16 Jan 2019 Securities Analysis Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK) Travel at your fingertip China 3rd largest OTA surfing on the Super App era. Tongcheng-Elong ranked Top 3 among Chinese OTAs with 9.8% market share (by GMV) in 2017, and BUY (Initiation) delivered the highest YoY growth in FY15-17 in no. of online transportation ticketing and accommodation reservation transactions in China, according to iResearch. Backed by a large and engaged user base, extensive relation with TSPs Target Price HK$18.59 and tech-driven innovations, we forecast Tongcheng-Elong to deliver 30%/ 37% Up/downside +54.9% revenue/ net profit CAGR during FY18-20E, thanks to robust MAU growth, rising Current Price HK$12.00 paying ratio and re-purchase rate with merger synergy and services expansion. Sophie Huang Leveraging Tencent traffic to achieve cost-effective user reach. Powered by Tel: (852) 3900 0889 unique access to Weixin & QQ and long-term exclusive cooperation with Tencent Email:
[email protected] (until 2021), Tongcheng-Elong can effectively reach and retain a vast and Equity ResearchEquity engaged user base, in our view. Noted that Tongcheng-Elong ranked Top 1 Gary Pang among Weixin mini programs in Oct 2018, according to Aladdin index. We Tel: (852) 3900 0882 estimate its MAU to grow at 18% CAGR in FY18-20E and reach 240mn in FY20E, Email:
[email protected] driven by 1) Tencent-based traffic; 2) tapping into large addressable market in lower-tier cities; and 3) increasing diversified marketing efforts. China Internet Sector Bearing initial fruits from merger synergies with cross-selling.