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Aktiekommentar Tryg Aktiekommentar Tryg Køb Stærk indtjening i Tryg-regnskab Uændret Aktuel kurs: Vi fastholder Købs-anbefalingen på Tryg efter et stærkt 2. kvartal, der overbeviser om Trygs fremdrift. Indtægtsfaldet er reduceret, og det forsikringstekniske resul- 560,00 DKK tat er væsentligt bedre end forventet. Fortsætter Tryg indtjeningsfremdriften i den nære fremtid kan det bane vejen for endnu højere værdiansættelse. Begivenhed: 2. kvartalsregnskab Tryg har her til morgen offentliggjort 2. kvartalsregnskab 2014. Baggrund: Hovedtallene i regnskabet i forhold til vores og markedsforventningerne fremgår i tabel 1. Tabel 1. Hovedtal for 2. kvartal 2014 Tryg Sydbank- Markeds- realiseret estimater forventninger Bruttopræmieindtægter 4.711 4.760 4.723 Forsikringsteknisk resultat 941 866 681 Investeringsresultat 259 247 139 Resultat før skat 1150 1102 810 Nettoresultat 869 838 620 Combined Ratio 80,7% 82,2% 86,1% Kilde: Tryg og Sydbank. Bruttopræmieindtægterne er 1% lavere, end vi forventede (på linje med markedsforventnin- gerne). Det forsikringstekniske resultat er 9% bedre, end vi forventede (+38% ift. markedsfor- ventningerne), og resultatet før skat er også bedre end forventet. Det forsikringstekniske resul- tat er positivt påvirket med 135 mio. kr. af engangseffekter (positive effekter fra ændrede pen- sionsforhold i Norge, negative fra implementeringen af et nyt it-system). Korrigeret for en- gangsposterne er det forsikringstekniske resultat lavere end vores høje forventninger – men stadig væsentligt bedre end markedsforventningerne. Konklusion: Regnskabet sender et stærkt signal om en fortsat forbedret indtjeningskraft i forlængelse af arbejdet med forandringer og effektiviseringer. På positivsiden bremser faldet i bruttopræmieindtægterne op – og tilbagegangen er på kun 0,5% i 2. kvartal (korrigeret for det ophørte samarbejde med Nordea i Sverige). Vi forventer, at trenden forbedres løbende i de kommende kvartaler. Det forsikringstekniske resultat afspejler et skadeforløb stort set som forventet, omkostninger på linje med vores forventninger – men væsentligt færre afløbsgevinster og så engangsind- tægten på de 135 mio. kr. Den underliggende udvikling hos Tryg er således i store træk som vi forventede. På divisionsniveau står ’Privat’ for den positive indtjeningsafvigelse, mens ’Erhverv’ rammer vores forventninger. Både ’Industri’ og ’Sverige’ har lidt lavere end ventede resultater. Den primære årsag til det bedre resultat i ’Privat’ er et lidt bedre skadeforløb og effekterne fra engangsindtægten. Tryg nr. 6/2014 Jacob Pedersen, CFA senioranalytiker tlf. +45 74 37 44 52 [email protected] 10-07-2014, kl.:11:29 sydbank.dk Aktieanalysen 1/3 I ’Erhverv’ er skadeforløbet lidt dårligere end ventet og afløbsgevinsterne er noget mindre, end vi ventede. Til gengæld er omkostningerne lavere. ’Industri’ har højere indtægter, end vi ven- tede men dårligere skadeforløb og lavere afløbsgevinster. Investeringsafkastet er bedre end ventet – særligt fordi match-porteføljen bidrager mere til af- kastet end vanligt. Det stærke regnskab ledsages dog af negative regulatoriske indslag. Det giver nemlig anled- ning til panderynker, at det norske finanstilsyn vurderer at Norsk Naturskadepool og Norsk Garantiordning kun i begrænset omfang bør indregnes i Trygs kapital. I dag indgår de med 1,2 mia. kr. i Trygs kapitalopgørelse. Trygs aktuelle overdækning er til sammenligning på 2,4-4,2 mia. kr. opgjort efter henholdsvis standardsolvensbehovet og det individuelle solvensbehov. Mulighed for blandt andet at indregne fremtidige overskud i kapitalopgørelsen sænker dog den potentielle negative effekt til omtrent halvdelen. Vi er langt fra sikre på, at det sidste ord er sagt i sagen omkring indregning af Naturskadepool og Garantiordning, men tallene viser tyde- ligt, at en tilpasning af reglerne kan gøre et mærkbart indhug i Trygs overdækning. Regnskabet afføder ingen ændringer i vores forventninger til Trygs indtjening i 2014 jf. tabel 2. Tabel 2. Sydbanks forventninger til Trygs indtjening Mio. kr. 2013 2014E Vækst 2015E Vækst 2016E Vækst Bruttopræmieindtægter 19.504 18.692 -4,2% 19.009 1,7% 19.399 2,1% Teknisk resultat 2.496 2.622 5,1% 2.450 -6,6% 2.598 6,0% Resultat før skat 2.993 2.988 -0,2% 2.693 -9,9% 2.848 5,7% Nettoresultat 2.369 2.271 -4,1% 2.060 -9,3% 2.179 5,7% EPS (DKK) 39,38 38,89 -1,2% 36,51 -6,1% 39,99 9,5% Combined Ratio 87,5% 86,3% - 87,8% - 87,8% - Kilde: Sydbank Regnskabet understreger, at Tryg indtjeningsmæssigt fortsætter fremdriften. Der udestår sta- dig 260 mio.kr. af besparelsesprogrammet, og det vil støtte indtjeningen yderligere i de kom- mende kvartaler. Trygs største aktionær, Tryghedsgruppen, der sidder på 60% af aktierne, har luftet tanker om at påbegynde udlodning til de danske forsikringstagere af det udbytte, som Tryg udbetaler til Tryghedsgruppen. En sådan beslutning vil efter vores vurdering styrke Trygs position på det danske forsikringsmarked yderligere, og det kan støtte selskabets vækst i bruttopræmieind- tægterne fra 2016. Tryg handler i øjeblikket på en K/I på ca. 3,0x, og det niveau kan efter vores vurdering stige yderligere en tand, såfremt Tryg kan fortsætte de indtjeningsmæssige fremskridt. 2/3 Almindelige oplysninger om udarbejdelse af analyser i Sydbank Denne analyse er udarbejdet af Sydbanks aktieanalyseafdeling, som er en del af Sydbank Markets, en forretningsenhed i Sydbank. Sydbank er under tilsyn af Finanstilsy- net. Sydbank har udarbejdet procedurer, der skal forebygge og forhindre interessekonflikter og sikre, at de udarbejdede analyser har en høj standard og er baseret på ob- jektiv og uafhængig analyse. Disse procedurer er indarbejdet i forretningsgangene, der omfatter aktieanalyseaktiviteterne i Sydbank. Sydbanks analyser udarbejdes i overensstemmelse med Den Danske Finansanalytikerforenings anbefalinger og etiske regler. Finansielle modeller og metoder anvendt i denne analyse De anbefalinger og holdninger, der udtrykkes i denne analyse er dannet på basis af en kombination af Discounted Cash Flow-analyse, branchekendskab, peer-group ana- lyse samt selskabsspecifikke og markedstekniske elementer (begivenheder der påvirker både selskabets finansielle og driftsmæssige profil). Analysens omsætnings- og indtjeningsestimater er baseret på segmenterede modeller under anvendelse af subjektive vurderinger af relevante fremtidige markedstendenser og konjunkturforventnin- ger. De heraf fremkomne resultater er samlet i en værdiansættelsesmodel, som også tager højde for den seneste udvikling i historiske rapporter. Endvidere tages der højde for selskabets egne samt konkurrerende selskabers forventninger. Risikovurdering og følsomhed En vurdering af de væsentligste risikoforhold og en kategorisering af risikoen (lav, middel eller høj) i forbindelse med anbefalingerne og holdningerne til denne analyse, her- under en følsomhedsanalyse, er gengivet i den senest udsendte Aktienyt på dette selskab. Heraf fremgår ligeledes en vurdering af selskabets konkurrenceposition, som scores på en skala fra 1 til 5, hvor en høj score er ensbetydende med en stærk konkurrenceposition. De anførte risikofaktorer og følsomhedsanalysen kan dog ikke anses for at være udtømmende. Valutakursrisiko Såfremt aktiekursen er noteret i en anden valuta end danske kroner kan valutakursudsving påføre investorer tab eller gevinst. Planlagte opdateringer af analysen Denne analyse planlægges opdateret kvartalsvist. Anbefalingsstruktur Inden for det seneste kvartal har Sydbank haft investeringsanbefalinger på 26 selskaber. Fordelingen af anbefalinger fremgår nedenfor under ”Fordeling af anbefalinger”. Betydningen af anbefalingerne på selskabsniveau fremgår nedenfor under kursudvikling. På selskabsniveau: Anbefaling Kursudvikling Tidshorisont Fordeling af anbefalinger Køb Bedre end gennemsnittet af virksomheden i kategorien 12 måneder 50,0% Hold På linje med gennemsnittet af virksomheder i kategorien 12 måneder 19,2% Sælg Dårligere end gennemsnittet af virksomheder i kategorien 12 måneder 30,8% Vi opdeler virksomhederne i to kategorier - cykliske og defensive aktier. Køb betyder således, at aktien vil klare sig relativt bedre end de øvrige selskaber i kategorien. Hold betyder, at aktien vil klare sig på linje med de øvrige selskaber i kategorien. Endelig betyder sælg, at vi forventer, at aktien vil klare sig dårligere end de øvrige aktier i kate- gorien. Eventuelle ændringer i anbefalingen i forhold til den seneste anbefaling på selskabet fremgår af denne analyse. Anbefalingsoversigt: Køb Hold Sælg A. P. Møller Mærsk Nordea Bang & Olufsen D/S NORDEN DSV D anske Bank FLSm idth NKT Holding SAS C y k lisk e a k t ie r Pandora Rockwool Vestas A L K -A b e lló C h r. H a n s e n N o vo zym e s C a rls b e rg C o lo p la s t R o ya l U n ib re w G N Sto re N o rd H . L u n d b e c k T o p d a n m a rk ISS T D C W illia m D e m a n t Defensive aktier Novo Nordisk Tryg For en uddybning af alle anbefalinger samt en historisk anbefalingsoversigt for selskabet henviser vi til www.sydbank.dk/investering/analyser/aktierHU ..UH Denne investeringsanalyse henvender sig til Sydbanks kunder og må ikke uden Sydbanks udtrykkelige samtykke offentliggøres eller distribueres videre. Analysen er udar- bejdet på grundlag af informationer fra kilder, som Sydbank finder troværdige. Sydbank påtager sig dog intet ansvar for mangler, herunder eventuelle fejl i kilder, trykfejl el- ler beregningsfejl, samt efterfølgende ændrede forudsætninger. Anbefalinger i analysen er udtryk for bankens generelle holdning og kan ikke alene danne grundlag for investeringsbeslutninger. Anbefalinger kan
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