Ten-Year Plan (2010 – 2019) of Electric Companies in Maryland
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PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION OF MARYLAND TEN-YEAR PLAN (2010 – 2019) OF ELECTRIC COMPANIES IN MARYLAND Prepared for the Maryland Department of Natural Resources In compliance with Section 7-201 of the Maryland Public Utilities Article August 2011 State of Maryland Public Service Commission Douglas R. M. Nazarian, Chairman Harold D. Williams, Commissioner Lawrence Brenner, Commissioner Terry J. Romine Gregory V. Carmean H. Robert Erwin Executive Secretary Executive Director General Counsel 6 St. Paul Street Baltimore, MD 21202 Tel: (410) 767-8000 www.psc.state.md.us This report was drafted by the Commission’s Energy Analysis and Planning Division (Crissy Godfrey, Director), and the Engineering Division (Jerry Hughes, Chief Engineer). Electric companies under the Commission’s jurisdiction provided most of the data in the Appendix. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 II. MARYLAND UTILITY AND PJM ZONAL LOAD FORECASTS ......................2 A. Introduction.........................................................................................2 B. PJM Zonal Forecast ............................................................................4 C. Maryland Company Forecasts ............................................................5 III. REGIONAL GENERATION AND SUPPLY ADEQUACY IN MARYLAND.....6 A. Introduction.........................................................................................6 B. Maryland Generation Profile: Age and Fuel Characteristics.............8 C. Potential Generation Additions in Maryland ....................................12 D. CPCN Exemptions for Generation....................................................14 IV. TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE: PJM, MARYLAND, AND NATIONAL...............................................................................................................18 A. Introduction.......................................................................................18 B. Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative ..............................18 C. The Regional Transmission Expansion Planning Protocol...............19 D. Congestion in Maryland....................................................................22 E. High Voltage Transmission Lines in PJM........................................24 V. DEMAND RESPONSE AND CONSERVATION AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ...........................................................................................................25 A. Statutory Requirements.....................................................................26 B. Demand Response Initiatives............................................................27 C. Energy Efficiency and Conservation Programs................................34 D. Advanced Metering Infrastructure / Smart Grid...............................37 E. Mid-Atlantic Distributed Resources Initiative (“MADRI”) .............42 VI. ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT, AND RENEWABLES ..................................42 A. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative ..........................................42 B. The Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard Program........................45 C. Solar Power Requirements in Maryland...........................................51 VII. ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION RELIABILITY IN MARYLAND ........................53 A. Electric Distribution Reliability........................................................53 B. Distribution Reliability Issues...........................................................55 C. Managing Distribution Outages........................................................57 D. Distribution Planning Process...........................................................64 VIII. MARYLAND ELECTRICITY MARKETS............................................................68 A. Status of Retail Electric Choice in Maryland ...................................68 B. Standard Offer Service......................................................................70 IX. REGIONAL ENERGY ISSUES AND EVENTS ....................................................71 A. Overview of PJM, OPSI, and Reliability First .................................71 B. PJM Summer Peak Events of 2009 and 2008...................................72 C. PJM’s Reliability Pricing Model .....................................................73 D. Region-Wide Demand Response in PJM Markets............................75 i X. PROCEEDINGS BEFORE THE FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION.........................................................................................................76 APPENDIX.............................................................................................................................77 Table A-1: Utilities Providing Retail Electric Service in Maryland.........................78 Table A-2: Number of Customers by Customer Class (As of December 31, 2009) .................................................................................................79 Table A-3: Average Monthly Sales by Customer Class (KWh) (Calendar Year 2009) .................................................................................................80 Table A-4: Typical Monthly Utility Bills in Maryland (Winter 2010)....................81 Table A-5(a): System-Wide Peak Demand Forecast (Net of DSM Programs: MW) (As of December 31, 2009).....................................................82 Table A-5(b): Maryland Peak Demand Forecast (Net of DSM Programs; MW) (As of December 31, 2009)...............................................................83 Table A-5(c): System-Wide Peak Demand Forecast (Gross of DSM Programs; MW) (As of December 31, 2009).....................................................84 Table A-5(d): Maryland Peak Demand Forecast (Gross of DSM Programs; MW) (As of December 31, 2009).....................................................85 Table A-6(a): System-Wide Energy Sales Forecast (Net of DSM Programs; GWh).................................................................................................86 Table A-6(b): Maryland Energy Sales Forecast (Net of DSM Programs; GWh)....87 Table A-7: Licensed Electricity Suppliers and Brokers and Natural Gas Suppliers and Brokers (As of 11/1/2010) .........................................88 Table A-8: Transmission Enhancements by Service Area ......................................92 Table A-9: Renewable Projects Providing Capacity and Energy to Maryland Customers (As of December 31, 2009).............................................98 Table A-10: Power Plants in the PJM Process for New Electric Generating Stations in Maryland (As of December 31, 2009) ............................99 ii LIST OF MAPS, FIGURES, TABLES, AND CHARTS Map I.1: Maryland Utilities and their Service Territories in Maryland............................. 2 Figure II. A.1: PJM Maryland Forecast Zones .................................................................. 3 Table II.B.1. Summer Peak Load (MW) Growth Rates .................................................... 4 Table II.B.2. Winter Peak Load (MW) Growth Rates....................................................... 4 Table II.C. 1 Comparison of Maryland Peak Demand Forecasts ....................................... 5 Table II.C.2 Comparison of Maryland Energy Sales Forecast ........................................... 6 Table III.A.1: State Electricity Imports (Year 2008 in GWh) ........................................... 8 Table III.B.1: Maryland Generating Capacity Profile (Year 2008)................................... 8 Table III.B.2: Maryland Electric Power Generation Profile (2008) ................................ 10 Table III.B.3: Generation by Owner, County, and Capacity (Year 2008)....................... 11 Table III.C.1: PJM Transmission Queue Active New Generating Capacity ................... 14 Table III.D.1: Construction Approvals for CPCN Exempt Generation Since October 2001................................................................................................................................... 16 Table III.D.2: Number and Capacity in MW of CPCN Exempt Generation by Energy Resource as of September 30, 2010.................................................................................. 17 Table V.B.1: Utilities’ Incentives to DLC Program Participants .................................... 29 Table V.B.2: Utilities’ Direct Load Program Installations;............................................. 29 Table V.B.3: Direct Load Control Program Bids into PJM BRA (MW) ........................ 30 Table V.B.4: Peak Load Reduction Forecast (MW)........................................................ 33 Table V.C.1: Five Percent Reduction in Maryland Energy Sales By 2011..................... 35 Table V.C.2: Five Percent Demand Reduction in Maryland Peak Demand By 2011..... 35 Table VI.B.1: State CO2 Allowances (2009 – 2014) ....................................................... 44 Table VI.B.1. Eligible Tier 1 and Tier 2 Resources ........................................................ 46 Table VI.B.2: RPS Percentage Requirements.................................................................. 47 Table VI.B.3: RPS Alternative Compliance Fee Schedule.............................................. 48 Table VI.B.4: RPS Supplier Annual Report Results as of December 31, 2009 .............. 49 Chart VI.B.5: MD RPS Eligible Capacity by State as of December 31, 2009 ................ 51 Table VIII.A.1: Residential Customers Enrolled in Retail Supply at Year End.............