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Nigel Twiston-Davies, and It Is No Secret He Starts Quickly

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Nigel Twiston-Davies, and It Is No Secret He Starts Quickly Editor's Welcome The problem with the magazine publishing business is that you are always looking ahead and thinking about the following months. So right now I see sunshine out of my window but I'm thinking about National Hunt racing and the coming autumn and winter. On the bright side there is a lot of money to be won with early season jumps trainers and that is why we have a lot of research into this phenomenon this month. And this month that includes research from somebody who knows that September and October are highly profitable and that is Ben Aitken of Narrowing The Field. Ben is with us for the next three months which for him is the highlight of the year and where he makes most of his profit. Do check out his website for profitable tips http://narrowing-the- field.co.uk Nick also has updated his research into early season jumps trainers to uncover some profitable angles as has Wendy. The fact is that when three experts independently focus on the same type of strategy you know there must be profit to be found there. Elsewhere we have an interview with the only tipster with a Masters Degree in International Politics, which is obviously crucial to a successful punting career! I'm talking about John Burke who is the brains behind the Victor Value service. And if you are into the Irish racing scene, and you should be, we have a more detailed look at the Declan O'Donoghue tipping service. I hope you enjoy this month’s issue. All the best. Darren Power Early Season Jumps Trainers September sees the flat season winding down and the jumps season kicking in and it is often a difficult time for punters. There are several reasons for this. Firstly, the jumps season early runners will not have any seasonal collateral form for you to look at and things like fitness and wellbeing need to be taken on trust. For the flat runners, many will have had a hard season, others may be handicapped up to their best and it is difficult to know what to expect. There are many strange results under both codes at this time of the year. However, historical trainer performance is one indicator that can be used during this difficult time and we looked at trainers that do well at the end of the flat season in last month’s article. As a companion to that article I am going to take a look at the trainers it has paid to follow in the early months of the jumps season. Some are well known and we will look at whether the bookies have cramped the odds on their runners in response to their known performance in these early stages of the season. Some are less well known and they could be the ones to keep an eye on before the rest of the industry decides to sit up and take note. We begin with the obvious one, Nigel Twiston-Davies, and it is no secret he starts quickly. The question that needs answering is whether his runners are still profitable to follow despite it being well known that his string is always fit and ready to go. So, let’s see what the numbers tell us. Nigel Twiston-Davies The first thing to note about NTD is that last season was his best early start for quite a while. He saddled 28 winners from 92 runners (30% strike rate) and produced level stakes profit at Betfair SP to the tune of £25.79. Those figures represent his highest number of winners since 2010 and 2007 (when he scored with 27 runners) and his highest strike rate since 2007. Good news for punters. His yearly breakdown looks like this: Do not be alarmed by the P/L of £0 in 2003 to 2007 as Horse Race Base does not have the data for Betfair SP when Betfair was in its infancy. The good news is that NTD early season runners have been profitable to follow in all bar 3 of the season since 2003, using industry SP as the guide (which is really a worst-case scenario). Seeing as Betfair SP is relevant and industry SP is not (in my opinion) we shall stick to 2008 to 2016 for the rest of the analysis of the NTD runners. That leaves the following numbers: OK, so with that out of the way let us take a closer look at the results to see if we can unearth any patterns or angles that could give us an edge in the next two months. First, I want to see where he sends his early season runners to best effect so I have broken down the results by course. Trainers are a creature of habit and they will often target the same meetings and the same courses year in year out. In terms of the number of winners then Uttoxeter and Perth come in at the top of the list with 25 winners and 21 winners respectively. Next up is Stratford with 14 winners and Cheltenham with 13 winners. Combining those four tracks gives us 73 winners out of the 172 winners in September and October since 2008. Not bad going by any stretch of the imagination. Looking closer we see that Uttoxeter has been kindest to punters with 25 winners coming from just 74 runners at a strike rate of 34% and a level stakes profit at Betfair SP of £105.77. The Perth runners have a decent strike rate (25%) but show an overall loss. The Cheltenham runners have a 15% strike rate and show a nominal profit but the Stratford runners show a fantastic profit of £134.59 from a 23% strike rate. Other courses worthy of a mention are Kempton where his runners are 7-11 since 2008 and are actually 7 wins from the 9 most recent runners. However, three of those 7 wins came courtesy of The New One and two from Fond Memory so I would not read too much into the bare figures. The one thing we can do to try and make NTD more profitable is to ditch his early season bumper runners. There are typically overbet as the figures below show: The strike rate is good (17%) and not far off that of the hurdlers (20%) but backing these runners has incurred losses since 2008. That still leaves us with 161 winners in the last 9 seasons in the months of September and October. Now I want to look at the split between September and October for the NTD hurdlers and chasers and the results are quite interesting: The strike rates are very similar but the number of runners in October is over twice the amount the yard sends out in September. More importantly, the level stakes profit and return on investment from the October runners is significantly better. If you want, you can hold off backing the NTD runners until October as this is when he makes most of his profit. Next, I want to look at jockeys. Son, Sam Twiston-Davies, is now stable jockey to Paul Nicholls but he still takes a fair few rides for his Dad. They combined in the months of September and October for 9 winners from 26 rides in 2016 and combined for 5 winners from 35 rides in 2015. However, those years only just eked out a marginal profit and it may pay to look elsewhere. The two to concentrate on are Jamie Bargary and Ryan Hatch. Last year alone these two riders teamed up with NTD for 13 winners from 45 rides for a profit of £27.79 at Betfair SP. In fact, these two in combination with NTD have made a profit every year since 2012 in the months of September and October. I expect more success again this year. Daryl Jacob rode 4 winners for NTD last season in the early months and they came from just 8 rides so look out for that combination again this year. Six of those runners and all four winners went off as favourite. Looking at handicap and non-handicap races, winners come in equal measures from both race types. Both sets of runners have been profitable since 2008. There are any number of possible angles to use for the NTD runners in September and October. Expect Ryan Hatch and Jamie Bargary to be on board for most of the runners and Daryl Jacob and Sam Twiston-Davies to take the rides on the better horses in the higher-class races. Whichever way you cut it, Nigel Twiston-Davies is a trainer to be taken very seriously in the early part of the jumps season. Paul Nicholls Some may not be surprised about Paul Nicholls being up there but he is not one that is usually worth following early doors. He made a nice profit in 2008 with 21 winners from 62 runners (+30.29pts) but then the next 7 years was a mixed bag of break even and losing years. There was a definite step change in 2016 when Nicholls sent out a record number of 80 runners in September and October (compared to the usual 50 to 60) and no fewer than 34 of these won. They came at a win rate of 42.5% and produced profits of £25.66 at Betfair SP. Looking closely at the 2016 runners we find that they were 6 from 6 at Wincanton, 4 from 5 at Fontwell, 4 from 8 at Cheltenham, 5 from 18 at Chepstow and 5-11 at Newton Abbot so keep an eye out for this runners at these tracks in 2017 in September and October.
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