DAILY EXPRESS TUESDAY, DECEMBER 05, 2017 9 COMMENTARY

By James M. Dorsey Transition in the Middle East Transition to What? Transition is the name of the game in the Middle East and North Africa. The question is transition to what? Dominating the answer is an Arab autocratic push for a Saudi-led regional order that would be based on an upgraded 21st Century version of autocracy designed to fortify absolute rule. To achieve that, autocrats have embraced Attendees at a concert organized by the pro-independence Catalan National Assembly CreditJavier Barbancho /Reuters economic reform accompanied by necessary at the Olympic stadium in Barcelona this month. social change that would allow them to efficiently deliver public goods and services. By Albert Rivera It is an approach that rejects recognition of basic freedoms and political rights and is likely to produce more open and inclusive political systems that ensure that all segments of society We Catalans owe the world an have a stake. At the core of the volatile and often brutal and bloody battle that could take up to a quarter of a century is the determination of Arab autocrats to guarantee their survival at explanation whatever cost. Geopolitics plays a major role in Arabic autocratic ambition. To compensate for their inherent weakness and lack of the Many readers probably have a curso- every day the shutter on a smaller employ an even blunter slogan, “Spain the Constitution with arbitrariness; building blocks needed for sustainable regional ry notion of the recent turmoil plagu- homemade food venture. In recent robs us.” Still, Catalan separatists have judges are being pressured for doing dominance, Arab autocrats (except for Egypt, ing the autonomous Spanish region of weeks, my parents’ business has suf- been very smart. The movement has their jobs; the social climate has dete- the one Arab state with the potential of being a Catalonia. They will have seen large fered attacks by separatist radicals. taken the old exclusionary national- riorated to the point of dividing fami- demonstrations by both separatists Origin and socioeconomic status are ism, founded on the thesis of a cultural, lies and friends. Political instability has dominant, long-term regional player) need to and unionists. They may know, too, the variables that best explain seces- economic and linguistic difference, and also led to the exodus of thousands of contain first and foremost Iran, and to a lesser that following the illegal referendum sionism in my region: The higher the rebranded itself as peace-loving and businesses and a loss of tourism in Bar- degree Turkey. on independence, Catalan separatist income and deeper the Catalan roots, democratic. celona, one of the world’s most attrac- It is a geopolitical struggle, dominated by the politicians, with 47 % of the votes and the greater the separatist support; the Behind this makeover a sense of su- tive cities. rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which a majority in the Catalan Parliament, lower the income, particularly among premacy defines this movement. It is Fortunately, the Constitution al- has enveloped the Middle East and North Africa decided to suspend the laws concern- those with strong links to the rest of seen in the use over the past three dec- lows the national government to hold for almost four decades and progressively ing the region’s relationship with the Spain, the greater the preference for ades of propaganda in the public media democratic elections on December 21. undermined regional stability. central government. They then fraudu- a united Spain. This turns Catalan and in the education system, which has We Catalans will be able to vote in legal This has fuelled the rise of extremism and lently approved a transitory constitu- nationalism, traditionally conserva- been used as a brainwashing machine regional elections to put an end to this jihadism. It has also encouraged supremacist, tion and an act calling for an illegal tive and oligarchic, into a movement for the separatist movement started madness. Never before has a regional intolerant and anti-pluralistic tendencies far plebiscite on a plan for secession. through which those who have more five years ago. government done so much economic, beyond its borders in countries like Pakistan, Weeks later, the regional president, want to emancipate themselves from All this has been exacerbated by social and moral damage to Catalonia Malaysia, and Indonesia. And it is also what has Carles Puigdemont, declared unilat- the rest. both Socialist and conservative govern- as it has with Puigdemont and the de- turned it into the most volatile, repressive and eral independence, forcing the Span- It’s not trivial that a Catalan like me ments in Madrid. To obtain the support posed vice president Oriol Junqueras bloody part of the world. ish government to intervene to restore should have the honour of being a can- of the nationalist parties in the Spanish at the helm. Littered with the bodies of the dead and the constitutional order and to schedule didate for prime minister of Spain, a Congress of Deputies, they gradually Ciudadanos, the party I preside over, dying, countries like Syria, Iraq and Yemen have regional elections. Puigdemont, now fact that contrasts with the Francoist ceded privileges and authority to the began from a Catalan civil movement been scarred for generations to come. They are deposed, fled the country and is in Bel- and repressive caricature that the nationalist governments in Catalonia representing a majority of Catalans si- struggling to ensure territorial integrity against gium trying to rally support from other separatists try to sell of Spain. In fact, without supervision or coordination. lenced by Catalan nationalism. Today European countries, while Spain has the Spanish Constitution, approved Catalan nationalists have also persis- we are the leading opposition party in potential secessionist ethnic, regional and issued an international warrant for his in 1978, was endorsed with 91 % sup- tently promoted the idea of a referen- Catalonia, and a national and Europe- religious challenges. arrest. Aware that no European coun- port in Catalonia, and two of the seven dum. Those of us opposed to the plebi- an party aspiring to govern Spain. Possible US-backed Saudi efforts to destabilize try will support his demands, last week founders of the Constitution were Cat- scite believe that not all democratic As most Spaniards do, a majority of Iran with attempts to stir ethnic unrest carry the he said that Catalans should decide if alans. principles can be put to popular vote. Catalans want to participate in a com- clear risk of the Islamic republic and Pakistan their region should leave the European In 1979 Spain was a young constitu- Civil rights are not negotiable. Millions mon project for the future of Spain. becoming the next victims. Countries such as Union. tional monarchy seeking integration of Catalans cannot be deprived of their I cannot resign myself to seeing Lebanon already teeter on the brink. Readers probably do not, however, with Western Europe. Today it is one Spanish and European citizenship an isolated Catalonia in a globalized Restive populations hang in the balance, have a clear understanding of how this of the most important economies of while national sovereignty is dissolved, world, nor can I resign myself to seeing hoping that their continued surrender has come to pass in a prosperous Euro- the European Union, as well as one of and with it the right of all Spaniards to more borders in the era of open socie- of political rights in new social contracts pean democracy known for its freedom, the most decentralized countries with decide together on the future of Spain. ties. unilaterally drafted by autocratic leaders will tolerance and largely self-governed au- the highest standards of democracy, On occasion, the federal government Faced with those who promote rup- bring them greater economic opportunity. tonomous regions. We Catalans owe freedom and social welfare rates in the of the United States has also had to in- ture, I demand dialogue. Faced with In some countries like Egypt, expectations the world an explanation. world. tervene to safeguard the rights of mi- exclusion, I ask for coexistence; fed- have been dashed. In others such as Saudi I was born in Barcelona in 1979. My But in Catalonia we are facing a se- nority groups who have been trampled eralism and union, not provincialism Arabia, expectations are unrealistic and poorly, father is Catalan, the son of a family of rious social fracture. Catalan national- underfoot. President John F. Kennedy and division; the rule of law, not arbi- if at all, managed. The successful and brutal merchants, and my mother was born ism has grown notably in recent years, said in 1962, also in a context of diso- trariness; and pluralism and freedom Saudi and UAE-led counterrevolution has killed in Andalusia to a humble and hard- spurred by a decade-long economic bedience and rights violations by local against dogma and imposition. hopes and popular energy that exploded onto working family. In the early 1970s, like crisis and corruption scandals that government, that citizens are “free to I was born in Barcelona. Catalonia the streets of the Arab cities during the revolts of millions of Andalusians, they moved have generated mistrust in political disagree with the law, but not to diso- is my homeland, Spain is my country, to Catalonia in search of opportunities institutions. The separatist movement bey it,” and that, in a country where the and Europe is our future. 2011 and produced tyrants and mayhem. and to pursue their dreams. My parents parallels populist movements in other courts and the Constitution are chal- For now, it has all but erased popular will to met in Barcelona, where they married. Western countries in response to glo- lenged, “no law would stand free from Albert Rivera is the president of risk challenging autocratic rule that has failed to In 1989, they started their own busi- balization and its economic and politi- doubt, no judge would be sure of his the Ciudadanos party and a candidate deliver or that has created expectations that may ness, which allowed them to live com- cal challenges: “Subsidized Spain lives writ, and no citizen would be safe from for prime minister of Spain. This arti- prove difficult to meet. fortably. Three years ago, the economic at the expense of productive Catalonia” his neighbours.” cle originally appeared on nytimes. Autocratic regimes in the Middle East and crisis drowned the family company, read an electoral poster from Puigde- This is what is happening in Catalo- com North Africa are, for now, riding high. They are and today my mother and aunt raise mont’s political party; separatists also nia. Separatist leaders would replace buffeted by five potent facts on the ground. First, the ability to divert public attention with promises of economic change. Second, the By Mia Swart specter of Iran as a foreign threat. Third, US support for regional autocrats and, fourth, the related containment of Iran. The fifth factor is the fuelling of ethnic and sectarian tension. Why signs for transitional justice in Zimbabwe At best, that strategy buys Arab autocrats time. The risk is festering and new wounds that are likely to come to haunt them. Four decades of global Saudi propagation of Sunni Muslim ultra- don’t look promising conservativism has turned Arab Shiites and their militias into potent political and military forces. When the first reports appeared of large-scale past abuses with a view to may also include senior ruling party of- gitimacy. Unlike the wave of transitions The spectre of the Houthis organizing military tanks approaching Zimba- ensuring accountability, serving justice ficials detained by the military as well from socialism to democracy in Central themselves on the border of Saudi Arabia on the bwe’s capital, Harare, questions started and achieving reconciliation. as those who are currently overseas. and Eastern Europe in the late 1980s model of Lebanon’s Hezbollah is but the latest flooding my mind: would this mean a It encompasses issues such as This immunity agreement creates and early 1990s the Zimbabwean tran- example. transition in power? And would it be whether the perpetrators of serious hu- grave doubts about the legitimacy of sition, at this stage, does not look as if it a transition of the kind regarded as man rights violations under a previous the foundation on which the new Zim- has the potential to truly liberate Zim- Autocratic self-preservation and the Saudi- “model” transitions – transition from regime should be prosecuted or par- babwe will be built. babwean citizens and to convey them Iranian rivalry, coupled with disastrous US dictatorship to democracy? doned. It also involves looking at repa- It’s clear that the agreement violates into a state in which human rights are policies, including the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Ever since it became clear that Emm- rations, institutional reform, public international law. Under Mugabe’s rule supreme. have wracked countries across the region. erson Mnangagwa would be inaugurat- recognition of violations and whether opposition supporters suffered harass- Former Zimbabwe finance minister This has fostered a generation of Syrians and ed as the next president, there are fears and how investigations should be ini- ment, intimidation, forced removal and and opposition party member Ten- Yemenis that is likely to be consumed by anger that the country wouldn’t go through tiated to uncover the truth about past death. Crimes against humanity were dai Biti said in a recent interview with and frustration with their human suffering. a genuine transition, that one dictator violations. also committed. There are also strong South Africa’s Sunday Times that there Equally troubling, this translates at best into might simply replace another as was It’s still unclear whether Zimbabwe allegations that Mugabe ordered his was no point in prosecuting Mugabe. a slow rebuilding of their shattered countries. the case in Egypt. will manage an effective transition to opponents to be tortured. Internation- He said: “We cannot let the past con- After all, the very existence of these countries Transitional justice is a term coined participatory democracy and freedom. al law holds that to be guilty of torture, tinue to hold the future, and Mugabe is in their current form and borders is quite by the scholar Ruti Teitel in 1990. But the current signs are not encourag- it isn’t necessary that a person should in the past… He must be given the right She defined it as a form of justice that ing. have directly participated in torture. of free passage.” uncertain. could address the legacy of human After three decades of state spon- Ordering torture is sufficient to war- But Mugabe does not deserve a In short, transition, in the Middle East and rights violations and violence during sored violence, there is an acute need rant conviction. “right of free passage.” To award him North Africa has deteriorated into a battle for a society’s transition from an authori- to break the culture of impunity that There are other reasons to doubt this right would be to make a mockery retention of political control. It constitutes a tarian regime to a democratic one. has become entrenched in Zimbabwe. whether Zimbabwe’s new leadership of the principles of international law, struggle for the future of the region. Transitional justice refers to the ways The steady erosion of human and po- is interested in pursuing transitional transitional justice and the ongoing With near certainty, it will produce more in which countries emerging from pe- litical rights has further led to a lack of justice. For example, would they be suffering of millions of Zimbabweans. conflict as well as black swans that could create riods of conflict and repression address faith in the rule of law. prepared to look back at post-inde- Biti emphasised the importance of even more havoc long before it yields sustainable large scale human rights violations so Early excitement about prospects of pendence crimes such as the Gukura- economic growth and transformation. solutions. The transition towards equitable numerous and serious that the normal transitional justice in Zimbabwe has hundi massacre in Matabeleland that As a former finance minister he should economic development and transparent and justice system is unable to provide an already been dampened by the agree- claimed the lives of 20 000 people? know that financial prosperity cannot accountable rule of law will take a very long adequate response. ment struck between the military and Given Mnangagwa’s prominent role in be separated from social cohesion and time. Transitional justice has become a the outgoing president. The deal en- this massacre it’s highly unlikely that respect for the rule of law. vital part of modern peace building ef- tails exempting Robert Mugabe from official attempts will be undertaken to forts alongside disarmament, security prosecution for crimes committed dur- uncover the truth of this massacre. Mia Swart is a professor of inter- James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at sector reform and elections. The Unit- ing his 37 years in office. The immu- Measured against the South African national law at the University of Jo- the S. Rajaratnam School of International ed Nations views it as the full range of nity deal reportedly covers numerous transition, it is already clear that the hannesburg. This article was original- Studies, Singapore and an award-winning processes associated with a society’s at- members of Mugabe’s extended family, “transition in Zimbabwe” is imperfect. ly published in The Conversation journalist. This article was originally tempt to come to terms with a legacy of including his stepson and nephews. It This is because it lacks democratic le- featured on the globalist.com