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Baseline Study Report Belarus Lithuania Russian Federation (Original Language: Russian) UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) «Management of the Neman River basin with account of adaptation to climate change» Baseline Study Report Belarus Lithuania Russian Federation (Original language: Russian) Vladimir Korneev Central Research Institute for Complex Use of Water Resources (CRICUWR) Minsk, Republic of Belarus With input from Egidijus Rimkus and Audrius Sepikas (Lithuania), Andrey Shalygin (Russian Federation) August 2011 Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................. 3 1 Neman River Basin Overview ......................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................. 4 1.2 Geology and relief ..................................................................................................................... 7 1.3 Soils ............................................................................................................................................. 8 1.4 Hydrological characteristics ............................................................................................... 8 1.4.1 Water resource formation ................................................................................................. 8 1.4.2 Hydrological observation network ................................................................................... 9 1.4.3 Water flow characteristics ............................................................................................... 13 1.4.4 Ice conditions .................................................................................................................... 15 1.4.5 Overview of extreme weather conditions ..................................................................... 15 1.5 Climatic conditions ................................................................................................................... 16 1.5.1 Climate overview .............................................................................................................. 16 1.5.2 Overview of the network of meteorological observation posts .................................. 18 1.6. Water use characteristics in the Neman River Basin ........................................................ 20 1.6.1 Population ......................................................................................................................... 20 1.6.2 Industry and agriculture ................................................................................................... 20 1.6.3 Water use overview ......................................................................................................... 21 1.7 Quality of surface water .......................................................................................................... 23 1.7.1 Characterization of the surface water quality monitoring network ............................ 23 1.7.2 Surface water quality classification ............................................................................... 24 1.7.3 General description of surface water quality ................................................................ 25 2 Characterization of the previously conducted studies on climate change and its implications for water resources in relation to the Neman River basin ............................................................ 26 3 Characterization of the meteorological and hydrological observation network in the Neman River basin in the context of using the observation data to analyze and forecast climate change and its impact on the water resources of the river basin ................................................ 32 4 Total vulnerability assessment of the Neman River basin water resources to climate change .................................................................................................................................................. 33 5 Description of the existing legislative and normative base for development of international cooperation in the Neman River basin and for planning in the field of use of water resources in the context of climate change ....................................................................................................... 42 6 Brief description of the previously implemented projects related to the Neman River basin ............................................................................................................................................................... 45 Conclusions and Suggestions .......................................................................................................... 49 Reference Index .................................................................................................................................. 52 2 Executive Summary As suggested by hydrometeorological observation data and climatic forecasts, water resources may be vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with major implications for the human society and ecosystems. The growing intensity of precipitation and changing precipitation patterns may increase the risks of floods and excessive droughts. The frequency of high precipitation may increase throughout the 21 st century, raising the probability of flooding and accelerating soil erosion. Drought-prone areas are also expected to increase in size. Rising water temperatures and the changing nature of extreme weather conditions, in- cluding floods and droughts of increased intensity, will negatively impact water quality and increase water contamination. Major contaminants may include organic carbon deposits, pa- thogens, pesticides, and salt. This, along with hot water pollution, may have significant impli- cations for ecosystems, human health, and water supply reliability. Sectors that are projected to be the most affected by these negative impacts will in- clude agriculture (facing increased demands for irrigation), energy (decreased hydropower potential and lower availability of cooling water), tourism (notably, water tourism), fisheries and water transport. Because of the importance of these sectors for national and individual well-being, the effects of climate change on water resources have major direct and indirect implications. Serious risks also exist for biodiversity [1]. The EU water framework directive recommends the use of the river basin approach to water management. The Neman river basin, covering the territory of the Republic of Belarus, Republic of Lithuania and Kaliningrad Region (Oblast) of Russian Federation, has high levels of water usage, owing to abundance of industrial and industrial facilities, and oil and high density of oil and petroleum pipelines. Evaluation and forecasting of the water resources in the transnational basin of the Neman River and water quality have become of relevance re- cently in the context of climate change. As a part of the UNECE pilot projects program on adaptation to climate change in transboundary water basins, a pilot project is under way in the Neman river basin. This baseline study report on the Neman river basin presents essential data for the study of the water resource dynamic of the Neman river in the context of adaptation to cli- mate change and water resources management. This includes an overview of the Neman river basin, a literature review of climate change in the three countries concerned, a presen- tation of data from the network of observation posts, and a range of other institutional, legal and scientific aspects of water management of the Neman river basin in the context of as- sessment, forecasting and adaptation to climate change. 3 1 Neman River Basin Overview 1.1 Background The Neman River Basin is located between 56 015’ and 52 045’ N and 22 040’-28 010’ E. Total river length is 937 km, and the river basin area is 98 200 км 2. Based on the size of the river basin, the Neman is classified as a major river. The river basin covers the territories of Belarus, Lithuania, Russia (Kaliningrad Oblast), Poland and Latvia (Figure 1.1, Tables 1.1, 1.2). Because the Latvian and Polish sections of the Neman river basin have only the upper reaches of some tributaries, they are beyond the scope of this Report. Figure1.1 – Map of the Neman river basin 4 Table1.1 - Countries in the Neman river basin area Total basin area, Drainage basin area, Country % of total basin area Km 2 км ² Lithuania 46 795 47,7 Belarus 45 600 46,4 Russian Federa- 98 200 3 132 3,2 tion Poland 2 554 2,6 Latvia 98 0,1 The river Neman begins at the juncture of the Rivers Ussa and Losha and flows into the Curonian Lagoon of the Baltic Sea. Total water surface area is 157.9 км 2. The source is lo- cated near the settlement of Verkh-Nemanets. The next 25 kilometers of the watercourse – the Nemanets - is a narrow canal. The stream widens at the merger with its two tributaries – Losha (42 Km) and Ussa (115 km), and is referred to as the River Neman from this point [2]. In terms of length and catchment area size, Neman's largest tributaries include, from source to estuary, Berezina, Schara, Kotra, Svisloch, Merkis, Vilija (Neris), Nevezis, Dubisa, Sesute, Jura and Minija [3,4]. The Neman's catchment area has a pear-like shape , typical of large and medium-sized river basins. The Neman River Basin has an
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