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Military Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1959-63 : Bulletin of the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, No. 1262

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Military Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1959-63 : Bulletin of the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, No. 1262 Military Manpower Requirements and Supply 1959-63 Bulletin No. 1262 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR James P. Mitchell, Secretary BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Ewan Clague. Commissioner Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Military Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1959-63 Bulletin No. 1262 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR James P. Mitchell, Secretary BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Ewan Clague, Commissioner November 1959 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D.C. Price 1 5 cents Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Preface This bulletin presents the findings of a study of military manpower supply and requirements undertaken to provide background information pertinent to a consideration of the extension of the authority to induct men under pro­ visions of the Universal Military Training and Service Act. This authority, which was due to expire on June 30, 1959, was recently extended by the Con­ gress until June 30, 1963. Pages 1 to 7 of this bulletin were reprinted from the Monthly Labor Review for August 1959. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has made several studies of this nature; the previous edition was Bulletin 1166, Military Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1955-59. The study was undertaken at the request of the Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization. This bulletin was prepared by Stuart H. Garfinkle of the Division of Manpower and Employment Statistics. Most of the statistical estimates were prepared by the Department of Defense and were included, in summary form, in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee on January 26, 1959. Harold Wool and Clayton Thompson of the Depart­ ment of Defense were especially helpful. Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Contents P a g e Basic considerations______________________________________________________ 1 Current situation_________________________________________________________ CO rl< «D Military manpower pool, 1958-63__________________________________________ Characteristics of men in the manpower pool_________________________________ Conclusions_____________________________________________________________ Tables 1. Estimated military service status of men aged 19-26^ years, June 30 of 1958 and 1963____________________________________________________________ 4 2. Estimated annual inflows to military manpower pool, men aged 1 8 }i- 2 5 f fiscal years 1959-63________________________________________________________ 5 3. Projected military manpower pool, men aged 18^-25, fiscal years 1959-63___ 6 Chart Estimated military service status of men aged 19-26, June 30 of 1958 and 1963___ 2 Technical appendix Manpower pool, July 1, 1958_______________________________________________ 8 Projected manpower pool,1959-63 __________________________________________ 9 Estimate of the number of fathers in the military manpower pool_______________ 10 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis M ilitary M anpower Requirem ents and Supply, 1959-63 B e t w e e n 1959 and 1963, military manpower s u p ­ a feasible balance must be achieved at any given ply will be more than adequate and no fathers time. will be inducted, but qualified young men attain­ Personal or family hardships have been ac­ ing age 26 in that period must count on service. cepted as valid reasons for excuse from military Most young men graduating from high school in service or for a delay in commencing service. 1960 will have 4 or 5 years for college or busi­ The degree of hardship recognized changes from ness before they are drafted. A recent study by time to time, depending on the need for and avail­ the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor ability of manpower. Statistics1 discloses these and other facts of prime The second exception to the principle of equity interest to the public, employers, personnel di­ has arisen because manpower needs of the civilian rectors, and government agencies. economy must be balanced against those of the military. During World War II, the large Armed Basic Considerations Forces and the enormous defense production pro­ gram strained manpower resources. During the The method of obtaining men for military serv­ Korean conflict, the need for an adequate flow of ice has been a matter of continuing concern to the highly trained workers, both to meet the increas­ Armed Forces, to civilian agencies of Government, ingly technical requirements of the Armed Forces and to the Congress. Traditionally, except in and the needs of the industrial economy, gave times of war, dependence upon voluntary enlist­ rise to a student deferment program. More re­ ment has prevailed. When compulsory service cently, special provision has been made for brief became necessary, the governing principle of periods of active service for members of “critical equity—e quality of obligation—administered occupations,” to be followed by membership in through the Selective Service System and its local the reserves. Occupation was also considered in boards of responsible citizens in each community, calling up reservists and in screening individuals made compulsory military service acceptable to from the Ready to the Standby Reserve. For the public. There are, however, three major ex­ ceptions to this general principle, among which these and other purposes, the U.S. Department of Labor prepared an official List of Critical Oc­ JThe Bureau of Labor Statistics has made several studies of cupations. this nature. Of the earlier ones, the most recent was Military The third exception to the equity principle has Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1955-59, supplementing Military Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1954-60, BLS arisen because of the varying standards for accept­ Bull. 1161 (1955). See also Monthly Labor Review, July 1955, pp. 782-784. ability for military service. The degree of physi­ The findings in the present study, undertaken at the request cal and mental fitness required of men for service of the Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization, were based on data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Department has depended upon the nature of warfare as well as of Defense. Estimating procedures are described in Military the availability of manpower. In recent years, the Manpower Requirements and Supply, 1959-63, forthcoming BLS Bull. 1262. increasingly technical character of warfare has ac- l Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2 centuated the training needs of the Armed Forces change in policy is being considered. The present and raised the mental demands. This has been ac­ study was made early in 1959, primarily to ap­ companied by a rise in the mental standards for praise the probable effects of extending the induc­ service, eliminating a large proportion of the tion authority of the Selectiye Service System, young men.2 which was scheduled to expire on June 30, 1959.8 Thus, against this general principle of equality The study examined the military manpower sit­ of obligation for service have been set three excep­ uation as of June 30,1958, and the size and char­ tions—one providing excuse or deferment on the acteristics of the “military manpower pool” (the basis of family responsibilities; the second limit­ number of draft-liable men who would be eligible ing the availability of higher skilled men in the for induction at any given time under existing interest of the civilian economy; the third reject­ Selective Service rules and regulations). The ing the less capable men in the population. In study also examined the prospects of the military developing military manpower policies, it has been manpower pool. Estimates of the future pool essential to know the probable effect of various were based on the assumptions that current mili­ alternatives upon our ability to meet our military tary manpower policies would remain unchanged manpower needs, particularly when a major until at least 1963, and that the size of the Armed * Qualifying requirements were raised under provisions of P.L. Forces would decline from 2.6 million on June 85-564, approved July 28, 1958, and Executive Order 10776 of 30, 1958, to 2.5 million on June 30, 1959, and re­ the same date. An extended discussion of problems resulting from the accept­ main at that level until June 30, 1963. These ance of men in the lower mental groups can be found in a study by Eli Ginzberg and others, The Lost Divisions (New Tork, 8 The authority was extended by P.L. 86-4, approved March Columbia University Press, 1959). 23, 1959. Estimated Military Service Status of Men Aged 19-26, June 30 of 1958 and 1963 Thousands ------1,600 Entered Service Not Qualified Deferrable1 Fathers1 Nonfather Pool 1958 63 58 63 58 '63 '58 '63 •58 '63 '58 '63 '58 '63 '58 '63 Age: 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 1 Physically fit, not ontorod service, and dependency. Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 assumptions, while essential for such a study, are induction receive a physical and mental exami­ subject to modification as policies and circum­ nation which determines their acceptability for stances change; indeed, the results of such a study active duty. It is estimated that about one-third as this may point to needed policy changes.4 of the entire male population would, if examined, be rejected by the Armed Forces. Because only Current Situation those men who have not volunteered are subject to induction, the physical and mental rejection Before considering the current size of the mili­ rate for men examined for induction is consider­ tary manpower pool, it is necessary to review the ably higher than that of the whole male popula­ present military manpower situation. At the tion; currently, about half are rejected as not present time, men are obtained for the Armed qualified.
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