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3 Risk Assessment 3 RISK ASSESSMENT 44 CFR Requirement §201.6(c)(2): [The plan shall include] A risk assessment that provides the factual basis for activities proposed in the strategy to reduce losses from identified hazards. Local risk assessments must provide sufficient information to enable the jurisdiction to identify and prioritize appropriate mitigation actions to reduce losses from identified hazards. The risk assessment process identifies and profiles relevant hazards and assesses the exposure of lives, property, and infrastructure to these hazards. The goal of the risk assessment is to estimate the potential loss in Reno County, including loss of life, personal injury, property damage, and economic loss, from a hazard event. The risk assessment process allows communities in Reno County to better understand their potential risk from natural and man-made hazards and provides a framework for developing and prioritizing mitigation actions to reduce risk from future hazard events. The risk assessment for Reno County and its jurisdictions followed the methodology described in the FEMA publication 386-2, Understanding Your Risks: Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses (2002), which includes a four-step process: • Identify Hazards • Profile Hazard Events • Inventory Assets • Estimate Losses This chapter is divided into four parts: hazard identification, hazard profiles, vulnerability assessment, and summary of key issues: • Section 3.1 Hazard Identification identifies the hazards that threaten the planning area and describes why some hazards have been omitted from further consideration. • Section 3.2 Hazard Profiles describes the location in the planning area, previous occurrences of hazard events, probability of future occurrence, and potential magnitude or severity for each identified hazard. • Section 3.3 Vulnerability Assessment assesses the County’s total exposure to natural and man-made hazards, considering critical facilities and other community assets at risk, and assessing growth and development trends. This section also describes vulnerability and estimates potential losses to structures in identified hazard areas, and addresses land use and development trends. This section includes steps 3 and 4 from above. Reno County, Kansas 3.1 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT 3.1 Hazard Identification Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the type…of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction. 3.1.1 Methodology The Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee (HMPC) reviewed data and discussed the impacts of each of the hazards recommended by FEMA for consideration, which are listed alphabetically below: • Avalanche • Hurricane • Coastal Erosion • Land Subsidence / Sinkhole • Coastal Storm • Landslide • Dam and Levee Failure • Severe Winter Storm • Drought • Tornado • Earthquake • Tsunami • Expansive Soils • Volcano • Extreme Heat • Wildfire • Flood • Windstorm • Hailstorm In addition to reviewing the hazards recommended by FEMA for consideration, the HMPC also considered the following additional hazards that were included in the State of Kansas Hazard Mitigation Plan: • Agricultural Infestation • Expansive Soils • Fog • Hazardous Materials • Major Disease Outbreak • Soil Erosion & Dust • Utility/Infrastructure Failure Data on the past impacts and future probability of these hazards in the Reno County planning area was collected from the following sources: • Kansas Hazard Mitigation Plan (November 2007) • Reno County Hazards Analysis Plan (August 2002) • Information on past hazard events from the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database (SHELDUS), a component of the University of South Carolina Hazards Research Lab that compiles county-level hazard data for 18 different natural hazard event types Reno County, Kansas 3.2 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT • Information on past extreme weather and climate events from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) • Disaster declaration history from FEMA, the Public Entity Risk Institute, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency Disaster Declarations • Information provided by members of the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee • Various articles and publications available on the internet (sources are indicated where data is cited) The HMPC eliminated some hazards from further profiling because they do not occur in the planning area or their impacts were not considered significant in relation to other hazards. Table 3.1 lists these hazards and provides a brief explanation for their elimination. Table 3.1 Hazards Not Profiled in the Plan Hazard Explanation for Omission Avalanche There are no mountains in the planning area. Coastal Erosion Planning area is not near coastal areas. Coastal Storm Planning area is not near coastal areas. Hurricane Planning area is not near coastal areas. Tsunami Planning area is not near coastal areas. Volcano There are no volcanic mountains in the planning area. Radiological Manmade hazard not profiled Terrorism Manmade hazard not profiled The HMPC identified 20 natural and man-made hazards that significantly affect the planning area and organized these hazards to be consistent with the Kansas Hazard Mitigation Plan (2007). These hazards are listed below and profiled in further detail in the next sections. • Agricultural Infestation • Hazardous Materials • Dam and Levee Failure • Land Subsidence/Sinkhole • Drought • Landslide • Disease Outbreak • Lightning • Earthquake • Soil Erosion and Dust • Expansive Soils • Tornado • Extreme Heat • Utility/Infrastructure Failure • Flood • Wildfire • Fog • Windstorm • Hailstorm • Winter Storm Multi-Jurisdictional Risk Assessment For this multi-jurisdictional plan, the risk assessment assesses each jurisdiction’s risks where they deviate from the risks facing the entire planning area. Reno County is a large County geographically (1,254 square miles) and is fairly uniform in terms of climate and topography as Reno County, Kansas 3.3 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT well as construction characteristics and development trends. Accordingly, overall hazards and vulnerability do not vary greatly across the planning area for most hazards. Weather-related hazards, such as drought, extreme heat, hailstorm, lightning, tornado, windstorm, and winter storm, affect the entire planning area. In addition, as the individual hazard profiles reveal, the hazards of agricultural infestation, soil erosion and dust, expansive soils, land subsidence, and earthquake also affect the entire planning area and all participating jurisdictions with relatively the same level of risk. The hazards that do vary across the planning area include dam and levee failure, flood, and wildfire. In Section 3.1, Hazard Identification, Table 3.2 indicates with a checkmark that all jurisdictions in the planning area have some risk to each of the hazards profiled in this plan. In Section 3.2, Hazard Profiles, the Geographic Location section discusses how the hazard varies among jurisdictions across the planning area. The Previous Occurrences section lists the best available data on where past events have occurred and the associated losses to particular jurisdictions. Section 3.2.2 Community Asset Inventory, describes critical facilities and other community assets by jurisdiction. Section 3.3.3 Vulnerability by Hazard, identifies structures and estimates potential losses by jurisdiction where data is available and hazard areas are identified for hazards of moderate and high planning significance. The previous chapter, Chapter 2 Planning Area Profile and Capabilities, discussed the existing mitigation capabilities of each jurisdiction, such as plans and policies, personnel, and financial resources, which are currently used to reduce hazard losses. For the school districts that participated in the development of this plan, specific assets are included in the city or county maps and risk assessments in which those specific assets are located. Please refer to the school district maps in chapter 2 as a reference for school district boundaries. For school districts, the risk goes beyond the school buildings themselves as hazards can affect their tax base, the resident locations of attending students, bus routes, etc. With all of these considerations, all hazards that affect the city and or county areas that the school district boundaries overlap also apply to the school districts that occur within those boundaries. Please also note that while South Hutchinson and Turon did not officially participate in the development of this plan, the risk assessment provides information on these geographic areas to ensure the entire planning area within Reno County is assessed as school district boundaries cross in to these two cities. Reno County, Kansas 3.4 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT Table 3.2 Hazards Identified for Each Participating Jurisdiction n o s n i y e k i t h r n c o n i t o n a o u e n u e r r s n l o o l o g b H n P i s o t i C r r a d v d w n a i g y e h n h e i n y l r t t o e g o c n o t t k v v l i b h t u n v r r l l n l e c e i e b r u a u i a l r o y a u Hazards R A A B H H L N P P P S S T W Agricultural V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Infestation Dam and Levee Failure V V V V Drought V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Disease Outbreak V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Earthquake V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Expansive Soils V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Extreme Heat V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Flood V V V V V V V V V V V Fog V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Hailstorm V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Hazardous V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Materials Land Subsidence/ V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Sinkhole Landslide V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Lightning V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Soil Erosion and Dust V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Tornado V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Utility Failure V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Wildfire V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Windstorm V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Winter Storm V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V 3.1.2 Disaster Declaration History One method used by the HMPC to identify hazards was to examine events that triggered federal and/or state disaster declarations.
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