Nigel Twiston-Davies, and It Is No Secret He Starts Quickly

Editor's Welcome The problem with the magazine publishing business is that you are always looking ahead and thinking about the following months.

So right now I see sunshine out of my window but I'm thinking about National Hunt racing and the coming autumn and winter.

On the bright side there is a lot of money to be won with early season jumps trainers and that is why we have a lot of research into this phenomenon this month.

And this month that includes research from somebody who knows that September and October are highly profitable and that is Ben Aitken of Narrowing The Field.

Ben is with us for the next three months which for him is the highlight of the year and where he makes most of his profit. Do check out his website for profitable tips http://narrowing-the- field.co.uk

Nick also has updated his research into early season jumps trainers to uncover some profitable angles as has Wendy.

The fact is that when three experts independently focus on the same type of strategy you know there must be profit to be found there.

Elsewhere we have an interview with the only tipster with a Masters Degree in International Politics, which is obviously crucial to a successful punting career!

I'm talking about John Burke who is the brains behind the Victor Value service.

And if you are into the Irish racing scene, and you should be, we have a more detailed look at the Declan O'Donoghue tipping service.

I hope you enjoy this month’s issue.

All the best.

Darren Power

Early Season Jumps Trainers

September sees the flat season winding down and the jumps season kicking in and it is often a difficult time for punters. There are several reasons for this.

Firstly, the jumps season early runners will not have any seasonal collateral form for you to look at and things like fitness and wellbeing need to be taken on trust. For the flat runners, many will have had a hard season, others may be handicapped up to their best and it is difficult to know what to expect. There are many strange results under both codes at this time of the year. However, historical trainer performance is one indicator that can be used during this difficult time and we looked at trainers that do well at the end of the flat season in last month’s article.

As a companion to that article I am going to take a look at the trainers it has paid to follow in the early months of the jumps season.

Some are well known and we will look at whether the bookies have cramped the odds on their runners in response to their known performance in these early stages of the season. Some are less well known and they could be the ones to keep an eye on before the rest of the industry decides to sit up and take note.

We begin with the obvious one, Nigel Twiston-Davies, and it is no secret he starts quickly.

The question that needs answering is whether his runners are still profitable to follow despite it being well known that his string is always fit and ready to go.

So, let’s see what the numbers tell us.

Nigel Twiston-Davies The first thing to note about NTD is that last season was his best early start for quite a while.

He saddled 28 winners from 92 runners (30% strike rate) and produced level stakes profit at Betfair SP to the tune of £25.79. Those figures represent his highest number of winners since 2010 and 2007 (when he scored with 27 runners) and his highest strike rate since 2007.

Good news for punters.

His yearly breakdown looks like this:

Do not be alarmed by the P/L of £0 in 2003 to 2007 as Horse Race Base does not have the data for Betfair SP when Betfair was in its infancy.

The good news is that NTD early season runners have been profitable to follow in all bar 3 of the season since 2003, using industry SP as the guide (which is really a worst-case scenario).

Seeing as Betfair SP is relevant and industry SP is not (in my opinion) we shall stick to 2008 to 2016 for the rest of the analysis of the NTD runners.

That leaves the following numbers:

OK, so with that out of the way let us take a closer look at the results to see if we can unearth any patterns or angles that could give us an edge in the next two months.

First, I want to see where he sends his early season runners to best effect so I have broken down the results by course.

Trainers are a creature of habit and they will often target the same meetings and the same courses year in year out.

In terms of the number of winners then Uttoxeter and Perth come in at the top of the list with 25 winners and 21 winners respectively. Next up is Stratford with 14 winners and Cheltenham with 13 winners. Combining those four tracks gives us 73 winners out of the 172 winners in September and October since 2008. Not bad going by any stretch of the imagination.

Looking closer we see that Uttoxeter has been kindest to punters with 25 winners coming from just 74 runners at a strike rate of 34% and a level stakes profit at Betfair SP of £105.77. The Perth runners have a decent strike rate (25%) but show an overall loss. The Cheltenham runners have a 15% strike rate and show a nominal profit but the Stratford runners show a fantastic profit of £134.59 from a 23% strike rate.

Other courses worthy of a mention are Kempton where his runners are 7-11 since 2008 and are actually 7 wins from the 9 most recent runners. However, three of those 7 wins came courtesy of The New One and two from Fond Memory so I would not read too much into the bare figures.

The one thing we can do to try and make NTD more profitable is to ditch his early season bumper runners. There are typically overbet as the figures below show:

The strike rate is good (17%) and not far off that of the hurdlers (20%) but backing these runners has incurred losses since 2008. That still leaves us with 161 winners in the last 9 seasons in the months of September and October.

Now I want to look at the split between September and October for the NTD hurdlers and chasers and the results are quite interesting:

The strike rates are very similar but the number of runners in October is over twice the amount the yard sends out in September. More importantly, the level stakes profit and return on investment from the October runners is significantly better.

If you want, you can hold off backing the NTD runners until October as this is when he makes most of his profit.

Next, I want to look at jockeys.

Son, Sam Twiston-Davies, is now stable jockey to Paul Nicholls but he still takes a fair few rides for his Dad. They combined in the months of September and October for 9 winners from 26 rides in 2016 and combined for 5 winners from 35 rides in 2015. However, those years only just eked out a marginal profit and it may pay to look elsewhere.

The two to concentrate on are Jamie Bargary and Ryan Hatch.

Last year alone these two riders teamed up with NTD for 13 winners from 45 rides for a profit of £27.79 at Betfair SP.

In fact, these two in combination with NTD have made a profit every year since 2012 in the months of September and October. I expect more success again this year.

Daryl Jacob rode 4 winners for NTD last season in the early months and they came from just 8 rides so look out for that combination again this year. Six of those runners and all four winners went off as favourite. Looking at handicap and non-handicap races, winners come in equal measures from both race types. Both sets of runners have been profitable since 2008.

There are any number of possible angles to use for the NTD runners in September and October.

Expect Ryan Hatch and Jamie Bargary to be on board for most of the runners and Daryl Jacob and Sam Twiston-Davies to take the rides on the better horses in the higher-class races.

Whichever way you cut it, Nigel Twiston-Davies is a trainer to be taken very seriously in the early part of the jumps season.

Paul Nicholls Some may not be surprised about Paul Nicholls being up there but he is not one that is usually worth following early doors.

He made a nice profit in 2008 with 21 winners from 62 runners (+30.29pts) but then the next 7 years was a mixed bag of break even and losing years. There was a definite step change in 2016 when Nicholls sent out a record number of 80 runners in September and October (compared to the usual 50 to 60) and no fewer than 34 of these won. They came at a win rate of 42.5% and produced profits of £25.66 at Betfair SP.

Looking closely at the 2016 runners we find that they were 6 from 6 at Wincanton, 4 from 5 at Fontwell, 4 from 8 at Cheltenham, 5 from 18 at Chepstow and 5-11 at Newton Abbot so keep an eye out for this runners at these tracks in 2017 in September and October.

Perhaps the most interesting angle for the Nicholls runners is the split between handicap and non-handicap races:

As you can see, the handicappers have a 50% lower strike rate compared to the non-handicap runners and also make a loss at Betfair SP. This pattern was also seen in 2016 when the non- handicappers returned with a record of 26-52. That is a hefty 50% strike rate and they produced a profit of £21.47 at Betfair SP. That accounts for almost all the profit in 2016 from his early season runners.

Novice races are the non-handicap races where Nicholls excels. In the last three years, he is 28-63 in such contests for a profit of £27.81. That does not equate to much profit from such a high number of winners and such a higher strike rate, but remember that these are Paul Nicholls runners and they are often well backed.

If you want a steady flow of winners at low prices then you could do worse than follow his early season novice runners.

No surprise to see that Ruby Walsh rode 35 winners for Paul Nicholls in these early months since 2008 but that partnership is no more and so we look elsewhere.

Sam Twiston-Davies is stable jockey and rode a fair few to victory last season but watch out for Nicholl’s using up and coming conditionals such as Harry Cobden and Harry Derham to name but two. He is a master trainer when it comes to putting faith in up and coming young jockeys.

So, if you fancy a Nicholls runner in the first 6 weeks of the season you should get a nice few winners in novice races but do not expect big prices.

For our On Course Profit Gold members this month Nick picks up on another trainer who could offer up profit early doors and takes a look at a couple of early season Irish trainers worth keeping an eye on.

You can upgrade to On Course Profits Gold here... http://www.oncourseprofits.com/upgrade-to-gold/

If you'd like to bet alongside Dr Nick at all the big meetings this year, check out his Festival Tips service which made 481 points profit in 2016 - Click Here.

A Q and A with John Burke

1. Hi John and many thanks for joining us this month. First up would you tell us a little about yourself and your background? What attracted you to the world of horse racing?

Thanks, I am very pleased to be here.

The first is never an easy question to answer in a couple of sentences.

I have been a professional punter since 2013 and prior to that I was involved in face to face selling which is completely different to what I do now, where I can go for days without seeing anyone besides my partner. That has been the biggest culture shock. I have always been considered a ‘people person’. One interesting but probably irrelevant fact is that I have a MA in International Politics and began, but didn’t finish, a PhD in British Decolonisation. Maybe I am the only professional horse racing punter with an MA in International Politics?

My interest in horse racing began with the win of Dawn Run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 1986. My dad had a tidy ante-post bet on the mare to win the race and the expectation prior to the race and of course the race itself just ignited what became a passion for the sport.

The rest so to speak is history.

2. How would you describe your typical working day?

Get up at 6:30am and make a coffee. By 7am I am in my office in the spare bedroom and the first thing I do is to look at the BHA website to check the going and weather for the days racing. I then spend the next two hours or so writing my subscribers email.

After a short break I will spend the next three hours looking at the following days racing, identifying the races I will be looking to have a bet in, studying the form and looking at race replays. After another break for lunch and doing other jobs around the house or garden it’s usually the start of the days racing so time for Racing UK & At The Races, notebook & pen in hand and Befair open on the laptop. I will also spend a couple of hours each evening finalising my bets for the next day’s action. Then it’s a case of rinse and repeat for the next day!

3. What style of approach do you take to your betting on a personal level? What do you think of staking plans, loss retrieval systems etc.?

It’s probably obvious to many readers of this magazine but worth reiterating nonetheless, my approach to betting is to take on the favourite. Not every favourite but those ‘false favourites’.

I am always looking for that elusive bit of value in a race, I say elusive deliberately, as it’s becoming harder to find with betting markets becoming increasingly more efficient. I am a backer not really a layer but I do occasionally dabble on the exchange lay markets as well as an increasing, albeit small, amount of trading in my betting. That said most of my bets remain back bets.

I am a big fan of level stakes punting and I bet 2% of my original bank with the stakes increasing in line with the bank. As long you have a reasonable strike rate, with reasonable odds then this is still far and away the best staking plan. It may not be for everyone but it suits my betting psychology.

I think I could write a whole article on the various loss retrieval systems, like the Martingale for example. I think it was Alexander Dumas who said “The martingale is as elusive as the soul” and that just about sums up most loss retrieval strategies. I don’t use them but I have heard of punters who have had some success with them but there not for me. If someone can convince me of their utility I would be interested but they haven’t managed to do it so far.

4. What traits do you think a good racing tipster should possess and what do you think the average punter is looking for from a tipping service?

I think there are plenty of attributes needed to be a good racing tipster just like the professional punter but for the sake of brevity I will mention three, in no particular order:

Hard Work – Most successful tipsters/punters work very hard and will spend many hours analysing the form and their betting They will document everything, bets, wins and losses and they are able to learn from their mistakes and be able understand where they went wrong. The best learn from their mistakes and always remind themselves that there is no such thing as an ‘unlucky bet’.

Determination – It’s easy to deal with winning streaks. The question is how do you deal with a losing streak? How do you handle seeing you profits start to disappear? Determination means you don’t give up at the first hurdle, you have to ride the losing streaks and have the desire and ability to see it through!

Intuition - You can learn the mathematics of betting but intuition is something you can’t, you either have it or you don’t. Sometimes you look at a horse race and one horse just jumps out at you, call it a hunch, or intuition, but successful tipsters and punters have it.

If someone is paying for horse racing tips they want to profit from their betting, that’s the bottom line, if they are not making money from the service they will leave.

That said, they also want to know that the tipster they are with knows what he or she is talking about. So besides just putting up the name of the horse I am betting on I also like to give a full analysis of my thought process, which will hopefully help subscribers with their own betting performance.

5. We all know that tipping services of all types can hit losing runs. How do you suggest that punters handle these situations psychologically?

This question links in with what I mentioned earlier. It’s all about the mind-set. Punters have to think like the professional does. It’s not about winners it’s about the return on investment (ROI) and that ROI over a long term. You have to give a tipster at least three months to prove their worth and if you're serious probably a year. Losing streaks are inevitable and they can be long and painful. I always look back to what Hugh Taylor said on the At the Races TV channel; you can find it on YouTube, that if the average price of your bet is 10/1 then losing streaks of 30 bets or more are very common.

As a personal example I had two successive months of losses earlier this year and a few punters who joined the service during that period left. The following month all the losses of the previous two months were wiped out and a nice profit was made by those who stayed. It’s all about long term thinking not short termism, all that matters are my figures at the end of the year.

6. New and old punters alike can struggle to make a success of their betting. If you could give them just one piece of advice to improve their profitability what would it be?

Get the best price on your bets! Look at the odds comparison websites like Oddschecker. You wouldn’t buy a new laptop at the first shop you visit if you could get the same laptop for £100 less at a shop further down the road. Nor should you take the first price you see about your bet. Getting the best odds available is the key to profit from betting on horse racing or any sport for that matter.

7. The racing industry is often criticised for having too many races and poor quality meetings with insufficient prize monies to encourage entries etc. Is there anything that you would like to see changed within the horse racing industry and why?

Horse racing is at a bit of a crossroads. It will never be the mass sport like it was in the 1940s & 1950s and like football is today. It has to accept its future is being a niche sport or it’s doomed to irreversible decline.

How do we get young people interested in the sport to replace those at the older end of the age scale who are dying off, with so many other competing interests? How do they get the bug for racing like I did and those who read magazines like this? If I had the answers to those key questions I would be running horse racing in this country,

Many racecourses are actually doing a good job with their ladies days, live music nights, etc. and as much as I am not a fan of events like the Shergar Cup they do bring in 30k people, many of whom probably wouldn’t attended a normal meeting at Ascot. So plenty is being done on that front but more can be.

On a more controversial note, I am now in favour of a ban on the whip being used in horse racing. Whatever the wrongs and rights of whip use are it’s all about perception and hitting a horse to encourage it to run faster doesn’t sit easy to a more ‘squeamish’ generation. Why not let all jockeys use spurs after all they can also encourage a horse to go faster? Others will disagree with me but this one action would do more good for the sport from a PR perspective than anything else I can think of.

8. What about the gambling industry, is there anything you like to see changed there? Many website forums are full of criticisms of the bookmakers and their treatment of their customers? Is this something you have an opinion on?

Look at social media and racing forums, you can see this is the biggest talking point amongst punters and it’s one that I can talk about for hours but you will be glad to know I won’t on this occasion.

Closing of betting accounts isn’t really new but stake limitations have become a more disturbing trend. Back in the day bookies would have prided themselves on their willingness to accept a decent bet. Honour and pride were more important to them back then. Today’s bookmakers are merely accountants not bookmakers. The relaxation of betting regulations by the UK government in 2005 meant that high street bookmakers became no more than mini casinos with the introduction of fixed odds betting terminals (FOBT’s).

A step in the right direction would be for bookmakers to be obliged, as a requirement of their betting licence, to lay a bet up to a certain amount. There have been good steps in that direction in some states in Australia where punters are able to get bets on up to a certain amount on the day of the race. That needs to happen here and when it does we’ll see the return of a dynamic and thriving horse racing betting market in the UK. Until that day arrives, which will require more not less betting regulation from government, the only option open to winning punters is to bet on the exchanges and look for those that offer the best commission rates.

9. What would you consider to be a highlight of your racing experience to date? Do you have any personal racing / betting experiences which when reflecting back brings a smile, or for that matter any which bring a grimace; you can share with our readers?

Too many of the latter to mention here but they have usually involved not going with my intuition. The wins are always better to chat about and the highlights of those are backing Neptune Collonges, at 50/1 for the 2012 Grand National and what a heart stopping finish it was too. Equally as satisfying was backing a 50/1 winner in My First Blade at Southwell, a track I am not a great fan of betting at. However, the bet I will always remember, was my first ever one it was 20p round robin and two of three horses won. I had now got the horse racing betting bug!

10. What do you do to relax and unwind? What interests have you outside the world of horse racing?

I am a big history buff and love visiting cathedrals and ruined castles & abbeys, but probably nothing beats being on sun lounger on some tropical beach, good book in one hand, a cool drink in the other and just doing nothing that’s the ultimate relaxation for me.

Click Here to Try John Burke's Victor Value service for just £1

The History of The Champion Hurdle

Placing your first “real” bet and having it win is always one which will stick in the memory as a “good” one. Mine was back in March 2003 at the Cheltenham Festival.

I had been led astray by the OH and he said pick a horse, so I did. There was a grey horse running called Rooster Booster and well…I liked the name and… he was grey…yes that was my criteria for picking a horse at that time.

I had no idea what “price” he was I just backed him because I liked the look of him, and he went on to win the race easily by 11 lengths, and there started a love at that time for the Cheltenham Festival and an adoration for Rooster Booster, who sadly died 2 years later.

These days the Cheltenham Festival just doesn’t have the same attraction for me as it used to, but I will always remember both horse and race with a smile.

The race was The Smurfit Champion Hurdle.

The first recorded Champion Hurdle was held back in 1927 and won by a horse called Blaris who won for his team the then princely sum of £325. 2017 saw the prize money for the Champion Hurdle total £400,000.

The prestige of the race soon built with the second ever winner Brown Jack eventually moving from National Hunt to Flat racing following his win in the 1928 Champion Hurdle. More often flat horses will become hurdlers but Brown Jack went on to win such prestigious flat races as the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot, the Ebor Handicap, the Chester Cup and the Doncaster cup to name a few.

Open to four year old runners and older the race was run on the Old Cheltenham Course and as a test of stamina, having been run over a distance of 2 miles 110 yards. As well as speed and jumping ability the horses as they hit the final climb up the hill at the end of the race to the winning line need guts and true staying ability.

It has been rare to see any of the race days abandoned at Cheltenham, and whatever the weather the meeting usually goes ahead and the race goers arrive. It did succumb to the ravages of the weather in 1931 due to a very hard frost, but the only thing to stop the race in subsequent years has been war and disease.

During the Second World War the race had to be cancelled for two consecutive year’s during1943- 1944 but in more recent times it was the outbreak of Foot and Mouth disease in 2001 which caused the festival to close its doors. It was to be inevitable given that the course fell within an exclusion zone for the disease.

Even as the race was prepared to run the following month in the April it was still under question whether the disease would bring about a further abandonment as another outbreak was confirmed by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fishers and Foods in Woolstone just 5 miles away from the track. Finally Edward Gillespie the Managing Director of Cheltenham had to issue a brief confirming that the course was in fact within the boundary of the exclusion zone for the new case of foot and mouth and that the meeting for 2001 would not be going ahead.

There have been many a famous winner of the Champion Hurdle, names which when spoken are known by many a regular punter and the occasional race watcher alike. Sea Pigeon won the race not once but twice in 1980 and 1981. See You Then, the three times winner in 1985, 1986, and 1987 and Istabraq in 1998, 1999 and 2000.

Since 1980 The Champion Hurdle has been the main event on Day One of the Festival meeting and readily brings to the course the very best hurdlers from both the UK and Ireland.

The Golden Era really started back in 1947, the war had ended and the race was won by none another than a horse called National Spirit who then went on to win it again the following year. But it was Hatton’s Grace in 1949 trained by a young Vincent O’Brien who took the crown and held on to it for a further two years, one of only 5 horses to have ever won the race on 3 consecutive occasions. The mantle was taken up in 1952 by Sir Ken and it wasn’t until 1968 did we see another triple Champion Hurdle winner in Persian War.

Persian War had already succeeded in winning the Triumph Hurdle before taking his turn at the crown for a fourth time but it was the magnificent Bula, trained by Fred Winter that rode past the finish line as the winner in 1971 and 1972. Bula then went chasing and was successful being placed third in The Gold Cup at the Cheltenham meeting in 1975, but sadly his successful jumping career and possible win of The Gold Cup was cut very short following a fall at Cheltenham in 1977.

The end of the 1970’s introduced the racing world to the wonder which was Night Nurse. This horse certainly fitted the bill of “unbeatable” winning not just one but 10 consecutive hurdle races during 1975-1976 including the Welsh, English and Scottish Champion Hurdles and he even went on to finish second in The Gold Cup! Eventually though the time came where night Nurse had to face his own formidable stable companion, Sea Pigeon, a horse which had already shown a good turn of foot on the Flat having even raced in The Derby.

1978 and 1979 saw Monksfield and Sea Pigeon battle for the winning position in the Champion Hurdle and each time Monksfield edged to the fore but in 1980 as the field turned for home and the regular battle ensued again Sea Pigeon’s jockey, Jonjo O’Neill found himself travelling far better than he had before, and with a strong run his horse took the lead and he pulled away from the two times champion Monksfield to finally win the race.

With the introduction of a new look racecourse at Cheltenham during the 1980’s, the Champion Hurdle race distance was changed from the 2 miles 110 yards to 2 miles and 87 yards. This change ensured that the runners would not race past the wining post and out of sight of the grandstand but would finish their race where all could watch and enjoy the spectacle and there were definitely spectacles to come over the following years.

1981 saw Sea Pigeon ridden by John Francome, following an injury to his regular jockey Jonjo O’Neill, and it was felt that age was now catching up with the horse that was by this time 11 years of age, but all he needed was a jockey who could hold on to him for as long as possible and Francome was the man to do it. As they reached the final 100 yards Francome let his horse hit the front to win the 1981 Champion Hurdle.

The next three years saw the winners spoils shared between, For Auction, Gaye Brief and Dawn Run, but it was See You Then who reignited the crowds and gave the feeling that maybe they had found a hurdler who would be able to come back to the course in subsequent years and defend his crown and be another Triple winner.

His first win was in 1985. As a mere 5 year old See You Then won the race that year impressively and was one of only a handful of 5 year olds who had triumphed in the race. Trained by Nicky Henderson and ridden by Steve Smith Eccles he beat the odds on favourite Browne’s Gazette.

See You Then was often referred to as See You When, as his appearances on the track were pretty sporadic and his following campaign year was no less troubled, with it difficult at times to see whether the horse would be able to defend his Champion’s crown the following year, but Henderson managed to ensure that the horse was fit enough to race.

See You Then travelled enthusiastically and as the race reached the final bend of the track he was waiting patiently to steal the race from his rivals. Cheltenham seemed to be his track.

He appeared to relish the course and the crowds and yet again on reaching the famous Cheltenham hill he quickened away to comfortably win his race.

For a horse that was known to be very frail in the legs his wins at Cheltenham seem all the more remarkable given that the course is so unforgiving with its undulating track.

Could he return to win a third consecutive Champion Hurdle?

As is often the case with Cheltenham winners the supporters stuck with their mount and support was given in equal measure by his connections. Everyone around him backed him in his chance to take the crown for a third time.

Reaching the final flight he joined the leader and then Smith Eccles got serious on his mount, and in true See You Then style and he swept half a length clear. He won the race and became one of the elite few of triple Champion Hurdle winners.

It wasn’t until the late 1990’s that we saw a triple winner again.

1998 saw the rise of Istabraq an Aidan O’Brien trained horse ridden by Charlie Swan. Most see O’Brien as a Flat specialist and the horse up to moving to the O’Brien stable had performed averagely at best on the flat, but the move to Ireland saw Istabraq come in to his own and he went off the relatively short priced favourite in 1998, 1999 and 2000.

The Irish “banker” of the race in 1989 he duly won the race despite interference and being bumped and the following year he again easily travelled through his prep races which included some of the biggest Irish hurdle races and galloped away to win the Champion Hurdle for a second time.

There seemed little doubt in people’s minds that on his return to the track in 1990 he would win his race.

The eve of the race Istabraq reportedly suffered a nose bleed and the news travelled fast but yet it certainly didn’t stop him going off the 8/15 favourite and winning the race by 4 lengths.

Subsequent years have seen some great names take the Champions crown including, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca, Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Rock On Ruby and more recently Annie Power.

The 2018 Champion Hurdle will be run on Tuesday 13th March and last year’s Nicky Henderson winner Buveur D’Air is certainly toward the head of the betting in the Ante Post market currently.

Interestingly though Willie Mullins may well send Yorkhill back over hurdles and we may see the horse challenging for the Champion Hurdle. The horse should have easily won the Ryanair Gold Cup at Fairyhouse in April this year but jumped violently left all the way round.

Mullins says that the horse has tons of ability and would still have won the race had he not lost ground with a rather odd “leap” at the final fence.

Yorkhill is a wilful horse but Mullins said that he bought the horse irrespective of his unpredictability (he managed to run out of his first point to point race).

In an interview with the Guardian Mullins said: “You think a horse will get better with age,” the trainer said, “but over fences it seems to bring it out more in him. Whether he should go back to hurdles … He might be easier to ride over hurdles, it might be a lot easier on jockeys.

“It’s always something I wanted to do anyhow and, just the way this year worked out, I went chasing. I think he’s a real ability over hurdles.

“He looks like either a Champion Hurdle horse or a Gold Cup horse. At home, he seems to jump straight enough.”

Tipped by the bookies as an 11/8 shot that he will run in the 2018 Champion Hurdle his Ante Post odds are around 25/1.

Who knows? Personally we’d love to see another triple winner come from the Henderson yard but there are a number of other prestigious races to be run before the Festival fever hits us and as we all know, anything can happen.

Tipster Profile

John of Value Wins first got in to the world of horse racing after having been introduced to the sport by a friend. At the time they were both students and his friend would trail from bookie to bookie with John not too far behind. It was here that he learned the art of reading form from the racing Post pages pinned to the bookmakers shop walls.

He often reminisces of the time when bookies were colourful affairs full of interesting characters. The armoury of information available to punters these days is never ending, gone are the days of the lonely newspaper pinned to the wall. His first bet many moons ago was back in 1960 on St Paddy, ridden by Lester Piggott, he had sixpence riding on it (5p in modern money :) ) each way at 6/4 :).

John has never had any serious interest in sports other than horse racing, although he doesn’t mind watching the odd Rugby or Football match and the occasional big named boxing match, and his days trailing on the coat tails of his friend in the old days has certainly paid off. He knows that you must get an angle on your betting and preferably one that no one else has found or is using!

He has constantly searched for new angles and “Value Wins” is without a doubt the best he has come up with yet in his opinion. From the moment he started using it he had confidence that he had not felt before, he would even be so bold to say that he doesn’t envisage a month where the service won’t make a profit. Now that is a bold claim! Consistent month after month profits are what we are always looking for. He puts part of his success down to the fact that “Value Wins” is the perfect mix of both long priced outsiders and shorter priced bets, though he will never advise anything shorter than 15/8. His years of experience have not been without the odd error on his part from time to time but John knows that it takes years of experience to fully understand what you are doing and that there will always be something new to learn.

The benefit of “Value Wins” is that the racing net is cast wide and there is little need to specialise in particular race types or conditions. Specialising in John’s opinion brings about its own dangers in that you can find yourself in a very narrow field with a large number of other people betting in the same area and that’s when value just disappears.

He doesn’t shy away from the fact that he is selling his tips neither. He openly admits that the extra income from a tipping service is a nice thing to have, but he won’t deny he wants to see the name of “Value Wins” heading up the tipsters leader boards. He’s competitive like that. Apply the knowledge he has learned and his natural talent he hopes that we will be seeing a lot more of him over the coming months.

The daily work schedule of a tipster is not easy and the hours worked can vary depending on the number of meetings being held but you can guarantee that John will be working on the next day’s races even before the current days racing has finished.

“Value Wins” selections will be sent out every day except for occasional Sundays when John will take a well-earned break and the number of tips could be anything from 1 to 10 per day again depending on the number of meetings on the day.

He knows that punters are looking for consistent profits and he acknowledges that some services can rack up big profits in one month and then totally disappear the following month. John is out to offer consistency, a rare word in the tipping industry.

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September Profits to be Pocketed

Our resident author Nick Hardman of Racing Trends and our guest author Ben Aitken of Narrowing The Field have both picked up on Nigel Twiston Davies as an early starter when it comes to the National Hunt Season.

If you are a regular reader of On Course Profits you will undoubtedly be saying, heh we know all about that, but it is always interesting when others pick up on a trainer, and more importantly when they manage to find a lesser known angle for that trainer.

Most punters will just look at the surface, Twiston-Davies is the trainer to be with at the start of the season, but how many will look a little deeper and rather than backing every runner outright, as will most, think about being more selective with their bets and consequently yielding a higher return for their efforts?

Ben has also picked up on a trainer we personally follow over the jumps which is Dr D P Newland who generally performs well in the early part of the season, but there are also a couple of other smaller trainers we feel may work well alongside Dr Newland particularly during the month of September and they are Desmond McDonogh over in County Meath in Ireland and Mike Sowersby based up in East Yorkshire.

Had you backed all of their runners during the month of September over the past 5 years you would have made a profit of almost 100 points. The win strike rate isn’t one you would possibly write home about BUT they do land some big priced winners.

The place rate is quite tidy though although interestingly backing each way wouldn’t see you booster the coffers much further.

Desmond McDonogh’s record over the past 5 years is shown below and again a win strike rate possibly below par but a reasonable place strike rate, and when they do win then they are usually at a healthy price.

The 5 winners here were priced at 9/1, 33/1, 12/1, 14/1 and 33/1, but had you backed each way you would have enhanced your return still further as those horses that placed were also offering good each way returns.

But it is his handicap runners you want to be with.

His non handicap runners produced 4 placed selections of which 1 won their race but none of the placed selections were priced greater than 12/1. Could it be McDonogh knows when to throw a horse in to a handicap race to best advantage?

2016 wasn’t a great year for the yard but we will be watching this year to see if a return to previous years form can be found and will look to support his runners on and Each Way basis.

Mike Sowersby’s win and place strike rates make slightly better reading, but backing each way would see you make no gains in profits.

A look at the timeline over the past 5 years clearly shows that the bulk of profits came back in 2012 with a 25/1 winner, but that aside his handicap runners still show a healthy strike rate when standing alone.

If we add in Dr DP Newland’s handicap runners to the mix there is a sure chance of profit for September over the jumps but again we’d be looking to back his runners on a Win Only basis.

So in summary for the National Hunt runners…

Back all handicap runners from the stables of Desmond McDonogh (Each Way), Mike Sowersby (Win Only) and Dr Newland (Win Only) during the month of September.

Just because the National Hunt season has started though does not mean we should overlook the other race types.

The flat season still has some time to go before the final big race at Doncaster and one or two trainers seem to still be able to deliver their runners on the Turf Flat during September.

First up Charlie Fellowes

You may not see many on the course during September but if he does have any runners keep an eye out because he may offer some nice each way chances.

The past 3 years backing to win only have produced 23.50 points profit but, backing each way with a place strike rate of almost 50%, would have seen you pocket 44 points profit.

Three trainers worth looking at on a Win Only basis are Ismail Mohammed, Wilf Storey and John James Feane.

2015 wasn’t the best of years but 2016 returned a 27% strike rate for the trio and profits of almost 40 points.

And all 9 of the wins and all but 1 of the placed horses came in handicaps.

So to recap, on the Turf Flat back all handicap runners from Ismail Mohammed, Wilf Storey and John James Feane on a Win Only basis.

And to cover all bases we’ll take a look at the All Weather.

On the All Weather there are two stand outs for September on our book, the first a well-known trainer and the second possible lesser so.

Amanda Perrett is known for her Turf runners but her runners on the All Weather during the month of September can often bring nice rewards when followed.

The place strike rate pricks our attention and the results do not disappoint.

The place strike rate over the past 5 years reads, 50%, 40%, 38%, 53%, 50%. Now even if they don’t win their race the suggestion is that they are damn well getting their heads down and trying, but interestingly it is at Kempton where the runners are successful with just 1 winner and 3 placed elsewhere across the country. It possibly won’t come as a surprise neither to see that it is her handicap runners who deliver at Kempton.

Albeit the figures are slightly skewed by a 2012 20/1 and 16/1 winner you can’t get away from the place strike rate and we will be backing each way during the month of September to ensure we don’t miss out on possible opportunities.

Our final trainer is Hugo Palmer

Another trainer who offers us a greater than 50% place strike rate on the All Weather is Hugo Palmer and 2016 saw a bumper year with a 30% win rate and 65% strike rate and he manages to get his horses in the frame on pretty much all of the All Weather tracks.

His handicappers offer up the profits but interestingly 2016 saw half of his Non Handicappers win their races and two-thirds overall finish in the places, and on that basis we wouldn’t recommend ignoring them.

So the suggestion is to back Amanda Perrett’s Handicap runners at Kempton each way during the month of September and back ALL runners from the Hugo Palmer stable irrespective of track each way.

Narrowing The Field

This month we have a guest article in the first in a series from Ben Aitken of Narrowing The Field and Badly Drawn Horse fame.

Ben has highlighted the Nigel Twiston-Davies angle which has already been highlighted by our resident autor Nick Hardman so if they both have picked up on this gem, maybe we should pay attention this September/October.

So, over to Ben...

Which ‘lesser’ National Hunt yards have their strings in rude health whilst the big guns are still rising from their summer slumbers?

The month of September in the National Hunt calendar can pass by relatively unseen by the majority of racing punters. The Flat racing party is still well and truly in full swing and the jumping game is, to a certain extent, ticking along relatively unnoticed in the background. October is slightly different as there are a couple of high profile meetings from the middle of the month onwards but on the whole it’s a month where the main jumping yards are only really engaging the lower gears. As always that’s brilliant news for the shrewd punters amongst us (hopefully that’s a number of you guys that are reading this) as we can take a bit of time to dig into the profiles of the ‘lesser trainers’ on the national Hunt scene to enhance our betting banks. It is typically around this part of the season that the Naunton based Nigel Twiston Davies yard starts thrusting into to top gear, a period of the racing calendar I like to call the start of ‘Twister Season’. Any long-time followers of my own website Narrowing The Field will be fully aware of this profitable sub angle. This, however, is a relatively well know approach and although I will be delving into ‘Twister Season’ briefly for this article I really want to be highlighting some lesser known trainers that we can look to profit from.

It would be rude, however, not to start by looking at the Twiston-Davies figures for this stage of the season so to begin with let’s get ‘Twister Season’ out of the way -

*Stats are from 2012-2016 (September and October)

Trainer: NIGEL TWISTON DAVIES Twiston Davies loves to hit the ground running and if there is one trainer you can rely upon to have his runners absolutely bouncing at this time of the year then it’s this guy. Take a look at his overall figures for September and October -

Overall Nigel Twiston Davies record | September and October | 2012-20

Considering the amount of runners the yard has sent out in this two month spell over the past five seasons the percentage strike rates and the level stakes returns are simply fantastic. Twiston-Davies has his string in complete and utter bouncing health at this time of the year and whilst other yards of similar size and reputation may still be fine tuning things team Twister are pumping out the winners all over the shop.

The facts are that Twiston Davies is an expert at getting his string fit and ready to fire in the early months of the National Hunt season, he has been for a long time now and doesn’t appear to be slowing anytime soon, and as punters we need to take advantage of these hot streaks.

Areas to concentrate on…

Uttoxeter - 10/32 | 31% S/R | +£38.98 BFLSP – W&P 18/32 | 56% S/R

Worcester - 9/34 | 26% S/R | +£33.03 BFLSP – W&P 13/34 | 38% S/R

JP Bargary riding - 10/26 | 38% S/R | +£40.38 BFLSP – W&P 15/26 | 58% S/R

Now that ‘Twister season’ has been dealt with lets now take a closer look at some of the less obvious National Hunt yards around the country that also excel with their strings during September and October…

Trainer: CHARLIE LONGSDON (September only) Charlie Longsdon is interesting on the stats front as his figures are dynamite during September but well and truly dip into the red during October. My suspicion would be that he trains a one section of his string with summer targets in mind and then trains the remaining section (the largest section) with a winter campaign fully in mind. That would cause a cross- over period where the summer string are winding down for the winter and the winter string are building up for the wet and wild months ahead. That month would appear to be October. Don’t get me wrong, Longsdon has plenty of winners during October but unlike September you really can’t follow his runners blind and expect to be in profit.

I’ll concentrate on his September figures for this article but I’ll also highlight his October stats so you can see what I’m getting at with the discrepancy between the two…

Overall Charlie Longsdon record | September | 2012 - 2016

Now for those October figures so you can see how you just need to tread a bit more careful around Longsdon when it comes to the early season skirmishes…

Longsdon October Stats 2012- 2016 - 68/311 | 22% S/R | -£59.10 BFLSP

Decent amount of winners, decent strike-rate, shocking BFLSP returns! I think it’s safe to say Longsdon is over-bet during the month of October. The facts are that he fires out a significant amount more in terms of runners during October and a number of them clearly need the run and/or have future targets in mind.

(September) Areas to concentrate on…

Chasers - 10/24 | 42% S/R | +17.39 BFLSP – W&P 15/24 | 63% S/R

Richard Johnson riding - 9/23 | 39% S/R | +£16.55 BFLSP – W7p 17/23 | 74% S/R

Top 5 finish 1 of last 3 starts - 25/64 | 39% S/R | +£37.61 BFLSP – W&P 42/64 | 65% S/R

Trainer: DR RP NEWLAND Dr Newland is a trainer that regular skips under the radar, month upon month, season after season. He fires in a solid amount of wins from a fairly limited string (generally between 30 – 40 winners each calendar year) and his strike-rate for the year regularly sits in the 21%+ zone. You can’t, however, back him blind and expect to profit from his runners, except maybe during the September to October period...

Here are his recent figures from the September and October period -

Overall DR RP Newland record | September and October | 2009-2013

The following are the areas you may want to concentrate your Newland betting efforts on…

Areas to concentrate on…

Fontwell - 9/18 | 50% S/R | +£14.48 BFLSP

Top 2 finish 1 of last 3 starts - 27/88 | 31% S/R | +£22.13 BFLSP

Non-Handicaps | Horse 11+ career starts - 11/18 | 61% S/R | +£10.72 BFLSP

Trainer: REBECCA CURTIS (2014-2016) The Curtis yard has been a little bit tricky to predict in recent seasons, regularly going through cold spells and dips in form and not quite getting the best out of their exciting prospects. They have, however, been starting off the seasons in fine form and are well worth having on side in the early skirmishes.

Here are her recent figures from the September and October period -

Overall R Curtis record | September and October | 2009-2013

You could have followed the yards runners blind for the past three seasons during the September – October period and pulled in tasty profits in each year (+12.45, +16.46 & +39.54).

As always, however, things can be tightened up further and the following are specific areas to concentrate on…

Areas to concentrate on…

Runners aged 5yo – 9yo - 23/92 | 25% S/R | +£75.58 BFLSP

Top 2 finish 1 of last 3 starts - 19/62 | 31% S/R | +£73.36 BFLSP

Ridden by Jonathon Moore - 7/26 | 27% S/R | +£37.85 BFLSP

How the ‘Big two’ fare in September and October And by the ‘Big two’ I obviously mean Messrs Nicholls & Henderson.

The big two will have runners during this period and they will have winners. However, their main focus will be on races a bit further down the line and as such they will most likely be viewing this part of the season as a time to gauge the overall fitness of their entire yard.

There are, however, a couple of areas during the September – October period where we can profit from them...

Paul Nicholls Sept/Oct angle

Non-Handicap Hurdles - 42/103 | 41% S/R | +£19.97 BFLSP – W&P 58/103 | 56% S/R

Nicky Henderson Sept/Oct angle

Class 3 or lower Hurdle races | Horse top 2 finish 1 of last 3 starts - 23/55 | 42% S/R | +£44.88 BFLSP – W&P 34/55 | 62% S/R

Profits are naturally tricky to find amongst the main players, sometimes more so at early this stage of the season, so if you are taking a punt on one of their runners, make sure you have plenty in your favour whilst they are still fine tuning their strings to get them bouncing fit. The two mini-angle above are excellent starting points and should continue to be strong in coming seasons.

Happy Autumn punting one and all.

Ben Aitken (NTF)

Join me at the NTF Website - www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk

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Product Reviews Have any of the services we have been reviewing recently hit the profit bar or have they all fell short and left us feeling defeated this month?

Cost: £48.00 + VAT every 28 days /£96.00 every quarter

The Trial: Our latest month monitoring this service has produced 26 winners from 82 selections and a profit to the advised stakes and prices of over 60 points which is excellent!

Our cumulative position now stands at just a shade less than 73 points profit with staking averaging at 4.25 points. The staking may not agree with everyone but on our results so far you would have seen returns of 14% on your investment. Our only criticism is that getting the advised prices is difficult with the selections being sent through at all hours and often with the markets being weak, that said the profit to Industry Starting Prices to date is still a relatively healthy 38 points.

Conclusion: On the surface it is looking good but the staking lowers the ROI and so we need to ensure that the winners keep coming in. Find out more here.

Cost: £1.00 Trial Offer available for the first 30 days then £39.95 per month thereafter / £99.95 per quarter / £479.95 per annum.

The Trial: A similar situation to last month in that there were numerous bets and emails arriving at all hours which makes for a very difficult service to follow.

Had we actually been able to get our head around the bets then we would have seen a profit but there were just too many for us to manage.

Conclusion: May appeal to those who like to place large numbers of bets and having a more diverse portfolio. Find out more here.

Cost: £29.00 per annum.

The Trial: Understandably the number of football bets slowed down during the latest month although it is certainly a courtesy to send a “no bet” email rather than find silence in your inbox particularly as we had 16 blank days in total and of those we received no communication on 6 of them.

We did get a 50% strike rate with 8 winners from 16 selections this past month at the advised odds of between 1.42 and 2.25. Interestingly the standard 1 point simple level stake was doubled on the 1.42 winner and one of the loser’s was a half point stake suggesting a reasonable knowledge of the sport. But at these prices we still landed just less than break even with just less than a half point loss for the month.

With 47 selections and 25 winners you would expect to be showing a reasonable profit but at these prices we are barely one point in front of the break even line.

Conclusion: We are still hoping for a little more spare cash next month! Click here to find out more.

Cost: TBA

Trial: Another service which has produced similar results to the previous month. With 48 winners from 85 selections we would be expecting more than the shade less than 1.50 points profit we have to show for our endeavours. This brings us to just over 2.50 points in profit from 73 winners from the 128 selections to date.

This feels like hard work.

In fairness at least these figures are to the Industry SP but you would really need to stake large sums than a tenner stake to see any significant rewards for your efforts.

As these figures are at SP it is very likely they could be improved upon and maybe the dreaded increase stake after losers would improve the position. The ROI is a modest 2% and the service would only really suit those betting at £100 per point.

Conclusion: May suit a big stakes player but not one for us.

Cost: £40.00 + VAT every 28 days / £80.00 + VAT every quarter.

The Trial: During our latest month we have had 110 selections of which 87 were winning bets (where the horse lost their race) and this gives a strike rate of 79%. Our overall performance for the month was a small loss of just over 1 point to level 1 point stakes after allowing for the Betfair commission.

But we have a note of caution.

Laying up to 18.50 at Betfair SP may well be very risky.

Conclusion: May improve. You can find out more here.

Cost: £70.00 + VAT every 28 days / £120.00 + VAT every quarter or £197.00 + VAT every 6 months.

The Trial: A new service for Betfan’s Tipster TV stable Simon Holden’s knowledge of horse racing and Adrian Williams’s mathematical expertise believe they have come together and produced the perfect money making solution!

By backing small trainer or jockeys who can slip under the radar (sound familiar) or laying those who are more often than not overbet they believe they can turn a healthy profit.

Your selections are delivered daily by email on the morning of the race and so far we have had just two no bet days with the remainder having anywhere between 1 and 6 selections.

Having monitored 75 tips so far (58 backs and 17 lays) we managed a profit on the back bets of 5.50 points (8 winners, although to Betfair you would have had a loss of 2.75 points), and a small profit from the lay bets of 1.50 points after 5% commission.

It is early days and we are sure that these results are not as good as they had hoped for but there is still time. Conclusion: Hoping for improvement. You can find out more here. Quentin Franks & Master Racing Tipster Update Quentin Franks dropped 14pts of last month’s 23pts profit, but pleased to say that Master Racing Tipster added a further 17pts to the profit pot this month.

Tipster Top Ten

1. CScores – SR 11% ROI 53% We take it all back. We weren’t sure if we’d see CScores this month but they have topped the table! As the name suggests CScores tips up correct scores in the football markets with 1-2 selections being tipped daily. Selections cover all leagues and countries so there will always be a match on somewhere to bet on, but with the UK Premiership now in full swing it will be interesting to see if there are regular selections for the UK markets too. Recent wins include selections from the Chinese Super League and Indonesian Liga 1 @ 16/1 and 14/1 respectively. Find out more about the service here

2. Select Advisory Service – SR 31% ROI 47% The Select Advisory Service (SAS) comes from the Betfan stable and since the beginning of June this service has been on a healthy and steady upward curve in terms of profits. Offering singles, each ways, doubles and trebles there is always a chance of landing a big win. Odds are usually in single figures so the chances of landing a double may be nearer than you think. Find out more about the service here

3. The Strict Rule System – SR 34% ROI 42% The Strict Rule System developed for horse racing has been trialled over the last six months and has according to their reports turned out to be very profitable. Results are shown on the site and show a good positive upward trend in terms of profits. Recent winners include Still Believing 11/1, Pateen 33/1, Pete So High 7/1and Wolfcatcher 16/1 to name a few. Find out more about the service here

4. Power Bet Pro – SR 30% ROI 42% A good strike rate and excellent ROI for this service over the past 90 days. June showed a small loss while July recovered well but it is August so far which has been an exceptional month helped by wins at the start of the month with Rathvinden 8/1 Win, and 3 each way placers (all of which finished 2nd…doh!) Blond Me 18/1, Robin Des Foret 8/1 and Swamp Fox 16/1. The service had these 4 selections in a Yankee and oh how nice that would have been had the day not been one infected by seconditis. Find out more about the service here

5. Select Two Racing System – SR 68% ROI 40% This service has an excellent strike rate but the ROI is reflective of an each way double win from Peace Trail 6/4 and Frankuus 8/1, also backed as singles. The service tips up two singles and a double most days, and usually for single figure priced runners so they are hoping for a regular return from the doubles to keep profits rolling in. As is often the case the previous month was 30 points in the red so be prepared for a bit of a rollercoaster. Find out more about the service

6. Omaha Racing – SR 41% ROI 41% Omaha Racing drops down the table slightly this month but is still delivering results. Recent winners include magical Effect 9/1, Ice Age 7/1, Upstaging (Placed 28/1). With bets being Each Way and at the prices placed there is always a good chance of returning your stake when backing each way and it seems to be paying dividends for this service. Find out more about the service

7. Lucky 7 Naps – SR 21% ROI 32% Lucky 7 Naps remains in the table this month and continues to maintain both a healthy strike rate and ROI. August did get off to a difficult start but thanks to 5 wins from 5 selections on 11th (prices varying from 15/8 up to 10/1) they were soon back with the profits. Find out more about the service here

8. Racing Consultants – SR 21% ROI 24% Back in the table this month are the Racing Consultants. Positive profits have been landed for the past 3 consecutive months with an average monthly profit of 20 points we would be happy with that. Find out more about the service

9. Declan O’Donoghue – SR 32% ROI 14% Also still in the table this month but with a reduced ROI is Declan O’Donoghue. An ROI of 14% is not to be sniffed at but compared to last month’s 30% the chances are if you are a recent joiner you will currently be sitting with a negative on the books. As with all services there are highs and lows and it is the long term which counts so we hope that there will be a turn of fortunes for the service in due course. Find out more about the service

10. Fantastic Eights – SR 17% ROI 11% Another service feeling the red zone this month is fantastic Eights. They too need a turn of fortunes if they are to be here next month. Find out more about this service here

Tipster Review Declan O’Donoghue’s Irish Racing comes from the BetFan stable of services and is priced at £45.00 + VAT every 28 days with a 90 day option available for £95.00 + VAT .

As the service name suggests it concentrates primarily on the Irish Racing and the author himself has had a career in racing as The Irish Sun Racing Correspondent for 20 years up to 2015.

His time as a journalist meant that he has covered all aspects of the Irish racing and has used his acquired knowledge to good use with his tipping in the Irish Field Naps completion where he finished 2nd. A man who is never afraid to swim against the tide of other tipsters he knows that the world of tipping often involves a game of snakes and ladders too.

He is a regular race goer and although he obviously loves the jumping meetings such as Cheltenham his heart is quite clearly with Irish Flat Racing. He never misses a meeting at the Curragh and he prides himself on his depth of knowledge and his success when it comes to the Irish Flat Racing scene.

In addition to his time at the Irish Sun he was also a regular contributor and tipster for William Hill radio previewing the Irish racing for the UK listeners.

Declan tips up both win and each way bets daily with recommended points staking, which is usually between 1-5 points with a 5 pointer bet being his MAX bet. The greater the points he stakes the greater his confidence in his selection that day.

Our own review of his service found that the majority of his bets were staked as 4 points win or 2 points each way but for simplicity we recorded our bets all at simple 1 point stake or ½ point each way.

We didn’t get off to the best of starts at our trial began with 19 consecutive losing selections and hence we were showing a hefty deficit until we landed a 20/1 winner. Landing big priced winners like this though mean that losing runs are inevitable.

Our following month fared much better producing 58 points profit but we have to say that a reality check is needed from time to time as the advised odds are often difficult to achieve. The problem with Irish racing appears to be that non-runners are very common and as such Rule 4 deductions affect the prices significantly.

That said if you have a ready access to a number of bookmaker accounts you should still be able to achieve a good return.

Our final month on the trial yet again returned a nice profit of 23 points and even backing at Betfair SP you would still have made almost 7 points profit.

Our overall results were as follows:

Number of selections received: 297 Number of winners: 76 Strike Rate: 25.50% Points Profit: 82.75 ROI to 1 point win level stakes: 27%

Overall we found this a worthy service of our hard earned pennies as it is rare to find a service which can offer you consistent profits month by month and for that reason alone we decided to add this to our recommended tipping services.

You can find out more about Declan O’Donoghue’s Irish Racing service here