SKYWARN Spotter Training http://weather.gov3. 2. 1. • • You screen this of picture a to take want may go.usa.gov/ o Download go.usa.gov/ at Guide WeatherField the Spotters Download at Register Certificate of training sent to your Email your to sent of training Certificate “Trained affiliationChoose your as Spotter” National National WeatherService goo.gl/ xnDYC xnDrs ur SKYWARNur Warning Meteorologist Coordination Daniel Noah [email protected] UDCJWu (case sensitive) (case – TampaBay Area Handout at Handout (case sensitive) (case http://weather.gov National WeatherService http://weather.gov Local Weather Federal GovernmentAgency Forecast Office National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Department of Commerce Department Hurricane National Center Weather National Service Prediction Center Storm River Forecast Center http://weather.gov Local Weather Forecast Offices Forecast Weather Local http://weather.gov • • • One of 122 local offices local of 122 One year a days /365 a day hours 24 Meteorologists 17 Employees, 23 NWS Tampa Bay Area Ruskin, Ruskin, FL Fire WeatherFire Aviation http://weather.govRivers Observations Observations Marine Marine Radar and Radar and Warnings Warnings 7 - day ForecastUpdates Decision Support Decision Support Forecast Decision Support Decision Support Updates 7 - day Services Services http://weather.gov We issuetheyou warnings hearon and radio TV Hazardous Weather Warnings http://weather.gov Management Emergency and Public and Officials Integrated Warning Team Warning Integrated Members of the Members Weather National National Service and Climate Industry Climateand Private Companies, America’s Weather America’s App Developers) (e.g. (e.g. Media, http://weather.gov for your your county for • • • Alerts youevenwhen you’re sleeping! New radios can be programmed just canbe programmed radios New Warnsof made andmanhazardsnatural NOAA WeatherRadio http://weather.gov www.AlertFlorida.com http://weather.gov http://www.fema.gov/app Free FEMA App http://weather.gov SKYWARN for Smart Phones SKYWARNfor Smart • • The Spotter Network Spotter The SKYWARNAdvanced with replaced Experimental http://spotternetwork.org http://weather.gov http://weather.gov Smart Phone Software PhoneSmart listed SpotterNetwork.org at listed iPhone you arewatching We may you call to discussstorm Android http://weather.gov Join Our Network Today! Network Join Our http://weather.gov Florida Ranked #10 For the most States with tornadoes http://weather.gov Florida Tornadoes http://weather.gov When isaWarning Issued? 1. 2. weather severe the detects Radar reports severe weather severe reports spotter weather severe TrainedSKYWARN http://weather.gov SKYWARNRadio for Amateur weather.gov/tampa/wx4tor http://weather.gov SKYWARN Training Agenda SKYWARNTraining Hurricanes CellSuper Cloudsand ShelfDownbursts Safety to reportseverehow weather Why needWeatherwe Spotters & http://weather.gov Why isthe NWSHereToday? Private Severe Weather Reporting Line We need your reports thepublicWe your reports tohelpwarnneed - - - - observe: Call the NWS when you 1 Any size hailAny size Tornadoes,waterspouts 2” perhourrainflooding or 50+ MPH - 800 - 282 - 1228 http://weather.gov response, and improves warning accuracy warning improves and response, Your credibility, add reports public increase Why We NeedSpotters http://weather.gov Inside the RadarDome The dish is 3 stories is 3stories Thehigh dish http://weather.gov View from Ruskin View from Best Data20 Too close then can’t see tops see can’t then close Too degrees cut off, our radarupgoes only19 the topof how Notice the storm is - 60 Miles from Radar Miles 60 Location Radar http://weather.gov Radar “Cone ofSilence” Radar “Cone Too close then can’tseetops Too close http://weather.gov Center Center of Radar Beam: 10,000 RADAR Beam Height RADAR Ruskin At a distance ft 15,000 ft http://weather.gov Use the Great Report: on Highway 41 on Highway north of hail5 milesRuskin ballsize through golf This HIL isSpotter TEL= Time,Method Location Event, TEL - 46A,at 4:05 PM I drove Method toReport http://weather.gov What Time Do YouHave? Tuesday,2 October 6:01 PM 6:01 http://weather.gov What toReport Tornadoes • • • are aware of any are aware if you damage Include debrisfor lookso ground, the with contact in be always may not a in funnel” “Condensation feature the in persistent and is sustained rotation Be http://weather.gov What toReport Funnel Clouds Funnel June 11, June 2017 Cape Coral Cape http://weather.gov From Wink Wink FromTV – July 6, 2017 6, July What toReport Waterspouts Longboat KeyLongboat – August 28, 2017 August http://weather.gov Ask yourself,isrotating? itviolently Is This aTornado? WFLA NBC cloud. to the ground, but it is a horizontal picture made itlook like itextended The viewing perspective in the left base of the storm. Shelf Cloud but is detached from It was a Roll Cloud, which is likea WTSP CBS http://weather.gov The RollCloud http://weather.gov I see a tornado to my northeast my to tornado a see I & 70 31 Highwaysof am in I intersection the at Arcadia Give best estimate of your location location of your estimate best Give Reporting Tornadoes AND the tornado location tornado ANDthe Spotter Tornado http://weather.gov • • Avoidor ”strong”to “heavy” describe Takes(most experienceoverpeople Estimating Estimating Wind Speed 60 50 40 30 - - - - 70 mph 60 mph 50 mph 40 mph Structuraldamage Down orsnapped trees; Healthy branches breaking Slightstructural damage; breaking Twigs or small branches Whole trees in motion - estimate) http://weather.gov Tree Damage • • • snapped? limbs numerous and/or down blown been trees many Have • down? blown limb or tree isolated Is it an Winds >60 mph mph 40 to50 over inwinds Trees do blowcan and http://weather.gov Wind combined weight of water in rain in rain of water weight combined Wind How Strong was the Wind? HowStrong was can cause 120 mph rated shingles to shingles rated mph 120 cause can Shingles are rated to 120 mph to 120 rated are Shingles fail at a lower wind speed wind alower at fail 80 MPH http://weather.gov How Strong was the Wind? was HowStrong Light weight, high profile vehicles vehicles profile high weight, Light in heavy rain moving at 50 MPH 50 at moving rain heavy in can flip due to weight of water water of weight to due flip can 50 MPH WTSP 10 Connects, Tampa Bay http://weather.gov • • are less important are less twigs or branches Verysmall etc. structures, lines, power poles, power to damage down, Treesblown being What toReport Wind Gusts or Damage or Gusts Wind http://weather.gov Structural Damage • • • Be Specific impacted comes first comes impacted Life/Safety of those of those Life/Safety homes damaged homes of number Rough one? newer or home mobile older Is it an off is roof house? or destroyed Is roof http://weather.gov Flooding Dangers http://weather.gov Flooding &FloodDamage Tampa07/24/2015 Sarasota Sarasota – 08/27/2017 • • • homes homes businesses? or Is watergetting into How is high oncars water How widespread http://weather.gov Hail Damage • • • • Any damage? Any objects common to size Compare axis longest of diameter Measure observed stone hail largest Report http://weather.gov • • • don’t know how big your marbles are marbles your big how know don’t we because hail size marble report Don’t bias less produce to tends objects, common to is to compare best Second ruler with to measure Best is Estimating Estimating Hail Size http://weather.gov Reporting DamageLightning Reporting • • • • • Any injuries or deaths? or injuries Any electronics? it damage Did outage? power a widespread it cause Did a fire? it cause Did only damage Report http://weather.gov Thunderstorms per Year per Thunderstorms Number of Days With With Days of Number http://weather.gov Lightning Capital of theWorld NASA5 - 2 - 2016 Lake Maracaibo in VenezuelainMaracaibo Lake days per year > 200 kilometer per year 233 flashes per square http://weather.gov We do not issue warnings for lightning for We warnings issue not do Florida Lightning immediatelyto shelter. closeenough to strike you!Move If youhearcan thunder, lightningis year each injuries 40 • Average and fatalities 9 • • • • • 2013: 4 dead, 22 2013: injured6 dead, 32 2014: injured6 dead, 17 2015: 2016 injured5 dead, 22 2017: : 9 dead,injured18 injured http://weather.gov Most atRisk Most http://weather.gov Most atRisk Most • • • at Risk Most camping or to beach, soccer,golf, going fish, boat, to Likes 20 Male - 29 http://weather.gov It isa The metal shell of or airplaneThe shella vehicle metal protect youin a vehicle can protect youcan protect from lightning MYTH that rubber tires http://weather.gov How LightningForms http://weather.gov High School Game in Orlando on 9/13/2013 on in Orlando Game School High GameStrike atFootballLightning Courtesy of UniversityHigh School http://weather.gov NFL and NCAA Take NFLand NCAA Lightning Seriously Lightning http://weather.gov Lightning Strikes FishingPole Strikes Lightning http://weather.gov Lightning Density in Lightning Density Florida Lee County averages about about averages County Lee Florida averages 1.4 million 1.4 averages Florida U.S. averages 23 million 23 U.S. averages 37,000 strikes year per strikes 37,000 http://weather.gov Private Severe Weather Reporting Line Report to NWS Ruskin Report - - - - Call when youobserve: 1 Tornadoes,waterspouts 2” per hour rain or flooding or rain hour 2” per MPH 50+ Winds Any size hail Any size - 800 - 282 - 1228 http://weather.gov Send usYourDamagePhotos trainings SKYWARNfuture Wefor them use may sites media social our We on them post may We you credit will to them to send Email an you give wewill and Call http://weather.gov your Thank you for volunteering for and your community! http://weather.gov Basic SKYWARN Training Training Overview • • • • • • Thunderstorm formation Thunderstorm Terms Safety and Hurricanes violent Large, thunderstorms VisualStrength Storm Clues tornadoes http://weather.gov Watch vs.Warning this storm • radar orhas beenreported • Warning but it isnotcertain • Watch The bad weather could happencouldThe badweather Find shelter if you are thepathshelterFind if youin of detected beenby weather has Bad (e.g. Tornado,etc.) , Hurricane, (e.g. Tornado,etc.) Hurricane, http://weather.gov What is aSevereThunderstorm?What 58 MPH Wind or Stronger58 MPHWind 50 KnotWind Can be either one or bothbe eitheroneCan the longestaxis measure alongAlways Size of a SizeQuarter or larger Hail1 Inch http://weather.gov How How Do Thunderstorms Form? Something to lift themoisture to lift Something vapor) (water Moisture Unstable Unstable Air - - - a fire to get it to burn hot toburn it to get a fire think of this as blowing oxygen on oxygen as think of this blowing match asalit this of think as gasoline this of think Three Three ingredients are needed http://weather.gov Atmospheric Instability Atmospheric Unstable = StormPotential Stable Sea Breeze Provides Lift Daylight Hours

Air circulates back offshore aloft and sinks to replace air Warmer land air moving inland at the surface rises

Cooler marine air H moves inland L High Pressure Low Pressure Localized Sea Breeze Circulations For Example: The complex coastline around Tampa Bay

Sea Breeze

Bay Breezes http://weather.gov Source of Lift: Sea Breeze Sea Lift: of Source http://weather.gov Colliding Colliding Thunderstorm Boundaries Outflow Can provide addition lift for new storms new for lift addition provide Can Another Source of Lift of Lift Source Another http://weather.gov Loop of Thunderstorm Outflow Loop ofThunderstorm Boundary http://weather.gov 3 Stage of Thunderstorm LifeCycle of Thunderstorm 3 Stage 3. 2. 1. Mature Stage Towering Cumulus Stage Dissipation Dissipation Stage http://weather.gov are referred to as an air of currents Rising Cumulus developsCumulus amoisture, Towering withsufficient combined updraft. When Towering CumulusTowering Stage Near Near Sun CityCenter http://weather.gov co anddowndraftupdraft and downdraft. rain The out causingof thecloud Moisturecondense will - existtogether. Mature Stage of aThunderstorm Stage Mature http://weather.gov weaken. weaken. to thunderstorm the causing updraft, the overcome eventually will downdraft The The Dissipation The Dissipation Stage http://weather.gov Radar Radar of Towering Cumulus Stage http://weather.gov Radar Radar of Towering Cumulus Stage http://weather.gov Radar Radar of MatureStage http://weather.gov Radar Radar Mature Cumulus Stage http://weather.gov Radar Radar of Dissipation Stage http://weather.gov Radar Radar of Dissipation Stage http://weather.gov Radar Radar of Dissipation Stage http://weather.gov storm storm updraft - - This is a lot of weight being held aloft by This the lotbeingheld isa of weight One inch of rain over one square mile over onesquare One inchofrain - - 145 million pounds million145 of water gallons 17 million Fast Facts http://weather.gov Non Severe Downdraft in Tampa Downdraft Non Severe http://weather.gov The ThunderstormDownburst Microburst Rain Foot Rain http://weather.gov The ShelfCloud http://weather.gov Copyright Chuck Palmer Is the observer in warm or cold air? cold or warm in Is observer the The ShelfCloud http://weather.gov Lake Okeechobee, FLOkeechobee, Lake on 2015 August Shelf Cloud http://weather.gov Lake Lake FL Alfred, 201131, March on Shelf Cloud Police Police Department Photo: Photo: Lake Alfred http://weather.gov LidoKeySarasota near Shelf Cloud – August 7, 2017 http://weather.gov • • • 20+ miles miles 20+ from storm Crisp, Crisp, anvil thick, defined Broad, top overshooting Persistent hard outline toclouds outline hard http://weather.gov 10 Look Look Storm At Main Tower - 20 miles 20 miles away - to clouds outlines - mushy mushy - Cauliflower appearance Cauliflower hard forcrisp, Look Soft and http://weather.gov Remember How Thunderstorms Form? Something to lift themoisture to lift Something vapor) (water Moisture Unstable Unstable Air - - - a fire to get it to burn hot toburn it to get a fire think of this as blowing oxygen on oxygen as think of this blowing match asalit this of think as gasoline this of think Three Three ingredients are needed http://weather.gov What makes different supercells makes What from ordinary thunderstorms? from ordinary The answeris Wind Shear http://weather.gov The Thunderstorm LifeCycle The Thunderstorm http://weather.gov and Speed Direction Wind Shear: Separates Updraft andDowndraftSeparates 3,000 ft, ft, mph 35 3,000 http://weather.gov Updraft in Strong Wind Strong in Updraft SPEED Shear http://weather.gov http://weather.gov Most Dangerous Time of Year? Time of Dangerous Most http://weather.gov http://weather.gov • • • Tornado Kissimmee 1998 Outbreak Florida’s Most Florida’s Deadly Tornado 260 injured 260 history in Florida deadliest killed, 42 22 February - 23 http://weather.gov Jan 17, 2016Sarasota F2 Tornado – 127 mph http://weather.gov Jan 17, 2016Sarasota F2 Tornado 2 injuries – 127 mph http://weather.gov Jan 17, 2016 2 fatalities, 4 injuries2 fatalities, Duette F2 Tornado – 127 mph http://weather.gov Tornado Stairs http://weather.gov What ifnoshelterisavailable? • • before the storms Seek shelterarrive Are storms heading toward your area? towardyour Are storms heading watch?Are youinatornado Take toa yourfamily family friendshouse or until the storm untilpassed has http://weather.gov Online training at trainingOnline Want to know more? to know Want weather.gov/ tampa / skywarn Florida Hurricanes [email protected] Hurricanes: When?

weather.gov/tampabay Question

What hurricane hazard has the greatest potential for loss of life and property?

• Flooding from Heavy Rain • Hurricane Wind • Storm Surge • Tornadoes U.S. Hurricane Fatalities 1963-2015 Water is Heavy Moving Water can be Deadly

3 ft 1 cubic yard of water weighs 1,700 pounds!

3 ft 3 ft Radar Loop Cedar Key Surge Before 2005 Hurricane Katrina After 2005 Hurricane Katrina’s Storm Surge Storm Surge can be Devastating

2008 Hurricane Ike, near Galveston, TX 2004 Hurricane Ivan, I-10, Pensacola, FL Our Barrier Islands Are No Different

Fort Myers Beach

St Pete Beach St Armands Circle

Cedar Key

Google Maps Flooding from heavy rain is the second leading cause of fatalities in a Flood Damage from Hurricane Matthew Pinellas County in 2012 T.S. Debby Don’t Drive in Flooded Roads

A. Ahrens J. Cavanaugh

A. Von Eschen Hurricane Irma - Florida Lee County Storm Shelter Situation Overview Tampa Bay Area Hurricane Irma WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

. Track still shows a northerly turn Saturday Night, but forecast cone still shows a Gulf storm is possible which would be our worst case scenario . A 3-6 hour difference in when Hurricane Irma turns north would result in major changes to local impacts . Most people will not experience the eye wall, but some will. Prepare as if the eye wall will hit you

11/14/2017 2:41 PM fb.com/NWSTampaBay @NWSTampaBay weather.gov/tampabay NWS Tampa Bay Tropical Products Most Likely Time of Arrival Tampa Bay Area Hurricane Irma WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE . The most likely time of arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds: . Fort Myers - late Saturday night . Tampa & I-4 corridor – Sunday morning . Cedar Key – Sunday afternoon. . However, these areas could see Tropical Storm Force Winds arrive 12 hours earlier depending on the exact path.

11/14/2017 2:41 PM fb.com/NWSTampaBay @NWSTampaBay weather.gov/tampabay NWS Tampa Bay Tropical Products Potential Storm Surge Flooding Tampa Bay Area Hurricane Irma WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Note: This graphic shows where storm surge inundation could occur in any one location. It . Color Scale depicts a reasonable worst case scenario. . Red = 9-15 feet AGL . Orange = 6-9 feet AGL . Yellow = 4-6 feet AGL

. Timing: Storm surge inundation could begin as early as Sunday evening; greatest at Sunday night/early Monday morning high tide

. Expect a 12 hour event, longer directly at the coast

11/14/2017 2:41 PM fb.com/NWSTampaBay @NWSTampaBay weather.gov/tampabay NWS Tampa Bay Tropical Products The Big Blowout – Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Area Hurricane Irma – 4-7 feet below normal tides WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

11/14/2017 2:41 PM fb.com/NWSTampaBay @NWSTampaBay weather.gov/tampabay NWS Tampa Bay Tropical Products Jacksonville Storm Surge Tampa Bay Area Hurricane Irma WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

11/14/2017 2:41 PM fb.com/NWSTampaBay @NWSTampaBay weather.gov/tampabay NWS Tampa Bay Tropical Products Satellite/Radar View Tampa Bay Area Hurricane Irma WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Max winds 125 mph and moving west northwest at 9 mph

225 miles SSE FMY

11/14/2017 2:41 PM fb.com/NWSTampaBay @NWSTampaBay weather.gov/tampabay NWS Tampa Bay Tropical Products NWS Ruskin Operations Tampa Bay Area Hurricane Irma WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

11/14/2017 2:41 PM fb.com/NWSTampaBay @NWSTampaBay weather.gov/tampabay NWS Tampa Bay Tropical Products Hurricane Irma Marco Island Tampa Bay Area Hurricane Irma WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

11/14/2017 2:41 PM fb.com/NWSTampaBay @NWSTampaBay weather.gov/tampabay NWS Tampa Bay Tropical Products Irma Wind Damage Irma Wind Damage Power Outages

13 million without power 2017 Hurricane Irma - Tornadoes

7 power poles snapped just north of Lakeland Evacuations

weather.gov/tampabay Evacuation Called for Only 2 Reasons

1. For People in the Storm Surge Zone

Hurricane Charley - 2004 Motorists fleeing Pinellas County on the Howard Franklin Bridge

weather.gov/tampabay Evacuation Called for Only 2 Reasons

2. For People in Manufactured Homes

weather.gov/tampabay Hurricane Dangers - Evacuation

Motorists trapped on I-26 as Houston as Hurricane Hurricane Floyd approached Rita approached in 2004 Charleston, SC in 1999 Evacuate 10s of miles, not 100s of miles

weather.gov/tampabay Top 5 Most Difficult Hurricane Evacuations according to Donald Lewis, VP of ATKINS at the 2012 National Hurricane Conference

5. Southeast Florida 4. New York City / New Jersey Coast 3. Delmarva Peninsula (DE, MD, VA) 2. Tampa Bay Area, FL

1. Southwest Florida

weather.gov/tampabay Hurricane Irma Impacted 3 of the 5 Most Difficult Places to Evacuate

6.5 million Floridians evacuated

Nexusnewsfeed.com weather.gov/tampabay The NWS is Looking for Ambassadors

148 Who Can Become a WRN Ambassador? http://weather.gov/tampa/wrn

• ALFs and SNFs • Housing Associations • Churches • Businesses large and small • Non-profit and non-governmental organizations • TV, Radio, and Print media • Academia The Sanctuary at Longboat Key Club • Any organization across all levels Community Assoc., Inc of government

149 Example Preparedness Materials Sent to Ambassador to Share with Group

Simple 2-page Emergency Plan Info Graphics to Share

weather.gov/tampabay A Few of our Local Ambassadors

• WFTX-TV Fox 4 • NBC 2 • U.S. Central Command at MacDill AFB • Port Tampa Bay • Saint Pete Astronomy Club • University of South Florida • Valencia Lakes Home Owners Association • Numerous Clubs NWS Tampa Bay Social Media

http://weather.gov/tampabay

@NWSTampaBay

NWSTampaBay

NWSTampa

http://weather.gov/tampa/wrn http://weather.gov