheaccrual policy 2) modelsthatmarket satisfy emerging publicappetite. actively. Consumers rapidly feel are with AD and manufacturers comfortable able to deliver mass pro- infrastructure aswell asengagesspatial opportunities andlabourmarket supplies necessary withforesightbenevolent policy that aimsat maximisingbenefits. offersPublic sector R&Dsupport, 1) ways inwhichthecommercial, variablesover consumer autonomous andpolicy drive could play out: For ofoureconomic thepurpose analysis we have categorised into specificscenarios three possible Three scenarios 37 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 REACTIVE: Autonomous vehicle technology development isdelayed by unforeseen developments. PROACTIVE: thisscenario autonomous vehicles In introduced are swiftly andaccompanied by GRADUAL: Autonomous vehicles are introduced consumer at pace forecast by theindustry; 36 This phaseof com/?page_id=384 . http://www.driverless-future. watchcar market forecast, DCMW (2016).Driverless Economic Opportunity. Autonomous Vehicles – The UK KPMG (2015):Connected and . five-or-six-years-1410990887 fully-autonomous-car-ready-in- wsj.com/articles/tesla-ceo-sees- in five orsix years, http://www. sees fullyautonomous carready (2014): Journal Tesla CEOMusk available onDCMW. Wall Street forecastsaverage oftheindustry (KPMG). We baseourmodel on an ofcarssalesupto 2025 majority conditional automation to bethe others forecast vehicles with inthe Musk Wall Street Journal, by 2019,such asElon to start fullyautomatedexpect carsales Whereas someintheindustry the extent ofautomatisation. vehicle salesislessdebated then rate oflarge scaleautonomous 36. The beginning anduptake www.policy-network.net

policy network special report Traffic jamsandrushhour road congestion are the commonenemy of commutersurban in areas. Road congestion consumer. time benefitsthat donottranslate gainsare into automatically productivity welfare gains to the that trips canbeusedpurposefully.drivers allnon-commuting during Furthermore, allin-vehicle Sucharguments,to work. whiletrue, alsoshouldconsider thepotential additionalbenefits to and to many isleisure ofdriving andhence drivers whenremoved theact transferable notdirectly The reader critical might argue that in-vehicle depends ontheautomated productivity vehicle itself Europe’s €16.2tnGDPin2016. value above, themaximum potential timegainsby drivers would beequivalent to three percent of the automated vehicle instead ofdriving. Given thetimespentcurrently indriving andthemonetary When itcomes to ADthisisbasedontheassumptionthat thedriver hastheoptionto work inside value to timethat isequivalent tomonetary themedianwage. road congestion addsanother10minutes. Among economists itiscommon to practice attribute a of which41bnhourscanbeattributed to drivers whocommute for anaverage 30minutes perday, ground-based journeys. Annually, EUcitizen collectively spendaround 100bnhoursinsidevehicles acrossThe theEuropean caristhedominant modeoftransport Unionusedfor 80percent of Value ofin-vehicle time below. will have large ramifications are listedto productivity in Table 3andare explained inmore detail For implications thesupplysideismore productivity relevant. Seven ofthesupplysideeffectsthat overall that are productivity shared asawhole. by society of autonomous vehicle useto theconsumer, whereas supplysidebenefitsare benefits indirect to improve efficient useof roadinfrastructure. Demandside aremostly effects consequences direct the travel cost from reduction autonomous vehicle will increase demand for travel more than it will On theroad thedemand-sideeffectsare likely Inotherto outweigh thesupply-side effect. words, Table 3:Autonomous vehicle supply-side ontheeconomy effects literature. that takesinto account demandandsupplysideeffectsthat are well documented inthescientific To forecast benefitsup to the theproductivity year 2050, we have usedanopen-economy model 38 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 Labour market Build environment infrastructure Road Fuel-efficiency accidentsRoad congestionRoad Value ofin-vehicle time Effect Labour supply structure, density Urban city - Environment, publichealth,travel cost travelExpected cost Travel cost, commuting distance Travel cost, laboursupply Market mechanism 37 1% -5% 2% -4% - 0.5% 2% 0.5% -1% 2% -3% impact Productivity Maximum conservative. by 2050whichisarguably rather time are limited to 1.8per cent gainsfrom in-vehicleproductivity ourmodel,37. In themaximum www.policy-network.net

policy network special report consumption hasfor theenvironment andhumanhealth.Studies argued isoften that currentIt fueltaxes to already mitigate act thenegative repercussions fuel this studywe onlyconsider benefitsfrom thedirect autonomous vehicles. associated withautonomous vehicles, suchasalternative fuelsources. Therefore, for of thepurposes trains’ onhighways inorder to reduce airresistance –from technological advances that are indirectly infrastructure, liketraffic lights orthedrivinginclose of proximityenvisioned possibility in ‘road autonomous technology itself–suchasbetter power management orcommunication withroad First, gainsthat itiscrucialto associatedare directly distinguishbetween thoseefficiency withthe currently, necessarily, speculative. demand. ofallenergy The energy inEurope consumption ofroad isequivalent transport to one-quarter Fuel-efficiency a gaininproductivity. substantially reduced producing, indeath reduction aswell andinjury, asthemuchmore important is already safer than human drivers. Hence, itisnottoo that optimisticto accidents expect canbe by two percent annually. There isevidence that even thefirstgeneration ofautomated vehicles that the it isnotsurprising World HealthOrganisation believes that accidents reduce anation’s GDP caused by humans. Statistically, eachofusisinvolved inaroad 20years. accident every Therefore, accidentsRoad are ormaterial loss, afrequent over causeofdeath, injury 90percent ofthemare Road accidents one percent ofGDPislostdueto road congestion annuallyinterms offuelandin-vehicle time. areas.most denseurban The European commission and independent studiesestimate that at least space. Excess cartravel hasahighcost andadditionalroad to society infrastructure isnotfeasible in congestionRoad isaresult ofcartravel demandexceeding thesupplyofinfrastructure, ieroad necessary mandatory renewal ofroad mandatory infrastructure that takesplacenecessary over a20-to 25-year and cycle autonomous vehiclesAlthough into itiscrucialto factor isunknown. any suchcalculation the For now, thecost ofadaptingroad infrastructure to accommodate andcity alarger numberof Investments inroad infrastructure for themanufacturers. producers, although the questionof how efficiently would vehicles remain one consume electricity whichcasetheenvironmentalIn discussionwould move away to energy from thecarindustry to therollout ofpredominantlybroadly similartrajectory oreven powered entirely electric vehicles. However, itiswidely perceived that thepredicted rollout ofautonomous vehicles isat leaston land andlossesfrom anincrease andstrength infrequency ofextreme weather. discountingand stark to takeaccount future climate changeevents, inarable suchasthereduction This may low percentage, seemasurprisingly butisaconsequence ofthelow price ofCO2 emissions and healthby theequivalent of0.5percent ofGDP. per cent. Suchanincrease would inefficiency reduce thenegative repercussions tothe environment to be petrol or diesel powered – autonomous vehicles of cars can increase by up to 30 fuel efficiency 39 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 The efficiency gains Thefrom autonomous efficiency vehicles, which would allow this rate to reduce, are 38 show that –even ifADcontinued mobility services. mobility automated ofelectric opportunity Peak carownership – The market C. JohnsonandJ. Walker (2016): Technologies, 40,pp. 1-13. Research Part C:Emerging scenarios. Transportation using agent-based model shared autonomous vehicles, environmental implications of M.(2014): K. The travel and Fagnant, D. J., &Kockelman, Practice, 77,pp. 167-181. Research Part A:Policy and recommendations. Transportation andpolicy barriers opportunities, for autonomous vehicles: (2015):PreparingK. anation Fagnant, D. J., &Kockelman, Walker. cent, similarto Johnsonand fuel savings between 23-39per Fagnant andKockelmanforecast 38. Agent basedmodelsby www.policy-network.net

policy network special report ‘mechanical’ taskssuchasopening train doorsto more customer focused roles suchassellingtickets). in productivity. withtheredeployment ofguards (As from traditional hashappenedintherail industry: through improvement orrevenue ofon-board withasubsequent safety increase andservice collection in an autonomous drive future be redeployed to provide to passenger, additional utility for example Similarly, workers currently deployed could asdrivers ofpublictransport conditions. healthier under larger quantities of cargo could transport overtransporter longerdistance withincreased safety and wage increases. For example, itiseasy to imagine that personnelonboard anautomated cargo jobs healthierandmore ofconsequent leadingto productive thepossibility –withproductivity For autonomous vehicles intransportation, offer thoseworking achance to makesome existing are forecast,especially where labourshortages willresult inapositive overall. economic impact for thosethat remain andtherelease inthesector oflabourfor productive useinothersectors, will prove disruptive for many of these workers. is clear though that it can also provide It benefits currently employed inroad transportation. There is no escapingthe reality that theadoptionof AD busand taxi driversCombining aboutfive truck, per cent of the EU-28labour force (Eurostat) is to employment someofthepopularperception fears. the pressure of technological change into positive results rather in the labour market than the threat Autonomous asalitmustest vehicles to theextentgovernments willserve canadequately transform astrongEnsuring level offulfillingemployment isintegral to creating society. aharmonious marketLabour in productivity. ismoved on-street outsideofcitieswitha parking consequent mirroredwhen superfluous uptake cent. ofautonomous Because vehicles, area upto three becomes available percent surface ofurban to theadditionalspace, where a onepercent by increase increases oneper indensity productivity thatdenser labourmarket fosters productivity. gainisbelieved This to productivity beproportional more residential and commercial space allows alarger concentration anda ofeconomic activity oneffectsthat result from istheknock thesechangeswhichincreaseIt productivity. For example, perse,constitute surplus butrather aproductivity shouldberegarded asawelfare gain. gardens. Consumer benefitfrom space for alarger houseoradditionalgarden space doesnot affectingthe wellbeing ofcitizens,– partly for example through greater release ofspace for private benefitsare areas manifolddense urban €3,000.Density oftheNetherlands andnotjusteconomic potential mechanisms. However, that theannualcost space itisknown ofanemployee in parking is complicated onproductivity The effectofdensity to estimate as we need to identify various this ismore ofanissuefor the80percent ofEUcitizens world. livinginanurban cities wherecase in dense urban space has a much higher value than in rural areas. in that sense So changes patterns ofcarownership andreduces theneedfor suchprovision. the This isparticularly unproductive andcalculations needto bebasedonreleasing thisspace for productive useasAD and structure country.depending onthespecificurban iscurrently Space usedfor parking infrastructure exclusive ofroads variesfrom between 5percent to 10percent surface ofcity supplysideeffectofAD concerns thebuiltenvironment.An andcar important surface Parking Built environment technology adaptation costs canbeassumedto benegligible. expenditure. Given thistogether withthelarge numberofusersandtheever diminishingcost ofIT hence adjustments canbeaccommodated many ofthenecessary withinthisexisting anticipated 40 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 www.policy-network.net

policy network special report automated vehicle travel might seetravel demanddouble. This additionaldemandfor travel willhave studiesimagineSome that prices for newlyautomated travel below thecurrent cost ofnon- of that technology. demand for vehicle travel whichinitselfwould seegreater price use,falls, andconsequent further technology. islikelythat thedecrease incost It ofautomated vehicle travel induces anincrease in determine theprice whilealso, conversely, determines thedeployment ofthat theprice itselfinpart to remember here of autonomous is important vehicle that various aspects technologyIt will inevitable consequence. Whenever tippingpoints are crossed, large scalereadjustments ofconsumer choices are the has beenspeculated aslikelyto occur sometimearound 2025. moment whentravelling inanautonomous cabbecomes cheaperthaninacabwithdriver, which modes will decreases,alternative milestone transport passing certain points‘ ‘tipping – such as the gainsinAs efficiency kick-in,price the AV ofusingautonomous technology vehicles compared to whether to runacarversus orpublictransport. usingabicycle or subconsciously weight incomparison to alternative –suchaschoosing modesoftransportation insurance, repairs and taxes). that criteria users consciouslyThe sumofthesecosts isanimportant the cost offuel, thecosts associated withthepotential oftravel risks andvehicle fixed costs (suchas price weBy meanacomposite ofthetimecost to theuser(previously referred to asin-vehicle time), toCritical theeconomic benefitsofautonomous pricevehicles willbetheeffect onthe of travel. accidents meansaneedfor fewer spare parts. may onemployment beaconsequent ofreplacement asfewer inthemanufacture impact auto parts in vehicle repairs isfreed upto work for example inmaintenance ofautomated vehicles butthere and repair industry.auto part Through in vehicle a reduction accidents, labour previously employed Take, for example, AD’s ontheprevalence impact oftraffic accidents andtheemployment inthe dependent. mechanisms effectsandmarket co- are effects butalsomeanthatinterlinked productivity and simultaneously affected. The resulting interactions betweengives sectors rise to potential multiplier The effects ofautonomous vehicles ontheeconomy are complex willbe since sectors various The complexity ofAD’s economic impact the employment market. ofthree percenta maximumproductivity isfeasible ofADon inthemediumterm from theimpact spent retraining andbecausesomeshare –we ofthe labourremains assumethat intransportation growth.to productivity Taking into thetransition during account process frictions –suchastime can beredeployed to growth care. suchaselderly sectors This transfer oflabourfullycontributes care workers across Europe asthepopulationages–thosedisplaced sharply by vehicle automation isreleased asproductivesectors capacity backinto thelabourmarket. Take of theforecast shortage a whole, becausewhere jobsdisappear, newjobsusuallybecome available inthesameorother workers, ultimately even this ofjobs’‘loss to canbeexpected ultimately benefittheeconomy as Yet even into this, account whiletaking theinitialconsequences ofdisplacement for individual be fullyautonomous andindependent withnoneedfor drivers. – whereasdriving for now autonomous taxis require drivers, it is probable that in the future cabs will The mostobvious area where ofthelabour market levels ofemployment would beeffected istaxi 41 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 www.policy-network.net

policy network special report the later somewhat. accumulated GDPgainsvary eachofthethreeIn scenarios theforecasted GDPchangeisrobust intheinitial period’‘take-off but by themselves almost account for thisGDPincrease asthe otherbenefitsare slower to be realised. hurdles, GDPincreases by 3.5percent. Note hereby that accident androad congestion savings would In growth andaccumulated gainsofroughly €17tnare achieved by theyear 2050. the decadeupto 2035,autonomous vehicles have thereby added0.3percent to theannualGDP autonomous vehicles encounters onlymildchallenges, GDPhasgrown by four percent in2035.In a moreIn gradual scenario B, adjuststo realities market where andtheadaptation to policy larger incomparison thanthecurrent GDPof€16tn(EU-27). gains of€23tnare possibleover the33year forecast period. 2045,GDPwould By be seven percent technology, aswell asadaptation to reality, thenewurban accumulative gross domesticproductivity landscapeacross scenario Europe A,withaproactive implementation policy In ofthe andswift outlined above. overall economic benefits for Europe’s economy, given thesupply-side effects forthethree scenarios gainsfromThe autonomous productivity vehicles are setto besubstantial. Figure 4shows the Overall and GDPgainsfrom autonomous vehicles productivity gains. productivity further would increasethen thenumberofavailable byoffive opportunities afactor workplace –againwith Furthermore, gainsin travel ifefficiency makelonger travel distances cheaperandmore feasible access workers orelderly are ableto work longerinto life astheneedto ‘drive’ isdisplaced. the long-term unemployed canbemore theycannotcurrently withworkplaces easily connected use ofacar. significant gaincould indeed–if, bevery The possiblesocialandmonetary for instance, without access suchastheelderly, to suchtransport, children andpeoplewithoutadrivers’ license or effectfromvehicle providing –istheproductivity access to to vehicle mobility consumers currently the adoptionoffullautomation ability/qualification withnodriving required to useanautonomous potential economic gainfrom thewidespread useofautonomous vehicles –andonewhichwillneed gainsreduce by 30 per cent fuel efficiency the direct to 50 per significant cent. One other very these unintended known consequences gainsasthe fromare efficiency ‘rebound effect’ andlikely thatspending onotherproducts require energy –for example onboard devices inthevehicle. Both lower prices are for likelyto transportation result inreleasing economic resources for larger consumer if theenergy source beingdrawn uponfor thisadditionaltravel isnotfullyrenewable. addition, In Similarly, increased travel demandresulting from lower prices might reduce environmental gains and efficiency. obvious repercussions onsomeoftheaforementioned suchasroad economic factors congestion 42 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 reactive scenario C,where autonomous vehicles encounter substantial technological andpolitical www.policy-network.net

policy network special report Figure gains 5:Productivity GDP gainofaround €100bn. example, intheyear 2030reduced road congestion and accident prevention produce anannualgain Although notaslarge astheemployment andbuiltenvironment gainstheyremain significant; for benefits –thedecrease in road accidents; the ‘in-vehicle’ timegainsand road congestion reduction. the labourmarket. These gainsare inadditionto thetraditional andmore obviously anticipated isthat gainsstem thelargest fromWhat productivity thebuilt environment isstriking incitiesand gaininourmodel. ofproductivity aspects FigureIn gainsfor 5,theproductivity thegradual scenario are shown broken down by thedifferent Figure 4:GDPgrowth 43 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 www.policy-network.net

policy network special report so-called co-creation process co-creation for findingnew,so-called space. better usesofparking this area; for example, companies andlocalgovernments aninclusive, canengageresidents to start landusearecommercial debate keywords thatin use. might andsmart shapethepolicy Co-creation tax revenues canbemaximisedthrough the creation ofgreen areas, publicspace andlow-impact to utilise thisspace productively in the future. There is a large bodyofevidence that suggests that into account planningthespace that intheir city will become available incentral locations, soas space andinthelongterm private carownership.parking now to take shouldstart Municipalities citiesespecially,In landisascarce andcostly resource. Autonomous vehicles can reduce on-street improve infrastructure andpublic (automated) transport. are implemented correctly, greater could beachieved socialequality by usingtherevenue raised to are fairer andmore efficient thancurrent ‘one-size-fits-all’ congestion prices. zone Ifsuchschemes and thentransparently communicated to theuserbefore usingthevehicle. thisway, In travel costs would be calculated in real-time according to the travel distance and the current traffic situation vehicle congestion isamore pricing form direct thancurrent ofpricing congestion zones. Prices cost saving to drivers and large additional improvements to other road users. How? Autonomous itshouldbepossible to ofroad getrid Stockholm, congestion once andfor allwithsubstantial However, for citizens intowns that have already accepted road pricing, suchasLondon and gainsthroughput. arelikely innercitiesthisbenefitislimited tobe andsoefficiency In lower. For example, onhighways, more efficient useof roadsupplythrough road-trains canincrease traffic fees andcongestion pricing. Automated vehicles canhelpreduce road congestion invariousforms. are schemes, usingamixofmeasures, bicycle policymakers parking Modern suchaspublictransport, travelunsustainable levels intheeternal ofcart city. theissue–takeRome, 2millenniaagoJuliusCesartackle already felt against theneedto takeaction The fight against road congestion isanancientItnotjust struggle.today’s mayors whohave to to doso. action policy potential to bearemedy to allthree oftheselimitations butwillrequire decisive andconsistent road congestion, available landandenvironmental constraints. Autonomous vehicles have the centres are the cores of economic productivity, but simultaneously the areas most hampered by withthemthegreatest alsobring butperhaps with highpopulation density challenges. Urban No matter where autonomous vehicles emerge first, theywilloffer the greatest advantages tocities muchspecific to differentvery levels ofpopulation size anddensity The implications ofautonomous vehicles are interms ofbothpotential benefitsandsuitablepolicy officials andcity are,Municipal perhaps, themostdirectly involved actors.governmental minimises thelevel ofdisruption,especiallyto thelabourmarket. to adequately prepare andensure Europe openingupand takesfulladvantage oftheopportunities economic revolution. positions, Strong aswe policy willbeneeded outlineintherest ofthisreport, significant andpotentially temporarily destabilising, economic consequences ofsosignificant an just down theroad. Government at alllevels needsto beaware ofthe, ultimately positive but Therefore, isto ourstrong getready messageto andprepare policymakers for what is, literally, consequences willbefelt at alllevels ofgovernment: from themayor to theministry. will behuge. Autonomous vehicle technology willaffecttheentire population andthereby its We have demonstrated that terms theeconomic innumerical consequences andbenefitsofAD A call’‘wake-up for -theeconomic policymakers consequences ofAD 44 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 www.policy-network.net

policy network special report (Technical appendix) space and year arecar parking imaginable. designs thisfuture needto beflexible andacknowledge change– cost savings ofup to €4,000per spacegarageextra isimaginable andtherefore inthenearfuture soparking parking close-proximity to safely for park a humandriver and to openthedoor. Autonomous vehicles will not needthis autonomous vehicle allows –by reducing thedistance carsby between parked theamount ittakes period. facilitiesshouldalreadyWhich meansdesigns takeinto ofany account parking forthcoming facilities. parking These long-term investments have ahorizon well into theautonomous vehicle account autonomous vehicle on-going developments. There isoneexception of –theconstruction Fortunately, for now, inthemain,investment decisionsby localgovernments donotyet needto take 45 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 Labor Build environment infrastructure Road Efficiency Accidents congestionRoad Value ofin-vehicle time Adaptation rate aspect Model Labor economics economics Urban Transportation science Environmental literature Accident prevention Economics Transport economics Saturation 95percent Take-over time18years offastgrowthStart 2022 Sigmoid function diffusionofinnovationRogers Assumption(s) Eurostat dataMunicipal ministries National transport data Industry World HealthOrganization European commission Eurostat data Industry Data Source www.policy-network.net

policy network special report populist technology trap; itcanprove agenuinelyliberating socialforce. Overcoming ofAV thebarriers adoptionwilldomore thanavoid gettingstuckina ofsociety therisk adriverless busto inNewcastle, theirGPpractice as well taking astheelderly Essenor Valladolid. –proving mustwork for aswell aboonforcentury society asindustry Europe’s carmanufacturers national level. doingsowe In are convinced that model for asuccessful the21st transportation We willconsider politicaland socialissuesthatonlocaland willchangesocietiesand industries spread aswidelypossible. guide not only the successful transition to automation but also ensure that are the benefits arising This chapter innovations willpresent that, anumberofpolicy ifimplemented, would dojustthat – populistsentiment spreadinganti-establishment through theelectorate. are able to make technology work for everyone, there is a real danger of anti-tech, anti-growth and UK sci-fi television drama cannot demonstratefeaturing synthetic humans. thatIf policymakers they awayaccusing themoftaking theirjobs. Ascenario mostrecently inHumans, portrayed apopular situation where workers low-skilled taketo the streets intelligence in protest and of artificial robots; globalisation, they may soon focus their fire on fromfears arising digitalisation. Just aspopulistshave madesignificant gainsin recent years by playing on fromfears arising out to globalisation. about technology (includingAD) resonates moststrongly withthosewhobelieve that theyhave lost revolutionindustrial didsobecausetheyfelt economically threatened. The dangeristhat scepticism add to that populismimperative allthe –after ‘luddites’ whoraged againstthetechnology ofthefirst across America. Europeeven further andNorth The doubtsabouttechnology have clearpotential to politicians do not take the concernsIf of the economically vulnerable seriously, populism will spread across thecontinent that thewinnersofyesterday willbethelosersoftomorrow. results (anddare we mention the Brexit referendum) are testament to fears rising amongvoters when globaleconomic power eastandtheEuropean isshifting ‘project’ isat point. aturning Election EuropeIn theimperative to capitaliseonAD’s potential to transform economies comes at atime will nothappenwithouttheother. for the transition to ADto pre-condition itselfbeasuccess.public good butitisalsoanecessary One sure that reformsmaking by arethe public. supported Not only is that, rightly, for the necessary to autonomous vehicles mustbeunderstood inawidercontext ofsocietalandpoliticalchange, adopters.early Put simplythismeansthat from thetransformation conventional oftransport thetransition asbeneficialpossible changes onmaking for thepopulation asawhole, notjust andbusinessesbeyondwork, thosemostobviously involved. They willneedto focus theirpolicy ontheeconomy butresearch,understand theseismicimpact andthefuture ofnotjusttransport The transition to adriverless future willrequire to properly embrace thosepolicymakers and a genuineglobaleconomic andsocialrevolution. to take the lead in defining a future which promises of autonomous mobility the opportunity to be needto urgentlypolicymakers start driverless’.‘thinking theydonot, Europe If throwing risks away As thediscussiononreforming traffic codesand road regulations unfold in countriesacross Europe frameworkregulatory inplace. But, likemostpoliticalquestions, that remains abigif. The previous chapters have shown thevast economic potential ofAV: ifpoliticiansgettheright Politics: overcoming thebarriersto adoption 46 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 This might lead to a www.policy-network.net

policy network special report “The best advice I can give localdecision-makersisto have“The aconversation with eachother. Idon’t towns andcitiesonhow to best makeuseofnewtechnology willberequired. decision canbemadeonce AV technology isready for markets. However, individual solutionsfor the meansto promote changeonthelocallevel. As outlined intheeconomic analysis mostofthe make sure that theyencourage dialogueinlocaltown hallsacross Europe have andauthorities To avoid agrowing digital divideandexploit theeconomic potential ofAV., needto policymakers models in rural areas). atand evolving hand (eg pods in cities, modes of transportations ride-sharing scenarios at handwhichhave aclear visionofinvestment ininfrastructure, engagement withcitizens order to meettheneedsofhighlydiversified citieswillneed structures to have urban implementation different andmore diverse than we imagineacross itandrural urban space.to be,In inparticular Across Europe modelby 2050isachievable, aseamlessanddriverless transport butlikelyto bevery cities orregions behind. willpullaheadwhileothersare left such as the TFL in London. As that with other major technological this poses the risk some shifts level andinmetropolitan areas regimes withhighlysophisticated already transport inexistence, At themoment thediscourse onAV ismainlyaninsiderconversation place onthenational –taking One 47 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 extreme weather. would putautonomous vehicles through anespeciallychallenging test ofsnow andother technology could beadvantageous dueto Norway’s difficultwinter road conditions, which bill needsto beapproved by thecountry’s 2017. parliamentinspring The adoptionofAV specificpublic roads legalsometimein2017.However,autonomous oncertain driving this of Ministry TransportNorwegian onabillthat iscurrently would working maketesting of zero’,‘Vision system. aconcept inthetransport ofnofatalitiesinjuries orserious The line withthisoverarchingIn aim,theNational Transport Plan stresses theimportance contributes to thetransition into society”. alow-emission isto foster policy transport “a system that issafe, transport promotes economic growth and bestsellers. the government’s In National Transport Plan 2018-2029, Norway’s overarching Tesla alsobeing vehiclesLeaf models, suchastheNissan and withotherelectric e-Golf VW with generous government subsidies. These incentives have resulted inrocketing salesof progressive agendapromoting andhighlyautomated salesofelectronic policy vehicles From aconsumer standpoint, theplansfor Oslo’s driverless future by a are supported neutral by 2050. Norway’s aimto emissionsby cutcarbon 40percent by 2030,andto becompletely carbon private vehicles cars. isconsistent Onanational level, self-driving with adoptingelectric which operate inharmony andcyclists, could withpedestrians helpachieve Oslo’s banon LUTZ orpublicautonomous shuttlebuses, pathfinder (currently intheUK), beingtrialled without doingaway withcarsaltogether. For smallpodslikethe instance publicself-diving coupled withautonomous technology canprovide more efficient meansof transport – aimingat theoverall elimination reduction ofprivate caruseby 2030.Public transport Oslo hasrecently announced itsambitionto banallprivate by 2019 carsintheinnercity Oslo: Look mum,nocars size won’t fit all: promoting dialogue between local 39

and regional stakeholders 2029, February 2016. the National Transport Plan 2018- authority, of EnglishSummary National 39. Norwegian Transport www.policy-network.net

policy network special report when itistoo late willsuffer. themostvulnerable insociety there isany ‘flight to cars’. they, If forgive thepun, ‘miss thebus’, abouttheissue by onlythinking by developing innovative that takeadvantage ofthenewtechnological services possibilitiesbefore Policymakers must be alive to this danger and see AV not a threat to public services as an opportunity unsustainable.level ofservice small andmedium-sized citiesasenoughcurrent passengersswitch to cars, rendering thecurrent above) (asdescribed thedangeristhat in adeteriorationpublic transport occurs inpublictransport to acar)switching to automated private vehicles, especiallyinareas whichdonotgetexciting new because of economic, health reasons or simple choice they do not have licence a driving or access AV term. If possible dangersintheshort results inthosewhotoday (either rely onpublictransport But iftheADfuture may presage exciting developments italsocontains aheadfor publictransport, where currently thecosts ofdrivers makesuchprovision unrealistic. autonomous vehicles will enable cost-realistic demand-responsive to be provided public transport easierandcheaper). current disabledtransport door-to-school Whereas insmallcitiesandrural areas currently butwhowould designedfindanautonomous publictransport, vehicle easier(egmaking allows large welfare benefits, eg greater provision for thosewho, for whatever reason, cannotuse publictransit, autonomousthat offer vehicles willbea high-quality complement to transit that asasubstitute orcomplementThese canserve to publictransit. For large andmediumsized cities provisionA keyquestionishow willwork publictransport incombination withautonomous vehicles. needs” adviser, Senior Association ofCar and Truck Manufacturers, Spain. iseasierto needs compared modifyexisting infrastructure for“It to publictransport private transport well aspedestrians. envisage thefullintegration ofAV systems technology as withcars, andbicycles publictransport However, thebenefitsof AV technology asawholemay gofarbeyondfor society ifpolicymakers Currently the debate onAV technology onprivately centres owned ontheimpact cars. primarily Fostering integration ofAV technology inpublicandprivate transport environments themwithothercitiesandregions” andconnect Government adviser, UK. what theirdemandsareknow ontheground. They needto tailorindividualsolutionsfor theirurban 48 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 Image credit:Image Theo Möller www.policy-network.net

policy network special report shape the city ofthefuture thecity shape Let thecitizens decide:democratise thedevelopment ofurban space for ADto livingifitstoressuburban upnegative consequences. example, by increasing divorce rates. Policy decisionsshouldabstainfrom subsidisinglow-density are suburbs lessefficient,outer less low-density and productive are argued to reduce welfare, for obvious isthat theeasingoflongerdistance travel may encourage movement into suburbs. But There are thoughpossibledangersfrom the ‘advantages’ autonomous vehicles willbring. One of AD. will need to introduce autonomous vehicle mandatory zones to fully utilise the cumulative benefits andwelfareproductivity benefitsofthelatter. Therefore, itispossiblethat at somepoint municipalities conventional carsare inamixwithautonomous vehicles itwillmakeharder to reach thefull For larger cities, though,there isadangerthat if, inthemediumterm, remaining traditional, beencost prohibitive. oflines)hashitherto intosolutions to connect rail heads(thestart intheinfamous lost theirrail connection ‘Beeching’ cuts, butwhere theuseoftraditional driver-led AVs could, for instance, reconnect into therailway timetablethosetowns andcitiesintheUKwhich vehicles travel, withlonger-distance especiallytrains.willtakeplanningbutthecreative It useof As to well there integrate asthefocus are ofonlocalpublictransport opportunities autonomous buses could journeysastheycan take reactbetter to passengerdemands” shorter -AV UK. expert, would“Public alotmore be flexibleandefficientwith transport automated vehicles, smalland large: budgets.stressed municipaltransport areas through improvements at the same time as alleviating in financially sustainable connectivity Linien-Bus inGermany. gainsAD Theoffers canunlock efficiency even greater socialbenefits for rural transit already in operation, for example, Connect2Wiltshire and Anruf- in the United Kingdom The goodnews isthere are interesting examples ofnon-automated demand-responsive public urban space in light of the opportunities that autonomous vehicles spaceurban inlight usherin. oftheopportunities or innovative ways to bothintegrate autonomous vehicles into theircommunities andhow to alter greatest lives, potential their day-to-day to impact thosecitizens are bestplaced to offer solutions withintheirown communities.and publictransport As planninghasthe such, andbecauseurban ofprivate Citizens andintimate oftheparticularities are knowledge theoneswithmostin-depth onimprovinga widerimpact experience theurban for all. only accommodate process, theneeds ofADbutto utilisethevery andthespace liberated, to make areas. especiallyinurban and otherwise, The process ofthat review offers to not great opportunities isundoubted review serious that thecoming ofthewayIt ofADwillentail avery we usespace, road 49 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 wheeled transport willhelpfoster theuseofsustainable wheeled transport electric carselectric forindividuals withreduced mobility” means of transport, such as cycles orlow-speed suchascycles means oftransport, “The reduction oftheriskassociated with “The - Automotive industry expert, Spain. expert, - Automotive industry www.policy-network.net

policy network special report when we are sat onEurope’s busesandtrams butwe do, interact witheachother. at least, partly we aneven risk more atomised – we society may besittingwithheadphones inswipingourscreens narrowing ofsocialconnections. Put simply, ifmore peopleare pods, buzzingaround do inself-driven andleadingto forawidersense ofthe publictransport support ‘privatisation’ space/ ofthetransport reinforcing less financially sustainable, seeing a lesseningof political services social divides, making usersnarrows.transport poor, becoming ofonlythevery thepreserve That publictransport risks currently do not use private cars it is likely that the social range, as well as absolute numbers, of public dangers isthat ADleadsto anewform of social ‘apartheid’. As ADspreads private caruseto thosewho be instantly positive, beingthought through. As highlighted inthequotation above oneofthose of ADseize theimagination withoutthewiderandlongerterm socialeffects, notallofwhichwill awayThere getcarried andthat isadanger that theheadlinesocialinclusionbenefits policymakers technologies.” integration andprevent inresponse segregation to shift new asmodesofpublictransportation people and poor whites. We have to think aboutthe ways that we cancontinue to promote social do makepeoplemore atomised. theUnitedare States In black thepeoplewhousepublictransport here.factors We donotwant segregation. Cars cancreate abubble. The isthat risk carsinany form aboutanything thattheuniversalism undermines worry Britain ofpublictransport. There are social adviserintheUKtold us: As aseniorparliamentary “Politicians in Whitehall andtown hallsacross modes transport Ensure equitableaccess to for mobility allandbalance prices between acceptance thenational ofautonomous andenriching debate technology. ontheimpact benefits anddrawbacks of autonomous driving technology, potentially heightening consumer Additionally, to educate process thepublicabout thevery ofconsultation isanopportunity strengthening theirpolicymaking. would enhance ofinformation the richness that could emanate from thesedigital consultations they should do with the increase in green space. doing so, In governmental and regional authorities regional could ask citizens authority spaces, what they should do with the freed or what up parking the transition to AD. For instance, inlight oftheinfluence ofautonomous space,vehicles onurban a needs,information democratising planningprocess theurban ontheirparticular consequent on Governments andregional shouldadaptthisdigital authorities platform to provide answers and they have madethischoice. the introduction ofautonomous vehicles, comments andprovide andclarificationsonwhy further pin onanarea theyfeel intheirneighbourhood would bepositively ornegatively through impacted the website isaccessible at process. any to drop allows time)ofthedecision-making a participants It inclusiveness consultation, itto (itdoesnotnecessitate ameetingpoint and for making face-to-face platform, it increases else’s can see everyone the a virtual openness (everyone comments) and toofmodellingfuture share mobility. theirthoughtsparticipants instantly andbeapart As itis Commonplace isaweb application usedintheGreenwich GATEway allowing intheUK, project understanding what commuters andcitizens thinkofautonomous vehicles withintheircommunities. appsofferNew technologies a –suchaswebcost effective, andsmartphone open way of costs, leadto often problemstransport ofdropout rates. costs, that mostconsultations coupled withthe fact barsometimes donotpay theirparticipants, allofwhichlimitshow restrictions) representativemobility theviews acquired are. actually These to makeitto thephysical location oftheconsultation (for delays instance, or becauseoftransport the organisers, to hearfrom theability restricting thosewhohave full-timejobsorwhoare unable Traditional aswell methodsofpublicconsultation for asfor canbetime-intensive theparticipants 50 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 40 Rowman &Littlefield, p. 68. Needto Change,Democracy Populist Signal: Why Politics and 40. ClaudiaChwalisz (2015): The www.policy-network.net

policy network special report Make increase andmakeupfor socialmobility excessive rents ininnercities. final destination. This would help cut commuting times, if accompanied by public fundingit could both could shuttle individuals from spot to one frequently another, used public transport or to their problem, ascould publicpodsmodelledontheLUTZ Pathfinder Milton Keynes, in (trialled UK): Autonomous sharing, ride matching individualsgoinginsimilardirections, could helpsolve this places ahigherburden onthepoorrelative to othersocialgroups. andinterchangetransportation schedules, involving often lengthy andwaiting times, walking which affectsthedisabledandelderly.disproportionately Additionally, larger have citiesoften complex stop ormetro or railaccess station), andfrom points to thetransport thefinaldestination. This the legsofcommute access spent points gettingto (thebusortram thepublictransport accessibility iscentred theconcern surrounding equitabletransport on Often, mileconnectivity’,‘last condition. helpimprove andemployment activities, services, allofwhichcould partially theirsocioeconomic social exclusion, leads to as it makes it harder further mobility for the poor to access basic goods, compared ontheleastwell-off impact to allothersocial a disproportionate groups. Constrained Relatedly,accessible publictransportation. areas inurban have deficienciesinpublictransport this meansthat travel timesfor thepoorest are thelongest, heightening often theirneedfor technical jobvacancies in theyear from August 2015to 2016–upby 46per cent since 2012/2013. demand for technical workers is already significant.In the UK for instance, there were 2 million gaps. The andcloseskills future, shortages governments to identify skills mustmakeitapriority andautonomousconnected carsandwilldemandadifferent, more adriverless In technical, skillset. The daily work routine of motorists, couriers and even different bus drivers will look very in a of world are areas, concentrated ofurban often where rents ontheperiphery are relatively low. According to UNresearch andpoverty, into insociety thelinkbetween transport theleastwell-off inthesuburbs thelesswell-off connecting asaservice: Mobility hasto prevent actively system.policy theemergencepublictransportation ofatwo-tier ownership modelsare agoodcomplement for amodelofsocialinclusion.Above all, governmental for categories prone to social exclusion). Beyond the provision shared of inclusive public transport, autonomous vehicle systems through innovative price incentives (suchasconcession travel cards Public subsidiescanhelpensure that low-income consumers are alsoableto benefitfrom public a strong caseto inaway design structures pricing that aligns ofsocialinclusion. withtheobjectives Therefore, ofintegrating systems, asapart autonomous vehicles withpublictransport there might be precarious employment orwithoutajob. ‘outsiders’ and ‘insiders’ –thosewith stablejobsandsolidcareer prospects, andthoseinmore and there are likelyto beheightened between labourmarket tensions conflicts anddistributional for Butthereality isthat there skills. hasbeenmuchmore evidence polarisation oflabourmarket economy wascome assumedthat theknowledge to fruition.It would increase theoverall demand The is that challenge for previous about the future projections policymakers of work have not always as ourresearch shows, AV may addto thischallenge. The is, labourmarket ingeneral, perceived to beunderpressure from ITandrobotic technology and, prepared indomesticandinternational for theshifts markets labour 51 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 IT-skills a priority in education at 41 all levels, in particularly apprenticeship level, [1] However, to be 42 UK, p66. UK, Progressive Capitalism: London, strategy,industrial Centre for Apost-Brexitthe UKeconomy: Alastair (2016):Rebalancing 42. Thomas Aubrey andReed, SOLIDAR. social investment”. Brussels: and promote jobs, growth and reforms to reduce inequalities Reforms. Proposals for European Structural (ed.) “Progressive still theanswer?, in:Conny Reuter isEUflexicurity labour markets: Thillaye changing (2015):Rapidly Florian andRenaud 41. Ranft, Oxon, p.109 UK, 2013;Routledge: Settlements onHuman Global Report for Mobility: SustainableUrban (2013): Planning andDesign ProgrammeSettlements [1]. United Nations Human www.policy-network.net

policy network special report up vast job opportunities butalsotheneedto retrainup vast theworkforce. jobopportunities overall revenue in the sector, from less than four per cent in 2015 to 16 per cent in 2030 – opening from new technologydigital willincrease,in the vehicle and services, software industry as ashare of that predict intheautonomous era profits butalsoin maintenance Experts services. e-commerce) (internet- includingmusic, and cloud-basedservices, tv,in consumer services socialmedia, which would have been spentwillbefreed driving upcreating enewbusinessandjobopportunities that exists inmostEuropean shortage countries.skill/labour According to consumers PwC, time, there isastrong thosedisplaced casefor drivers to aplanready helpfillthe technical to up-skill As technical jobsare notonlyindemandbutalsooffer apay premium compared to othersectors have losttheirjobsasdrivers. need to explore how training systems willhave to beadjusted to backinto bring work thosewho not muchtimeforbefore act thosedrivers, beitoftaxisortrucks, willneednewjobs. Governments andlogisticsthere sector. willhave effectonjobsinthetransport animmediate knock-on There is jobs. Assuming thefirstfullyautonomous, that isdriverless, vehicles willbehittingour roads by 2025 Another keyissuewillbehow retraining to provide for high-quality thosethat are forced to change to befit for theITeconomy by thetimetheyhitlabourmarket. follow to andalgorithms suitteaching even computational theyoungest thinking pupilsiftheyare as2012,theUKfollowed asearly schoolcurriculum countries willhave in2014.Other toprimary require teachers withspecialismsincomputing orinformatics. Estonia introduced coding into the inschools, universitiesIT skills andvocational training. This alsomeansthat education systems will need of. To gapgovernments coding and closetheskills mustmakegreater insupporting efforts education andtraining for young peoplemustbeimproved theeconomy to develop theskills isin As therequirements for moveladdertechnical jobsinpublicandprivate uptheskills transport unnecessary upheaval andstressunnecessary to workers thetransition during process andreduce market willalsobeupto national governmentsIt to provide adequate socialsafety measures to avoid Source: Thomas Aubrey andAlastair Reed, (2016). Figure 6:UKjobvacancies by occupation level, 2015/2016and2012/2013 the autonomous world. vocational lifelongthe necessary that learning can best match needed them to the higher skillset reasonably Policy mustbedeveloped paidwork. to allow thosewithouthighereducation access to These technical vacancies offer thosewithoutuniversity degrees the for greatest opportunity 52 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 Managers, directors and senior officials Caring, leisure and other service Administrative and secretarial Sales and customer service Elementary occupations Associate professional Professional Technical 0 242,600 324,100 327,610 500,000 407,500 427,500 542,100 582,600 608,400 668,100 782,900 1,000,000 821,600 2015/16 923,800 43

2012/13 1,500,000 1,373,400 2,000,000 2,010,800 2,053,600 44 2,500,000 3,000,000 2,857,800 3,500,000 28/10/2016). (lastaccessedreport-2016.pdf com/media/file/Connected-car- http://www.strategyand.pwc. the road to autonomous vehicles, on andturmoil risk, opportunities, 2016: Connected carreport EvanHirsh, andDieter Ahlemann: 44. Richard Viereckl; Koster, Alex; 43. Ibidem. www.policy-network.net

policy network special report gigabyte ofdata persecond When autonomous connected vehicles process theirsurroundings, theycangenerate upto 1 according to theEuropean commissioner commission. market ElżbietaBieńkowska Internal Satellite systems willplay avitalrole reliable insecuring mappingtools for autonomous vehicles, safe rollout ofautonomous vehicles. vehicle), V2I (vehicle to infrastructure), V2X (vehicle communications, to everything) facilitating the Thus, across rolling Europe out5Gconnectivity isimperative for therealisation of V2V (vehicle to them to beableto communicate between themselves, withothercars, andwithotherroad users. in thecar’s memory. Additionally, asautonomous carsbecome more prevalent, itwillbecrucialfor tolearn drive better, andissent outto thecar manufacturer’s instead network ofremaining stored stop working just becauseitcrossesstop over working from oneEuropean region to another. in order to ensure seamlesscross-border operation ofAVs. An automated, carshouldnot connected The clearmessagefrom ourresearch isthat there needto bejointly agreedstandards connectivity across borders. Make greater to invest efforts inEuropean data infrastructure (free flow ofdata) withinand is theimprovement conditions andsocialwelfare ofworking notjustbenefits to thebottom line. public debate that politicalandbusinessleadersunderline oneofthemaindrivers ofautomatisation in ‘flexicurity’ willneed asmuchtheflexibility.to beunderlined Todothat itwillbevitalthat inthe economy. Therefore, to ensure greater publicacceptance ofamore thesecurity flexible labelmarket a sufficient socialsafety netskills demandedinadigital forthosewhocannotkeep track withthe has beenseenrecently asacatalyst to increasing employment by easingjobprotection, butnotas employment, EUgovernments shouldconsider therevision ofthe ‘flexicurity’ concept. This concept At atimewhenADwillbeaddingto rapid thealreadypace inthechangeofnature very of and regardless ofthesocialconsequences. Politicians willneedto makesure that theyembrace technology andinnovation, butnotat allcosts injobs that are education and training undergoingquality to a transformation. unlockopportunities to jobcreationbarriers in thenew emerging areas. 53 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 the EUneedsto pushfortheexpansionof5Gnetworks.” autonomous vehicles can seamlesslycirculate.” making sure thattheremaking are similarregulations “At thelevel isconcerned, where connectivity “The government’s“The role centred shouldbe on throughout different regions, sothat 45 . This ofinformation vast quantity helpsallotherautonomous cars - Automotive industry expert, Spain - Automotive expert, industry - Automotive industry expert, Spain expert, - Automotive industry They willneedto ensure the provision of high accessed 28/10/2016). (last driving-driverless-cars automation/blog/information- data-dimension-robotics-and- com/technology-innovation/ www.eiuperspectives.economist. driverless cars,driving https:// Unit (2016): The information 45. The Economist Intelligence www.policy-network.net

policy network special report What happens to this footage? How cantheEUmakesure ofthosepeopleis that theidentity autonomous cardrives by arehabilitation centre, itwould senseand record peopleinthisscenario. of individualsgenerally, butespeciallyindividualsinvulnerable positions?For example, whenan example, videoandaudiobestored? how shouldtheexternal What ifitcould leadto theidentification Last but not least, the protection to of agents the autonomousexternal vehicle is also pivotal. For Protection ofby-standers at theEuropean level. breach could beimmediately life threatening. These standards willneedto bedecided, andpoliced, consequencesin otherdevices ofamalicious asthesecurity suchascomputers orsmartphones, to rigorous standards. Abreach intheautonomous vehicle’s isnotthesameasabreach software Additionally, ofautonomous vehicle technology willhave thewidercybersecurity to besubject to thisdata (by orby eitherthecar manufacturer third parties). this data willneedtoandconsent beanonymised willhave andencrypted to besecured for access children’s schools),information theymay regard assensitive. order In to overcome thisvulnerability, identify andtrack individualsastheygoabouttheireveryday business(eghome, hospitaland work, autonomous vehicle’s location constitutes personalandprivate information, asitcould beusedto car’s –thecontinuous location incaseofacrash orotheremergency recording andemission of the presentlyUnlike otherdata andlocation transmissionavailable services oncars–whichtransmit a just lookat thecurrent European ondata between Facebook sharing action and Whatssap. issueinEurope,important especiallyfor thekeyEUinstitutionsofcommission andparliament– thesecurity,As hasbeenseeninothersectors safety, access ofdata andsharing hasbecome avery Protection ofthedrivers andpassengers specific AD almostasmuchsector regulations. Thus, EUprogress inthewiderarea ofhigh-speeddata andsatellite on technology willlikelyimpact thus willensure theheightened reliability ofautonomous vehicle technology. of 30satellites inplace, anincrease from itscurrent of14,willmakethesignal network stronger and driverless technology. Having theEuropean commission move asclosepossibleto its2020target space, meaningtheEuropean commission satellite might usetheGalileo to network improve The solutionto thiswould beto adoptacombination aswell of5Gnetworks asdata coming from and withthesurrounding infrastructure. frequent cellular disruption,itmight bemore difficult for AVs to communicate between themselves explained that as autonomous vehicles become more numerous areas, in urban which are by marked 54 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 would needto decidedandmanagedatthislevel.” be level andprotection mechanisms. are thedatasecurity “Two important aspects thatare regulated aspects attheEU “Two important Questions of cyber security anddataprotection security ofcyber Questions - Automotive industry expert, Spain expert, - Automotive industry 46 expansion-search-217085 tsa-hits-the-brakes-on-precheck- transportation/2016/10/ com/tipsheets/morning- 46. http://www.politico. www.policy-network.net

policy network special report plants. manufacturing upmay realise endupbeingassignificant astraditional that mass thetechinsector quickly start become easyfor traditional politiciansto want to beseensupporting ‘car factories’, theywillneedto to bemore innovative thenascent has bridgingADindustry. intheway andsector itsupports It sowillgovernment andtechmanufacturers at services alllevels –EU, national andregional –need itself, through thingslikemergers andacquisition activity, willbegin to thegapbetween bridge withanassociated budgetofovertransport, €100mover thespanoftwo years. Justastheindustry under theHorizon 2020framework brought aboutadevoted callfor research into automated road for Europe’s roads. The announcement of a new funding platform for upcoming in Europe projects local andnational level inorder to collaborate anddeliver thesafest andmostefficient technology they realise are up to speed. Research alliances on and industrial need initial government support choice from onevehicle to anotheriftheirinitialchoice didnothave thetechnology andfeatures Fifty-sixa vehicle per cent will be stark. of new car buyers say they would switch their purchasing infocusThe shift from thephysical qualitiesofavehicle towards theinnovative technology within and hardware) issetto crumblerapidly. into andimplementation ofAV technology. (software Butthewall between tech andmanufacturing Two different very commercial forces, OEMs and technology companies, today dominate research country. sowillpositivelyDoing influence theadoption rates ofautonomous vehicle technology ineach positive that anddisruptive includingSMEsintheseresearch isappreciated. impact consortiums research anddevelopment related by to governments, autonomous carsissupported andthat the technology companies, platforms, academics, insurance companies, is essential that andSMEs. It long term). These alliances shouldseekto together bring thetraditionally dominating OEMswith alliances for (inthemedium/ research term) andmanufacturing anddevelopment (intheshort The implementation ofautonomous vehicle technology willrequire theformation ofbroader andsuppliers,manufacturers ITfirms, andinsurers academia Foster research anddevelopment between andlarge small(SMEs) car partnerships coherent withcurrent laws. European privacy andconcerned civilsociety, groups andindustry directorate-general soasto policiesthat are draft orderprotected? In to address theseconcerns, theEUshouldhostaroundtable withtheappropriate 55 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 Image credit:Image Theo Möller www.policy-network.net

policy network special report Since 2008, the tech startup sector hasconsistently sector addedjobstoSince European 2008,thetech startup economies. already is. Governmentbehaviour (blicksift). needsto appreciate thisnewway asmuchindustry ofworking that are, ofcars (Argus)cybersecurity amongotherthings, andanalysing cardrivers’ influencingthe and venture capital.doingso, thedevelopment In offlexible anddisruptive ithassupported startups Daimler, whichgives upto 10innovative tech entrepreneurs access expertise to a globalnetwork, entities. The bigOEMshave understood thistrend. For Autobahn from instance, isaspin-off startup which are appliedby SMEs, whohave risks than to takebigger corporate andcapacity theflexibility The most innovative technology breakthroughs stem from often publicly-funded research projects ofSMEsinthefieldautomatedthe inclusivity on. vehicles carries commission’s Horizon 2020 funding framework currently aimsto address this, butitis crucial that Specialfundinggivenor startups. to SMEsinvolved inresearch undertheEuropean projects large research projects, andeasilyexclude bothinvolume andinpartnerships, smallercompanies Not withstanding, government-backed research alliances and industrial are usually comprised of models butpatterns ofconsumption aswell. willinfluence notjustbusiness betweenThe down tech and manufacturing breaking ofbarriers inurbanespecially spaces andinadditionto bicyclesandpedestrians publictransport, Think Provide service: models, theconditions for shared-ownership andride-sharing assurance over ofinvesting theviability inresearch involving projects UKbusinessesanduniversities. and development theUKhasbeenoutofEUfor after awhile. and sowillprovide Doing certainty the UK should set out a comprehensive detailing how research the government report will support had onexcluding UKbusinesses anduniversities from European research projects. For thisreason, not address thefuture fundingofautonomous vehicle research that Brexit ortheimpact hasalready Although thisisasolutionprotecting undertheHorizonitdoes projects 2020fundingframework, bidding for competitive EUfundswhiletheUKremains amemberoftheEU. UK’s decisionto leave theEuropean Union,allowing businessesanduniversities British to continue secured. Chancellor Philip Hammondhasguaranteed that EUfundingwillbematched following the inlight ofBrexit the UK, autonomous vehicleIn research anddevelopment fundingneedsto be have to makesure ofresearch that SMEsare partnerships. andindustrial part order to exploit the economic and innovative benefits of the automated car industry, policymakers changing therulesonwhocantrade, what canbetraded andhow trading canbedone. Thus, in much easier, faster and cheaper for creators and innovators to build businesses whichare rapidly on innovations, theavailability ofnewdata sources andtheinternet. Suchresources have madeit 56 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 Including in research partnerships willhelpto unleashthefull Including inresearch partnerships “At oftheresearch equation. themomentSMEsare not part They are mainly seenasdoingthestandby production. economic ofautomated benefit driving.” - AV Germany. expert, 47 Both thriveBoth Council andNesta,Brussels. Digital Economy, theLisbon Growing Europe’sto Scale-up: Hofheinz (2016):From Startup 47. Sergey Filippov andPaul www.policy-network.net

policy network special report oftheirown. a service a “subscription basis”, ordeveloping services withexisting carsharing forming perhaps partnerships their businessmodelsfrom thesaleofcarstowards thesaleofaccess to afleetofautomated carson thrive theywillneedto evolve hybrids. into newtech/manufacturing OEMsmight even have to alter traditional OEMsortech companies willwintherace for thedriverless future –iftheOEMsare to Such a significant whether changeinthenature makesitfar from oftheautomotive certain industry cleaner way oftransport. withhugetraffic such asinChinaorIndia, problems where car-sharing offers a more efficient and needs. transport The sameistruefor rapidly expanding metropolitan areas inemerging markets, ownership models, weto seeyounger canexpect ‘early adopters’ usethesemethodsto fulfiltheir offer greaterSecond, ascar-sharing andride-sharing economic benefits tosomeusers than traditional emerge that over timeindividualowners feel rather theyare thanavehicle. buyingaservice caused by two developments which willchange the way how we understandmobility. First, it will From ourconversations itisevident intheshapeautomobile wesignificant industry canexpect shifts and research to aboutsignificant bring advancementsvehicle consortia technology. inself-driving recent years andnotjustinthecarsthemselves –collaborating withuniversities, companies, software havemanufacturers alsobeenshapingresearch anddevelopment onautonomous technology in resources to future guidetheirconsumers into oftransportation. africtionless Yet traditional car generation AV technology. Their vision is to make use of their vast existing platforms and data Amazon, – have Uber and Google the wheels of change, beenturning investing heavily in next- isnotjusttheOEMswhohaveIt beendeveloping AD, several ofthemajortech giants –including 57 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 than from within it: the co-operators of today might be the oftoday mightbe than from withinit:theco-operators “Usually from disruptionhappens rather outsideasector competitors oftomorrow.” - Senior government- Senior adviser, UK. Image credit:Image Theo Möller www.policy-network.net

policy network special report in urban areasin urban individualsindensemetropolitan areas willhave away to shift from thetraditional is heavily discounted to withotherindividuals).Due thescarcity ofspace ifyou decideto ride-share bysharing fostering competitive prices (asisthecase withUberpool, for example, where your ride to private providers whocantowardsincentivisesupport the shift of transport, automated ride allowing them to invest it in more useful and effective areas. The government could lend their bycould themunicipalandregional free upalotofthecapitalusedonpublictransport authorities, carsbecomes moreAs widespread thetechnology behindself-driving andmore cost effective, it bicycles, andpedestrians, willhelpavoid globalgridlock. with public transport, models in conjunction the conditions for and shared-ownership ride-sharing areas flexibility. andanincrease intransportation This canbecome a ifgovernmentsreality provide models,towards prompting less traffic in Europe’s andride-sharing shared-ownership metropolitan For thesereasons, government andprivate canplay industries apivotal role inincentivising theshift andotherbenefits, butmightsecurity beinitially to sharereluctant rides withothers. theircarsor on Europe’s roads willbesomewhat ambiguous. They willprefer autonomous carswhenitcomes to Consequently, consumer attitudes towards newownershipwithAV modelsinconnection technology taxi. likelyandrespectively35 percentindividualsare to consider ofIndian very aself-driving likely and likely taxi, respectivelywhile 32 per individuals centare to and very consider a self-driving the highestwillingness taxi. to useashared self-driving Twenty percent and42percent ofChinese to share by the theirrides. Asurvey World Economic Forum highlighted have that ChinaandIndia saturated, pressure onmetropolitan areas iseven greater andconsumers might bemore willing potential andappetite for autonomous vehicle technology inemerging are asmarkets markets not (as younger peopleare more adaptableto theideaof car-sharing andride-sharing). There ismore (forpeculiarities example, carsare stillwidelyseenasstatus symbols)andgenerational change The degree andspeedofautomated vehicle adoptionwilldependonthecultural andnational symbol. ownership models–itispossiblethat thetech, notthemetalandplastic, willcome to be thestatus introduction ofautonomous technology hasthepotential to changepeople’s behaviour towards five their carsevery to 10 years (the average carintheUKis, for example, 7.8 years old).However, the Traditionally, OEMsdevelop carsover afivecycle, year leading consumers into apattern ofchanging symbol. become ofself, anextension away ofdisplaying anddefining yourself to the throughworld astatus in newlydeveloping to markets taketo theroad. For many across theglobetheirchoice ofcarhas – fuellingtheexponential inthenumberofcarssoldworldwide, rise andtheclamourby consumers acarislongassociated withnotionsofindividualfreedom flexibility Owning andincreased transport Hanhzhou” -AV thought leader, Germany. car- to models solve thetraffic andride-sharing to support problems incities, Bejing, suchas Jinanor change theirway ofthinking. IntheChineseadministration there open are whoare policymakers very firms ina way thattheywillofferaservice inthefuture. rather thana product Butalso governments “Most car manufacturers They are have trends restructuringtheir theshifting intransport. understood 58 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 “Unclear whethertraditional car manufacturers will be abletowill be defendtheirmarket position” - Industry leader,- Industry UK. www.policy-network.net

policy network special report their homeandworkplace, have nootherchoice butto acquire acar. autonomous cars foraccessibility ofelectric many individualswho, dueto thedistance between cars are exemptelectric from vehicle tax as well as the congestion charge) This could increase the tax exemptions andsubsidiesmany governments already offer vehicles (egin for electric London Governments forward incentives shouldbring for autonomous cars;buildingon purchasing electric Co2 neutral economy autonomous vehicles. willdependontheintroduction offullyelectric ofitsenergy needsfromproportion renewable sources. andachieve theirgoalofa Butto gofurther hinge onthemodeofenergy generation. For example, isalready Denmark generating asubstantial cent stems from ofautonomous vehicle coal. electricity Clearly, theenvironmental benefitscrucially where isgenerated autonomous fully through vehicle renewables electricity andonewhere 33per We show inFigure ofautonomous vehicles 7theimpact onemissionsfor two scenarios: onescenario electric. The problem isthenenergy generation andtheemissionofglobalpollutants. autonomous succeeds vehicles in making fully if the industry to achieving this goal, in particular Autonomousof localandglobalpollutants from transport. vehicles willcontribute substantially isadeclared goalofallEUcountriesIt andthepost-Paris to globalcommunity reduce theemission Think green: andhybrid promote ofelectric powertrains theintroduction that combine AVtransport orcar-sharing models. withride-sharing move onfrom concept theout-dated ofowning aprivate cartowards private andpublicmodesof private ownership modelsthat nolongeroffer themunparalleled personalmobility. They need to 59 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 are doneby personalcar. city.km2 Twenty-three percent ofcommuters busesandonly14percent ride ofcommutes 2,000 passengertrains, which are responsible for moving 7.6 million people around the 603 thetraffic Mumbai, issosevererestrictions. In that over halfofthe commuters squeeze into on whetherexpanded andimproved were transit services developed intandemwiththe inmanyrestrictions cities. These schemeshave beenmore orlesssuccessful depending by theincrease ofcarsontheroad hasprompted officials to introduce vehicle-ownership part emerging causedinparts countries. pollutionandpoorairquality China,heavy In consumer power andof thestatus symbolsofcars, carsaleshave boomed, especiallyin surge in the number of cars from 1bn to a projected 4bn by to 2050. Due in global the rise Bill Ford calls “global gridlock” ofaglobaltrafficgridlock caused thepossibility bythe Beyond Europe’s borders: Avoiding “global gridlock” www.policy-network.net

policy network special report Figure 7:EmissionsofAV 60 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 and incentivising the introduction of electric andautonomousand incentivisingvehicles. theintroduction ofelectric fedable to anincome backinto earn from thegrid, theelectricity empowering consumers demand for energy peakhours. during The owners ofvehicles with would V2G capacity be grid. electric The mainadvantage ofthistechnology would to helpstabilise beitscapacity charging vehicles carsandpermitting to transmit stored energy backto from the itsbattery V2G technology consists ofanintelligent energy management system capableofboth (V2G) Vehicle-to-grid www.policy-network.net

policy network special report Shaping thefuture ofAV: recommendations 12policy 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 61 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 co-ordinate systemsco-ordinate andmeetthediverse needsofcities. systems. infrastructure ofthefutureThe willhave transport to bedigital aswell asphysical to ‘ride-sharing’ AV incities, while linking models, particularly withpublicrail, busandbicycle infrastructure embracing differentseamless transport modesincluding ‘shared ownership’ and theintegrationSupport oftechnology across thepublicandprivate to create sectors a world seamlessly frictionless oftransport. Foster integration ofAV to technology inpublicand private create sector transport AVleaders inpioneering developments. and mandate to taketheleadinstrategic Mayors for canbe planning, transport. particularly and responsibility to citiesandregions, while creating mayors powerful withtheauthority future, engagedintheprocess. andactively Many European countries are devolving power political representatives andstakeholders to ensure communities are prepared for anAV cities, as well andrural asurban areas. There dialoguewithlocalandregional shouldbeactive Promote adevolved approach to strategic planningfor AVs recognising thediverse needsof solutions. andinfrastructure and regions to policy promote andindividuallocal connectivity sizeOne willnotfitall:Encourage between stakeholders dialogue local inmunicipalities thatensuring agrowing ofAVs proportion powered are electrically by 2030. infrastructure for motor vehicles, soasto fullyrealise theenvironmental benefitsof AV by For government to take theleadininvesting in anewgeneration ofelectrification Think green: andhybrid promote ofelectric powertrains. theintroduction to reduce prices andimprove thecustomer experience. radically changehow consumers relate markets, andproduct withthepotential to keyservices ingoodsandservices. anddistribution production When combined withtheinternet, AVs will the future given ofAVs thecapacity to transform economic life by creating newsystems of policy.industrial Governments needto championAVs oftheirgrowth strategies aspart for ‘global race’ inAVs by 2030.Put thedevelopment ofAVs ofEuropean andnational at theheart Exploit thevast economic benefitsofthese technologies to ensure that Europe canleadthe in theglobalrace ofadriverless future. andexploit vast economicpolicy; of benefits AV technology to ensure Europe triumphs Harmonise international andnational legislation to promote common European traffic oversight.regulatory century, to settheframework andprovide publicpolicy needtheenablingrole ofactivist technologies’, whichhave hadthepotential to revolutionise oureconomies since thelate 19th ofAVs.about thesafety andsecurity The evidence isthat theadvance of ‘general purpose a rapid pace oftechnological development, andtherequirement to assuagepublicconcerns national abalanceHarmonise andinternational between theneedfor legislation whilestriking andthedevelopmentand security oftechnology. Adjust national legislation andstrike abalance between publicconcerns safety about www.policy-network.net

policy network special report 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 62 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 services. If drivers of emergency vehicles drivers ofemergency are If freedservices. upto complete othertasks, for example, AV canhelpto create more productive, more personalisedandmore responsive public inurbanespecially spaces andinadditionto bicyclesandpedestrians. publictransport, Think Provide service: models, theconditions for shared-ownership andride-sharing players across thepublic andprivate sectors. development, to ensure along-term strategic allofthekey whileco-ordinating framework, power wave thenext ofAV technologies. The role ofgovernment isto invest inresearch and between companies, large manufacturers, andhighereducation SMEs, institutionsto ICT Government invest shouldactively andthepublicsector incollaborative partnerships andsuppliers,manufacturers ITfirms, andinsurers. academia Foster research anddevelopment between andlarge small(SMEs) car partnerships congestion around cities. data to better systems, managelocalandregional transport for example to reduce rushhour least to ensure that ‘cybersecurity’ ismaintained, to whileenabling publicauthorities use easily across national borders. Governments needto oversee themanagement ofdata, not Invest inEU-wide data infrastructure to ensure information anddata canbeshared andflow and across borders. Make greater to invest efforts inEuropean data infrastructure (free flow ofdata) within by theadvance ofnewtechnologies, throughout life. equippingpeoplewithskills might become scarcer, oreven obsolete. hasto Public ensure behind that policy nooneisleft AV applications accelerate, jobs(for example, orhaulagedrivers) itislikelythat certain delivery educated workforce intheworld, andgovernments have to invest actively inhumancapital. As andqualifications.technical level skills To leadthe in world AVs, Europe has to have thebest the advance ofAV technologies inEurope, by investing particularly inapprenticeship and to ensure that policy theworkforceDevelop skills isavailable across countries to power preparedbe indomesticandinternational for theshifts markets. labour Make IT-skills ineducation at apriority alllevels, at apprenticeship inparticular level, to of economic prosperity. geographical scale, creating andwideningthewinner’s newemployment opportunities circle zones iteasierfor incities, workers whilemaking to onawider linkup withlabourmarkets help to ensure that AV technologies better linkperipheral areas into mainstream economic get better andintegrated connected into localeconomies thanothers. can Public policy Ensure that AV doesnotexacerbate the ‘digital divide’ by enablingsomecommunities to prices providers. between transport Ensure equitableaccess to for mobility allanddevelop strategies ofhow to balance help to give citizens agenuinevoice inthisprocess. social andenvironmental objectives. can Newforms sustainability ofdemocratic participation widespread, ‘repurposing’ andhighways carparks that are nolongerrequired inorder to meet inredesigningEnable citizens to participate thecitiesoffuture asAV usebecomes more of thefuture. Let thecitizens decide:democratise thedevelopments ofurban space to thecity shape www.policy-network.net

policy network special report 12. 63 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 programmes andapproaches to helpcounter negative to reactions AD. situationsunderpin inwhichindividualsare more sceptical oradverse to AV, andestablish humanbehaviouranalysis inrelation tracking to exposure to ADtechnology. This willhelp presently inplace vehicles, for electric butalsothrough agovernment backedbehavioural push canbeestablishednotonlythrough schemes, taxcredit suchastheones ordeduction The government canhelpnudgeconsumers towards theadoptionofnewtechnologies. This Encourage public acceptance andbehavioural change backdrop oflong-term demographic change. andstructural forthe publicsector thefuture againstthe challengesofsocialandfiscalsustainability possible a ‘24/7’ to householdsandbusinesses. AVs service delivery willbekeyto modernising care. Postal could berevolutionised services by theapplication ofAV technologies making they canbetter thepatient lookafter whoneedstreatment, personwhoneeds ortheelderly www.policy-network.net

policy network special report 64 |Freeing Shapingthefuture theRoad: for autonomous vehicles |November 2016 About theauthors leading role inEurope. pro-Europeantelevision heledthemainLabourParty organisation, campaigning for Britain’s adviser to theUKLeader Before oftheOppositioninrunupto the2015election. entering more thanadozen years asaBBCcurrent affairsprogramme makerbefore becoming asenior is the directorMatthew of Policy and an experienced Network broadcast who spent journalist Matthew Laza (ProMexico) EmbassyofLondon). (Mexican andindiplomacy (Elixium),indevelopmentworked banks(Nafinsa),in in financialstart-ups trade promotion understanding andquantifying violence trends governments. underauthoritarian Shealsohas College London. Previously, shewas aresearch assistant at King’s College London, on working researcherEugenia Sheholdsadiploma inPolitical isapolicy at Policy Network. Economy, King’s Eugenia Guerrero Office. Ireland the Cabinet Office, andtheNorthern government, ofBritish special adviserinvariousroles including10Downing Street, at theheart advisertoDowning minister. Street theprime andseniorpolicy Patrick has spent ten years asa ofPoliticsDepartment at theUniversity ofOxford. planningin10 Heistheformer headofpolicy of London; GwilymGibbonfellow at Nuffield College, Oxford; andavisiting fellow inthe inPublic Heislecturer ofPolicyPatrick Policy Network. at Mary, Queen University isco-chair Patrick Diamond He hasreceived theEdwin-von-Böventer prize for hiscontributions to regional science. transit, road congestion management policies, accident prevention transformation. andurban governments, European commission and international onthe firms cost and benefits of public issues. andurban Among others,in transportation hehasadvisedtheOECD, European Amsterdam. Heisalsothefounder AtAdlerAdvisory whichspecialises oftheconsultancy Adler isaneconomist research andworks asanexternal Martin advisorfor the VU University Adler Martin and international organisations inEurope, andAfrica. America andresearchedlectured ininternational politicsat anumberofuniversities, research institutes politics from theUniversity ofPotsdam andtheUniversity ofGreifswald, respectively. Hehas frameworks. andregulatory future labourmarkets ofwork, HeholdsadiplomaandPhD in Florian leadsPolicy Network’s work onEuropean policy, focusing onthepoliticaleconomy, Florian Ranft www.policy-network.net

policy network special report