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Exposure to Coastal Flooding

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Exposure to Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding Exposure Under Future Sea-level Rise for New Zealand Prepared for The Deep South Challenge Prepared by: Ryan Paulik Scott Stephens Sanjay Wadhwa Rob Bell Ben Popovich Ben Robinson For any information regarding this report please contact: Ryan Paulik Hazard Analyst Meteorology and Remote Sensing +64-4-386 0601 [email protected] National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd Private Bag 14901 Kilbirnie Wellington 6241 Phone +64 4 386 0300 NIWA CLIENT REPORT No: 2019119WN Report date: March 2019 NIWA Project: DEPSI18301 Quality Assurance Statement Reviewed by: Dr Michael Allis Formatting checked by: Patricia Rangel Approved for release by: Dr Andrew Laing © All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced or copied in any form without the permission of the copyright owner(s). Such permission is only to be given in accordance with the terms of the client’s contract with NIWA. This copyright extends to all forms of copying and any storage of material in any kind of information retrieval system. Whilst NIWA has used all reasonable endeavours to ensure that the information contained in this document is accurate, NIWA does not give any express or implied warranty as to the completeness of the information contained herein, or that it will be suitable for any purpose(s) other than those specifically contemplated during the Project or agreed by NIWA and the Client. Contents Executive summary ............................................................................................................. 6 1 Context for estimating coastal flooding exposure with rising seas ............................. 14 1.1 Coastal flooding processes in a changing climate .................................................. 14 1.2 National and regional coastal flooding exposure ................................................... 16 2 Methods .................................................................................................................. 17 2.1 Coastal Flood Mapping ........................................................................................... 17 2.2 Exposure mapping of elements at risk ................................................................... 26 3 Results .................................................................................................................... 30 3.1 LIDAR DEM .............................................................................................................. 30 Coastal flooding exposure from sea-level rise .................................................................. 49 3.2 National DEM .......................................................................................................... 51 3.3 Combined national Exposure to ESL1 + 3m Sea-Level Rise .................................... 55 4 Discussion and conclusions ...................................................................................... 58 4.1 Applying Coastal Flood Exposure Information ....................................................... 58 4.2 Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 62 5 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................. 63 6 Glossary of abbreviations and terms ........................................................................ 66 7 References ............................................................................................................... 68 Appendix A MHWS-10 heights around New Zealand ............................................ 70 Appendix B Local MSL offsets .............................................................................. 74 Appendix C Digital Appendix Contents ................................................................ 75 Tables Table 1-1: National and regional level exposure of elements at risk to ESL1 for present-day MSL on land with available LIDAR DEM coverage. 8 Table 1-2: National and regional level exposure of elements at risk to ESL1 +0.3 m SLR above present-day MSL on land with available LIDAR DEM coverage. 9 Table 1-3: National and regional level exposure of elements at risk to ESL1 +0.6 m SLR above present-day MSL on land with available LIDAR DEM coverage. 10 Coastal Flooding Exposure Under Future Sea Level Rise for New Zealand Table 1-4: National and regional level exposure of elements at risk to ESL1 +0.9 m SLR above present-day MSL on land with available LIDAR DEM coverage. 11 Table 1-5: National and regional level exposure of elements at risk to ESL1 +1.2 m SLR above present-day MSL on land with available LIDAR DEM coverage. 12 Table 1-6: Combined national and regional level element exposure for ESL1 +3 m above present-day MSL (where SLR is calculated in meters above 1986-2005 baseline) on land with available LIDAR DEM and satellite DEM coverage. 13 Table 2-1: Summary of methods used to calculate MHWS-10 and ESL1 levels. 19 Table 2-2: Use categories reported for New Zealand buildings. 27 Table 2-3: A summary of 'three-waters' node types included in this study. 28 Table 2-4: Reported land cover categories from Land Cover Database Version 4.1. 28 Table 3-1: A summary of national level element exposure to ESL1 at present-day MSL and future SLR scenarios (where SLR is calculated in meters above 1986-2005 baseline) on land with available LIDAR DEM coverage. 31 Table 3-2: National level element exposure estimated for +0.1 m SLR increments. ‘Greyed’ values are above or equal to the mean increment exposure per +0.1 m SLR. Airports and sites are excluded due to their small datasets. 32 Table 3-3: National level element exposure for ESL1 0-3 m above present-day MSL (where SLR is calculated in meters above 1986-2005 baseline) on land with Satellite DEM coverage (i.e. LIDAR DEM coverage unavailable). 54 Table 3-4: Combined national and regional level element exposure for ESL1 +3 m above present-day MSL (where SLR is calculated in meters above 1986-2005 baseline) on land with available LIDAR DEM and satellite DEM coverage. 56 Table 4-1: Approximate years, from possible earliest to latest, when specific SLR increments (metres above 1986–2005 baseline) could be reached for projected SLR scenarios in the New Zealand region (adapted from Table 11 from MfE, 2017). 60 Figures Figure 1-1: Schematic diagram of tidal, weather and climate components contributing to extreme sea-levels and storm-induced coastal flooding. 15 Figure 2-1: New Zealand coastline showing designated as estuarine or open (sheltered or exposed) coastlines for modelled wave setup elevations in extreme sea-level analysis. 19 Figure 2-2: Linear relationship between MHWS and 1% AEP storm-tide derived from New Zealand sea-level gauges. 20 Figure 2-3: Estimated ESL1 levels around the New Zealand coastline. 22 Figure 2-4: LIDAR DEM coverage for New Zealand’s coastline (Note: Satellite DEM provides nationwide coverage). 23 Figure 2-5: Comparison of coastal inundation in Tauranga Harbour estimated from dynamic (left) and bathtub models (right). 25 Figure 2-6: Comparison of coastal inundation in Poverty Bay (Gisborne District) estimated from dynamic (left) and bathtub models (right). Note the larger coastal inundation extent created by the bathtub model. 25 Figure 3-1: National and regional level population exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast region). 33 Coastal Flooding Exposure Under Future Sea Level Rise for New Zealand Figure 3-2: National and regional level building exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast region). 34 Figure 3-3: National and regional level building replacement value (2016 $NZD Billion) exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast region). 35 Figure 3-4: National and regional level road exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast region). 36 Figure 3-5: National and regional level railway exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast region). 37 Figure 3-6: National and regional level airport exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast region). 38 Figure 3-7: National and regional level electricity transmission line (‘transline’) exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast region). 39 Figure 3-8: National and regional level electricity structure exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast region). 40 Figure 3-9: National and regional level electricity site exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast region). 41 Figure 3-10: National and regional level three-waters infrastructure node exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast and Canterbury regions). 42 Figure 3-11: National and regional level three-waters infrastructure pipeline exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast region). 43 Figure 3-12: National and regional level built land exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast region). 44 Figure 3-13: National and regional level production land exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast region). 45 Figure 3-14: National and regional level natural or undeveloped land exposure for land areas with LIDAR DEM coverage (No data available for West Coast region). 46 Figure 4-1: New Zealand
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