Dry Seasonal Conditions in Rural Victoria
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Department of Primary Industries Dry Seasonal Conditions in Rural Victoria Report: 61 November 9, 2006 A few Wimmera crops on fallow will have fair yields and take advantage of good prices. (November 2006). Source: D. Price Environmental Indicators Weather Rainfall Some parts of north west Victoria received no rain in October (Figure 1). Much of Eastern Victoria and the South West received 50-100 mm less than the long term average for October. Some alpine areas received 100-200 mm less than usual. A number of cold fronts passed through the state during October but they yielded 1 mm or less of rain compared with a more typical 10-20 mm. October rainfall was decile 1 across the state with some areas being the lowest on record. Victoria received less than 40% of its usual October rainfall, with all but a few southern districts receiving less than 20%. There was reasonable rainfall in early November across parts of Victoria. Temperature Extreme temperatures were a feature of October with clear skies producing hot days and cold nights. Both the highest mean maximum temperature for Victoria and the second lowest mean minimum since 1950 were recorded. Drought Rainfall deficiencies have been increasing in area since August 2006 according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s Drought Statement (3rd Nov). The August to October period was the second driest on record for Victoria since DSC Report 1 1900. Victoria also recorded the highest maximum temperatures for August to October since records began (post 1950). Seasonal outlook The Bureau of Meteorology’s Seasonal Outlook for November 2006 to January 2007 has improved on previous forecasts. The chance of above-average rainfall across Victoria is 40-50%. The probability of above-normal daytime temperatures is 60-65% across Victoria. The probability of above-normal night time temperatures is 65-80% across Victoria. The Southern Oscillation Index for October was -15. The 2006-07 El Niño has now matured which potentially could mean better rain in late summer as the El Niño declines. Figure 1. Victorian rainfall (mm) 1 month (October 2006) Percentage of monthly mean (1961 – 1990 base period) National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Water storages Goulburn-Murray Water (G-MW) On October 16th G-MW increased allocations for Murray (up 2% to 95%), Goulburn (up 2% to 23%) and the Broken (up 15% to 60%). There were no further increases on November 1st. Southern Rural Water (SRW) On October 23rd SRW increased the water allocations to 10% for both Bacchus Marsh (up from zero) and Werribee (up from 5%) to be made available by pumping dead water from Pyke’s Creek Reservoir. Storage Change in Capacity Storage Change in Capacity last month 6/11/06 last month 6/11/06 Goulburn Basin -3% 19% Thomson/ LaTrobe Basin -4% 36% Broken Basin -3% 28% Werribee Basin -2% 14% Campaspe Basin -1% 6% Glenelg/ Wimmera Basin -1% 6% Loddon Basin -1% 23% Maribyrnong -1% 6% Upper Murray Basin -7% 32% Barwon Storage -4% 31% Ovens Basin -4% 70% Source: http://www.fishvictoria.com/pnews/water_levels.php Fire Fire restrictions were introduced approximately 2 months early in most areas. Based on the number of fires, the season is approximately 8 weeks ahead of average. Locusts Up to 25 mm of rain across the North Central on November 2nd could trigger hatchings of locusts in the next week. There have already been reports of hatchings at Gunbower Island. Reports from north west Victoria have DSC Report 2 been identified as Small Plague Grasshoppers rather than Plague Locusts. Extremely low numbers of the Australian Plague Locust are present in NSW and Qld. Fisheries Many lake fisheries in the South West are dry and others at risk of drying this summer. Gong Gong Reservoir, which contains trout, may be drawn down by Central Highlands Water to top up the White Swan Reservoir and this may put these fish at risk. Another decision not to allocate environmental water to the Wimmera River has safeguarded the Taylors Lake fishery, but may cause drying pools and water quality impacts on Wimmera River fish this summer. While the consideration of fisheries may be secondary when such decisions are made, it is also important to minimise any loss of social amenity that may exacerbate regional depression. It is likely that lack of stream flow is impacting on the patterns of normal migration/spawning for some estuarine fish species. For example, spawning aggregations of black bream normally noticed in the Hopkins River at this time of year, have not yet been observed. Similarly, the inland running eels will be impacted by a lack of water at the Hopkins Falls Social Indicators DPI Drought Hotline The DPI / DSE Customer Service Centre received 320 drought related contacts for the period 1st to 31st October 2006 compared with 15 in August and 36 in September. They were completed by FAQ (215), referred (57), information sent (33), transferred (11) or a web reference (4). Calls were received from the South West (108), North West (82), North East (71), Port Phillip (38), Gippsland (10), Interstate (9) and unknown (2). FAQ’s used to answer customer enquiries Total Exceptional Circumstances 112 Water inquiries 62 General information 43 Drought feeding of cattle and sheep 34 Stock containment 20 Groundwater enquiry line 19 Rebate for rural water bills 8 Carted water rebate 7 Dry seasonal conditions coordinators 6 Drought Preparation and Survival Guide 4 Rural Counsellors 2 Donations 1 Emergency water supply points 1 Rural apprentice support 1 Total 320 Drought financial assistance Rural Finance Corporation reports 4,852 applications for the Exceptional Circumstances Interest Rate Subsidy have been received to date with 3,587 approved and 1,008 declined so far. Total value of the subsidies approved is $74 million with an average of $20,845. The federal government has extended the expiry date for all Victorian Exceptional Circumstances areas to 31st March 2008. In addition, all producers in these areas are now eligible for assistance, rather than the particular industry nominated in the original application (e.g. dryland or irrigated dairy). The eligibility requirements have also been relaxed with the off-farm income test increased from $50,000 to $65,000. The Interest Rate Subsidy cap has been increased from $300,000 to $500,000 over 5 years. The requirement to have operated without government support for two of the last five years has been removed. In addition the federal government has extended EC support to small businesses that can demonstrate that 70% of their income is from farm businesses in EC-declared areas (November 7th). These small businesses (up to 20 staff) will be eligible for the same income support and interest rate subsidies as farm businesses. DSC Report 3 The federal government has also launched a mobile service to take information on drought support directly to rural communities. The bus will visit northern Victoria in the week of the 15th-18th November. Victorian Government assistance Assistance measures announced in October, relevant agency in brackets, include: • A $5,000 rebate on rural water bills where the allocation of water is less than 50% (DSE); • Local councils will share in $1.4 million to host a series of events and programs in 14 of the worst drought affected communities to help boost community morale (DVC); • $1.25 million to help social support agencies such as Vicrelief and Foodbank provide additional support services for families in some of the worst drought affected communities (DHS); • $900,000 to boost mental health services in drought-affected towns. This will also help community leaders and service providers to deal with the complex needs and mental health issues experienced during the prolonged drought (DHS); • $1.5 million Drought Business Support package that will offer one-on-one business counselling to businesses significantly affected by the drought and a series of information events (RDV); • $1.8 million to help farmers make important on-farm decisions about crops and offer a production in the short, medium and longer term, offer a series of industry specific and regionally targeted workshops. Includes $1.3 million future farm planning and $500,000 stock containment areas (DPI); • $10 million under the Regional Infrastructure Development Program to prioritise water projects with industry and water authorities to reduce water consumption and increase reuse opportunities (RDV); • $10 million towards a range of projects including fencing works, pest management, stock containment and environmental works to be managed through the Catchment Management Authorities (DSE); • A $3.75 million Drought Apprenticeship Retention Bonus will give one-off $1500 cash grants per apprentice to businesses in EC declared areas which directly provide services to the farming industry (DPI); Municipal rates subsidy A total of $219,183 in municipal rate subsidies was paid to EC relief payment recipients so far in 2006-07. The 22 Shire and Rural City Councils were paid $7,671 to administer the delivery of this additional drought assistance on behalf of the state government. Community report On October 9th 2006 the federal government announced Medicare reforms that included an additional $51.7 million over five years to improve mental health services in rural and remote communities throughout Australia. Funding will be distributed on a needs basis, rather than a population basis, with rural and remote communities in Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory expected to receive a higher proportion. Economic Indicators Production figures and forecasts ABARE’s Australian Crop and Livestock Report 2006-07: Drought Update (27 October) has estimated Australian beef production will decline by 13% and sheep meat by 35%. Prices have fallen considerably in recent months reflecting the higher turnoff for slaughter.