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Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Report No: ICR00004988 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT TF0A4946 ON A SMALL GRANT Public Disclosure Authorized IN THE AMOUNT OF USD 4.90 MILLION TO THE The Islamic Republic of Pakistan FOR Strengthening Tax Systems and Building Tax Policy Analysis Capacity (P161463) February 4, 2020 Public Disclosure Authorized Governance Global Practice South Asia Region Public Disclosure Authorized Regional Vice President: Hartwig Schafer Country Director: Patchamuthu Illangovan Regional Director: Zoubida Kherous Allaoua Practice Manager: Ismaila B. Ceesay Task Team Leader(s): Charles Victor Blanco, Muhammad Waheed ICR Main Contributor: K. Migara O. De Silva ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BETF Bank Executed Trust Fund CPS Country Partnership Strategy EAD Economic Affairs Department EFF Extended Fund Facility FBR Federal Board of Revenue GDP Gross Domestic Product GoP Government of Pakistan IMF International Monitory Fund MDTF Multi Donor Trust Fund IP Implementation Progress ISR Implementation Status Report MMIU Market Monitoring and Intervention Unit MoF Ministry of Finance MS Moderately Satisfactory MU Moderately Unsatisfactory PAD Project Appraisal Document PDO Project Development Objective PRR Pakistan Raises Revenue PSDP Public Sector Development program RETF Recipient Executed Trust Fund TAGR Trust Fund for Accelerating Growth and Reforms TARP Tax Administration Reform Project TIU Tax Intelligence Unit TTL Task Team Leader WB World Bank TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 4 II. OUTCOME ...................................................................................................................... 7 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME .................................. 9 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .... 9 V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................. 10 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 12 ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 16 ANNEX 3. RECIPIENT, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ...... 17 ANNEX 4. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) ..................................................................... 20 The World Bank Strengthening Tax Systems and Building Tax Policy Analysis Capacity (P161463) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name Strengthening Tax Systems and Building Tax Policy P161463 Analysis Capacity Country Financing Instrument Pakistan Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency The Islamic Republic of Pakistan Federal Board of Revenue Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The PDO is to support policy informed decisions in domestic revenue mobilization. Key Results include 1) Produce annual comprehensive tax expenditure analysis 2) Forecast annual tax revenues of FBR and provincial governments Page 1 of 20 The World Bank Strengthening Tax Systems and Building Tax Policy Analysis Capacity (P161463) FINANCING FINANCE_TBL Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) Donor Financing TF-A4946 4,900,000 4,900,000 4,260,271 Total 4,900,000 4,900,000 4,260,271 Total Project Cost 4,900,000 4,900,000 4,260,271 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness Original Closing Actual Closing 28-Apr-2017 02-Aug-2017 30-Apr-2018 31-Aug-2019 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 19-Mar-2018 0.00 Change in Results Framework Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Procurement Change in Implementation Schedule 18-Apr-2019 0.28 Change in Results Framework Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Procurement Change in Implementation Schedule KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Modest RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 19-Sep-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 0.00 Page 2 of 20 The World Bank Strengthening Tax Systems and Building Tax Policy Analysis Capacity (P161463) Moderately 02 02-Aug-2018 Moderately Unsatisfactory 0.00 Unsatisfactory 03 04-Jun-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 0.28 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Annette Dixon Hartwig Schafer Country Director: Patchamuthu Illangovan Patchamuthu Illangovan Director: Deborah L. Wetzel Zoubida Kherous Allaoua Practice Manager: Alexandre Arrobbio Ismaila B. Ceesay Charles Victor Blanco, Task Team Leader(s): Charles Victor Blanco Muhammad Waheed ICR Contributing Author: K. Migara O. De Silva Page 3 of 20 The World Bank Strengthening Tax Systems and Building Tax Policy Analysis Capacity (P161463) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES Context 1. In Pakistan, domestic revenue mobilization has long been a key objective to financing sustainable development and providing the fiscal space to fund key public expenditures. The Government of Pakistan (GoP) recognizes the need for higher domestic revenue mobilization to ensure fiscal sustainability and fiscal space – as both are important for financing human capital development, infrastructure, health and other key public services. While Pakistan’s overall revenue mobilization has improved in recent years, several tax exemptions targeted towards specific industries and the low levels of tax collection by the provinces, among others, have led to a low tax-to-GDP ratio1. Pakistan’s Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) acknowledges that a tax-to-GDP ratio of 15 percent is achievable in the medium-term but will require a commensurate increase in the buoyancy of provincial tax bases2. 2. Pakistan’s economy grew at only 3.3 percent in Fiscal Year 2019 (FY19), with large financing received to correct fiscal imbalances. In FY18, there was a 5.5 percent consumption-driven growth while registering twin deficits. The exchange rate was then allowed to depreciate, the development budget was cut, and energy prices increased. To bridge the financing gap, the government received financing from the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and China, in addition to $6 billion from the IMF. 3. Pakistan registered a consolidated fiscal deficit (excluding grants) of 5.0 percent of the GDP, which is an increase of 0.7 percent from last fiscal year. A slowdown in revenue growth and rigidity in recurrent expenditures contributed to the increase in the fiscal deficit. While tax revenues increased by 2.8 percent in July-March FY19, non-tax revenues declined by almost 17 percent, wiping out any noticeable growth in overall revenues3. One of the challenges faced by the Government of Pakistan (GoP) is that its growth in expenditure outpaces the growth in revenue, thereby limiting the fiscal space to make some of the critical public investments in infrastructure, human capital development, health etc. For instance, in FY18, the total revenue registered a lower growth of 5.9 percent compared to the same in FY17 while the expenditure increased by 10.1 percent 4. Consequently, public investment continued to decelerate for the first time since FY115. 4. At the start of the Trust Fund for Accelerating Growth and Reforms (TAGR) project6, the FBR’s analytical and reporting capabilities remained weak while its poor automation and the excessive use of withholding mechanisms, inefficient organizational structure, weak governance and strategic planning, inter alia, challenged the FBR’s ability to operate as an effective tax administration7. TAGR was also set up to support the Government’s economic reform agenda by addressing the knowledge gaps and strengthening the capacity of key institutions to design and implement a reform 1 It remains less than 15 percent of the GDP, a level considered to be minimum for developing countries in order to be able to finance their basic government functions. See: UN Committee of International Experts on International Cooperation in Tax Matters, The Role of Taxation and Domestic Resource Mobilization in the Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals, October 2018, (page 3); V. Gaspar, L. Jaramillo and P. Wingender; and the IMF Working Paper 16/234, 2016, Tax Capacity and Growth: Is There a Tipping Point? (page 30). 2 Pakistan: Towards a Home-Grown Tax Reform Agenda, Federal Bureau of Revenue (FBR), October 8, 2018. 3 Pakistan Brief. Domestic Revenue Mobilization July 2019, World Bank 4 Provincial recurrent expenditure grew by 20 percent. 5 MDTF for Accelerating Growth and Reforms. Annual Report from July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019; page 6. 6 TAGR is the Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) for Accelerating Growth and Reforms. 7 FBR’s HR management also remains a challenging issue, making it difficult to attract and retain high quality staff while its staff turnover remains high especially at the management levels. Due to these weaknesses, implementation of reforms remains challenging (see: Multi-Donor TF Report, December 14, 2018. Page 4 of 20 The World Bank Strengthening Tax Systems and Building Tax Policy Analysis Capacity (P161463) agenda. It was built on lessons learned from the 2005-11 Tax