Population Association of

2005 Annual Meeting Program

June 4 – 5, 2005

Kobe

2-1 Rokkodai, Nada-ku

Kobe 658-8501 Japan

TEL.+81-78-881-1212

President

ATO, Makoto

Chair, Organizing Committee

TAKAHASHI, Shinichi Program Summary

Saturday 4 June ０９：００ Registration ０９：３０～１２：３０ Theme Session 1: Population Decline and Society from Regional Perspective( 2F 232 ) General Session 1 3F 324 General Session 2 3F 320 General Session 3 2F 230

１２：３０～１３：３０ Lunch Break １２：３０～１３：３０ PAJ Board of Director’s Meeting １３：３０～１４：００ Presidential Lecture ( 2F 232 ) １４：００～１４：１０ Welcome Address from the Host Organization ( 2F 232 ) １４：１０～１５：００ General Membership Meeting ( 2F 232 )

１５：００～１８：００ Symposium: Future of the Japanese Baby Boom Generation ( 2F 232 ) １８：１５～２０：００ Welcome Reception ( Academic Hall 3F Restaurant “Sakura” )

Sunday 5 June ０８：３０ Registration ０９：００～１２：３０ Theme Session 2: Emergence of Lowest-low Fertility and Policy Responses in Some Asian Countries ( 2F 232 ) General Session 4 ( 3F 324 ) General Session 5 ( 3F 320 ) General Session 6 ( 2F 230 )

１２：３０～１３：３０ Lunch Break

１３：３０～１７：００ Theme Session 3: Diversification of Union Formation ( 2F 232 ) General Session 7 ( 3F 324 ) General Session 8 ( 3F 320 ) General Session 9 ( 2F 230 )

2 Population Association of Japan 2005 Annual Meeting Program

Saturday 4 June ９：３０～１２：３０

9 : 00 Registration

Theme Session 1 (Room No. 232) Population Decline and Society from Regional Perspective

Organizer / Chair：ISHIKAWA, Yoshitaka（） Discussant：INOUE, Takashi（） ABE, Takashi（Japan Women’s University）

OOBA, Tamotsu ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) Relationships (correlation efficients, slopes, and Intercepts) Between Net Migration Rates (prefecture, sex, 1-year age, and era ) and GDP Growth Rates YAMAGAMI, Tatsuya ( ) Changing Spatial Structure of Metropolitan Areas in the Era of Population Decline KOIKE, Shiro ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) NAKAGAWA, Satoshi ( ) Where is Population Decreasing ? Population Change at Micro-Scale ESAKI, Yuji ( ) ARAI, Yoshio ( Tokyo University ) NAGANUMA, Sae ( Tokyo University ) Population Stagnation and Aging in the Suburbs of the Metropolitan Areas in Japan YOSHIOKA, Shigeru ( ) The Characteristic of Population Movement of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

3 General Session 1 (Room No. 324)

Chair : HAYASE, Yasuko (Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO, ret.) NISHIKAWA, Yuiko ( ) Ageing in India: Its Regional Differentials and Reflection Wen-fong Lu ( Ottawa Social Science Research Centre, Canada ) The Impact of Canadian Population Aging on Fiscal Consequences KURODA, Toshio ( Japanese Organization for International Cooperation in Family Planning ) Population Ageing and the Role of Japan: The Greatest Population Dynamics and Japan

Chair : WAKABAYASHI, Keiko ( Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology ) MATSUSHITA, Keiichiro ( ) Changes in Population and Household Composition: Demographic Profile of Galok, Malaysia, from 1971 to 2000 UTSUMI, Kenju ( University of Aizu Junior College Division ) Israel and Population KASAHARA, Hiroyoshi ( Reitaku University ) Analysis of Pension Policy Based on Change of Population Composition (Japan, U.S., and China)

General Session 2 (Room No. 320)

Chair : ISHI, Yoshikuni ( Josai University ) SURUGA, Terukazu ( Kobe University) Changing Population Structure in Mongolia KAMATA, Osamu ( ) Labor Migration and Land Settlement for Japanese-Brazilian Workers Feng, Wenmeng (Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology ) The current situation of Internal Migrants in China: Research based on the investigation in Beijing and Shanghai

Chair : HAMA, Hidehiko ( , ret. ) KURITA, Kyosuke ( ) Analysis of Migration in Thailand: Panel Gravity Analysis using Provincial Data ITO, Kaoru (Gifu Shotoku-Gakuen University ) Determinants of Elderly Long-Distance Migration in Japan NAGAI, Yasuo ( Chuo University, ret. ) Birth and Growth Process of Baby Boom Generation: Analysis that Centers on Demographic Shift

4 General Session 3 (Room No. 230)

Chair : OKADA, Minoru ( Chuo University ) MORIIZUMI, Rie ( ) Predictive Validity and Structure of the Intended Number of Children in Japan MITA, Fusami ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) IWASAWA, Miho ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) IKENOUE, Masako ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) Change in Couple's Meeting Place and Recent Decline in First Marriage Rates FUKUDA, Setsuya ( ) A Comparative Analysis of First Marriage in Europe

Chair : TSUYA, Noriko ( ) NAGASE, Nobuko ( Ochanomizu University ) Comparison of Women’s Work and Child Bearing in Seoul, Beijing and Japan: With Special Attention to Opportunity Cost of Care Givers and Kin Network Mei Hsu ( National Taipei University ) Why the Fertility Rate and Female Labor Force Participation Rate are so Low in Taiwan? CHITOSE, Yoshimi ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) Grand Parents as Child Care Providers: Intergenerational Relationship Between Adult Children and Paternal, Maternal Parents

12 : 30 – 13 : 30 Lunch Break

12 : 30 – 13 : 30 PAJ Board of Director’s Meeting

13 : 30 – 14 : 00 Presidential Address (Room No.232)

14 : 00 – 14 : 10 Welcome Address (Room No.232)

14 : 10 – 15 : 00 General Membership Meeting (Room No.232)

5 Saturday 4 June １５：００～１８：００

Symposium (Room No.232) Future of the Japanese Baby Boom Generation

Organizer：TAKAHASHI, Shinichi ( Kobe University ) Chair ：TAKAHASHI, Shigesato ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) Discussant：WATANABE, Machiko ( Meikai University ) ABE, Takashi ( Japan Women’s University )

OSHIO, Takashi ( Kobe University ) Working Style OKAMURA, Kiyoko (Tokyo Woman's Christian University ) Family Formation ITO, Kaoru ( Gifu Shotoku-Gakuen University ) Living and Residential Arrangement

18 : 15 – 20 : 00 Welcome Party (Academic Hall 3F Restaurant “Sakura” )

6 Population Association of Japan 2005 Annual Meeting Program

Sunday 5 June ９：００～１２：３０

8 : 30 Registration

Theme Session 2 (Room No.232) Emergence of Lowest-low Fertility and Policy Responses in Some Asian Countries

Organizer：KONO, Shigemi ( Reitaku University ) Chair ：TSUYA, Noriko ( Keio University ) Discussant：INOUE, Shunichi ( , ret. ) SATO, Ryuzaburo ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )

MOTOMI, Beppu ( Reitaku University ) Tempo Effects of Lowest-low Fertility in Selected Asian Countries SUZUKI, Toru ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) Lowest-low Fertility in Korea KOJIMA, Katsuhisa ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) Declining Fertility and Social Security Policy in Taiwan KOJIMA, Hiroshi ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) Fertility-Related Attitudes in East Asia SASAI, Tsukasa ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) The Determinants of Fertility Decline and Population Policy in Asian Low-Fertility Regions NOGAMI, Hiroki ( Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO ) The Role of Social Capital in Policy Response for Low Fertility Rates in Asia

7 General Session 4 (Room No. 324)

Chair：KITO, Hiroshi ( ) KUROSU, Satomi ( Reitaku University ) Regional Diversity of Marriage and Fertility in Early-Modern Japan OKADA, Aoi ( ) Regional Diversity of Hpusehold Structure in Early-Modern Japan WASHIZAKI, Shuntaro (JSPS Research Fellow ) A Study of the Relation between Migration and Rent in the Post-town of Toride:1787-1836

Chair：SAITO, Osamu ( Hitotsubashi University ) HAMANO, Kiyoshi ( Kansai University ) Demographic Profile of Servants in Late Tokugawa Kyoto City KAWAGUCHI, Hiroshi ( Tezukayama University ) Construction of a Database System for Analyzing the Japanese Temple Death Registers IKE, Shuichiro ( Teikyo University ) Diffusionist Revisited

General Session 5 (Room No. 320)

Chair：IKEGAMI, Kiyoko ( UNFPA Tokyo Office ) REYILA, Maimaiti ( Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology ) Reproductive Health of Married Women in XinJiang China Song-Bing ( Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology ) An Exploration on the Role of Family Planning in Family Health in China’s Rural Area OHASHI, Keita ( Montreal University ) Effects of Triple Threats in Southern Africa against Reproductive Health

Chair：SAOTOME, Sachiko ( Fureai Yokohama Hospital ) ARYAL, Nabin ( Hitotsubashi University ) Who are the Birth Limiters in Nepal ? A Case Study of the Determinants of Sterilization in Rural Kathmandu SAWADA, Kayo ( JSPS, Ochanomizu University ) The Politics of "Family Planning" in Okinawa under U.S. Military Occupation, 1945-1972 ANDOH, Ayuta ( Chuo University ) Below-Replacement Fertility and Population Policy (1) 8 General Session 6 (Room No. 230)

Chair：EMI, Koichi ( Hitotsubashi University ) KANEKO, Ryuichi ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) A Demographic Analysis of the Process to Lowest-low Fertility in Japan IWASAWA, Miho ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) Raymo, M. James ( University of Wisconsin at Madison ) Bumpass, Larry ( University of Wisconsin at Madison ) Unmarried Cohabitation in Japan OGAWA, Naohiro ( Nihon University ) Economic Uncertainties and Fertility Change

Chair：YAMAGUCHI, Mitoshi ( Kobe University ) Zhao Tong ( Tokushima University ) Fertility Choice and Capital Accumulation in Two Sector Model of Economic Growth OHTSUKA, Tomomi ( Nihon University ) Economic Grouth and Population change in Japan MATSUKURA, Rikiya ( Nihon University ) Nemoto, Kazuo ( Statistical Research and Training Institute, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications ) Micro-level Analysis of the Labor Market Based on Various Rounds of the Employment Status Survey

12 : 30 – 13 : 30 Lunch Break

9 Sunday 5 June １３：３０～１７：００

Theme Session 3 (Room No. 232) Diversification of Union Formation

Organizer：ANZO, Shinji ( Meiji University ) Chair ：KAMANO, Saori ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) Discussant：ATO, Makoto ( ) KATO, Akihiko ( Meiji University )

KAMATA, Kenji ( Meiji University ) International Comparison, viewing from "Gender system", "family and Reproductive behavior" TAKEZAWA, Junko ( Ochanomizu University ) Cohabitation in Seoul, Korea Lee, Su Jim ( Ochanomizu University ) Determinants of Marriage Selection: Focused on the Gender Differences Raymo, M. James (University of Wisconsin ) IWASAWA, Miho ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) Bumpass, Larry ( University of Wisconsin at Madison ) Recent Trends and Differentials in Marital Dissolution in Japan TSUYA, Noriko ( Keio University ) Changes in the Patterns of Union Formation in Japan: An Analysis of the 2004 JGGS Data

10 General Session 7 (Room No. 324)

Chair：INOUE, Shunichi ( Nihon University, ret. ) ISHIKAWA, Akira ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) The Impact of International Migration on the Future Population of Japan IHARA, Hajime ( Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Research Organization of Information and Systems ) Population Projection of Japan by Monthly Cohort Method in Preliminary Calculation TRUKHIN, Mikhail ( Waseda University ) The Future Population Projections by Russian Population MURATA, Hisashi ( Yamamura Gakuin College ) Estimate of Population by Neural Network Model

Chair：OKAZAKI, Yoichi ( Nihon University, ret. ) KATO, Hisakazu ( Meiji University ) Simultaneous Equations Model of Birth and Marriage, and the Monte carlo Simulation ISHII, Futoshi ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) Population Momentum in the Multiregional Population Models NAKAZAWA, Minato ( Gunma University ) Virtual “Paradise”: A Microsimulation of Paradise Population in Solomon Islands

General Session 8 (Room No. 320)

Chair：SAGAZA, Haruo ( Waseda University, ret. ) ISHIKAWA, Yoshitaka ( Kyoto University ) Why Does the Number of Foreign Residents in Japan Differ Between the Population Census and the Registration Statistics ? TERADA, Yoshihide (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications ) Some Changes on Tabulation of Results of 2005 Population Census Considering the Recent Change of Social Economic Conditions YAMADA, Shigeru ( ) Bias of Result of Household Surveys on Employment and Housing

Chair：OBAYASHI, Senichi ( Population Census Division, Statistic Bureau ) TABATA, Tomoko ( Hokkaido University ) 2002 Russian Population Census: Characteristics of Its Major Results NAKAGAWA, Satoshi ( Kobe University ) Migration in Japan before the Second World War HIROSIMA, Kiyosi ( Shimane University ) Is Life Expectancy Overestimated? : Total Vital Rate Theorem Applied to Mortality 11 General Session 9 (Room No. 230)

Chair：OHBUCHI, Hiroshi ( Chuo University ) SATO, Ryuzaburo ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) SHIRAISHI, Noriko ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) BANDO, Rieko ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ) Fifteen Years since "1.57 Shock": A Review of Fertility-related Policies in Japan HARA, Toshihiko ( Hokkaido ) Socio-Economic Factors of Fertility Decline in Hokkaido SAKAI, Hiromichi ( Saitama Prefectural University ) The Relationship of Municipality Mergers and the Population Age Structure KIMURA, Yoshio (Hyogo University ) Why the TFR of Izena island is high ?

Chair：KANEKIYO, Hiroyuki ( Meiji University ) KONO, Michikazu ( Himeji City Office ) Political Issues of Immigration in Japan SHIRAI, Izumi ( Keio University ) Marital-Status Differentials in Living Arrangements of the Elderly in Japan MASUDA, Mikito ( ) The Effect of Population Density on Resource and Environment

12