POLITICAL CLIMATE REPORT

worsening economic crisis and unified opposition means it faces an uphill battle. an uphill it faces means opposition unified and crisis economic worsening the of context the although campaigning, on efforts refocus can government urgencies. post theimmediate In Macri re (see below). weeks recent of developments economic the by further task complicated base, a voter his expand to seek and support front his jeopardize seriously that mistakes now. until profiles lower maintain to incentives volatility economic post with the combined elections primary 11 August in the candidates lateSeptember. in earnest in campaigning ( Macri Mauricio President incumbent and Fernández both 7, on September began officially elections 27 away. a month than n are elections and legislative presidential National Campaigning re coalition his support among up shoring and management economic Macri’s criticizing on is focusing the remains who Fernández Meanwhile, businesses. small and crisis on individuals economic the of theimpact easing at aimed efforts well as as voters fire up to country the across of marches series a announced has are Fernández Alberto challenger primary and Macri both elections, legislative and presidential national to go to a month than less with However, hit. hardest the to help measures implement to government the poverty pushing in con economic The flight. capital prevent to and peso the stabilize and try to controls, exchange foreign including opposed, previously it measures introduced government Macri’s Mauricio President urgencies. economic to backseat that meaning uncertainty by economic dominated were elections primary August the following The weeks 1 October Political Climate Report República República (C1 Ciudad de Autónoma 950 Esmeralda Torre Bellini 3204 233 +1 (646) (11)+54 0991 5238 www.cefeidas.com [email protected] CONTACT INFORMATION 007 A BL )

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On September 20, President Macri re- importance that economic issues launched his electoral campaign with a played in voters’ decisions in the

Twitter post in which he announced the “Sí primaries (see August PCR for ARGENTINA

se puede” (“Yes, we can”) marches, a series background). In a video released following – of 30 marches planned to take place across the first march, Macri speaks to voters,

PCR PCR 30 cities in the lead up to the election, saying he has listened and knows that they which began on Saturday, September 28 in have had to make too many sacrifices. He Buenos Aires City. The optimistic tone of says he will take measures to improve their

the marches aims to fight the feeling situation in the short-term and that, with inevitable loss that surrounds Macri’s the hard adjustment out of the way, a reelection (polls show that most voters second term would bring growth and believe that he either can’t or won’t win, employment. Concretely, on Monday, and that Fernández will be the next September 30, the government announced president). The president has said that changes aimed at promoting formalization these marches are aimed at winning and and generating new employment. Payroll urged his supporters to “march to win.” The taxes that SMEs pay on any new employees marches suggest a recognition of the will be completely eliminated for one year, importance of a territoriality-grounded followed by a 50 percent reduction the campaign in addition to the well- following year; it simultaneously organized social media campaign run announced changes that would reduce by Juntos por el Cambio (see July PCR for indemnification payments for workers background). The series of marches disabled or killed in workplace accidents. additionally seeks to build on the The economic and electoral impact of enthusiasm generated among Macri’s base the measures will likely be limited. at the march of support outside the Casa Rosada (see August PCR for background) This follows measures implemented that followed the president’s loss in the immediately following the primaries, primaries. including various tax refunds, increases in social protection programs, a one-time The marches are more likely to excite bonus for national public-sector employees, Macri’s base and prevent voter loss and an increase in the minimum wage (see than to pick up new voters or propel August PCR for background) as well as Macri to re-election. Macri’s campaign mandating a one-time bonus for private- has not been able to shift from a largely sector workers (see below). On October 1, value/identity-based approach to more the Supreme Court dealt the national substantive issues and continues to largely government a blow when it voted 3-1 focus on messages that resonate most with that two of those measures—suspension its base (particularly anti-corruption and of VAT and income taxes—cannot affect anti-narcotrafficking efforts). As we have resources sent to provinces through said before (see August PCR for the financial redistribution system background), we believe a shift in strategy known as coparticipation. This means would be necessary to improve on the the national government will have to government’s performance in the primary assume the cost of these tax breaks with its elections. Nevertheless, good turnout at own resources. the marches would show that there is still a mass of people that support the Fernández follows primary performance government and counteract a sense of with international tour defeat that could keep Macri voters from showing up at the polls. Immediately following the primaries, Alberto Fernández largely maintained The Macri government is also taking a strategic silence despite efforts from care to show voters that it is working the government to involve him in the to help them in recognition of the public discussions around the

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reprofiling of debt. The few comments he did make were brief and did not express a Macri ally wins re-election in Mendoza, clear position on the issue (for example breaking streak of losses in local

ARGENTINA elections stating to that the – country was in a “virtual default”.) This is in On September 29, Mendoza held its highly- anticipated provincial election in which current

PCR PCR line with attempting to ensure that Macri bears the political cost of the current Governor Alfredo Cornejo’s chosen successor, Mendoza Capital Mayor Rody Suárez (Cambia economic situation (see August PCR for Mendoza), faced off against Anabel Fernández background). Sagasti (Elegí Mendoza), a Kirchnerist candidate who narrowly won the local Peronist alliance’s Shortly thereafter, Fernández travelled to nomination earlier this year. The current administration—a Macri ally that has served as a Europe, where he visited Spain and counter check within the national governing Portugal. The trip—ostensibly for Fernández coalition—reached election day with polls to teach a class at a university in Madrid— estimating a five-point margin over Fernández, served as an opportunity to meet with who was supported by national presidential candidate Alberto Fernández. Spanish President Pedro Sánchez and Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa. However, Suárez achieved a sweeping 15-point Afterwards, he travelled to Bolivia and Peru, victory, which he attributed to an efficient local where he was also received by the administration. Despite his UCR party being allied nationally in President Macri’s coalition, he countries’ leaders. Fernández’s reception emphasized that holding elections separate from by these foreign leaders positions him national elections allowed them to differentiate as a representative of Argentina and themselves from the national government’s helped show him in the role of policies, which he linked to economic failure and president. In addition, Fernández used the social disarray. After this strong electoral showing, Governor Cornejo (a national deputy trips to signal reference points on key candidate) will likely seek to dispute the role of issues; in Portugal he touted the country’s opposition leader from a seat in national congress. approach to emerging from a debt crisis with an un-orthodox formula, and in Bolivia, Governing coalition Cambia Mendoza retained the capital city and won in 11 municipalities. praised the country’s economic model. won the other three cities that held Fernández’s trips also suggested some elections on Sunday. The election was a welcome potential changes in foreign policy piece of news for Macri’s Juntos por el Cambio coalition, which has lost control of many capital under his administration: a Fernández cities this year. Macri’s administration started off foreign policy would prioritize Latin 2019 with 11 capital districts but has lost five so American integration with a renewed far this year, with the most recent one being emphasis on Europe and a lesser role for Neuquén.

the United States (although the Frente de On September 22, Juntos por el Cambio lost Todos candidate has recognized that control of Neuquén capital where the Movimiento Argentina must maintain constructive ties Popular Neuquino (Neuquén People's Movement, with the U.S.). MPN), the provincial party that currently governs the province, won the city back after 20 years. The winning candidate, Mariano Gaidó, is the current Since returning to Argentina in late provincial Minister of Labor and received 40 September, Fernández has been appearing percent of the vote compared to the with Peronist governors and gubernatorial approximately 30 percent received by the current mayor’s candidate. The MPN’s success can be candidates around the country. One of his explained by the national economic context and key campaign messages is the need to the closeness of the ousted mayor to the Macri “federalize Argentina” and create a “federal administration. ”; he has said his administration Given poor results during the primaries, the would leave Buenos Aires at least once a national government is likely to lose in the three month and hold meetings in various remaining capitals that are at stake this year: Río provinces. Fernández’s strong emphasis Gallegos (Santa Cruz), Viedma (Río Negro) and La on creating a more federal country Plata (Buenos Aires). It is highly probable that they finish 2019 controlling only three: the serves a practical purpose: alliances recently-won Mendoza, Jujuy and Corrientes. with governors will be key to

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governability in a possible future Since relaunching his campaign, administration, as will constructive Fernández has been active giving high-

dialogue with unions and the business profile media interviews and speaking ARGENTINA

sector, with whom Fernández has also at a variety of events. This contrasts with – been meeting in recent weeks. the lower profile that Fernández’s running

PCR PCR Fernández has said his government would mate, former President Cristina Fernández seek to reach a “social pact” with unions de Kirchner (CFK), has taken in the and business chambers aimed at taming campaign. CFK has continued with a book

inflation; recent indications that dissident tour in strategic provinces and appeared at elements of the labor movement, such as campaign events in districts where she is Fresimona (see October 2018 PCR for highly popular but has otherwise largely background) and the Argentine Workers' been absent from the campaign. In mid- Central Union (Central de Trabajadores de September, Macri’s VP candidate Miguel la Argentina, CTA), could rejoin the Ángel Pichetto called for the National Confederación General del Trabajo (General Electoral Chamber to organize a debate Confederation of Labor, CGT) and create a between vice presidential candidates; the more unified central umbrella union could Chamber refused this request—a political help facilitate these types of negotiations in move aimed at forcing CFK to center stage the future. of the political debate—saying that these debates are not required by law. While Fernández’s campaign messaging is partly a strategic move (see July PCR for focused on economic issues, notably background), CFK’s absence also owes the need to increase salaries and to personal motives. She has made revive consumption, generate exports, several recent trips to Cuba, where her and address Argentina’s unsustainable daughter is receiving treatment for an debt load, which he has called “the unspecified health issue. biggest problem facing Argentina”. Fernández has repeatedly shown Presidential election outlook willingness to pay and cited Uruguay, which extended maturities through dialogue with The general elections on October 27 bondholders, as an example of the path he are likely to confirm the outcome of the would seek to take. However, he has also primaries and result in Alberto stated that in order to do so, Argentina Fernández being chosen as Argentina’s must promote growth and increase exports next president. Recent polls suggest that to avoid falling into a debt trap.

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Fernández could receive more than 50 implementation of foreign currency controls percent of the vote in the election (see he had once sworn off (see below).

graph), while Macri is polling in the low 30s Nevertheless, Juntos por el Cambio will ARGENTINA

(although it should be noted that polls remain relevant in the national – ahead of the primaries were notably legislature and in some local

PCR PCR unreliable and failed to foresee the margin governments nationwide and securing of victory for Fernández). For Fernández, at least 30 percent of the vote would this would be an improvement on his strengthen its role as possible

performance in the primaries, in which he opposition under a future received 49.5 percent of the vote to Macri’s administration. 32.9 percent. This would allow the candidate to meet For his part, Fernández must avoid either of the two thresholds necessary losing votes in order to assure a first- for winning in the first round and round win as well as maintain his avoiding a ballotage (receiving either 45 diverse coalition; recent days have percent of the vote, or 40 percent with at shown that this is no easy task, but in the

least a 10-point advantage over the second-highest vote recipient). Local allies distance themselves from Macri government in electoral bids As noted above, Macri’s electoral On September 24, President Macri and Buenos strategy seems unlikely to increase his Aires Governor María Eugenia Vidal appeared at vote share enough to force a second the inauguration of a public works project in round, although it may help stem , the first time they had hemorrhaging of votes in the context appeared together publicly since the primary elections. Vidal did not attend the “Yes, we can” of a primary loss and the resulting march on September 28 with other leaders from economic deterioration (see below for Juntos por el Cambio, instead choosing to visit a more information). In order to make up the district in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area. This large gap it has with Fernández, the signals a change in Vidal’s campaign strategy. Prior to the primary elections, photos and events government would have to win a large with the president were frequent, but Vidal is now percentage of new voters in the generals prioritizing being seen with local leaders such as (voter turnout typically increases compared mayors and provincial officials. This decision is to primaries) as well as pick up votes from aimed at pursuing a high level of split-ticket voting to attempt to revert the nearly 18-point lead elsewhere, which seems difficult. The advantage her opponent, former Cristina government has sought to point to the Fernández de Kirchner Economy Minister Axel victory of a coalition ally in the Kicillof, holds following the primaries. Mendoza gubernatorial race as On the other hand, Buenos Aires City Mayor evidence that it could win, but the local Horacio Rodríguez Larreta still has a chance to win election was decided more on local in the first round in October, which requires than national issues (see sidebar for receiving more than 50 percent of the vote. more analysis). However, his performance in the primaries was not as good as expected given the poor results Juntos por el Cambio saw at the national level, Although the government has sought and he must increase vote share by approximately to assign some responsibility for the four percentage points to do so. This is a difficult current economic situation to the task in the face of an energized campaign from principal opponent Matías Lammens (Frente de opposition, polls show that voters Todos). For this reason, Larreta is encouraging attribute more blame to Macri than people to get out and vote, especially older voters Fernández. Additionally, while most voters who do not usually participate in the primaries. He say the measures introduced by the Macri is also targeting the southern region of the city that typically votes for the opposition and has administration won’t affect their vote, urged his campaign team to strengthen their potential impacts tend toward the downside strategy in the south. Larreta, like Vidal, is for Macri, with some supporters telling distancing himself from the national government pollsters they would not vote for him after and avoiding being seen with members of the cabinet. he announced measures such as the re-

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absence of a major misstep, he results of the national primaries. With fears remains the frontrunner ahead of the of a debt default rampant, the Central Bank

October 27 elections. All six candidates had been burning through its reserves in its ARGENTINA

that exceeded the 1.5 percent vote attempt to shore up the peso, pay short- – threshold in the primary elections will term debt, and ensure dollars were

PCR PCR participate in mandatory debates October available to deposit-holders at banks. 13 and 20, but it is not clear these will sway many voters so close to the election. Doubts remain over how long the

peso—which has lost more than 3 Economic situation stabilizes percent of its value since the measure following emergency measures, was implemented—and reserves, remains vulnerable which have continued to decline albeit more slowly, could be sustained The economic situation and business through these controls. The currency climate have notably declined since controls were implemented quickly, and President Macri’s setback in the several clarifications and adjustments have primary elections. The post-election subsequently been issued regarding their period has been characterized by economic scope. These include creating exceptions uncertainty, and the Macri administration for first-time home-buyers and limiting the has taken several measures it previously “rulo”, a short-term play in which investors opposed, such as announcing a reprofiling purchase bonds with dollars bought at the of debt (see August PCR) and reinstating official exchange rate only to resell them currency controls. shortly thereafter in the secondary market at more favorable exchange rate, which On Sunday, September 1, the spiked after the controls were introduced. government published an emergency Another crisis of confidence in decree that reinstated certain foreign Argentina’s economic direction could exchange restrictions1—most of which spark volatility and the need for a fresh it had progressively repealed since round of controls. Uncertainty remains 2015—to try to slow an outflow of high, especially as the International currency amid a crisis of confidence Monetary Fund (IMF) has suspended the and to ensure liquidity in the financial release of the latest tranche of funds agreed system. These measures followed the to under the stand-by agreement pending government’s announcement on August 28 clearer definitions about policy direction that it would unilaterally postpone payment and the electoral results (see below). on short-term notes, seek voluntary restructuring of longer-term debt and open The imposition of current controls is a discussions with the IMF to extend major setback for the Macri repayment periods in an effort to avert a government, which came to power in future hard default (see August PCR for 2015 pledging to loosen such policies background). and shows the seriousness of the constraints of Argentina’s current The currency controls were the economic situation. Treasury Minister government's latest move to ward off a Hernán Lacunza has stated that these were spiraling economic crisis and to prevent not measures the government would have capital flight after the Argentine peso and preferred to implement, but that they were bonds fell to record lows following the necessary to ensure that dollar deposits are backed up, a particularly sensitive issue for

1 The decree implements time limits for the purchase dollars for saving purposes; no dollar- repatriation of foreign earnings by exporters and purchase restrictions apply in the case of foreign requires companies to seek permission to send trade transactions). Residents can purchase up to dividends or profits abroad or buy dollars in the USD 10,000 per month. There are no limits on foreign-exchange market (companies cannot withdrawing cash from accounts.

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Argentines given their mistrust of the calm markets and stabilize the economic banking system since the government froze situation.

deposits in 2001. The stabilization of the ARGENTINA

economic situation may come at the An Argentine economic team is – cost of further eroding support for expected to visit the IMF in

PCR PCR Macri: implementing foreign currency Washington on October 14 for the controls violates one of his key IMF’s annual meeting to continue campaign pledges, making it harder to discussions surrounding the future of

attack the legacy of the previous the deal, but the disbursement is likely Kirchner administrations, and has to take place only after the elections at generated push back from key this point. Discussions after the elections constituencies in the business will likely focus on renegotiation of terms if community. Fernández is elected as the candidate has criticized the obligations set out in the deal, IMF withholds funds pending while also stating that he will respect election results Argentina’s debt obligations (see August PCR for background). The government has After weeks of speculation, the IMF stated that there is no urgent need for the recently confirmed that it will withhold funds but that they will be important for a USD 5.4 billion disbursement that meeting debt obligations towards the end of was expected for September 15, the year. Private analysts have estimated suggesting that it wants more clarity that Argentina has a financing need of on policy direction under the next between USD 6-7 billion for the remainder administration before it releases more of the year. funds. Although the Macri government has repeatedly stated that it has met the fiscal Worsening economic situation requirements for the release of the prompts social pushback disbursement, the IMF is still concerned about the sustainability of Argentina’s debt The new economic context, including in the medium term and the next the strong devaluation of the peso of administration’s commitment to the targets over 25 percent after the primaries, agreed upon in the deal. has contributed to a significant revision of economic projections for Treasury Minister Hernán Lacunza and 2019 and 2020. Monthly inflation in Central Bank President August reached 4 percent, reversing the travelled to Washington in late September slowing inflationary trend seen since April to discuss the future of the stand-by (3.4 percent), May (3.1 percent), June (2.7 agreement with IMF representatives. percent) and July (2.2 percent). Inflation is Lacunza briefly met with the IMF’s new expected to be even higher in September— managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, with private projections suggesting it could who stated that Argentina is a top priority exceed 6 percent—due to the delayed effect for the IMF and that she looks forward to of exchange-rate pass-through to inflation. working with Argentine authorities. Macri, Consequently, private analysts have who was in New York for the UN General revised 2019 inflation estimates upwards to Assembly, met with the IMF’s then-Acting over 50 percent, which would be higher Managing Director David Lipton. than last year, when inflation hit the highest Subsequently, Lipton stated that the IMF annual rate recorded in 27 years. At the will continue to work with Argentina, same time, economic activity is now regardless of who wins the upcoming expected to contract by 2.5 percent in presidential election, to respond to the 2019, compared to estimates of 1.6 percent country’s “difficult situation”. Lipton also at the beginning of the year, and economic stated that the main challenge now is to growth is only expected to recover in 2021.

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This worsening economic context is Emergency” relief package. On September hitting Argentina’s lower-middle class 9, the opposition presented a bill to that

hard. The latest figures released by effect in the Chamber of Deputies. The bill ARGENTINA

national statistics agency Indec on advanced quickly with nearly – September 30 put nationwide poverty at unanimous support in both houses,

PCR PCR 35.4 percent of the population in the first and the Senate give final approval on quarter, an increase of 8.1 percent year-on- September 18. The bill extends the year and the highest figure in more than a “nutritional emergency”—originally

decade. This number is even higher in many declared by then-President Eduardo regions of the country and among the Duhalde in 2002 following the 2001 crisis, under-15 population, which has a poverty and subsequently extended by law— rate that exceeds 50 percent. With a two- through December 31, 2022. It mandates quarter delay, these figures do not yet an immediate minimum 50 percent increase reflect the impact of the most recent in funds allocated to food assistance economic developments, and private programs and authorizes the cabinet chief estimates are that poverty will reach to increase these allocations on a quarterly 38 percent by the end of the year. basis in line with inflation and prices changes for a basic basket of goods The deterioration of the economic beginning in 2020. situation in recent weeks and the weakened position of the Macri Although the government had administration post-primaries has put originally not supported the measure, the government in a tight spot as it the current political and economic must balance competing demands context as well as pressure from the from different sectors clamoring to opposition made this position have their concerns met while also untenable, and Macri ultimately said he managing its increasingly scarce would not veto the measure. In part, the resources. In early September, social advancement of the measure owes to movements, several provincial social unification of the various opposition blocs in development ministers and labor Congress, which post-elections, were able confederation CGT increased pressure on to unite in favor of the measure. The the administration to advance a “Nutritional administration was hesitant to open debate

Source: Cedlas, based on Indec.

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in Congress during the electoral period, but agreement was reached to keep debate Debt reprofiling, budget stalled in short and prevent the sessions from Congress until elections

ARGENTINA becoming highly politicized. Additionally, – On September 19, the government sent a bill to the Macri government has said the measure the national Chamber of Deputies that sets the bases for reprofiling medium- and long-term debt

PCR PCR will not affect its ability to achieve its fiscal goals, as spending is not to be increased, issued under local law (estimated at USD 32 billion). The introduction of the bill to Congress but rather reallocated, which also likely came three weeks after the government had said eased the path for the bill to become law. it would. The proposal sets the bases for beginning negotiations by incorporating collective The national government is also facing action clauses to debt issued under local law; the opposition has said the measure is unnecessary pressure from unions to do more for and the government has the authority to initiate workers affected by higher-than- negotiations and seek authorization for the final anticipated inflation. In early September, agreement. the CGT requested that private companies The government has said the delay in sending the pay employees a one-time bonus of ARS bill was due to inability to reach an agreement 5,000 (USD 88.5). The request, which with opposition forces, who in turn said they were followed the one-time bonus of ARS 5,000 never consulted about the measure. In any case, awarded to national public-sector the lag seems to reflect a lack of priority placed on advancing the bill across the . employees, was met by some resistance Indeed, although the bill has now been from the Unión Industrial Argentina introduced, it has not advanced in a Congress (Argentine Industrial Union, UIA, which where activity has largely ground to a halt pending represents businesses in the industrial the elections. The proposal sets the bases for beginning negotiations by incorporating collective sector), which argued that companies action clauses to debt issued under local law; the cannot bear the costs of the bonus given opposition has said the measure is unnecessary the magnitude of the economic recession and the government has the authority to initiate and high interest rates. However, the negotiations and seek authorization for the final agreement. government was eager to secure the payment to avoid reopening wage Also languishing in Congress is the 2020 budget negotiations with unions before the proposal, which was sent to Congress in mid- elections and to show it is doing September in line with the legally mandated deadline. The opposition has criticized the bill’s something for workers but agreed to optimistic 2020 projections—1 percent growth, more favorable terms for companies. annual inflation at 34 percent and an average On September 26, the government issued a exchange rate of 67 pesos to the dollar—and decree mandating an ARS 5,000 bonus that discussion will likely not occur until after the elections. is non-remunerative (not subject to social security taxes) and counts as an advance on future salary increases.

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