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Aktienyt Tryg Aktienyt Tryg Køb Stormvejr ryster ikke Tryg Uændret Vi fastholder Købs-anbefalingen på Tryg efter et meget stærkt 4. kvartal, hvor Aktuel kurs: det forsikringstekniske resultat langt overstiger forventningerne. Effektiviserin- gesprogrammet og Trygs risikoafdækning i form af genforsikring skaber et me- 524,50 DKK get robust indtjeningsfundament, som endnu ikke er fuldt afspejlet i kursen. Utrolig stærk afslutning på året Begivenhed: Det forsikringstekniske resultat på 546 mio. kr. i 4. kvartal overstiger langt vores forventnin- Årsregnskab 2013 ger på 179 mio. kr. og markedsforventningerne på 294 mio. kr. Investeringsresultatet på 154 mio. kr. er lavere end ventet, men afvigelsen stammer hovedsageligt fra en nedskriv- ning på en domicilejendom på 76 mio. kr. Nettoresultatet i 4. kvartal er mere end dobbelt så højt, som vi forventede. Tryg indstiller et udbytte på 27 kr. pr. aktie mod vores forventning Seneste analyse: om 28 kr. pr. aktie – en afvigelse som regnskabet taget i betragtning er ubetydelig. Selska- 27/01/14 – Storme blæser bet fastholder de finansielle målsætninger om en CR under 90 og en egenkapitalforrentning toppen af Trygs resultat på mindst 20% fremover. Tryg bøjer sig ikke for stormen – flot, flot forsikringsresultat Kalender: Tryg opgør omkostningerne til stormene til ca. 400 mio. kr. – og det er på linje med vores forventninger. ’Privat’ skiller sig mest positivt ud i det overraskende stærke 4. kvartal, med 03/04/14 – Generalforsamling et resultat på 286 mio. kr. mod vores forventning på 83 mio. kr. Skadeforløbet er væsentligt 10/04/14 – 1. kvartalsregnskab bedre, end vi ventede, og noget lavere omkostninger støtter også resultatet. ’Erhverv’ leve- 10/07/14 – Halvårsregnskab rer et lidt bedre end ventet resultat – også her er både skadeforløb og omkostninger til den 10/10/14 – 3. kvartalsregnskab pæne side. Resultatet i ’Industri’ på 146 mio. kr. overstiger klart vores forventninger om et marginalt underskud, og skadeforløbet er den helt afgørende årsag. ’Sverige’ leverer et bedre end ventet resultat – men kun på grund af høje afløbsgevinster. Forventet opdatering: Kvartalsvist Toplinjefald skal vendes i løbet af 2014 – men indtjeningsfremgang er vigtigere Bruttopræmieindtægterne falder med 6,6% i 4. kvartal og er 3% under vores estimat. Tryg er stadig til dels påvirket af tidligere års prisstigninger, der har flyttet urentable kunder til konkurrenter. Bruttopræmiefaldet er størst i ’Industri’, hvor prisstigningerne og justering af kundeporteføljen påvirker negativt. Tryg peger desuden mod meget konkurrenceprægede markeder i Norge i ’Privat’ og ’Erhverv’. Den meget stærke indtjeningsudvikling vidner om at Trygs strategi virker, og det er langt vigtigere end et midlertidigt fald i bruttopræmieindtæg- terne. Tryg må dog skabe fornyet fremgang i bruttopræmieindtægterne inden for det næste års tid for at bevare indtjeningsmæssig fremdrift, når den positive afsmitning fra effektivise- ringsprogrammet aftager i løbet af 2015. Vi forventer at en endnu stærkere indtjeningsposi- tion kombineret med bredere kendskab til selskabets nylancerede produkter vil støtte i pro- cessen. Trygs indtjeningsevne og udlodning retfærdiggør højere prisfastsættelse Tryg leverer et meget stærkt indtryk med en CR på 89,1 i et kvartal, der har været præget af meget dårligt forsikringsvejr og store skader. Vi vurderer, at effektiviseringerne og Trygs ri- sikoafdækning skaber et meget stærkt og stabilt indtjeningsfundament, som investorerne endnu ikke fuldt ud har indregnet i Trygs aktiekurs. Der udestår stadig mere end 450 mio. kr. af besparelsesprogrammet frem mod udgangen af 2015, og det vil løfte Trygs underlig- gende indtjening yderligere i de kommende år. Vi forhøjer vores estimater for det forsikringstekniske resultat i 2014 og 2015 i kølvandet på Tryg , nr. 2 / 2014 den stærke årsafslutning, men tager samtidig toppen af vores forventninger til investerings- Jacob Pedersen, CFA resultatet. Tryg handler aktuelt på en K/I på 2,9x for 2014. Vi vurderer fortsat, at Trygs ind- senioranalytiker tlf. +45 74 37 44 52 tjeningsmæssige fremdrift (der venter mere i 2014 og 2015) retfærdiggør en højere prisfast- [email protected] sættelse. 30-01-2014, kl.: 15:09 sydbank.dk Aktieanalysen 1/3 Kursudvikling, resultater og Sydbanks forventninger Mio. DKK 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Bruttopræmieindtægter 20.314 19.504 19.241 19.573 19.976 Teknisk resultat 2.492 2.496 2.675 2.450 2.621 Ordinært resultat før skat 3.017 2.993 2.882 2.693 2.871 Nettoresultat 2.208 2.369 2.190 2.060 2.196 Combined ratio (%) 88,0% 87,5% 86,5% 88,3% 88,1% Egenkap. forrentning 22,1% 21,5% 20,1% 19,8% 22,3% EPS - udvandet 35,91 39,38 37,49 36,45 40,22 P/E 11,9 13,3 14,0 14,4 13,0 Indre værdi 181 184 183 179 177 K/I 2,4 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 Yield 6,1% 5,1% 5,4% 5,6% 6,5% Note: combined ratio = Erstatningsprocent + omkostningsprocent + genforsikringsprocent. Markedsværdi : 30,6 mia. kr. Likviditet : Høj Regnskabsår : 01.01 - 31.12 Fondskode : 6001327 Foreslået udbytte 27 DKK /aktie Reuterkode : TRYG.CO Forretningsområde Omsætning og indtjening ’13 Tryg er etableret i 2002, da Tryg i Danmark købte Nordeas skadesforsikringsdel. Selskabet er børsnoteret i 2005 og har Tryghedsgruppen som største aktionær med 60% ejerandel. Tryg er den største udbyder af skadesforsikringsprodukter i Danmark med en markedsandel på ca. 21% og nr. tre i Norge efter Gjensidige og If med ca. 16-17% af markedet. Markedspositionen i Sverige er lavere. Selskabet udbyder skadesforsikringsprodukter til såvel private som er- hvervs- og industrivirksomheder. Risici Middel Tryg’s primære risiko er de vejrmæssige forhold, da vejret har stor betydning for antallet af skader. En kraftig storm vil således have en negativ effekt på nettoresultatet. Tryg er ekspone- ret mod de finansielle markeder via den ”Fri Investeringsportefølje”, som er sammensat af aktier, ejendomme og obligationer. USD-følsomhed: ingen Rentedækning - Valuta-eksponering målt ved omsætningsfordeling Danmark: 48,8% Norge: 40,1% Sverige: 11,1% 2-faktor dividende model - til illustration af kursforventninger Kurs 393,38(-25%) 524,50 655,63 (+25%) Forudsætninger Højvækst periode (antal år) 1 år 1 år 1 år Vækst på 15% p.a. og afkastkrav 7,8% Vækst (% pr. år) 5,0% 5,0% 6,4% Højvækstperiode 15 år og afkastkrav 7,8% Afkastkrav (%) 13,3% 12,0% 11,1% Højvækstperiode 15 år og 15% p.a. vækst Konkurrenceparametre Gen. score: 3,6 Selskabets forventninger Leverandører 3 Finansielle målsætninger: *Egenkapitalforrentning efter skat på Medarbejderne er en vigtig ”råvare”. Tryg har en begrænset forhandlingsstyrke i relation til 20% genforsikringsselskaber pga. størrelsen sammenlignet med internationale selskaber. * Combined ratio på 90 eller derunder Substitut 5 * Omkostningsprocent under 15 i 2015 Der er ingen velegnede substitutter til forsikring. Alternativet er fravalg. Tryg opstiller ikke specifikke forventnin- ger til 2014. Indgangsbarrierer 3 Begrænsede indgangsbarrierer. Etablering kræver investeringer i distribution, markedsføring og opbygning af kundebase. Ændring i indtjening pr. aktie Kunder 3 DKK Før Nu Ændring Kunderne har en relativ lav forhandlingsstyrke – men kan ret let skifte selskab. Produkterne er i 2014E 34,67 37,49 8,1% vid udstrækning standardiserede. 2015E 33,50 36,45 8,8% Intensitet 4 Middel konkurrence inden for forsikring i Danmark. De 5 største selskaber sidder på 70% af Relativ performance (OMX) markedet. En konsolidering blandt de større selskaber er ikke oplagt. 1M 3M 12M Scoreingsintervallet er på 1-5. En høj score er ensbetydende med en stærk position. -6,8% -9,1% 0,1% sydbank.dk Aktieanalysen 2/3 Almindelige oplysninger om udarbejdelse af analyser i Sydbank Denne analyse er udarbejdet af Sydbanks aktieanalyseafdeling, som er en del af Sydbank Markets, en forretningsenhed i Sydbank. Sydbank er under tilsyn af Finanstilsy- net. Sydbank har udarbejdet procedurer, der skal forebygge og forhindre interessekonflikter og sikre, at de udarbejdede analyser har en høj standard og er baseret på objektiv og uafhængig analyse. Disse procedurer er indarbejdet i forretningsgangene, der omfatter aktieanalyseaktiviteterne i Sydbank. Finansielle modeller og metoder anvendt i denne analyse De anbefalinger og holdninger, der udtrykkes i denne analyse er dannet på basis af en kombination af Discounted Cash Flow-analyse, branchekendskab, peer-group ana- lyse samt selskabsspecifikke og markedstekniske elementer (begivenheder der påvirker både selskabets finansielle og driftsmæssige profil). Analysens omsætnings- og indtjeningsestimater er baseret på segmenterede modeller under anvendelse af subjektive vurderinger af relevante fremtidige markedstendenser og konjunkturforventnin- ger. De heraf fremkomne resultater er samlet i en værdiansættelsesmodel, som også tager højde for den seneste udvikling i historiske rapporter. Endvidere tages der højde for selskabets egne samt konkurrerende selskabers forventninger. Risikovurdering og følsomhed En vurdering af de væsentligste risikoforhold og en kategorisering af risikoen (lav, middel eller høj) i forbindelse med anbefalingerne og holdningerne til denne analyse, her- under en følsomhedsanalyse, er gengivet i den senest udsendte Aktienyt på dette selskab. Heraf fremgår ligeledes en vurdering af selskabets konkurrenceposition, som scores på en skala fra 1 til 5, hvor en høj score er ensbetydende med en stærk konkurrenceposition. De anførte risikofaktorer og følsomhedsanalysen kan dog ikke anses for at være udtømmende. Valutakursrisiko Såfremt aktiekursen er noteret i en anden valuta end danske kroner
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