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Volkswirtschaftliche Tagung 2003 31St Economics Conference 2003

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Volkswirtschaftliche Tagung 2003 31St Economics Conference 2003 √ Oesterreichische Nationalbank 31. Volkswirtschaftliche Tagung 2003 31st Economics Conference 2003 Die Förderung des Wirtschaftswachstums in Europa Fostering Economic Growth in Europe Inhalt Contents Klaus Liebscher Opening Statement 5 Klaus P. Regling Institutional Arrangements in the EU: Scenarios for the Future 11 Lucas Papademos The Contribution of Monetary Policy to Economic Growth 23 Michael Mussa How to Strengthen Growth in Europe? 41 Robert A. Mundell Economic Recovery and the Euro: What Else Is Necessary? 53 Wol f g a n g S c h u‹ ssel Ero‹ffnungsstatement 61 Tagungsblock 1: Warum hinkt das Wirtschaftswachstum in Europa nach? Session 1: Why Does European Growth Lag? Nicholas F. R. Crafts Prospects for European Economic Growth: A Historical Perspective 69 Norbert Zimmermann Why Is Growth in Europe Lagging Behind? 85 Josef Zweimu‹ ller, Reto Foellmi Inequality and Economic Growth: European Versus U.S. Experiences 89 Bernhard Felderer Comments on Nicholas F. R. Crafts, Prospects for European Economic Growth: A Historical PerspectiveÓ Norbert Zimmermann, Why Is Growth in Europe Lagging Behind? Josef Zweimu‹ller and Reto Foellmi, Inequality and Economic Growth: European Versus U.S. Experiences 107 Tagungsblock 2: Arbeitsma‹rkte und Wirtschaftswachstum in Europa: Wo besteht Handlungsbedarf? Session 2: European Labor Markets and Economic Growth: What Needs to Be Done? Jean-Philippe Cotis Reforming European Labour Markets: The Unfinished Agenda 113 Karl Pichelmann Labour Market Reform in the EU: Progress and Remaining Challenges 121 Karl Aiginger The Contribution of Labour Market Reforms, Macroeconomic Policy and Growth Drivers to Economic Growth 139 2 Inhalt Contents Tagungsblock 3: Investitionen und Wirtschaftswachstum: Perspektiven der Industrie Session 3: Investment and Economic Growth: Views from Industry Hannes Androsch Eine tragfa‹hige Investitionsstrategie fu‹r Europa 151 Josef Taus Wirtschaftswachstum, Finanzkapital und Investitionen 159 Kamingespra‹ch / Evening Discussion Karl-Heinz Grasser Topical Budgetary and Fiscal Issues 169 Tagungsblock 4: Fiskalpolitisches Statement und Podiumsdiskussion: Reformerfahrungen im o‹ffentlichen Sektor Session 4: Fiscal Policy Statement and Panel Discussion: Experience with Public Sector Reform Vito Tanzi, Ludger Schuknecht Public Finances and Economic Growth in European Countries 178 Jon Cunliffe Comments on Vito Tanzi and Ludger Schuknecht, Public Finances and Economic Growth in European Countries 197 Jens Henriksson The Use of Fiscal Rules in Sweden 205 Martti Hetema‹ ki Experience with Public Sector Reform in Finland 210 Kees van Dijkhuizen The Use of Fiscal Rules in the Netherlands 212 Tagungsblock 5: Finanzma‹rkte und Wirtschaftswachstum Session 5: Financial Markets and Economic Growth Mario I. Blejer Financial Stability and Economic Growth 217 Manfred J. M. Neumann Comments on Mario I. Blejer, Financial Stability and Economic Growth 227 Klaus Liebscher Concluding Remarks 233 Mickey D. Levy Why Does the U.S. Grow Faster than the EU? Pro-Growth Suggestions for Closing Gap 239 Franz-Weninger-Stipendien / Franz Weninger Award 253 Die Vortragenden / Speakers 255 × 3 Klaus Liebscher Klaus Liebscher Governor Oesterreichische Nationalbank Opening Statement It is a pleasure to welcome you here in Vienna to the 31st Economics Confer- ence of the Oesterreichische National- bank (OeNB). Our topic this year is Fostering Economic Growth in Europe. Identifying the sources of economic growth is a research field which has attracted a lot of attention recently. But it is also a highly political issue. I am very pleased that our Economics Conference has attracted great interest. We have received some 300 registrations from top representa- tives in the fields of politics, science, academia, central and commercial banking and the media. Of course, this conference could not be held without an array of extra- ordinarily distinguished speakers. Tobegin with, I have to inform you that the Chancellor of the Republic of Austria, Mr. Wolfgang Schu‹ssel, who wanted to give us the honor of present- ing the opening address for this confer- ence, had to cancel his attendance this morning due to a plenary session in Parliament. But I am very glad to say he will be with us at 2 p.m., starting the afternoon session. It is a privilege to announce the Director-General of DG-ECFIN of the European Commission, Mr. Klaus Regling, as our first keynote speaker. Mr.Reglingwillsketchpossiblescenar- ios for the future institutional arrange- ments in the EU. Mr. Regling, a very warm welcome to Vienna, and to our conference. Klaus Liebscher I am alsovery happy to have my dear economies like the U.S. economy. This and esteemed colleague, Mr. Lucas tendency is particularly pronounced Papademos,VicePresidentoftheEuro- in the larger European economies. peanCentralBank(ECB),asoursecond According to the OECD1), the average keynote speaker to discuss how mon- annual growth rate of U.S. real per etary policy can contribute to eco- capita GDP was 3.2% during the nomic growth. Also a very warm wel- 1990s. In the European Union, per come to you, Lucas, here in Vienna. capita GDP growth was on average And last but not least it is a great only 2%. pleasure to announce Michael Mussa It can of course be argued that from the Institute for International different growth rates are not necessa- Economics as our third keynote rily a bad thing and that welfare speaker. Professor Mussa will talk implications depend strongly on the sources of the growth differentials. It is certainly possible that the low growth rates in Europe are due to a high preference for leisure or high risk aversion. In this case, slow growth in Europe would not necessarily imply that welfare — defined in some broad sense, including the overall quality of life — is low in Europe compared to about How to Strengthen Growth in faster-growing economies. However, Europe? — a topic that goes straight slow growth might also be the conse- to the heart of this conference. A cor- quence of a suboptimal economic and dial welcome to you, Michael. institutional framework. In this case, I am very pleased to welcome Mrs. it would be involuntary, not the result Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, former of different preferences. Indeed, many Vice Governor of the OeNB and since economists argue that structural JunethisyearExecutiveBoardMember rigidities are a major reason behind of the ECB. Following yesterdays fare- the observed growth differentials, well reception for you at the OeNB, we and that structural policies are needed appreciate it very much that you will to create an environment of higher join us this morning here, as many productivity growth. Finding more of the preparations of this conference clear-cut answers to the sources behind still have your as we say in German the growth divide is key and will have Handschrift.So,thankyouverymuch important implications for European andaverywarmwelcome.Wewishyou economic policy. all the best in your new function in Over the last 50 years, Europe has Frankfurt. grown into an integrated market of Especially in Europe, interest in the around 300 million people. The topicwehavechosenforourEconomics creation of the Single Market in Conference is understandably high, 1992 has increased trade in goods since in recent years, European real and services among the EU Member per capita GDP stopped converging States. The euro has lowered transac- to the levels observed in fast-growing tion costs, sharply reduced risk premia, 1 The Sources of Economic Growth, OECD 2003. 6 Klaus Liebscher and increased price transparency. labor force participation rates and the These developments have certainly high unemployment rates typical of increased competition and should many European countries are major enhance productivity growth. The factors in explaining the mediocre European financial markets are now growthperformanceofmanyEuropean well integrated and stable, and the countries. payment systems work smoothly, There is widespread consensus that ensuring a smooth flow of funds from structural reforms are necessary to in- savings to investment. On the macro- crease the flexibility of the European economic side, the stability-oriented labor markets in order to create new monetary policy of the Eurosystem jobs. Tax and benefit systems have to ensures that the price signaling mech- be reshaped such that incentives are anism can operate fully. created for an increased supply of labor Despite temporary setbacks, also quite recently, the Stability and Growth Pact has successfully prompted a rever- sal from the previously persisting high government deficits and rising debt ratiostoageneralawarenessoftheneed for sound fiscal positions. When we look at these overall favorable developments over the last decade or so, it appears puzzling that by households and also for increased the European economies — with a few demand by businesses. Marginal tax exceptions — have not seen an increase rates have already been cut in some in real incomes similar to that in the countries and these reforms have U.S.A., for instance. Why did more started to show some effect. intense competition after the creation Another issueistheflexibilityofthe of the Single Market and the euro not European labor force. Various studies prompt a rise in potential growth rates show that labor force mobility in the likethattheUnitedStatesexperienced? U.S.A. is more than twice as high as And, are those economists who predict in Europe. Besides increasing labor that this growth differential is likely to force
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