3 RISK ASSESSMENT
44 CFR Requirement §201.6(c)(2): [The plan shall include] A risk assessment that provides the factual basis for activities proposed in the strategy to reduce losses from identified hazards. Local risk assessments must provide sufficient information to enable the jurisdiction to identify and prioritize appropriate mitigation actions to reduce losses from identified hazards.
The risk assessment process identifies and profiles relevant hazards and assesses the exposure of lives, property, and infrastructure to these hazards. The goal of the risk assessment is to estimate the potential loss in Reno County, including loss of life, personal injury, property damage, and economic loss, from a hazard event. The risk assessment process allows communities in Reno County to better understand their potential risk from natural and man-made hazards and provides a framework for developing and prioritizing mitigation actions to reduce risk from future hazard events.
The risk assessment for Reno County and its jurisdictions followed the methodology described in the FEMA publication 386-2, Understanding Your Risks: Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses (2002), which includes a four-step process:
• Identify Hazards • Profile Hazard Events • Inventory Assets • Estimate Losses
This chapter is divided into four parts: hazard identification, hazard profiles, vulnerability assessment, and summary of key issues:
• Section 3.1 Hazard Identification identifies the hazards that threaten the planning area and describes why some hazards have been omitted from further consideration. • Section 3.2 Hazard Profiles describes the location in the planning area, previous occurrences of hazard events, probability of future occurrence, and potential magnitude or severity for each identified hazard. • Section 3.3 Vulnerability Assessment assesses the County’s total exposure to natural and man-made hazards, considering critical facilities and other community assets at risk, and assessing growth and development trends. This section also describes vulnerability and estimates potential losses to structures in identified hazard areas, and addresses land use and development trends. This section includes steps 3 and 4 from above.
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3.1 Hazard Identification
Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the type…of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction.
3.1.1 Methodology
The Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee (HMPC) reviewed data and discussed the impacts of each of the hazards recommended by FEMA for consideration, which are listed alphabetically below:
• Avalanche • Hurricane • Coastal Erosion • Land Subsidence / Sinkhole • Coastal Storm • Landslide • Dam and Levee Failure • Severe Winter Storm • Drought • Tornado • Earthquake • Tsunami • Expansive Soils • Volcano • Extreme Heat • Wildfire • Flood • Windstorm • Hailstorm
In addition to reviewing the hazards recommended by FEMA for consideration, the HMPC also considered the following additional hazards that were included in the State of Kansas Hazard Mitigation Plan:
• Agricultural Infestation • Expansive Soils • Fog • Hazardous Materials • Major Disease Outbreak • Soil Erosion & Dust • Utility/Infrastructure Failure
Data on the past impacts and future probability of these hazards in the Reno County planning area was collected from the following sources:
• Kansas Hazard Mitigation Plan (November 2007) • Reno County Hazards Analysis Plan (August 2002) • Information on past hazard events from the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database (SHELDUS), a component of the University of South Carolina Hazards Research Lab that compiles county-level hazard data for 18 different natural hazard event types
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• Information on past extreme weather and climate events from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) • Disaster declaration history from FEMA, the Public Entity Risk Institute, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency Disaster Declarations • Information provided by members of the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee • Various articles and publications available on the internet (sources are indicated where data is cited)
The HMPC eliminated some hazards from further profiling because they do not occur in the planning area or their impacts were not considered significant in relation to other hazards. Table 3.1 lists these hazards and provides a brief explanation for their elimination.
Table 3.1 Hazards Not Profiled in the Plan
Hazard Explanation for Omission Avalanche There are no mountains in the planning area. Coastal Erosion Planning area is not near coastal areas. Coastal Storm Planning area is not near coastal areas. Hurricane Planning area is not near coastal areas. Tsunami Planning area is not near coastal areas. Volcano There are no volcanic mountains in the planning area. Radiological Manmade hazard not profiled Terrorism Manmade hazard not profiled
The HMPC identified 20 natural and man-made hazards that significantly affect the planning area and organized these hazards to be consistent with the Kansas Hazard Mitigation Plan (2007). These hazards are listed below and profiled in further detail in the next sections.
• Agricultural Infestation • Hazardous Materials • Dam and Levee Failure • Land Subsidence/Sinkhole • Drought • Landslide • Disease Outbreak • Lightning • Earthquake • Soil Erosion and Dust • Expansive Soils • Tornado • Extreme Heat • Utility/Infrastructure Failure • Flood • Wildfire • Fog • Windstorm • Hailstorm • Winter Storm
Multi-Jurisdictional Risk Assessment
For this multi-jurisdictional plan, the risk assessment assesses each jurisdiction’s risks where they deviate from the risks facing the entire planning area. Reno County is a large County geographically (1,254 square miles) and is fairly uniform in terms of climate and topography as Reno County, Kansas 3.3 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
well as construction characteristics and development trends. Accordingly, overall hazards and vulnerability do not vary greatly across the planning area for most hazards. Weather-related hazards, such as drought, extreme heat, hailstorm, lightning, tornado, windstorm, and winter storm, affect the entire planning area. In addition, as the individual hazard profiles reveal, the hazards of agricultural infestation, soil erosion and dust, expansive soils, land subsidence, and earthquake also affect the entire planning area and all participating jurisdictions with relatively the same level of risk.
The hazards that do vary across the planning area include dam and levee failure, flood, and wildfire. In Section 3.1, Hazard Identification, Table 3.2 indicates with a checkmark that all jurisdictions in the planning area have some risk to each of the hazards profiled in this plan. In Section 3.2, Hazard Profiles, the Geographic Location section discusses how the hazard varies among jurisdictions across the planning area. The Previous Occurrences section lists the best available data on where past events have occurred and the associated losses to particular jurisdictions. Section 3.2.2 Community Asset Inventory, describes critical facilities and other community assets by jurisdiction. Section 3.3.3 Vulnerability by Hazard, identifies structures and estimates potential losses by jurisdiction where data is available and hazard areas are identified for hazards of moderate and high planning significance.
The previous chapter, Chapter 2 Planning Area Profile and Capabilities, discussed the existing mitigation capabilities of each jurisdiction, such as plans and policies, personnel, and financial resources, which are currently used to reduce hazard losses. For the school districts that participated in the development of this plan, specific assets are included in the city or county maps and risk assessments in which those specific assets are located. Please refer to the school district maps in chapter 2 as a reference for school district boundaries. For school districts, the risk goes beyond the school buildings themselves as hazards can affect their tax base, the resident locations of attending students, bus routes, etc. With all of these considerations, all hazards that affect the city and or county areas that the school district boundaries overlap also apply to the school districts that occur within those boundaries. Please also note that while South Hutchinson and Turon did not officially participate in the development of this plan, the risk assessment provides information on these geographic areas to ensure the entire planning area within Reno County is assessed as school district boundaries cross in to these two cities.
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Table 3.2 Hazards Identified for Each Participating Jurisdiction
n o s n
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k i t h r n
c o n i t
o
n a o u e n u e r r s n l o o l o g
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C r r a d v d w n a i g y e h n h e i n y l r t t o e g o c n o t t k v v l i b h t u n v r r l l n l e c e i e b r u a u i a l r o y a u
Hazards R A A B H H L N P P P S S T W Agricultural V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Infestation Dam and Levee Failure V V V V Drought V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Disease Outbreak V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Earthquake V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Expansive Soils V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Extreme Heat V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Flood V V V V V V V V V V V Fog V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Hailstorm V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Hazardous V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Materials Land Subsidence/ V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Sinkhole Landslide V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Lightning V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Soil Erosion and Dust V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Tornado V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Utility Failure V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Wildfire V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Windstorm V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V Winter Storm V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V
3.1.2 Disaster Declaration History
One method used by the HMPC to identify hazards was to examine events that triggered federal and/or state disaster declarations. Federal and/or state declarations may be granted when the severity and magnitude of an event surpasses the ability of the local government to respond and recover. Disaster assistance is supplemental and sequential. When the local government’s capacity has been surpassed, a state disaster declaration may be issued, allowing for the provision of state assistance. Should the disaster be so severe that both the local and state governments’ capacities are exceeded; a federal emergency or disaster declaration may be issued allowing for the provision of federal assistance.
The federal government may issue a disaster declaration through FEMA, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and/or the Small Business Administration. FEMA also issues emergency declarations, which are more limited in scope and do not include the long-term federal recovery Reno County, Kansas 3.5 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
programs of major disaster declarations. Determinations for declaration type are based on scale and type of damages and institutions or industrial sectors affected.
A USDA disaster declaration certifies that the affected county has suffered at least a 30 percent loss in one or more crop or livestock areas and provides affected producers with access to low- interest loans and other programs to help mitigate disaster impacts. In accordance with the Consolidated Farm and Rural Development Act, counties neighboring those receiving disaster declarations are named as contiguous disaster counties and are eligible for the same assistance.
Table 3.3 lists federal disaster declarations received by Reno County. Many of the disaster events were regional or statewide; therefore, reported costs are not accurate reflections of losses to Reno County. Of the ten major disaster declarations, seven were for severe storms, tornadoes and flooding. Two were severe winter storms and was for a Fire Management Assistance Declaration.
Table 3.3 Reno County Disaster Declarations, 1965-2009
Estimated Disaster Date Disaster Damage in Number Declared Description Counties Involved Kansas ($)
1849 06/25/2009 Severe Storms, Anderson, Barber, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Cherokee, Coffey, (Incident Period Flooding, Crawford, Elk, Finney, Greenwood, Harper, Harvey, Kingman, 4/25/2009 to Straight-line Labette, Linn, Lyon, Marion, Marshall, Montgomery, Morris, $13,173,860 5/16/2009) Winds, and Neosho, Reno, Rice, Sumner, Wabaunsee, Wilson Tornadoes 1848 06/24/2009 Severe Winter Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clark, Coffey, (Incident Period Storm and Comanche, Cowley, Dickinson, Edwards, Elk, Grant, 3/26/ to Record and Greenwood, Harvey, Haskell, Kearney, Kingman, Kiowa, Lyon, $14,808,826 3/29/2009) Near Record Marion, McPherson, Meade, Pratt, Reno, Rice, Seward, Snow Stafford, Stanton, Stevens, Sumner, Woodson 1776 07/09/2008 Severe Storms, Barber, Barton, Bourbon, Brown, Butler, Chautauqua, Flooding, Cherokee, Clark, Clay, Comanche, Cowley, Crawford, Tornadoes Decatur, Dickinson, Edwards, Elk, Ellis, Ellsworth, Franklin, Gove, Graham, Harper, Haskell, Hodgeman, Jackson, Jewell, Kingman, Kiowa, Lane, Linn, Logan, Mitchell, Montgomery, $27,058,127 Ness, Norton, Osborne, Pawnee, Phillips, Pratt, Reno, Republic, Riley, Rooks, Rush, Saline, Seward, Sheridan, Smith, Stafford, Sumner, Thomas, Trego, Wallace and Wilson Counties. 1741 02/01/2008 Winter Storms Atchison, Barber, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase, Cherokee, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche, Crawford, Dickinson, Doniphan, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth, Ford, Geary, Graham, Gove, Harvey, Hodgeman, Jackson, Jefferson, Jewell, Kingman, Kiowa, Labette, Leavenworth, Lincoln, Logan, Lyon, Marion, Marshall, McPherson, Miami, Mitchell, Morris, Nemaha, Osage, Osborne, Ottawa, Pawnee, Phillips, $171,118,860 Pottawatomie, Pratt, Reno, Republic, Rice, Riley, Rooks, Rush, Russell, Saline, Sedgwick, Shawnee, Sheridan, Smith, Stafford, Thomas, Wabaunsee, Wallace, Washington, and Woodson Counties.
1699 05/06/2007 Severe Storms, Barton, Brown, Chase, Cherokee, Clay, Cloud, Comanche, $62,000,000 Flooding, Cowley, Dickinson, Doniphan, Douglas, Edwards, Ellsworth,
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Estimated Disaster Date Disaster Damage in Number Declared Description Counties Involved Kansas ($) Tornadoes Harper, Harvey, Jackson, Kingman, Kiowa, Leavenworth, Lincoln, Lyon, Marshall, McPherson, Morris, Nemaha, Osage, Osborne, Ottawa, Pawnee, Phillips, Pottawatomie, Pratt, Reno, Rice, Riley, Saline, Shawnee, Smith, Stafford, Sumner, Wabaunsee, Washington 1579 02/08/2005 Severe Winter Anderson, Atchison, Barber, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Storms, Heavy Clark, Coffey, Comanche, Cowley, Crawford, Douglas, Elk, Rains, and Franklin, Greenwood, Harper, Harvey, Jefferson, Kingman, Flooding Lyon, Marion, Morris, Osage, Pratt, Reno, Rice, Sedgwick, $84,447,071 Shawnee, Sumner, Wabaunsee, Woodson, and Wyandotte Counties.
1273 05/04/1999 Tornadoes and Reno, Sedgwick and Sumner Counties $10,883,676 Severe Storms 1000 7/22/1993 Flooding, Atchison, Barton, Brown, Chase, Cherokee, Clay, Cloud, $137,038,990 Severe Storms Crawford, Dickinson, Doniphan, Douglas, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth, Geary, Graham, Harvey, Hodgeman, Jackson, Jefferson, Jewell, Johnson, Lane, Leavenworth, Lincoln, Lyon, Marion, Marshall, McPherson, Mitchell, Morris, Nemaha, Ness, Osage, Osborne, Ottawa, Pawnee, Pottawatomie, Reno, Republic, Rice, Riley, Rooks, Rush, Russell, Saline, Sedgwick, Shawnee, Sheridan, Smith, Stafford, Sumner, Thomas, Trego, Wabaunsee, Washington, Wyandotte
403 9/28/1973 Severe Storms, Atchison, Barber, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase, Clay, Cloud, $18,851,282 Tornadoes, Coffey, Comanche, Cowley, Dickinson, Doniphan, Douglas, Flooding Edwards, Ellsworth, Franklin, Geary, Greenwood, Harper, Harvey, Jackson, Jefferson, Kingman, Kiowa, Leavenworth, Lincoln, Linn, Lyon, Marion, Marshall, McPherson, Miami, Morris, Nemaha, Osage, Ottawa, Pawnee, Pottawatomie, Pratt, Reno, Republic, Rice, Riley, Saline, Sedgwick, Shawnee, Stafford, Sumner, Wabaunsee, Washington, Woodson, Wyandotte
378 5/2/1973 Severe Storms, Atchison, Barber, Barton, Bourbon, Brown, Butler, $8,829,200 Flooding Chautauqua, Cherokee, Clark, Coffey, Crawford, Dickinson, Doniphan, Douglas, Edwards, Ellsworth, Ford, Franklin, Gray, Greenwood, Harper, Harvey, Haskell, Hodgeman, Jackson, Jefferson, Kingman, Kiowa, Labette, Leavenworth, Lincoln, Linn, Lyon, Marion, Marshall, McPherson, Meade, Miami, Montgomery , Morris, Nemaha, Ness, Osage, Osborne, Ottawa, Pawnee, Pottawatomie, Pratt, Reno, Republic, Rice, Rush, Russell, Saline, Sedgwick, Seward, Shawnee, Stafford, Stevens, Sumner, Wabaunsee, Washington, Woodson, Wyandotte
201 6/23/1965 Flooding Barton, Butler, Chase, Edwards, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray, $6,566,805 Greenwood, Hamilton, Harvey, Kearny, Lyon, Marion, McPherson, Pawnee, Reno, Rice, Sedgwick, Stafford, Stanton
Source: Federal Emergency Management Agency, www.fema.gov/; Public Entity Risk Institute, www.peripresdecusa.org/; Kansas Hazard Mitigation Plan.
Table 3.4 lists U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) disaster declarations and their causes for Reno County from the period 2005 to 2007.
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Table 3.4 USDA Disaster Declarations in Reno County 2005-2007
USDA Cause Disaster Number Date Drought Heat Excessive Hail High Lightning Tornadoes Severe Winter Moisture Winds Storms Storms M1578 2005 x x S2121 2005 x x x x x x S2413 2006 x x x M1699 2007 x x x S2525 2007 x x Source: USDA Farm Service Agency, www.fsa.usda.gov, http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/2005- 2007_elig_co_031208.xls
3.2 Hazard Profiles
Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the…location and extent of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction. The plan shall include information on previous occurrences of hazard events and on the probability of future hazard events.
3.2.1 Methodology
Each hazard identified in Section 3.1, Hazard Identification, is profiled individually in this section in alphabetical order for easier reference. The level of information presented in the profiles varies by hazard based on the information available. With each update of this plan, new information will be incorporated to provide for better evaluation and prioritization of the hazards that affect Reno County.
The sources used to collect information for these profiles include those mentioned in Section 3.1.1 as well as those cited individually in each hazard section. Detailed profiles for each of the identified hazards include information on the following characteristics of the hazard:
Hazard Description
This section consists of a general description of the hazard and the types of impacts it may have on a community. It also includes a ranking to indicate typical warning times and duration of hazard events. Definitions for these rankings are included in Table 3.5.
Geographic Location
This section describes the geographic extent or location of the hazard in the planning area. Where available, maps are used to indicate the areas of the planning area that are vulnerable to the subject hazard.
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Previous Occurrences
This section includes information on historic incidents and their impacts based upon the sources described in Section 3.1 Hazard Identification and the information provided by the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee.
Probability of Future Occurrence
The frequency of past events is used to gauge the likelihood of future occurrences. Where possible, the probability or chance of occurrence was calculated based on historical data. Probability was determined by dividing the number of events observed by the number of years and multiplying by 100. This gives the percent chance of the event happening in any given year. An example would be three droughts occurring over a 30-year period, which suggests a 10 percent chance of a drought occurring in any given year. The probability was assigned a rank as defined in Table 3.5.
Magnitude/Severity
The magnitude of the impact of a hazard event (past and perceived) is related directly to the vulnerability of the people, property, and the environment it affects. This is a function of when the event occurs, the location affected, the resilience of the community, and the effectiveness of the emergency response and disaster recovery efforts.
The magnitude of each profiled hazard is classified in the following manner:
• Level 4-Catastrophic—More than 50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than 30 days; and/or multiple deaths • Level 3-Critical—25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability • Level 2-Limited—10-25 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than a week; and/or injuries/illnesses do not result in permanent disability • Level 1-Negligible—Less than 10 percent of property severely damaged, shutdown of facilities and services for less than 24 hours; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable with first aid
Hazard Summary
To maintain a consistent reporting format, the Reno County Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee (HMPC) used the methodology from the MitigationPlan.com planning tool to prioritize the hazards. This prioritization was based on a calculated priority risk index (CPRI) that considered four elements of risk: probability, magnitude/severity, warning time, and duration. Table 3.5 defines the rankings for each element of risk. The CPRI for each hazard is provided in Table 3.6.
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Table 3.5 Calculated Priority Risk Index (CPRI) Element Definitions
Element/Level Characteristics Probability* 4 - Highly Likely Event is probable within the calendar year. Event has up to 1 in 1 year chance of occurring (1/1=100%) History of events is greater than 33% likely per year. Event is "Highly Likely" to occur
3 – Likely Event is probable within the next three years. Event has up to 1 in 3 years chance of occurring (1/3=33%) History of events is greater than 20% but less than or equal to 33% likely per year Event is "Likely" to occur
2 - Probable Event is probable within the next five years. Event has up to 1 in 5 years chance of occurring (1/5=20%) History of events is greater than 10% but less than or equal to 20% likely per year Event could "Possibly" occur
1 – Unlikely Event is possible within the next 10 years Event has up to 1 in 10 years chance of occurring (1/10=10%) History of events is less than or equal to 10% likely per year Event is "Unlikely" but is possible of occurring
Magnitude / Severity** 4 - Catastrophic Multiple deaths Complete shutdown of facilities for 30 or more days More than 50 percent of property is severely damaged
3 – Critical Injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least two weeks 25–50 percent of property is severely damaged
2 – Limited Injuries and/or illnesses do not result in permanent disability Complete shutdown of critical facilities for more than one week 10–25 percent of property is severely damaged
1 - Negligible Injuries and/or illnesses are treatable with first aid Minor quality of life lost Shutdown of critical facilities and services for 24 hours or less Less than 10 percent of property is severely damaged
Warning Time 4 Less Than 6 Hours 3 6-12 Hours 2 12-24 Hours 1 24+ Hours Duration 4 More Than 1 Week 3 Less Than 1 Week 2 Less Than 1 Day 1 Less Than 6 Hours Source: MitigationPlan.com * Based on history, using the definitions given, the likelihood of future events is quantified. ** According to the severity associated with past events or the probable worst case scenario possible in the state.
Using the rankings described in the table above, the formula used to determine each hazard’s CPRI, which includes weighting factors defined by MitigationPlan.com, was:
(Probability x .45) + (Magnitude/Severity x .30) + (Warning Time x .15) + (Duration x .10) = CPRI
Based on their CPRI scores, the hazards were separated into three categories of planning significance: High (3.0-4.0), Moderate (2.0-2.9), and Low (1.0-1.9).
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These terms relate to the level of planning analysis to be given to the particular hazard in the risk assessment process and are not meant to suggest that a hazard would have only limited impact. In order to focus on the most critical hazards, those assigned a level of significant or moderate were given more extensive attention in the remainder of this analysis (e.g., quantitative analysis or loss estimation), while those with a low planning significance were addressed in more general or qualitative ways. Table 3.6 summarizes the results of the completed Hazard Profiles using this methodology.
Table 3.6 Hazard Profile Summary for Reno County
Warning Planning Hazard Type Probability Magnitude Time Duration CPRI Significance Tornado 4 4 4 1 3.7 High Utility/Infrastructure 4 3 4 3 3.6 High Failure Flood 4 3 2 3 3.3 High Winter Storm 4 3 2 3 3.3 High Hazardous Materials 4 2 4 2 3.2 High Wind Storm 4 2 2 2 2.9 Moderate Hail Storm 4 1 4 1 2.8 Moderate Disease Outbreak 3 3 1 4 2.8 Moderate Wildfire 3 2 4 2 2.75 Moderate Levee Failure 2 3 4 3 2.7 Moderate Extreme Heat 3 2 1 4 2.5 Moderate Land 3 2 1 4 2.5 Moderate Subsidence/Sinkhole Agricultural Infestation 2 2 1 4 2.05 Moderate Soil Erosion / Dust 2 1 1 4 1.75 Low Lightning 2 1 2 1 1.6 Low Earthquake 1 1 4 1 1.45 Low Drought 1 1 1 4 1.3 Low Expansive Soils 1 1 1 4 1.3 Low Dam Failure 1 1 2 1 1.15 Low Fog 1 1 2 1 1.15 Low Landslide 1 1 1 1 1 Low Source: Reno County HMPC
3.2.2 Agricultural Infestation
Description
Agricultural infestation is the naturally occurring infection of crops or livestock with insects, vermin, or diseases that render the crops or livestock unfit for consumption or use. Because of Kansas’ substantial agricultural industry and related facilities and locations, the potential for infestation of crops or livestock pose a significant risk to the economy of the state. Reno County, Kansas 3.11 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
Some level of agricultural infestation is normal for Kansas farmers and ranchers. The concern is when the level of an infestation escalates suddenly, or a new infestation appears, overwhelming normal control efforts. The levels and types of agricultural infestation appear to vary by many factors, including cycles of heavy rains and drought.
One of the key concerns regarding this hazard is the potential introduction of a rapid and economically devastating foreign animal disease, such as foot and mouth disease and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) disease, to Kansas. Because Kansas is a major cattle state, with cattle raised locally as well as imported into the state, the potential for highly contagious diseases such as these is a continuing, significant threat to the economy of the state. The loss of milk production, abortion, decrease in production, and other lasting problems resulting from an outbreak could cause continuous and severe economic losses, widespread unemployment, and potential civil disorder. It would affect not only farmers, ranchers, and butchers, but also support and related industries.
In 2002, the state experienced a foot and mouth scare. While the disease was later determined to not be foot and mouth, the episode clearly demonstrated the level of concern and the importance of being able to quickly respond to such a disease and to be able to quickly quarantine, treat, and/or destroy infected animals. In 2003, the first confirmed domestic case of BSE disease was reported in Washington State and required quarantining and/or destruction of several herds. These episodes illustrate the vulnerability of Kansas to such an infestation hazard. In Reno County, cattle and milk production averaged over $42 million per year from 2002-2006 (Institute for Policy and Social Research, University of Kansas, January, 2009). The importance of this agricultural sector makes the potential for a contagious disease outbreak in livestock a continuing, significant threat to the economy of the County.
Economically important crops in Kansas are also subject to various types of infestation. In particular, wheat is susceptible to leaf rust, wheat streak mosaic, barley yellow dwarf virus, strawbreaker, and tan spot. Sorghum losses can occur when a crop is infected with sooty stripe early in the growing season. Gray leaf spot is a growing problem for corn crops. The average value of crop harvests in Reno County from 1990 to 2006 was over $457 million (Institute for Policy and Social Research, University of Kansas, January, 2009). The significance of this agricultural sector in the local economy makes crop infestation a serious concern.
Infestation is not only a risk to crops in the field. Insect infestation can cause major losses to stored grain. It is estimated that damage to stored grain by the lesser grain borer, rice weevil, red flour beetle, and rusty grain beetle costs the United States about $500 million annually.
Warning Time: Level 1 — More than 24 hours
Duration: Level 4 — More than one week
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Geographic Location
The agricultural land in the entire planning area is subject to agricultural infestation. According to the 2007 Kansas Farm Facts, there are approximately 1,540 farms in Reno County. Ninety- two percent of the 803,200 acres in Reno County are used for agricultural purposes, such as pasture for livestock grazing or fields planted with crops. In 2007, 375,380 of those acres were harvested for a total value of crops harvested at $80,818,700.
Previous Occurrences
Significant wheat crop losses due to these diseases are well documented in various areas of Kansas. In 2007 approximately 196,700 acres of wheat were harvested in Reno County. Sorghum losses can occur when a crop is infested with sooty stripe early in the growing season. In 2007 approximately, 52,600 acres of sorghum were harvested for grain, and 33,600 acres of corn were harvested. Gray leaf spot is a growing problem for corn crops. Infestation is not only a risk to crops in the field. Insect infestation can cause major losses to stored grain. It is estimated that damage to stored grain by the lesser grain borer, rice weevil, red flour beetle, and rusty grain beetle costs the United Stated about $500 million annually.
Statewide cumulative disease losses for the 2007 wheat crop were estimated at 17.8 percent of the crop (65.1 million bushels) (see Table 3.7). This estimate exceeds the 20 year average of 10.69 percent loss and is the greatest cumulative loss since 1995 when foliar diseases and barley yellow dwarf virus were the primary contributors to a 20.4 percent loss. In 2007, leaf rust, which was epidemic statewide, made up about 80 percent of the total disease loss estimate. The Septoria leaf disease complex was responsible for 1.8 percent of the loss followed by tan spot with 1.3 percent. Barley yellow dwarf, stripe rust, scab, and powdery mildew had estimates of 0.2 percent each and were occasionally found at significant levels. Scab head disease was the only disease with an incline in 2008; the others were either the same or had a decline.
Table 3.7 Rankings for 2008 Wheat Losses and Comparisons (percent of yield)
Disease 2007 2008 20-Year Average
Leaf Rust 13.9 4.72 3.90 Septoria Complex 1.8 0.5 1.15 Tan Spot 1.3 0.45 0.98 Powdery Mildew 0.21 0.03 0.21 Barley Yellow Dwarf 0.2 0.01 1.13 Scab 0.2 1.9 0.46 Stripe Rust 0.15 0.01 1.54 Bunt And Loose Smut 0.02 0.01 0.02 Soil Borne Mosaic And 0.01 0.05 0.37 Spindle Streak Complex Wheat Streak Complex 0.01 0.02 1.94 Snow Mold 0.01 0.001 0.00 Root And Crown Rots 0.01 0.001 0.13 Take All 0.001 0.001 0.24 Bacterial Leaf Blight 0.001 0.001 0.02 Stem Rust 0 0 0.05 Strawbreaker 0 0 0.01 Reno County, Kansas 3.13 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
Disease 2007 2008 20-Year Average
Ceph Stripe 0 0 0.001 American Wheat Striate 0 0.001 0.001 Total 17.8 7.7 10.69
Source: Kansas State Department of Agriculture, Kansas Cooperative Plant Disease Survey Report: Preliminary 2008 Kansas Wheat Disease Loss Estimates, www.ksda.gov/plant_protection/content/183/cid/611
According to the USDA Risk Management Agency, insured wheat losses in Reno County as a result of agricultural infestation from 2005 to 2008 totaled $147,566 as detailed in Table 3.8
Table 3.8 Claims Paid in Reno County for Crop Loss as a Result of Agricultural Infestation
Year Crop Hazard Claims Paid ($) 2005 Wheat Plant Disease 16,197 2006 Wheat Plant Disease 7,384 2007 Wheat Plant Disease 40,218 2008 Wheat Plant Disease 83,767 Total 147,566 Source: USDA Risk Management Agency, 2009
In addition, a campylobacteriosis outbreak associated with unpasteurized milk occurred in Reno & Butler Counties between August and December of 2007. Reno County’s unpasteurized products were implicated as the cause if illness in 25 individuals.(KDHE Report dated 2007)
Probability of Future Occurrences
Some form of agricultural infestation occurs every year. However, most occurrences are within normal control capabilities.
Probable: Level 2 — Event is probable within the next five years.
Magnitude/Severity
According to the 2007 Kansas Agricultural Statistics from the Kansas Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, there are 732,000 acres classified as farm land in Reno County. This represents 92 percent of the total acres in the County. Of those, 375,380 were acres harvested in 2007. In 2007, the value of crops harvested in Reno County was $80,818,700 and the value of cattle and milk production was $52,019,000.
Limited: Level 2 — 10-25 percent of property severely damaged shutdown of facilities for more than a week; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable do not result in permanent disability
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Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 2.05 Moderate
3.2.3 Dam and Levee Failure
Description
The Kansas Department of Agriculture Division of Water Resources defines a state-regulated “dam” as any artificial barrier including appurtenant works with the ability to impound water, wastewater, or other liquids that has a height of 25 feet or more; or has a height of six feet or greater and also has the capacity to impound 50 or more acre feet. The height of the dam is measured from the downstream toe to the top of the dam if a watercourse is affected or from the lowest elevation of the outside limit of the dam to the top of the dam for barriers that do not extend across a stream or watercourse. Dam failure can be caused by simple structural failure, or any combination of the following factors:
• earthquake • flood conditions leading to overtopping • inadequate spillway capacity • internal erosion • improper design • improper maintenance • arson • negligent operation • failure of upstream dams
The failure of dams or levees can result in injuries, loss of life, and damage to property and the environment. While levees are built solely for flood protection, dams often serve multiple purposes, one of which may be flood control. Severe flooding and other storms can increase the potential that dams and levees will be damaged and fail as a result of the physical force of the flood waters or overtopping.
Dams and levees are usually engineered to withstand a flood with a computed risk of occurrence. If a larger flood occurs, then that structure will likely be overtopped. If during the overtopping, the dam fails or is washed out, the water behind is released as a flash flood. Failed dams can create floods that are catastrophic to life and property, in part because of the tremendous energy of the released water.
The hazard potential for dam failure is classified according to the following definitions accepted by the Interagency Committee on Dam Safety:
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• Low Hazard Potential— A dam located in an area where results in no probable loss of human life and low economic and/or environmental losses. Losses are principally limited to the owner’s property. • Significant Hazard Potential— A dam located in an area where results in no probable loss of human life but can cause economic loss, environmental damage, disruption of lifeline facilities, or other impacts. Significant hazard potential classification dams are often located in predominantly rural or agricultural areas but could be located in areas with population and significant infrastructure. • High Hazard Potential— A dam located in an area where failure could result in any of the following: extensive loss of life, damage to more than one home, damage to industrial or commercial facilities, interruption of a public utility serving a large number of customers, damage to traffic on high-volume roads that meet the requirements for high hazard or a high- volume railroad line, inundation of a frequently used recreation facility serving a relatively large number of persons, or two or more individual hazards described for significant hazard dams
Speed of onset depends largely on the causal factors. Dam failure can occur in as little as a few minutes or slowly over the course of many months; warning time will vary accordingly. In the event of a catastrophic failure of a large dam, evacuation time at locations directly downstream would be extremely brief. Floodplain characteristics largely determine the available warning time for locations further downstream but overall warning time is typically 12 to 24 hours. Duration of high water conditions that result from dam failure depends on the capacity and stage of the reservoir at time of breach as well as the severity of the breach, but is generally less than one week.
Warning Time (Dam): Level 2 — 12-24 hours
Duration (Dam): Level 1 — Less than 6 hours
The HMPC decided on levee failure that the warning time could be less than 6 hours, and if it were to fail it could take more than a week for the water to go down. This would be based on a severe flash flood event over the 100 year flood event.
Warning Time (Levee): Level 4—less than six hours
Duration (Levee): Level 3—More than one week
Geographic Location
Dams
Data from the Kansas Department of Agriculture, Water Structures Program, indicates that Reno County has 18 state regulated dams. These 18 dams are all low hazard risk and there are not any significant or high hazard dams in the County. There is a high hazard dam called Lake Reno County, Kansas 3.16 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
Darrynane, in central Stafford County to the west of Reno County. It is located on the Rattlesnake Creek that leads to Lake Darrynane. This dam would not affect Reno County. Figure 3.1 shows the locations of state-regulated dams in Reno County.
Figure 3.1 Dams in Reno County
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Levees The levees in Reno County are along the Arkansas River, Cow Creek and Plum Creek. The levees were constructed to provide protection from the 500-year flood and protect the City’s of Hutchinson, South Hutchinson (Figure 3.2) and Willowbrook (Figure 3.3). They are all owned by the City of Hutchinson. Under a joint effort between Hutchinson, South Hutchinson, Willowbrook and Reno County, they are currently in the process of having the levees certified by FEMA under the Previously Accredited Levees (PAL) agreement. The levee system begins about a mile west of Hutchinson and intercepts Cow Creek northwest of the City and carries floodwaters from Cow Creek south to the Arkansas River. Then the combined creek and river are confined between levees on both side of the river and carry floodwaters past the Hutchinson and South Hutchinson. The design flow for the Cow Creek diversion canal is 30,000 cfs and the design flow for the Arkansas River levees is 58,500 cfs. The levees are over 26 miles, including a ring levee around Willowbrook. In the County, there are other levees that are owned by individual drainage districts. These levees are not shown on the FIRM’s as providing protection from the 100-year floodplain.
Figure 3.2 Levees in Hutchinson and South Hutchinson
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Figure 3.3 Levees in Willowbrook
FEMA’s Flood Insurance Study and Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) for Reno County was revised on July 19, 2000. The map number is 20155C0000 with panels printed 25 through 875. The following panels show the levees providing the 100-year level of protection in Hutchinson, South Hutchinson, and Willowbrook as being Shaded X Flood Zone located in the 500-year event.
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Figure 3.4 Reno County FIRM Panel # 20155C0280D
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Figure 3.5 Reno County FIRM Panel # 20155C0285D
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Figure 3.6 Reno County FIRM Panel # 20155C0290D
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Figure 3.7 Reno County FIRM Panel # 20155C0295D
Previous Occurrences
There is no known history of dam failure in Reno County.
A nine mile stretch of a levee in Drainage District #3 failed in torrential spring rains in May 2007. Drainage District #3 maintains the south side of the Arkansas River from the Sedgwick County line to Yoder Road in Reno County. Thousands of acres of land were flooded when the Arkansas River breached its levee in five places. Whole sections, one as large as 600 feet in
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length, were washed out. Repairs were made to some of the levees, but authorities’ worry they may not hold against another major flood. There were no houses or buildings flooded.
Probability of Future Occurrences
Using the methodology adopted for natural hazards in this plan, the probability of dam breach in Reno County is unlikely based on the past performances of these structures during flood events. However, because dam failure is a manmade hazard, the methodology for calculating probability based on past occurrences does not necessarily reflect the actual risk of future occurrence. Further information on this risk is unknown.
Unlikely (Dam): Level 1—History of events is less than 10 percent likely per year
Based on the levee failure in the spring of 2007 the probability is possible.
Possible (Levee): Level 2 — Event is probable within the next five years.
Magnitude/Severity
Most dams in Reno County are rated as low hazard and present little or no threat to the people and property of Reno County. However, future development in areas downstream from these dams could increase the level of risk they present.
Negligible (Dam): Level 1 — Less than 10 percent of property is severely damaged
Damage or failure to the levee in Hutchinson, South Hutchinson and Willowbrook could be critical in magnitude.
Critical (Levee): Level 3 — 25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability
Hazard Summary
Levee Failure
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 2.7 Moderate
Dam Failure
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 1.15 Low
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3.2.4 Disease Outbreak
Description
While there are a number of biological diseases/agents that are of concern to the State of Kansas, the ones that are being followed most closely and are addressed in Kansas State Hazard Mitigation Plan are influenza, pandemic influenza, and West Nile virus.
Influenza Influenza (flu) is a viral infection of the nose, throat, bronchial tubes, and lungs. There are two main types of virus: A and B. Each type includes many different strains, which tend to change each year. Influenza occurs most often in the winter months. Illnesses resembling influenza may occur in the summer months, but they are usually due to other viruses.
Influenza is highly contagious and is easily transmitted through contact with droplets from the nose and throat of an infected person during coughing and sneezing. Typical symptoms include headache, fever, chills, cough, and body aches. Although most people are ill for only a few days, some have a more serious illness, such as pneumonia, and may need to be hospitalized.
Anyone can get influenza, but it is most serious in the elderly and people with chronic illnesses such as cancer, emphysema, or diabetes or weak immune systems. Thousands of people die each year in the United States from flu or related complications.
Pandemic Influenza A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. A pandemic flu is a virulent human flu that causes a global outbreak, or pandemic, of serious illness. A flu pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges for which people have little or no immunity, and for which there is no vaccine. This disease spreads easily person-to-person, causes serious illness, and can sweep across the country and around the world in very short time. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention has been working closely with other countries and the World Health Organization to strengthen systems to detect outbreaks of influenza that might cause a pandemic and to assist with pandemic planning and preparation.
Health professionals are currently concerned by the possibility of an avian (bird) flu pandemic associated with a highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus. Since 2003, avian influenza has been spreading through Asia. A growing number of human H5N1 cases contracted directly from handling infected poultry have been reported in Asia, Europe, and Africa, and more than half the infected people have died. There has been no sustained human-to-human transmission of the disease, but the concern is that H5N1 will evolve into a virus capable of human-to-human transmission.
An especially severe influenza pandemic could lead to high levels of illness, death, social disruption, and economic loss. Impacts could range from school and business closings to the
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interruption of basic services such as public transportation, health care, and the delivery of food and essential medicines.
West Nile Virus West Nile Virus was first detected in the United States in 1999 (in New York) and in Kansas in 2002. The virus is only spread by the bite of infected mosquitoes. Mosquitoes become infected by biting a bird that carries the virus. It is not typically spread from person to person (e.g., through kissing or touching) or from birds to humans. In a very small number of cases, the virus has spread through blood transfusions, organ transplants, breastfeeding, and during pregnancy from mother to baby. Experts believe the virus is now a seasonal epidemic that flares up in the summer and continues into the fall.
Most people infected with West Nile virus do not become ill. People with a mild infection may experience fever, headache, eye pain, muscle aches, joint pain, a rash on the trunk, and swollen lymph nodes. In severe cases, symptoms include severe muscle weakness, inflammation of the brain (encephalitis), paralysis, and coma. In rare cases the infection may be fatal, particularly in the elderly and people with other medical conditions. There is no vaccine and no specific treatment for West Nile virus.
Overall warning time for major disease outbreaks is generally more than one day, and the duration of outbreaks is typically more than one week.
Warning Time: Level 1 — More than 24 hours
Duration: Level 4 — More than one week
Geographic Location
The entire planning area is susceptible to influenza, pandemic influenza, and West Nile virus. This densely populated area is more susceptible to the diseases that are transmitted person to person: influenza and pandemic influenza.
Stagnant pools of water, which can be found in all parts of the state, are popular breeding grounds for mosquitoes that may carry West Nile virus.
Previous Occurrences
Influenza is an annual occurrence in Kansas. According to the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, 107 deaths were directly attributed to influenza for the flu seasons 2002–2003, 2003–2004, 2004–2005, and 2005–2006, for an average of 26 deaths per year.
Influenza-like Illness activity during the 2007-2008 season were more severe than what was seen during the previous three seasons, with the strongest period of peak activity stretching from February through early March. It was the highest rate of ILI seen in Kansas since the atypical
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2003-2004 season, when high morbidity struck Kansas in December. The number of influenza deaths was the highest on record in Kansas during the 2007-2008 season & these higher rates were also seen nationwide. (Source: KDHE, Kansas Influenza Surveillance, 2007-2008)
There were 238 reported cases of West Nile Virus in Kansas between 2002 and October 2, 2007. The year with the most cases was 2003 with 91. At least 11 deaths were attributed to the virus over this time period. In July 2006 a 72-year-old and a 57-year-old were hospitalized with West Nile virus in Reno County. (Source: www.kdheks.gov/epi/download/disease_summary/dissum_current.htm)
Probability of Future Occurrences
Influenza and West Nile happen every year. Pandemic influenza’s recurrence interval is roughly every 30 years. The HMPC decided that some form of disease outbreak would likely occur in the next three years.
Likely: Level 3 — Event is probable within the next three years
Magnitude/Severity
Although some form of major disease outbreak occurs every year, most instances do not affect a large number of people. However, for purposes of this plan, the less frequent pandemic influenza was used to classify the magnitude. In this worst-case scenario, effects could be devastating.
Critical: Level 3 — Illnesses or deaths, complete shutdown of facilities for two weeks
Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 2.8 Moderate
3.2.5 Drought
Description
Drought is generally defined as a condition of moisture levels significantly below normal over a large area for an extended period of time that adversely affects plants, animal life, and humans. It can also be defined in terms of meteorology, agriculture, and hydrology. A drought period can last for months, years, or even decades. It is rarely a direct cause of death, though the associated heat, dust, and stress can all contribute to increased mortality. Based on information from the National Weather Service for 2006, drought was the nation’s second most costly natural hazard, causing $2.6 billion in property and crop damages (flooding caused $3.9 billion in damages).
Periods of drought are normal occurrences in all parts of Kansas. Drought in Kansas is caused by severely inadequate amounts of precipitation that adversely affect farming and ranching, surface and ground water supplies, and uses of surface waters for navigation and recreation. Drought can Reno County, Kansas 3.27 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
cause significant economic and environmental impacts and also create favorable conditions for wildfires and wind erosion (see Section 3.2.20 Wildfire and Section 3.2.17 Soil Erosion and Dust).
Warning Time: Level 1 — More than 24 hours
Duration: Level 4 — More than one week
Geographic Location
As a regional phenomenon, drought affects all areas of the County with roughly the same frequency and severity. Across a broader scale that includes all of Kansas and the nation as a whole, Figure 3.8 from the Kansas Hazard Mitigation Plan shows that Reno County is situated in an area of South Central Kansas that experienced drought 10-14.9 percent of the time over the 100-year period from 1895-1995.
Figure 3.8 United States Percent of Time in Drought, 1895–1995
Note: Blue Square indicates the region of south central Kansas that includes Reno County
While the entire planning area is subject to drought conditions, the impacts of severe drought are greatest in those areas of the County that are primarily agricultural. Over 732,000 acres (92 percent of the planning area) in Reno County are used for agricultural purposes such as pasture for livestock grazing or fields planted with crops.
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Previous Occurrences
There are a certain number of drought impacts each year in Kansas, though the actual number of impacts and severity varies widely. The National Drought Mitigation Center Drought Impact Reporter notes a long term period of abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions from 1996- 2007 for Kansas. It also reported one drought event on September 1, 2000 with $1.9 million in crop damage.
Figure 3.9 shows the precipitation levels across the United States during the droughts in the 1950s and 1930s. In 1953, Reno County was part of the driest area of the country (shaded dark red). During this drought, President Eisenhower made $40 million available to 13 drought- stricken states, including Kansas. In 1937, Reno County and the majority of Kansas counties were even worse. Impacts of recent drought periods in Kansas that affected Reno County are provided below:
Reno County was included in five USDA disaster declarations for drought. During the period from 2003 to 2007, Reno County was included in two drought watch declaration and four drought warning declarations According to the point system utilized by the Kansas Water Office, Reno County received 10 points during this time frame. (1 point for each watch declaration, 2 points for each warning and 3 points for each emergency)
Figure 3.9 Historical Droughts 1953 and 1937
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/drought/images/temporal_spatial.jpg Note: Light blue squares indicates approximate location of Reno County
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The National Drought Mitigation Center developed the Drought Impact Reporter in response to the need for a national drought impact database for the United States. Information comes from a variety of sources: online drought-related news stories and scientific publications, members of the public who visit the website and submit a drought-related impact for their region, members of the media, and members of relevant government agencies. The database is being populated beginning with the most recent impacts and working backward in time.
The Drought Impact Reporter (http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/) contains information on 63 drought impacts from droughts that affected Reno County between 1950 and 2008. The list is not comprehensive. Most of the impacts, 34, were classified as “agriculture.” Other impacts include, “fire” (6), “environment” (6), “water/energy” (9), and “other” (8). These categories are described as follows:
• Agriculture—Impacts associated with agriculture, farming, and ranching. Examples include damage to crop quality, income loss for farmers due to reduced crop yields, reduced productivity of cropland, insect infestation, plant disease, increased irrigation costs, cost of new or supplemental water resource development, reduced productivity of rangeland, forced reduction of foundation stock, closure/limitation of public lands to grazing, high cost/unavailability of water for livestock, and range fires. • Water/Energy—Impacts associated with surface or subsurface water supplies (i.e., reservoirs or aquifers), stream levels or streamflow, hydropower generation, or navigation. Examples include lower water levels in reservoirs, lakes, and ponds; reduced flow from springs; reduced streamflow; loss of wetlands; estuarine impacts; increased groundwater depletion, land subsidence, reduced recharge; water quality effects; revenue shortfalls and/or windfall profits; cost of water transport or transfer; cost of new or supplemental water resource development; and loss from impaired navigability of streams, rivers, and canals. • Environment—Impacts associated with wildlife, fisheries, forests, and other fauna. Examples include loss of biodiversity of plants or wildlife; loss of trees from urban landscapes, shelterbelts, wooded conservation areas; reduction and degradation of fish and wildlife habitat; lack of feed and drinking water; greater mortality due to increased contact with agricultural producers, as animals seek food from farms and producers are less tolerant of the intrusion; disease; increased vulnerability to predation; migration and concentration; and increased stress to endangered species. • Fire—Impacts associated with forest and range fires that occur during drought events. The relationship between fires and droughts is very complex. Not all fires are caused by droughts and serious fires can result when droughts are not taking place. • Other—Drought impacts that do not easily fit into any of the above categories.
According to the USDA Risk Management Agency, insured crop losses in Reno County as a result of drought conditions from 2005 to 2008 totaled over $8.7 million as detailed in Table 3.9.
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Table 3.9 Claims Paid in Reno County for Crop Loss as a Result of Drought
Year Crop Hazard Claims Paid ($) 2005 Wheat Drought 32,283 2005 Corn Drought 4,353 2005 Grain Sorghum Drought 147,493 2005 Sunflowers Drought 71,784 2005 Soybeans Drought 20,768 2006 Wheat Drought 4,997,175 2006 Corn Drought 360,932 2006 Grain Sorghum Drought 1,138,372 2006 Soybeans Drought 380,831 2006 Sunflowers Drought 600,091 2007 Wheat Drought 700 2007 Corn Drought 42,322 2007 Grain Sorghum Drought 105,634 2007 Soybeans Drought 170,783
2008 Wheat Drought 486,783
2008 Corn Drought 89,718
2008 Grain Sorghum Drought 38,843
2008 Sunflowers Drought 11,110
2008 Soybeans Drought 44,952
Total 8,744,468 Source: USDA’s Risk Management Agency, 2009
Probability of Future Occurrences
Based on data from NOAA and the Palmer Drought Severity Index 1895-1995, Reno County experienced severe and extreme drought 10-14.9 percent of the time during that 100-year period, which ranks as a possible probability of occurrence based on the definitions set forth in the hazard profile methodology. However, the HMPC decided a drought was unlikely in the next ten years. This was based on the most recent climate cycle which could change in the future.
Unlikely: Level 1—Event is possible within the next 10 years
Magnitude/Severity
Drought impacts are wide-reaching and may be economic, environmental, and/or societal. The most significant impacts associated with drought in Kansas are those related to agriculture. As discussed in the profile on Agricultural Infestation, the agricultural industry provides the economic base for Reno County. Even though insured crop loss figures are high, the HMPC decided less than 10 percent of the property would be severely damaged. This is based on the Reno County, Kansas 3.31 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
High Plains/Ogallala Aquifer being beneath most of the County (Figure 3.10) and the high water table. The figure below shows that water is available less than 50 feet underground in Reno County.
Figure 3.10 High Plains/Ogallala Aquifer in Central Kansas
Source: http://www.kgs.ku.edu/HighPlains/maps/fig9.JPG Note: Blue box indicates Reno County
Negligible: Level 1 — Less than 10 percent of property is severely damaged
Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 1.30 Low
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3.2.6 Earthquake
Description
An earthquake is a sudden motion or trembling that is caused by a release of strain accumulated within or along the edge of Earth’s tectonic plates. The severity of these effects is dependent on the amount of energy released from the fault or epicenter. Kansas experiences small earthquakes on a routine basis, but few are of a magnitude that causes damage to buildings or the infrastructure.
Warning Time: Level 4—less than six hours
Duration: Level 1 — Less than 6 hours
Geographic Location
Reno County is in an area of relatively low seismic activity. The closest series of faults called the Humboldt Fault Zone runs through Riley and Pottawatomie Counties and extends south along the Nemaha Ridge also known as the Nemaha Uplift.
Figure 3.11 below shows the locations of minor earthquakes recorded by the Kansas Geological Survey between August 1977 and August 1989. The locations of earthquakes are indicated by blue points size coded by local magnitude. Locations of faults are indicated by green lines. The largest event had a magnitude of 4.0 and the smallest had a magnitude of 0.8 on the Richter scale. No seismic events were recorded in or near Reno County during this period.
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Figure 3.11 Locations of Faults and Historic Micro-Earthquakes in Kansas
Source: Kansas Geological Survey, http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Publications/pic3/pic3_4.html Note: Blue square indicates approximate location of Reno County
The New Madrid Seismic Zone follows the Mississippi River valley from southeastern Missouri to northwestern Mississippi, roughly 200 miles southeast of Reno County. While it is unlikely that Reno County would receive extensive damage from a large New Madrid Seismic Zone event, it is possible that ground shaking would be noticed.
Based on the location of Reno County relative to seismically active areas, earthquake risk is similar across the entire planning area, including all participating jurisdictions.
Previous Occurrences
At least 25 earthquakes were recorded by the Kansas Geological Survey between August 1876 and 1976 (Figure 3.12), but none are recorded in Reno County. Kansas experiences small earthquakes on a routine basis, but few are of a magnitude that causes damage to buildings or the infrastructure. According to a 2001 FEMA report, Kansas ranks 45th among the states in the amount of damage caused by earthquakes in an average year.
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Figure 3.12 Historical Earthquakes in Kansas Prior to 1977
Source: US Geologic Survey (USGS), http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/states/kansas/hazards.php
Probability of Future Occurrences
Figure 3.13 indicates the probability of a magnitude 4.75+ earthquake in Reno County over a 100-year time period is a probability of .030. Based on these estimates, the probability of a significant earthquake in any given year is unlikely.
Unlikely: Level 1—History of events is less than 10 percent likely per year
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Figure 3.13 Earthquake Probability
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, http://eqint.cr.usgs.gov/eqprob/2002/index.php
Figure 3.14 indicates that there is a 2.0 percent probability of an earthquake exceeding a peak acceleration of 4.0 percent of gravity in the next 50 years in Reno County. Typically, significant earthquake damage occurs when accelerations are greater than 30 percent of gravity.
Figure 3.14 Kansas Seismic Hazard Map: Peak Acceleration (%g) with 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/states/kansas/hazards.php Note: Black square indicates approximate location of Reno County
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Magnitude/Severity
In general, the potential magnitude and severity of earthquakes is “catastrophic” when considering the worst case scenario, with multiple fatalities and more than 50 percent of property severely damaged. The New Madrid, Missouri earthquake is an example of such an earthquake that indicates the potential severity of ground-shaking in that region. Based on the available data and assessments of probability (two percent chance of a magnitude 4.75+ earthquake per 100 years), potential magnitude/severity is considered negligible for Reno County.
Negligible: Level 1 — Less than 10 percent of property is severely damaged, shutdown of facilities and services for less than 24 hours; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable with first aid.
Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 1.40 Low
3.2.7 Expansive Soils
Description
A relatively widespread geologic hazard for Kansas is the presence of soils that expand and shrink in relation to their water content. Expansive soils can cause physical damage to building foundations, roadways, and other components of the infrastructure when clay soils swell and shrink due to changes in moisture content. For Kansas, the vulnerability to this hazard most frequently is associated with soils shrinking during periods of drought.
Warning Time: Level 1—more than 24 hours
Duration: Level 4—more than one week
Geographic Location
Figure 3.15 shows a map of the swelling potential of soils in Kansas. Reno County is located in an area where part of the soil unit (generally less than 50 percent) consists of clay having slight to moderate swelling potential and part having (generally less than 50 percent) clay with high swelling potential. More detailed data on how these soils vary within the Reno County planning area was not available. Therefore, for the purposes of this plan, the hazard is considered to affect all participating jurisdictions.
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Figure 3.15 Swelling Soils Map of Kansas
MAP LEGEND Unit contains abundant clay having high swelling potential Part of unit (generally less than 50%) consists of clay having high swelling potential Unit contains abundant clay having slight to moderate swelling potential Part of unit (generally less than 50%) consists of clay having slight to moderate swelling potential Unit contains little or no swelling clay Data insufficient to indicate clay content of unit and/or swelling potential of clay Source: U.S. Geological Survey, http://arcvoid.com/surevoid_web/soil_maps/ks.html Note: Black square indicates approximate location of Reno County
Previous Occurrences
Streets and parking lots throughout the County are damaged every year by the effects of expansive soils. The frequency of damage from expansive soils can be associated with the cycles of drought and heavy rainfall, which reflect changes in moisture content. The effects of shrink- swell cycles in expansive soils are cumulative, and in most cases are associated with accelerated wear and tear on roads, sidewalks and building foundations. There is no data regarding incidents of damages resulting from expansive soils. These damages are largely isolated incidents and affected property owners make any necessary repairs.
Probability of Future Occurrences
Although there will continue to be some damage to paved areas and foundations in Reno County due to swelling soils, it is unlikely that these damages will become greater in the future unless new development occurs in areas where the hazard is more severe. Certain building and Reno County, Kansas 3.38 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
construction practices could be put in place to lessen these impacts. The HMPC determined that significant damage to assets in the planning area is unlikely in any given year.
Unlikely: Level 1—History of events is less than 10 percent likely per year
Magnitude/Severity
The HMPC determined that while the entire planning area is vulnerable to some structure damage as a result of expansive soils, so the magnitude would be “negligible” and handled by individual property owners.
Negligible: Level 1 — Less than 10 percent of property is severely damaged, shutdown of facilities and services for less than 24 hours; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable with first aid
Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 1.3 Low
3.2.8 Extreme Heat
Description
Extreme temperature events, both hot and cold, can have severe impacts on human health and mortality, natural ecosystems, agriculture, and other economic sectors. According to information provided by FEMA, extreme heat is defined as temperatures that hover 10 degrees or more above the average high temperature for the region and last for several weeks. Ambient air temperature is one component of heat conditions, with relative humidity being the other. The relationship of these factors creates what is known as the apparent temperature. The Heat Index Chart in Figure 3.16 uses both of these factors to produce a guide for the apparent temperature or relative intensity of heat conditions.
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Figure 3.16 Heat Index (HI) Chart
Source: National Weather Service (NWS) Note: Exposure to direct sun can increase Heat Index values by as much as 15°F. Note on the HI chart the shaded zone above 105°F. This corresponds to a level of HI that may cause increasingly severe heat disorders with continued exposure and/or physical activity.
Extreme heat is a serious public health issue and a livestock issue in agricultural areas such as Reno County. From 1995-2006, there were 230 fatalities in the United States attributed to are summer heat. According to the National Weather Service, among natural hazards, no other natural disaster—not lightning, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, or earthquakes—takes a greater toll.
Those at greatest risk for heat-related illness include infants and children up to four years of age, people 65 years of age and older, people who are overweight, and people who are ill or on certain medications. However, even young and healthy individuals are susceptible if they participate in strenuous physical activities during hot weather. In agricultural areas, the exposure of farm workers, as well as livestock, to extreme heat is a major concern.
Table 3.10 lists typical health impacts of extreme heat.
Table 3.10 Typical Health Impacts of Extreme Heat
Heat Index (HI) Disorder 80-90° F (HI) Fatigue possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity 90-105° F (HI) Sunstroke, heat cramps, and heat exhaustion possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity 105-130° F (HI) Heatstroke/sunstroke highly likely with continued exposure Source: National Weather Service Heat Index Program, www.weather.gov/os/heat/index.shtml
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The National Weather Service has a system in place to initiate alert procedures (advisories or warnings) when the Heat Index is expected to have a significant impact on public safety. The expected severity of the heat determines whether advisories or warnings are issued. A common guideline for issuing excessive heat alerts is when the maximum daytime Heat Index is expected to equal or exceed 105 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) and the night time minimum Heat Index is 80°F or above for two or more consecutive days.
Warning Time: Level 1—More than 24 hours
Duration: Level 4 — More than one week
Geographic Location
The entire planning area is subject to extreme heat events and all participating jurisdictions can be affected.
Previous Occurrences
Since 1980, there have been a number of major extreme temperature events that have caused death and damage in the central United States, including Kansas. For the period 1960-2005, the NCDC database lists one incident of extreme heat in Reno County, which occurred in July 2006. From July 16-20, 2006, a deadly heat wave gripped much of central, south-central and south-east Kansas, and temperatures peaked in the 105-110°F range, with afternoon heat indices about the same. The cover of darkness provided little in the way of relief, as overnight temperatures were slow to fall off, reaching only the upper 70s by sunrise for some locations. The prolonged heat claimed five lives across south-central and southeast Kansas, most of them elderly men.
During 2005-2007, Reno County received USDA emergency designations two times for excessive heat; once in 2006 and 2007.
According to the USDA Risk Management Agency, insured crop losses in Reno County as a result of extreme heat conditions from 2005 to 2008 totaled $686,569.00. Table 3.11 summarizes these claims by year, crop, and hazard.
Table 3.11 Claims Paid in Reno County for Crop Loss as a Result of Extreme Heat
Claims Paid Year Crop Hazard ($) 2005 Corn Heat 134,005 2005 Grain Sorghum Heat 57,020 2005 Soybeans Heat 19,885 2006 Corn Heat 73,974 2006 Grain Sorghum Heat 12,140 2006 Soybeans Heat 88,641 2006 Soybeans Hot Wind 1,010 2007 Wheat Heat 1,179 Reno County, Kansas 3.41 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
Claims Paid Year Crop Hazard ($) 2007 Corn Heat 32,112
2007 Grain Sorghum Heat 49,206
2007 Soybeans Heat 60,337
2008 Corn Heat 61,108
2008 Grain Sorghum Heat 1,193 2008 Grain Sorghum Hot Wind 625 2008 Soybeans Heat 72,179 2008 Soybeans Hot Wind 21,955 Total 686,569 Source: USDA’s Risk Management Agency, 2009
Table 3.12 summarizes record high temperatures by month in Reno County from 1953 to 2008. The highest temperatures in Hutchinson on average occur in the month of August, followed closely by June, July and September. The highest recorded temperature at the weather station is 111°F, which occurred on August 6, 1964.
Table 3.12 Record High Temperatures by Month, 1953 to 2008
Maximum Maximum Month Temp Month Temp. January 79 July 110 February 84 August 111 March 89 September 108 April 98 October 95 May 102 November 88 June 110 December 76 Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center, http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/data/historical/index.php?state=ks&action=select_state&submit=Select+State
Probability of Future Occurrences
Although periods of extreme heat generally occur on an annual basis, events that cause significant risk occur somewhat less often. The HMPC determined that the likelihood of an extreme heat event in any given year is likely.
Likely: Level 3 — Event is probable within the next three years
Magnitude/Severity
The HMPC notes that instability of the electrical grid has been an issue during periods of extreme heat. Specific dates of occurrence were not available. The resulting intermittent power outages increased the effects of extreme heat as some residents were not able to seek relief in air conditioned homes and buildings. Reno County, Kansas 3.42 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
In the state of Kansas, there were 12 fatalities due to extreme heat during the period from 1996- 2006 according to the Kansas Hazard Mitigation Plan. Due to the potential for fatalities and the possibility for the loss of electric power, periods of extreme heat can severely affect the planning area. In addition, accompanying drought may compound the problem exacerbating agricultural and economic losses.
Limited: Level 2 —10-25 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than a week; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable do not result in permanent disability
Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 2.5 Moderate
3.2.9 Flood
Description
There are several different types of potential flood events in Reno County including riverine, flash flooding, and urban stormwater. Riverine flooding is defined as when a watercourse exceeds its “bank-full” capacity and is the most common type of flood event. Riverine flooding generally occurs as a result of prolonged rainfall, or rainfall that is combined with soils already saturated from previous rain events. The area adjacent to a river channel is its floodplain. In its common usage, “floodplain” most often refers to that area that is inundated by the 100-year flood, the flood that has a 1 percent chance in any given year of being equaled or exceeded. The 1 percent annual flood is the national standard to which communities regulate their floodplains through the National Flood Insurance Program.
Factors that directly affect the amount of flood runoff include precipitation, intensity and distribution, the amount of soil moisture, seasonal variation in vegetation, and water-resistance of the surface areas due to urbanization. The term "flash flood" describes localized floods of great volume and short duration. In contrast to riverine flooding, this type of flood usually results from a heavy rainfall on a relatively small drainage area. Precipitation of this sort usually occurs in the spring and summer. Urban flood events result as land loses its ability to absorb rainfall as it is converted from fields or woodlands to roads, buildings, and parking lots. Urbanization increases runoff two to six times over what would occur on undeveloped terrain. Dam and Levee failure also causes flooding (see Section 3.2.3).
The onset of flooding varies, depending on the cause and type. Flash flooding and dam/levee failure inundation typically occur with little or no warning, whereas flooding caused by long periods of excessive rainfall tends to have longer duration but more gradual onset. Overall warning time is usually 12-24 hours. The duration of flood conditions is generally less than one week, but in exceptional cases can extend for much longer periods.
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Warning Time: 2—12-24 hours
Duration: 3—less than one week
Geographic Location
The Lower Arkansas River Basin in Kansas that includes Reno County is a square drainage area that extends southern into Oklahoma. It covers approximately 11,500 square miles of south- central Kansas and includes all or parts of 20 counties. The Arkansas River flows generally southeast across the basin. Major tributaries entering the river along its course are Rattlesnake Creek, Cow Creek, Little Arkansas River, Ninnescah River and Slate Creek. The major reservoir in the basin is Cheney Reservoir.
Flooding in Reno County is mainly caused by the overflow of the Arkansas River, North Fork Ninnescah, Cow Creek, as well as other creeks and tributaries. Flooding is due to sustained periods of widespread rainfall within the drainage basin.
Figure 3.17 Lower Arkansas River Basin
Source: Kansas Water Office, http://www.kwo.org/BACs/LARK/LARK.htm
The effective FIRM for the County is from the revision on July 19, 2000. Preliminary digital flood insurance rate maps (DFIRM) were issued to Reno County in August 2008 through
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FEMA’s map modernization program but the County has not received a Letter of Final Determination from FEMA. The County is anticipating an effective date in January 2010.
The best available data for flooding in Reno County was generated by HAZUS-MH MR3, FEMA’s software program for estimating potential losses from disasters. HAZUS was used to generate a 1 percent annual flood, or 100-year flood, event for major rivers and creeks in the County. The software produces a flood polygon and flood-depth grid that represents the 100-year flood. While not as accurate as official flood maps, these floodplain boundaries are for use in GIS-based loss estimation. Figure 3.18 is a map of the HAZUS 100-year floodplain in Reno County.
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Figure 3.18 Reno County HAZUS 100-Year Floodplain
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The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have built several levees in Reno County. The levees provide protection for the City of Hutchinson, South Hutchinson and Willowbrook from the 100-year flood.
Previous Occurrences
Riverine flooding is the most common type of flood hazard in Reno County. Reno County is also prone to flash flooding, which is defined as a rapid rise in water level, fast-moving water, and debris.
Another issue that exacerbates the flooding problem is illegal dumping in the floodways and floodplains in the planning area. During flood conditions, this debris can accumulate at narrow points of the river and/or under bridges to cause debris jams. In some instances, this causes the water to back up in to areas that would not otherwise flood if the water was unobstructed. When this situation occurs around bridges, the potential for water spilling onto the roadway is increased as well as erosion around the bridge footings.
Table 3.13 shows 28 recorded flood events in Reno County between 1993 and 2008 from the NCDC database. However, it should be noted that prior to 1993, flood data was available only on a limited basis for major floods (floods of 1951 and 1986). Minor floods and flash floods were not recorded prior to 1993. It is highly likely that there were localized events prior to 1993 that were not recorded.
Historical flooding in Reno County and the City of Hutchinson has resulted in a number of flooding events since the levee was constructed in 1952. The following examples are extreme floods recorded since 1993:
• February 7, 1993–Runoff from melting snow and persistent rains forced Cow Creek out of its banks across Northern Reno County from the 7th through the 9th. Three families left their homes when access roads became impassable.
• July 16, 1999-Widespread thunderstorms covering most of Reno County produced rainfalls up to 7 inches in and around Hutchinson within a 3-hour period. The torrential rains caused major flash flooding across Hutchinson that inundated many homes, businesses and streets. Floodwaters reached depths of 4 feet in some locations that resulted in the closures of many streets.
• August 13, 2002–Nickerson was completely flooded and inaccessible, with water levels reaching the windows of many vehicles. In Hutchinson, the Cow Creek overflowed, resulting in the closure of numerous streets. There was flooding of lesser severity throughout the rest of Reno County.
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• May 7-8, 2007-A slow moving powerful storm that brought several tornadoes to Central and South-west Kansas brought significant flooding to parts of Central Kansas. These storms brought with them very heavy rain. Hutchinson reported major flooding on the Cow Creek. There was numerous water rescues performed. Damage to public roads, bridges, and structures was estimated at 2.5 million dollars.
• May 23-28, 2007–Slow moving thunderstorms produced 4 to 5 inches of rain across the north-western portion of Reno County. Arlington to Hutchinson to Buhler received 7 to 8 inches. Excessive runoff from this heavy rainfall caused the Arkansas River and several creeks and streams to rise above flood stage. At least 60 homes and businesses were flooded including Carey Park and the Kansas Cosmosphere in Hutchinson.
Table 3.13 Flood Events in Reno County, 1993-2008
Location Date Property Damage Crop Damage Nickerson 2/7/1993 $50,000 $50,000 Nickerson 4/2/1993 $50,000 $50,000 Buhler 5/30/1993 $50,000 $5,000 Abbyville 5/9/1996 $0 $0 Sylvia 5/9/1996 $0 $0 Yoder 7/8/1997 $0 $0 Nickerson 4/2/1998 $0 $0 Hutchinson 6/22/1998 $0 $0 unincorporated 10/31/1998 $0 $0 unincorporated 3/23/2000 $0 $0 Buhler 6/11/2002 $0 $0 Nickerson 6/15/2002 $0 $0 Nickerson 8/13/2002 $500,000 $0 Hutchinson 10/8/2003 $0 $0 Turon 8/16/2004 $0 $0 Countywide 6/8/2005 $0 $0 unincorporated 7/3/2005 $0 $0 Hutchinson 7/4/2005 $0 $0 unincorporated 7/4/2005 $0 $0 Hutchinson 3/23/2007 $0 $0 Hutchinson 5/7/2007 $0 $0 Haven 5/8/2007 $0 $0 Hutchinson 5/23/2007 $0 $0 Hutchinson 5/23/2007 $6.500,000 $0 Abbyville 5/27/2007 $0 $0 Cheney Res 6/28/2008 $0 $0 Buhler 10/15/2008 $0 $0 Nickerson 10/18/2008 $0 $0 Total $7,150,000 $105,000
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During 2005-2007, Reno County received USDA emergency designations three times for excessive moisture; twice in 2005 and once in 2007.
According to the USDA Risk Management Agency, insured crop losses in Reno County as a result of flood conditions and excessive moisture from 2005 to 2008 totaled over $5.2 million. Table 3.14 provides a summary of claims paid, by year, crop, and hazard that caused damages.
Table 3.14 Claims Paid in Reno County for Crop Loss as a Result of Excessive Moisture and Flood
Year Crop Hazard Claims Paid ($) 2005 Wheat Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 613,101 2005 Corn Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 103,603 2005 Grain Sorghum Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 55,726 2005 Sunflowers Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 21,271 2005 Soybeans Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 55,244 2007 Wheat Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 1,805,591 2007 Corn Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 255,203 2007 Grain Sorghum Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 30,964 2007 Soybeans Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 68,421 2008 Wheat Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 870,883 2008 Canola Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 107,450 2008 Corn Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 507,769 2008 Grain Sorghum Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 188,937 2008 Sunflowers Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 183,080 2008 Soybeans Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain 120,781 2005 Wheat Flood 5,244 2007 Wheat Flood 152,668 2007 Corn Flood 93,886 2007 Grain Sorghum Flood 417 2007 Soybeans Flood 626 2008 Wheat Flood 11,760 2008 Soybeans Flood 25,434 Total 5,278,059
Source: USDA Risk Management Agency, 2009
Probability of Future Occurrences
Based on the detailed historical data available from 1993 to the present, there is at least one minor or flash flood every year in Reno County. In the past 15 years there have been 28 flood events for Reno County. It is reasonable to determine that the probability of future flooding in Reno County is highly likely.
Highly Likely: Level 4 — Event is probable within the next year
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Magnitude/Severity
Past flood events in Reno County have caused significant damage to property and agriculture, endangered lives, and shut down critical facilities and infrastructure.
Critical: Level 3 — 25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability
Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 3.3 High
3.2.10 Fog
Description
Fog results from air being cooled to the point where it can no longer hold all of the water vapor it contains. For example, rain can cool and moisten the air near the surface until fog forms. A cloud-free, humid air mass at night can lead to fog formation, where land and water surfaces that have warmed up during the summer are still evaporating water into the atmosphere. This is called radiation fog. A warm moist air mass blowing over a cold surface also can cause fog to form, which is called advection fog.
In Kansas, fog is principally a threat to public safety. Of particular concern is the potential for multi-vehicle accidents and farm equipment accidents in Kansas. These accidents can cause injuries and deaths and can have serious implications for health, safety, and environmental if a hazardous or nuclear waste shipment is involved. Other disruptions from fog include delayed emergency response vehicle travel.
Warning Time: 2—12-24 hours
Duration: Level 1—less than 6 hours
Geographic Location
The entire planning area, including all participating jurisdictions, is at risk to fog if conditions are present. The low-lying areas are at increased risk due to the nature of fog to settle in these areas.
Previous Occurrences
The NCDC database shows no recorded fog occurrence in Reno County.
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Probability of Future Occurrences
Although fog does occur in the planning area on an annual basis, damages directly related to the fog conditions are sporadic and largely difficult to identify direct linkage to fog as the cause. Therefore, it has been determined that occurrence of damage as a result of fog is unlikely in any given year.
Unlikely: Event is possible with the next 10 years.
Magnitude/Severity
As a result of the lack of reported damages from fog in the past, it has been determined that if events do occur, losses would be minimal.
Negligible: Less than 10 percent of property severely damaged, shutdown of facilities and services for less than 24 hours; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable with first aid
Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 1.15 Low
3.2.11 Hailstorm
Description
Hailstorms in Kansas cause damage to property, crops, and harm livestock. Because of the large agricultural industry in Kansas, crop damage and livestock losses due to hail are of great concern to the state. Even relatively small hail can cause serious damage to crops and trees. Vehicles, roofs of buildings and homes, and landscaping are the other things most commonly damaged by hail. Hail has been known to cause injury and the occasional fatality to humans, often associated with traffic accidents.
Hail is associated with thunderstorms that can also bring powerful winds and tornadoes. A hailstorm forms when updrafts carry raindrops into extremely cold areas of the atmosphere where they condense and freeze. Hail falls when it becomes heavy enough to overcome the strength of the updraft and is pulled by gravity towards the earth. The onset of hailstorms is generally rapid. Duration is less than six hours and warning time is generally less than six hours.
Based on information provided by the Tornado and Storm Research Organization (TORRO), Table 3.15 describes typical damage impacts of the various sizes of hail.
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Table 3.15 TORRO Hailstorm Intensity Scale
Intensity Diameter Diameter Size Typical Damage Impacts Category (mm) (inches) Description Hard Hail 5-9 0.2-0.4 Pea No damage Potentially 10-15 0.4-0.6 Mothball Slight general damage to plants, crops Damaging Significant 16-20 0.6-0.8 Marble, grape Significant damage to fruit, crops, vegetation Severe 21-30 0.8-1.2 Walnut Severe damage to fruit and crops, damage to glass and plastic structures, paint and wood scored Severe 31-40 1.2-1.6 Pigeon's egg > Widespread glass damage, vehicle squash ball bodywork damage Destructive 41-50 1.6-2.0 Golf ball > Wholesale destruction of glass, damage to Pullet's egg tiled roofs, significant risk of injuries Destructive 51-60 2.0-2.4 Hen's egg Bodywork of grounded aircraft dented, brick walls pitted Destructive 61-75 2.4-3.0 Tennis ball > Severe roof damage, risk of serious injuries cricket ball Destructive 76-90 3.0-3.5 Large orange > Severe damage to aircraft bodywork Soft ball Super 91-100 3.6-3.9 Grapefruit Extensive structural damage. Risk of Hailstorms severe or even fatal injuries to persons caught in the open Super >100 4.0+ Melon Extensive structural damage. Risk of Hailstorms severe or even fatal injuries to persons caught in the open Source: Tornado and Storm Research Organization (TORRO), Department of Geography, Oxford Brookes University Notes: In addition to hail diameter, factors including number and density of hailstones, hail fall speed and surface wind speeds affect severity.
Warning Time: 2—12 to 24 hours
Duration: 1—less than 6 hours
Geographic Location
The entire planning area, including all participating jurisdictions, is at risk to hailstorms.
Previous Occurrences
The NCDC reports 461 hail events in Reno County between 1957 and 2008. There were numerous reports of hail damage to vehicles and property. In 1998, there was $750,000 in crop damage. Table 3.16 shows the number of hail events by the size of the hail.
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Table 3.16 Hail Events Summarized by Hail Size (in inches), 1957-2008
Hail Size Number of (inches) Events .75 129 .88 42 1.00 115 1.25 12 1.50 18 1.75 113 2.00 15 2.25 1 2.50 2 2.75 10 3.50 1 4.00 1 4.50 1 5.00 1 Source: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwEvent~Storms
Annualized property damage, based on this data from the NCDC for 1993-2008, in Reno County was $923,000.
During 2005-2007, Reno County received one USDA emergency designations for hail damage in 2005.
According to the USDA Risk Management Agency, insured crop losses in Reno County as a result of hail from 2005 to 2008 totaled over $1.4 million. Table 3.17 provides a summary of claims paid, by year, crop, and hazard that caused damages.
Table 3.17 Claims Paid in Reno County for Crop Loss as a Result of Hail
Year Crop Hazard Claims Paid ($) 2005 Wheat Hail 91,428 2005 Corn Hail 533,806 2005 Grain Sorghum Hail 2,735 2005 Sunflowers Hail 19,339 2005 Soybeans Hail 30,456 2006 Wheat Hail 80,345 2007 Wheat Hail 17,881 2008 Wheat Hail 569,438 2008 Corn Hail 37,468 2008 Grain Sorghum Hail 3,244 2008 Soybeans Hail 20,655 Total 1,406,795 Source: USDA Risk Management Agency, 2009
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Probability of Future Occurrences
Hail events occur every year in Reno County. When limiting the probability analysis to hail events producing hail 1.75 inches and larger, NCDC lists 145 reported events in a 51-year period. Based on this historic frequency, future probability of a large-sized hail event in any given year is 100 percent and the recurrence interval is roughly three events every year. However, these events may not always occur in developed parts of the County and damage may not always be significant.
Figure 3.19 indicates that hail of two inches or larger in size occurred 2 to 2.5 days per year on average in Reno County from 1980-1994.
Figure 3.19 Annual Hailstorm Probability (2’’ diameter or larger), 1980-1994
Source: NSSL, http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/bighail.gif Note: Black square indicates approximate location of Reno County
Based on frequency of previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence is considered highly likely.
Highly Likely: Level 4 — Event is probable within the calendar year
Magnitude/Severity
In addition to concerns for public safety, assets that are vulnerable to hail damage include crops and built structures. Of these, crop damage from hailstorms is the most common and costly. Large hail can devastate crops that are at vulnerable stages in the plant/harvest cycle, and it is possible for a great percentage of crop yields to be lost as a result of even a single hail event.
Structure damage due to hail is usually covered under private insurance. The NCDC reports that $923,000 in property and crop damage occurred from 1993-2008. Information on specific
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structural damage costs in the planning area as a result of hail damage was not available. Overall magnitude and severity of hailstorms is considered negligible.
Negligible: Less than 10 percent of property severely damaged, shutdown of facilities and services for less than 24 hours; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable with first aid
Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 2.8 Moderate
3.2.12 Hazardous Materials
Description
Hazardous materials and hazardous waste are a concern for Reno County because a sudden accidental or intentional release of such materials can be dangerous to human health and safety, to property, and to the quality of the environment. Such releases may come from both fixed sources, such as a manufacturing or storage facility, or from a transportation source, such as a truck, pipeline, or railroad. Accidental releases may be due to equipment failure, human error, and a natural or manmade hazard event. Facilities that store or use chemicals considered unusually dangerous to human safety are required by Section 112R of the Clean Air Act Amendments to assess the potential impacts of an accidental release of the chemical at their facility and to prepare Risk Management Plans (RMP). Of particular interest to Kansas is that ammonia is one of the covered hazardous materials. Numerous Kansas ammonia storage and distribution facilities have filed an RMP with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Reno County has 157 Tier II reporting facilities housing chemicals. Tier II facilities are defined by EPA as facilities storing 10,000 pounds (500 pounds for “extremely hazardous substances”) or more of hazardous chemicals. Reno County has 504 miles of gas pipeline and 806 miles of liquid pipeline.
Warning Time: 4—less than six hours
Duration: 2—less than 1 day
Geographic Location
In Reno County there are hundreds of miles of city streets and highways that chemical tanks traverse on. Everyday, dozens of chemical cargoes cross the County on the railroads.
According to the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, Reno County has 504 miles of gas pipeline, 806 miles of liquid pipelines, which comprises 5.3 percent of the state’s total pipelines.
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Reno County has 157 facilities housing hazardous chemicals. See figure 3.20 below. These fixed facilities release and dispose of hazardous materials. The EPA under their Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) program is required to maintain inventory of this hazard. In 2007, Reno County released or had on-site disposal of 77,289 pounds of hazardous materials and 211 pounds of off- site disposal or releases.
Note: The data does not reflect whether (or to what degree) the public has been exposed to any of the TRI chemicals. Both the toxicity of a chemical and exposure considerations should be taken into account when examining the data. Some high-volume releases of less toxic chemicals may appear to be a more serious problem than lower volume releases of highly toxic chemicals, when just the opposite may be true.
The TRI does not cover all toxic chemicals that have the potential to adversely affect human health or the environment. Facilities that do not meet the reporting threshold levels are not required to report. The data does not include emissions from mobile sources nor releases of pesticides, volatile organic compounds, or fertilizers from many non industrial sources.
Reno County also houses one superfund site, Obee Road, or otherwise known as the Hutchinson City Dump, in Hutchinson, Kansas. Before closing in 1973, the dump accepted unknown quantities of liquid wastes and sludges from local industries, as well as solvents from small metal-finishing operations at local aircraft plants.The site has contaminated ground water with VOC’s such as trichloroethylene (TCE), vinyl chloride, and chloroform. Residences in the area are now connected to the public water supply, but the private wells have not been plugged.
Figure 3.20 Kansas Facilities Housing Hazardous Chemicals, 2006
Source: Kansas Commission on Emergency Planning and Response “Managing the Risk” 2006-2007 Annual Report, www.kansas.gov/kdem/pdf/library/2006%20-%202007%20Managing%20the%20Risk.pdf Reno County, Kansas 3.56 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
Note: Tier II facilities are covered by the Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act (EPCRA). The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires the annual submittal of Tier II reports for each facility storing 10,000 pounds (500 pounds for “extremely hazardous substances) or more of hazardous chemicals (approximately 1,600 gallons of gasoline, 1,420 gallons of fuel oil, 1,480 gallons of kerosene, 1,075 gallons of antifreeze, or 1,350 gallons of lube oil).
In Tables 3.18 below, lists by industry in Reno County these on-site and off-site disposed chemicals in 2007.
Table 3.18 Reno County TRI On-Site and Off-Site Reported Disposed Chemicals (in pounds) by Industry
Total On-site Total Off-site Total On- and Off- Disposal or Other Disposal or Other site Disposal or Industry Releases Releases Other Releases Food/Beverages/Tobacco 24610 0 24610 Printing and Publishing 1 1.4 2.4 Fabricated Metals 42693 0 42693 Machinery 9985 209.58 10194.58 Total 77289 210.98 77499.98 Source: http://www.epa.gov/cgi- bin/broker?view=COSC&trilib=TRIQ0&sort=_VIEW_&sort_fmt=1&state=20&county=20209&chemical=_ALL_&year=2007&tab_rp t=1&fld=RELLBY&fld=TSFDSP&_service=oiaa&_program=xp_tri.sasmacr.tristart.macro
Previous Occurrences
From 1990-2006, there were 126 hazardous material spills reported to the State from Reno County. (See Table 3.19 below) Also according to the Kansas Division of Emergency Management, there are 40 “critical” sites in Kansas. They are deemed so because of the severity of the chemicals, the quantity of chemicals, and the amount of population affected in a worse case scenario. Reno County has #22 on the list with a food distribution center and #37 with a food manufacturing site.
Table 3.19 Hazardous Materials Incidents by County, 1990–2006
Railroad Total Fixed/ Non- Other/ Incident County Incidents Storage Railroad release Pipeline Mobile Aircraft Unknown
Reno 126 55 10 17 35 3 0 6
Reno County has an extensive transportation network. Thus they were ranked 10th in the State for transportation hazardous materials incidents. As you can see below in Table 3.20, they do not have any fatalities as a result of these incidents.
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Table 3.20 Transportation Hazardous Materials Incidents by County, 1971–2006
Total Total Total Total Total Incident County Incidents Fatalities Injuries Damages ($) Evacuated
Reno 80 0 0 356,337 205
Source: DOT’s Hazardous Materials Information System, http://hazmat.dot.gov/pubs/inc/hmisframe.htm Notes: The costs shown are in 2006 dollars.
Probability of Future Occurrences
As with all hazard events, special populations are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of a hazardous materials incident especially because of the inherent difficulties involved in evacuation. These populations will require assistance should an incident occur. The state has inventoried special populations facilities (adult, child care, and health facilities; state prisons; and schools) 1/2, 1, and 2 miles from chemical facilities. Table 3.21 shows how many of each type of these facilities Reno County has within 1/2 mile of a chemical facility from the State Plan.
Table 3.21 Special Population Facilities near Chemical Facilities
State Adult Child Care Health Total County Facilities* Facilities Facilities** Prisons Schools Facilities
Reno 5 105 0 2 22 134
Source: Kansas Adjutant General’s Department * Adult facilities include adult day care, assisted living, home plus, intermediate care for mentally retarded, nursing facilities, and nursing facilities for mental health and residential health care. ** Health facilities include hospitals, home health agencies, long-term care, mental retardation, and psychiatric.
The HMPC has determined the hazardous material incident would be highly likely. Based on past experience, they feel there is potential for a railroad type of incident.
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Figure 3.21 Railroad Lines in the City of Hutchinson
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Figure 3.22 Railroad Lines in Reno County
Highly Likely: Level 4 — Event is probable within the calendar year
Magnitude/Severity:
The HMPC determined even though the probability was highly likely of a hazardous materials incident occurring, the magnitude and severity would result in a limited amount of damage.
Limited: Level 2 — 10-25 percent of property severely damaged
Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 3.2 High
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3.2.13 Land Subsidence
Description
Subsidence is caused when the ground above manmade or natural voids collapses. Subsidence can be related to mine collapse, underground water and oil withdrawal, or natural causes such as shrinking of expansive soils, and cave collapses. For example, if it is water being extracted, the rock compacts because the water is partly responsible for holding the ground up. When the water is withdrawn, the rocks fall in on it. Land subsidence may go unnoticed in some instances because it can occur over large areas rather than in a small spot, such as a sinkhole.
In Kansas, this risk is the highest in the southeast corner of the State, where subsidence events are primarily due to coal, lead, and zinc mining. Reno County is also at risk due to a large number of salt solution mines.
Subsidence is a global problem and in the U.S. more than 17,000 square miles of 45 States have been directly affected by subsidence. More that 80 percent of the identified subsidence in the Nation has occurred because of exploitation of underground water, and the increasing development of land and water resources threatens to exacerbate existing land-subsidence problems and initiate new ones.(http://water.usgs.gov/ogw/pubs/fs00165/)
Warning Time: 1—24+ hours
Duration: 4—more than one week
Geographic Location
Land subsidence is common in Reno County because of the salt solution mines. Salt mining started back in the early 1900s with small wells and storage caverns that were two acres or less. Although the lateral area for these caverns is relatively small, due to the mining technique used to solution the salt, in nearly all the older well caverns, the salt roofs are relatively thin or completely absent.
The largest problem is because the geographic location is not known. Therefore, the HMPC has determined that action needs to be taken to locate potential sink holes.
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Table 3.22 Salt Mining Operations from 1900-1920’s in Reno County
Currently Wells Active Estimated Known Estimated Number of Mining No. of to be Total Void Space Risk Location Companies Companies Wells plugged Wells in Acres Category
South 9 2 40 4 44 88 II Hutchinson
Hutchinson 17 0 85 20 85 170 II
Nickerson 1 0 1 0 1 2 II
Total 27 2 126 24 130 260
Source: “Subsurface Void Space and Sinkhole/Subsidence Area Inventory for the State of Kansas”, KDHE, 2006
Table 3.23 Salt Mining Operations from 1920-2006 in Reno County
Monitoring Salt Wells Wells or Acreage in Acreage in Name of Known to Active Collapsed Total Salt Void Space Risk Risk Company be Plugged Wells Wells Wells in Acres Category I Category II
Cargill 5 15 Possible 3 98 245 122 123
IMC (Carey) 78 0 Possible 3 78 195 117 78 Abandoned
Morton 207 17 None 224 560 336 224 Reported
Total 290 32 400 1,000 575 425
Source: “Subsurface Void Space and Sinkhole/Subsidence Area Inventory for the State of Kansas”, KDHE, 2006
In 2006, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment prepared a report on “Subsurface Void Space and Sinkhole/Subsidence Area Inventory for the State of Kansas”. The report inventoried subsurface void space from oil and gas exploration and production, natural sources, shaft mining, and solution mining. In Reno County, the subsurface void spaces have been created from the Lost Circulation Zone which is the dissolution of the salt and gypsum present in the Wellington Formation. This area extends from north of Salina to the Oklahoma border. The void spaces are also created from salt solution mining, rock salt mining, and hydro-carbon storage areas for a total subsurface void space of 97,609 acres.
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Table 3.24 Total Subsurface Void Space in Reno County
Type of Void Space Number of Acres
Lost Circulation Zone 94,720
Salt Solution Mining Void Space 1,260
Rock Salt Mining Void Space 925
Hydro-carbon Storage Areas 704
Total 97,609
Previous Occurrences
Figure 3.23 is a photograph of a sinkhole in Hutchinson that happened in January of 2005. The sinkhole had developed at the old Carey salt solution mining facility near the BNSF mainline railroad tracks.
Figure 3.23 Hutchinson Sinkhole
Source: Mike Cochran, KDHE Bureau of Water, Geology Section Chief
In 1998, surface monitoring began by the Kansas Geological Survey for the Kansas Department of Transportation of a sinkhole at the intersection of U.S. Hwy 50 and Victory Road in Reno County when the depression measured about 1 foot below construction grade. The sinkhole has been documented to average a subsidence rate of 10 inches per year resulting in a drop of about 3.5 feet in the highway since construction. The Kansas Geological Survey concludes that there
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are sufficient rock layers still beneath this sinkhole to sustain the current subsidence rate of about 1 ft/yr for several years to come.
The map below provided by Kansas Department of Transportation, depicts several areas of gradual and rapid subsidence in Reno County.
Figure 3.24 Map of Subsidence Areas & Salt Mines in Central Kansas
Source: http://www.dot.state.fl.us/statematerialsoffice/geotechnical/conference/materials/croxton-henthorne.pdfIndex Map, Indicates location of cross-section, Abbreviations: Hutchinson Navel Air Station (HNAS); U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC); Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) (Walters, 1978).
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Probability of Future Occurrences
According to the Kansas Geological Survey Circular, salt-dissolution sinkholes are found in all areas of Kansas where the Hutchinson Salt is present in the subsurface. Sinkholes have been correlated to the failed containment of disposal wells into which oil-field brine was injected.
Natural dissolution of the Hutchinson Salt is not uncommon in the area and has been occurring for millions of years. Faults extending up to Pleistocene sediments containing fresh water under hydrostatic pressure are postulated as the conduits that instigated salt dissolution and subsidence along the western boundary of the salt in Kansas.
The subsidence of sinkholes in Reno County has been occurring for millions of years and it will continue in the area for many more years. These rates are to some extent, related to the type of deformation in the salt and the strength of rocks directly above the salt layer.
The HMPC has determined that because of the historical subsidence and sinkholes in Reno County, the probability would be likely.
Likely: Level 3 — Event is probable within the next three years
Magnitude/Severity:
The HMPC has determined the magnitude/severity is limited because of not knowing the location of where sinkholes may form. Also, according to the Kansas Geological Survey, there is no definite evidence that catastrophic subsidence could occur in Reno County.
According to the Subsurface Void space and Sinkhole/Subsidence Area Inventory for the State of Kansas, nearly all of the sinkholes and subsidence areas develop slowly over a number of years and can create a shallow surface depression. Structures located over or near the subsidence areas are generally severely damaged or destroyed. At date, no sinkholes have developed over structures in Reno County, only open spaces and near roads.
Limited: Level 2 — 10-25 percent of property severely damaged
Hazard Summary Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 2.5 Moderate
3.2.13 Landslide
Description
A landslide is the downhill movement of masses of soil and rock by gravity. The basic ingredients for landslides are gravity, susceptible soil or rock, sloping ground, and water. Types
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of landslides that occur in Kansas are rock falls, block slides, slumps, earth flows, and creep. Creep is widespread on hillsides throughout Kansas.
Warning Time: Level 1 — More than 24 hours
Duration: Level 1 — Less than 6 hours
Geographic Location
Landslides occur occasionally in Kansas and are a localized problem, but growth of cities provides potential for more property losses. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the areas of Kansas that are most prone to landslides are the Missouri River Corridor in northeastern Kansas. Reno County is in south central Kansas and not prone to landslides. Figure 3.25 is a map of the landside prone areas in Kansas.
Figure 3.25 Landslide-Prone Areas of Kansas
Source: Kansas Geological Survey, www.kgs.ku.edu/Publications/pic13/pic13_1.html Note: Landslide risk is moderate in the shaded areas (1.5 percent to 15 percent of the area is landslide prone). Other areas in Kansas have a low landslide risk (less than 1.5 percent of area).
Previous Occurrences
There are no previous occurrences for Reno County.
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Probability of Future Occurrences
Based on the fact there have been no past events and the large amount of infrastructure in the County, a damaging landslide is unlikely.
Unlikely: Level 1—History of events is less than 10 percent likely per year
Magnitude/Severity:
Reno County does not have a history of landslides and thus the magnitude of this hazard is negligible.
Negligible: Level 1 — Less than 10 percent of property is severely damaged, shutdown of facilities and services for less than 24 hours; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable with first aid.
Hazard Summary Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 1.00 Low
3.2.15 Lightning
Description
Severe thunderstorms strike Kansas on a regular basis with high winds, heavy rains, and the occasional subsequent flooding, often accompanied by lightning. Lightning is an electrical discharge between positive and negative regions of a thunderstorm. It is sudden, extremely destructive and potentially deadly. The National Weather Service reports that lightning caused 48 fatalities and 246 injuries nationwide in 2006 and causes 73 fatalities and 300 injuries in an average year.
The National Lightning Safety Institute reports that lightning causes more than 26,000 fires in the United States each year. The institute estimates that the total cost for direct and indirect impacts of lightning including property damage, increased operating costs, production delays, and lost revenue to be in excess of $6 billion per year.
Due to its nature as a powerful electrical phenomenon, lightning causes extensive damage to electronic systems that it contacts. Of particular concern in Kansas is the protection of facilities and communications systems that are critical for maintaining emergency response systems, protecting public health, and maintaining the state’s economy.
Average duration of each lightning stroke is 30 microseconds and duration of lightning storm events is usually less than six hours. Thunderstorm forecasting and warning time for lightning occurrence is generally less than six hours.
Warning Time: Level 2 — 12-24 hours Reno County, Kansas 3.67 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
Duration: Level 1 — Less than 6 hours
Geographic Location
Lightning affects all areas of the Reno County planning area. Figures 3.26 and 3.27 indicate that the planning area averages 30-50 days with thunderstorms per year per 10,000 square miles and four to eight lightning strikes per square kilometer per year.
Figure 3.26 Distribution and Frequency of Thunderstorms
Source: Oklahoma Climatological Survey Note: Black square indicates approximate location of Reno County
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Figure 3.27 Annual Frequency of Lightning in Kansas, 1996-2000
Source: National Weather Service, www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/lightning_map.htm Note: Black square indicates approximate location of Reno County
Previous Occurrences
The NCDC database records only indicate seven damaging lightning events in Reno County from 1994 to 2008. Although no deaths were reported for these storms, 1 injury and $146,000 in property damage was reported. The NCDC database captures only a very small portion of damaging lightning events; most are not reported. Those events causing property damage include the following:
• July 7, 1994-In Nickerson, three camels died when a lightning struck a tree near their pen.
• June 29, 1998-In Nickerson, a storage shed got fire from a lightning strike. One person sustained minor injuries.
• May 26, 2000-In Hutchinson, the chimney of a church was struck overnight. Several bricks broke off and fell through the roof.
• July 20, 2000-In Buhler, minor damage inflicted to one residence when the lightning traveled thru wiring to an electrical outlet. A second lightning destroyed several hay bales just east of Buhler.
• August 12, 2002-In Pretty Prairie, a house was struck by lightning & a fire caused roof and attic damage.
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• March 31, 2006–A damaging thunderstorm and a small tornado went through the areas east of Hutchinson. A lightning strike started a grass fire east of Hutchinson in an area near 30th Street and Obee Road burning up about 6,000 acres of ground and destroying around 20 buildings (six were homes). All the firefighters in Reno County plus the surrounding counties of Rice, Harvey, & Sedgwick were all assisting to contain this fire and from jumping across the Buhler-Haven Road. The Red Cross operated an evacuation center for the 300-400 residents that were evacuated.
• May 22, 2006-In South Hutchinson a lightning strike set a home ablaze. Lightning struck a 100-foot tall radio antenna located in a field just north of the home. The antenna was connected to a radio in the affected home by a cable. The fire rendered the home uninhabitable but no one was injured.
Probability of Future Occurrences
National Weather Service data indicates that Reno County is in a region that receives four to eight lightning strikes per square kilometer per year. However, most of these lightning strikes do not result in damages. Considering that most lightning strikes do not damage property or impact public safety, the HMPC determined the probability of damaging events to be probable in any given year.
Occasional: Level 2 — Event is probable within the next five years.
Magnitude/Severity
Although the frequency of lightning events is high, the magnitude is limited. Generally damages are limited to single buildings and in most cases, personal hazard insurance covers any losses. The HMPC has determined the overall magnitude and severity is considered negligible.
Negligible: Level 1 — Less than 10 percent of property is severely damaged, shutdown of facilities and services for less than 24 hours; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable with first aid.
Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 1.6 Low
3.2.15 Soil Erosion and Dust
Description
Soil erosion and dust are both ongoing problems for Kansas. Both can cause significant loss of valuable agricultural soils, damage crops, harm environmental resources, and have adverse economic impacts. Soil erosion in Kansas is largely associated with periods of drought (wind
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erosion) and flooding (stream bank erosion). Improper agricultural and grazing practices can also contribute to soil erosion.
The United States is losing soil 10 times faster than the natural replenishment rate, and related production losses cost the nation $37.6 billion each year. Wind erosion is responsible for about 40 percent of this loss and can increase markedly in drought years. Wind erosion physically removes the lighter, less dense soil constituents such as organic matter, clays and silts. Thus it removes the most fertile part of the soil and lowers soil productivity, which can result in lower crop yields or poorer grade pastures and increase economic costs.
Stream bank erosion, which can remove agricultural land and damage transportation systems and utility lines, occurs each year, particularly in the spring. A large proportion of all soil eroded ends up in rivers, streams, and lakes, which makes waterways more prone to flooding and contamination. One type of stream bank erosion occurs after heavy rains when water is released from reservoirs causing water levels to rise in rivers and streams. The dry soil at the top of embankments becomes saturated. When reservoir gates are closed and flows return to normal, water levels suddenly drop and the heavy wet soil at the top of the embankments falls into the rivers and streams below.
Erosion increases the amount of dust carried by wind. Dust can also threaten agriculture and have economic impacts by reducing seedling survival and growth, increasing the susceptibility of plants to certain stressors, and damaging property and equipment (e.g. clogging machinery parts). It is also a threat to health and safety. It acts as an abrasive and air pollutant and carries about 20 human infectious disease organisms (including anthrax and tuberculosis). There is evidence that there is an association between dust and asthma. Some studies indicate that as much as 20 percent of the incidences of asthma are related to dust. Blowing dust can be severe enough to necessitate highway closures because of low visibility, which can cause vehicle accidents.
Erosion also creates a problem by filling in reservoirs with silt, negatively impacting storage capacity and water quality. Because of differing climatic conditions, land uses, and physical attributes in the various watersheds, sedimentation rates vary among the reservoirs. In 2001, the Kansas Water Office completed a report that projected the effect of sedimentation on State- owned storage in federal reservoirs. By the year 2040, sedimentation was projected to reduce the total amount of State-owned storage from 1.2 million acre-feet to roughly 857,000 acre-feet, a rate of loss of 6,260 acre-feet per year.
Warning Time: Level 1 — More than 24 hours
Duration: Level 4 — More than one week
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Geographic Location
Figure 3.28 shows areas of excessive erosion of farmland in Kansas based on a 1997 analysis. Each red dot represents 5,000 acres of excessive erosion of farmland, and each yellow dot represents 5,000 acres with erosion above a tolerable rate. In Reno County and the south central portion of Kansas the erosion rate of land is less high, but the soil loss is still occurring above a tolerable rate.
Figure 3.28 Locations of Excessive Erosion of Farmland, 1997
Source: Kansas Hazard Mitigation Plan, November 2007 Note: Black square indicates approximate location of Reno County
On a broader geographic scale, Figure 3.29 shows that south central Kansas, including Reno County, is inside the area identified by the USDA as vulnerable to severe wind erosion.
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Figure 3.29 USDA Wind Erosion Areas in the United States
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service Wind Erosion Research Unit, www.weru.ksu.edu/ Note: Blue square indicates approximate location of Reno County
Previous Occurrences
Dust storms and soil erosion impact the planning area to varying degrees on an annual basis. No specific dust storm events are recorded. Previous occurrences of notable soil erosion in the planning area have occurred during flood events. These impacts are discussed in the flood hazard profile.
Probability of Future Occurrences
While soil erosion and dust occur annually as part of natural processes, the adverse effects of erosion are only fully realized as a cumulative function. Therefore, the probability of notable effects from soil erosion and dust events is considered occasional; meaning the cumulative effect of annual events reaches a notable level on the average of every five years.
Occasional: Level 2 — Event is probable within the next five years.
Magnitude/Severity Negligible: Level 1 — Less than 10 percent of property is severely damaged, shutdown of facilities and services for less than 24 hours; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable with first aid.
Hazard Summary Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 1.75 Low
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3.2.17 Tornado
Description The National Weather Service defines a tornado as a “violently rotating column of air extending from a thunderstorm to the ground.” Tornadoes are the most violent of all atmospheric storms and are capable of tremendous destruction. Wind speeds can exceed 250 miles per hour (mph), and damage paths can be more than 1 mile wide and 50 miles long. In an average year, more than 900 tornadoes are reported in the United States, resulting in approximately 80 deaths and more than 1500 injuries. High winds not associated with tornadoes are profiled separately in this document in Section 3.2.19 Windstorm.
Although tornadoes have been documented on every continent, they occur most frequently in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Kansas is situated in an area that is generally known as “Tornado Alley.” Climatological conditions are such that warm and cold air masses meet in the center of the country to create conditions of great instability and fast moving air at high pressure that can ultimately result in formation of tornado funnels.
In Kansas, most tornadoes and related deaths and injuries occur during the months of April, May, and June. However, tornadoes have struck in every month. While most tornadoes occur between 3:00 and 9:00 p.m., a tornado can strike at any time. Warning time for tornadoes is generally less than six hours. The National Weather Service issues tornado watches and warnings.
Prior to February 1, 2007, tornado intensity was measured by the Fujita scale. This scale was revised to the Enhanced Fujita scale, which provides more damage indicators (28) and associated degrees of damage, allowing for more detailed analysis and better correlation between damage and wind speed. It is also more precise because it takes into account the materials affected and the construction of structures damaged by a tornado. Table 3.25 shows the wind speeds associated with the Enhanced Fujita Scale ratings.
Table 3.25 Enhanced Fujita Scale
Enhanced Fujita Scale Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale Wind Estimate (mph) EF0 65-85 EF1 86-110 EF2 111-135 EF3 136-165 EF4 166-200 EF5 Over 200 Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center, www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/ef-scale.html
Warning Time: Level 4—less than six hours
Duration: Level 1 — Less than 6 hours
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Geographic Location
The entire planning area is at risk for tornadoes. Some areas of Kansas have experienced a greater number of high intensity tornadoes than others. Figure 3.30 illustrates the number of F3, F4, and F5 tornadoes recorded in the United States per 3,700 square miles between 1950 and 1998. Reno County is located in the section shaded dark orange or red, indicating 16-25 tornadoes of this magnitude during this 48-year period.
Figure 3.30 Tornado Activity in the United States
Source: NOAA, Storm Prediction Center Note: Black square indicates approximate location of Reno County
All of Reno County, including all of the participating jurisdictions, is at risk to tornadoes.
Previous Occurrences
According to the NCDC database, 67 tornadoes occurred in Reno County between 1950 and 2008. Of these, 42 were rated F0, 11 were rated F1, 7 were rated F2, 5 were rated F3, 1was rated F4, and 1 was rated F5. Total personal property damage was estimated at $60 million. There were 17 injuries due to tornadoes reported during this time period. Table 3.26 summarizes these events.
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Table 3.26 Recorded Tornadoes in Reno County, 1950-2008.
Property Location Date Magnitude Injuries Damage Reno County 5/1/1954 F2 0 $3,000 Reno County 8/5/1954 F2 0 0 Reno County 6/1/1955 F0 0 0 Reno County 6/3/1955 F0 0 0 Reno County 6/21/1957 F1 0 0 Reno County 5/4/1959 F2 0 0 Reno County 5/4/1959 F1 0 0 Reno County 5/24/1962 F2 2 0 Reno County 5/24/1962 F1 2 0
Reno County 5/24/1962 F3 2 0
Reno County 5/24/1962 F3 0 $250,000 Reno County 6/4/1965 F3 2 $250,000 Reno County 6/7/1967 F0 0 0 Reno County 6/11/1967 F1 0 $250,000 Reno County 11/19/1973 F0 0 $25,000 Reno County 5/13/1974 F1 0 $2,500,000 Reno County 5/13/1974 F2 2 $2,500,000 Reno County 5/13/1974 F2 0 0 Reno County 6/13/1984 F0 0 0 Reno County 6/13/1984 F0 0 0 Reno County 6/23/1984 F1 0 $25,000
Reno County 8/23/1985 F0 0 $25,000
Reno County 4/27/1986 F0 0 0 Reno County 5/31/1988 F0 0 0 Reno County 6/26/1988 F0 0 0 Reno County 6/26/1988 F0 0 0 Reno County 3/11/1990 F0 0 0 Reno County 3/13/1990 F5 1 $25,000,000 Reno County 3/13/1990 F3 0 $250,000 Reno County 6/7/1990 F2 0 $2,500,000 Reno County 6/19/1990 F1 0 $25,000 Reno County 8/14/1990 F0 0 0 Reno County 3/26/1991 F3 1 $250,000 Reno County 3/26/1991 F4 5 $25,000,000 Reno County 3/26/1991 F0 0 0 Turon 5/17/1993 F0 0 0 Arlington 5/22/1995 F0 0 0 Pretty Prairie 5/22/1995 F0 0 0 Arlington 5/9/1996 F1 0 0 Nickerson 5/18/1997 F0 0 0 Nickerson 5/18/1997 F0 0 0
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Property Location Date Magnitude Injuries Damage Sylvia 5/18/1997 F0 0 0 Haven 5/25/1997 F0 0 $250,000 Buhler 6/8/1998 F0 0 0 Buhler 5/4/1999 F1 0 $1,000,000 Haven 9/26/1999 F0 0 0 Pretty Prairie 4/11/2002 F0 0 0 Sylvia 5/11/2002 F0 0 0 Sylvia 5/11/2002 F0 0 0 Haven 6/15/2002 F0 0 0 Partridge 7/9/2003 F0 0 0 Langdon 7/9/2003 F0 0 0 Partridge 7/3/2005 F0 0 0 Arlington 7/3/2005 F0 0 0 Pretty Prairie 7/3/2005 F0 0 0 Pretty Prairie 7/3/2005 F1 0 $60,000 Hutchinson 3/30/2006 F0 0 $80,000 Nickerson 4/24/2007 F0 0 0 Nickerson 4/24/2007 F0 0 0 Nickerson 4/24/2007 F0 0 0 Nickerson 4/24/2007 F0 0 0 Nickerson 4/24/2007 F0 0 0 Nickerson 4/24/2007 F0 0 0 Langdon 5/6/2007 F0 0 0 Hutchinson 5/6/2007 F0 0 0 Whiteside 5/23/2008 F1 0 $65,000 Source: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC); http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~storms Note: Zero (0) values may indicate missing data.
• May 4, 1999-The tornado in Buhler was viewed by school children on their way to a track meet. No one was harmed by this tornado and school officials were able to get the kids to safety.
During 2005-2007, Reno County received USDA emergency designations two times for tornadoes; once in 2005 and once in 2007.
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Figure 3.31 Destructive Path of F5 Tornado, March 13, 1990.
Source: The Hutchinson News
Probability of Future Occurrences
The National Severe Storms Laboratory calculated probability of significant (F2 or larger) and violent (F4 or larger) tornadoes based on time of year for the period 1921-1995.
Figure 3.32 indicates the probability of F2 or greater tornadoes over a 100-year interval for the United States. Probability contours were calculated based on tornado occurrence, magnitude, and location data gathered for the period of 1921-1995. Based on these estimates of probability, Reno County is likely to experience approximately 25-30 violent tornado occurrences over a 100-year period. Many of these will occur in areas that are not populated and therefore would not cause significant damage; the probability of violent tornados impacting towns is lower than the overall regional probability represented in the map.
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Figure 3.32 Frequencies of F2 or Larger Tornadoes, 1921-1995
Source: NSSL, http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/sigt2195.gif Note: Black rectangle indicates approximate location of Reno County
Based on NCDC records of 67 tornado events over a 58-year period in Reno County, there is a 100 percent probability of a tornado occurring in any given year. This, along with the location of Reno County in a high tornado activity zone, makes the probability of future tornado occurrence highly likely according to the definitions set forth in the hazard profile methodology.
Highly Likely: Level 4 — Event is probable within the next year
Magnitude/Severity
The most severe tornado impacts on record in Reno County resulted from an F5 tornado that touched down in March 1990. The tornado was 1320 yards wide and traveled 21 miles in a north western direction, causing an estimated $25 million in damages, and caused one injury before moving on to Harvey County. According to NCDC reports, another devastating tornado happened in March 1991. The tornado was 300 yards wide and traveled 13 miles in north western direction, causing an estimated $25 million in damages, and also caused 5 injuries. The HMPC has determined that the worst-case scenario should be considered for mitigation planning
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purposes. In Reno County, the worst-case scenario tornado event would be an EF5 rated tornado striking a population center in the planning area.
Catastrophic: Level 4 — More than 50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than 30 days; and/or multiple deaths.
Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 3.7 High
3.2.18 Utility/Infrastructure Failure
Description
Critical infrastructure involves several different types of facilities and systems: transportation, power systems, natural gas and oil pipelines, water and sewer systems, storage networks, and telecommunications facilities. State and locally designated critical facilities, such as hospitals, government centers, etc., are also considered critical infrastructure. Failure of utilities or other components of the infrastructure in the planning area could seriously impact public health, the functioning of communities, and the economy. Disruption of any of these services could result as a secondary impact from drought, flood, tornado, windstorm, winter storm, lightning, and extreme heat (water systems are particularly vulnerable to drought).
Warning Time: Level 4—less than six hours
Duration: Level 3 — Less than one week
Geographic Location
Power Providers/Infrastructure Utility lines and critical infrastructure are located throughout Reno County, concentrated in the county’s population centers and on lines connecting them. Figure 3.33 below shows the locations of petroleum facilities, petroleum pipelines, electric transmission lines, and gas transmission pipelines in Reno County.
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Figure 3.33 Reno County Utilities and Infrastructure
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Electric Providers Electricity providers in Reno County include: Ark Valley Electric Coop, Kansas Gas & Electric Co, Kansas Power & Light Co, Midwest Energy, Ninnescah Rural Electric Coop, Sedgwick County Electric Coop, Aquila Networks, and a small portion of the County receives their electricity from the municipality of Sterling in neighboring Rice County. The locations of these suppliers are provided in the map in Figure 3.34.
Figure 3.34 Electric Map of Reno County, Kansas
Source: Kansas Corporation Commission, http://www.kcc.state.ks.us/maps/
Water Supply The water suppliers in Reno County are Reno County Rural Water District No. 1, 3, 4, 8, and 101. The supply areas are depicted in the map in Figure 3.35 for these main water supplies.
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Figure 3.35 Reno County Public Water Supply Systems
Source: Kansas Rural Water Association, http://www.krwa.net/krwa/mapovers/countymaps/Reno_Co.pdf
Natural Gas Public Utilities The natural gas public utilities in Reno County are Kansas Gas Service and Aquila Networks- KGO and individual cities. The service areas are provided in the map in Figure 3.36
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Figure 3.36 Certified Areas of Natural Gas Public Utilities in Reno County
Source: Kansas Corporation Commission, http://www.kcc.state.ks.us/maps/ks_gas_certified_areas.pdf
Previous Occurrences
In January 2001, 143 million cubic feet of compressed natural gas leaked from a nearby storage field. The natural gas migrated underground, and then rose to the surface through old brine wells creating about 15 gas blowholes. An explosion in downtown Hutchinson destroyed two businesses and damaged many others. Another explosion occurred the next day at a mobile home park three miles away from the first explosion. Two residents died of injuries from the explosion and hundreds of people were evacuated as gas geysers began erupting in the area. Some geysers reached as high as 30 feet in the air. Below is a photo courtesy of the Hutchinson News. It was the largest of several natural gas geysers that spewed dirt, water and gas northwest of the Big Chief Mobile Home Park in Hutchinson.
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Figure 3.37 Gas Geyser in Hutchinson
Source: The Hutchinson News, January 2001
Each year disruptions to utility services ranging from minor to serious are a secondary result of other hazard events including drought, flood, tornado, windstorm, winter storm, lightning, and extreme heat.
• March 16-17, 1998–Widespread freezing rain across central and parts of south-central Kansas caused $1 million dollars in property damage. There was extensive damage done to trees, power lines and power poles. • January 28-31, 2002–Widespread freezing rain and sleet covered Reno County, with an accumulation of 1-2 inches of ice on power lines. The result was numerous power outages and $15 million in property damage. • January 4-6, 2005–An icy winter storm left several communities in Reno County without power. The icy weather caused downed power lines and broken poles all over the County. Governor Kathleen Sebelius declared a state of disaster emergency for 56 counties. This powerful storm caused three fatalities, two injuries, and $30 million in property damage for all of central and most of south-central Kansas. • December 10, 2007–Two inches of ice accumulated in Reno County during an ice storm. The ice caused roughly 2000 downed power poles and 7900 downed power lines. The damage to the electrical infrastructure was estimated to by $37.5 million. • June 14, 2009–Severe storms produced dime to golf ball size hail and damaging straight-line winds gusts up to 90 mph reported near Hutchinson. The caused rood damage to residences and businesses. The City of Hutchinson Public Works Building has structural damage with A/C units blown off the rook and metal doors blown in. Tree damage also resulted in downed power lines with numerous power outages. (Source: KDEM & National Weather Service, dated June 18, 2009)
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Probability of Future Occurrences
Infrastructure failure can occur as a secondary impact as a result of winter storm, tornado, windstorm, flood, dam and levee failure, lightning, extreme heat and/or solar storm activity. The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start in March 2008 and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012.
In addition, this hazard can occur as a result of unintentional equipment failure or intentional equipment failure. Due to the numerous potential causes of infrastructure failure, the HMPC determined the probability of this hazard to be “highly likely”.
Highly Likely: Level 4 — Event is probable within the next year
Magnitude/Severity
When utility/infrastructure failure does occur, utility providers generally respond quickly to restore service. However, depending on the cause of the utility disruption, events of prolonged outage do occur. Reno County is particularly vulnerable to winter storm events (discussed in the Section 3.2.20). This is a common cause of utility failure and can lead to prolonged outages.
Critical: Level 3 — 25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability
Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 3.6 High
3.2.19 Wildfire
Description
Wildfires in Kansas typically originate in pasture or prairie areas following the ignition of dry grasses (by natural or human sources). Since protecting people and structures takes priority, a wildfire’s cost to natural resources, crops, and pastured livestock can be ecologically and economically devastating. In addition to the health and safety impacts to those directly affected by fires, the state is also concerned about the health affects of smoke emissions in surrounding areas.
Wildfires in Kansas are frequently associated with lightning and drought conditions, as dry- conditions make vegetation more flammable. Wind is another factor that can quickly increase the size and severity of fire. As new development encroaches into the wildland-urban interface (areas where development occurs within or immediately adjacent to wildlands, near fire-prone trees, brush, and/or other vegetation), more and more structures and people are at risk. On occasion, ranchers, farmers or land managers will intentionally ignite vegetation to restore soil Reno County, Kansas 3.86 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
nutrients or alter the existing vegetation growth. These ‘controlled burn’ fires have the potential to erupt into wildfires if wind conditions rapidly change or if adequate safeguards are not in place.
The Western States Fire Manager’s office reports that careless debris burning was the leading cause of wildfire in Kansas for the 1996-2000 period, accounting for 42 percent of the out-of- control fires. Careless cigarette use and suspected arson activities were tied for second place at 7 percent each.
The onset of wildfire can be rapid, particularly when fire starts in a remote area and is fanned by strong winds. The duration of wildfire in Kansas is somewhat shorter than wildfires that occur in sloped and heavily forested areas, and generally are extinguished in less than one day. Warning time is generally adequate for safe evacuation of threatened properties, but is less than six hours for locations close to the point of ignition. The National Weather Service provides Red Flag Warnings when weather conditions may result in extreme fire hazard conditions. These are issued when a fire has occurred and/or when the fire weather forecaster has a high degree of confidence that Red Flag criteria will occur within 24 hours of issuance. Red Flag criteria are met when the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS, see Figure 3.38) adjective class rating level is ‘high’ to ‘extreme’ and the following weather parameters are forecast to be met:
1) sustained wind 15 mph or greater 2) relative humidity less than or equal to 25 percent 3) temperature greater than 75 degrees F.
In some states, dry lightning and unstable air are criteria. A Fire Weather Watch may be issued prior to the Red Flag Warning.
Figure 3.38 NFDRS/Wildland Fire Assessment System Adjective Class Rating
Fire Danger Rating and Color Code Description Low (L) Fuels do not ignite readily from small firebrands although a more intense heat (Dark G reen) source, such as lightning, may start fires in duff or punky w ood. Fires in open cured grasslands may bum freely a few hours after rain, but w oods fires spread slow ly by creeping or smoldering, and burn in irregular fingers. There is little danger of spotting. M oderate (M ) Fires can start from most accidental causes, but w ith the exception of lightning (Light G reen or fires in some areas, the number of starts is generally low . Fires in open cured Blue) grasslands w ill burn briskly and spread rapidly on w indy days. Timber fires spread slow ly to moderately fast. The average fire is of moderate intensity, although heavy concentrations of fuel, especially draped fuel, may burn hot. Short-distance spotting may occur, but is not persistent. Fires are not likely to become serious and control is relatively easy. H igh (H ) All fine dead fuels ignite readily and fires start easily from most causes. (Yellow ) U nattended brush and campfires are likely to escape. Fires spread rapidly and short-distance spotting is common. H igh-intensity burning may develop on slopes or in concentrations of fine fuels. Fires may become serious and their control Reno County, Kansas 3.87 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
difficult unless they are attacked successfully w hile small. Very H igh (VH ) Fires start easily from all causes and, immediately after ignition, spread rapidly (O range) and increase quickly in intensity. Spot fires are a constant danger. Fires burning in light fuels may quickly develop high intensity characteristics such as long-distance spotting and fire w hirlw inds w hen they burn into heavier fuels. Extrem e (E) Fires start quickly, spread furiously, and burn intensely. All fires are potentially (Red) serious. Development into high intensity burning w ill usually be faster and occur from smaller fires than in the very high fire danger class. Direct attack is rarely possible and may be dangerous except immediately after ignition. Fires that develop headw ay in heavy slash or in conifer stands may be unmanageable w hile the extreme burning condition lasts. U nder these conditions the only effective and safe control action is on the flanks until the w eather changes or the fuel supply lessens. Source: US Forest Service
Warning Time: Level 4—less than six hours
Duration: Level 2 — Less than one day
Geographic Location
The Kansas Forest Service completed a Community Wildfire Hazard Assessment Report for Reno County in January 2009. This report, included in its entirety in Appendix C details the conclusions of the status of Wildland Urban Interface issues that might have an impact on the safety of persons and/or property in Reno County Kansas. To complete the assessment, Forest Service personnel obtained baseline data on the Wildland Urban Interface boundaries from the USGS website Geo Mac (www.geomac.gov). This data was then confirmed with a “windshield” survey. The assessment concludes the following:
• South Hutchinson, Buhler, Haven, Pretty Prairie, Turon, and Sylvia, Abbyville, and Partridge have overall low wildfire hazard ratings. There are hazardous fuel loads of native grasses, timber litter, and eastern red cedar that will create concern if the growth and density continue to increase. At the current time, most of the properties in the wildland-urban interface seem to have good clearances. • The City of Willowbrook has an overall low hazard rating with well maintained defensible space. There are however, several structures in the area that would benefit from defensible space maintenance, because there is sufficient amount of fuel load in the area’s wild lands to carry an intense enough wildfire to cause significant Wildfire Urban Interface (WUI) damage. • Nickerson and Arlington have moderate wildfire hazard ratings. In most years, the communities of Nickerson and Arlington do not have significant risk. However, in years of extreme drought, the concentrations of fuels in the timbered areas of these communities could carry intense fires through the dead and down hardwood fuels that are intermixed with eastern red cedars and grasses.
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• Langdon has a moderate wildfire hazard rating. This community is a concern due to the heavy fuel loads of hardwood timber in close proximity to structures. Hardwood timber poses a threat to structures, especially in times of drought. • The City of Plevna has a moderate wildfire hazard rating. The defensible space within the community was well maintained, but the concern is the narrow fuel breaks between the community and the surrounding wild land fuels. • There are several communities within Hutchinson that have a high hazard rating. Larger communities should have sufficient breaks in loads of fuel to prevent the spread of wildfire due to vegetation. It is the areas immediately surrounding the city that were observed to have several residences and other structures that are in close proximity to heavy concentrations of hazardous wildland fire fuel loads.
Figure 3.39 and figure 3.40 provide the locations of the areas surveyed as well as the risk level determination.
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Figure 3.39 Reno County Wildfire Assessment Findings
Source: Kansas Forest Service
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Figure 3.40 Wildfire Assessment – Hutchinson Area
Source: Kansas Forest Service
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There is an increased risk in agricultural areas where Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) land is burned and in rural areas where individuals burn trash or debris. During high wind conditions, these small fires can get out of control and spread to dry vegetation such as native grasses, shrubs, and invasive eastern red cedar trees.
Previous Occurrences
According to data from the Kansas State Fire Marshal’s Office, 566 wildfires occurred in Reno County between 2003 and 2006. 2005 was the most devastating, with one fatality. In 2004 only 449 acres burned but $1,571,555 in property damage occurred. The table below details information on previous wildfire occurrence compiled by the State Fire Marshal’s Office.
Table 3.27 Wildfires in Reno County, 2003-2006
Year #Fires Injuries Fatalities Dollar Loss ($) Acres Burned 2003 146 0 0 406,260 829 2004 115 1 0 1,571,555 449 2005 129 0 1 208,060 621 2006 176 0 0 188,520 1,020 Total 566 1 1 2,374,395 2,919 4-Year Average 142 .25 .25 593,599 730 Source: Kansas State Fire Marshal’s Office
February 9, 2006-a large grass fire started along the Reno/Harvey County line. It spread quickly due to recent drought conditions and high winds. It took 70 firefighting units from 6 counties to extinguish the fire. It burned approximately 8,800 acres and caused roughly $30,000 damage to ranch and farmland.
March 31, 2006-According to the Kansas Forest Service Community Wildfire Report and the County Emergency Manager, the wildland/urban interface issue is not unheard of to citizens of Reno County, a lighting strike fire started near 30th St. and Obee Rd in Hutchinson. By the time the fire was contained it burned 6,000 acres, over 20 structures, six houses, and numerous campers, automobiles and farm implements. There were 300 to 400 residents that were evacuated and the Red Cross operated an evacuation center.
Probability of Future Occurrences
About 75 percent of Kansas wildfires start during summer due to dry weather conditions. Reno County experiences, on average, 142 wildland/crop fires across 730 acres each year. Although small, wildfires do occur in Reno County on an annual basis. Future occurrences of this hazard are likely to increase if development in wildland-urban interface areas increases.
Likely: Level 3 — Event is probable within the next three years
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Magnitude/Severity
Wildfires occur on an annual basis; however, most do not result in significant threat to life or property. The Kansas Forest Service wildfire hazard assessment found most of the County at low risk with some areas of moderate to high risk.
Limited: Level 2 — 10-25 percent of property severely damaged
Hazard Summary
Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 2.75 Moderate
3.2.20 Windstorm
Description
Straight-line winds are generally any thunderstorm wind that is not associated with rotation (i.e., not a tornado). These winds, which can exceed 100 mph, represent the most common type of severe weather and are the most common cause of thunderstorm damage. The National Weather Service defines high winds as “sustained wind speeds of 40 mph or greater lasting for one hour or longer, or winds of 58 mph or greater for any duration.”
Since thunderstorms do not have a narrow track like a tornado, associated wind damage can be extensive and affect broad regions including multiple counties. Objects like trees, barns, outbuildings, high-profile vehicles, and power lines/poles can be toppled or destroyed, and roofs, windows, and homes can be damaged as wind speeds increase. One type of straight-line wind is the downburst, which can cause damage equivalent to a strong tornado and can be extremely dangerous to aviation.
Thunderstorms over Kansas typically happen between late April and early September, but, given the right conditions, they can develop as early as March. They are usually produced by super cell thunderstorms or a line of thunderstorms that typically develop on hot and humid days. Warning time for severe windstorms is generally 6-12 hours but in certain cases wind gusts can occur with almost no warning. The duration of the peak intensity of windstorms is usually less than one day. The National Weather Service provides public warnings when atmospheric conditions increase the probability of windstorm occurrence.
Warning Time: Level 2 — 12-24 hours
Duration: Level 2 — Less than one day
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Geographic Location
Figure 3.41 below shows the wind zones of the United States based on maximum wind speeds. Reno County is located within Wind Zone IV, the zone in the United States that has experienced the greatest number of and strongest windstorms. All of Reno County, including all participating jurisdictions is vulnerable to windstorms.
Figure 3.41 Wind Zones in the United States
Source: FEMA; http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/saferoom/tsfs02_wind_zones.shtm
Previous Occurrences
According to the NCDC database, there were 296 windstorm occurrences in Reno County between 1956 and 2008. There were 20 injuries and 1 fatality recorded for that period, and the total property damage for the events between 1993 and 2008 is estimated at $17,236,000.
• July 1, 1994 - A severe thunderstorm was reported 60-80 mile per hour winds causing widespread damage in Hutchinson. The storm caused about $500,000 in property damage. • September 29, 1995 – High winds twisted the frame work of a local greenhouse in Reno County causing approximately $200,000 in property damage. • April 14, 1999 – High winds of 39-61knots tore through south central Kansas causing roughly $125,000 in property damage. These high winds caused downed trees and power
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lines, leaving 2,000 residents without power in Hutchinson. It also overturned ten tractor trailers in Reno County. • August 12, 2002 – A state of disaster was declared by the governor due to wind speeds between 70-87 knots that caused many downed trees and power lines and poles, resulting in approximately 7,315 residents without power. One single-family home, five mobile homes, and a shed were completely destroyed due to the high winds. Five single-family homes and six mobile homes sustained major damage. There were 26 empty Union Pacific freight cars blown off a siding. Approximately 70 other structures had minor damage. The estimated property damage was $2 million. • July 3, 2005 – A thunderstorm rolled through the area causing the Governor Kathleen Sebelius to issue a declaration of disaster emergency for Reno County. There were 6 injuries and one fatality. Chaney Lake State Park reported major damage, including the marina, 125 boats, 35 campers, and mobile homes. The total property damage was estimated to be $12.5 million and the crop damage due to erosion and was approximately $2.0 million dollars. Roughly 155,000 acres of farmland were considered a total loss. Among the crops that were destroyed were wheat, corn, grain sorghum, and soybeans. • June 6, 2006 – Straight line winds between 80 to 100 mph hit the city of Turon. There was approximately $411,000 property damage. Numerous grain silos and bins were destroyed. There were also a transformer and several power poles damaged, causing the whole town to be without power. • January 27, 2008 – Numerous thunderstorms went through Reno County causing one injury and an estimated $80,000 in property damage. There were two semi-truck trailers that were blown over, as well as several fireworks tents. Six power poles were damaged resulting in 7,000 residents without power. • FEMA-1849-DR: Severe Storms, Flooding, Straight-line Winds, and Tornadoes April 25-May 16, 2009 Reno County sustained wind damage twice during the disaster timeframe. On May 8, 2009, destructive straight line winds with a fast-moving bank of severe thunderstorms tracked southeast across the State. Winds reached 80 to 100 mph and knocked down power lines, uprooted large trees, and caused structural damage to some buildings. Then on June 14, 2009, severe storms produced dime to golf ball size hail and damaging straight-line winds gusts up to 90 mph reported near Hutchinson. This caused roof damage to residences and businesses. The City of Hutchinson Public Works Building has structural damage with A/C units blown off the rook and metal doors blown in. Tree damage also resulted in downed power lines with numerous power outages. Reno County received $624,000 from FEMA’s Public Assistance for clean-up and repairs to public buildings. (Source: KDEM & National Weather Service, date June 18, 2009).
According to the USDA Risk Management Agency, insured crop losses in Reno County as a result of excess wind conditions from 2005 to 2008 totaled $259,878. Table 3.28 provides a summary of claims paid, by year, crop, and hazard that caused damages.
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Table 3.28 Claims Paid in Reno County for Crop Loss as a Result of Excess Wind Conditions
Year Crop Hazard Claims Paid ($) 2005 Wheat Wind/Excess Wind 11,500 2007 Grain Sorghum Wind/Excess Wind 19,464
2008 Wheat Wind/Excess Wind 120,313
2008 Corn Wind/Excess Wind 108,601
Total 259,878 Source: USDA Risk Management Agency, 2009
Probability of Future Occurrences
The National Severe Storms Laboratory calculated the probability of windstorms based on time of year for the period 1980-1999.
Based on a similar methodology described for the previous graph, Figure 3.42 below shows the probability of a windstorm (65 knots or greater) occurring on any given day at a location within a 25 mile radius of the center of Reno County.
Figure 3.42 Annual Windstorm Probabilities in United States, 1980-1994
Source: NSSL, http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/bigwind.gif Note: Black rectangle indicates approximate location of Reno County
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According to NCDC, there were 296 wind or thunderstorm/wind events in Reno County between 1950 and 2008. The HMPC has determined the probability of significant, damaging wind events is “highly likely”.
Highly Likely: Level 4 — Event is probable within the next year
Magnitude/Severity Windstorms in Reno County are rarely life threatening, but can cause significant property and crop damage and have adverse economic impacts from business closures and infrastructure damage.
Limited: Level 2 — 10-25 percent of property severely damaged
Hazard Summary Calculated Priority Risk Index Planning Significance 2.9 High
3.2.21 Winter Storm
Description
Winter storms in Kansas typically involve snow, extreme cold, and/or freezing rain (ice storms). These conditions pose a serious threat to public safety, disrupt commerce and transportation, and can damage utilities and communications infrastructure. Winter storms can also disrupt emergency and medical services, hamper the flow of supplies, and isolate homes and farms. Heavy snow can collapse roofs and down trees onto power lines. Extreme cold conditions can stress or kill unprotected livestock and freeze water sources. Direct and indirect economic impacts of winter storms include cost of snow removal, damage repair, increased heating bills, business and crop losses, power failures and frozen or burst water lines.
For humans, extreme cold can cause hypothermia (an extreme lowering of the body’s temperature) and permanent loss of limbs due to frostbite. Infants and the elderly are particularly at risk, but anyone can be affected. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, approximately 600 adults die from hypothermia each year, with the isolated elderly being most at risk. Also at risk are those without shelter or live in a home that is poorly insulated or without heat. Other potential health and safety threats include toxic fumes from emergency heaters, household fires caused by fireplaces or emergency heaters, and driving in treacherous conditions.
The National Weather Service describes different types of winter storm conditions as follows:
• Blizzard—Winds of 35 mph or more with snow and blowing snow reducing visibility to less than 1/4 mile for at least three hours.
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• Blowing Snow—Wind-driven snow that reduces visibility. Blowing snow may be falling snow and/or snow on the ground picked up by the wind. • Snow Squalls—Brief, intense snow showers accompanied by strong, gusty winds. Accumulation may be significant. • Snow Showers—Snow falling at varying intensities for brief periods of time. Some accumulation is possible. • Freezing Rain—Measurable rain that falls onto a surface whose temperature is below freezing. This causes the rain to freeze on surfaces, such as trees, cars, and roads, forming a coating or glaze of ice. Most freezing-rain events are short lived and occur near sunrise between the months of December and March. • Sleet—Rain drops that freeze into ice pellets before reaching the ground. Sleet usually bounces when hitting a surface and does not stick to objects.
Wind can greatly amplify the impact of cold ambient air temperatures and thus the severity of winter storms. Provided by the National Weather Service, Figure 3.43 below shows the relationship of wind speed to apparent temperature and typical time periods for the onset of frostbite.
Figure 3.43 Wind Chill Chart
Source: NOAA, National Weather Service, http://www.weather.gov/om/windchill/
Duration of the most severe impacts of winter storms is generally less than one week, though dangerous cold, snow, and ice conditions can remain present for longer periods in certain cases. Weather forecasts are commonly predict the most severe winter storms at least 24 hours in advance, leaving adequate time to warn the public. Reno County, Kansas 3.98 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
Warning Time: Level 2 — 12-24 hours
Duration: Level 3 — Less than one week
Geographic Location
All of Reno County is vulnerable to winter storm events. Figure 3.44 below shows average annual snowfall for the state of Kansas. North western Kansas receives the greatest average annual snowfall with upwards of 40 inches per year. The south central region of Kansas that includes Reno County, receives the least snowfall in the state, averaging 4.6 to 9.4 inches per year. The area of southeastern Kansas that includes Reno County receives more hours of freezing rain than any other region in Kansas.
Figure 3.44 Average Annual Snowfall in Kansas
Source: Kansas State University Weather Data Library, http://www.oznet.ksu.edu/wdl/Maps/Climatic/AnnualFreezeMap.asp Note: Black square indicates Reno County
Table 3.29 summarizes record low temperatures by month in Reno County from 1953 to 2008.
Table 3.29 Record Low Temperatures by Month, 1953 to 2008
Minimum Minimum Month Temp. Month Temp. January -16 July 46 February -19 August 46 March -6 September 29 April 16 October 12 May 28 November 1
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June 42 December -18 Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center, http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/data/historical/index.php?state=ks&action=select_state&submit=Select+State Previous Occurrences
Reno County has received three federal disaster declarations for winter storms:
• March 16-17, 1998 – Widespread freezing rain across central and parts of south-central Kansas caused $1 million dollars in property damage. There was extensive damage done to trees, power lines and power poles. • January 28-31, 2002 – Widespread freezing rain and sleet covered Reno County, with an accumulation of 1-2 inches of ice on power lines. The result was numerous power outages and $15 million in property damage. • FEMA-1579-DR: Severe Winter Storm -January 4-6, 2005 – An icy winter storm left several communities in Reno County without power. The icy weather caused downed power lines and broken poles all over the county. Governor Kathleen Sebelius declared a state of disaster emergency for 56 counties. This powerful storm caused three fatalities, two injuries, and $30 million in property damage for all of central and most of south-central Kansas. Many communities such as Pretty Prairie, incurred massive tree damage from this event. Jurisdictions in Reno County received $1,178,999 in FEMA’s Public Assistance funds from this disaster. • FEMA-1741-DR: Severe Winter Storm-December 10, 2007 – Two inches of ice accumulated in Reno County during an ice storm. The ice caused roughly 2000 downed power poles and 7900 downed power lines. The damage to the electrical infrastructure was estimated to by $37.5 million. In particular, Partridge did not have electricity for five to six days, Plevna was without for seven to ten days, and Abbyville was without for nine days due to the event. Jurisdictions in Reno County received $1,873,404 in FEMA’s Public Assistance funds from this disaster. • FEMA-1848-DR: Severe Winter Storm and Record and Near Record Snow-March 27, 2009 - A very significant late season Winter storm dumped one to two feet of snow across parts of Central, South Central and Southwest Kansas. The heavy snow and strong winds resulted in blizzard conditions in some of these areas from Friday March 27th into early Saturday March 28th. Reno County was in the area that received up to 20 inches of snow. Meanwhile, significant accumulations of ice from freezing rain and sleet also affected the Flint Hills and Southeast Kansas, with some snow accumulations before the wintry precipitation ended Saturday evening. Several areas reported power outages due to the snow, ice and wind. Jurisdictions in Reno County received $115,362 in FEMA’s public Assistance funds from this disaster.
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Figure 3.45 City of Plevna’s clean up and tree removal efforts after December 2007 event
Source: City of Plevna
According to the USDA Risk Management Agency, insured crop losses in Reno County as a result of winter weather conditions from 2005 to 2008 totaled over $13.3 million. Table 3.30 provides a summary of claims paid, by year, crop, and hazard that caused damages.
Table 3.30 Claims Paid for Reno Crop Loss as a Result of Winter Weather Conditions
Year Crop Hazard Claims Paid ($) 2005 Wheat Frost 51,596 2005 Wheat Freeze 264,829 2005 Wheat Cold Weather 11,890 2005 Wheat Cold Wet Weather 22,606 2006 Wheat Freeze 7,333 2007 Wheat Frost 154,239 2007 Wheat Freeze 11,025,975 2007 Wheat Cold Winter 2,009 2007 Canola Freeze 108,000 2007 Oats Freeze 1,808 2007 Barley Frost 1,208 2008 Wheat Freeze 94,447 2008 Wheat Cold Winter 175,013 2008 Wheat Cold Wet Weather 1,291,756 2008 Canola Cold Winter 42,392 2008 Grain Sorghum Frost 14,716 2008 Grain Sorghum Freeze 12,220 2008 Grain Sorghum Cold Weather 678 2008 Soybeans Freeze 9,767 2008 Soybeans Cold Wet Weather 24,708 Total 13,317,190 Reno County, Kansas 3.101 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
Source: USDA Risk Management Agency, 2009
Probability of Future Occurrences
During the 15-year period from 1993 to 2008, there were 17 recorded winter storm events in Reno County. Based on that history, there is an annual likelihood of 100 percent for winter storms.
Highly Likely: Level 4 — Event is probable within the next year
Magnitude/Severity
Winter weather in Reno County, including ice storms, strong winds, and blizzard conditions, can result in property damage, localized power and phone outages and closures of streets, highways, schools, businesses, and nonessential government operations. People can also become isolated from essential services in their homes and vehicles. A winter storm can escalate, creating life threatening situations when emergency response is limited by severe winter conditions. Other issues associated with severe winter weather include hypothermia and the threat of physical overexertion that may lead to heart attacks or strokes.
Critical: Level 3 — 25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability
3.2.22 Hazard Profiles Summary
Table 3.32 summarizes the results of the hazard profiles and how each hazard varies by jurisdiction. Of moderate and high ranked hazards, dam and levee failure, flood, hazardous materials, utility infrastructure, wildfire, extreme heat, land subsidence and sinkhole, and tornado hazards vary uniquely across the planning area. This assessment was used by the HMPC to prioritize those hazards of greatest significance to the planning area, enabling the County to focus resources where they are most needed. Those hazards that occur infrequently, or have little or no impact on the planning area, were determined to be of low significance. Those hazards determined to be of high significance were characterized as priority hazards that required further evaluation in Section 3.3 Vulnerability Assessment.
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Table 3.32 Planning Significance of Identified Hazard by Jurisdiction
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a i g y e e h h h h i e n i r t y l l V n f e e o g o n c c c c i t t k v v l r i b h t h t t t v v r l l n i n l k a e c e i b r u a u i u a u u r u r a l r y a a e
A A B H H L N P P P S W B F H H H A H D R
Hazards
Agricultural M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Infestation Dam and L L L L L H L L L L L L H L L L H H L H H Levee Failure Drought L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L
Disease M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Outbreak Earthquake L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L Expansive L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L Soils Extreme M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M H M M Heat Flood H M H H H H M H M M M M H H H H H H M H H
Fog L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L Hailstorm M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M
Hazardous H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H M M M Materials Land Sub M M M M H M M M M M M M M M M M H H L H M Sinkhole Landslide L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L
Lightning L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L
Soil Erosion L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L and Dust Tornado H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H M
Utility Failure H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H L
Wildfire M L M L L H M M L M L L L M M M H H M L L Windstorm M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M
Winter Storm H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H
Source: HMPC, H-High, M-Moderate, L-Low
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3.3 Vulnerability Assessment
Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii) :[The risk assessment shall include a] description of the jurisdiction’s vulnerability to the hazards described in paragraph (c)(2)(i) of this section. This description shall include an overall summary of each hazard and its impact on the community.
Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii)(A) :The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of the types and numbers of existing and future buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities located in the identified hazard areas.
Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii)(B) :[The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of an] estimate of the potential dollar losses to vulnerable structures identified in paragraph (c)(2)(i)(A) of this section and a description of the methodology used to prepare the estimate.
Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii)(C): [The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of] providing a general description of land uses and development trends within the community so that mitigation options can be considered in future land use decisions.
3.3.1 Methodology
The vulnerability assessment further defines and quantifies populations, buildings, critical facilities, and other community assets at risk from natural hazards. The vulnerability assessment for this plan followed the methodology described in the FEMA publication Understanding Your Risks—Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses (2002).
The vulnerability assessment was conducted based on the best available data and the overall planning significance of the hazard. Data to support the vulnerability assessment was collected from the same sources identified in Section 3.1, Hazard Identification, and Section 3.2, Hazard Profiles, and from FEMA’s HAZUS-MH MR3 loss estimation software.
The vulnerability assessment is divided into four parts:
• Section 3.3.2 Community Assets first describes the assets at risk in Reno County, including the total exposure of people and property; critical facilities and infrastructure; natural, cultural, and historic resources; and economic assets. • Section 3.3.3 Vulnerability by Hazard describes the vulnerability to each hazard identified in section 3.1 and profiled in section 3.2. This vulnerability analysis includes a vulnerability overview for each hazard. For hazards of high and moderate significance, the vulnerability analysis includes evaluation of vulnerable buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities; estimated losses and a discussion of the methodology used to estimate losses. • Section 3.3.4 Future Land Use and Development discusses development trends, including population growth, housing demand, and land use patterns and an analysis in relation to hazard-prone areas.
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3.3.2 Community Assets
This section assesses the population, structures, critical facilities and infrastructure, and other important assets in Reno County that may be at risk to natural hazards.
Total Exposure of Population and Structures
Table 3.33 shows the total population, number of structures, and assessed value of improvements to parcels by jurisdiction. Land values have been purposely excluded because land remains following disasters, and subsequent market devaluations are frequently short term and difficult to quantify. Additionally, state and federal disaster assistance programs generally do not address loss of land or its associated value. The greatest exposure of people and property is concentrated in the City of Hutchinson, though significant population and structures are spread out in the unincorporated areas of the County.
Table 3.33 Maximum Population and Building Exposure by Jurisdiction
Population Building Building Contents Total Exposure Community 2007 Count Exposure ($) Exposure ($) Value ($) Abbyville 124 67 6,437,000 3,554,000 9,991,000 Arlington 433 385 24,781,000 16,594,000 41,375,000 Buhler 1,325 798 90,020,000 57,748,000 147,768,000 Haven 1,161 746 73,783,000 46,780,000 120,563,000 Hutchinson 40,668 18,943 2,577,873,000 1,732,524,000 4,310,397,000 Langdon 71 72 3,042,000 1,590,000 4,632,000 Nickerson 1,146 731 59,181,000 34,325,000 93,506,000 Partridge 255 143 13,685,000 8,199,000 21,884,000 Plevna 97 70 6,480,000 3,534,000 10,014,000 Pretty Prairie 594 362 42,076,000 25,144,000 67,220,000 South 2,541 1,466 206,038,000 141,578,000 347,616,000 Hutchinson Sylvia 292 225 13,559,000 8,428,000 21,987,000 Turon 428 280 21,165,000 12,634,000 33,799,000 Willowbrook 87 13 1,563,000 782,000 2,345,000 Unincorporated 13,923 8,718 993,069,000 716,030,000 1,709,099,000 Reno County Totals 63,145 33,019 4,132,752,000 2,809,444,000 6,942,196,000 Sources: Kansas Division of the Budget (population); HAZUS-MH (MR 3) (structures) Note: Incorporated, nonparticipating jurisdictions are the cities of South Hutchinson and Turon
Critical Facilities and Infrastructure
A critical facility may be defined as one that is essential in providing utility or direction either during the response to an emergency or during the recovery operation. Table 3.34 is an inventory of critical facilities in Reno County based on available data from the State of Kansas and from HAZUS-MH MR3, FEMA’s GIS-based loss estimation software.
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Table 3.34 Inventory of Critical Facilities and Infrastructure by Jurisdiction
e y
k i t r n n
o i n
o o
n a o u e e n r r s s n l o o l o g b
P n n i s o
t
i i r a r C d v w d n
a i g y h e n h h e n i r t y l t e o g o n c c t t o k v v l i b h t t u v r l l r n n l e c e i b r u a u i u a l r o y a u e A A B H H L N P P P S H S T W R
Facility
Airports 1 1 Colleges 1 Fire Stations 3 1 1 1 7 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 Health Care 6 2 1 Schools 8 1 2 4 21 2 1 3 1 1 Waste Water Facility 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Correctional Facility 3 Electric 1 1 Elderly Facility 1 6 1 1 2 EMS 1 1 1 1 Critical Bridges 1 1 Source: FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3, HMPC
Figures 3.46 through 3.54 on the following pages show the location of critical facilities, pipelines and infrastructure, and bridges in relation to cities and major highways in Reno County. This includes the Cities of Abbyville, Langdon, Partridge, Pretty Prairie, Sylvia, and Turon that do not have a floodplain in their city limits. The Cities of Arlington, Buhler, Haven, Hutchinson, Nickerson, Plevna, South Hutchinson, and Willowbrook’s maps of critical facilities in relation to the 100-year floodplain are located in the Flood Vulnerability Section of 3.3.3.
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Figure 3.46 Reno County Critical Facilities
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Figure 3.47 Reno County Pipelines and Power Infrastructure
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Figure 3.48 Reno County Bridges
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Figure 3.49 Abbyville Critical Facilities
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Figure 3.50 Langdon Critical Facilities
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Figure 3.51 Partridge Critical Facilities
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Figure 3.52 Pretty Prairie Critical Facilities
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Figure 3.53 Sylvia Critical Facilities
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Figure 3.54 Turon Critical Facilities
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Other Community Assets
Assessing the vulnerability of Reno County to disaster also involves an inventory of natural, historic, cultural, and economic assets located in the planning area. This is important for the following reasons:
• The County may decide that these types of resources warrant a greater degree of protection due to their unique and irreplaceable nature and contribution to the overall economy. • If these resources are impacted by a disaster, knowing about them ahead of time allows for more prudent care in the immediate aftermath, when the potential for additional impacts is higher. • The rules for reconstruction, restoration, rehabilitation, and/or replacement are often different for these types of designated resources. • Natural resources can have beneficial functions that reduce the impacts of natural hazards, such as wetlands and riparian habitat, which help absorb and attenuate floodwaters. • Losses to economic assets (e.g., major employers or primary economic sectors) could have severe impacts on a community and its ability to recover from disaster.
In Reno County, specific assets include the following:
• Natural Resources: There are five threatened species in the County: Arkansas Darter, Bald Eagle, Eastern Spotted Skunk, Piping Plover, and Snowy Plover. There are six endangered species in the County: Arkansas River Shiner, Arkansas River Speckled Chub, Eskimo Curlew, Least Tern, Peregrine Falcon, and Whooping Crane. Species noted in need of conservation include: Black Tern, Curve-billed Thrasher, Eastern Hognose Snake, Ferruginous Hawk, Glossy Snake, Golden Eagle, Long-billed Curlew, and Western Hognose Snake. • Cultural resources: Kansas State Fair Grounds, Convention Center, Kansas Cosmosphere & Space Museum, Kansas Underground Salt Museum, Hutchinson Arts Center, Stringer Fine Arts Center, and the Reno County Museum are important cultural, as well as historic resources for the County. • Historic resources: There are 21 properties on the National Register of Historic Places within Reno County. These properties are identified in Table 3.35. • Economic assets: According to the 2000 Census, the industries that employed the highest percentages of Dickinson County’s labor force were health care, manufacturing and retail services.
Table 3.35 Reno County Properties on the National Register of Historic Places
Property Name Address Location Date Listed Downtown Core North Historic Bounded by BNSF RR tracks, 1st Hutchinson 11/18/2004 District Ave, W side of N. Main & Poplar St
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Property Name Address Location Date Listed Downtown Core South Historic Bounded by C Ave., the alley S of Hutchinson 11/18/2004 District Sherman, Washington, & Poplar Sts Fox Theatre 18 E 1st St Hutchinson 9/07/1989 Graber, John P.O., House 208 E 6th Hutchinson 1/27/1994 Hamlin Block 304-306 S Main Hutchinson 7/02/2008 Houston Whiteside Historic District Bounded by BNSF RR, Pershing, Hutchinson 11/26/2004 Ave. B, & Ave A, Plum & Elm Sts Hutchinson Carnegie Library 427 N. Main Hutchinson 6/25/1987 Building Hutchinson US Post Office 128 E. 1st St Hutchinson 10/17/1989 Kansas Sugar Refining Company 600 E. 1st St Hutchinson 1/03/1985 Mill Kelly Mills 400-414 S Main Hutchinson 4/16/2008 Pactola Building 15-19 Poplar Hutchinson 12/02/1989 Ranson Hotel 4918 E. Main Medora 11/20/2007 Reno County Courthouse 206 W 1st Hutchinson 4/13/1987 Soldiers and Sailors Memorial 1st Ave and Walnut St Hutchinson 5/24/2002 St. Theresa’s Catholic Church 211 E 5th Ave Hutchinson 4/29/1994 Sylvia Rural High School 203 Old Highway 50 Sylvia 11/17/2005 Terminal Station 111 2nd Ave Hutchinson 10/13/1983 Wall-Ratzlaff House 103 N Maple Buhler 4/30/1992 Whiteside, Houston, House 504 E Sherman Hutchinson 8/23/1986 Wolcott, Frank D., House 100 W 20th Ave Hutchinson 5/06/1994 Women’s Civic Center Club 925 N Main Hutchinson 10/29/1998 Source: Kansas State Historical Society, www.kshs.org/resource/national_register/index.php
The HMPC identified nursing homes as vulnerable community assets that should be specifically addressed in emergency management planning.
Community Assets by Jurisdiction
Table 3.36 inventories the community assets identified by each participating jurisdiction. Information was compiled from an asset inventory developed for each jurisdiction by representatives from the HMPC.
Table 3.36 Community Assets by Jurisdiction
Replacement Community/Name of Asset Value ($) Reno County Hutchinson Hospital Reno County Emergency Medical Services 60,000,000 Reno County Courthouse 40,000,000 Meadow View Estates Not Reported Reno County Fire District 8 Station 1 100,000
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Replacement Community/Name of Asset Value ($) Reno County Fire District 3 Station 2 100,000 Reno County Fire District 8 Station 2 100,000 Reno County Health Dept & HHA Not Reported KPL Western Resources Co Not Reported City of Abbyville Reno County Fire Department District 4 Station 2 100,000 City of Arlington Reno County Fire District 4 Station 1 100,000 Water Treatment Facility 400,000 Mandy’s Daycare Not Reported City of Buhler Buhler Ambulance Service 80,000 Reno-Harvey Joint Fire District 2 100,000 Buhler Sunshine Home Not Reported City of Haven Haven Community Emergency Medical Services Not Reported Haven Fire Department Not Reported Drainage District Number 3 - 9 miles of Levee 5,000,000 City of Hutchinson Hutchinson Correctional Facility - Central Unit Not Reported Hutchinson Correctional Facility - East Unit Not Reported Hutchinson Correctional Facility - South Unit Not Reported Hutchinson Municipal Not Reported Elm Grove Estates Not Reported Panorama Lake Not Reported Waldron Place Not Reported Hutchinson Good Samaritan Center Not Reported Infinia at Hutchinson Not Reported Ray E Dillon Living Center Not Reported Wesley Towers Not Reported Golden Plains Health Care Center Not Reported Golden Years Senior Care Home Not Reported Hutchinson Fire Department Station 1 Not Reported Hutchinson Fire Department Station 2 Not Reported Hutchinson Fire Department Station 3 Not Reported Hutchinson Fire Department Station 4 Not Reported Hutchinson Fire Department Station 5 Not Reported Hutchinson Fire Department Station 6 Not Reported Hutchinson Fire Department Station 7 Not Reported Hutchinson Clinic ASC Not Reported Surgery Center Of South Central KS Not Reported Hutchinson Ambulatory Surgery Center LLC Not Reported Hutchinson Clinic Renal Dialysis Center Not Reported Hutchinson Dialysis LLC Not Reported Hutchinson Clinic Not Reported Medical Center PA Not Reported Prairiestar Health Center Inc Not Reported
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Replacement Community/Name of Asset Value ($) Hospice Of Reno County Inc Not Reported Healthsouth Sports Med & Rehab Center Not Reported Care 2000 Home Healthcare Services Of Hutchinson Inc Not Reported Homecare Of Hutchinson Not Reported Care 2000 Homecare Not Reported Wesley Towers HHA Not Reported Hutchinson Hospital SNF Not Reported Hutchinson Hospital Corporation Not Reported City Of Hutchinson Sewage Treatment Plan Not Reported City of Langdon
City of Nickerson Shadowlands Elderly Facility Not Reported Reno County Fire District 3 Station 1 Not Reported Nickerson Waste Water Treatment Plant Not Reported City of South Hutchinson Mennonite Friendship Manor Inc Not Reported South Hutchinson Volunteer Fire Department Not Reported South Hutchinson Medical Center Not Reported Mennonite Friendship HHA Not Reported South Hutchinson City Of Sewage Treatment Plant Not Reported Ark Valley Electric Cooperative Not Reported City of Partridge Reno County Fire District 4 Station 4 Not Reported City Library Not Reported City Hall Not Reported Partridge Cafe Not Reported Paul’s Auto Repair Not Reported Sanitary Sewer System Not Reported Partridge Natural Gas System Not Reported City of Plevna Reno County Fire District 4 Station 3 Not Reported City of Pretty Prairie Reno-Kingman Joint Fire District 1 1,000,000 Pretty Prairie Ambulance Service 300,000 Pretty Prairie Waste Water Treatment Plant 1,200,000 Prairie Sunset Home 4,000,000 City of Sylvia Reno County Fire District 6 - Sylvia Not Reported Sylvia Health Care Clinic Not Reported City Hall Not Reported Water Wells Not Reported Water Tower Not Reported Natural Gas Delivery System Not Reported City of Turon Reno County Fire District 7 Not Reported Turon City Of Waste Water Treatment Plant Not Reported City of Willowbrook Willowbrook City Of Sewage Treatment Plant Not Reported Reno County, Kansas 3.119 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
Source: Reno County HMPC
Special Districts and Community Colleges Participating in Plan Development Based on the available data, Table 3.37 below lists replacement value and capacity information for community assets managed by school districts, community colleges and water districts.
Table 3.37 Community Assets: School Districts and College
Name of Asset Replacement Value ($) Occupancy/ Capacity Unified School District 308 Avenue A Elementary School Not Reported Not Reported Davis Warehouse Not Reported Not Reported Educational Service Center Not Reported Not Reported Faris Elementary School Not Reported Not Reported Graber Elementary School Not Reported Not Reported Lincoln Elementary School Not Reported Not Reported McCandless Elementary School Not Reported Not Reported Morgan Elementary School Not Reported Not Reported Wiley Elementary School Not Reported Not Reported Magnet School at Allen Not Reported Not Reported Hutchinson Center for Early Learning Not Reported Not Reported Hutchinson Elementary Magnet School at Allen Not Reported Not Reported Hutchinson Middle School - 7 Not Reported Not Reported Hutchinson Middle School - 8 Not Reported Not Reported Hutchinson High School Not Reported Not Reported Career & Technical Education Academy Not Reported Not Reported Football Stadium Not Reported Not Reported USD #308 Support Service Center Not Reported Not Reported Unified School District 310 Fairfield East Elementary School Not Reported Not Reported Fairfield West Elementary School Not Reported Not Reported Fairfield Middle School Not Reported Not Reported Fairfield High School Not Reported Not Reported Unified School District 311 Pretty Prairie Grade School Not Reported Not Reported Pretty Prairie Middle School Not Reported Not Reported Pretty Prairie High School 15,000,000 total 400 total Unified School District 312 Partridge Grade School Not Reported Not Reported Mount Hope Grade School Not Reported Not Reported Haven Grade School Not Reported Not Reported Haven Middle School Not Reported Not Reported Haven High School Not Reported Not Reported Pleasantview Academy Not Reported Not Reported
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Name of Asset Replacement Value ($) Occupancy/ Capacity Yoder Charter School Not Reported Not Reported Unified School District 313 Buhler Grade School Not Reported Not Reported Obee Elementary School Not Reported Not Reported Union Valley Elementary School Not Reported Not Reported Prairie Hills Middle School Not Reported Not Reported Buhler High School Not Reported Not Reported Not Reported Not Reported Hutchinson Community College Main Campus -18 buildings Not Reported Not Reported South Campus – 3 buildings Not Reported Not Reported TV Channel 12 building Not Reported Not Reported
3.3.3 Vulnerability by Hazard
To focus on the most critical hazards, those assigned a level of high or moderate planning significance were given more extensive attention in the remainder of this analysis, while those with a low planning significance were addressed in more general or qualitative ways. For those hazards with a high or moderate level, this section provides the following information for each hazard: vulnerability overview, potential losses to existing development, and potential losses to future development. A vulnerability overview is provided for those hazards with a low planning significance. The planning significance levels are provided in Table 3.38 in alphabetical order. These planning significance levels take in to account the entire planning area.
Table 3.38 Planning Significance Results, Listed Alphabetically by Hazard
Warning Planning Hazard Type Probability Magnitude Time Duration CPRI Significance Agricultural Infestation 2 2 1 4 2.05 Moderate Dam Failure 1 1 2 1 1.15 Low Levee Failure 2 3 4 3 2.7 Moderate Disease Outbreak 3 3 1 4 2.8 Moderate Drought 1 1 1 4 1.3 Low Earthquake 1 1 4 1 1.45 Low Expansive Soils 1 1 1 4 1.3 Low Extreme Heat 3 2 1 4 2.5 Moderate Flood 4 3 2 3 3.3 High Fog 1 1 2 1 1.15 Low Hail Storm 4 1 4 1 2.8 Moderate Hazardous Materials 4 2 4 2 3.2 High Land 3 2 1 4 2.5 Moderate Subsidence/Sinkhole Landslide 1 1 1 1 1 Low
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Lightning 2 1 2 1 1.6 Low Soil Erosion / Dust 2 1 1 4 1.75 Low Tornado 4 4 4 1 3.7 High Utility/Infrastructure 4 3 4 3 3.6 High Failure Wildfire 3 2 4 2 2.75 Moderate Wind Storm 4 2 2 2 2.9 Moderate Winter Storm 4 3 2 3 3.3 High Source: Reno County HMPC Agricultural Infestation Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Moderate. 732,000 acres are classified as farm land in Reno County representing 92 percent of the total area. In 2007, the value of crops harvested in Reno County was over $80.8 million and the value of cattle and milk production was over $52 million. A widespread infestation of agricultural products could seriously impact the economic base of the planning area.
Potential Losses to Existing Development Buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities are not vulnerable to this hazard. Rough estimates of potential direct losses fall in a range of 1 to 50 percent of annual crop receipts for the County and/or a 1 to 75 percent of livestock receipts. Based on a worst case scenario where 50 percent of crop production ($40.4 million) and 75 percent of livestock ($39 million) is lost in a given year due to agricultural infestations, the total direct costs could approach $79.4 million.
Insurance paid by USDA’s Risk Management Agency from 2005-2008 for crop losses as a result of agricultural infestation totaled $147,566. This results in an average annual loss of $36,891.50 per year during this four-year period. This annual loss estimate is most likely much lower than the actual losses that occur. However, additional data is not available regarding historical uninsured or unclaimed losses or general reductions in crop and livestock yields.
Future Development Future development is not expected to be significantly impacted Reno County’s vulnerability to this hazard.
Dam and Levee Failure Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Moderate. Dam or levee failure is typically an additional or secondary impact of another disaster such as flooding or earthquake. The impacts to the County and its municipalities from a dam failure would be similar in some cases to those associated with flood events (see the flood hazard vulnerability analysis and discussion). The biggest difference is that a catastrophic dam failure has the potential to result in a much greater loss of life and destruction
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to property and infrastructure due to the potential speed of onset and greater depth, extent, and velocity of flooding. Another difference is that dam failures could flood areas outside of mapped flood hazards.
According to the Kansas Department of Agriculture, Water Structures Program, Reno County has 18 low hazard dams within the County boundaries. Figure 3.x in the Dam Profile Section is a map providing the locations of dams Reno County.
Data from the State of Kansas Data Access and Support Center indicates that there are numerous levees in Reno County. Many of these levees are unregulated, uncertified levees such as agricultural levees and other levees on private land. To narrow the focus for mitigation planning purposes, several sources were consulted to determine the levees that provide significant protection to populations in the County; the online FEMA Levee Inventory System, the FEMA list for flood map modernization, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers spreadsheet data source and commentary from the HMPC to determine where levee planning efforts should be focused. From these sources, two levees were determined to provide protection to significant populations and therefore warranted additional discussion in terms of vulnerability. The two levees are: the Hutchinson Levee Figure 3.55 and the Willowbrook Levee Figure 3.56. Currently, these accredited levees are in the process of having the levees certified by FEMA under the Previously Accredited Levee (PAL) agreement.
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Figure 3.55 Levees in Hutchinson and South Hutchinson
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Figure 3.56 Levee in Willowbrook
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Potential Losses to Existing Development Dams Losses from a dam failure will vary based on the low hazard dam involved, warning time, and time of day, but the potential exists for property and agricultural losses. Impacts to critical facilities would be similar to those identified in the flood vulnerability analysis.
Levees At this time, Reno County does not have a digital flood insurance rate map (DFIRM) that might enable a GIS-based loss estimate for levee failure. However, the loss estimates generated from HAZUS in the flood vulnerability section can be considered inclusive of levee failure losses, as HAZUS did not account for levee protection at Hutchinson or other areas of the County. The generalized descriptions of areas protected by the levees provided below are for planning purposes only and are not meant to provide definitive boundaries of the areas protected by the levees. Table 3.39 shows the estimated losses if the levee were to fail at a 100 year flood event. Table 3.40 shows the structures protected by the Hutchinson Levee. The flood depth (ft) on the table represents the depth at the 100 year flood. The levee in Willowbrook protects the whole City. At the 100 year flood level, the whole town would be flooded.
Table 3.39 Estimated Losses without Levee Protection by Community
Cost Cost Capital Rental Building Contents Inventory Relocation Related Income Wage Total Loss Jurisdiction Damage ($) Damage ($) Loss ($) Loss ($) Loss ($) Loss ($) Loss ($) ($) Hutchinson 153,108,000 302,693,000 15,367,000 807,000 1,227,000 359,000 6,825,000 480,386,000 South 4,731,000 8,886,000 905,000 31,000 31,000 9,000 81,000 14,674,000 Hutchinson Willowbrook 330,000 168,000 - 1,000 - - - 499,000 Source: HAZUS MH MR3
Table 3.40 Structures protected by the Hutchinson Levee
Critical Flood Facility Near City Name Depth (ft) Airport Hutchinson Hutchinson Municipal 2.13 Elderly Facility Hutchinson Hutchinson Good Samaritan Center 2.20 Elderly Facility Hutchinson Infinia at Hutchinson 2.43 Elderly Facility Hutchinson Ray E Dillon Living Center 4.47 Elderly Facility Hutchinson Golden Plains Health Care Center 3.05 Elderly Facility Hutchinson Golden Years Senior Care Home 1.33 Elderly Facility Hutchinson Elm Grove Estates 3.38 Elderly Facility Hutchinson Waldron Place 2.17 EMS Station Hutchinson Hutchinson Hospital Reno County Emergency Medical 2.65 Services Fire Station Hutchinson Hutchinson Fire Department Station 1 6.11
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Critical Flood Facility Near City Name Depth (ft) Fire Station Hutchinson Hutchinson Fire Department Station 3 3.81 Fire Station Hutchinson Hutchinson Fire Department Station 4 1.85 Health Care Hutchinson Hutchinson Clinic ASC 0.90 Health Care Hutchinson Surgery Center of South Central KS 2.15 Health Care Hutchinson Hutchinson Ambulatory Surgery Center LLC 2.22 Health Care Hutchinson Hutchinson Clinic Renal Dialysis Center 2.17 Health Care Hutchinson Hutchinson Dialysis LLC 2.17 Health Care Hutchinson Hutchinson Clinic 0.90 Health Care Hutchinson Prairiestar Health Center Inc 4.40 Health Care Hutchinson Care 2000 Home Healthcare Svcs of Hutchinson Inc 3.61 Health Care Hutchinson Homecare of Hutchinson 2.14 Health Care Hutchinson Reno County Health Dept & HHA 4.71 Health Care Hutchinson Care 2000 Homecare 3.61 Health Care Hutchinson Hutchinson Hospital SNF 2.17 Hospital Hutchinson Hutchinson Hospital Corporation 2.17 School Hutchinson Wiley Elementary 0.01 School Hutchinson Avenue A Elementary 2.85 School Hutchinson Hutchinson Elementary Magnet School at Allen 3.02 School Hutchinson Lincoln Elementary 3.14 Source: HAZUS MH MR3
Future Development Future development in the levee protected areas in Hutchinson, South Hutchinson, and Willowbrook (shaded zone X on the FIRM) or in areas located downstream from dams in floodplains or inundation zones would increase Reno’s vulnerability to this hazard.
Hutchinson and South Hutchinson both have housing unit increases from 1990 to 2000 according to the Housing Units Table 3.48 in Section 3.3.4. If this trend continues and additional structures are built in the levee protected area, additional development would be vulnerable to levee failure.
Disease Outbreak Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Moderate. The capacity of local health care facilities would likely be exceeded if a disease outbreak were to occur. The more densely populated areas of the County are more susceptible to the diseases that are transmitted person to person such as influenza and pandemic influenza. Stagnant pools of water, which can be found in all parts of the county, are breeding grounds for mosquitoes that may carry West Nile virus.
Potential Losses to Existing Development The use of certain community assets such as healthcare facilities could be temporarily impacted by a major disease outbreak, due to the potential need for quarantines or cordoned off areas.
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Future Development Future population growth could increase overall vulnerability to major disease outbreaks by increasing the number of potential carriers.
Drought Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Low. According to the 2007 edition of the Annual Farm Facts Report for Kansas, 732,000 acres in Reno County are used for agricultural purposes, such as pasture for livestock grazing or fields planted with crops. The agricultural economy of Reno County is vulnerable to periods of drought. Drought can also affect the water supply and water quality of communities and water districts in the County. Drought increases the impacts of soil erosion and dust and the risk of wildfire hazards.
Earthquake Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Low. As discussed under the magnitude section of the profile for this hazard (Section 3.2.5), there is less than a 2 percent probability of an earthquake exceeding a peak acceleration of 4 percent gravity in the next 50 years in Reno County. Typically, significant earthquake damage occurs when accelerations are greater than 30 percent of gravity. The Humboldt Fault Zone, which runs through Riley and Pottawatomie counties and extends to the south along the Nemaha Ridge, is the closest seismic zone to Reno County. However, according to the USGS, Reno County would not experience ranges of shaking where notable damage would be experienced.
Expansive Soils Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Low. The HMPC has determined that while the entire planning area is vulnerable to some structure damage as a result of shrinking and expanding soils, there is no data available to determine damage estimates for this hazard. In most cases, individual property owners pay for repairs to damages caused by this hazard. The HMPC observed that underground utility lines such as water and sewer pipes may be at risk to damages associated with expansive soils. However, there is no specific data to support damages and costs associated with this hazard at this time.
Extreme Heat Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Moderate. Health impacts are the primary concern with this hazard, though economic impacts in the agricultural sector are also an issue. The HMPC determined that
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the elderly as well as individuals below the poverty level are the most vulnerable to extreme heat. The County has relatively large populations in both of these categories. Nursing homes and elder care facilities are especially vulnerable to extreme heat events if power outages occur and air conditioning is not available. In addition, individuals below the poverty level may be at increased risk to extreme heat if use of air conditioning is not affordable.
According to data from the Kansas Center for Community Economic Development (KCCED), in 2000 Reno County ranked thirty-first in the state for populations over age 65 with self care limitation, a group with particular vulnerability in extreme heat events. Table 3.41 shows that all jurisdictions in the planning area have a population over 65 that is well above the national average.
Table 3.41 Populations Age 65+
Community Total Population % Age 65 and Over U.S. 281,421,906 12.4 Kansas 2,764,075 13.3 Abbyville 128 12.5 Arlington 459 21.7 Buhler 1,358 20.8 Haven 1,175 15.8 Hutchinson 40,787 16.9 Langdon 72 15.0 Nickerson 1,194 13.1 Partridge 259 15.8 Plevna 99 15.7 Pretty Prairie 615 24.2 South Hutchinson 2,539 25.6 Sylvia 297 20.9 Turon 436 20.6 Willowbrook 75 16.7 County Total* 64,790 16.4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau: 2000 Notes: *County total includes both incorporated and unincorporated areas. **County total poverty data from 2004 Census. The Census Bureau defines the poverty level using a set of money income thresholds that vary by family size and composition
Potential Losses to Existing Development Extreme heat normally does not impact structures and it is difficult to identify specific hazard areas. Heavy trucking can increase wear and tear on roadways during periods of extreme heat though the cost of these impacts is difficult to quantify. Stress on livestock and minor to moderate reductions in crop yields are also typical impacts of extended periods of high temperatures.
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The power generation and transmission facilities and infrastructure are vulnerable to failure during periods of extreme heat due to an increased use of electricity to power air conditioning. Currently there is no data available that estimates direct potential dollar losses as a result of extreme heat events.
Nursing homes and elderly care facilities are especially vulnerable to extreme heat events if power outages occur and air conditioning is not available. There are 11 such facilities in Reno County. The power infrastructure is known to be at risk, but at this time, there is no data available to estimate potential dollar losses as a result of power failure during extreme heat events.
According to the USDA’s Risk Management Agency, claims paid from 2005-2008 as a result of extreme heat in Reno County totaled $686,569. This results in an average annual amount of $171,642.
Future Development A growing population increases the number of people vulnerable to extreme heat events; new development increases the strain on the power grid during extreme heat periods. In general, population and development trends in Reno County are declining and unlikely to increase vulnerability to extreme heat in the short term.
Flood Vulnerability
Vulnerability Overview Planning Significance: High. According to this analysis, the City of Hutchinson and Willowbrook will be hit the hardest by a 100-year flood. However after looking at the current FEMA FIRMs there has been a lot of flood mitigation in these towns to reduce the risk of flooding. According to the FIRMs, Levees have been put in place to channel the majority of flooding away from the populated areas. Due to these Levees being in place the majority of Hutchinson, South Hutchinson and Willowbrook are in the Shaded X Flood Zone or 500-year event. The HAZUS modeling does not take into account the levees and flood bypass channels. Thus the HAZUS flood loss estimation may be more representative of impacts from a 500-year even than the 100-year for these communities. The HAZUS flood loss estimation for the City of Hutchinson, South Hutchinson and Willowbrook is under levee vulnerability. The other cities impacted by the 100 year floodplain are; Arlington, Haven, Nickerson, and Willowbrook each have less than $1,000,000 of total building loss. The towns not affected by the 100 year floodplain are Abbyville, Buhler, Langdon, Partridge, Plevna, Pretty Prairie, Sylvia, and Turon.
Identifying Structures and Estimating Potential Losses Estimated Potential Losses to Existing Development The best available flood data for Reno County was generated by HAZUS-MH MR3, FEMA’s software program for estimating potential losses from disasters. The 100-year floodplain was
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generated for major rivers and creeks with a minimum drainage area of ten square miles in the county. HAZUS-MH produces a flood polygon and flood-depth grid that represents the base flood. While not as accurate as official flood maps, such as digital flood insurance rate maps, these floodplain boundaries are for use in GIS-based loss estimation. Table 3.42 shows the estimated losses by a community due to a 100 year flood event. Figure 3.57 shows the HAZUS estimated building losses from the 100 year flood event for Reno County. Figure 3.58 shows the HAZUS estimated building losses from the 100 year flood event for the Hutchinson area.
Methodology HAZUS-MH provides reports on the number of buildings impacted, estimates of the building repair costs, and the associated loss of building contents and business inventory. Building damage can cause additional losses to a community as a whole by restricting the building’s ability to function properly. Income loss data accounts for business interruption and rental income losses as well as the resources associated with damage repair and job and housing losses. These losses are calculated by HAZUS-MH using a methodology based on the building damage estimates. Flood damage is directly related to the depth of flooding. For example, a two-foot flood generally results in about 20 percent damage to the structure (which translates to 20 percent of the structure’s replacement value). After running the HAZUS analysis, the building inventory loss estimates (which are linked to census block geography) were sorted by fourteen cities in Reno County and the unincorporated county to illustrate how the potential for loss varies across the planning area.
Table 3.42 Estimated Flood Losses by Jurisdiction
Cost Cost Capital Rental Building Contents Inventory Relocation Related Income Wage Total Loss Jurisdiction Damage ($) Damage ($) Loss ($) Loss ($) Loss ($) Loss ($) Loss ($) ($) Abbyville ------Arlington 423,000 266,000 - 1,000 1,000 - - 691,000 Buhler ------Haven 97,000 180,000 2,000 1,000 - - 4,000 284,000 Hutchinson 153,108,000 302,693,000 15,367,000 807,000 1,227,000 359,000 6,825,000 480,386,000 Langdon ------Nickerson 214,000 230,000 9,000 2,000 2,000 - 6,000 463,000 Partridge ------Plevna ------Pretty Prairie ------South 4,731,000 8,886,000 905,000 31,000 31,000 9,000 81,000 14,674,000 Hutchinson Sylvia ------Turon ------Willowbrook 330,000 168,000 - 1,000 - - - 499,000 Unincorporated 18,186,000 27,138,000 4,096,000 60,000 60,000 13,000 277,000 49,830,000 Reno County Total 177,089,000 339,561,000 20,379,000 903,000 1,321,000 381,000 7,193,000 546,827,000 Source: HAZUS-MH MR3
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Limitations Default HAZUS-MH data was used to develop the loss estimates. Thus, the potential losses derived from HAZUS-MH, the best available data, may contain some inaccuracies. The building valuations used in HAZUS-MH MR3 are updated to R.S. Means 2006 and commercial data is updated to Dun & Bradstreet 2006. There could be errors and inadequacies associated with the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of the HAZUS-MH model. The damaged building counts generated by HAZUS-MH are susceptible to rounding errors and are likely the weakest output of the model due to the use of census blocks for analysis.
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Figure 3.57 HAZUS Estimated Building Losses from 100-Year Flood in Reno County
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Figure 3.58 HAZUS Estimated Building Losses from 100-Year Flood in Hutchinson
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Figure 3.59 illustrates the number of residents potentially displaced by a 100-year flood event in different areas of Reno County. Figure 3.60 provides a closer look at potentially displaced residents within the City of Hutchinson.
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Figure 3.59 HAZUS Estimated Population Displaced by 100-Year Flood in Reno County
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Figure 3.60 HAZUS Estimated Population Displaced by 100-Year Flood in Hutchinson
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Critical Facilities and Infrastructure in 100-Year Floodplain
Critical facilities data from the State of Kansas and HAZUS-MH was used along with the floodplain generated by HAZUS-MH to identify critical facilities and infrastructure located in flood hazard areas. Digital locations of water treatment facilities were not available.
Figure 3.61 shows the locations of critical facilities and infrastructure and the HAZUS generated 100-year floodplain in Reno County. Figures 3.62 to 3.69 show individual maps of critical facilities and any flood hazard areas in each of the participating jurisdictions. Figure 3.60 shows the pipeline and power line intersections with the floodplain.
Included with HAZUS-MH, is a database of bridges called the National Bridge Inventory developed by the Federal Highway Administration. It includes a scour index used to quantify the vulnerability of a bridge to scour during a flood. Bridges with a scour index between one and three are considered “scour critical,” or a bridge with a foundation element determined to be unstable for the observed or evaluated scour condition. There are two scour critical bridges in Reno County; one is on the western city boundary of Hutchinson on Nickerson Blvd, and the other is located within the east part of Arlington on State Highway 61.
There are 34 critical facilities in Reno County that fall in the HAZUS 100-year floodplain. All of the flooded facilities are within the city limits of Hutchinson except for four wastewater treatments facilities on that are located next to other towns within Reno County. Based on the FIRMs, the 30 critical facilities in the City of Hutchinson are levee protected, so they are susceptible to the 500-year even and not the 100-year. The 30 critical facilities are listed on under levee vulnerability.
Table 3.43 Critical Facilities in the 100-Year Floodplain in Reno County
Flood Critical Facility Near City Name Depth (ft) Waste Water Facility Buhler Buhler WWTF 7.71 Waste Water Facility Haven Haven City of WWTP 1.74 Waste Water Facility Hutchinson City of Hutchinson Sewage Treatment Plan 3.59 Waste Water Facility Nickerson Nickerson WWTP 2.40 Waste Water Facility Willowbrook Willowbrook City of STP 4.88
Source: (HAZUS-MH)
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Figure 3.60 Pipelines and Electric Lines in HAZUS 100-Year Floodplain in Reno County
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Figure 3.61 Critical Facilities in the HAZUS 100-Year Floodplain in Reno County
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Figure 3.62 Critical Facilities in the HAZUS 100-Year Floodplain in Hutchinson
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Figure 3.63 Critical Facilities in the HAZUS 100-Year Floodplain in South Hutchinson
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Figure 3.64 Critical Facilities in the HAZUS 100-Year Floodplain in Arlington
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Figure 3.65 Critical Facilities in the HAZUS 100-Year Floodplain in Buhler
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Figure 3.66 Critical Facilities in the HAZUS 100-Year Floodplain in Haven
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Figure 3.67 Critical Facilities in the HAZUS 100-Year Floodplain in Nickerson
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Figure 3.68 Critical Facilities in the HAZUS 100-Year Floodplain in Plevna
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Figure 3.69 Critical Facilities in the HAZUS 100-Year Floodplain in Willowbrook
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National Flood Insurance Program and Repetitive Flood Loss Properties Table 3.44 details the NFIP participation status, effective Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) and insurance statistics for the jurisdictions participating in the NFIP. Each of these jurisdictions has addressed continued participation in the National Flood Insurance Program in the next chapter, Mitigation Strategy. Abbyville, Langdon, Sylvia and Plevna do not participate in the NFIP. However, the City of Sylvia is considering joining the program since a portion of the City has been identified in the 1-percent annual chance floodplain.
Table 3.44 Participation in the National Flood Insurance Program in Reno County
Effective Policies Insurance Number Claims Jurisdiction Date Joined Map Date in Force in Force ($) of Claims Totals ($) Arlington 9/26/1975 9/28/1990 1 67,500 0 0 Haven 01/08/2008 7/19/2000 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 6/28/1974 9/5/1978 75 42,414 6 55,557 Nickerson 3/8/1974 1/3/1979 64 30,454,000 7 26,347 Partridge 12/17/1976 0 0 0 0 Pretty Prairie 8/13/1976 9/28/1990 22 14,663 1 3,893
South 7/25/1975 9/28/1990 11 9,006 1 11,059 Hutchinson Turon 5/9/1988 9/28/1990 0 0 0 0 Willowbrook 12/13/1974 8/1/1986 2 700,000 0 0 Reno County 8/16/1977 9/23/1990 169 18,345,700 22 348,503 Unincorporated Totals 344 49,633,283 37 445,359 E= Emergency Program; R=Regular Program Source: National Flood Insurance Program
There is one repetitive loss property in the City of Nickerson. The property has had a combined three losses (1 in 1995 and 2 in 1993) with total payments of $21,914 and a combined average payment per event of $7,305. The property has not been mitigated, and the homeowner has not built anything so no floodplain permits have been issued. There are no severe repetitive loss properties in Reno County or any of the jurisdictions.
Future Development The risk of flooding to future development in Reno County should be minimized by the floodplain management programs of the County and the cities of Arlington, Hutchinson, Nickerson, Partridge, Pretty Prairie, South Hutchinson, Turon, and Willowbrook if properly enforced. Risk to new development could be further reduced by strengthening floodplain ordinances beyond minimum NFIP requirements.
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Fog Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Low. Fog is primarily a threat to public safety. Of particular concern is the potential for multi-vehicle accidents involving farming equipment . These accidents can cause injuries and deaths and can have serious implications for health, safety, and environment if a hazardous shipment is involved. Other disruptions from fog include delayed emergency response vehicle travel.
Although fog does occur in the planning area on an annual basis, damages directly related to the fog conditions are sporadic and largely difficult identify direct linkage to fog as the cause. Therefore, is has been determined that occurrence of damage as a result of fog is unlikely in any given year.
Hailstorm Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Moderate. In general, assets in the planning area that are vulnerable to hail damage include crops, livestock, vehicles, people, and built structures. Of these, crop damage is the most common. Moderate to large size hail can devastate crops that are at vulnerable stages in the growth/harvest cycle. Injuries to humans and livestock can occur if shelter is not available during a severe hail event.
Potential Losses to Existing Development Vehicular damage is a common impact, ranging from minor cosmetic impacts to moderate body damage. For structures; roof damage, damages to siding and windows occurs frequently with hail damage and is usually covered under private insurance. Accurate data regarding cost of hail damage in Reno County is not available.
Rough estimates of the total vulnerability of agricultural production to hailstorms fall in a range of 1 to 5 percent of annual crop receipts for the County. In 2007, the value of crops harvested in Reno County was $80,818,700 (Kansas Agricultural Statistics, 2007-2008). Based on a worst case scenario where 5 percent of crop production is lost in a given year due to hailstorm, the damages could be $4,040,935
According to USDA’s Risk Management Agency crop insurance claims for hail damages for the period from 2005-2008 totaled $1,406,795. This results in an average annual amount of $351,699. This estimate is very low, as not all farmers carry crop insurance and even those that do not always make a claim. Therefore, it is considered that the 5 percent loss method described is more reflective of actual losses that could occur.
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Future Development Current development trends for Reno County are unlikely to substantively increase or decrease vulnerability to hailstorms.
Hazardous Materials Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance:High. Everyday, hundreds of trucks with chemical tanks traverse the County on the hundreds of city and county streets and on the highways. Everyday, dozens of chemical cargos cross the county on the railroads. These trucks and railcars constitute potential hazards on wheels. During an accidental release of toxic chemicals or other emergencies where air quality is threatened, the toxics heavier than air settle on the ground and the people in proximity can breathe these toxics and be affected; the toxics lighter than air spread for several miles and impact distant people.
Potential Losses to Existing Development The use of community assets could be temporarily impacted by a hazardous materials spill. The magnitude will vary with the level of damage.
Future Development Current development trends for Reno County are likely to stay steady with the vulnerability to storage facilities and transportation hazard materials spills.
Land Subsidence/Sinkhole Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Moderate. In general, people and built structures in the planning area are vulnerable to land subsidence and sinkholes because it is not know where all the abandoned mines are located in the County. It is estimated by the Kansas Department of Health & Environment that there is estimated to be 97,609 acres of subsurface void space undermined in Reno County.
Potential Losses to Existing Development According to the Subsurface Void space and Sinkhole/Subsidence Area Inventory for the State of Kansas, nearly all of the sinkholes and subsidence areas develop slowly over a number of years and can create a shallow surface depression. Structures located over or near the subsidence areas are generally severely damaged or destroyed. At date, no sinkholes have developed over structures in Reno County, only open spaces and near roads.
Thus, existing development in the planning area is susceptible to subsidence and individuals should report any areas of land depression to the City and/or County authorities.
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Future Development As new development occurs in Reno County it will be susceptible to subsidence and sinkholes. The subsidence of sinkholes in Reno County has been occurring for millions of years and it will continue in the area for many more years. The rate of subsidence varies across the planning area based on the deformation in the salt and the strength of rocks directly above the salt layer.
Landslide Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance:Low. Landslides have historically not occurred in Reno County mainly because of the flat terrain. According to the Kansas Geological Survey, Reno County is in a low landslide risk area of Kansas and has less than a 1.5 percent chance of a landslide.
Lightning Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Moderate. National Weather Service data indicates that Reno County is in a region that receives four to eight lightning strikes per square kilometer per year. However, most of these lightning strikes do not result in damages. The NCDC reports one injury and no fatalities resulting from lightning strikes from 1993-2007, but it is nonetheless a significant public safety hazard. Most damages occur to electronic equipment located inside buildings. Communications equipment and warning transmitters and receivers could be knocked out by lightning strikes.
Potential Losses to Existing Development Existing development in exposed locations and high elevation relative to its surroundings are the most vulnerable structures. There have been seven notable lightning events reported in Reno County since 1994, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The total property damage reported is approximately $146,000. This translates to an average annual damage estimate of nearly $10,429. This estimate is likely very low as many damaging lightning events are not reported and handled by individual property owners.
Future Development Current development trends for Reno County are unlikely to substantively increase or decrease vulnerability to lightning.
Soil Erosion Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Low. Assets with the highest vulnerability to soil erosion are agricultural lands, bridges and roads. Impacts of erosion on agricultural lands are primarily economic and environmental. The vulnerability of bridges and roads to erosion is discussed under vulnerability Reno County, Kansas 3.152 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
as a result of flood hazard since the main cause of damaging erosion to these structures is flood waters rushing past and washing out the soil and/or undermining structural supports
Tornado Vulnerability
Vulnerability Overview Reno County is located in a region of the United States vulnerable to frequent and severe tornadoes. There were 17 injuries and $60.4 million in damage are attributed to past tornado events in the Reno County from 1954-2008. This results in an average annual loss of over $1 million. All above ground buildings and critical facilities and infrastructure are at risk to damage. Warning time for tornadoes is relatively short. Children, the elderly and disabled persons are particularly vulnerable to such hazards with rapid onset.
There is an identified need for additional storm shelters in Reno County that can withstand the force of a major tornado and to protect the safety of residents.
Potential Losses to Existing Development The NCDC database states there were 67 damaging tornadoes in Reno County from 1954-2008 causing $60.4 million in property damage. The annualized property damage is $1,118,519.
While the above annualized property damage due to tornado hazard is based on historical events, the following describes the effort to determine vulnerability in term of a worst-case scenario event. The HMPC considered the impacts of the EF5 tornado that struck Greensburg, Kansas, in May of 2007 and the EF5 tornado that traveled thru Reno County in March 1990. The tornado in Greensburg was 1.7 miles in width and traveled 22 miles. It destroyed 95 percent of all structures and severely damaged the remaining 5 percent. In comparison, the Reno County EF5 tornado was .75 miles in width and traveled 21 miles on the ground before crossing into Harvey County. Greensburg had a population of approximately 1,500 across a 1.5 square mile city area. If the tornado in Reno County would have struck a similarily populated area the damage would have been comparible to the Greensburg tornado. But if it would have struck a heavily populated area,like Hutchinson, the damage would have been much more significant than the damage done in Greensburg. A scenario similar to that of Greensburg in could result in excess of $180 million in structural losses as seen in Table 3.45 below.
If a tornado as large and violent as the one that hit Greensburg directly impacted one of Reno County’s cities, it is conceivable that a similar level of destruction could occur in the swath of the storm. Table 3.x estimates potential losses for a hypothetical EF5 event by calculating a 95 percent loss of structure value across a damage area similar in size to the Greensburg tornado.
For cities that are smaller than the City of Greensburg, damage to 100 percent the city’s area was assumed. The cities of Hutchinson and South Hutchinson that are larger than Greensburg would expect to have only a percentage of their structures impacted. Damaged area was calculated by dividing the impacted area of Greensburg (1.5 square miles) by the area of each jurisdiction. For Reno County, Kansas 3.153 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
cities with areas less than or equal to the City of Greensburg, impact to 100 percent of the city area was assumed. This analysis indicates that a scenario similar to that of Greensburg in any one of the participating jurisdictions could result in damages totaling in the millions for even the smallest communities. This damage estimate does not include losses to building contents or infrastructure.
Table 3.45 Potential Property Losses from EF5 by Jurisdiction
City Area Building City Area Damaged Buildings Estimated Community (sq. miles) Count (EF5-Direct Hit) Damaged Loss ($) Abbyville .19 67 100% 67 6,437,000 Arlington 1.20 385 100% 385 24,781,000 Buhler .59 798 100% 798 90,020,000 Haven .55 746 100% 746 73,783,000 Hutchinson 21.2 18,943 7% 1,326 180,451,110 Langdon .13 72 100% 72 3,042,000 Nickerson 1.35 731 100% 731 59,181,000 Partridge .47 143 100% 143 13,685,000 Plevna .23 70 100% 70 6,480,000 Pretty Prairie .51 362 100% 362 42,076,000 South 2.78 1,466 54% 792 111,260,520 Hutchinson Sylvia .29 225 100% 225 13,559,000 Turon .46 280 100% 280 21,165,000 Willowbrook .31 13 100% 13 1,563,000 Source: Inventory data FEMA HAZUS MH-3; data analysis AMEC Earth & Environmental
Future Development Due to the mixture of population growth and decline in the region, development trends are not anticipated to increase vulnerability to tornadoes. Future residential or commercial buildings built to code should be less vulnerable to high winds associated with tornadoes, but building standards can offer only limited protection. Unincorporated areas of the County do not have building codes, but new development there is limited.
Utility/Infrastructure Failure Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Moderate. Utilities and infrastructure are vulnerable to damage from many natural hazards. Public safety and economic impacts are the primary concerns with this hazard.
Power and telephone lines are the most vulnerable infrastructure asset; but water supply, wastewater facilities and communications towers are also vulnerable. Typically the events that cause the most damages are flood, lightning, winter storm, tornado, and wind storm. The
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electrical grid is vulnerable in periods of extreme heat when air conditioning use peaks. Underground utilities can also be damaged by expansive soils, erosion and intentional or unintentional human actions.
Potential Losses to Existing Development By definition, this hazard includes all infrastructure and critical facilities that could be impacted by one or more hazard events. Electrical blackouts and power surges can damage high tech equipment but generally causes no structural damage.
Potential losses would include cost of repair or replacement of damaged facilities, lost economic opportunities for businesses. Secondary effects of infrastructure failure could include burst water pipes in homes without electricity during winter storms and damage to equipment due to power surges in the electrical grid during blackouts. Public safety hazards include risk of electrocution from downed power lines and hazard events that affect the normal functioning of wastewater facilities.
Specific amounts of estimated losses are not available due to the complexity and multiple variables associated with this hazard. Loss of use estimates from the FEMA Guidance on Benefit Cost Analysis of Hazard Mitigation Projects document have been utilized to provide estimates of potential losses as a result of loss of electric, water and wastewater utilities. Table 3.46 provides these estimates in relation to the populations served in Reno County. The loss of use for each utility is provided in the heading as the loss of use cost per person per day of loss. The estimated loss of use provided for each jurisdiction in Reno County represents the loss of service of the indicated utility for one day. These figures do not take into account physical damages to utility equipment and infrastructure. This loss estimation methodology does not take in to account the portion of population that does not utilize public utilities such as rural areas that use well water and home-site septic systems.
Table 3.46 Estimated Costs for Single Day Loss of Use of Electric, Water and Wastewater Utilities
Wastewater Wastewater Treatment Treatment (complete Population Electric Drinking Water Potable Water (partial loss) loss) City Name in 2007 ($188) ($43) ($103) ($8.50) ($33.50) Abbyville 124 23,312 5,332 12,772 1,054 4,154
Arlington 433 81,404 18,619 44,599 3,681 14,506
Buhler 1,325 249,100 56,975 136,475 11,263 44,388
Haven 1,161 218,268 49,923 119,583 9,869 38,894
Hutchinson 40,668 7,645,584 1,748,724 4,188,804 345,678 1,362,378
Langdon 71 13,348 3,053 7,313 604 2,379
Nickerson 1,146 215,448 49,278 118,038 9,741 38,391
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Partridge 255 47,940 10,965 26,265 2,168 8,543
Plevna 97 18,236 4,171 9,991 825 3,250
Pretty Prairie 594 18,236 25,542 61,182 5,049 19,899
South 2,541 477,708 109,263 261,723 21,599 85,124 Hutchinson Sylvia 292 54,896 12,556 30,076 2,482 9,782
Turon 428 80,464 18,404 44,084 3,638 14,338
Willowbrook 87 16,356 3,741 8,961 740 2,915
Unincorporated 13,923 2,617,524 598,689 1,434,069 118,346 466,421
Total 63,145 9,039,288 2,715,235 6,503,935 536,733 2,115,358
Future Development Future development can increase vulnerability to this hazard by placing additional strains on existing infrastructure and by increasing the size and thus the exposure of infrastructure networks, but currently there are few areas of population increase in Reno County.
Wildfire Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: Moderate. Based on wildfire information from Kansas incident Fire Reporting system (KIFRS), this hazard is a serious public safety issue. One injury and one fatality occurred during the period 2003-2006 in Reno County.
The Kansas Forest Service conducted a Community Wildfire Hazard Assessment Report for Reno County in January 2009. The full wildfire assessment is in Appendix D. The City of Hutchinson has a high Wildfire Hazard Rating and Table 3.47 shows the other cities ratings.
Table 3.47 Wildfire Hazard Ratings
Jurisdiction Hazard Rating Jurisdiction Hazard Rating Abbyville Moderate Plevna Low Arlington Moderate Pretty Prairie Low Buhler Low South Low Hutchinson Haven Low Sylvia Low Hutchinson High Turon Low Langdon Moderate Willowbrook Low Nickerson Moderate Unincorporated High Partridge Low Source: Kansas Forest Service
Potential Losses to Existing Development Homes built in rural areas are more vulnerable since homeowners are more likely to burn trash and debris in rural locations. The vulnerability of structures in rural areas is exacerbated due to Reno County, Kansas 3.156 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
the lack of hydrants in these areas for firefighting and the distance required for firefighting vehicles and personnel to travel to respond. In addition, structures along the wildland urban interface where wild fuel loads are in close proximity to structures are at increased risk.
Utilizing the data available from the Kansas Fire Incident Reporting System for the 4-year period from 2003-3006, estimated damages totaled $2,374,395. If wildfires continue at a similar rate, the annual losses to this hazard are estimated to be $593,599.
Future Development As new development encroaches into the wildland-urban interface (areas where development occurs within or immediately adjacent to wildlands, near fire-prone trees, brush, and/or other vegetation), more structures and people are at risk. Neither the County nor participating jurisdictions have any policies in place to address new development in the wildland-urban interface. However, growth and development trends are very low.
Windstorm Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: High. Windstorm is primarily a public safety and economic concern, and Reno County is located in a region with very high frequency of occurrence. Windstorm can cause damage and to structures and power lines which in turn can create hazardous conditions for people. Debris flying from high wind events can shatter windows in structures and vehicles and can harm people that are not adequately sheltered.
Potential Losses to Existing Development Windstorms can affect the entire planning area, including all above-ground structures and utilities. NCDC data indicates Reno County has experienced over $17 million in thunderstorm and high wind damages from 1993-2008. This estimate is considered to be low as only a fraction of actual damages are reported. During this 15 year period, the reported losses average out to $1.4 million per year. This is likely a minimum estimate of the level of loss experienced each year, and wind losses area expected to continue on an annual basis in the planning area.
Future Development Future residential or commercial buildings built to code should be able to withstand windstorms. Unincorporated areas of the County are not currently regulated by building codes, but development in these locations is on a limited scale.
Winter Storm Vulnerability
Overview Planning Significance: High. The entire planning area is vulnerable to the effects of winter storms. Transportation networks, communications, and utilities infrastructure are the most Reno County, Kansas 3.157 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
vulnerable physical assets in the planning area. The most significant damage during winter storms often occurs when freezing rain and drizzle accumulate on utility poles and power lines causing widespread power outages. During heavy snow and ice events, the threat to public safety is also a primary concern. Lower income and elderly populations may be more at risk in cases of power outages during winter storms. Roads and bridges covered with snow and ice make travel treacherous and slow emergency vehicles. Agriculture and livestock are also vulnerable to extreme cold temperatures and heavy snow.
Potential Losses to Existing Development Overhead utilities are extremely vulnerable to winter storm impacts as well as buildings with overhanging tree limbs. Businesses experience loss of income as a result of closure during power outages. In general heavy winter storms increase wear and tear on roadways though the cost of such damages is difficult to determine. Businesses can experience loss of income as a result of closure during winter storms.
Reno County has been included in three Presidential Disaster Declaration for winter storms in the past five years (January 2005, December 2007, and March 2009) and the County has received over $3.1 million in FEMA Public Assistance. It is anticipated that in a similar event, this level of damages will continue to occur. It should be noted that this amount does not take in to consideration damages incurred by private electric providers, private businesses or other expenses non-reimbursable by FEMA or other damages that may have been covered by private insurance.
Future Development Future development could potentially increase vulnerability to this hazard by increasing demand on the utilities and increasing the exposure of infrastructure networks.
3.3.4 Land Use and Development Trends
For the most part, Reno County is experiencing minor population growth. Table 3.48 provides information on changes in population and housing units in the planning area. According to the Kansas Department of the Budget, the 2007 population of Reno County was 63,145. This is an increase of 2.6 percent from the 2000 census population and a one percent increase from 1990. Since 1990, most of the County experienced decreases in population except for Buhler, Hutchinson, Langdon, Nickerson, Partridge, South Hutchinson and Turon increased.
Overall, population in Reno County is not growing; however development may still be taking place in hazardous areas. Flood hazard areas and the wildland-urban interface are of specific concern. New residential construction continues to occur in rural areas with limited access to services, including emergency services. Table 3.48 shows the population growth from 2000 to 2007 for Reno County.
Reno County, Kansas 3.158 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
Table 3.48 Reno County Population and Housing Units
n n n
g g o o o
i i i n n t t t e e 7 0 i i a a a 0 0 g g
s s l l l 0 0 s s n n u u u u u t t 2 2 a a i i o o p p p - - h h n n o o o 0 0 H H
C C U U 9 9 P P P
0 0
9 9 % 9 0 0 0 7 1 1 % 9 0 9 0 0 1 2 9 0 0
Location 1 2 2 United States 248,709,873 281,421,906 301,621,157 21 102,263,678 115,904,641 13 Kansas 2,477,574 2,688,418 2,775,977 12 1,044,112 1,131,200 8 Abbyville 140 128 124 -11 55 51 -7 Arlington 457 459 433 -5 236 218 -8 Buhler 1,277 1,358 1,325 4 488 521 7 Haven 1,198 1,175 1,161 -3 479 498 4 Hutchinson 39,308 40,787 40,668 3 17,163 17,693 3 Langdon 62 72 71 15 37 39 5 Nickerson 1,137 1,194 1,146 1 470 507 8 Partridge 213 259 255 20 102 106 4 Plevna 117 99 97 -17 53 52 -1 Pretty Prairie 601 615 594 -1 277 290 5 South 2,444 2,539 2,541 4 1,117 1,210 8 Hutchinson Sylvia 308 297 292 -5 156 142 -9 Turon 393 436 428 9 220 218 -1 Willowbrook 95 75 87 -8 37 37 0 Total in 62,389 64,790 63,145 1 26,607 27,625 4 County Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Kansas Department on the Budget
After only a one percent increase in population for the period 1990-2007, population projections for Reno County developed by the Kansas Division of the Budget indicate an overall decrease in population for the period 2008-2027. As seen in table 3.49 the projected population in 2027 represents a 8.14 percent decrease from 2008.
Table 3.49 Reno County Population Projections 2008-2027
Projected Change from Year Population Previous Period 2008 59,087 2009 58,460 -627 2011 57,364 -1,096 2013 56,506 -858 2015 55,877 -629 2017 55,433 -444 2019 55,115 -318 2021 54,847 -268 2023 54,625 -222 2025 54,455 -170 2027 54,276 -179 Source: Kansas Division of the Budget, http://budget.ks.gov/files/FY2006/Kansas_Population_Projections_through_2027.xls
Reno County, Kansas 3.159 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT
Reno County, Kansas 3.160 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan FINAL DRAFT