February 2012 Report 9 2058 Science Embraced Government-funded Science under the Microscope Project 2058: Report 9 February 2012 Science Embraced Government-funded Science under the Microscope Report name Science Embraced: Government-funded Science under the Microscope Published Copyright © Sustainable Future Institute Limited, February 2012 ISBN 978-1-877473-22-7 (paperback) ISBN 978-1-877473-23-4 (PDF) This document is available at www.mcguinnessinstitute.org and may be reproduced or cited provided the source is acknowledged. Prepared by The McGuinness Institute (previously the Sustainable Future Institute), as part of Project 2058 Authors Wendy McGuinness, Dr Robert Hickson and Diane White The research team Chris Aitken, Lisa Bazalo, Meghan Collins, Lucy Foster, Louise Grace-Pickering, Joe McCarter, Mark Newton, Jessica Prendergast and Rory Sarten The design team Kelly Gordon, Gillian McCarthy, Sophie Taylor and Miriam White External reviewers Dr Sharon Adamson, Dr Janet Bradford-Grieve , Dr Anthony Cole, Roger Dennis, Professor Harlene Hayne, Professor Jack Heinemann, Sophie Howard, John Lancashire, James Palmer, Professor Jacqueline Rowarth, Professor Caroline Saunders, Professor Phil Silva, Professor Jeff Tallon, Dr Steve Thompson and Dr Morgan Williams About the Institute The McGuinness Institute is an independently funded non-partisan think tank. The main work programme of the Institute is Project 2058. The strategic aim of this project is to promote integrated long-term thinking, leadership and capacity-building so that New Zealand can effectively seek and create opportunities and explore and manage risks over the next 50 years. It is hoped that Project 2058 will help develop dialogue among government ministers, policy analysts and members of the public about alternative strategies for the future of New Zealand. For further information The McGuinness Institute Phone (04) 499 8888 Level 2, 5 Cable Street PO Box 24222 Wellington 6142 New Zealand www.mcguinnessinstitute.org Disclaimer The McGuinness Institute has used reasonable care in collecting and presenting the information provided in this publication. However, the Institute makes no representation or endorsement that this resource will be relevant or appropriate for its readers’ purposes and does not guarantee the accuracy of the information at any particular time for any particular purpose. The Institute is not liable for any adverse consequences, whether they be direct or indirect, arising from reliance on the content of this publication. Where this publication contains links to any website or other source, such links are provided solely for information purposes and the Institute is not liable for the content of such website or other source. Publishing This publication has been produced by companies applying sustainable practices within their businesses. It is printed on 9lives Uncoated stock, which is from 100% FSC recycled post consumer waste. Manufactured under the environmental management system ISO 14001 the pulp is Totally Chlorine-Free (TCF). The McGuinness Institute is grateful for the work of Creative Commons, which inspired our approach to copyright. This work is available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivatives 3.0 New Zealand Licence. To view a copy of this licence visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/nz Contents Foreword ________________________________________________________________________1 Executive Summary _______________________________________________________________2 1. Purpose ________________________________________________________________________10 1.1 The McGuinness Institute and Project 2058 _____________________________________________ 10 1.2 What is Government-funded Science? ________________________________________________ 11 1.3 What is a National Sustainable Development Strategy? __________________________________ 12 1.4 What is the Relationship Between Government-funded Science and an NSDS? _______________ 13 2. Methodology ____________________________________________________________________14 2.1 Background _____________________________________________________________________ 14 2.2 Method _________________________________________________________________________ 14 2.3 Limitations and Boundaries ________________________________________________________ 17 3. Historical Context: The Four Eras of Government-funded Science in New Zealand ______19 3.1 The First Era: 1865 to 1926 – Gradual Organisation ____________________________________ 19 3.2 The Second Era: 1926 to 1989 – One Dominant Institution ______________________________ 19 3.3 The Third Era: 1989 to 2010 – The Tri-institutional Framework __________________________ 20 3.4 The Fourth Era: From 2010 – The Bi-institutional Framework ___________________________ 20 3.5 Implications for the Future ________________________________________________________ 25 4. Global Context: Weak Signals and Wild Cards ______________________________________26 4.1 Addressing Weak Signals and Wild Cards _____________________________________________ 27 4.2 Using Foresight to Create Intelligent Countries ________________________________________ 28 4.3 Implications for the Future ________________________________________________________ 29 5. Policy Context: An Analysis of Science Policy _______________________________________31 5.1 Twelve Trends in Science Policy ____________________________________________________ 31 5.2 Implications for the Future ________________________________________________________ 37 6. The Purpose of Government-funded Science ________________________________________39 6.1 Mission ________________________________________________________________________ 39 6.2 Values __________________________________________________________________________ 40 6.3 Vision _________________________________________________________________________ 42 6.4 Discussion ______________________________________________________________________ 43 7. The Strategy Driving Government-funded Science ___________________________________44 7.1 Strategic Intent __________________________________________________________________ 44 7.2 Strategic Drivers _________________________________________________________________ 46 7.3 Strategic Enablers ________________________________________________________________ 46 7.4 Discussion ______________________________________________________________________ 78 8. The Execution of the Strategy _____________________________________________________79 8.1 Targets and Initiatives _____________________________________________________________ 79 8.2 Performance Indicators ____________________________________________________________ 80 8.3 Strategy Map ____________________________________________________________________ 90 8.4 Discussion ______________________________________________________________________ 92 9. Policy Knots: Strategic Questions that Exist in Government-funded Science _____________93 9.1 High-level Strategic Questions Related to Purpose ______________________________________ 93 9.2 Strategic Questions for the Minister of Science and Innovation ____________________________ 99 9.3 Strategic Questions for the Ministry of Science and Innovation___________________________ 100 9.4 Strategic Questions for Universities ________________________________________________ 107 9.5 Strategic Questions for the Science Community _______________________________________ 109 9.6 Implications for the Future _______________________________________________________ 112 10. The Optimal Government-funded Science System for New Zealand ___________________113 10.1 Myths Underlying Current Government-funded Science _______________________________ 113 10.2 Recalibrating the System _________________________________________________________ 116 10.3 Revisiting the Nine Pillars ________________________________________________________ 122 10.4 Recommendations for Science Policy _______________________________________________ 127 Glossary _______________________________________________________________________129 Abbreviations __________________________________________________________________132 References _____________________________________________________________________162 Figures Figure 1 The Strategy Pyramid 3 Figure 2 Vote S&I – Sector Appropriations, 2010/11 (Estimated Actual) 11 Figure 3 The Cynefin Framework 26 Figure 4 Ministry of Science and Innovation Performance Framework (Outcomes, Impacts, 41 Outputs), 2011 Figure 5 Priority Investment Areas, 2010 (Budget) 45 Figure 6 Major Issues Facing Science, 2008 47 Figure 7 The Government-funded Science Ecosystem 48 Figure 8 Graduation Rates at First-stage University Level as a Percentage of the Relevant Age 49 Cohort, 2006 Figure 9 Annual Labour Costs Employing a Recent Versus Experienced Male Tertiary Graduate 49 Figure 10 R&D in OECD and Non-OECD Countries, 2009 50 Figure 11 Vote S&I – Total Appropriations, 2011/12 (Budget) ($million) 54 Figure 12 Vote RS&T and Vote S&I – Total Appropriations Per Capita, 1999/00–2014/15 55 Figure 13 Vote RS&T and Vote S&I – Total Appropriations, 2006/07–2014/15 55 Figure 14 Vote RS&T – CRI Total Funding: Percentage of allocation to each CRI, 2010/11 (Indicative) 58 Figure 15 Vote RS&T – CRI Core Funding: Percentage of allocation to each CRI, 2010/11 (Indicative 58 Proposed) Figure 16 Vote RS&T – CRI Total Funding: Percentage of CRI Core Funding to CRI Total 59 Funding for each CRI, 2010/11 (Indicative) Figure 17 Vote RS&T and Vote S&I – Social Research Output Class: