Why “Race Suicide”? Cultural Factors in U.S
Journal of Interdisciplinary History, xliv:4 (Spring, 2014), 475–508. WHY “RACE SUICIDE”? Trent MacNamara Why “Race Suicide”? Cultural Factors in U.S. Fertility Decline, 1903–1908 “If in Europe they have but four Births to a marriage,” wrote Ben Franklin in 1751, “we may here reckon eight.” Franklin’s near-accurate assessment of abun- dant American fertility inspired Robert Malthus’ Essay on the Principle of Population (London, 1798) linking widespread misery to unchecked human birth. Yet even as Malthus wrote, Ameri- can birthrates were beginning to decline. Total fertility rates fell steadily through the 1930s, when they brieºy dipped below re- placement level before booming (through the early 1960s), busting (during the 1960s and 1970s), and leveling off at 2.0 or so, where they remain.1 The challenge of isolating underlying causes and processes in fertility declines like the American one has frustrated generations of demographers, historians, and other scholars of reproductive eth- ics. No consensus about how to explain fertility differences across time and space, or even about whether such explanation is feasible, has emerged. Since quantiªable socioeconomic indicators alone do not appear to be sufªcient, demographers have begun to pay in- creasing (and increasingly sophisticated) attention to qualitative and “cultural” evidence as a nexus of contingency in historical fer- tility behavior.2 Trent MacNamara is a Ph.D. candidate, Dept. of History, Columbia University. © 2014 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, Inc., doi:10.1162/JINH_a_00611 1 For the timing of U.S. fertility decline, see Ansley J. Coale and Melvin Zelnik, New Esti- mates of Fertility and Population in the United States (Princeton, 1963).
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