Document of The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
c4fL- i
Public Disclosure Authorized S- '-4+A
ReportNo. 7059-CHA
STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT
Public Disclosure Authorized CHINA
NORTHERN IRRIGATION PROJECT
February 12, 1988 Public Disclosure Authorized
Public Disclosure Authorized Country Department III Agriculture Operations Division Asia Regional Office
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by redpients only in theperfonnance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World 3ank authorization. CURRENCYEQUIVALENTS
Currency Unit - Yuan (Y) US$1.00 - Y 3.7 Y 1.00 - US$0.27 (As of December 1987)
FISCAL YEAR
January 1 to December 31
WEIGHTS AND MEASURES
1 meter (m) - 3.28 feet (ft) 1 kilometer (km) - 0.62 miles 1 hectare (ha) - 2.47 acres 1 mu - 0.067 ha 1 ton (t) - 1,000 kg - 2,205 pounds 1 kg - 2.2 pounds
PRINCIPAL ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS USED
ABC - Agricultural Bank of China ATM - Agricultural Trade Market CCIEC - China Chemical Import & Export Corporation CMC - China Machinery Corporation CNTIC - China National Technical Import Corporation DAP - Diammonium phosphate DCA - Development Credit Agreement ERR -Economic Rate of Return ICB - International Competitive Bidding LCB - Local Competitive Bidding MOF - Ministry of Finance LIB - Limited International Bidding MWREP - Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power NMWRB - Nei Monggol Water Resources Bureau NPV - Net Present Value NXWRB - Ningxia Water Resources Bureau O & M - Operation and Maintenance OMM - Operation and Maintenance Mannual PCBC - People's Construction Bank of China PCC - Project Coordinating Committee PMO's - Project Management Offices SMC's - Supply and Marketing Cooperatives SPC - State Planning Commission WRB - Water Resources Bureau FOR OMCIAL USE ON'LY CHINA
NORTHERN IRRIGATIONPROJECT
Credit and Prolect Summary
Borrower People'sRepublic of China
Beneficiaries Nei Monggol and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Regional Governments
Credit Amount: SDR 72.7 million (US$ 103 million equivalent)
Credit Terms: Standard,with 35 years maturity.
Relending Terms: From Governmentto Nei Monggol and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Regions: 20 years, includingfive years of grace, with interest at 4% and commitmentfee of 0.5% p.a.
Project Obiectives and Description: The main objectivesof the proposed project are (a) to increase the efficiencyand profitability of agricultural production in Nei Monggol and (b) to alleviate absolute poverty in Ningxia. In the Hetao area of Nei Monggol, the project would rehabilitateand complete existing drains and canals serving 210,000ha of presently low-yieldingcropland and marginal grazing area. In the Yinnan area of Ningxia, it would upgrade and complete irrigationand drainage works on 22,000 ha and open up 14,200 ha of newly irrigatedland. By ensuring a more reliable water supply, providing agricultural inputs such as fertilizerand plastic mulch, and strergthening extensionservices, the project would expand productionof wheat, corn, oilseed, sugar beet, fruits, fodder crops, and livestock.A resettlementcomponent in Ningxia would relocate 11,000 poor farm families on newly irrigatedland and provide infrastructureand support services.The project would also provide local and overseas training for technicaland managerial staff, farmers, and extensionworkers.
At full development,annual incrementaloutput is expected to include 133,000 tons of wheat, 181,000 tons of corn and other grains, 38,000 tons of oilseeds,over 600,000 tons of sugar beet, fruits and vegetables,over 12,000 tons of lamb and other meats, 2,300 tons of wool, and additional quantitiesof timber and animal hides. The total incremental output value will be about US$93 million annually.The project would improve income levels and living standardsfor about 122,600 households,including 96,300 and 15,500 families currentlyresiding in Hetao and Yinnan respectivelyand an addit'onal11,000 families to be relocated in Yinnan. No major risks are anticipated.
This documenthas a restricteddistribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their offcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorizFtion. -il-
Estimated Costs: Local Foreign Total --- (US$ million------H.tao: Drainage & Irrigation 73.6 38.3 111.9 Buildings 3.0 1.3 4.3 Machinery, Equip. and agricultural materials 2.9 16.6 19.6 Training & Tech. Assist. 1.2 0.9 2.1 Engineering/Management 2.5 0.3 2.8 Base Cost 83.5 57.1 140.6 Physical Contingency 3.1 2.3 5.4 Price Contingency 4.4 6.6 11.0 Total 91.0 66.0 157.0
Yinnan: Drainage & Irrigation 24.9 20.3 45.2 Resettlement 8.0 8.0 16.0 Machinery, Equip. and agricultural materials 0 4.1 4.1 Training & Tech. Assist. 0.5 0.5 1.0 Engineering/Management 1.8 0.2 2.0 Yinbei Studies 1.9 0.8 2.7 Base Cost 37.0 33.8 70.8 Physical Contingency 1.6 1.5 3.1 Price Contingency 1.2 1.8 3.0 Total 39.8 37.1 76.9
Grand Total Project 130.0 103.0 234.0
Financing Plan:
Hetao: IDA 0 66 66 Central Government 11 0 11 Regional Government 80 0 80
91 66 157
Yinnan: IDA 0 37 37 Central Go ernment /a 0 Regional Government 40 0 40 40 37 77 Estimated Disbursements:
IDA FY 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Hetao: Annual 2.6 10.4 14.7 16.1 14.6 6.4 1.2 Cumulative 2.6 13.0 27.7 43.8 58.4 64.8 66.0
Yinnan: Annual 2.6 8.4 11.6 9.7 4.7 - - Cumulative 2.6 11.0 22.6 32.3 37.0 - -
Project: Annual 5.2 18.8 26.3 25.8 19.3 6.4 1.2 Cumulative 5.2 24.0 50.3 76.1 95.4 101.8 103.0
Economic rate of return: Hetao: 21% Yinnan: 17% Overall Project: 20%
/a: Provides indirect support through the "Three Xi" Commission. -iii-
CHINA NORTHERN IRRIGATION PRWOECT
Table of Contents Page I. BACKGROUND 1
A. Introduction 1 B. Agriculture and Water Resources in China I C. Sectoral Objectives and Bank Operations 4 D. Rationale for IDA Involvement 5
II. THE PROJECT AREAS 6
A. Location 6 B. Climate 6 C. Topography 7 D. boils 7 E. Farm Size, Land Usie, and Population 8 F. Present Irrigation and Drainage Facilities 9 G. Regional Irrigation Agencies 10 H. Infrastructure and Support Services 12
III. THE PROJECT 15
A. Project Objectives and Relation to Sector 15 B. Project Description 15 C. Project Features in Nei Monggol 17 D. Project Features in Ningxia 20 E. Water Supply, Demand and Quality 23 F. Status of Design 23 G. Implementation Schedule 24 H. Cost Estimates 24 I. Financing 26 J. Procurement 26 K. Disbursements 29 L. Accounts and Audits 30 M. Environmental Effects 30
IV. PROJECT ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT 31 A. Project Coordinating Committees and Management Offices 31 B. Financial Arrangements 33 C. Execution of Project Works 34 D. Operation and Maintenance 34 E. Management of Production Activities 35 F. Project Launch Workshop 36 G. Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting 36
This report is based on the findings of a preappraisal mission in June 1987 and an appraisal mission in September 1987. Members of the preappraisal mission were L. S. Tay, J. Doolette (Bank/IDA), P. Harrell and A. Piazza (Consultants). The appraisal mission comprised L. S. Tay, P. Harrell and A. Piazza. -iv-
V. PRODUCTION, MARKETS, KA D PRICES 37
A. Production 37 B. Markets 40 C. Prices 42
VI. PRODUCTION, BENEFITS, AND RISKS 45
A. Production and Benefits 45 B. Farm Incomes 45 C. Cost and Rent Recovery 46 D. Economic Analysis 47 E. Project Risks 49
VII. AGREEMENTS TO BE REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION 49
TABLES IN THE TEXT Table 3.' - Project Cost Summary 25 Table 3.2 - Procurement Arrangements 29 Table 5.1 - Crop Areas, Yields and Production 38 Table 5.2 - Regional and National Annual Net Trade in Principal Project Outputs 41 Table 5.3 - Prices for Selected Inputs and Outputs 43 Table 6.1 - Summary of Rate of Return Analysis 48
ANNEXES
1. Background Data: Table 1 - Basic Statistics (Hetao) Table 2 - Basic Statistics (Yinnan) Table 3 - Climatic Data (Hetao & Yinnan) Table 4 - Irrigation Schedules and Quantities (Hetao & Yinnan)
2. Cost Data: Table 1 - Cost Summary (Hetao) Table 2 - Expenditure Schedule (Hetao) Table 3 - Expected Price Increases (Hetao) Table 4 - Cost Estimates for Trunk Drain and Canal (Hetao) Table 5 - Cost Estimates for D & I Network Improvement and On-farm Works (Hetao) Table 6 - Estimates for Machinery, Equipment & Materials (Hetao) Table 7 - Cost Summary (Yinnan) Table 8 - Expenditure Schedule (Yinnan) Table 9 - Expected Price Increases (Yinnan) Table 10- Estimates for Civil and On-farm Wor1ks (Yinnan) Table 11- Detailed Estimates for Settlement (Yinnan) Table 12- Estimates for Machinery, Equipment and Materials (Yinnan) Table 13- Disbursement Schedule (Hetao & Yinnan) Table 14- Training and Technical Assistance (Hetao) Table 15- Training and Technical Assistance (Yinnan) - V
Table 16 - Cost Estimatesand ExpenditureSchedule for Yinbei Studies (Yinnan) Table 17 - Cost Estimatesfor AgriculturalComponent (Hetao) Table 18 - Key Honitoring Indicators (Hetao) Table 19 - Key Monitoring Indicators (Yinnan)
3. Financial and EconomicAnalysis Table 1 - Farmgate Prices for Major Inputs and Outputs Table 2 - Selected ConversionFactors Table 3 - Crop Budget at Full Development(Hetao) Table 4 - Crop Budget at Full Development(Lift Irrigation,Yinnan) Table 5 - Fruit Tree Budget (Yinnan) Table 6 - Farm Models Table 7 - Rent and Cost Recovery Table 8 - Economic Costs and Benefits (Hetao) Table 9 - Economic Costs and Benefits (Jinyintan,Yinnan) Table 10- Economic Costs and Benefits (Lift Irrigation,Yinnan) Table 11- SensitivityAnalysis
4. EnvironmentalImpact Studies of the WuliangshuhaiLake (Hetao)
5. Ningxia ResettlementComponent
6. Related Documents and Data in the Project File
Charts
1. Nei Honggol IrrigationAgencies 2. Ningxia IrrigationAgencies 3. Nei Monggol: Organizationfor Project Management 4. Ningxia: Organizationfor ProjectManagement
Figures
Figure 1 - Implementation Schedule
Maps
IBRD Map No.20286 - Nei Monggol - Ningxia Hui Autonomous Regions IBRD Map No.20287 - Hetao Componet IBRD Map No.20288 - Yinnan Component CHINA
NORTHERN IRRIGATIONPROJECT
I. BACKGROUND
A. Introduction
1.1 The Government of China has requestedBank Group assistance in xinancing a project to improve and expand irrigatedareas along the upper reaches of the Yellow River in the Nei Monggol and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Regions. In the Hetao area of Nei Monggol, the project would improve drainage on 163,000ha of low-yieldingcropland and extend the irrigationnetwork to an additional47,000 ha of saline wasteland. In the Yinnan area of Ningxia, it would provide irrigation to 14,200 ha of presentlyuncultivated land and upgrade and complete irrigationand drainage works on another 22,000 ha. The project would expand productionof wheat, corn, oilseed, sugar beet, fruits, fodder crops, and livestock,primarily sheep and cattle. It would supply fertilizers,plastic mulch and breeding stock and would strengthen research and extension services. The project's training and technical assistance componentwould include short courses and overseas study tours for project management staff and demonstrationand training activities for farmers and extensionworkers. A resettlement componentwould provide housing, agriculturalmachinery and inputs, electricity,water supply, roads, and social services to 11,000 poor farm families who would be relocatedonto the newly Irrigatedland in Yinnan. The prime objectiveof project activitiesin Nei Monggol would be to make agriculturalproduction more efficient and profitable. In Ningxia, it would be to alleviateabsolute poverty.
B. Agricultureand Water Resources in China
AgricultureSector
1.2 Agriculturein China, includingcrops, livestock,forestry and fisheries,provides sustenanceto over one billion people, is a major source of income for some 190 million farm families,and accounts for about 35% of the country'sGDP. Only about 137 million of China's 960 million ha are arable. Farming systems are intensivewith large inputs of labor, chemical and organic fertilizers,and water. Nearly half of the cropped area is irrigated. Food grains occupy about 70% of the crop land and account for about one-thirdof total agricultural outout. This intensivesystem of food production has allowed China to meet the basic food requirementsof its population,about 22% of the world's total, from less than 11% of the world's arable land.
1.3 Major revisionsin farm policies since 1979, most importantly,a shift from collective to household-managedfarming and substantial increasesin farm prices, have led to rapid growth and diversification in agriculturalproduction. The system of contractingout collectively-ownedland and equipment to individualhouseholds has given farmers more flexibilityin determiningwhat crops to grow, how to grow them, and where to market their output. Results have been -2-
dramatic: production increasedby 10% per year over the period 1980- 85 in comparisonwith an average of 3% per year in the preceding 23 years, Grain output reached a record 407 million tons in 1984, 34% greater than in 1978, despite a reduction in area sown to grain.
1.4 In 1985, the Governmentbegan a new phase of reform, replacing mandatory procurementquotas with voluntarycontracts, adjusting procurementprices, and greatly enlarging the role of the market. These measures, and the price fluctuationsresulting from them, contributedto a decline in grain and cotton outplt and hectarage &s farmers shifted productioninto higher-pricedcash crops and livestock. Grain productionfell from the 1984 high of 407 million tons to 379 in 1985 and 391 in 1986. Objectivesfor agriculture during the 7th Five-year Plan (1986-1990)are to maintain per capita grain consumptionat current levels while continuingto diversify the overall output structure to accommodatechanging consumer preferences. This means increasingfood grain output to 425 million tons by 1990 to match populationgrowth, boosting productionof fruits,vegetables, meat, poultry, fish, and cash crops, and expandingoutput of processed products. To achieve sector growth, Chinese planners, on the one hand, are calling for technologyimprovements and maintainingsown area at current levels, and, on the other, are supportinga series of systemic reforms which include: (a) creating a regulatoryframework consisting of price, taxation,credit, and legal mechanismsto guide development of the rural economy; (b) allowing diverse forms of enterprise ownership and managementto encourage growth of rural agro-processing, transport,and commerce; (c) reducing the scope of contract procurement,reducing consumer subsidies,and enlarging the role of the market; and (d) establishinglegal guaranteesto farmers regarding land use rights and ownershipof assets.
Water ResourcesDevelopment
1.5 China's water resourcesare limited and unevenly distributed. About 45% of China's total land area is located in regions with less than 400 mm annual rainfall,mostly in the north, west and northwest. Regions with more than 800 mm, primarily in the east and southeast, account for one-thirdof China's arable land and about one-half of its population. About two-thirdsof China's land area, but only one-sixth of its surface flow volume, occur north of the Changjiang (Yangtze River). In an effort to make more efficientuse of scarce water resourcesand to solve China's peremnialproblems of drought, flood and famine, the Governmentsince 1949 has supportedmajor investments in irrigationand flood controlworks. Total irrigatedarea expanded from about 16 million ha in 1949 to a current figure of about 47 million ha, of which about 90% is from surface sources and 10% from groundwater. China's irrigatedareas, which have an estimated productivitytwice that of rainfed areas, account for about two-thirds of total grain productionand three-fourthsof total output of commercialcrops. The expansionof irrigationfacilities has been a major factor in the increase in grain productionfrom about 164 million tons in 1952 to around 400 million tons by the mid-1980s. However, lack of adequate control structuresand the poor conditionof many on-farm works limit irrigationefficiency, which ranges from 30 to 550 for surface water irrigationsystems./l Inadequate investment in constructionand maintenanceof drainage systems has acted as a further constraint to productivityover much of the existing irrigated area.
Water ResourcesAgencies
1.6 The Ministry of Water Resourcesand Electric Power (MWREP) oversees all activities in the water resourcesand electric power sectors, includingplanning, design, construction,and operationof water and power developmentprojects of regional importance. MW2EP has 14 departments,four of them technicaldepartments specific to the water and power sectors (Water Management,Irrigation and Drainage, ElectricityProduction, and Rural Electrification)and the other ten functionaldepartments, such as Planning,Labor and Wages, and Finance, with separatewater and power sectionswithin each. MWREP also directly administersinstitutions of higher education,agencies responsiblefor construction,research, and design, and regional commissionsfor power and water resources. The six river basin commissions--whichinclude the Yellow River Commission--areprimarily responsiblefor design and regulationof large irrigationand flood control works which require inter-provincialcoordination. Provinces and autonomousregions have their own water resourcesand power agencies,usually organizedas separatebureaus, which are administrativelyresponsible to the provincial/regionalgovernments and receive technicalguidance from MWREP. The schedule for annual water allocationfrom China'smajor rivers is based on proposals from the provincial/regionalwater resourcesbureaus which are reviewed by the State Planning Commission (SPC) with final adjustmentsmade by MWREP; control of the actual diversion of water is provided through the river basin commissions.In the past few years, the provincesand regions have assumed increasingresponsibility for initiatingand funding new projects in water resourcesdevelopment. Those which involvemajor river diversionand control schemes and/or central governmentfunding require SPC approval. MWREP must also approve the design work for any project over Y30 million.
C. Sectoral Oblectivesand Bank Operations
1.7 The Government'slong-term objectives in the agricultural sector are (1) to increaseand diversifythe production of food, feed and cash crops to meet requirementscreated by population and income growth, and (2) to raise employmentopportunities and incomes in rural areas. Given China's shortage of arable land (0.1 ha per capita), emphasis is being placed on increasingthe productivityof existing cropped areas and developing efficientlythe remainingunutilized land. Consistentwith this approach,water resources development policy has given priority to increasingthe efficiency of existing irrigationsystems through completionand rehabilitationof irrigation
\1/ The referencehere is to system efficiency;that is, the ratio between the amount of water received at the inlet to a service unit area and that released from the diversionpoint (intake,headworks, or pumping station). - 4 - and drainage structuresand improvedwater management. MKWREPprojects expansion of irrigated area by about eight million ha by the year 2000, mostly through additionsand improvementsto existing schemes. Over half of this planned expansionwould take place in the rice region south of the Huai River, about 1.6 million ha in the North China Plain, and the remainder in the Northeast, in the North along the great bend in the Yellow River, and in the far Northwest. MWREP has also instituteda large-scaleprogram to reduce waterloggingand salinity on presentlycultivated land through improved structuresand improved management.This is of critical importancein the Yellow River Basin which has only limited water resource potential, a major problem of heavy sedimentbuildup, and few suitable sites for constructionof new storage reservoirsand gravity irrigationsystems. In the Nei Monggol-Ningxiairrigation area, inadequateattention to drainage after years of continuous irrigationhas led to salinity problems which now affect an estimated 55% of irrigatedarea in Nei Monggol and 22% in Ningxia.
1.8 The Bank's strategy for lending in China's agriculturesector has been to support the Government'sefforts to expand and diversify agriculturaloutput through more efficientuse of human and physical resources. Lending to date has covered a broad spectrum of geographic areas and subsectors,with an overall focus on land development, upgrading agriculturalsupport services (such as research and credit), strengtheningspecialized product subsectors (such as rubber and fisheries),and, more recently,area development. The area developmentapproach generallytargets difficult agro-technical developmentproblems and combines in a single project assistanceto crop and livestockdevelopment and the strengtheningof various support services. The Bank's involvementwith water resources developmentin China was initiallyin the context of land development projects: the North China Plain Project (Cr. 1261-CHA)focussed on drainage improvement,irrigation from groundwater,and desalinization, and the HeilongjiangLand ReclamationProject (Ln. 2261-/Cr.1237-CHA) is constructinga drainage system to open up 200,000 ha of virgin lands. Of the area developmentprojects, the Pishihang-ChaohuArea DevelopmentProject (Ln. 2479/Cr. 1606-CHA)was the first to involve the Bank in large-scalesurface irrigationand flood control in China and the first to be managed through MWREP. The s'tbsequentXinjiang AgriculturalDevelopment Project (Cr. 1764-CHA)and the Gansu ProvincialDevelopment Project (Cr. 1793-CHA,Ln. 6443-CHA),which are being implementedby MAAF and GaxtsuProvince respectively,support extension and improvementof irrigatedarea mainly through exploitationof groundwater (Xinjiang)and river diversionschemes (Gansu). Implementationof ongoing Bank Group-financedprojects in the agriculturesector is on schedule. Notable features of all the projects to date are the high standardof management at the central, provincial and county levels and the enthusiasticparticipation of households and collectives.
D. Rationale for IDA Involvement
1.9 In spite of the remarkableprogress noted above (para. 1.2), rural growth has also entailed some new problems,key among them (1) loss of cultivated land to non-agriculturaluses and a decline in total grain production in 1985 and 1986, and (2) widening income disparitiesbetween poor, backward parts of China, mainly in the northwest a-rdsouthwest, and the more prosperouseastern coastal areas. In response, the Governmenthas encouraged the growth of grain production through land reclamation,the improvementand expansionof irrigatedarea, and raising crop yields. Government policy has also supported increased investmentsin the poorer parts of China so as to reduce geographicalincome disparities. Both of the proposed project areas have the potential for marked expansion in output: in Hetao, through improvementsin drains, canals and system management on existing irrigatedland, and in Yir.nan,through system completion and opening up new areas to irrigatedcrop cultivation. Expansion in output would lead to increased incomesand living standardsfor 122,000 farm families,some 23,000 of them now living in extreme poverty in Ningxia. The major rationalefor IDA involvementin the project is to make available to the Nei Monggol and Ningxia water resources agencies the Bank Group's experience in establishing irrigation,drainage, and rural developmentschemes in other parts of the world. In particular,IDA involvementwould provide access to new technologiesavailable within the internationalcommunity: e.g., setellite imagery and computerizedgroundwater monitoring devices used in designingcontrol measures for waterloggingand salinity,aerial mapping to help in the design and layout of on-farm ditches and drains, and VHF radio communicationand remote control equipment to improve system management. Project-sponsoredtraining and overseas study tours would provide opportunitiesfor Chinese techniciansto study more efficientuse of land and water resourcesand better management of large irrigationareas.
II. THE PROJECT AREAS
A. Location
2.1 The proposed project areas are in the Nei Monggol and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Regions in two major irrigationareas located at the western end of the great bend in the Yellow River: Hetao in central Nei Monggol and Yinnan in southern Ningxia. The Hetao irrigationarea, which has a designed service area of about 730,000 ha, lies at the river's northernmostpoint before it dips southeast,then makes its long, straight run from north to south defining the Shanxi-Shaanxi border. Yinnan commands 93,000 ha in four irrigationsubareas stretchingalong the river from the border with Gansu to Ningxia's capital of Yinchuan. Both Hetao and Yinnan, the sites of ancient irrigationsystems, are alluvial flood plains, protectedby mountains from the arid wastes to the west and north and facing on the opposite flank the vast grasslandsof the Ordos Plateau. Projectworks to improve and extend canals and drains in Hetao would focus on two blocks straddlingparts of four adjoining counties. The two blocks have a gross area of 345,600ha, a cropped area of 163,000 ha, and a total population of 490,000. Yinnan project sites are located on the less-developedright bank of the river. Activities to rehabilitate, complete and extend irrigationfacilites would benefit 36,000 ha-- about 40w of the 93,000 ha within the four subareas--anda population - 6 -
of 138,000, 40% of them new settlers. Project locationsare shown on IBRD maps 20286, 20287, and 20288, and area statisticsare given in Annex 1.
B. Climate
2.2 Hetao and Yinnan share an arid continentalclimate, with extreme summer and winter temperaturesand low, irregtlarrainfall, most of it concentratedin the summer months. In Hetaa, average daily temperaturesrange from a January low of -11 degrees C. to 23 degrees C in July. Winter temperaturesgenerally stay below freezing from November through March; a frost-freeperiod of 130-160 days allows a four to five month growing season. Good sunlight conditions (3,200 sunshine hours annually)are a positive factor in plant growth. Hetao has little rainfall (130-200mm), most of it occuring between July and September,and high evapotranspiration(2,100-2,300 mm). Agriculture is not possible without irrigation.High winds and sandstormsare frequent during the winter and spring months.
2.3 Yinnan is slightly warmer and wetter than Hetao. Although average daily temperaturesfor January and July are nearly the same (-9 and 22 degrees C. respectively),April and October temperaturesare a few degrees higher and the frost-freeperiod is longer (150-170 days). Average annual rainfall in the Yinraanarea is higher than in Hetao, ranging from 200 to 350 mm at the project sites. However, over 70% falls during June to September,evapotranspiration rates are high (2,000 to 2,300 mm), and spring droughts are common. Like Hetao, Yinnan experienceshigh winds and sandstormsduring winter and spring.
C. Topography
2.4 Hetao and Yinnan are situated in broad, alluvial flood plains built up over millenniaby deposits from the Yellow River. Most of Hetao is flat country which has an almost imperceptible(1:5000- 1:8000) south to north slope from the Yellow River towards the main trunk drain at the base of the Yin Mountains. The mountains are ribbed with gullies which become rushing streams during periods of sudden rain, strainingthe capacity of the trunk drain to protect the fields from flooding. Occasionaldunes and some 200 marshy lakes are scattered throughoutHetao. The largest lake is Wuliangsuhaiwhich has a surface area of 30,000 ha and serves as a catchmentbasin for mountain floods. The average elevationof the Hetao project arer is about 1,000 m above sea level.
2.5 Of the four project sites in Yinnan, Jinyintan in the north consists mostly of low, flat land lying within two main diversion channels and intersectedby the Kushui River. Directly east in Langpiziliang,the land form changes into the rolling hills of the Ordos Plateau. Elevationat these two sites is about 1,100 m above sea level. The Tongxin and Guhai project sites, located further south at the confluenceof the Yellow and Qingshui Rivers, lie at altitudes ranging between 1,200 and 1,500 m. Tongxin is on hilly terrain which rises abruptly from the flood plain, providinggood natural drainage. Guhai is a long, narrow strip of increasingelevation running along the Qingshui River to the mountainsof southern Ningxia. The ground slopes in Tongxin and Guhai range from 1:50 to 1:500.
D. Soils
2.6 Soils in the Hetao basin are primarily alluvial soils differentiatedon the basis of their soluble salt content into the relativelyless saline irrigatedsoils and the highly saline solonchaks. The irrigatedsoils, which have been leached and added to during centuries of irrigationand the natural flooding of the Yellow River, have a low (1%) organic content and low levels of pH and N, but are productiveunder conditions of careful use and maintenance. An estimated 94,000 ha of the total 195,000ha of irrigatedsoils in the Hetao project area are becoming progressivelymore saline in character. These so-called "salinizedirrigated soils" are further classifiedon the basis of soluble salt content into light (0.2-0.4%), medium (0.4-0.6%)and heavy (0.6-1%),with light salinized accounting for about 48,000 ha or half of the total. Hetao's solonchaks,which cover an estimated 135,000ha, are found mostly on low-lying land at the eastern end of the project area. Half of these highly saline areas are currentlycovered with scrub vegetationbut could, with adequate drainage and careful management,be developed into fields for fodder production.
2.7 The soils at the Guhai and Tongxin project sites in Yinnan are mainly loess and grey desert soils. These soils are deep (50-100cm), alkaline (pH-8.5),and relativelynon-saline (0.03-0.1%). They are generally easy to work but of low fertility. Grey desert soils are the predominanttype in Langpiziliang.These soils are highly permeable and non-splinewith a very low organic content (0.3%) and poor fertility. Under present conditions,the area supports little plant cover. In Jinyintan,meadow soils are mixed with saline and sandy soils. Because the land is low-lying,impeding natural drainage, the soils have become highly saline--0 1-0.7%. on average and above 1% in unreclaimedareas.
E. Farm Size, Land Use, and Population
Hetao
2.8 The Hetao project area, which covers parts of Hanghou, Linhe, Wuyuan, and Wulateqianqicounties, has about 83,000 farm families,or an agriculturalpopulation of 414,000. The average household farms about 1.6 ha, 95% of it irrigatedland. Of the to-al irrigatedarea of 163,000ha, 155,000 ha are sown with grain, oil-bearingcrops (primarilysunflower), and sugar beet, and the remainderwith tree crops and pasture. Average per hectare yields vary considerably throughout the area dependingon soil salinity conditions: wheat yields, for example, average 2.1 tons/ha with low salinity areas producingabout a third higher and high salinity areas a third lower than this figure. Corn yields average 3.3 tons/ha and oilseeds 1.3 tons/ha with e similar range dependingon salinity levels. While the salinity problem in Hetao constrainsproductivity, the large farm size and the availabilityof irrigationhave allowed Hetao to achieve higher per capita rural incomes than the national average--Y510in 1986 compared to Y424--andhigher than the Nei Monggol-widefigure of Y382. Most of this income is from crop production;only 17% is from tree crops, animal husbandry, and sideline activities.
Yimnnan
2.9 There are about 17,000 farm families,or an agricultural population of 83,000, presently occupyingproposed project sites in the Guhai, Jinyintan,and Tongxin irrigationsubareas; Langpiziliang is undevelopedand uninhabited. The present cultivatedarea at Guhai, Jinyintan, and Tongxin consists of 22,000 ha, 80% of which is in the first or second year of productionwith wheat and corn the primary crops. The average family farm is 1.5 ha, about three times the national standard,but water is insufficientand inefficientlyused, resulting in low productivity. Livestockraising, though a traditionalactivity in the project area, at present plays a very minor role in total farm production. Average per capita rural income in 1986 ranged from close to the national average of Y424 in the Jinyintan area to only Y165 in Guhai which accounts for 67% of the present population at the three sites.
2.10 Average per capita income among farmers eligible for resettlement under the project is less than Y80 or one-fifththe national average. An estimated 400,000 people, half of them members of the Hui minority, exist at this level of poverty. The majority of these poor farmers are in upland counties in southernNingxia, relying on rainfed agriculturein areas where annual rainfall averages only ?00 mm. Other poor farmers are in densely populatedcounties in central Ningxia where the land is low- lying and subject to salinity and waterlogging. Beginning in 1978, the Ningxia regional government instituteda long-rangeplan to resettle about 300,000 of the poor to newly developedirrigated areas. About 130,000 have been relocated to date, most of them to areas served by the Guhai and Tongxin lift irrigationschemes. Since 1983, Ningxia's resettlementprogram has received funding from the Central Government through the Three Xi Commission. Total expenditurefor the program from 1978-86, includingirrigation development and resettlement,is estimated at Y188 million. Additional details on current and planned resettlement activitiesare given in Annex 5.
F. Present Irrigationand Drainage Facilities
Hetao IrrigationScheme
2.11 Before 1949, the centuries-oldHetao IrrigationArea was supplied from the Yellow River through direct diversionchannels which left the area vulnerable to floodingand drought during periods of high and low river flow. In the late 1950s the Governmentbegan a major program to improve and expand the system of canals and control structures. This includedcompletion of flood-controlembankments and constructionof the SanshenggongDiversion Dam and a 230-km trurk canal. Under the present irrigationscheme, intake from the Yellow River, which averages 5.1 billion m3 annually, enters the trunk canal from Sanshenggongfor delivery to a six-tier network consisting of 12 main canals, 40 submain canals, 222 branch canals, and 19,700 lateral, sublateral,and field canals totalling 16,800 km. An estimated 83% of the planned number of canals at the branch level and above have been built to standard design but only 18% of the laterals,sublaterals, and field canals. On the trunk canal, there is a need to repair embankments,improve control structures,and enlarge the cross-section to improve efficiencyof water distribution.
2.12 Programs to construct irrigationfacilities for Hetao over the last 25 years have led to an increase in total irrigatedarea from 310,000 ha in 1961 to the present 480,000 ha (relativeto an estimated irrigablearea of 730,000ha) and virtual eliminationof flooding from the Yellow River. However, increasesin total crop output have been constrainedby worseningproblems of waterloggingand salinity,the result primarily of inadequateinvestment in a complementarysystem of drainage works. The present drainage system consists of the 202-km trunk drain, and 12 main drains, 40 submain drains and 222 partially constructedbranch drains. Only about 13% of the drains below the branch level have been constructed;on-farm works are notably poor. Water discharged into the trunk drain is pumped--exceptduring flood season when high water levels permit gravity flow--intoWuliangsuhai Lake. The size of the channel and the capacity of the pumping station are inadequateto handle present runoff, contributingto rising water table levels and increasingsalinity.
Yinnan Irrigation Scheme
2.13 The Yinnan irrigationarea, which accounts for 163,000 ha of Ningxia's current total irrigatedarea of 295,000ha, includes the Weining irrigationscheme and part of Qingtongxia. Qingtongxia,an ancient irrigationscheme, was improved during 1958-67 through the constructionof a naw diversiondam and seven main canals, four supplyingwater to the river's west bank and three serving the east. Total irrigated area in Qingtongxia increased from 128,000ha in the 1950s to 246,000ha at present, including 114,000 ha in Yinnan. The east bank canals are designed to serve about 3,800 ha of an incompletepump irrigation scheme in Langpiziliangand about 11,700 ha of a gravity-fed scheme in Jinyintan. While almost all of the Jinyintan canal network is in place, maintenancehas been poor and drainage works inadequate,resulting in steadily worseningproblems of waterloggingand salinity.
2.14 The Weining scheme, designed to irrigate narrow strips of alluvial plain on the east bank of the Yellow River, has been improved and expandcd from 23,000 ha in 1949 to 49,000 ha at present. In the 1970s a program was begun to extend irrigation to an additional40,000 ha of higher elevation loess flatlandsin the Guhai and Tongxin irrigationsubareas through constructionof multi-stage lift irrigationschemes. In some areas, the main works have been constructed,but only a small percentageof on- farm works are complete; in other areas, the entire network of canals and pumping stations must be established. Conceived primarily as a means of providing irrigatedarea for the resettlementof poor farmers, the program has resulted to date in completionof only 13,000 ha. - 10 -
C. Regional IrrigationAgencies
Hetao
2.15 The Nei Monggol Water ResourcesBureau (NMWRB)has overall responsibilityfor irrigationand drainage schemes serving the 965,000 ha of irrigatedland in Nei Monggol. Headed by a director appointedby the Regional Government,NMWRB consists of six administrativedepartments and 14 divisionswhich handle design, construction,research, education and training,and managementof major works (Chart 1). NMWRB's Yellow River ManagementDivision, for example, directs operationof the SanshenggongDiversion Dam, the main control point on the Yellow River between Denkou and Hohhot. NMWRB has a staff of over 7,000, about 30% of whom have had post-secondarylevel technical training. Funding for water resourcesdevelopment projects is allocatedby the regional planning commissionon the basis of NMWRB budget submissions. Large, inter-provincialand centrally- funded projects require SPC and MWREP approvalson planning and budget and the concurrenceof the Yellow River Commissionon design. Constructionuntil recentlywas handled exclusivelyby NMWRB's own constructionunits. However, in accordancewith MWRFP's current policy, which is to open constructionprojects to competitivebidding by all qualifiedengineering companies throughoutChina, NMWRB is now drawing up local competitive bidding (LCB) proceduresfor Nei Monggol.
2.16 Until this year, the Ba League\l/Water ResourcesBureau had primary responsibilityfor constructionand maintenanceof the main trunk drain and the system of trunk, main, and submain canals serving the Hetao irrigationarea. County (or banner\2/)water resourcesbureaus, together with townshipunits under their jurisdiction,managed all drains apart from the trunk drain and all canals from the branch to farm levels. The lack of coherence in the managementsystem--the fact that a submain canal and its parallel drain were managed by differententities--and the fact that there were no revenues earmarked for upkeep of drains led to inefficientuse of resources,deterioriation of drains, worsening salinity, and productivitywell below potential.
2.17 As part of the project-supportedprogram to rehabilitatethe Hetao scheme, in Septemberof 1987 the Nei Monggol Regional Government gave final approval to a plan to reorganizethe structurefor irrigation management. The plan calls for establishinga new agency, the Hetao IrrigationArea ManagementGeneral Bureau, which will take over the major engineeringfunctions--and staff--of the Ba League WRB leaving the latter with responsibilityfor research, design, and oversightover field
\l/ The Nei Monggol league is at the same administrativelevel as a prefecture in other regions of China, the major differencebeing that the regional governmenthas a more direct involvementin personneland budge-c decisions in the case of the league.
\2/ A banner is equivalentto a county. Nei Monggol has both banners and counties. - 11 - irrigationand drainage (Chart 1). As an engineeringagency linked to the NMWRB professionally,while administrativelypart of the Ba League, the General Bureau will be responsiblefor constructing,operating, and maintainingboth canals and drains down to and includingthe laterals. Under the General Bureau are seven management subbureausto oversee major parts of the water control network: the trunk canal, trunk drain, four main canals, and the sluice gate near Wulateqianqi. The seven subbureaus in turn will supervisea total of 73 canal managementoffices and 218 canal management sections with command areas determinedon the basis of canal length, number of control structures,and irrigatedarea. The average management office will have a command area of 7,000 ha, the management section, 700-1,300ha. Total staff, all transferredfrom the Ba League WRB, will number about 3,000. Water fees, collectedby the General Bureau and its hierarchy of offices, will be expected to cover an increasingportion of the costs of operatingand maintainingthe system.
2.18 The Ba League WRB with its much reduced staff--probablyno more than 500 altogether--willcontinue to be responsiblefor water distributionto the network of sublateralsand farm ditches. As is now the case, the Ba WRB and its constituentagencies, the county WRBs and township stations,will monitor selectionof water users groups, supervisebasic-level watering operations,and help organize farm labor to construct,maintain, and repair field-levelcanals and drains. The costs of labor and matRrials involved in carrying out the latter activities are routinely covered by a line item in the county or banner budget. Land use contractsalso specify that farmers are to contribute one labor day per mu (1/15 ha) per year to maintenanceand repair of the primary canal system;however, this has become difficult to enfo,ce and the use of supplementarywage labor is the norm. The water users groups are the starting point in regional planning for water allocation. Their records on crop water use provide the data for adjustmentsin planting layouts and water delivery timetablesmade by the canal management sections.
Yinnan
2.19 The Ningxia Water Resources Bureau (NXWRB) is the highest management agency for the 295,000 ha of irrigatedarea in Ningxia. As is the case in Nei Monggol, processingmajor water resourcesdevelopment projects proposed by the regional WRB involvesboth central and regional planning and design agencies as well as MWREP and the Yellow River Commission. NXWRB has under its direct control design, construction, research, education,and materials supply units along with eight major works management subbureauscorresponding to the seven subbureausunder the Hetao General Bureau (Chart 2). Two of the project areas, Langpiziliangand Jinyintan,are under the administrationof the Qinghan Canal Subbureau; Guhai and Tongxin are managed by the Guhai Pump Irrigation Subbureau. The subbureaus are further divided into 58 management offices and 116 management sections each commanding specified segments of the canal system. The Guhai and Tongxin project areas, for example, are under the jurisdictionof the east trunk canal management office. Total NXWRB staff numbers about 3,800, 40% of whom are classifiedas technicalpersonnel. - 12 -
2.20 The network directly managed by NXWRb reaches down to the level of branch canals and drains. Irrigationand drainage from the subbranch to field ditch level are the responsibilityof prefecture,county, and townshipwater resourcesunits. For the Yinnan irrigationarea, the Yinnan PrefectureWater Resourcesand Electric Power Bureau oversees operationsof seven county/citywater resourcesand electric power sections, five of them included in the project. By contrast to the canal-basednetwork which is concernedwith engineeringworks, tne prefecture-county-townshipstructure has primarily administrative functions: formingwater user groups to regulate actual water delivery and report on crop water requirements,helping to develop annual water allocationplans, and organizing labor for construction/maintenanceof field channels. As in the case of Hetao, costs of building and repair at the field level are borne by the county budget. Water fees collectedby the canal management sections are applied to expendituresincurred in operatingand maintaining the larger canals and drains. At present the fees are inadequatefor this purpose and the system is heavily subsidized. Like Nei Monggol, Ningxia has recently institutedLCB procedures in works procurementfor the water resourcessector.
H. Infrastructureand Support Services
Transport
2.21 The Yinnan and Hetao project areas lie along the major railway running from Lanzhou through Ylnchuan, Baotou, and Hohhot to Beijing. Rail carrying capacity is adequate to handle the present volume of freight traffic. Planned improvementsin the network, including electrification,double-tracking, and increasesin rolling stock, are expected to enable capacity to keep pace with future demands. Rail transportcosts now averageYO.3/t-km. Some freight is transportedby barge along navigable stretchesof the Yellow River: from Zhongning in southern Ningxia to the border with Nei Monggol and from Wulateqianqiat the eastern edge of the Hetao project area to Toukotou. Water transport is suspended from mid-Decemberto mid-Marchwhen the river freezes. With the exceptionof Langpiziliang,all project sites in Hetao and Yinnan are served by an adequate network of rural, secondary,and main roads linking villages, townships,county towns, and the regional capitals of Hohhot and Yinchuan. In Langpiziliang,which is presentlyundeveloped, some farm access roads would be constructedas part of the project.
Power Facilities
2.22 Electricityfor the Hetao project area is suppliedmainly by the 200,000 kW thermal power plant at Wulashan supplementedby mini hydropower and thermal (2,000 kW and 3,000 kW) plants at Dengkou. Transmissionis over 110, 35, 10 and 6 kV lines through distribution stations at Hanghouqianqi,Wuyuan, and Wulateqianqi. Additional distributionlines would be provided by the project to supply new pumping stations and tubewells. Electricitysupply for the Yinnan project area is generatedprincipally by several small hydropowerand thermal stations. A distributionnetwork supplyingproject area townshipsand villages is in place, but some additionallines would be needed to supply newly irrigatedareas developedby the project. - 13 -
Research. Extension and Training
2.23 Both Nei Monggol and Ningxia have in place a well-established institutionalstructure for research in agricultureand water resources. The leading agriculturalresearch organizationin each region is the regional academy of agriculturalsciences, a locally-fundedbranch of the Chinese Academy of AgriculturalSciences which is administeredby MAAF. The regional academies operate a network of prefectural (league,in the case of Nei Honggol) institutesspecializing in various aspects of crop and livestockresearch and county units which typicallyare involvedmore in extensionand demonstrationwork than actual research. In water resources, the Nei Monggol and Ningxia Water ResourcesResearch Institutes,which are administrativelypart of the respectiveregional WRBs, head a system of prefectureand county research units and experiment stations which investigatesuch topics as the use of vertical well drainage to improve saline-alkalinesoil, crop water requirements,and microcomputerapplications in water management. Additional experimental work and data gatheringare carried out by the WRB hydrology stations and their affiliated subunits. The Nei Monggol College of Agricultureand Animal Husbandry and the Ningxia AgriculturalCollege offer training and sponsor field research in both water resourcesand agriculture.
2.24 Each of the nine counties participatingin the project (four in Hetao and five in Yinnan) has in place a system of extensionand training to channel improved technologyand research results to farmers. The focal point of this local system is the county agro-technicalextension station which operates under the county agriculturalbureau. These stations have been built within the last five years with funding from KAAF as part of a national effort to improve extension services;they represent a consolidationof crop protection,diagnostic, and training activitieswhich were handled previouslyby separateunits. Each station has a staff of between 75-100 people, about 60% of them graduatesof specializedsecondary schools and above. While in some provinces the agro-technicalextension stations have been set up as financiallyself- supportingunits, in Nei Monggol and Ningxia, these stations provide free services to farmers. Services include soil testing,weather forecasting, monitoring of crop production,advice on pesticide and fertilizer application,and short-termtraining courses. From 1981-1986,stations in project counties in Hetao conductedweek or two-week-longtraining sessions for about 250,000 farmers. The stationsmanage demonstration plots for testing new varieties, agriculturalpractices, and technologies. They are also responsiblefor supervisingthe work of township extensionunits which eventuallywill be set up in each township. In the case of Hetao, only Linhe County has one unit per township already established;coverage is about half in the other three counties. In Yinnan, setting up township extension services is an integralpart of the planning for resettlement. Each township unit is staffed with 2-3 technicians,some of them technicalschool graduates, others farmer technicians.The goal is to provide one technicalworker per 700 ha of cultivated land; the present ratio is 1:2000.
NarketinE
2.25 In Nei Honggol and Ningxia, as elsewhere in China, sale of agriculturalproducts is now organized throughboth state and private - 14 - marketing systems. The state system includes state food companieswhich manage bulk procurementand inter-provincialtrade; supply and marketing cooperatives(SHCs) which do business with about 80% of farmers through a hierarchy of local agencies;and state food markets handling retail sales at government-determinedprices. Private marketing is a recent phenomenon,taking its present form only after the 1985 reforms. A major feature is the agriculturaltrade market (ATM), a permanent urban market where merchants lease space on a long-termor daily basis at rates which cover the cost of utilitiesprovided by the city. ATMs are usually divided into several sections--e.g.,meat, poultry, aquatic products, vegetables, fruit, grains, and edible oils. Prices for goods sold in the ATMs are more flexible than those prevailing in the state food markets, being largely determinedby considerationsof supply and demand. Increases in the scale of householdproduction and the complexityof marketing channels have encouragedproliferation of private middlemen to assist farmers in marketing their products. These intermediariesare increasinglyspecializing in various aspects of the marketir.gprocess such as procurement,transport, wholesaling or retailing. - 15 -
III. THE PROJECT
A. Prolect Oblectivesand Relation to Sector
3.1 The main objectives of the proposed project are (a) to increase the efficiency and profitability of agricultural production in Nei Monggol and (b) to alleviateabsolute poverty in Ningxia. These objectives are in line with the Government's strategy of making more efficientuse of land and water resources and reducing regional income differentials.The project would contribute to increasedyields and production,thus helping to ensure high and stable grain output regionallyand setting the stage for a more diversified,profitable agriculture.It would directly alleviateextreme poverty in Ningxia by establishing newly irrigated land for resettlementof farmers from rainfed or overcrowded areas who are now largely dependent on Government welfare.
B. Project Description
3.2 The proposed project would improve and expand irrigated area in Nei Monggol and Ningxia through construction, rehabilitation,and completion of canals, drains, and associated structures. In the Hetao area of Nei Monggol, the project would rehabilitate and complete existing drains and canals serving 210,000 ha of presently low-yieldingcropland or marginal grazing area. In Yinnan, Ningxia, it would upgrade and complete irrigation and drainage works on 22,000 ha and open up 14,200 ha of newly irrigated land. By ensuring a more reliable water supply, providing agriculturalinputs such as fertilizer,plastic mulch and improved seeds, and strengtheningextension services, the project would support increasedproduction of wheat, corn, sugar beet, oilseed, vegetables, fruits, fodder crops, and livestock. In Ningxia, a resettlementcomponent would relocate poor farmers on newly irrigated areas and provide infrastructureand social services.
3.3 The proposed project in Nei Monggol would be carried out in the Hetao irrigation area in four counties under the administrativejurisdiction of the Ba League. The Governmenthas selected two blocks covering parts of the four counties as the focus of project activities. Project works would improve 210,000 ha of the total area of 345,000ha in the two blocks.
Western Block: Hanghou County 50,000 ha Linhe County 70,000 Eastern Block: Wuyuan County 50,000 WulateqianCounty 40,000 Total 210,000ha
The project would focus on improvingdrainage works so as to lower water table levels and reduce soil salinity. The main features of the project are: - 16 -
(a) improvementof irrigationand drainage facilities serving 210,000ha through channel excavation,canal lining, replacementlining, replacementof bridges and control structures,and constructionof pumping stations;
(b) improvementof system operation and maintenance through provisionof machinery and equipment;
(c) provision of agriculturalinputs and strengthening support services;and
(d) a training and technicalassistance program designed to strengthenwater management at all levels and to improve salinity control techniques.
3.4 In Ningxia, the proposed project would cover parts of tue Guhai, Tongxin, Langpiziliang,and Jinyintan irrigationsubareas which are under the jurisdictionof five counties.The project would newly irrigate 14,200 ha for settlementby poor farm families and would complete and upgrade existing works on anotheiv 22,000 ha. The 14,200 ha of new area would involve 12,700 ha of lift pump irrigationat Guhai, Tongxin, and Langpiziliangand 1,500 ha of a gravity-fedscheme at Jinyintan. Improvements on 22,000 ha would include 17,100 ha of lift irrigationat Guhai and Tongxin and 4,900 ha which are part of the gravity network at Jinyintan.
New Completed/Upgraded Irrigation Irrigation Irrigation Subarea Network Network Total
Guhai 3,000 ha 14,700 ha 17,700 ha Tongxin 5,900 2,400 8,300 Langpiziliang 3,800 3,800 Jinyintan 1,500 4.900 6,400
Total 14,200 22,000 36,200
The main features of the project are:
(a) constructionand improvementof irrigationand drainage works on 36,200 ha through channel excavation and installation of control structures,pumping stations, and power lines;
(b) improvementof system operationand maintenance through provision of machinery and equipment;
(c) resettlementof 11,000 farm families including provisionof building materials, agriculturalinputs and machinery, water supply, electricity,and social services;
(d) a study of irrigationand agriculturein the Yinbei area including preparationof a developmentplan to improve 130,000ha of existing cultivated land and to extend irrigationand drainage - 17 -
to an additional100,000 ha; and
(e) a training and technicalassistance program designed to upgrade the technicaland managerial skills of WRB and PMO staff and to train new settlers in irrigatedagriculture.
C. Project Features in Nei Monggol
Irrigationand Drainage Works
3.5 Trunk Drain. The project would complete about 14 million cu m of earthworksto widen and deepen 170 km of the 202 km trunk drain which forms the northern boundary of the project area. Bed width would be 15-30 m, top width 40-60 m, and depth of flow 2.5- 3.0 m for a normal flow capacity of 55 cu m/sec and a peak flow of 100 cu i/sec. The water level in the trunk drain would be maintained at 1.5 a below ground level to facilitate inflow from the side drains. Sections of the channel subject to erosion would be lined with concrete.About 33 bridges, 10 aqueducts, and 30 drainage end-controlswould be built on the trunk drain to facilitatecommunications and provide better water control. The existing pumping station at Honghebu,which lifts drainage from the trunk drain into WuliangsuhaiLake, would be repaired and refurbishedso as to achieve its designed pumping capacity of 30 cu a/sec. To provide additionalcapacity, the project would construct a new pumping station about 100 m from the first, equipped with six pumps with a designed capacity of 100 cu m/sec. Power would be provided through the Wulateqianqidistribution station. Given the urgent need for increasedpumping capacity to remove excess water from the drains, site preparationand foundationworks for the new station are alreadybeing carried out so that constructionmight begin in early 1988.
3.6 Trunk Canal. The project would upgrade the 230-km trunk canal which runs along the Yellow River at the southern edge of the project area by addition of control structuresand canal lining. An energy dissipaterwould be added to the existing drop structurenear Sanshenggongto check present bed scouring.A new regulator (#5) would be constructed160 km from Sanshenggongto provide better water control for about 80,000 ha of irrigated area downstream. About 23 km of canal banks between regularors #1 and #2 would be lined with concrete to stop erosion.
3.7 Main. Submain, and Branch Canals and Drains. The project would complete about 5.6 million cu m of earthworks on the main, submain, and branch canals which total about 820 km in length. This would be mostly in the form of excavation to enlarge, extend or straighten149 existingbranch canals and 8 main canals, and to constructone new submain canal and 27 branch canals. Spacing between main canals is about 10-25 km with canal length of about 40-140 km, commandingabout 20,000-60,000 ha. Figures for submain canals are 5-10 km, 10-15 km, and 5000-15,000ha, and for brameh caals 3-5 km, 5-10 km, and 1,500-5,000ha. The project would install about 2,330 structures on the canal network, including 39 aqueducts, 73 offtakes, 118 controls, 233 end- - 18 - controls/spillways,43 road bridges, 135 tractor bridges, 7 pedestrianbridges, and 1,611 lateral and sublateralofftakes.
3.8 About 32 million cu m of earthworkswould be carried out, mainly in improvementand constructionof 6 main drains, 20 submain drains, and 141 branch drains with a total length of 1,365 km. About 153 km of the drainage channelswould be lined to prevent erosion and scouring.The drains would be designed to maintain the water table level at 1.3 to 1.5 m below ground level for areas where groundwateris fresh and 1.5 to 1.7 m where groundwater is either partly or totally saline. Altogether 120 pumping stations with a combined capacity of 2,950 kw would be constructed on 3 main, 12 submain and 67 branch drains where gravity flow would be preventedby low ground levels. The project would also install 443 bridges and 600 structures, comprisingmainly end-controls,junctions, and aqueducts.
3.9 On-farm Works. Based on surveys of soils, topography, and hydrogeologicalconditions, the Nei Monggol WRB has designed the layout for alternativeon-farm drainage systems at fourteen sample sites in the project area. Four systems have been recommendedfor the 210,000 ha to be developedby the project as follows: open surface drainage, 156,700ha (74%),vertical tubewell drainage, 40,400 ha (19%), subsurfacedrainage, 1,600 ha (1%), and biological control system (i.e., introducing salt tolerant crops such as rice and barley with high water requirements),11,800 ha (6%).
3.10 In the open surface drainage system, the spacing between field drains would be 150-300m with the drains at closer intervals in areas where the soils have a high clay content. Field drains would be 1.8-2.5m deep with side slopes ranging from 1 in 1.5 to 1 in 3. Sub-surfacedrains would be installed in areas with sandy soils. Corrugatedplastic pipes 70 mm in diameter and 200 m in length would be buried 2 m below the surface at 200 m spacing with a gradient of 1 in 750. Collector pipes 200-250 mm in diameter installedat a gradient of 1 in 1,500 would dischargedrainage into open sublateralor lateral drains. Vertical tubewellswould be installedto lower water table levels in areas where total mineralizationof groundwater exceeds 2 gm/literwith 80% harmful salts. Wells would be 35-40 m deep spaced at about 500 m. Each well, commandingabout 25 ha, would have a 4" submersibleelectric pump of 2.2 kW. Well casing would be sandless concrete pipe 400 mm in diameterwith wall thicknessof 50 mm. Yield from each well would be about 36-50 cu m/hr and 500-800 cu m/16 hours of pumping. Where mineralization of groundwateris less than 2 gm/liter,the groundwaterpumped by the wells would be used for irrigation. In this case, the wells would be spaced at about 400 m, each commandingabout 16 ha.
3.11 Land smoothingwould be required on about 147,000 ha, mostly leveling of high spots. Cultivated area would be organized into 0.07-0.13ha plots to facilitateefficient water management.Four rows of trees would be planted along the lateral and sublateral canals with row spacing of 1-1.5 m and tree spacing of 1.5 m. Villages would be linked by 7 m wide rural - 19 - roads and production teams by 4.5 m wide farm roads. Bridges would be 4.5 m wide for rural and farm eoads and 1.5 m for pedestrian use. On-farm works would be planned and designed using aerial maps developed for the project (para. 1.9).
Machinery and Equipment
3.12 The project would provide earth moving machinery, mostly excavators and bulldozers,to the Nei Monggol WRB and Hetao General Bureau to be used in construction,operation and maintenance of the primary system of canals and drains. The Hetao General Bureau and its affiliateddepartments and management offices and sections would be supplied with fuel and repair trucks, trucks for hauling constructionmaterials, and field vehicles to be used for on-site inspection.VHF radio communicationand remote control equipmentfor operatinggates would also be provided to replace the outdated network presently used in system management. To promote efficiency in compilation,analysis, and reportingof project data, the project would provide microcomputersand office equipment to the Nei Monggol, Ba League and county PMOs. Machinery and equipment lists are given in Annex 2, Table 6.
AgriculturalInputs and Support Services
3.13 AgriculturalInputs. To remedy soil deficienciesin Hetao, the project would provide as a single soil amendment 20,000 tons of chemical fertilizers,principally diammonium phosphate (DAP). An assurancewas obtained at negotiationsthat adequate quantities of chemical fertilizernutrients would be procured and made available to farmers and that an annual program for such provisionwould be prepared and submitted to IDA for review prior to November 1 of each year. The project would also provide 2,750 tons of raw materials to be used in the manufactureof plastic mulch. The plastic mulch, applied as a ground cover for newly planted corn and cash crops, would improve germinationrates and shorten the growingperiod. The county PMOs would organize the sale of fertilizerand plastic mulch to farmers on a revolving fund basis with funds recoveredused to purchase additional supplies. The project would support increasedproduction of fresh milk in the project area through domestic procurementof 400 dairy cows to be distributedto 200 specializedhouseholds for managementon a contract basis.
3.14 Support Services. The project --ould strengthenthe extension system by constructingand equipping 27 township agro-technicalextension stations and five village crop protection offices. Equipmentwould include soil testing instruments,crop pest warning devices, and spraying equipment for insect control. The project would expand facilitiesof the Ba League Cash Crops Research Station and furnish it with laboratory equipmentand growth chambers for simple experimentsand demonstrations. The project would upgrade an existing seed stationby constructionof additionalstorage facilitiesand drying yards. Nurserieswould be establishedin the project area to supply quality seeds for crops and saplings for orchards and tree belts. - 20 -
Training and Te¢hnicalAssistance
3.15 The project would provide 84 man-monthsof overseas study tours (four weeks per participant)and 35 man-monthsof overseas training (four to twelve months per trainee) for staff of local water resource and agriculturalagencies and project managementoffices. Study tours would familiarizestaff with new technologiesin drainage and slope protection,management of large-scaleirrigation systems, and on-farm works design and with the experienceof other developing countries in implementingand monitoringBank projects.Overseas trainingwould enable staff to study in some depth such areas as constructionengineering, salinity control, and groundwaterassessment (para 1.9). Provisionwould also be made for consulting services (14 man-months) to address specific on-siteproblems in drainage and soil improvement and assist in preparation of documents for internationalcompetitive bidding. Local training would include over 4,000 man-monthsof long- and short-termtraining for WRB and PMO staff, heads of water users' groups, and water resourcesresearch staff in courses ranging from project management, finance and accounting to salinity control, soil improvement and equipment use. Courses would be held at the Linb' ater Resources School, the Nei Monggol College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, and the Water Resources Research Institutes at Henan and Beijing. The project would provide 40,000 man-months of training for area farmers and herdsmen in the form of 1-5 day sessions on cultivation techniques and animal husbandry taught by staff of the township extension stations. The costs, phasing, and descriptionof training and technicalassistance are given in Annex 2, Table 14. During negotiations, the details and schedule of the proposed training program were reviewed and agreed with IDA and an assurancewas obtained that trainingwould be carried out in accordance with this agreed program.
D. Proiect Features in Ninaxia
Irrigationand Drainage Works
3.16 Now IrrigationNetwork. The project would complete about 24 million cu a of earthworksin constructionof a new network of canals and drains designed to expand irrigatedarea by 14,200 ha in Guhai, Tongxin, Langpiziliang,and Jinyintan.In Guhai, Tongxin, and Langpiziliang,which account for 12,700 ha of the new area, the project would construct 6 main and 16 branch canals with a total length of 128 km and 2,423 km of on-farm works (canalsat the lateral level and below). Eleven pumping stations would be constructedand two upgraded to convey water to higher elevations. Pumping capacity would range from 0.2-0.5 m3/sec against a lift of 17-32 m at Guhai, 0.5-0.78 m3/se< against a lift of 39-49 a at Tongxin, and 0.24-0.47m3/sec against a lift of 25-41 m at Langpiziliang.Power would be brought to the pumping stations by newly installedtransmission lines from five new substationslinked to the Ningxia regional power grid. Some 6,800 structuresincluding regulator-, offtakes, siphons, and bridge crossings,would be constructedas part of the mew irrigationnetwork. The new gravity-fedirrigation network at Jinyintan, desiged to irrigate 1,500 ha, would involve construction of two braneh cana1 linked to the East main canal and totaling 21 i in length and 18 control structures,mainly offtakes,controls, and aque _ts. - 21 -
3.17 On-farm Works. Some 1,800 laterals and sublateralswould be constructedor upgraded to complete the irrigationnetwork serving 14,700 ha in Guhai and 2,400 ha in Tongxin. This would involve about 20 million m3 of earthworksand installationof about 9,000 structures, mainly gates, bridges, and culverts.The laterals would each be designed to irrigate about 50 ha, the sublateralstwo ha.
3.18 Isproved IrrigationNetwork. In Jinyintan, the project would upgrade canals and drains serving 4,900 ha of low-lying, water- logged crop land. This would mainly involvewidening and deepening channels and installingsome 3,000 structuresincluding gates, bridges, and culverts, About 190 ha of fish ponds would be constructedon land which cannot be economicallyreclaimed for crop production.
Machinery and Equipment
3.19 The project would provide machinery and equipment to the Ningxia W1RBfor construction,operation, and maintenanceof project works. Machinerywould include excavators,shovels, desiltingmachines, and lifting machines. A VHF radio system with mobile units would be provided to improve communicationsbetween the pumping stations and the canal management offices. The project would supply trucks to the WRB constructionunits and canal departmentsfor use in hauling materials for constructionand repair. Utility vehicles and vans would be distributedto Lhe canal offices and sections to facilitate works inspection.The project would provide the PMOs with microcomputers, copiers, and video equipmentfor use in project monitoring.Machinery and equipmentlists are given in Annex 2, Table 12.
Resettlement
3.20 About 11,000 poor farm families (54,000people) from the arid hills and overcrowdedlowlands of Yinnan would be relocatedonto 14,200 ha of newly irrigatedland developedby the project. A family of five would be allocated about 1.3 ha of land includinga small plot for a house and vegetable garden or fruit trees. The project would establish 117 basic villages of 90-100 families each, organized into 26 village centers and three townships. The project would provide new settlerswith building materials, equipment, and agriculturalinputs, including chemical fertilizers. An assurancewas obtained at negotiationsthat adequate quantitiesof chemical fertilizernutrients would be procured and made available to farmers and that an annual program for such provisionwould be prepared and submitted to IDA for review prior to November 1 of each year. The project would establishinfrastructure, including roads, electricityand water supply, and social services,primarily health clinics and schools. Extension stationshandling a range of services --e.g., in forestry,animal husbandry, fisheries,crop protection-- and farmer trainingwould be set up at the township level. The project would support developmentof small-scalerural enterprisesfollowing completionof infrastructureand service facilities. Relocation costs, including infrastructureand social services,are estimated at about Y1,300 per person for a total of Y70 million. The resettlementprogram would operate on a strictlyvoluntary basis; over a specifiedtrial period, settlers would retain the right to return to their original - 22 - farmland. Details of the costs and phasing of the resettlementcomponent are given in Annex 5. An assurancewas obtained at negotiationsthat the resettlement1 componentwould be carried out in accordancewith the plan submittedto IDA in October 1987.
Yinbei Studies
3.21 The Yinbei irrigationarea, comprising133,000 ha of cultivated land and an additional100,000 ha of potentiallyirrigable land, lies to the immediatenorth of Ningxia's capital city of Yinchuan. The topographyof the area is flat, with occasionaldepressions which lie as much as 3 m below the normal water level of the Yellow River. About 50% of the area is affected by high water tables and soil salinity. Upgrading existing irrigationand drainage facilitiesand extending facilitiesto the remaining 100,000ha of irrigableland would require comprehensivestudies of the area. The project would provide Y10 million to carry out engineering,hydrogeological and agricultural studies with a view to preparing a comprehensiveagricultural developmentplan for the area. Three areas of about 300 ha each in Gaochuan,Wuxian, and Linhe counties would be establishedas test sites for dLfferentengineering and agriculturaltechniques for controlling water table levels and soil salinity.The project would provide consulting services (Annex 2, Table 14) to assist the Ningxia WRB with the studies, particularlyin the use of satellite imagery in planning and design (para. 1.9). An assurancewas obtained at negotiations that (a) a working group, assisted by suitably-qualifiedconsultants, would be establishedunder the Regional Project ManagementOffice to study the Yinbel area with terms of reference for the study satisfactoryto IDA and (b) that a report on the said study would be submittBd to IDA by June 30, 1991.
Training and TechnicalAssistance
3.22 The project would provide training to upgrade the skills of staff of the WRB, PMOs and agriculturalagencies and to introduce them to new technologyin lift pump irrigation,drainage, salinity control, and water resourcesmanagement (para. 1.9). This training would include 56 man-mont'hLsof overseas study tours, 60 man-months of short-termcourses overseas,and 2,400 man-months of long-term training at the Ningxia Water Resources School and other local institutions. For farmers, the project would provide 2,500 man-months of local training in the form of field demonstrationsand short courses organizedby agriculturaltechnicians from the agro-technical extensionnetwork. This trainingwould be essentialfor the new settlers in Yinnan who would be converting from dryland to irrigated agricultureand would need to learn new crop cultivationpractices and techniquesof water management. Sixty-twoman-months of consulting services would be provided,primarily to assist in carrying out the engineeringand agriculturalstudies in Yinbei (para.3.21). The costs, phasing, and descriptionof training and technicalassistance are given in Annex 2, Table 15. During negotiations,the details and schedule of the proposed trainingprogram were reviewed and agreed with IDA and an assurancewas obtained that trainingwould be carried out in accordance with the agreed program. - 23 -
E. Water Supply, Demand and Quality
Hetao
3.23 Water for the Hetao irrigationarea is supplied from the Yellow River through the existing intake at the SanshenggongDiversion Dam. Total annual regulatedflow availablefor the 163,000 ha of irrigated land in the project area averages 2.44 billion m3. Project activities,with their focus on improveddrainage and better water management,would make more efficientuse of availablewater, thus reducing present demand to 2.32 billion m3 while increasingirrigated area to 210,000 ha. The irrigationseason in Hetao begins in early May and extends to early November; the period of peak demand is July- September. Typical irrigationfrequencies, periods and quantities for various crops are shoun in Annex 1, Table 4. The quality of water diverted from the Yellow River is generally good with mineralization at about 0.45 gm/liter and the pH level at 8.1 during the irrigation season from May to November. The silt content of the water at the Sanshenggongintake is about 3.1 kg/m3 (long-termaverage) and in the trunk canal about 1.9 kg/m3.
Yinnan
3.24 Water to irrigate 36,000 ha in the proposed project area would be supplied from the Yellow River through the intake at the Qingtongxia DiversionDam in the case of Langpiziliangand Jinyintan and through a pumping station at Cuanyanshanin the case of Tongxin and Guhai. Approval to divert water to meet the needs of the project area has already been obtained as part of earlier, incomplete irrigation schemes (paras. 2.12 and 2.13); total annual irrigationrequirements would be on the order of 360 million m3. Guhai would also make use of water from the Qingshui River to irrigate about 1,300 ha. This water would be diluted with pumped water from the Yellow River to reduce mineralizationfrom 3.0 to 1.5 gm/liter. The irrigationseason in Yinnan is similar to Hetao with minor deviations in frequenciesand quantities. Typical figures are given in Annex 1, Table 4. Water quality is also similar with the mineralizationlevel at 0.4 gm/liter and pH at 7.8.
F. Status of Design Hetao
3.25 The project is in an advanced stage of preparation.Designs for most of the major civil works componentshave been prepared by the Nei Monggol Water ResourcesBureau Design Instituteand approved by the MWREP. Detailed working drawings are being prepared. Preparationof drawingswould be sufficientlyadvanced for construction to begin in 1988, especiallyon the trunk drain and trunk canal. Designs for on-farm works for the 210,000 ha would be based on designs developed for the fourteen sample areas. Aerial photographssuitably enlarged would be used to assist in planning the total layout. On-farm structureswould be prefabricatedaccording to standardizeddesigns at central plants to be set up in each of the four project counties. Engineeringquantities for civil works are based on designs already - 24 - completed. Estimatedcosts are derived from unit costs for similar works carried out recently in the project area, with prices adjusted to September 1987.
Yinnan
3.26 In the case of Yinnan, designs and detailed drawings completed earlier for the Guhai, Tongxin, and Langpiziliangpumping schemes are being modified for project use. Designs for the main and branch drains in Jinyintan are being prepared by the Ningxia Water Resources Design Institute.Detailed drawings would be completed in time for constructionto begin in 1988. Design of on-farm works would be carried out as the main works are being constructed. There is ample experience in constructionof irrigationworks in other parts of Yinnan on which to base quantitiesand unit prices. Layouts for settlement sites in the four areas have been prepared and detailed designs for infrastructure are well under way.
G. ImplementationSchedule
Hetao
3.27 The project would be carried out over a period of seven years, from July 1988 to June 1994. The main reasons for the lengthy implementationperiod are the large size of the project area and the interruptionof constructionactivities by freezingweather between December and March. Constructionwould start with the trunk drain and the trunk canal in 1988 followed by improvementsto main and branch drains and canals. On-farm works, to be constructedmainly by contri- buted labor, would start in the first year in the 14 sample areas. The trunk canal 6ould be completedby the end of 1991; the trunk drain by 1992; the main and branch drains and canals by 1992; and most on-farm works by 1994 to allow full irrigationin 1994. A detailed implementationschedule is given in Figure 1.
Yinnan
3.28 The project would be implamentedover a period of about five years from the start of the 1988 constructionseason in March to the end of the 1992 constructionseason in November. Site preparation and temporaryworks for Jinyintan, Langpiziliang,and Guhai would be completed during the first half of 1988 for constructionof major works to start in July. Constructionat Tongxin would begin in 1989. New settLers--typically,adult male family members--wouldtake up temporaryresidence beginning in 1988, on the 14,200 ha to be opened up by the project to assist in constructionof laterals,sublaterals, and on-farm structures. Relocation of other family members would generally take place in 1991, just prior to provision of irrigation water, when land leveling and other preparatorywork would be carried out.
H. Cost Estimates
3.29 The total project cost is estimated at US$234 million, with a foreign exchange componentof US$103 million or 44% of the total. _ 25 -
TAMS 3.1 hPOJlCSCOST SUMMYR
______._.______--_------______..._..___ 3ts1mze Costs to Local Foreign Total Local Foreala Total *.1. ------( minlLo) ------((Us$ allie.)----i------I --- _-_---_---_------_------_------_--_-______-__-----______---- Not" Ce_esAmt ______Deaasee & Irrigatioslb 273.2 140.8 414.0 73.8 38.0 111.9 34
WULdILAg 11.3 4.8 16.1 3.0 1.3 4.4 30
Naokiae,y equip. & materials 10.9 61.5 72.4 2.9 16.6 19.6 65
Trainingend Tech. Assist. 4.3 3.3 7.6 1.2 0.9 2.1 43
2GaLc-rLn./Ksnagemat 9.2 1.0 10.2 2.5 0.3 2.8 10
Use Cost 308.9 211.4 520.3 63.5 57.1 140.6 41
Physical contingencLes 11.5 8.7 20.2 3.1 2.3 5.4
Nrice contifngefiCs 49.5 .4.2 123.7 4.4 6.6 11.0
Total Het" 369.9 294.3 664.2 91.0 66.0 157.0 42 ------~ ~ ~ -----___ ------_____-_
Tiume Compenat ______Draiage & Irrigationlb 92.0 75.2 167.2 24.9 20.3 45.2 45
-es-ttl ent 29.5 29.5 59.0 8.0 8.0 15.9 30
Naohinry, equip. & materials 0.0 15.0 15.0 0.0 4.1 4.1 100
Trainingand Tech. Asstst. 1.8 1.8 3.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 50
heimeriang/Kansg.aat 6.6 0.7 7.3 1.8 0.2 2.0 10
TLnbeL Studies 7.0 3.0 10.0 1.9 0.3 2.7 30
Uase Cost 136.8 125.2 262.0 37.0 33.6 70.8 46
Physical contLngeniLes 5.9 5.4 11.3 1.6 1.5 3.1
Price contingencies 18.1 27.1 45.2 1.2 1.8 3.0
Total Yjinsn 160.8 157.7 318.5 39.8 37.1 76.9 4U
Total Noject 530.7 452.0 982.7 130.7 103.2 233.9 44
la: Pt.j..t La exempt frem taxes -nd duties. lb: Ineluiesnn-fam wors and electrification. - 26 -
The total cost of the Hetao component is estimated to be US$157 million, with a foreign exchange componentof US$66 million (42% of the total) and the Yinnan component,US$77 million, with a foreign exchange component of US$37 million (48% of the total). These costs include no significanttax element since civil works and buildings are essentiallyfree of tax, and importedmaterials and equipment are exempt from duties. Cost estimatesare based on quantitiesderived from the designs describedin paras. 3.25 and 3.26 and unit prices currentlyprevailing in the project area. Engineeringand management costs have been calculatedat 2% of total costs of works items. Physical contingenciesare 5% of civil works for the Hetao component and 5% of civil works and resettlementfor the Yinnan component. Price escalation for both foreign and local costs when expressed in US dollars is based on annual internationalprice escalation rates for all goods and services of 1% for 1988-90 and 3.5% for 1991-94; and when expressedin yuan, is based on price escalation rates of 6.5% for 1988-90 and 4.5% for 1991-94. Estimatedcosts are summarized in Table 3.1 and details are given in Annex 2.
I. Financing
3.30 Bank Group assistancewould be an IDA Credit of SDR 72.7 million (US$103million equivalent)and would cover 44% of total project costs. The balance of US$131 million equivalentwould be met from the following:
(a) Central Government,US$10.8 million, Nei Monggol Regional Government,US$32.5 million, and Ba League,US$47.7 million (with the latter figure includingcontributed labor estimatedat US$34 million), for the Hetao component;and
(b) Ningxia Regional Government,Yinnan Prefecture,and participatingcounty governments,US$40 million, for the Yinnan component.
J. Procurement
Hetao
3.31 Procurementof machinery and equipmentfor operation and maintenance (US$7.5million), pumps (US$1.4million), agricultural equipment and materials (US$6.3million), electrical equipment (US$1.0million), constructionmaterials (US$14.5million), and office,laboratory,training and communicationequipment (US$2.7 million) would be by internationalcompetitive bidding (ICB) and limited internationalbidding in accordancewith Bank Group guidelines (Table 3.2). Civil works (US$52 million) would be divided into ten packages: (a) one ICB package for the trunk drain includingthe new Honghebu Pumping Station estimated to cost US$19.5 million; and (b) nine LCB packages for the trunk canal and the eight drainage compartments.Qualified domestic contractorswho bid on the ICB package would be eligible for a 7.5% preference in bid evaluation. The nine packages of civil works, consistingmostly of earthworks and structuresscattered over a wide area, would be too dispersed to attract foreign contractorsand would, therefore,be carried out by - 27 -
TABLE 3.2 PROCUREMENTARRANGEMENTS (US$ million)
Item ICB LIB LCB Others /a Total
Hetao Component Civil works 19.5 - 30.3 2.5 52.3 ( 9.5) (10.0) (19.5)
On-farm works - - 18.0 38.8 56.8 ( 6.0) ( 6.0)
Machinery, equip. 40.1 1.5 - 1.0 /b 42.6 and materials (36.2) (1.5) (1.0) (38.7)
Training & T.A. - - - 2.3 2.3 (1.5) (1.5)
Engineering and - 3.0 3.0 management (0.3) (0.3)
ComponentTotal 59.6 1.5 48.3 47.6 157.0 ------(45.7) (1.5) (16.0) ( 2.8) (66.0)
Yinnan Component Civil works - - 18.7 3.5 22.2 ( 7.4) ( 1.4) ( 8.8)
On-farm works - - 9l.0 22.0 31.0 ( 2.7) ( 6.5) ( 9.2)
Settlement /c - - 3.4 - 3.4 ( 1.1) ( 1.1)
Machinery, equip. 14.7 1.0 - 0.5 /b 16.2 and materials (14.7) ( 1.0) ( 0.5) (16.2)
Training & T.A. /d - - - 2.0 2.0 ( 1.5) (1.5)
Engineering and - - - 2.0 2.0 management ( 0.2) (0.2)
Component Total 14.7 1.0 31.1 30.0 76.8 (14.7) (1.0) (1.1.2) (10.1) (37.0)
Note: Figures in parenthesesare the amounts to be financed by IDA Creldit. All amounts include contingencies. /a: Includes consultingservices, training, study tours and force account constructionfor civil and on-farm works. /b: Prudent shopping on basis of three bid quotations /c: Covers constructionof buildings for social services and facilities. /d: Includes consultingservices for Yinbei studies. - 28 -
LCB local constructionteams through contractsawarded following On-farm works, covering lateral and sublateralcanals and drains and structures,would be carried out by force account operations be managed by the participatingcounties. On-farm structureswould at standardizedthrough use of concrete componentsprefabricated central plants to be set up in each project county. This method would ensure quality control, reduce material wastage and trans- portation costs, and enable year round production.
Yinnan
3.32 Procurementof constrvctionmachinery and vehicles (US$1.3 million), constructionsteel (US$1.3million), electrical equipment and pumps (US$1.3million), agriculturalmachinery and materials (US$10 million), and office, laboratory,communication and training and equipment (US$0.9 million) would be on the basis of ICB limited internationalbidding (LIB) in accordancewith Bank Group guidelines (Table 3.2). Civil works, buildings, and land development (US$48 million), mostly earthworksand small structuresscattered of over a wide area in the four irrigationsubareas, would not be interest to foxeign contractors. These works would be constructed in part by local constructionteams through contractsawarded followingLCB and in part by labor contributedby farmers or hired under local procedures and directed by WRB units.
3.33 The followingprocurerent procedures would apply to both Hetao and Yinnan. For goods procured through ICB, qualifieddomestic manufacturerswould be allowed a domestic preference over foreign is manufacturersof 15% or the applicablecustoms duty, whichever greater, in bid comparison. Prior IDA review of contract awards cover would exclude small contracts ($200,000or less) estimated to less than 20% of the total value of all contracts. Items including (a) a small amount of laboratoryequipment and instruments;and (b) agriculturalmachinery and implementscosting not more than US$50,000per contract and aggregatingnot more than USt500,000, would be procured on the basis of three price quotationsunder procedures satisfactoryto IDA. Items costing not more than US$200,000 per contract and aggregatingnot more than US$1.5 million for Hetao and US$1.0 million for Yinnar.would be procured in accordance China with local competitivebidding proceduresacceptable to IDA. The Machinery Corporation(CMC) and the China Chemical Import and Export Corporation (CCIEC)would prepare the ICB documents for works and Office goods on behalf of the Nei Monggol Regional ProjectManagement (PMO). The InternationalTendering Company (ITC) of the China National for Technical Import Corporation(CNTIC) would prepare ICB documents . goods on behalf of the Ningxia Regional Project Management Office contracts, These agencies would be responsiblefor invitingbids for ICB to IDA. evaluating bids received and submittingaward recommendations by LCB procedures for civil works and buildings are being prepared LCB the Nei Monggol and Ningxia WRBs based on MWREP guidelinesand procedures followed in other Bank-financedprojects in China (paras.2.15 and 2.20). These procedureswould allow for competitive bidding by all qualified :instructionand engineeringenterprises, at both within and outside the region. An assurancewas obtained as negotiationsthat the LCB procedures for Nei Monggol and Ningxia - 29 - well as sample documentswould be submittedto IDA for review and approval by June 30, 1988 and, in any case, prior to bid invitation. Consultantswould be selected in accordancewith the Bank Group's guidelineson the use of consultants.Overseas training and study tours would be financed by the Bank and subject to the Bank's prior review. The remainingtraining requirementswould be contracted for locally and financedby the Government. Procurementarrangements are shown in Table 3.2. K. Disbursements
3.34 Disbursementsagainst expendituresfor machinery, equipment and materials would be 100% of the foreign exchange cost of the imported items, 100% of the ex-factoryprice for locally manufactured items or 75% of local expendituresfor items procured locally. Disbursementagainst the ICB contract for constructionof Hetao's trunk drain and the new Honghebu Pumping Station would be 50% of contract expenditures;this would includedisbursement at 100% against advances for equipment purchasedby contractors. Disbursementsfor construction of other civil works and buildings,made against LCB contracts,would be 30% for Hetao. Civil works, buildings, on-farm works and land developmentcarried out by LCB or force account in Yinnan would be disbursed at 40%. Disbursementsfor overseas training,study tours, and consulting serviceswould at 100% of total expenditures. Retroactivefinancing would be provided for expendituresmade after September 1, 1987 up to US$1.0 million for constructionof lateral and sublateralcanals and structures in Yinnan and up to US$700,000 for site preparationand constructionof temporaryand foundationworks at the Honghebi.Pumping Station in Hetao.
3.35 Disbursementswould be made against statementsof expenditure (SOEs) in the case of LCB civil works contracts,overseas training, study tours and consulting services,and contracts for goods and services, each costing less than US$200,000,and force account work. SOEs for irrigationand drainage,on-farm works and land development would be supportedby progress reports showing physical quantitiesand unit prices, the latter updated annuallyby the Regional PMOs and reviewed by IDA. In the case of ICB contracts, disbursementswould be made against the contracts themselvesand other supportingdocuments. In order to provi..efor efficientdisbursement, Special Accounts (one for Nei Monggol, one for Ningxia) would be opened in US dollars in banks acceptableto IDA with initial deposits of SDR 2.5 million (equivalentof US$3.5 million) for Nei Monggol and SDR 1.8 million (equivalentof US$2.5 million) for Ningxia which in each case represents the average estimated four-monthexpenditures. Applications for replenishmentof each Special Account would be submittedquarterly, or whenever the Special Account is drawn down to 50% of its initial 4eposit, whichever comes first.
3.36 It is astimated that the Hetao componentwould be completed by December 31, 1994 and for the Yinnan componentby December 31, 1992. The closing date for the project would be December 31, 1995. The disbursementexperience in China has been very favorable and better than regional averages. The project disbursementprofile is in line with that for specific investmentloans in China. Estimated schedules - 30 - of expendituresand disbursementsare given in Annex 2, Table 13.
L. Accounts and Audits
3.37 Records of expenditureson civil works, equipmentand materials,and land developmentwould be maintainedby the PHOs in participatingcounties. These records would be forwarded to the prefecturalPMOs (Ba League and Yinnan Prefecture)which would prepare consolidatedaccounts includingtheir own records of expendituresto be submitted to the Nei Monggol and Ningxia PMOs for review. The two Regional PMOs would be responsiblefor submittingreports to IDA. Assuranceswere obtained at negotiationsthat tne Regional PMOs would maintain the consolidatedaccounts for auditing annually by independentauditors acceptableto IDA and that the audited accounts would be submittedto IDA within six months of the close of each financialyear. The audited accounts would include details of withdrawals from the Credit account made on the basis of SOEs and the auditors'opinion as to whether such withdrawalswere against expenditureseligible for reimbursementby IDA.
M. EnvironmentalEffects
3.38 Salt balance studies carried out in the Hetao irrigation area show increasingsalt accumulation. Soil surveys conducted in 1957-59 and 1981-83 revealed an increase in salinized land from about 293,000 to 430,000 ha or nearly 60% of the entire Hetao area. The project would reduce salinityby leaching the soils and lowering the water table through improved drainage. This technique has been demonstratedin two pilot areas where completionof comprehensiveon-farm drainage and irrigationworks has reclaimed the salinizedsoils and restored normal crop yields after two to three years. Similar results from experimentaldrainage sites have been recorded for the Jinyintan irrigationsubarea in Yinnan. Soil salinitywould not be a problem for the other project sites in Yinnan (Guhai, Langpiziliang,and Tongxin) as the water table is low and ground elevationsare high, facilitatingnatural drainage. In both Hetao and Yinnan, the cropping pattern to be introducedwould integratecrops with pastures and tree crops; this would provide additionalvegetative cover which would ultimatelylead to an increase in the number and species of wildlife. The pumping schemes in Yinnan would also provide a source of safe drinking water for the new settlers and their livestock in contrast to existing water which is scarce and, where available,is highly mineralizedand not suitable for human consumption. Due to the low winter temperatures,the risk of exposure to water-bornediseases in the newly irrigatedareas is minimal.
3.39 Hetao's trunk drain dischargesinto the Yellow River throughWuliangsuhai Lake, a vast (290 sq. km), marshy lake which supports fisheries and production of reeds for the paper industry. Of concern to Nei Monggol project authoritiesis the possibilitythat higher salinity levels in the lake, as a result of increased inflows from drains constructedby the project,would adverselyaffect the lake's ecosystem in general and fish and reed production in particular. Project authoritieshave, therefore, commissionedthe EnvironmentalHydrogeology Research Institute, - 31 -
Ministry of Urban and Rural Constructionand EnvironmentalProtection, to direct an environmentalimpact study of the lake. The scope of the study, the institutionsinvolved, and the results of the initial phase of research are summarized in Annex 4. Preliminaryfindings indicate a temporary increase in salinity from the present 1.8 gm/l to 2.3 gm/l in the first few years after completionof project works. An increase of this magnitude is expected to have no adverse effect either on reed production or on silver and common carp (the predominant lake fish) which, according to experimentaldata, can tolerate salinity levels of up to 6 gm/l. Moreover, there is no evidence in data collected thus far to suggest that such a minor shift in salinity would adversely affect any other lake organismsor migratorybirds. The study, which will include recommendationson salinity control and measures to ensure that water quality conforms to China's environmental standards,will be completedby June 1988. An assurancewas obtained at negotiationsthat the NMWRB and the Nei Monggol Bureau of EnvironmentalProtection would continuouslymonitor water quality in the trunk drain, the main drains and WuliangsuhaiLake with the results made availableto IDA annually and that project activitieswould be in compliancewith China's national guidelineson environmentalcontrol and acceptable to IDA.
IV. PROJECT ORGANIZATIONAND MANAGEN4;T
A. Project Coordinating Committees dnd Management Offices
4.1 To ensure efficientand timely executionof the proposed project and coordinationof inputs of concernedgovernment departments and agencies, the Nei Monggol and Ningxia Regional Governmentshave set up project managementstructures with offices at the regional, prefectural,and county levels (Charts 3 and 4). Within each regional government,a Project CoordinatingCommittee (PCC) has been appointed to monitor overall constructionprogress and to resolve any procedural or legal issues that might arise related to contracts, materials procurement,funding arrangements,and land use. Each PCC is headed by a deputy govenior and comprisessenior officials from regional agriculture,planning, irrigation,finance, and materials supply agencies and major banks. The Nei Monggol PCC also includes representativesfrom the urban constructionand environmental protection office and the head of the Ba League.
4.2 Under the PCC a Project ManagementOffice (PMO) has been set up to handle the day-to-dayaspects of project execution in the prefecturesand counties participatingin the project. PMO staff consists of a Project Director appointedby the regional water resourcesbureau and about fifteenprofessionals, including irrigation engineers,agronomists, accountants, and economists,drawn principally from the water resourcesand agricultureagencies. The Ningxia PMO, in addition,plans to augment staff as necessarywith retired personnel retained on a contract basis. Specialistsfrom various social service and research units--e.g.,the Ningxia Academy of Social Sciences-- would also be hired to staff a specialunit concernedwith planning und implementingthe resettlementactivities. - 32 -
4.3 The PMOs would coordinateand superviseproject implementation in the participatingprefectures and counties;review technical standards for design, construction,operation and maintenanceof project works; disburse funds to executingunits; administerproject technicalassistance and training programs;ensure prompt delivery of project inputs; and serve as the regions' liaisonwith IDA and MWREP on project matters. In procurementof equipment,machinery, and materials,the regional PMOs would review equipment lists, prepare technicalspecifications and evaluatebids. The International Tendering Company (ITC) of the China National Technical Import Corporation (CNTIC)would handle bid invitationand award of contracts on behalf of the Ningxia Regional PMO; the China Machinery Corporation (CMC) and the China Chemical Import and Export Corporation(CCIEC) would undertake similarwork for the Nei Monggol Regional PMO. The PMOs would also maintain project accounts, file disbursement applications,and prepare for submissionto IDA twice yearly reports on project progress as well as a project completionreport.
4.4 A similar structureof PCCs and PMOs would be established for the prefecturesand counties in the project. In Nei Monggol, these units would be organizedby the Ba League and Hanghou, Linhe, Wulateqianqi,and Wuyuan counties;in Ningxia, by Yinnan Prefecture and Guyuan, Haiyuan, Lingwu, Tongxin, and Zhongning counties. The principal functionsof the prefecturalmanagement units would be (1) to coordinateuse of equipmentand transfersof funds, materials, and labor among counties, and (2) to arrange for on-site inspections before final payments to civil works contractors. The Yinnan PMO would also play a key role in coordinatingthe resettlementactivities carried out by the participatingcounties. Prefectural-levelPMOs would be set up in the Hetao General Bureau (Nei Monggol) and Yinnan Bureau of Water Resources and Electric Power (Ningxia);staff of these agencies would be made available to the project on a part-timebasi& to assist, as needed, in the various aspects of project execution.
4.5 At the county level, the PCCs would review work schedules, constructioncontracts, and annual budgets prepared by the PMOs which would be responsiblefor supervisingday-to-day activities of project execution. Each PMO would be headed by a deputy county chief and staffedwith about 10-15 people with specific responsibilitiesfor planning and finance, engineeringmanagement, agricultural technology, materials supply, training,monitoring and evaluation,and, in the case of the Yinnan component,resettlement. Major functionsof the county PMOs would be contract managementand supervisionof local units involved in constructionof project works, including the water resources bureaus' own constructionunits and other constructionand engineering companies specializingin civil works, installationof power facilities, and road building. The county PMOs would also coordinatewith local technicaldepartments, including agriculture, on provision of fertilizer and other agriculturalinputs. In Yinnan, the county PMOs would be responsiblefor organizingand carrying out all aspects of resettlement in accordancewith layouts and schedtulingdrawn up by the resettlement unit within the regional PM0 and approved by the Ningxia Agricultural ConstructionCommission (Annex 5). An assurancewas obtained during negotiationsthat the regional,prefectural, and county PCCs and PMOs - 33 - would be maintainedduring project implementationwith staff, functions and responsibilitiesacceptable to IDA.
B. FinancialArrangements
Flow of Funds
4.6 The proposed IDA Credit would be disbursedagainst expenditures for equipment,materials, earthworksin constructionand rehabilitation of canals, drains, and structures,and overseas training,study tours, and consultingservices. In line with current budgetary practice, proceeds of the Credit would be passed internallyby the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to the Nei Monggol and Ningxia Regional Governmentsat an interest rate of 4% with repaymentover 20 years including a five- year grace period. The foreign exchange risk would be borne by the Regional Governments.Most IDA funds would be disbursed directly to vendors under standard ICB arrangements. An additionalportion would be used by the regional governmentsto cover the costs of technical assistanceand training. The remainingIDA funds would be onlent by the regional governments to the governments of the Ba League and Yinnan Prefecture and by the latter, in turn, to the project counties, for activities under their respective administrations.
4.7 Project Agreements incorporatingthe above terms and conditions would be signed between IDA and the Governmentsof the Nei Monggol and Ningxia Hui AtutonomousRegions. State Council approval of the two Project Agreements as well as the DevelopmentCredit Agreement (DCA) would be conditionsof effectivenessof the Credit. The DCA would give separate treatmentto project activities in the two regions by specifyingPart A for Nei Monggol and Part B for Ningxia in tne Project Descriptionand Schedule for Allocationof the Credit and by providing for establishmentof two SpecialAccounts.
4.8 Domestic funds, which account for about 46% of project costs, would come from contributionsfrom the Central Government in the form of special budgetary allocationsand the resourcesof the regional, prefectural (league),county, and township governments. In the case of the Hetao 'component,Central Government grants would be from two sources: (i) capital constructionfunds channeledthrough MWREP and (ii) funds supplied directly to the Ba League for small-scalewater conservancyworks. Additional contributionsto the project would come from the regional government'sgrain base developmentfund, the Ba League's own budget, and labor suppliedby area farmers. For the Yinnan component, the Ningxia regional governmentwould contributeto the project a portion of special grant moneys allocated by the Central Government for developmentof poverty areas. Other contributionswould be from county budgetary allocationsand labor levies on benefitinghouseholds. An assurancewas obtained at negotiationsthat the regional and other local governmentswould provide in timely fashion the required contributions.
Recovery of Project Investments
4.9 Local branches of the AgriculturalBank of China (ABC) and the People's ConstructionBank of China (PC3C) would serve as - 34 - agents of the county and prefecture PHOs in both disbursementand recovery of project funds for a service charge to be agreed between the parties. Full recovery of the IDA portion of total project funding would be guaranteedby the bureaus of finance in the counties and prefecturesparticipating in the project. Counties would repay prefecturesand regionswhich, in turn, would repay MOF for the use of the IDA Credit. Domestic funds would be recovered on terms and conditions determinedby the local governments. Recovery of funds from project beneficiarieswould be achieved in Hetao through contributedlabor and payments received from purchase of fertilizer and other agriculturalinputs and in Yinnan, through repayments of long-term, interest-freeloans extended to benefiting households and loans to township enterpriseswhich would be based on prevailing ABC terms and conditions. Details of cost and rent recovery indices are given in Chapter 6.
C. Executionof Project Works
4.10 Constructionof the project'scanals, drains, and control structureswould, in large part, be contractedto local construction companiesunder local competitivebidding proceduresnow being drawn up by the Nei Monggol and Ningxia WRBs (para. 3.33). Contractswould be signed between the constructioncompanies and local WRBs; the PMOs would be responsiblefor contract management. County governments would organize local farm labor to carry out earthworks,erection of small structures,and land leveling. The project resettlement program would be directedby resettlement units established within the regional,prefectural, and county PMOs. These units would work closely with offices under the agriculturalcommissions which have managed region-wideresettlement over the past ten years (Annex 5). Infrastructuredevelopment, including water, power, and roads, would be carried out by the appropriateline agencies of the local governments. An assurancewas obtained at negotiationsthat the Regional PMOs would submit an annual budget and program of works for new construction and operationand maintenanceof existingproject areas to IDA for review by November 1 of each year in respect of work to be carried out in the followingyear.
D. Operation and Maintenance
Operationand MaintenanceCosts
4.11 Operation and maintenancecosts for the Hetao and Yinnan irrigationschemes would be met by a combinationof water use fees and some form--eitherfree or partial wage--of contributedlabor. Both Nei Monggol and Ningxia, in accordancewith current MWREP guidelines,are adjustingwater rates upward to encouragemore efficientwater use and to make availableat the local level funds for management,maintenance and repair of canals, drains, and structures. Water fees are collectedfrom farmersby water users groups, each representingabout 20 families,and transferredto the finance units within the appropriatecanal management offices (Charts1 and 2). Steps are being taken not only to adjust rates - 35 - upward, but to institutenew methods of assessment;that is, to shift from the fixed per mu assessmentin force until now to volumetric measurement.
4.12 In Hetao, current water charges average YO.002/cu m which is sufficient to cover only about a quarter of total 0 & M costs. The NMWRB plans to increasewater fees in the project area to YO.009/cu m in 1988 and to YO.013 three years after project completion. These levels would guarantee 100% recovery of O&M costs and allow for accumulationof funds for equipmentreplacement and other capital investments.Farmers in Yinnan would be liable for contributedlabor; but, in the case of the new lift irrigationareas, would be exempt from water charges during the first three years of the project. The fee schedule introducedfrom the fourth year on would be geared to achievingrecovery of O&M costs in accordancewith the following schedule: (i) for the lift irrigationsubareas, 40% recovery in years 4-5, 60% in years 6-7, 80% in years 8-9, and 100% beginning in year 10 and (ii) for the gravity irrigationsubareas, full recovery two years after completion of proiect works in the case of existing areas and, in the case of new areas, full recoverybeginning in the fourth year. The main reason for this extended scheduie is the limited repayment capacity of Yinnan's farmers during the frcit ten years of the project (para. 6.4). An assurancewas obtained at negotiationsthat the Regional Governmentswould collect water fees, at rates to be raised progressively,to meet full operationand maintenancecosts within three years after project completion in Hetao and, in Yinnan, by the fourth year after project completion for gravity-supplyirrigation and by the tenth year for lift-supplyirrigation.
Operation and MaintenanceManual
4.13 As part of the reorganizationof the water management structure in Hetao, the NMWRB would prepare an operation and maintenancemanual (ONM) defining design standards,specifying the dimensions and capacity of existing works, and outliningthe procedures for system operation, maintenanceand repair and the specific responsibilitiesof each management unit within the Hetao General Bureau and the Ba WRB. An assurance was obtained at negotiationsthat (a) the Nei Monggol Regional Governmentwould maintain the Hetao General Bureau in accordancewith national guidelinesfor management of large-scale irrigationareas and (b) NMWRB would submit a draft OMK to IDA for review and approval by June 1990 and the final version by December 1992. The final OMK would be distributedto all management departments, offices and sections of the General Bureau and the Ba WRB.
E. ManaRement of ProductionActivities
4.14 Departmentsof agriculture,animal husbandry, and forestry at the regional, prefecturaland county levels would be responsiblefor overseeing productionactivities throughoutthe life of the project. Seed companies, organizedas independentaccounting units under local agricultaredepartments, would supply farmerswith seeds of improved crop varieties; fruit tree seedlingswould be provided by specialized households under contractwith the local agricultureand forestr- - 36 - departments. Fertilizersand pesticideswould be available for purchase primarily through supply and marketing cooperatives(SMCs) which manage supply of inputs at the grassrootslevel in accordance with allocationplans drawn up by the agriculturedepartments. The SMCs also sell other productionitems, such as farm tools and equipment, and arrange for purchase and processing of farm output. The agricultureand animal husbandry departmentswould provide technicalextension and training to project area farmers. Credit, mainly loans to purchase fertilizer,small tractors,and farm tools, would be availablethrough existing ABC offices and rural credit cooperatives.
F. Project Launch Workshop
4.15 To initiate the implementationphase of the proposed project, Bank and local staff would conduct a project launch workshop in either Nei Monggol or Ningxia for staff of the regional,prefectural, and county PMOs. The purpose of the workshop would be to review the total process of implementationand to clarify individualtasks and responsibilitiesat each level. Topics to be covered would include: procurementand disbursementprocedures, project financialmanagement, and project monitoringand evaluation.
G. Monitoring,Evaluation and Reporting
4.16 The regional,prefectural, and county PMOs would monitor project progress and evaluate the project's economic benefits and overall impact. The county PMOs would keep a .urrentaccount of physical and financialprogress of the project. Physical indicators would include such items as km of canals and drains constructed, ha of land leveled, and tons of fertilizerprocured. Financial reports would track project expendituresand claims for disbursement against Credit proceeds. Informationon financialand physical progress would be submitted semi-annuallyto the prefecturalPMOs which would prepare a progress report to be forwarded to the regional PMOs. Routine monitoringof physical and financialprogress would enable project managementto identifyproblems and make whatever adjustmentsmight be required in institutionalarrangements, procurement schedules,and resource flows. As part of the process of project evaluation,early in the implementationperiod the prefecturalPMOs would survey the project areas to determine,inter alia, current levels of inputs and production,crop yields, salinity levels, and farm incomes. These surveys would form the base line from which to measure changes resulting from the project. An on-going evaluation of the project would be included in semi-annualprogress reports which would be prepared by the regional PMOs for submissionto IDA within one month of the end of each half year. The final, broad assessmentof the project's impact would be the substanceof the Project CompletionReport to be submittedto IDA not later than six months followingcompletion of Credit disbursements. A list of key monitoring indicatorsis given in Annex 2. - 37 -
V. PRODUCTIONMARKETS, AND PRICES
A. Production
5.1 The project would bring about only moderate change to existing croppingpatterns in Hetao and Jinyintan, the two areas where irrigation and drainage works would be improved or extended, but would generate large increases in yields and output of annual and permanent crops and livestockproducts. Since little change would be expected in these two project areas in the absence of new investment,current cropping patterns,yields, and production are considered representativeof the future "without"project situation. Irrigatedagriculture would be expanded or greatly improved in the lift irrigationareas of Yinnan, supportinga large increase in crop and livestockproduction on these previouslyuncropped or low productivitylands. Current and with project cropping patterns, average yields, and production are summarized in Table 5,1.
Cropping Patterns
5.2 In Hetao, it is expected that the project would bring about some change in the area planted to individualannual crops, slightly increase the multiple cropping index, and significantly expand permanent crops' share of total cultivatedarea. Wheat would continue to be the most important crop, but would decline from over 40% of the annual crop area at present to just over 30% of the expanded annual crop area at full development. In order to support the large planned increasesin animal numbers and livestockproductivity, it is expected that corn and fodder crops would increase from about 20% of annual crop area at present to one third at full development. The area planted to other annual crops, includingsunflower, linseed, sugarbeet, and vegetables, would not be expected to change significantlywith the project. The growing season is generally too short to allow for double cropping, though farmerswould expand the small area of follow-on melon at full development. Permanentcrops would increase from 6% of Hetao's cultivatedland area at present to more than 15% at full development. Increasesin area planted to windbreaks and improved pasture would account for nearly all of this increase. Windbreaks,mostly poplars, are common in China's northern irrigation areas and are harvested for constructionpoles beginning in the sixth year after establishment.
5.3 In Yinnan, the project would bring about no significant change in the croppingpatterns of the 4900 ha to be rehabilitated in Jinyintanbut would establisha new wheat-basedcropping pattern on 31,350 ha to be servicedby lift irrigation. Due to suitability of the soils and long standing tradition,rice is the dominant crop in the Jinyintan area. All other annual and permanent crops, includingwheat, corn, sunflower,vegetables, windbreaks, and tree fruits, together occupy about 70% of cultivatedarea. In the area to be serviced by lift irrigation,wheat is expected to occupy about 30% of the cultivatedland area at full development. Wheat's dominant position in the cropping pattern reflects the fact that it is the staple food in Ningxia's upland areas and is well suited to growing - 38 -
Table Ms CROPAREAS, YIELDS AND PRDUCTION
Present At FuLt Devatopent Change in Area Yietd Output Area Yietd Output Output Project Area he Vho '000 ha t/ha '000 '000 Hetec AnnuaLCrops -wheat 73,000 2.50 183 e8,000 4.13 273 90 -corn\a/ 28,000 3.25 91 39,000 6.00 234 145 -sunftcer 21D000 1.50 32 23,000 2.50 56 26 tLinseed 7,000 1.10 a 7,000 1.65 12 4 -sugerboat 15,W0 20.00 300 15,000 30.00 450 150 -vgotabtes 11,000 18.00 19 15,000 25.00 375 177 -foddor\b/ 9,000 2.00 16 31,000 3.75 t11 100 subtotal (cultivated)163,000 196,000 -_eLon(foLLowon) 7,000 12.50 88 i4,000 20.00 260 i1 aubtotot (sown) 170,000 210,000 PermanentCrops -timber(poles) 10,000 255\c/ 2550 28,000 255\c/ 7140 4580 -improvedposturo\b/ - - - 14,000 2.0 29 29 Totl (cultivated) 173,000 238,000 Anim,L Huobandry -LargeaniaLs (1'0001 98 107 -sheep('000) 591 1500 moat (tonsl 2069 1270 102 skin (1'000) 148 75 227 wooL (tons) 709 2700 1991 Yinnon (Liftirrigation) AnnuaLCrops -wheat - - - 9U000 4.50 41 41 corn\W/ - - - 4,000 6.75 27 27 -1titet - - - 2,0J0 3.75 a a -sunfLmowr - - - 2,000 2.50 5 5 -Linseed - - - 1,000 2.25 2 2 -vegetabtes - - - 1,000 22.50 23 23 subtotoL (cuLtivated) - 1S,000 PermanentCrops -timber (poLes) - - - 3,850 255\c/ 962 -orchard - - - 3,800 15.0 57 57 -parenniaLposture\b/ - - - 4,700 4.1 1S 1S Totat (cultivated) 31,350 AnimaLHusbandry -Large animlts ('000) - 24 -sheep ('000) - 70 meat (tons) - 1445 1445 skins ('W0) - 43 43 wooL (tons) - 300 300 \W/ IncLudes barleyand other coarsegrains. \b/ Yietd expressedas hay equivelent. \o/ Yiotd figure Ie 255 polsopar ha per annum. - 39 - conditions in Tongxin, Guhai, and Langpiziliang. Corn, millet, and perennialpasture (alfalfa)would occupy another 30% of the land area and would support the planned developmentof livestockproduction. The remaining land area would be planted to annual crops, including sunflower,linseed, melons and vegetables,and to windbreaks and orchard.
Crop Yields and Production
5.4 The project would increaseexisting yields in Hetao and Jinyintan primarilyby leaching salt from the snil, reducing waterlogging,and increasingthe use of improved farm inputs. At present, yield levels vary significantlywithin these two project areas in accordancewith differencesin salinity levels and extent of waterlogging,ranging from less than 50% to more than 75% of expected average full developmentyields. Based on average yields attained on land in or near the project area with adequate drainage and little salinity,it is expected that average wheat yields wcould increase by about 65%, from 2.5 tons/ha at present to 4.1 tons/ha at full development. Despite a reduction in area sown to wheat of 7,000 ha, this expected yield increasewould be sufficient to increase wheat productionat full developmentby 90,000 tons. Average corn yields are expected to increase by 85%, from 3.25 tons/ha at present to 6.0 tons/ha at full development. In combinationwith increasedarea sown to corn, this expected yield increasewould result in an increase in corn production at full developmentof more than 140,000 tons. Reflecting somewhatbetter soils and drainage,expected yields for wheat and corn in the lift irrigationarea are expected to be slightly higher than in Hetao and Jinyintan, reaching 4.5 tons/ha and 6.75 tons/ha respectivelyat full development. Current and full developmentyields and production levels for other annual and permanent crops are detailed in Table 5.1. It is expected that, with the exception of the area planted to fruit trees, it will require 9 to 10 years to achieve these yield and output levels throughoutall of the project areas.
Livestock
5.5 Livestockproduction in the project areas is based upon small ruminants,mostly sheep, with some draft animals and a small but increasingdairy herd. Currently,sheep feed on browse, which is limitedby the short growing season and overgrazing,crop residues, and some natural pasture located on saline lands within Hetao and Jinyintan. With the project, livestockproduction will be more closely integratedinto crop productionwith fodder crops, permanent pasture, and improved grasslandbecoming the new primary feed resources. These feeds will be supplementedby crop residues and browse and, during critical periods of animal development,be complementedby concentratefeeding of corn or other coarse grains. Sheep numbers are expected to increase from 0.59 million at present to 1.5 million at full developmentin Hetao and to reach 0.17 million at full developmentin Yinnan. Reflecting greatly improved nutrition and management practices,average annual offtake per animal is expected to increase from 3.5 kg of meat and 1.2 kg of wool at present to 8.5 kg of meat and 1.8 kg of wool at full development. - 40
B. Markets
5.6 The project will produce commoditieswhich are in short supply at the regional or national levels and, consequently,market prospects for the project's incrementaloutput of these goods are excellent. Incrementalproduction of four of the project's eight principaloutputs -- wheat and other grains, sugar, wool, and timber -- will serve to partially offset large and growing regional and/or national imports of these goods. China is a net exporter of the other four principalproject outputs -- edible vegetable oil, lamb, fruits and vegetables,and animal hides. Domestic demand for these products is very strong and is continuingto expand in response to rapid income growth in both urban and rural areas. It is expected that the bulk of incrementaloutput of these products will be consumed in the project areas or in nearby urban areas with only limited quantities available for export outside the regions or the country.
Wheat and Other Grains
5.7 In 1985-86,when the volume of grain exports equalled or exceeded imports, China achieved self-sufficiencyin grain production for the first time in over two decades. This was accomplishedthrough a large increase in coarse grain exports in 1985 and a more modest decrease in fine grain imports. However, as shown in Table 5.2, China and the regions remain large net importersof wheat and other fine grains.\l/ Annual net imports of wheat, at 0.78 and 5.38 million tons, account for about 75% and 100% of Nei Monggol's and national net fine grain imports respectively. Consequently,there would be no difficulty in selling incrementalproject wheat production,which would account for 42% of incrementalgrain output, to establishedregional markets which now rely on other provinces for a portion of their supply. Since Nei Monggol importsa small portion of its wheat directly from foreign suppliers, incrementalwheat productionwill also help reduce internationalwheat imports. Corn, rice, and millet are expected to account for the remaining58% of project incremental grain production. Although China is now a net exporter of these grains, Nei Monggol currently importsover 250,000 tons of rice and about 250,000 tons of corn and other coarse grains so that, together,the regions remain net importersof these grains. Consequently,it is expected that incrementalproject output of corn, rice, and millet will partially offset there growing regional importsand provide a portion of the feedgrainnecessary for continued expansionof livestockproduction.
\l/ Ningxia has also achieved basic grain self-sufficiencyin recent years. However, since grain trade data disaggregatedby grain are not available for Ningxia, the Regional balance of fine and coarse grain trade is not known. - 41 -
Table 5.2: REGIONAL AND NATIONAL *'.j'5ALNET TRADE IN PRINCIPAL PROJECT OUMPUTS
Nei Monggol Ningxia China
Net Annual Net Annual Net Annual Trade Net Trade Net Trade Net Coimodity Unit Status Trade Status Trade Status Trade
Importer at National Level Wheat '000 tons M 780 \a/ \a/ M 5,380 Sugar '000 tons X 51 X 4 M 1,726 Wool '000 tons X 16 M 1 M 111 Timber '000 cum X 1756 M 209 M 9,710
Exporter at Fational Level Edible oil '000 tons X 18 N 2 X 407 Lamb '000 tons X 4 M 6 X na Hides '000 skins X 1571 M 37 X 17,790 Fruits & vegetables '000 tons na na na na X 1,001
Source: Nei Monggol and Ningxia Regional AgriculturalCommissions for regional data and 1986 Chinese StatisticalYearbook (Beijing: SSB, 1986) for national data. \a/ Ningxia has achievedbasic self-sufficiencyin grain production. Data are not available for net trade in wheat. Note: Regional data are annual averages for 1981-85 (Sixth Five Year Plan) and national figures are for 1985. "Ml indicatesnet importer, "X" indicatesnet exporter,and "na" indicatesnot available. Edible oil includes oilseeds expressed in oil equivalent. Wool includes cashmere. Hides include sheep, goat and cattle skins.
Sugar, Wool and Timber
5.8 As shown in Table 5.2, China imports large quantities of sugar, wool, and timber. The 1985 import value of these goods was over US$ 1.4 billion, accounting for nearly 4% of China's total imports in that year. Driven by rapid income growth and increasingexports of processedwoolen goods, growing domestic demand for these goods has not been adequatelymatched by growth in production. Nei Monggol is a significantsurplus producer of these goods. Ningxia now produces a small surplus of sugar but is a net importer of wool and timber. Thus, while a portion of incrementeloutput of these three products will be sold within the regions, it is expected that the majority will be sold to ready markets in other provinces -- helping to offset China's growing imports of these goods. - 42 -
Edible Oil, Lamb, Fruits and Vegetables,and Hides
5.9 In response to rapid rural and urban income growth in recent years, domestic demand for vegetable oil, lamb, fruits and vegetables,and animal skins has increasedsubstantially. Despite relativelytight supplies of these products,China manages to export large quantitiesof vegetable oil, animal hides, and fruits and vegetables and lesser quantitiesof lamb. Nei Monggol is a significantsurplus producer of animal skins, supplying almost 1.6 million hides to the national market annually,and sells lesser quantitiesof vegetable oil and lamb to other provinces. Ningxia, by comparison,has a small trade deficit in each of these three goods. No data are availablefor regional trade in fruits and vegetables, but it is known that the regions export some specialty fruits and vegetables -- includingChinese wolfberry and "facai" -- and that limited quantitiesof these high value fruits and vegetables are sold abroad. It is expected that a portion of incrementalproject output of oilseeds, lamb, fruits and vegetables,and especiallyhides would contributeto China's efforts to sustain or increase current export levels of these goods. It is likely,however, that most of the output would be sold on the regional and national markets in order to satisfy rapidly growing domestic demand.
C. Prices
5.10 In recent years, China has implementeda number of reforms intended to expand the role of markets and prices in directing the production and trade of most agriculturalcommodities. In 1984, the quota procurementsystem was replaced by a contractualprocurement system under which the Governmentsets contract prices annually in response to changing market conditions. Although the new contract procurement system has not been uniformly implementedin all regions or for all products, the overall effect has been to bring contract prices for most crops more closely in line with market prices and to allow most farmers somewhat greater autonomy in establishingcropping patterns. In 1985, wholesale and retail prices and marketingof fruits, vegetables,livestock products, and a range of other commoditieswere decontrolled. In response,prices of these products rose by 20 to 40% in the first half of 1985 and the bulk of commercial production of these goods is now traded on the free market. As a result of these reforms, project farmers now face prices which closely approximate world or free market prices in the case of inputs and outputs which are actlivelytraded in the free market, but which differ, sometimes greatly, from world market prices in the case of products which are not traded outside the state-runmarketing system. The state-run marketing system's "procurement"prices are compared with free market and world prices (adjustedfor internationaland domestic transport costs) for selected project inputs and outputs in Table 5.3. - 43 -
Table 53: PRICES FOR SELECTED INPUTS AND OUTPUTS (yuan per ton)
Sugar Greasy Nitrogen Price Wheat Corn Oilseeds beet Lamb Wool (31%) DAP
Domestic Contract 442 328 910 90 3400 6060 360 700 Negotiated 600 500 840 110 3000 6000 Free market 620 500 900 4600 6000
share procured at contract prices: 90% 15% 95% 100% 6% 75% 100% 100%
World 1987 764 240 502 78 4167 12783 440 872 1995 875 393 699 149 691 1071
Source: Nei Monggol AgriculturalCommission for domestic prices and EPD ("Half Yearly Revision of Commodity Price Forecasts,"September, 1987) for world prices. Note: World prices have been adjusted for internationaland domestic transport costs and are expressed in 1987 constant yuan. See Annex 3 for commoditydefinitions. Percentagefigures are share of commercial output procured at contractprices.
Input Prices
5.11 Farm inputs,which are mostly distributedthrough the state-runmarketing system or whose allocation is otherwise controlled by the state, have been underpricedin the project area and throughout China for many years. Since several recent agriculturalreforms have focussed on increasinginput prices, however, these distortionsare now in most cases limited and on the decline. Recent reforms, for instance,have promoted the financialand managerial independenceof China's seed companies. Most seed companiesin the project area are now profit-makingenterprises, selling their seed to project farmers at prices sufficientto maintain adequate profit margins. Chemical fertilizerprices, by comparison,understate the cost of imported fertilizerby an estimated22% and 25% in the case of nitrogenousand phosphaticproducts respectively. Further, the state-runmarketing system uses its near complete monopoly of high quality fertilizer supplies to influencecropping patterns and marketing rates -- farmers agreeing to sell grain to the state at low "procurement"prices are guaranteedchemical fertilizerat low "planned"prices. However, current reforms call for increasingfertilizer prices to levels which w.ouldadequately cover productionand marketingcosts and pilot programs are now underway to expand free market trade of fertilizer. Water supply has also been heavily subsidized,but this problem will be corrected through marked increasesin water charges under the - 44 - project (para 4.12). In stm, most farm inputs are now underpriced but these subsidiesare being reduced and the related distortionsin applicationrates and cropping patterns rapidly eliminated.
Output Prices
5.12 Project farmers receive free market prices for products, including lamb, hides, fruits and vegetables,and timber (poles), which are traded mostly or at least ir.large part outside the state- run marketing system. These free market prices are sufficientto make production of these products profitable and, in the case of goods which are traded internationally,closely approximateworld market prices. By comparison,project farmers receive contract or negotiated contract pr'.cesfor products which are procured by the state-run marketing system, includingwheat, corn and other grains, sugar, wool, and oilseeds. Contract prices for these products closely approximate loc.- free market prices (with the exceptionof wheat), but differ sha.-i.yfrom internationalprices.
5.13 As shown in Table 5.3, roughly 90% of commercial wheat in Hetao is procured by the state-runmarketing system at contract prices which are 30% below the free market price and 40% below the current internationalprice. Similarly, 75% of commercialwool is procured at contract prices which are less than half the internationalprice. By comparison,the state-runmarketing system procures about 85%, 100%, and 95% of dommercialcorn, sugar beet, and oilseed production at negotiated prices which exceed the internationalprice by 155%, 40%, and 90% respectively. The effect of these distortionsis somewhat muted by the low proportion of commercializedproduction -- farmers market 30-40% of their crops in Hetao and 20-30% in Yinnan. Further, as shown in Table 5.3, expected increases in future international prices would indicate that the current distortionsin domestic prices of corn, sugar beet, and oilsesds will decline sharply in the near future. Although the governmenthas called for a one or two year hiatus in agriculturalpricing reform, pilot programs to eliminate the differentialsbetween procurement,free market, and world prices are planned for various parts of the country.
Financial and EconomicAnalysis
5.14 The project financialanalysis has been conductedusing 1987 procurementor negotiatedprices for those inputs and outputs traded primarilywithin the state-runmarketing system and free market prices for those traded primarily outside that system. Future financialprice trends for individualcommodities remain uncertain, but it is unlikely that administeredproducer prices will suffer significantdeclines (at least in local currency terms) since the government is committedto maintainingagricultural production incentives,and free market prices will generallyreflect buoyant demand prospects. For the economic analysis, farm input and output values are based upon current internationalprices and Bank Group commodityprice forecasts,adjusted for internationaland domestic transpo t costs, and expressed in 1987 constant yuan. Conversion factors are.used to derive economic prices for items which do not enter internationaltrade. The current financialwage rate ranges - 45 - between Y4.0 per workday in Hetao and Y3.0 per workday in Yinnan. Given the severe underemploymentin Yinnan and the fact that current wages in Hetao overstate labor's marginal product by an amount roughly equal to the imputed rental "alue of farmland,the economic value of unskilled labor has been estimatedat about 50% of these financial wage rates multiplied by the consumptionconversion factor of 1.35. The shadow wage rates adopted in the economic analysis are thlusY2.7 and Y2.0 in Hetao and Yinnan respectively. Current and projected financialand economic prices and conversion factors are summarized in Annex 3.
VI. PRODUCTION,BENEFITS, AND RISKS
A. Productionand Benefits
6.1 The project would improve irrigationand drainage on 214,900 ha in Hetao and Jinyintan and expand or complete irrigation for an additional 31,350 ha in Yinnan. At full development,annual incrementaloutput is expected to include 133,000 tons of wheat, 181,000 tons of corn and other grains, 38,000 tons of oilseeds, over 600,000 tons of sugar beet, fruits and vegetables,over 12,000 tons of lamb and other meats, 2300 tons of wool, and additional quantities of timber and animal hides. Expressed in 1987 constant dollars, the value of incrementaloutput will be about US$ 93 million annually. Additionally,the project would provide produtctive employment,improved living conditionsand safe drinking water for 54,150 settlers in Yinnan.
B. Farm Incomes
6.2 The project wov.ldimprove income levels and living standardsfor about 122,630households, including 96,300 and 15,500 families currently residing in Hetao and Yinnan respectivelyand an additional 10,833 families yet to resettle to the Yinnan project area. Includingoff-farm income, annual averageper capita income within the project areas ranges from about Y510 in Hetao to Y325 in Jinyintan, with farm income accountingfor Y420 and Y310 respectively. Average per capita income in Hetao exceeds 1986 national average rural income (Y424) by 20% and Nei Nonggol Regional average rural income by about 30g. Income levels in Jinyintan are more than 20% below the national average but roughly equal Ningxia average rural income -- somewhat below the levels achieved in more productive irrigatedagricultural areas but well above the levels of upland rainfed areas. With average per capita income levels falling below Y80, settler families currently residing in the upland areas outside the Yinnan project area are amongst China's poorest. Government transfers in cash and kind are currently sufficientto raise income levels to about Y200 per year in these areas.
6.3 An analysis of farm incomes has been undertaken for each of these three groups: model A tracks annual income for a representative household with 4.3 family members currentlyfarming 1.7 ha, increasing to 2.2 ha at full development,in the Hetao area; model B for a family of 5 farming 1.4 ha in the Jinyintanarea; and model C for a family of 5 farming 1.35 ha in the Yinnan lift irrigationarea. Model A shows - 46 - that total household income, at about Y2200, is little changed in the first three years of the Hetao subproject,then increases sharply during years 4 through 8, and reaches its full developmentlevel of Y3910 in year 13. The trend in model B is much the same except that, since farm size in Jinyintan is significantlyless than in Hetao, full developmenttotal income is expected to be about Y3220.' By comparison, farm income in model C increasesquite steadily in all years until reaching a peak of Y2760 in year 11. Total income is constant at Y1000 in years 1 through 4, however, since governmenttransfers and project related employment (to be compensatedat the rate of Y1.4 per workday during the first years of project construction)will be tailored to maintain annual household income at this level. At full development,rural per capita income in constant terms for the three populationsis expected to reach Y910, Y645, and Y568, representing increasesof 80%, 100%, and 185% over current levels respectively. Farm budgets and models used in the analysis are detailed in Annex 3.
6.4 Poverty Alleviation. Ningxia authoritiesestimate that some 400,000 people, or 10% of the Regional total, have annual income levels below the national poverty line of Y200. Poverty in Ningxia is extreme by Chinese standards -- average annual income for these 400,000 as a whole is only about Y80 per capita, or less than one-fifth the national average for rural areas -- and poverty alleviationin the Region is a national priority. The project would increase income levels above the poverty line for some 100,000 of these poor, or about one-quarterof the Regional total. About half of the beneficiaries would be members of householdsto be resettledunder the project. The analysis of farm incomes indicatesthat the income of these new settlerswould surpass the poverty line in the fifth year after resettlementand reach a peak of about Y570 per capita beginning in year 11. In addition to adequate supplies of safe drinking water and fuel for cooking and heating, which are currentlynonexistent or in short supply for many of these poor, new settlerswill receive partial funding for first year housing and farm inputs and enjoy greater access to health, education,and other social service infrastructure. The other half of the beneficiarieswould be recent settlers,now erngaging ir.their first or second year of irrigatedcrop production,who would benefit from improvementand completionof existing lift irrigation facilities. These recent settlerswould surpass the poverty line and achieve full developmentincome levels one or two years prior to new settlers. housing and most social service infrastructurefor these recent settlers is already in place.
C. Cost and Rent Recovery
6.5 Recovery of project costs and rents would come in the form of (i) contributedlabor during project construction,(ii) payments received from beneficiariesfor the purchase of chemical fertilizer,planting materials,animal stock and other farm inputs, (iii) increasedwater charges, and (iv) contributedlabor for project OEM. In addition, the completionof the Yinnan subprojectwill eliminate the need for public outlays, amountingto nearly Y7 million annually, as welfare payments to some 22,830 householdsin and around the project area. Public sector outlays are defined as project investmentcosts, includingsettlement, and O&M costs, but exclude - 47 - the Yinbei studies and those farm developmentcosts which will be recovered through sales to farmers, fees for service, or loan repayment. Cost recovery includes reduced public outlays for welfare assistance. On this basis, the project's cost recovery index is estimated to be 27%. Rent recovery at full developmentavezages 12%, ranging from 4% for Jinyintan to 24% for Yinnan's lift irrigationsubcomponent. Rent recovery is greatest for Yinnan's lift irrigationsubcomponent since all water charges and contributedlabor for O&H are incremental. Rent recovery for Hetao and Jinyintan are comparativelyless since only a portion of future water charges and contributedlabor can be considered to be incremental. Discountedover the life of the project, the rent recovery index is 20% for the project as a whole and ranges from 8% for Jinyintan to 76% for Yinnan's lift irrigation subcomponent. These levels of cost and rent recovery are consideredadequate since (i) procurementprices for wheat, the project'smost importantoutput, are below market prices (para 5.12) and (ii) there would be full recovery of O&H costs (para 4.12). Details of the estimates of cost ani rent recovery are presented in Annex 3.
D. Economic Analysis
6.6 The economic analysis was carried out for the project as a whole, for each of the investmentsin rehabilitationof existing irrigationand drainage works in Hetao and in Yinnan, and for the expansion and completionof lift irrigationin Yinnan. The total economic investmentcost used in the analysis,Y796 million, includes physical contingenciesplus the economic value of contributedlabor in project constructionand excludes price contingencies. The economic investmentcost for Hetao, at Y622 million, excludes the purchase costs of O&M machinery and equipment and of agricultural machinery and materials since appropriateoperating and capital recovery costs have been entered into the estimatedbudgets for O&M and agriculturalproduction. Similarly,the economic investmentcost for Yinnan, at Y174 million, excludes settlementcosts since, in the case of agriculturalinputs, these costs are fully covered in the agriculturalproduction operatingcosts and, in the case of first year housing and constructionof roads, clinics, schools and other social infrastructure,the unquantifiedsocial benefits would at laast equal costs. The cost of the Yinbei Studies has also been excluded since it is not immediatelyrelated to agricultural production in Yinnan. The analysis includes recovery of economic O&M costs in full throughoutthe life of the project. Economic O&M costs include electricityvalued at the estimatedlong run marginal cost of thermal power of YO.07 per kWh (insteadof the subsidized rate of YO.03 per kWh currently in use in the Yinnan lift irrigation area), contributedlabor valued at shadow wage rates (para 5.14), as well other labor, management,maintenance, repair and replacement costs expressedas economic values. All economic values were converted to local currency at the official exchange rate expected to prevail at negotiationsof Y3.71 - US$1.00. Cost benefit streams for Hetao, Jinyintan,and Yinnan's lift irrigationarea are presented in Annex 3. - 48 -
6.7 Using these assumptionsand discountingcosts and benefits over 30 years, the project's oveiall economic rate of return (ERR) is 20%, ranging from 17% for YinnanNs lift irrigationcomponent to 21% for rehabilitationof irrigationand drainage in both Hetao and Jinyintan (Table 6.1). At a discount rate of 12%, which is considered to approximatethe opportunitycost of capital in China, the net present value of the project is Y422 million (US$114equivalent). Sensitivityof the ERRs for each of the project areas was tested for cost overruns, increasedO&M costs, shortfallsfrom projectedyields or prices, eliminationof tree crops, animal husbandry or fishponds from the analysis, increasedeconomic cost of labor, and a combination of cost overruns and a shortfallin projectedyields. None of these variants to the analysiswas sufficientto reduce the ERR of the project or any of its subcomponentsbelow acceptablelevels. Switching values (value of the variable tested at which the NPV of the project, with benefits and costs discountedat 12%, is reduced to zero) were calculatedand are presented in Annex 3.
Table 6.1: SUMMARY OF RATE OF RETURN ANALYSIS
Economic Net Economic Economic Present Value of Rate of Value Investment Return at 12% Subarea or Variation (Y mln) (%) (Y mln)
Base Case Hetao -Rehabilitation 622 21 347 Yinnan -Expansion 158 17 63 -Rehabilitation 16 21 12 of which: fishponds 4 20 2 -Total 174 17 75
Total Project 796 20 422
Variations from Base Case (Total Project) -Investmentcosts up 20% 17 317 -O&M costs up 50% 18 334 -Full developmentyields down 10% 17 213 -Field crop prices down 20% 15 129 -No tree crops in analysis 19 326 -No animal husbandry in analysis 18 323 -No fishponds in analysis 20 418 -Shadowwage up 50% 18 328 -Investmentcosts up 20% plus full developmentyields down 10% 14 108 ------49 -
E. ProjectRisks
6.8 The project faces no significantmanagement or technical risks. The project management structureis already in place at the regional level and a parallel structureis being establishedat the prefecturaland county levels. The NMWRB and NXWRB, the leading agencies involved in planning and constructionof project works, are adequately staffed with qualifiedengineers and managers and have had decades of experience in construction,operation and maintenance of large-scaleirrigation schemes. Further, the reorganizationof the Hetao water resource agencies (paras.2.17 and 2.18) has been designed to correct for previous deficienciesin management of drainage operations and project-financedprograms of overseas and local trainingwould upgrade the management and technicalskills of staff at all levels. Of concern to Nei Monggol project authorities is the possibilitythat higher salinity levels in the Wuliangsuhai Lake would adverselyaffect the ecosystem in general and fish and reed production in particular.However, project authoritieshave commissioned a detailed environmentalimpact study and preliminaryfindings indicate that the project would bring about only minor changes in salinity levels. Project authoritieswill arrange for continuousmonitoring of salinity levels and will provide detailed summariesto the Bank annually. Lastly, market prospects for the project's incrementaloutput are excellentand, should the profitabilityof any individualcrop or product decrease to unattractivelevels, project farmers would have ample latitude to shift productiontoward more profitable alternatives.
VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMEATION
7.1 At negotiations, assuranceswere obtained from the Regional Governmentsthat:
(a) adequate quantitiesof chemical fertilizer nutrients would be procured and made available to farmers and that an annual program for such provisionwould be prepared and submitted to IDA for review prior to November 1 of each year (paras. 3.13 and 3.20);
(b) training would be carried out in accordancewith a training program which was agreed with IDA at negotiations(paras. 3.15 and 3.22);
(c) the resettlementcomponent would be carried out in accordance with the plan submittedto IDA in October 1987 and agreed at negotiations;
(d) in Ningxia, (i) a working group assisted by suitably- qualified consultants, would be establishedunder the Regional Project Management Office to study the Yinbei area with terms of reference for the study satisfactoryto IDA and (ii) a report on the study would be submitted to IDA by June 30, 1991 (para. 3.21);
(e)i LCB procedures for Nei Monggol and Ningxia as well as sample documenta would be submittedto IDA for review and apnrnval by June 30, 1988 and, in any case, prior to bid invitation (para. 3.33); - 50 -
(f) Regional PMOs would maintain the consolidated accounts for auditing by independentauditors acceptable to IDA and that the audited accounts would be submittedto IDA within six months of the close of each financialyear (para. 3.37);
(g) in Nei Monggol, the NMWRB and the Nei Monggol Bureau of Environmental Protection would continuously monitor salinity levels in the trunk drain, the main drains and WuliangsuhaiLake with the results made availableto IDA annually and that project activities would be in compliance with China's national guidelines on environmentalcontrol and acceptableto IDA (para. 3.39);
(h) the regional,prefectural, and county PCCs and PMOs would be maintainedduring project implementationwith staff, functionsand responsibilitiesacceptable to IDA (para. 4.5);
(i) the regional and other local governmentswould provide in a timely fashion the required contributions(para. 4.8);
(j) the regional PMOs would submit an annual budget and program of works for new constructionand operationand maintenanceof existing project areas to IDA for review by November 1 of each year in respect of work to be carried out in the followingyear (para. 4.10);
(k) water fees would be collected,at rates to be raised progresively,to meet full operationand maintenancecosts within three years after project completion in Hetao and, in Yinnan, by the fourth year after project completionfor gravity-supply irrigation and by the tenth year for lift-supplyirrigation (para. 4.12); and
(1) in Nei Monggol, (i) the the Regional Governmentwould maintain the Hetao General Bureau in accordancewith national guidelineson mangementof large irrigationsystems and (ii) the NMWRB would submit a draft operationand maintenancemanual to IDA for review and approvalby June 1990 and a final version by December 1992 (para. 4.13).
7.2 The conditions of effectivenesswould be approval by the State Council of the DevelopmentCredit Agreement and the execution of Project Agreementswith the Nei Monggol and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Regional Governments.
7.3 Subject to the above conditions, the Northern Ir:igation Project would constitutea suitablebasis for an IDA Cre,iitof SDR 72.7 (US$103million equivalent)on standard IDA terms, with a maturity of 35 years includingfive years of grace, to the People's Republic of China. - 51 -
Annex 1 Table 1
NTfH ZUXIATTONP0JET
stmea Deals tatistiom Iin
Administrative oar Projct Area go L"us (parts ot (sm" emtieel /a rour co tiea /b
Area (sq km) 641 346 Popelatian lOOW] 1410 410 AgricuLturat poPULation $010 414 Farm Lbor ftrea 4U 1a
Effective Irrigated area VOODhe) i g/a 173 Area soo to emwel crope 406 13 Posture S Boded areseorchards 40 9 Soo area crops ('00 hal 4 1a Wheat 1 .78 Corn 1 $ &nf tlr 4 31 Fla (ftor oI a) 4 Sgar bet 41 1l Other *rest Ua elons and veltales U Fodder
Livestock VOOO hbad/d 8 677 Large animates inclzuding 347 U Donkes a fMtes 108 3 CattLe 1 ftreassU4 bOll nivlse, inoltudinog 03 Sep 1458 4W /a Counties area Hosqheu Li1ms bysant Qinqi, Ooakwg Zhengq. and osuqi. /s Inol*udx port of tour ettimoe Neoghes,Linhoe UdlumaaBhonqi. /c Etctiweo Irrigaetd aoe within the eatire hte Irrigation area toutLs U0,000 ha sinese it eslnsludea 11,600 he In Yikezho Logue (to the oeth of Deagkouland Uatou niipa" (it(to the set of Saleteqinqi). /d Figures include Livest1ek Inside and owuside the irrigatoed area, Outside the irrigated area, tetel Livestok (in '00 heudl14081Large annea0Lo cattLoeNl; hbreoroo0smL n100to =1Uhg*heep*lO.
-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- - 2- ANNEX 1 Table2
Ylreen Co1p0t1et00el. etlttes ("a)
Prefet"re Pretwolvre (tive ometlee, (six Goeslotls two citie)/V
Aren (e km)I 13S4 3u PNLB%1 V1' 1467 14 A10iotweL pepuLetlen 13 Pam U f mg 43 8 Effetive iur1esd ar (l'o00he) 57 4 Annse too cp 77 poetere a a Ue" orseorsherds 1 1 Oropped cc.. ['D0Ub.) US Oett 731 Ni.. 1 O Cm I el orea r1 vger Met. Livetook (| heed) UE
P_*beSs 13473 I145
/a Yt.... Proefectre tecLudeui ma&'Mqse 210tueapais odttas sad WSM oseuseleof Zetegl, Ze_nl.g. Li_gue Yeehl ed Tlheop. /b hlye. Prefecture imeLuiss leysce Iblen. X1JI1 Losnub J1ven md Pnys sooetl. allwo aquatom os omenJa elm~**&aoamummg .au~pesa ua * seu Sow sega 0's. iuss *U esm gem too" aues e',ia V'in 6055 ,ub * * $'guM3oU usia2I'm 35618sUia *siaIW'ai'm. Seta*3 to338Sus5 rsaaUa96 g,emgem6 voseSM somaIowa SUNa58a ro201 ia s.iarusaii usu_uoa
0 aLI'- 5Soma sliaiSD 9oUaasowI vsa:3on 301,*A a*r1Su isowalu SeatsOi r'SIiL rouelm 30515Va *I120Iain 15 UUI1. UU AA98_
0 * gOs*-& p g. ale SQS 1ola 55 il #0a0a1oc 5061 303 g*. *... XU* 30gI' *-9- So& VIS est ,015 saia VW Seat eofe s' - Sol- , _ 3 usius&u s to- 0l0 Los feet 3ss .0a8 -0. Seat Sol$ Ve -- s1s- rt-
*I'S-a ISo I'S- tote5 e'll a'll toga ss Via Sea 06 305-Cot9- i0-9InbUUi 9Bli-9ilS t coo- tl& se al2 2069B- @a8 alga BOB e'ss 900 2o- IS@- lbaint^@1 ao #U 16- SO- set cl9o 1'Ii a Olg W'5 soot a's t-0 Got- 900S- 011!4 , .e too 9l's- 90S- VeL 8et& 0'ta P-8 iloa I's& 3l 60e- gle- 011. MAUbRA
a|i^F|Z; 60 elm el"- au res Soma96a e sa a-ae row rav v,gCo a@z elOO- l*"@|W *.'6 ,,Ii"i Best v881 v51 'Soia riea 5o0oe 9066 rm 31es 109 il-ubo-l * 331 ISo& 38S rSId 8'UI i'M o'ssc 1.166 Van 60638 5501 I'lL S63W $016 * CSIt a," LI M togn tem a698 8S38ael 5ISi 3'"i &INS U'85 9*w UWlU3tU5t'
0 . e* reuC-eo aSum o'n w C'1SOlgau'e 0-0Ek8,3*iSl Cub s'ea$100as a O-i68ua aS ma'o s-ea6 suaa1o' 009380anw. ru0'LU ULUUe setoe tb lbUUiimou.k.,. z-ow 111C Sos- awa6 @Soo s-oa splic el cc1-oua alw6sta so- aWs see Sol wuo 040 * a-_0 Cua 9# Cesa& Vwl ruga aesg tome 6s0 *-Ia 5, 81*-n o-a MA Not-0 fo tont clU alwt elM| -0aia come c-@9e $Om a-ua SOM 9492 9goo lbuiblo
* 1055 'l CP ' '9 5U 30 '1 * i S (Ml' WlUp.MV * *Viua * -*0 algo loests t;a"em *-9ts' g-"069 SONI' -ea00. @902*'0 *'1els ale33 -a0'1 Lot0-0 uu,siblas *Om I'z Ol see ton 2a 8 sow9 Wat 011S tt Set go9t 9 0 istAutr miesel s'Ue 101 #I Sto$ Ilia a. alsos Csl e051 s"1a a*i VI1 300o bSwe1,dawl 840"SA * 06 810 61& tga LOW Son-fa 331 spo 6It ell #00 101 6 buoSbqg * 6631o *- tS' I'm 58a tPw Lots So $Is aC a-a go Sl U161 * *om O' co a*& Solo *1u 1602 00 " Sea ale ca set to N" M&-G1S Mona i's not Seu& i'Me u.se OILS C0u too V's ale Va I"s'11 0s15 Ir) Wim
PSIJOdus" Me me Soo due 6W lr Vq'W A" mdw JWS p -1
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I X0 U 0 U C m - 55 -
ANNEX 2
CHINA NORTHERNIRRIGATION PROJECT
Hotaot Cost Summary It" LocoL Foreign TotaL Locat Foreign Total F.EE -(Y mi Llion)- -(USS miLLion]-
CiviL Works: Trunk drain 35.0 35.0 70.0 9.5 9.5 19.9 50 Trunk conal 3.8 5.8 9.6 1.0 1.8 2.6 a0 OrinagWe/rrigetion Ntmork improvments 56.2 56.2 112.3 15.2 15.2 30.4 50 Subtotat 95.0 96.S 191.9 25,7 26.2 51.9 51 On-termODovelopments Let. & SubLet,conals 15.1 0.0 15.1 4.1 0.0 4.1 0 Lat. & Subtot. drains 52.1 0.0 52.1 14.1 0.0 14.1 0 Field ditchedraiens 63.1 0.0 83.1 17.1 0.0 17.1 0 ftrucures 16.4 24.5 40.9 4.4 8.6 11.1 s0 Land tovetling/soothing 14.7 0.0 14.7 4.0 0.0 4.0 0 TubweLL drainage 8.5 8.5 17.0 2.3 2.3 4.8 SO Sub-surfacedrainage 4.1 4.1 9.2 1.1 1.1 2.2 50 subtotat 174.0 37.1 211.1 47.0 10.0 57.1 18 Electrification 3.3 7.7 11.0 0.9 2.1 3.0 70 8uiLdings 11.3 4.8 18.1 3.0 1.3 4.4 30 0 ItNachinery & equip. 0.0 26.3 26.3 0.0 7.1 7.1 100 Agricutturat machinery 11.8 22.8 34.6 3.2 5.2 9.4 68 and mgteriaLs Office/Lob. equip. 0.0 11.5 11.5 0.0 3.1 3.1 100 Training and Tech. Assist. 3.8 3.8 7.6 1.0 1.0 2.1 50 EnginseringAanagment 9.2 1.0 10.2 2.5 0.3 2.8 10
8ese Cost 308.3 212.0 520.3 93.3 57.3 140.8 41 Physicalcontingencies 11.5 8.7 20.2 3.1 2.3 5.4 Pricecontingencies 49.5 74.2 123.7 4.4 6.8 11.0 TOTALPROJECT COST 389.2 294.9 664.2 S0.8 86.2 157.1 42 - 56 -
ANNZX2 Table 2 CHDM NOTHEMIMNIATION CT
Hat a Ebpmditur.Usheuta (Y mittienI
Itm 136 1 131 131 im1 1364 Totdl Clvit nrkgl TrunkDrain 5.0 10.0 a0.0 to.o 15.0 70.0 TrunkCmet 1.0 3.I 3.0 3.l 3.3 0. a I m""k 1mpr,. 10.0 11.0 20.0 30.0 30.0 15.0 1.5 11. on-fre hveltep.et 10.0 15.0 20.0 45.0 Sl.0 45.0 16.1 3t .1 mbtott "36.0 40.0 63.0 67.3 6.0 60.0 36.4 4AI.0
Elestri?lsetien 3.0 4.0 5.0 11.0 Ne1 Idtgo 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 l.1 16.1 NwhimerI, equipment I inOPe1ns 2.0 5.0 10.0 30.0 W.0 15.4 73.4 SUuinmesfio/1nenaeSnt 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 0.7 10.1 Tr?"ebln a Toch. Assit. 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.0 L0. 7.6 sase Cost 33.5 5.1 655 115.1 112.1 77n. 36.1 1.S Poysi100cost. . 23.3 3.2 4.4 4.8 3.0 1.S 0.3 Pricefotingenoies 1.0 .0 15.1 26.3 31.4 27.5 13.4 133.7
TOTALPROET COOT 34.8 u.8 103.7 145.3 147.3 106.4 57.4 65.3 -~ ------isa9i n@|t Be" C" 9S" CIU r*i US 'Beu ml amS smI'ddl mim 01 0em bVs V's O. C'l0 goo 0co IUSd* 61d4 pme.m* 8$1o vVe Moo wesu oo o96000 =00 J@l|llsi0 esme m eg see mre ws* as =w*s mls -l1d 1'sein Isom BOO 960 V-0 *@n la Va0 @@tol e "i ml| so"
CMl toU& U'a VI,is BS VUb gob U'1 nmm MI pisOlUsU i Ile "I 'slWe U i'° i'SS emi fro "|'ai OlU $335 Weg ntCb NotL ov llof see u" n'b -WWNemI pIOWA SUi t' PSS ls e m' ta sin"*s is" rwe 1@A 'smmS ca ban so" VIM1b ' CU VbS run (".1 A) '.f "OS-
_"twou astd P"sv so"
Iud UWmM UMLMSN
£ *rq'j - LS - - 58 -
ANNEX2 Table 4
CHINA NORTHERNTRRIGATIOK PROJECT
NctantCost EstimtesFor TrunkDrain & Conat
ITEM TRUNK DRAIN TRUNK CANAL DE9CRIPTION Unit Qty. U.P. Amount Oty. U.P. Amount (Y'000)tY MLn1 (Y'OOO(Y ntn) Mln. Earth,orkExcavation Cu.o. 14.2 1400 19.9 0 Slops protection xi1oo 214.MS 0 12.9 6.2 0.6 3.4 Cu.o. HonghapokPumping Stn. *um 20.7 0.0 Structurass Bridges no. 33 250 9.3 0.0 FLume/aqueduct no. 10 495 4.9 0.0 End controLs no. 30 120 3.6 0.0 CanaL ReguLator no. 0.0 1 3130 3.1 Repair to Canal Drop sun 0.0 3.0 TOTAL 70,1 9.6 hsT.ADCut Esfti.t.s for D S I Nrimt Lep,wmmans C0-faja Wmk
Orm miLt :3rd Plin Dir. Systr a"1.* 8ds, WxW& S:4th MbILaDr. Sys. A211* S8bhi Dr. Sys:7th IbJzn Dr. Sys. :itaw MbainDr. Sys.. 8h minh*De. Sys. 9th IbmA De. Sys. Total Qt" ISP. Am. Qty U.P. Am. Qty U.P. Am. :Qty U.?. Am. Qty U.P. Am. QtY US.P. Am. QtY U.?. Am. (sty U.?. Am. otp U.?. Am.
taavt I,: :100 . . M&Ln4 Sub-ginz ;mmf. 4520 1.08 4881.6 2520 1.44A 363.8 2761 1.05 2899.1 1380 1.11 1531.8 897 1. 28 1148.2 10NS 1.2 1.257.6 630 1.29 812.7 1950 1.29 2515.5 15706 1.19 18.468 Br. 1, & Sub-branch * '000 1.04 4243.2 1620 1.29 2139.8 2843 1.05 298.2 120 1.11 133.2 1547 1.28 1980.2 257`0 1.00 2570.0 2650 t.29 3418.5 1030 1.29 1320 7 1644 1.14 18.75
Haut:. Su.6-.wmlz km 10.7 375.00 5012.5 IS 345.00 2475.0 19 315.00D 5985.0 0.0 :7.3 146.00D 1065.8 20.4 148.50 3029.4 29.5 146.00 4897.0 18 163 00 29540 119.9 203.49 24. 40 Bramr1 & Sab-b Inh 3.4 1.2000 408.0 0.0 10.5 193.00 20.26.5 7.9 12A.0W 79.6 8.7 107.00 930.9 6 130.0W 80.0 1.1 127.00 139 7 17.6 140.02 5.26
300 0 0.0 6 130.00 780.0 7 14.40 100.8 6 36.00 336.0 2 97.00D 184 0 3 0 4 1 41 73 2.fn PaNPix4 sn l.M. drain Wa. 0.0 20 15.00 I-p.* st.1b,.drainnos. 68135.00 810.0: 4 1400 56.0 19 83.50 1SM.65 1 14.00 42.0 12222.80 273.6: 20 17.00i 340.1 1132.00 352.0 4132.00 1200 79 4542 3.59 Cnot,i/. urctions gma. 241 11.00 2651.0: 176 2.60 457.6 55 16.50 9075. 57 3460 2D5.2: 2 23.00 46.0: 1 29.00 29.0: 22 7.30 140.6: 43 3 80 163, 597 7.74 4 62 Brid#e IbiS.road oma. 12 28.00 456.0: 524-00 120 0 19 50.00 950.0- 4 2500 100.0: 22 45.00 990.0: 8 45.00 360.0: 10 45.00) 450.0: 21 5130O10815 101 44.61 4.51 Tractow Mo. 40 22.00 880.0 18 20.00 360.0 .81 33.00 2673.0 30 18.40 552.0 41 1.5.00 615.0 55 19.50 1072.5 5824.80 967.2 33 20 70 483.1 337 23 1S 7.890 Padeatrim cm.: 110.00 10.0: 3 6.00 18.0: 1I9.00 9.0: 0.0: D.0: 0.0: 0.0: 0.0 5 740 0.04
JRIUZAL :17944.3 :9913.2 : 7995.2 5370.7 :7199.1 9925.4 12032. 0 8973.9 89.35 U
11 110 CATI00 . ...
£acat i: :xlOQO .. 1 1 Kam I S -ginn :wi.m: 231 1.87 412.0: 0.0 481 1.07 514.7: 35 1.10 18.5 0.0 3.4 1.42 4.8 I18 1.54 277.2 0.0 9V 4 1.36 1.27 Bcao*h & Sab-branch: 547 2.00 1094. SW55 1.42 M8.0 : 521.07 168. 5 :214 1.10 235.4 377 1.43 539.1 :363 1.42 515.5 : 866 1.51 1507.7 216 1.44 111.0 .Us3 1.58 6.41
Aq-d..- nos.: 9 57.00) 533.0: 2 9.20) 18.4. 51100 65.0: 0.0: 5 22.80 114.0: 13 15.40 200.2: 2035.00 70.0: 3120 75I.0. 38 2707 1.06 C-ta-: bLUVS-binC.: no. :10 55.00 550.0: 0.0 1254.00 254.0: 3 5.00 15.0: 1 63.80 63.8: 2 3.00) 6.0: 4 11.00 44.0: 1 20.0 20a0 22 43.63 08 6 Brmth C. m3.: 15 27.00 405.0: 33 3.00 99.0:106 1146012296 4 9.20 36.8: 60 4.50 270.0: 58 5.30 307.4: 82 5.50 506.0: 4 5.70 273.6 416 7.52 3.13: 1.at.ISubkIat. C,Ms.: 217 4.00) 64.0: 141 3.30 493.5.11911.3013447: 104 3.50 364.0: 242 2.40 580.8: 171 2.50 427.5: 419 2.21) 811.8155 3.20 496.0 1368 3.51 5. 50: I1r.d Paz: Min xad :me. t 2 24.00 48.0: 2 8.00 16.0 528.00 140.0: 1 25.00 25.0: 9 23.00 207.0: 9133.40 300.6: 534.00) 170.0: 10 24.00 240.0. 43 26.67 1.15: Tractor :me. :15 11.00 143.0: 8 5.00 40.0 11.5 18.70 2150.5- 42 19850 819.0: 17 7.00 119.0: 3 3I.SC -A.5: 0.0: 7 9.40 65.8. 205 16.74 3.45: Pmduaiteinme.: 5 2.40 13.0: 0.0: 28.40 16.8: 0.0: 0.0: 0.0: 0.0: 0.0 7 426 0.03.
7.8IM&L 4066.0 :1447.9 :7343.8 : 533.7 :1893.7 :1856.5 :3296.7 : 3404 .22 95
M1M -3FMR88EVULjC.
L.at.lMAxt. canassi Mo :6164 2.50 4,110.0: 632 2.10 158.0: 1213 2.50 3032.5: 224. 2.50 560.0: 506 2.50 1265.0 562 2.50 1405.0: 781 2.50 1952.5: 470 21 1115.IS0: 032 2.50 15.08 Lat IS..,iAt. drains km M:10710.00 15070.0 : 02 10.00 502.0O 713 10.00 7150.0: 329 10.00 329. 0 :4.69 10.00 469. 0 518 10.00 5160.0 M2 10.00 726.0 448 10.00 44600 : 21.2 10.00 32.12 F..Id dLtchw,ldrl.ags ha4 :43730 0.3 13119.0 :19340 0.3 5608.0 :43330 0.3 12999.0 :13760 0.3 4128.0 :17600 0.3 528. 0:24870 0.3 7461.0 :20870 0.3 8641.0 :14670 0.3 5601.0 .230150 0.30 43.06 Stm Smos. " t, : 4042 2.50 10105.0 : 227 1.80 4116.6 ; 2070 1. 90 3933.0 : 14,47 1.80 2604.6 : 2501 1.70 4251.7 : 3487 1.150 5230.5 : 4601 1. 50 901. 5 ; 248 1.30) 3732.0 : 2292 1.76 40827 L-asc WaLitingmoohn: he :3000 0.10 3000.0 :I00 0.10 1200.0 :30W00 0.10 300.0 :loooo 0.10 iooo.o :12000 0.10 1200. 0:20000 0.10 2000.0 :20000 0.10 2000. .13000 0.10 3100.0 :147000 0.10 147U Wa ..LI&t ra&in.aalls. ma. :220 9.90 2378.0:t 0.0:118 7.10 8910.0: 0.0: 0.0: 302 1.70 23254: 391 7.80 3049.8. 100 S. 70 570.0: 2201 7 74 17~05 0 ~A,sz r pie7kdraim: ba :37 23.60 880.6: 280 7.8D2212.0: 140 14.20 2272.0: 0.0: 176 9.00 1384.0: 130 3.60D 494.0: 37 7.80 2M.4 50 S.460 430 0. 80 9.3 0 16
0*11241 : 4844.6 :19936.6 :41276.5 : 1582.6 IW182707:24095.9 :30113.4 IJSAN. 0 : 21 03 IJa
704728S 31297.7 . 64615.5 :147 27363.5 :3671 45442.0 . 27k):333 _Ats Istimte nets fw Hadd1mq,, d42 m ad NtAdas RAIMnA ttL MZUY WOOLgaQMP 34Mlat LfmLedraZ M M 3idi b Is a Ut2Fi A - t L.U ps i U. _et A 25 CwAtr., 0 &N mitn.y.p & equip. () * er1.) 2 0 430.00 mo-o~~~~~~~~~~~2 Xulu tr 1.2-1.5 m3lr ys . a 8 st50.00 6300.0 :. aio b ~ ae, 0.61- no. 5 30 t 370.00 11100.0 hs11lez 120D Na ' ao. : 4 . 0.00 122.0 - s 2 wDU Llldo 1M5Iw : 3D.'a 370.00 230.0 : 1.Sl = D' 2 2 f5.00 190.0 0miinprp~iqlr ~Szu ID. :02 1 2 p25.00 MO. ftEbLcpat t m. : 1 : o 2 teel 1I0. 2 :.5 la 3.0 Itmi br ' V. 1 2 10.0 10.0 £iJdat e I. 522.5 12.5
Vu-siM plinr. UMC~U~Dno. * 1 : 1.0 10.0 9tra1~s tma0 2 2210 53.0 304.02- .20 plamirninhizu~~~~~~~~~~ IrD. I a 2.0 2D02 h*tIOdUZ3ZUUn o:. 21 6 .0 1810.0 Iress. Fd tl_,it~ ID. . 21 .0.0 300 SnAP 5 2.0: 100 Sub-tntal : 22 70. 925.0 3040 6523.40
$Sbed1,1.5-2.r 60 t, 282 .o 1 107.00 107.0 trak, 10,000-1iters am. 2 M:800 162.0 9q,elxlsexyioetmz~k ID. 2 * 30.00 260.0 no. : 1 : 45 00 4:95. 5 .m). 13 50 650.0 300 Fllm pr,1 IDo. 20 10 200.0 TwThcslb p1,1.5-2.0 tams ni. 10 2 00 260. Fiald go )m. 8 35 00 220.0 Va, 1A :. 2 50 .0 100.0 Sub-total 2314.0 25.0 2.51
Project O:f 2:s 0: 1yIz81ku D. xt 7 12.00 84.0 g Coauza ano: 26 3 0.00 180.0 4.0 0. TeaIml~~~~~~~*er for am~~n 1 15.0 I 50 Sli ret am : 2 2.0 1.0 Film 10.01 am 2 2.0 4.0 FzmJIshJQaJmse typwritD ::5 1 4.5 LSadd aot-. =-tota p Xt . 1 . 4960 400.0 264.0 35.5 0.30 SO aL rm a'ie ::9 ;6 qx . Sme ' set *be 1mostur3 37.0 111 0 SoIl.p;=Usai mdf mersat sMt 1 56.0 56.0 L S salintt 2 3.7 7:4 Partile aim distrib ut, rat.0s Mt :P 2. M11L-IDUZ1S iZ25tZ2w sOt 1 31.0 3110 Soil. water sicmwter set 1 15.0 15.0 mae ~~~~~. ~~~~~~~sat1 .10.0 10.0 soilsnfr sat 20 0.1 2.0 Fa MP, Mmst 5 0.0 0.2 Ioisture h1UIdz cqapclty qapezmae st 2 26.0 52.0 A510Ywater quaaity"d-"1 I -tan , noset 3 33.5 10.5 Automatic Level ID) 2 5.0 10.0 C vlectamc sal (0.01-ian Medkw rID 2 30.0 60.0 Sub-total ~~~~~~~~0.0 0.0 481.9 0.49 nrozatet * .001626. 26. .0 . 01 12caumlVW =ts stam 1zmlaaus moile and pxotablo sets ad acceseories. set 14900 4900.0 0.0 0.0 4.90 1
Pints control systmmWtaPm.O=te qaeCMtiaa: 5-tam (89 sets). 10-tam (116 sets) >10-tam (13 sets) Inel'ArMk wirIxw, cmtzoks ad ccessories. SMm 3160 3160.0 0.0 0.0 3.16 Pinot. -wn systm for soil sai0Y water mxitoc?ng at 13 xtetli, zmsja.M all mqaorL% equiana and so1 rV a mm 10.0 163 163.0 0.0 0.18
Theodolit. no. 2 8 18.0 144.0 -~~~~ ~ - ~ - ZW awn
bin: Eutmtd Owat s ltdzy, : an :tdas t U. s U. PNIa 1 U. Pric A.Pd: m2'14 b IC 110.o 8 * 15.0 120.0 : ll 1bt : 36: 5.0 110.0 : 68 _iz IIM. m : 36 2 6.0 216.0 _'htarinar1z~ d1n6S~ stamls saM. 216 2.2 475.2 Other . 1nthmts OW: 1 : 20.0 20.0 : ! 1otl : :0.0 1155.2 0 1.16 *iazl&wsJt4 , t2tI ats_tU nt : S: 60.0 300.0 JI.s1tutm u.1n1m y m td gm 1 . : S.0 500.0 lr.p At piutactiux gq'ipi. g. I : 2.10.0 120.0 am 2 2l t 140.0 140.0 OR L : 410.0 410.0 11a : 20:0 20.0 2 9b-total 2 2 0.0 0.0 1490.0 1.49 E.ctrkal eft: : 2 TSo no. : 9 : 50.00 450.0 Sd.aslax cdtar ts 800 : 3.80 3040.0 ISutdss 2. 2 23 8.00 184.0 Ialtoms n.o 23100 : 0.01 231.0 canoc poles no. 6200 0.2 1240.0 : AUAWL g i Pm : I : 600.00 600.0 tw*tota. 3490.0 0.0 2Z55.0 5.75 aMIMD2't : : : : : Dintam wpi c/v astor. Mt 243 2.60 631.8 subsible. a. c/v mors set : 212: 0.65 1383.2 Tronam s no. : 250 2 2.50 625.0 L.T. 4I t b . 1000 2.10 2100.0 Sb-total 740.0 0.0 0.0 . 4.74 ; 0.23 2066.1 ;' = M*/LLftU-4 Mt 8983 ' CtUM (Cast ix, steel am) Mt 8983 * 0.86 7725.4 . * Sb-totaL 9791.5 0.0 0.0 : 9.79 : tM J:s:: . Caut2n/ibm. /b Ce . tcn 105000 0.19 19950.0 Steel pnO: ts 20 2 1.03 22866.0 I 6 pole m3 4200 : 0.28 U176.0 S2'' ir3 13400: 0.45 6030.0 tAotal* 50022.0 0.0 0.0 50.02 4d l: : : :: FtiLimsr ta : 20000 0.74 14800.0 nc re vaterial for plastic b_ets ta n 2750 : 2.70 7425.0 Sub-total 0.0 0 0.0 2 22.23 TotS Caas.5 t . * 2707.2 4572.4 130.09 W2'__: : 33192.6 731.7 125.8 : 35.16
/a: pazlu dqaips blused a tn us bid p;tats. - lb: ant of iddi axe kmlidW in thm xl.t rates foc tim respctivw cLva woi itwa. V Ita: Tm itm a1d t)lz qmt4tSas * shAb w awcly estimts awd ill be finalzed prior to pro_um. X
Ha O4 0 - 62 -
Annex 2 Tabl 7
MOTM8 IXATIOI PROJECT
YTian: Cost S umary
------__------__------It _ Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total P.R. ------(Y Tmillon)------(US million)---- (t) -__------Civil Works: GubaL 7.9 7.9 15.8 2.1 2.1 4.3 50 TonaxLn 9.8 9.8 19.6 2.6 2.6 5.3 50 Langpiziliang 5.5 5.5 10.9 1.5 1.5 2.9 50 JLnyJntan 5.1 5.1 10.1 1.4 1.4 2.7 50
Subtotal 28.2 28.2 56.4 7.6 7.6 15.2 50
On-farm Der0lopmnt: Ouhal 26.9 17.9 44.8 7.3 4.8 12.1 40 Tongxin 14.3 9.5 23.8 3.9 2.6 6.4 40 LangpLiLlang 8.4 5.6 14.0 2.3 1.5 3.8 40 Jinyintan 12.1 8.1 20.2 3.3 2.2 5.5 40
subtotal 61.7 41.1 102 8 16.7 11.1 27.8 40
Electrification 2.4 5.6 8.0 0.6 1.5 2.2 70
Rasettlemont /a 29.5 29.5 59.0 8.0 8.0 15.9 50
Machinery L equLpmcnt 0.0 15.0 15.0 0.0 4.1 4.1 100
Training and Tech. Assist. 1.8 1.8 3.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 50
agBineorlnglManagement 6.6 0.7 7.3 1.8 0.2 2.0 10
YinbeL Studies 7.0 3.0 10 1.9 0.8 2.7 30
Base Cost 137.1 124.9 262.0 37.1 33.8 70.8 48
Physioal contingencies 5.9 5.4 11.3 1.6 1.5 3.1
Price contlngencLs 18.1 27.1 45.2 1.2 1.8 3.0
TOTAL PROJECT COST 161.1 157.4 318.6 39.9 37.0 76.8 48
/as Includes relocation cost, housing and agricultural materialsand equipmnt, infrstructures and social facilLties.Detailed estLiates Ln Annex 2 Table 11. - 63 -
Annex 2 Table 8
CHINA
NORTHERN IRRIGATION PROJECT
Yinnan: Expenditure Schedule (Y mLIlLon) __------__ ------ltem 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Total __------__ ------
Civil vorks Guhai 2.6 3.4 4.0 3.0 2.8 15.8 Tongxin 3.0 5.0 5.8 5.8 19.6 LangpizilLang 1.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 0.9 10.9 Jinyinten 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 1.6 10.1
Subtotal 5.6 11.0 14.5 14.3 11.1 56.4
On-farm Development 15.5 18.7 25.3 23.3 20.0 102.8
Electification 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 8.0
Resettlement 3.3 16.8 17.3 16.5 5.2 59.1
Machinery & equipment 2.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 15.0
Engineering/Managament 0.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.5 7.1
Training & Tech. Assist. 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.5
Yinbei studies 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 10.0
Bease Cost 29.5 59.5 70.1 64.1 38.8 261.9
Physical contingenc es 1.3 2.4 3.0 2.8 1.9 11.3 I'rice contingencies U.9 6.2 12.4 14.7 11.0 45.2
TOTALPROJECT uOoT 31.6 68.1 85.5 81.6 51.6 318.4 ______------_-- - 64 -
Annex 2 Table 9
CHINA
NORTHER IIRGATION PROJECT
Yinnans Expected Price Increases
Item 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Total
Sase Cost (Y m1n.) 29.5 59.5 70.1 64.1 38.8 261.9 Physical ccntinsency 1.3 2.4 3.0 2.8 1.9 11.3 Annual escalation rate 6.5X 6.31 6.5X 4.52 4.52 Price cont. multiplier 0.03 0.1 0.17 0.22 0.27 Expeted price lncreases 0.9 6.2 12.4 14.7 11.0 45.2 Total project cost (Y mln.) 31.6 68.1 85.5 81.6 51.6 318.4
Base Cost (USS m) 8.0 16.1 18.9 17.3 10.5 ;#u.8 Physical contLngency 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 3.1 Annual escalation rate 1.02 1.02 1.02 3.52 3.5X Price cont. multiplLer 0.005 0.015 0.025 0.061 0.098 Expected price increases 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.1 3.0 Total project cost (USS mln.) 8.3 17.0 20.2 19.2 12.1 76.8 YThu: CGeatEstimaa fcw Civil and O-fam W=ks
: Otal Ztaa UnIit a Qisi Tuwln a LmLLliw : 0.P. hAm. aQay. U.P. Am. aQty. U.P. hAm. :Qty. U.P. hAm. :Qty. i.P. hAm. :Qtr. -(Y'0 0)-: (Y'000) aYnil): bzutlmik awavat1*c :a -(T000)-: -(Y'000)-t -(YIOO0)-: 0.0 : 25.8 6.81 8.5 )bla col a d0O 700 8.7 6090.0: 91.3 6.5 593.5:t 459.5 4 283.0 260 6 1560.0 189.3 5.21. 9.9 su3c mini : AL.. 30.6 3.48 106.5 : 83.7 6.23 5007.1 am80 4 3212.0 0.0: 365 3 109.0: 365.0 3.00 1.1 : mbnain Uml 0.0: 0.0: 3 2550.0: 850.0 3.00 2.6 : 3rochdmn a 0.0: 0.0: 0.0: 850 .z1O. 66.6 47 3130.2 a114.5 104.30 11.9 owet. lbinh a a.s. a18.66 174 3246.8 15.5 190 2945.0 1-3.7 191 2616.7 a a 9.0 153. 72 l13.8 Ptnpizasatatimas nom. a 4 650 2600.0 : 3 2850 8550.0 : 2 1320 2640.0 :0.0
Structs: 55.83 4.3: a 16 167 2672.0: 14 62.5 875.0: 0 0 0.0: 47 16 752.0: 77.0 nu~a,aa~ 49 16 784.0: 54.0 15.37 0.8: PA" bcidp 9 2 11 22.0: 0 0 0.0: 3 8 24.0: 24 7 168.0: 133.0 7.32 1.0: Tractor bridbe : ;a U 26.4 290.4: 23 7.7 177.1: 75 4.5 337.5: 10 10 100.0 49.0 24.70 1.2: OALwert no~. a 26 27.7 72D.2: 1.3 30 390.0: 0 0 0.0: 1 45 45.0: Cat"a 0 0 0.0: 10 14.5 145.0: 38 6 228.0: 0 0 0.0: OffrAka: 11 6.5 71.5: 6 91 546.0: 9 4.5 40.5: 12.6 50.4: DLcp ~ ~~~~00 0.0: 42 9 378.0: 5 4.5 22.5: 4 9 15.6 140.4: Eomtr2. : 0 0 0.0: 0 0 0.0: 0 0 0.0: 10139.2: 55.1: Sabtotal: a ~~~~~1.5819.4: 19606.6: 10959.2:
Qn-iam Dav1alq t: a : 3835 2.6 9971.0 SM78.0 2.56 22.5: ewls a aOQO s 187 2.6 4864.6 : 383 2.4 919.2 . 2700 2.5 6750.0 Lat.J1ab1.at. 0.0 M 0.0: lat. IS61st.drairgs : aa.M. a 0.0 : 0.0:I 0.0: 0 0 0.0: : 10.5 150 1575.0 :195.3 162.63 31.8 C1A llnzsa 131.3 160 21008.0 : 42 172 7224.0 : 21.5 170 2955.0 a 0.5 1445.0 : 3030 0.85 2575.5 :1785.0 0.89 16.0 stzaiwe : . 9240 0.5 462.0 : 2725 2.7 7357.5 289 270 2 540.0 a128.0 3.U1 4.0 Aces" zmul km a 700 2.8 1960.0 : 173 4.95 856.4 % 144 4.5 648.0 : 0.85 3230.0 : 550 0.3 465.0 a3126.0 0.75 23.5 FWeA 1avs1ll heIa 17600 0.7 1 22.0 : 8310 0.9 7479.0 a 3800 187 27.2 5066.4 :5.1 FLdxppe4 beha 20212.9 : 02.8 Uatntala a ~~~~~~44772.6a 33.1 :14M.0
: U*octrlLlmat4ma 5.0 30.0 0.4 : 110 Mr ins a 0 sa 0.0: 5 80 400.0: 0.0: . 4. 40.00 1.3: SbIFLiann baha is 40 720.0: 17 40 680.0 : 9 40 360.0: 41.0 27.00 1.1 : :hm a ; 21 25 525.0: 9 28 252.0: 11 30 330.0: 6blW u 6.0 7M.17 4.7 ihutatlin m 2 300 600.0: 3 133 399.0: 1 100 100.0: .0: *ita*al. a a284.0: 5331.0: 79.0: 16.9: a a 4~~~~~~2437.0a4877.7 :2577.2: 30352.1 a -a :~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I I -- a - a -a cHINA
NORTHERNIRRIGATION PROJECT
innan: Cost Estimatesfor Rasetlement
Item Unit Rate Quantity Amount EstimatedF. E. (Yuen) (Y gln.) (1) (YM) (USSM) ------__------__------Relocation: (Yuan) Transport Person 50 Houi ng Person 200
Subtotal Person 250 54150 13.5 20 2.7 0.7
Farm Inputs a Machinery: ProductionInputs Person 100 54150 5.4 20 1.1 0.3 Machinery and equip. family 2000 11000 22.0 90 19.8 5.4
Electricity& Water Supply: Water Supply Person 50 54150 2.7 20 0.5 0.1 I Rural electrificationla km 22330 150 3.3 50 1.7 0.5 0% 0% Social Services& Facilities: I Administrativebuildings; Township no. 40000 3 0.1 Village centers no. 12000 26 0.3 Health centers/clinecs: Township no. 180000 3 0.5 Village centers no. 15000 26 0.4 Schools: Secondary no. 400000 3 1.2 Primary no. 100000 30 3.0 Culturalcenters no. 200000 3 0.6 Agri-tech. extension centers no. 80000 3 0.2 Animal husbandrystation no. 25000 3 0.1 Shops/rqral enterprises: Township no. 800000 3 2.4 Village centers no. 120000 26 3.1
Subtotal 12.0 30 3.6 1.0
Total Base Cost 59.0 50 29.4 7.9
la: including189 sets of transformers. 1"4 0
tp 0001? lsBin 01se000 _00 o .g601? op 90 i '0 O a'c , . S.P ,00 .sa
0-* 000 00I1 80 1 9 0000 0smTl
i , O'f OZIW £ , aIzi 1 mt c09 o°ezo09ot . .S . ("* . °°z
01K 0
p - qw 91 cOsN Wat c
5'~ ~ ~~31~~W"e! U s 1 jUo 00100 *o 9~~~~~~ 111 o 1 901 000 5 *1h1O SZ11p~ * 01K~~~O' 09T wzl ca ,~~~~~~~~~~~~~O93 aUIi _wasedZdtain5daain s : OlS 90 6 :a u t 9? tz *ls '0 so olot 0 01K0? :~C91 3 5'1 m S vs s I 33~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 5' ~ 94rq~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ogoWl a,O's1K ~~~~~~~~~~O's t aU' '0 pn~~~~~~~~~39-~r~IT 10' T 0010 WI C'S" 9,669 I3001 j JU 00111 :1ttm 001o au 03o 090 0- -S1't U'8I ' SC U'{ ' ~~~~0-0 m5' 3 3~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~in-W. 3 3 ew ~~~~~~~~~ot3 u Iiu ulIe aals!co IL? 000 3 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~13~~-00 00 ~~~~~~~~~'1 - 3 110 0950391 3 120WI" 1'P1 ONTS~~li St 61 30 00:O' & ~ 000? OW9 ~ (I0PS3m)pp 0 St oll~~~~~~~~~~~
1 ' US1 *Z 9t0 031? 0311 3~~~~~~~~01 0 ' 10I5~0~ MOT" 010 0:001 19 5'ai'p Sua v'i.p a OK06 0109 0009c 00r 9 : 5'u-Tp StI11 'MA 9 :45'~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~a 0 U 91 PIqla 31iin3 3 09111 0*03
3 3~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~------;--- 3EOL 5'lJd '~U~1~d 0 ~ WId 0 ,~DIE~ 11d
aDJ-. MLUWt - t au ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ STa *,on 0S'Lm,p100 0J00 aq :wjpuii mwi wu9azwx~~~~~~~CU=M= WloinO' a. ------
Yiam: FstSmtud Cost for Pbddznq. Iqdt ad Ibtsl*1 ______t _t -__------_____c :A ------_d___-- Total Itaii Unit t t bit' . U __ _ _ to ______TOW ______ad : 'Uprion"U. WL""". A.'4 . FCL------llow.tPrice Allure Tota omat le
AlIaultt :=w= tov rute s lo attadgt set 3500 4.0 22800.0 Ape-tab te.aUtUiaelt 69*iLtp amm 50.0 30.0 vemigtt O*dP= 20.0 20.0 Sub-tta 2200.0 70.0 22.87 0.08 22.07 ?z_aiam m. 23 67.5 1552.5 Th.a"1 GAitM u4 430 4.0 1720.0 5.b-t@ttl tm~~~p1atea O* twiw butt 1- no-Lto.12 272 0.070.38 1301 16 *' 5f.e °8 e3 AauIzu '0 t 5 15.0 7so.o 0.75 Sub-total 3M.5 0.0 0.0 3.27 080 =0*oodptl se sm 5n O~~~~~~~~~~~~~1..00.1 = *fte v Ibt elw p _t52° 3.1 0.532
b-total 0 0 0 0.e 118 1.1i tutm n: : lb ejttnt b 110 .e 0.1 leao.0 1U.52 Stmi n1n ; S. = o", 1.5'108:: 6.0.8 3 MOO .0.5 4000.0 4.08 A-total 443.o 0.0 8.0 4.65 28.52 25.17 3WtIkIm eat I 10008 s 0.7 7408.8 PC _ 1*2f_tte _Pui1 iin tU: 2008 2.7 5400.8
ab-tatai i3o0.g 0.0 0.0 12.00 0.0o 12.0e mm IM !300. 63.0 12.9 52.2 24.8772 ------ex~~~~~~~M ,s8 '?75m 522g2 ------__------.------...... ------_------_ a n
Ipb *d_M bt,^Wl. t_ s btid I . t Ic, part of th eatC = eS foe .teitw t fte: So > Ite, ad K_ig _ ntits.w a, y uicative ad witl be fimliwd at tim of p_m.Oit
FoX
O0 CHINA
NORTHERN IRRZATIZO PROJECT
Disbursement Schedule
DLsbutre mnt Profile /a IJRDAID Disburaement DLabursa nt Disbursment Fiscal Year ------Cul1ative end S mster S8mestral Cumlative Cu,ulative Semestral Cumulative Cumulative Semestral Cu aultiveCu olative Year (2) ----(US$ million)---- (2) ----(US$ m*illon)---- (2) ----(US$ milLon)---- (2) Semester
<------ETAO------>< ------YINNAN------> <------TOTAL PROJECT ------> Year 1 1989 lst 0 lst 0.6 0.6 1 1.0 1.0 3 1.6 1.6 2 2nd 12 2nd 2.0 2.6 4 1.6 2.6 7 3.6 5.2 5 Year 2 1990 Ist 25 lst 4.8 7.A 11 3.9 6.5 18 8.7 13.9 13 2nd 38 2nd 5.6 13.0 20 4.5 11.0 30 10.1 24.0 23 Year 3 1991 50 Ist 6.3 19.3 29 5.8 16.8 45 12.1 36.1 35 1st 2nd 63 2nd 8.4 27.7 42 5.8 22.6 61 14.2 50.3 49 Year 1992 4 1st 73 '0 lst 7.5 35.2 53 4.6 27.2 74 12.2 62.4 61 80 2nd 8.6 43.8 66 5.1 32.3 87 13.7 76.1 74 2nd Year S 1993 lst 87 lst 7.0 50.8 77 2.4 34.7 94 9.4 85.5 83 92 2nd 7.6 58.4 88 2.3 37.0 100 9.9 95.4 93 2nd Year 6 1994 1st 95 Ist 3.4 61.8 94 3.4 98.8 96 2nd 98 2nd 3.0 64.8 98 3.0 101.8 99 Year 7 1995 lst 100 lit 1.2 66.0 100 1.2 103.0 100
__------__------_------_------__------__------Co letion date: _ December31, 1994 December 31, 1992 December 31, 1994 ClosLng date- December 31, 1995
1-: Disburseamnt profile for 11 agricultural projects in China analyzed by CODMD * MEOW MrATICE PFMIJ
------~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~------______MtacBoqamt: Tesnz ad Teulal AsfstE i~sclptl sTotal asIin of m-kt Dascr4ytL=l TOW mon- ew~cot by calanda Year Prqposd content aid loestimi mmiths (US000) i9S 19S9 1990 1991 199
O,ersaa, Tru1n1z A. Study tours 1. Rgonul Ai ric. Bra staffIs 14 91 5 5 iDeslem of a-fam vmuks, mai salwy:;= ine, ard 2. Rag1.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1~~~~~ ~Lrriatimi and draingt nt- lpna A 2. ReLarL Wtr Remm Design lust. staff /b 14 91 7 7 W e struturs, drainad si-e protection-U.S., MeLOn. 3. Ba Lasm W1Mstaff 9 59 5 4 Irriation an drs a s I- pt.ectL 4. BeiaL aidaamit--sp. .Imest tackimcal mid g t staff 13 85 7 6 tc,!r (utinal p)oll scnc p,
staff 34 221 8 8 8 6 4 Pctr be c mtorng 1. trvlunts- Subtotal 84 546 32 30 12 6 4
B. Advned (4-12 n) training for WR. staff 35 140 20 15 CaostrutLcn argm-rbig, Irrigation ww .
CustIaU SeiYeS A. Water .AsolL iuhro,nt 4 52 2 2 U.S., CKuda, W. GCy, P .dStA,TuCkGy. B. 1IC bid doawnt prtw*tLcn 10 130 6 4 Subtosl 14 182 8 6 Subtotla oversaw Trainin & CAiltlu Sevie 133 868 60 51 12 6 4 local Trdn A. Ibh d'qlsunlrmrs for ruseil, 1iS1U 35a cuty.M 90 15 30 30 30 TrsiuIr in pmj. i , fin ad tz±ia J. 1s-tm training for In staff 4Q 650 am 8am 800 800 800 pn_ art the lld lol rolLge of Agr tum AuL-l Busbuida, LLriw Water C. Short-tem training for hld of water Uers,' am 500 65 100 100 100 100 100 Sowa1l ows 1 at tlHai lric. & M College, D. Short-tem training for Neis aoIL md 3. LAm ler reszuces %zuaa.dc staff 27 9 9 9 9 14uth-lmcamzse In salinity cantol soil I~~w,ad edqoit WMat the i t ad e E. Umnt-taum training for staff of 1.005 tPSnin tamia. 500 82 100 100 100 100 10 Trainlr In slinity omtrL mid I ragtian 9 driain F. TednusaL tlrd for f*=wn & t.chnins--Lh o Agrlc. &M CLlleg hI.din 42O0 400 840 800 400 8400 8400 for a- fas In cuttLvatlcn . fodmalatiomi. meLe Ibumculatlmt- C. 3Srt-tam trainn for sgrlcule- at ta.mip e2tUUIstatl.. h_lul bwdry cares 33 22 9 6 6 6 6 1-5 day training inwses at the couty agro-tedualcal SubtotaL 471.2 1243 9348 9445 9445 9306 9406 - : Total 47256 2111 9408 9496 9457 9312 9410 fll ______I-tI S 12 TM pOCN_ ft tiA UM's CEMtnMtl, plamim ad maaltune dqm_rnts, to at 1aw", ad six fro tlw fI bouz h ma. lb TM cr thr_e fra the follwin _artts: inotztmtlIa, slle, irrlptgicn, draiza., ad erosLan prevtlo.n yTIzMmi_M-:__Yminiznad_Tedutcakl_Msi.stme ______TotalITOW "alahe ft' I cantad locati'mi tlu- ( 000) --- -yWW ____ is"_ 1990 1991 1992
1.'~IsenLOI? war 14 92 7 7 DIinaof arid zesi... lift pimpi tSW, c@ocdimtad 2. Smla asrlcultaj 2. : =stricatuni ~~~~~~plmmlwfor wtr zecrsadalriLdtu-U.S., Mloo. 10 84 3 5 Dm1:t of xaalL-seals, famiy fand-Om,ay. Pblid
3. U tsdugclm 10 84 5 5 Draldag tedIdlqm- Pakistan.T-&w. '. SoU tsdmlans,W0 ==WV= 14 92 7 7 Project .a wd soil salinity owtrllqsruvt 5. mane 8 52 4 A Irzjatl q tmn systm mg-. telmterja eqant. 3. a nt-tena (4-6 s tmlhIu cws 60 210 12 12 12 22 12 No. a tedmiqLis--U.S., 1. Gen , ComWa Sbtotal 116 614 28 40 24 12 12 Camilti Sevicesla A. Ovrsa ansdt: its aurs, q _ueia 2 25 2 Sail _vovmnit, project __it, ttstdi t I 11. I o dt 80 25 20 20 20 20 /aedvisory servLca vv%ided by _ of other iJ-a1m zwk projects inUzrners Iram vi 1 d a*sd N1sl. SeMotol 82 50 22 20 20 20 0 dca Tra1h A. Cast, O staff ad temhpl vUL*l_ 'wtar ns 120 81 0 803003e 300 o naLsdol (NItke %la r r oM="s in qevatian ad rnix of Wmps, miztamu of 1. M Staff ad CtrLure, mIur maazraAnt et. tadmicl.nu 1200 108 0 200 4w0 400 200 pot-saomlazy Lw-tm tra1nizg in tar e i uarz A ssrlmldUnal tediuolo C. r tra1n.a 2500 200 500 500 500 500 500 T*-k mwea in a*ltivatien p tactis irrlastlc teduiqs. d busise ad escounti--to assist In shit frca drylad to Lrrigated D. 7k r tedmJ.ciul{ui ers 20 76 50 50 50 50 El-teechical trainin. caxurs within ad ou*side Nitsal SWtotal 5100 465 51 1050 1250 1250 1000
Total 8 529 1129 550 1110 12 282 1012
Iabmlids ommulting services for the Ylnbei. stul (A.e 2, Table 16). 1^-- g~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~mI__ __ - 72 - ANNEX2 Table 16
CHINA NOKTHI IrAZSATIONPHOJET
Ylnnans Cost Eatlutss and Expenditure ScheduLe foa Y1nbul Studies
- Cost Estimtes -- I Expendi tunre Itm_ LocaL FOreign TotaL S F.E. S tm 1ow 1360 1n 13 ---- Y miLionl i- MI (Y eLm.) hUinmfl_g _urveyi 4 _min aonsto 538.7 km S 7 bromIh conato 270.5 km I 6 min dren 5234 km 6 branch drains m1.5 km , Itratures £ Swb-totaL 0.7 0.0 0.7 0 a 0.2 0.4 0.1i HydroegotLaglcL Surveys & Data ColectIon 1.2 0.0 1.2 0 * 0.2 0.4 0.6' SoiL r,veys 0.4 0.0 0.4 0 3 0.2 0.2 3 P1 let Arom Cons tructlani b_ua_n 305 he I Waxuis 257 he S Lihe ISO he a a Sub-total 3.3 0.0 3.3 0 1.3 2.0 S Equlpmmntlnetreantsa A Not. 0.4 1.0 1.4 71 a 0.4 0.3 0.5 3 Conaultenoy Services a a 1S0 _mn-months) 1.0 2..0 0 07 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 Total Bae Cost 7.0 8.0 10.0 30 s 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 5 = _ - a - 3 73 - Annex 2 CHINA Tabl* 17
UOTUM IUXGAT!OU FROJCT
Noteos Cost Estimates for Agricultureal Coepoment
______-_-_------______-- It" Unit Rate Quantity Amount atLaeted W. 5. (Yuan) (Y000) (2) (YOOO) (US$'OO0) ------__------__------_--__------______- SulIdias ------_-- as Leagu Cah Crop 3.e amch Sta. *2 200 1500 300 Sod atore mnd dryin yards a2 233 3000 699 Townshlp Agro-tech Eat. Centers E2 200 8100 1620 Crop protection offLeLa .2 200 2500 500 She" and p Subtotal 4829 30 1449 392 Machinery& Equipment lb ______Seed station *qulp_mnt set su1 1 300 Agrcultural iuplmnts aot sum 1 500 Crop protection equipocnt aet sum 1 120 Caeh Crop RlStatlon equipment set sum 1 140 Agro-tech. ZEt. Center equlp. set sum 1 410 Veterinary eqUlp. for dairy cows act sum 1 so Subtotal 1550 70 1065 293 Production Xaterials DAP fcrtiliurr ton 745 20000 14900 100 14900 4027 PVC rv materials for plestic mulch ton 2650 2750 7288 100 7286 1970 Dairy cova tc head 3000 400 1200 0 0 0 Saplings for fruitltUiber trees d . no. 258000 26 6708 0 0 0 Seds for crops 4400 0 0 0 Subtotal 34496 22168 5997 Tr ainng & Technical hest. ______Iarer training a-days 1250000 1 1250 0 0 0 Staff training a-days 1000 80 sO 0 0 0 Study toursS Local m-tripa 40 3000 120 0 0 0 Overseas a-trips 15 10000 t50 100 150 41 Subtotal 1300 150 41 TOTALSASS COST 42475 24871 6722 /at Includes silos for silage. lbs Llsts of equipmet are Ln the project file. lc: Imported species but brad locally. Annex 2 - 74 - Table 18 CIINA WOS?3 IGAT_ iU P1S.lkWCt Skta.: Key Monitoring Indlcators (a) Planned (b): Actual .------.... ___---______.______------...... ------...... ---...---_. .______-.------_- ..------___---_---__-__-_------...... ------...... -..---...-.______Indieator UnLt ------Year------19J 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 (a) r. (a) (b) (a) (b) Land Dvelopment I Iprvea_mnt (a) (b) (a) (b) (a) (b) (a) (b) ow ltrrigation areA devoloped la ha Zaisitog irrigation area Lproaved ha On-fgrm Facities: lb Newly provided ha Mutating Lmprowed he LOad Levelling ha Agricultural Inputs Pertillser used ton Plastic mALchused ton Ag. machineryloquipoent no. Seeds/Seedlings used kglno. Agricultural Productlon heat : Area cultivated ha Average yield ton/ha total Production ton Corn, Area cultivated ha Average yield tonlha Total Production ton (To repeat for other crops) Training armeros a-month Project Staff: Local trainig rn-month Overseas training a-month Study tours n-month Consultants services a-month Soclo-economlc /c Income from sales of produce Yuan Income from off-farm Yuan Total gross Lacom Yuan Total household expendLtures Yuan Per capita Income Yuan /at Includes reclamation of sallne waste land. lb: Covers construction of lateral and sublater-l canals azd structures by contribution labor. lc: Based on scnplLng of pro-dtternaned areos selected for monltoring. -75 - Annex 2 Table 19 CEINA ""~TOM IUZGATIOU PJROCT tanant Key HoetatiLng Indicators Id (a): Planned (b): Actual _._____.__-__-__------_----_--_-- -- _------.------_------______------Year------g---__-_ Indictetr Uitt ------it" Ing 1990 1991 1992 ------______.__----____-__------(a) (b) (a) (b) Lend Dsel.p_t Impreovent (a) (b) (t) (b) (a) (b) VW ir srtcion area developed la ha KnisitnS irrigation area Improved ha On-farm facilities: lb Newly provided ha EIsting improevd ha Land Levelling ha R settle.ont go. of families relocated no. No. of persons relocated no. Housing completed no. Schools completed. Primary no. Secondary no. Health conterslcltnics no. Rural roads km Electricity provided bouseholds Water supply provided households Rural shops/enterprises no. Agricultural Inputs FertilLs1r used ton PLastic *ulch used ton AS. machinerylequipment no. Seeds Seed1Lngs used kglno. Agricultural Production Wheat: Area cultivated ha Average yield toniha Total Production ton Corn: Area cultivated ha Average yleld toniha Total Production ton (To ropeat for other crops) Training Farers a-month Project Staff: Local training -month Overseas training a-rnth Study tours a-month Consu.tsnts services a-month Socio-econoaic lc Income from sales of produce Yuan Income from off-facm Yuan Total gross inceme Yuan Total household expenditures Yuan Per capita itowa Yuan la: Includes reclamation of waterlogged area labor. lb: Covets construction of lateral end sublateral canals and structures by contribution Ic: Based on Lampling of pre-deterinned arge selected for montoring. 1d: To be used separately for GuhaL, Tongxln, LwapLSilLang ed Jlnyltt-n areas. - 76 - mA Tabte I anw1 Fran te Prtas for Tra Ziuts od -m la (1967 Y'M) ______--- -_ ------_ _ VOItaINCR' Grin.Y *Iet Corn OL suar Lmb Whoi Unea U A? Lb /c Id Ic If L Ih Li Net Trade Status N X X m X H 14 1987 Prices Iztp Price () 133 146 1726 115 169 Oc Freiht (S) 46 34 473 34 34 CWFor FM Qt _wd () 179 SO 306 180 1250 3151 149 203 CIF or FM Qizbumgdo (Y) 663 298 1L3. 666 4638 11690 55 751 Port cases& distrhxo'm an%ji 85 -127 85 -442 1077 75 93 T ta:port Port to holasalerWkk 22 22 -22 22 -22 22 22 22 Trsport Fan to *t,lsl eril/ -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 6 6 Prie e-cdLIl 764 314 979 769 4167 12783 657 o72 processig or t adjusumtw 0.40 0.13 0.67 Net po 4esazowt -110 22 Ecmnc price (Y) 764 314 502 78 4167 127U 440 82 Fnancial pride CY) N*L Mw4 -prouCt t 4h2 328 910 90 3400 6060 -neotted pro-wt dO0 500 840 110 3000 6000 3*0 700 -fre am*at 620 500 900 4600 6000 2000 Price wt Prie () 175 303 172 219 263 Freight CS) 46 34 478 34 34 C= or FM Qi* o ) 221 133 Slt 337 1250 3151 253 297 C1F or FM QLzhwsdwo tY) 821 495 1921 120 4638 11690 99 1102 Port dhaes 6 distrLbutor's uanninj/ 99 -198 138 -442 10" 110 124 Trmpart: Port to whalelrWk 22 22 -22 22 -22 22 22 22 Twwpart: F to holeaLer\l/ -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 6 6 Price eu-Mil 936 511 1695 1404 4167 127 1077 1254 Processing or watet aedJus=xtW 0.40 0.13 0.67 Net prceess cot -110 22 Sco price (Y) 936 Sl 7U 160 4167 12783 721 1254 /a Warld BJk projectLos for 1987 a 2000 in 1947 o.tm wLu, frn MD, "MINCT au lnd wia Asaptimis -d Half-Yarly NAvUim of Cxtdity Price Foeaet ." Sneml M 1nur.m, Sqtmer 197 wd 195 QChinin iport or rtpric fa 1986 Ciese Statistical r (3eljIz: State StatLticel Burem. 1986) an S= Km Tzr Statistic 1ff6 (a t1 : Camzs I Statistics _mruat. 1987). lb CwdLm, No. 1 Qstem RHd SpriMg St. Im_m. Tc US, No. 2 Yellw, EU US Gulf ports. adjusted by a facto of 1.005 to apmte e> w hirme a1mr w1-. /t Dtch saybim olL. crx,. FM ax-mLll. adjusted by a factor of 0.94 to *_ro te the sewge QUine PM a ost pric for a sx of rapeseed, cottoweod, penut. a se_a ois. Ic PM, tAd at greater Caribbe.i prs IA N_ Zeelnl. f£n, 4he *ereass, C, S&ALAable, a-sA.d c t. LL UX, clam 56's, adjstd by factor 0.74 to cavrt to geay wl. asamd cst. / loegd (463 N), PU WVt Dope. /1 D _mpbp l (RN,Im 46X P25). bilk. FM US Iulf. LI Port dsrmn of YI/tce plus 9X distrlbtor's mrln. k *Ama rai fcaijhr ch- (YO-016l/tce Ioz) to caj=U* ar (1420 In) mIltilLed by the ral trout nnie fat of 0.94. Ib Arcgs truk trapot dtmn (YO.2lton 1) to cweudz am (37 im) .uLtLpLisd by the rad teipat coiniu fator of 0.81. Le Mjusmt finE iw aterial to pzeassd prduct might. - 77 - ANNEX 3 Table 2 CHINA NORTHERN IRRIGATIONPROJECT Selected ConversionFactors for Inputs / Conversion Factor Rail Transport 0.94 Road transport 0.81 Construction b 1.23 Equipment 1.14 Consumptionconversion factor /c 1.35 Farm labor /d 0.68 /a Based on an update of estimatedconversion rates in S. Ichishimaand A. Wood, "EconomicAnalysis of Aluminum Milling in Shanghai" (mimeo,May 1982). The update used the exchange rate at negotiationsof Y3.71/US$1.00;1987 domestic and internationalprices; and 1985 Chinese import or export prices from 1986 Chinese StatisticalYearbook (Beijing:State StatisticalBureau, 1986) and Honr Kong Trade Statistics1986 (Hong Kong: Census and Statistics Department,1987). /b Based on 1987 conversionrates for unskilled, technicaland supervisorylabor, steel, timber, cement, machinery, and other nontraded goods or servicesof 0.68, 2.71, 1.35, 1.16, 2.59, 1.06, 1.14, and 1.35 respectively(see note /a). /c Weighted average of ratios of projected1987 economic to financial prices for rice, wheat, corn, vegetable oil, pork and other animal products, sugar, and beverages. The weights are based on 1983 household consumptionsurvey data for Ningxia. /d Fifty percent of the market wage times the consumption conversion factor. kteoo Crop Uudlet at Full D0lo_pnt (Tuenlth) Iwat Corn S tfL r Sugarbet *etsbli; ioblenae Linseed F4doeribf ubit Pete ha. Value n lue AcV. Vlu At.t. J_ dt. Value dt. Value Wt.Vlue A.nt lu ithout Prcojet I_yt Coat. See. 233 13te I13 - 13 6 7.3 2235 22.5 133 So If ~I_t I:*e31 hI~~ 6.36 3300 ~rl US ft 2to0 0 0 330 62 s00 36 =Z 1.-f"1-e - sI's ON 61 100 10 -i - 0 - mm tetuetue 60 7.3 33 7.3 30 6 3 3 . 12023 - Itg, leo ras t,. 00 6273 111 63M III 3630 Id 6373 'fl9 3600 GIGO~~~~~~~~~~~~~I 3900 2 1006 Si VACht n? 19 e 3 33 13 1 s 12 t1o I I's - 0 mu1l 1.3 33 60 St 36 33 33 6 23 26 2 26, 3 33 Drift we~~~~Ai Igo 21233 203 3 403 173 I133 Othet 73 O 90 ISO 'ss ISO is _ittbtxl" 6§ 604 s5 so0 7" $26 200 Pr1_1104o110 Vtem, 2.30 .3 .5 20.00 '0 16.701.S ii.1 Ft L' TiaAt25 2 3Ueo 6o X 0 2e" o li e I5 12O 5 175 o 9ff value V 1300 1300 12tO 2200 2700 2166 1012 ------3D lIt Value V 61 96 973 1300 1932 1336 133 lqet Costs Seeda 3e36 233 flj~~~~~~~~~~~~~12 7 270 100S 21332 33 IC,1I" 7 22 720S2. 27033 13 S 90 00 -. - t:1Z6r3ttboovloo 1$t t 00 1302 2S e3 'zal e1370 13 elOS H 1 9135 63090 103o 73eS 130 1030 FtXr erti- e o V 6'*0 ' 6 1 5t36 10 2 GO I" 120 2 -- ear 0.02 303" 15 6 19 32 5 646Il 30 00 3 1336 G1 S63-i r is 00 61 063 3 3 16 270 0 3 41I 4 Ctl"t~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~I ~ 1:13 36 33 51 1 IG131 50233 36 so III63 goofI5 ItII "on75I5 10 4 3 Otint 26, 75 215 ISO too732130ISO 1 20 163 l 161 I7Ois3 0 oubtotel V 619 563 333 10" 1093 6235 *33 310 value of .tut Yilod tu .36.06 2.30 O 30.00 t 23.00 20.O06O 1.63 3.73 Prtce Ito. 5320 300 660s 11 U 20 7 value T 2133 2300 2130 3300 I73 3300 1316 netValue t 1326 1317 1697 2214 2637 26U 1063 i;ti------w- bl 'OL$bt_ WIW -mu RSA Yumi-: Czp Jdt at ull Dewlqpmt (Yimua) PervmilI Pasture Iuat Gagm unflamr Iilet Linseed Vegetables YVsr I Years 2-4 Year 5 Unit ------_ -- -_ ------__--- thlt Price ht. Value Amt. Value Amt. Value Jrnt. Value ARt. Value Aht. Value hut. Value hit, Valur St. Value With ProJct lwut costs Seea kg 300 179 38 61 IS 21 90 41 90 126 8 225 15 45 -- 0 -- 0 -- 0 C.lcal fextLl.zar (N) kg 0.36 335 i2 545 19 340 122 200 72 240 86 300 108 34 12 -- 0 75 5D Omelcal fertilizer (P) V4 0.70 135 95 150 105 128 89 113 79 112.5 79 150 105 150 105 215 151 -- 0 1eUw ton 6.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- 0 - ° Plt pzrtectten Y 6 3 9 0 0 120 30 30 30 4600 40 Irr4igtln aim 0.09 6525 555 5925 504 4800 408 4350 370 4800 as 6000 510 00 408 4800 408 0 ewtmr7 bxar 15.00 6 90 6 90 6 90 6 90 6 90 6 90 6 90 -- 0 -- Draft umls wmykday 1.13 53 60 36 41 30 34 33 37 44 50 35 39 15 17 15 17 15 17 Labor iAY 150 240 162 105 120 255 110 60 60 20 O(ker Y 75 170 80 50 60 175 60 20 52? a YtalV 1180 1169 853 739 a99 1372 767 625 Value of DAtput 3.DO%aI YIeld ton 4.50 6.75 2.50 3.75 2.25 22.50 2.50%aI 5.00%al Price Y/tmn 520 400 860 400 920 150 value. Y 2340 2700 2150 1500 2070 3375 Net Value Y 1160 1531 1297 761 1171 2003 %at Dry wi&ut. Yian: Fr:uit Tree Budget (YuanIba) Year 1 Years 2-3 Yeas 4-5 Years 6-7 Year 8-9 Year 10 Unit ---- _--- _ ------unit Price hit. Value hAt. Value Amt. Value Ant. Value hnt. Value Amt. UaLue with Project Seed kg 300 240 15 12 -- 0 -- 0 -- 0 -- 0 a al fertilizer (N) kg 0.36 40 14 75 27 75 27 100 36 100 36 100 36 Qmscal fertilizer (P) kg 0.70 120 84 65 46 65 46 85 60 85 60 85 60 taze ton 6.00 -- 0 - 0 -- 0 -- 0 -- 0 -- 0 Plant potectim * 30 150 200 250 300 300 Irrmtihn cual 0.09 3150 268 3150 268 4725 402 6300 536 6300 536 6300 536 1 llhinery hrm 15.00 6 90 3 45 3 45 3 45 3 45 3 45 00 Draft arnals iwoHday 1.13 15 17 15 17 15 17 15 17 15 17 15 17 0 Lar workday 150 170 170 175 190 190 1 Othr Y - 30 60 90 120 150 satotal Y 743 594 796 1033 1113 1143 Value of Ospt Yield ton 0.00 0.00 3.00 6.00 12.00 15.00 Prleo Y/ttu 400 400 400 400 400 400 value Y 0 0 120 2400 48W 6000 met Value Y -743 -594 404 1367 3687 4857 0|1F mt le liATI66 PawEd Farm bilefi (Ytuan OIousehn1d ) PROJECT YEAR t 2 3 4 5 S a 9g 10 II iP i3-3 INIL As IAU\%, 44 grow Val " of Prod.. Sn 277 2727 2gm 321 26 q6411427 426 4U 4464 440 47 477 hdmi husba.dry I w N r 0 47 47 letatl 2265 2J0 3137 35I 316 4900 4=11 bile Sil 5215 5V37 GM6 G pettm E_lmttC c 12U 1212 1305 1*SO 1373 1440 1440 1440 144 1440 1440 14" 1440 "Fl care" SO so 50 boOo 5 bO be free e a 10 lOt 36 4a 34 30 21 A,imetebendryl Go so 6a 16S 240 m 224 35 a3 304 364 24 _atetat l2 141" i4n i i6so 1737 1614 1642 164 1674 U674 174 iS74 2563 3117 3272 3363 3341 3362 2366 2466 541 Fern Income 111 lo6 11 g61m2? 36 Total Ibugehld lncome 2115 2056 2561 2627 36 3817 3773 3263 31141 36 36 466 Labor Aq.l rest 41 427 416 412 431 432 450 418 487 460 460 466 "M1t el JIn,intn\b/ Gre_ Volvo of Production Field crop 2427 2440 2440 2697 er6 31 3413 322 355 3062 3079 32 31613 FIp O O O n 240 no 324 460 a o o6 760 m KI Anleel l.sbsndry 136 13 141 1a 114 111 165 171 177 163 1I" 162 le7 ,ebt7tel 257 1 Om a35 3346 3624 a 41 4322 4425 46a - 416 Preduction Empnitlure. crepe 523 on m on 1216 1662 1o62 lo6 1662 1062 1062 1662 lo62 Field 224 216 m1 316 316 "I 316 Fi1_n o a 6 1la 142 170 a Animal huedry 59 62 65 6 70 73 76 71 el u as miblegel 1012 1216 1623 116 23 136 1362 1457 1451 1462 146 1467 146 not Fer Ince. 1544 1565 1569 1671 2126 2319 2877 273 e26 g 326 212 2142 Total Iecrn WAS4 INS 16s 1967 2206 2396 26517 Om e4 264U 32143 216 33 346 Lmtor _e.i eSt 326 326 321 330 331 333 333 a2 236 336 336 341 MWELCs Yln Lift IrrletioAnc/ ree. Velee of Prodution Field crep 46 16 son 2272 2423 2575 2721 3aI 36 362 32 2616 a a 6 6 16i 403 In an S 36 116 11m 11 125 13 25 00 SO 123 le7 224 26 436 425 45 45 emibtotet 525 1962 le4 2336 276 3161 3460 3653 467 4495 4=60 4150 46 Prodcmtln Eape_iturn Flied cre" 166 1121 1129 1200 1225 1271 1306 1377 1377 1377 1377 1277 1277 Fl td 'cesery S0 276 153 162 114 223 274 274 2Z7 217 En go 'A=lr%d.ndry 25 OS 113 147 176 11 201 m2m m a"iI eubLotet 125 1472 1373 1475 151C 1672 17el 1Me 166 S 16 1ow 166 - . Net Fern Inm 466 510 n2 a2 1113 1436 1720 164 24D1 266 2716 2766 27t ToteS Iscm 10DO 1066 10D0 1000 1163 1510 1no0 2074 2461 2646 2U0 260 2346 2a6 X Laebr ReqIreaset 166 261 2C5 217 270 272 27t 270 204 26 - 2n include \aW The ewerepehouneeld he_ 4.3 rfilll _ sbers en ranie 1.7 he in year I ce 1 hel ho eld Inc_m VS"6 of off-formoe mam. I~t . eb erS oa osmdlcmlcu \1w Lochbheb__d rfere 1.36 he en he 5 really eshre. toet hw_etod incm Include Y6 of off-fare Inee \W/ Eech hocw_ld are. .35 he ais km 5 feiel m_rber. o0l, omeelotd lucene Includee paverneL _ifere maletence ed projectpld as-fern utoweel In yets, 1-4 IV4 V . 1, 7* 1126reegptivet,l eW W in off-fer ncomein lvetr 5-30. - 82 - ANNEX3 cam Table 7 naRS8XmtZRICAT!UIOh*lJCWT Rent nd Cost Recovery Yianan Total 8ta-e ------Project ------Jinyintan Lift Irrigation ------96.300 hbs 3,500 hhs 22,830 hhs 122,630 bas ------Yuan per household ------Y million- At Full Development%&/ IncrementalNot Inco e\b/ 1811 1651 2127 229 Less incremental: Family labor (Laputedvalue)\cl 176 42 558 30 Management services (Liputedvalue)\dl 91 Ss 106 11 Return to own capital (Lputed)\e/ 91 83 43 10 subtotal 357 207 707 51 Equals Project Rent 1454 1444 1420 178 IncrementalProject Charges: Water charges 98 53 287 16 OK obligations%fl 30 -- 61 4 subtotal 128 53 348 20 Rent Recovery Index (Z)\ra 9 4 24 12 Over Proje.3t'sLife\hl -Projct Rent 5099 5431 2648 570 Project Charges Water charges 509 422 1529 85 OM oblLationsafI 184 -- 491 29 subtotal 693 422 2020 114 Rant Recovery Index (W)\oI 14 8 76 20 Projoct Costs%L 576 Reduced Public SubsidiesUjI -- -- 1918 44 Cost Recovery Index (M)WkI 27 %aI Year 2000 incremental income expressedLi constant 1967 values. \bl Before water charges. WcI flmily labor, excludLng O) obligations, valued at Y4.Olvorkday in hetao end Y3.01workday in Ylnnan. Id/ live percent of net increaental income. oI flive percent of not incremental incom in HEtao end Jinyintanand 2S ln Ytinan lift irrigation. fl Flifteen workdays per ha valued at the financial wage rate (see footnotec). WgI Total charges (excluding reduced public subsidies) an a percent of project rent. \hl Exprossedas present values discounted at 122 over the 30 year project life. UiJ Not present value of totaL incremental public outlays, Lcluding settlement and OU costs, but excluding Yinbei studies and those rural developmentcosts which will be recovered from sales to fagmers, foes for service, or loan repayment. %jJ Reductions Ln food, water, and fuel subsidies. \kl Project charges, icludLng reduced public expenditures, as percent of project costs. CHINA NORTHERN IRRICATION PROJECT Economic Costs and Benfits (Hetao) (Yuan mill on) PROJ E C T Y f AA I e 3 4 5 * 7 8 9 1 11 12 13-tS 16-20 21-30 NET WAIE 273.4 Fl-ld cra - - 93.3 127.6 187.1 195.1 2O5.6 256.0 256.0 259.0 259.0 259.0 273.4 273.4 - -3.4 -4.0 -4.5 -4.7 -6.0 2.2 6.6 10.9 14.9 18.9 18.S 18.9 16.6 16.9 Tr crops 21.3 Animltubmaded - - 0.S 2.7 5.5 11.3 15.8 16.9 10.9 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 1T0AL 0.0 -3.4 90.2 120.0 167.9 201.5 253.6 292.5 206.4 215.? 299.2 20.2 313.6 313.6 313.6 - - Civil usA. 21.1 37.0 56.6 56.2 46.2 19.6 16.2 ------on-fordevelopmet 13.2 16.S 26.4 56.4 20.0 56.4 34.5 - - - Electrifiaelon 2.6 5.3 8.C - - - - - *admmanement 6.7 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.0 0.6 - - - - tuiuqserlgm - kercb _ *tra"Im"9\W 3.5 7.6 6.56 .5 6.1 1.0 ------Phpaical centimpaalem 1.7 2.8 4.2 5.8 5.6 4.0 2.5 ------ aat.tel 42.g 74.5 105.1 In.6 126. 20.1 54.1t 40ratli ai lintenumes LabeorW - 0.8 2.2 4.1 6.0 6.9 10.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.5 __nr - 6.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.S E-Pgy\cl - 0.3 O.5 0.S 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 6.6 1.1 1.8 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1' bi tance - 6.2 0o _peir ae replac_*.nW - 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 17.3 2.7 mbtetsl 0.0 1.6 4.1 7.6 12.0 16.1 16.6 20.5 20.5 20.5 26.5 20.5 20.5 S5.1 26.5 TOAL CIIIITS 42.8 76.0 109.2 140.2 136.5 102.2 73.0 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.6 36.1 20.5 UlaUTEAL MET mUnEFITS 313.6 me value - -3.4 90.2 126.0 1U7.9 20M.5 253.0 202.5 20.4 295.2 299.2 290.2 313.6 313.0 ".5 Total Costs 42. 76.0 10.2 146.2 136.5 110.2 73.0 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 35.1 Vithout Project Net value - - 01.0 94.4 97.1 101.1 104.4 107.7 107.7 107.7 107.7 107.7 129.2 166.2 190.2 lncrantel With Project 114.9 Not fettt -42.3 -76.5 -110.0 -10O.6 -M.4 -1.9 70.2 154.2 190.2 167.0 170.6 170.9 164.9 170.3 El = tLt WV = 347.2 \aW Includesbulldtnge atul_ant an materials for taretatrle nd atofiea,s.rainin mgidtechnical eeathtnce. W Includes mannal_ee (VI!I0 of 140 moter _merce Suram StfF mad coautrilted tabor at 3.1 ilttlion weolkeys (15 eaakdoWepar hel. \c/ 20.1 OK%of *tlctrlc pfanr. \IV Inctude.rvplc_mnt Of mtlt p.Ue. electricmotors, Vud otLhr aqulpsat In Veers16 to 20. a-f' CHINA NORTIERNIRRIGATION PROJECT Economic Costs and Benefits (Jinyintan,Yinnan) (Yuan million) PSOJECT VEAF I 2 3 4 5 0 7 a 9 10 11 12 13-9 UT 114UE Field on - 4.7 4.0 0.0 e.g 3.3 Y.7 0.1 0.1 8.1 0.1 0.1 6.4 F _dwas, - - - 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.7 Tom 0.0 4.7 4.7 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.p 0.7 9.1 9.4 9.7 9.0 1.$ CivSl mre 0.0 .1 1.4 1.p - - - - _ _ _ l-fore velep.mt 1.0 1.0 3.0 0.4 ------beitlervMOuqpmest 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.2 -1.2 - - ______asere md wee_mmnt 0.1 0. 0.2 0.2 0.1 ------lraining mg TA 0.1 6.1 0.1 0.1 ------_ __ Flutb - - - 1.S 2.2 - -- Physical conthWcoasi. 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 . subtoeal 3.2 3.9 5.7 4.0 P.0 -1.2 - -- - 117T41 IIET NEFITS c lb Vta. - 4.7 4.? 5.0 0.0 7.3 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 10.1 r t" rats 3.2 3.0 S.? 4.0 e.0 -t.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 VItUta PtFrJu Not Volvo - 4.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.6 4.0 4.1 "Missrje mr..e 1t1 _flto -3.2 -3.0 -5.7 -3.0 -0. 3.9 .0 4.1 4.5 4.0 5.1 5.1 5.5 EM 211 M = 13.0 \W1 ETcluiss cco Uof Setttnunt sW VttaoI Studios. I10,1 of Weratime me mainteanne costs are recovered rre meter roe charged to project or" t _fers. .0 CHINA NORTHERN IRRIGATION PROJECT Econimic Cost and Benfits (Lift Irrigation, Yinnan) (Yuan million) . .. _ ...... _ . .... ~~~~~...... _.______P040ECl YYEAR 12 14 15-20 I 2 3 4 5 6 7 a 6 10 11 12 631 WAISE 36.5 36.6 37.4 27.4 37.4 Field cdpe - 3.8 6.0 11.6 10.9 06.2 30.2 33.6 34.4 35.1 -4.3 -1.7 -. 7 -1.6 0.3 1.9 5.1 7.4 11.1 13.9 I6.6 17.1 1.j Orc*rd - 4.5 4.1 4.1 - -6.5 -4. -t.o -4.1 -1.0 0.3 i.e P2. 3.? 4.1 4.1 4.1 1Timr 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 Animal iwebe_ry - -1.1 -1.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.. -0.3 0.5 .e 4.3 55.3 5S.0 6.6 63.7 64.6 101TO 0.0 0.6 2.3 6.3 15.1 22.9 30.4 37.0 4P.7 bO.0 0l6\.# Invmt_mnt, Civitl riks 4.p 9.3 12.2 11.6 16.2 - ei-fmu dewmiopmt 12.1 11.6 21.5 1.2 15.6 ------Eletrifi 1.6 1. 1.6 1.6 1.0 - - - - -0.7 - - - - lmil*isery _a eqiapmt 1.7 5.1 5.1 4.2 1.4 - 1.7 1.7 1.7 o. ------E.ugimerSngmu munsoemmt 0.5 _ _ TA 0.4 0 0.06 0.6 ------Ire1iim En __ PS'el3cI cstimuaglme 0.6 . t.6 1 1. - - - - _ _ _ __ mlt*tet 21.6 31.6 4S.0 32.2 30.1 -0.7 = _ _ _ _ _ Operation WAcag 1.6 - 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 L.W 2.P 2. 2.6 1.1 2P. Riummmnt - 0.4 6.6 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 5.1 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 .3 tU6f61/ - 1.6 1.S 1.3 1.3 1.3 linuwAot_ - 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 st.imt 6.0 1.6 3.5 6.4 6.2 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 1MAL CO61 21.6 33.2 46.5 44.6 36.3 2.4 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 INCNE0AL NET ITSfl 5.0 565.3 56.0 90.1 63.7 64.6 et; wee" - 0.6 3.3 6.3 15.1 22.8 30.4 37.0 42.7 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 Totat1mo ne2.6 33.2 46.5 44.6 36.3 2.4 47.6 61.4 53.1 W3.5 tmmgmmt.s Ui 6.fNtot 41.6 -22.3 -. 2 -26.4 44.3 60.4 16.2 25.6 2a. 36.6 44.2 rn-S N- W6.m %a9 Incuemmmis moofmItImemImed NWViuaio ltgod$m. i W Vglv. mf 0.47 mUll.n mm*d"em of cmutribated Sber 115 moridaps per blam. sn " ".~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ \.cv W6.7s of mimctric Power required to pwo 13r Ellismn. cob. micoraor woatr et an ovareq e.ighted lift of 156 mat.rm. CHINA NORTHERNIPRIGATION PROJECT SensLtivity AnalysLs Base SvitchLng Base Svitching Base SvLtching Case Values la Change Case Values la Changi Case Values la Change (Y mln) (Y mln) (2) (2) (2) (X) (Y mln) (Y mln) (2) Betao -rehabilLtation 622 1175 +88X 100X 88X -17X 2.7 10.0 +270X Oo Yinnan -expanslon 158 250 +55Z l0OX 81X -18X 2.0 4.3 +11O -rehabilitation 16 23 +88X lOO1 802 -202 2.0 tb lb -total 174 283 +80X 1002 812 -192 2.0 4.7 +130X Total Project 796 1441 +80X 100l 822 -182 Ic Ic +230X la: Percentage change In variable being tested at vhlch NPV of project economiccosts and benefits, discoumted at 12X, ls reduced to zero. lb: ERR is not sensitiveto changes in the value of this varlable. Ic: Absolutevalue of thls varlabledlffers betweenproject areas. Ii - 87 - ANNEX 4 EnvironmentalImpact Study of WuliangsuhaiLake Hetao, Nei Monggol Introduction: 1. Almost all of the drainage water from the Hetao IrrigationArea flows into WuliangsuhaiLake (the Lake) before being dischargedinto the Yellow River. The Lake, a 300 sq km marsh with the water level controlledby a gate, is primarily used for productionof fish and reeds, the latter used as raw material for paper production.Completion of the project's drainage works would increase drainage inflows into the Lake and would result in a temporaryincrease in salinity in the Lake due to leaching of the salinized soils. To assess the effects of increasedsalinity on the ecology of the Lake, the project authoritieshave commissionedthe EnvironmentalHydrogeology Research Institute/a, Ministry of Urban, Rural Constructionand EnvironmentalProtection, to carry out an environmentalimpact study. The study, which began in May 1987, is expected to be completedby June 1988 with an interim report made available in December 1987 and the draft final report scheduled in March 1988. Initial findingsbased on existing data suggest that project activitieswould have no significantadverse environmental effects on WuliangsuhaiLake. On the contrary, the environment in the long run would be expected to be enhanced as a consequence of (a) the increasedvolume and circulationof water in the Lake resulting from increasedinflows, (b) the substantialreduction of present salinizedsoil areas, and (c) the increase in area under vegetativecover that would support a larger number of species of flora and fauna. Scope of Study 2. The study covers the following fields: i) Water pollution by industrial effluents and urban dischargesfrom the drainage area of HIA; ii) Present and future water salinity level in the Trunk Drain and the Lake and its effect on fish; iii) An assessmentof the effect of agro-chemicalson the water quality; iv) An assessmentof residue of heavy metals in fish; v) Hydrogeologyof the Lake and effect of salinity intrusion into the Lake's surroundingarea; and vi) Proposals for water qualitymanagement. /a The Institute is assisted in the study by: The China EnvironmentalResearch Academy ChangchunCollege of Geology Taiyuan IndustrialCollege Nei Monggol Water Resources Design Institute Ba League EnvironmentalMonitoring Unit - 88 - Initial Findings 3. Water Pollution: The environmentalstudy team has conducted surveys of industrialeffluents from some 15 major factories (food processing,tannery, paper mill, brewery, etc) and urban discharges from major townships in the project area. The surveys included samplings,estimation of effluent volumes, mode of dicharge and analysis of pollutants.Industrial effluents were estimated at 1.9 million m3/year and urban dischargesat 2.7 million m3. Since the factoriesand urban centers are dispersed and located some distance (150-160km) from the Lake, most of the pollutantsare substantially degraded and diluted as they move through the system of drainage channel. Water samples collectedat Dengkou for the Trunk Canal and at Honghebu for the Trunk Drain have been analyzed for 14 parameters (Table 1). The pollution index (pi) for each of the 14 parameters was determinedusing the formula in Table LA. The overall pollution index (p) for the water samples are then compared with the Chinese National Standardsfor SurfaceWater Class III (Table IA). Sampling results show that the water quality in the Trunk Canal at p - 0.27 and that of the Trunk Drain at p - 0.35 and the Lake at p - 0.31 are withir.the category of "still clean" which has a range of p - 0.2 - 0.4, except for chromium which is near the standard limit. A comparison of these Chinese standardswith the FAO recommendedguidelines /a for maximum concentrationof trace elemnents in irrigationwater for continuoususe on all soils shows the Chinese standards to be much more stringent.The Institutehas recommendedcontinued monitoring of the industrialeffluents and, if necessary,imposition of pollution controls on those factorieswhose effluentsexceed the pollution limits. 4. Salinity Levels: The study team carried out salt balance studies for the project area using the differenitdrainage modules designed for different soil types, topographicalconditions and degree of salinization.With completionof the project's drainage works, the total annual drainage flow in the Trunk Drain is expected to increase from 550 mln. m3 to about 800 mln. m3 with a salinity level of about 2.0 gm/l. After discharginginto the Lake the salinity level would increase to about 3.0 gm/l due to the concentration process caused by evaporationlosses in the Lake (300 mil. m3). However, the annual flood and precipitation(total 116 mln m3) would dilute this salinity level to about 2.6 gm/l and the existing water in the Lake with a salinity of 1.8 gm/l would dilute further the salinity level to about 2.3 gm/l. The projected monthly salinity levels for 1990 to 2003 (Table 2) shows declining salinity levels after peaking at 2.3 gm/l in 1998. 5. These projected salinity levels are well below the historical record of high salinity levels in the Lake (Table 3 ). Experimental results in China have shown that silver and common carp (the predominant species in the Lake) can tolerate the followingsalinity levels: /a: FAO Drainage & IrrigationPaper No.29 "Water Quality for Agriculture"published in 1979. - 89 - Carp Silver Carp Fingerlings 6 gm/i 5-6 gm/i Current Year Fish 7-10 gm/i - Adult Fisf 10 gm/i 8-10 gu/l The above salinity toleranceis supportedby the fish harvest tonnage recorded in Table 3 for the years 1975-80 during which the Lake had high salinity level ranging from 3.3 to 8.8 gm/l. 6. Effects of Airo-chemicals: Annual records of types and quantitiesof agro-chemicalsused are availablefrom 1977-86. The use of fertilizer inreasedprogressively from 18,000 mt in 1977 to about 227,500 mt in 1986. The use of pesticides /a varied with the year dependingon the prevailingpest situations.Annual quantitiesrange from 210,000 kg to 700,000 kg. The average fertilizerapplication during 1983-86was about 0.5 ton/ha and pesticideswas only about 1.0 kg/ha. Water samples have been collected at the outfall of the Trunk Drain into the Lake and in the northern and southern parts of the Lake for analysis of agro- chemical substances.Results in Table 4 show very low levels of the pesticides listed and no detectable trace of 1605, Roger, DDV, DDT and other harmful pesticides. 7. Under the project 20,000 mt of DAP fertilizerwill be applied as a soil amendmentafter drainage improvementto improve the soil nutrients.This quantity representsan average of 0.09 ton/ha or 18% increase over the present average applicationrate (0.5 ton/ha).No pesticideswill be provided under the project. 8. Residual Heavy Metals and Fluoride in Fish: Fish samples were collected in June 1987 from the northern and southern parts of the Lake for analysis of residualheavy metals and fluoride. The average values are shown in Table 5. The mercury (Hg) residues are well below the Chinese permissiblestandard of 0.3 ppm for fish. No Chinese standardshave been establishedyet for fluoride,copper and zinc. However, the waters in the Lake contain a very low level of these elements (Table 1). Other heavy metals, cadmium and lead, have not been detected in the analysis. 9. Salinity Intrusionto Peripheryof the Lake: Due to sub- surface f'nws, both vertical and horizontal,between the Lake and its periphery,it would be necessary to study the possible effect of salinity intrusion into the aquifers of the Lake's surrounding areas by a mathematicalmodel with a set of pre-determinedboundary conditions. Borings have been made to obtain the hydrogeological profiles of the Lake and its periphery. The Institute is setting up the model in collaboration with the Department of Civil Engineering, Universityof Wisconsin,USA. The model will project more accurately the salinity changes in the Lake and its periphery and will be used /a Including fungicides and herbicides. - 90 - for future water quality management.Results of the study would be expected to be made availablein June 1988. Follow-upActions 10. During appraisal the project authoritieshave agreed to the follow-upactions summarizedbelow: a) Complete collection, analysis and evaluationof data and setting ip of the mathematicalmodel for more refined projection of salinity changes; b) Work out a contingencyplan with strategiesto be adopted should the salinity exceed the safe level projected; c) Complete the draft final report in March 1988; and d) Strengthen and expand the existing network of sampling stations to monitor the water quality in the main drains, Trunk Drain and the Lake. Conclusion 11. The environmentalimpact study carried out is comprehensive and reflects the interest of the project authoritiesin environmental issues. Based on the existing data and initial findings, the following conclusionscan be drawn: a) The temporaryincrease in salinity in the Lake is gradual and the projectedpeak level of 2.3 gm/liter is well within the tolerancelevels for the fish in the Lake. The reeds and cattails, which have much higher salinity tolerancelevels, will not be affected by the projected salinity increase.Contingency plans can be worked out, if necessary,to contain the increase in salinity through periodic flushingof the Lake, especiallydturing the wet months, and releasingfresh irrigationwater into the Lake. However, it appears unlikely that these stanby measures would be required. b) The present pollutionof drainage water by industrial effluentsand urban discharges is not related to the project and would not be aggravatedby project's activities.Although the present degree of pollution in the Lake is still within the Chinese standards, the project authoritieswould consider imposing pollution control at source on some of the factories whose effluents exceed the pollution limits. c) The draft final report for the environmentalimpact study would be available in March 1988. The recommendationsfor water quality managementwould be reviewed to insure that project activitieswould comply with the Chinesa standardsfor environmental control. An assuranceon this was obtained from the Government during negotias:ions. AMNU 4 cIam TAMLE1 JORTHERN IRRIGATI0 PROJECT -__------Eatao: PollutLon Index of Water ln Trunk Canal and Drain and VulLangsuhai Lake ------__------__------Itea/ Chinese lb PAO la ---- Trunk Canal ------Trunk Drain------Wu1Langsuhai Lake---- Parameters Standards Guide.lLnas Tested Calculated TSsted Calculated Tested Calculated (ClIas III) Values Index (pi) Values Index (pL) Values Tndex (pL) pR 6.5 - 8.5 - 8.29 0.86 8.24 0.83 1.5 0OD5 <12 mg/i - 4.13 0.34 5.3 0.43 0.8 BODS <3 - - - 1.64 0.54 0.55 DiJ. Oxygen >4 - 7.35 0.17 5.27 0.68 0.17 Fluoride <1.0 <1.0 mg/i 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.57 Chorldes <0.2 - None 0 None 0 0 Phenol <0.005 - None 0 0.005 1.02 0.036 Chromlum <0.05 0.1 0.05 1 0.014 0.28 0 Arsenic <0.05 0.1 0.015 0.3 0.015 0.3 0.014 Morcury (0.0005 N.A. None 0 none 0 0.6 Copper <1.0 <0.2 0.022 0.22 0.022 0.22 0.076 Aluamnlim <0.05 <5.0 None 0 None 0 0.014 Zinc <3.0 <2.0 lone 0 None 0 0.008 CadmiuM <0.005 <0.01 None 0 None 0 0.02 Overall Pollu- tlon indGA (P) 0.27 0.35 0.31 - a Source: CIGIS, MLnistry of Urban and Rural Constructlon and Environmental Protection. tat Recommended mazx_im concentration of trace elements in LrrLgation waters to be used continously on all soils. Ref. PAO Drainage & Irrigation Paper No.29 'Water QualLty for Agriculturs' pubiLshed La 1979. lb% Chinese national standards for surfae wator have flve classes I to V ranked ln descending order of quality. Class III refers to water vwth still good quality ANNEX 4 -92 -aF*T CHDI# NATIONALStADAS !IUACE WATEROIAlUITY CLANUFICATION Pollution CLoaoi- Clasaification Ind" ficatlon Criteria (PI <0.2 Cleon Manyof parameters not deteoted, detected are within standard Liitu. 0.2 - 0.4 Stt II Parameters dotcted are within LimitS CLean or one parameter near standard tliits. 0.4 - 0.7 LightLy One paremeter sLightLy exceed PoLLuted standardlimits. 0.7 - 1.0 Moderately Two parameters exceed standard Limits. Pol luted 1.0 - 2.0 HeaviLy Substuntial parameters ee standard Polluted Limits. >2.0 Seriously SubstantiaLparameters exceed tendaand Polluted limits a ft tims or in tansof tin". POLLUTIONINIQBC FOEMLA sheres P a overaLL poLLution indes pit potLution index for individuaL parameter Cia valuse tastedof individuaL peramters Cois pollution standsrd limits setfor individual perameters. Salnty Projections in WulLr.nsuhai Lake by Salt Balance Nodel (Unit: Sulit.r) ------ Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jim Jul Aug Sep Oct Now Doe 1990 1.60 1.60 1.61 1.64 1.81 1.77 1.46 1.50 1.41 1.34 1.25 1.34 1993 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.39 1.53 1.67 1.53 1.46 1.41 1.35 1.29 1.39 1992 1.40 1.41 1.42 1.44 1.60 1.64 1.62 1.57 1.52 1.46 1.40 1.51 1993 1.52 1.!p 1.53 1.56 1.72 1.76 1.75 1.70 1.65 1.58 1.52 1.62 1994 1.63 1.63 1.64 1.67 1.85 1.88 1.87 1.82 1.79 1.70 1.63 1.79 1995 1.73 1.74 1.75 1.78 1.96 2.00 1.98 1.94 1.90 1.80 1.73 1.82 1996 1.82 1.83 1.84 1.87 2.06 2.10 2.09 2.05 2.01 1.91 1.82 1.91 1997 1.91 1.92 1.93 1.96 2.16 2.?10 2.19 2.16 2.12 2.00 1.91 1.99 W 1998 1.99 2.00 2.01 2.04 2.26 2.30 2.29 2.25 2.21 2.09 1.99 2.06 1999 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.11 2.33 2.35 2.27 2.19 2.13 2.01 1.98 1.95 2000 1.95 1.96 1.99 2.20 2.23 2.14 2.06 1.99 1.87 1.75 1.81 1.99 2001 1.81 1.82 1.83 1.86 2.05 2.10 2.00 1.91 1.84 1.73 1.62 1.67 2002 1.67 1.68 1.69 1.72 1.90 1.96 1.86 1.76 1.69 1.59 1.48 1.53 2003 1.53 1.54 1.55 1.58 1.75 1.83 1.72 1.61 1.54 1.45 1.34 1.39 Sourc-s Einvromsental HydrogeoloSy Raceerch Institute, Mlnistry of Urban, Rural Construction and EnvirorAmntal ProtectLon, China 4> ANN~EX4 94ITable 3 Nm_ ZINUATIM PU11IC HetuRsf a elUstinity ad NerveH" boards In WuLIauhai Lake Yoe Flew late the LAk* I Flaw fue t_ LAke I Harvest ToA_e Total a a I I Vetle Volms bLini tZ I Values letinity I Fish feeds Cattilt I a)ll I (el. as) (WL) I (ta*e) (teen) I ta)l (Y utfl.) I (el.W (go/Li I 1MO 3 * 8670 1178 4"36 3 3470 405 713 1.5 I tI a * 146 113 10.5 ti a . * mo1 taO? n.e. 3.03 a 1954 a0 370 330 M1. /a 1Ur5 I 30m GM 360 I'm I 1mm a a 3000 700 340 I.M I Is" gon~aa03 MD to o.u. 1M a a m000 300 30 0.47u m n60 o 137 50 .31 a 1M70 1n 1.3 * 39.0 ON00 1751 46 0.= 1371. 1i6n 1.96 s 10.flo' 0 sma 115 1.411 18M3 11 1.95 a .4 SW51 40010 146 1.6M 1373 1in 1.1 6e 10. L* a 0 gm3 Ile 0.ot a i974a 107 1.36 70.7 a 300 3441 106 60.3 /a I iP 16n 1.00 a 466 6.331 Sa5 350 363 00.74 1976 I4.5 a 16. 7.53 5 0 130 73 Dow6 1677 373 13 a 37.5 5.73 5 00 a 1.773 3so0 3.00 163.0 4.34 930 74 m 1.00 16663S1 113750 1.54 .0o 355.0171.0 3.53 1 s 8 505600 137 9.. UM i 1.77 1. 2.5 a 0 amm U 3.04 3 36130 1,70 . 87.4 3.73 . 110 507 14O t.U6 10 300 1.5 , 13. u.a 1060 14607 3.3 1b16 a5 1" 3310 1" a 140 a00 90 4.60. 3641 466 1.1 05.0 13 u 11*0 10o0 note 0, 16 s 54t 1.16 3 040 160 1000 1l10 64 71.4 a /as Trunk Orain conatnimted duroi '196547 and enLarged during 1975-76, 1.? os imprsead aftamude1. /bs Competien of the outftll ohannet frm the Lake to the Yellow River in 136 inrtead outflo f w the Lake. ANNEX 4 _ 95 _ Table 4 CHIM NuaKTh ZISUATICNPfiOJUC Hotes Anotyo10of Woter in gatLinsuhet Lake ftor Aro-oh_inoeL Insecticides TrunkDrain Northern Part *0uthern Per Hmonhobu of Lake Ot Lake (ppm; !ppm1 (PPm) etneoneHx_e- chLoride (SK 1.0136 0.0136fl o.71 Umedicide/a 0.0oe 0.0134 0.0143 O (DPtichLOornool 0.00107 Not dotected Not dotcted 3911 0.1136 0.22 0.134 /as Product's nme not Identified. ANNEX 4 Table 5 Reeduo of Heavy Netelo * FLuoride In Fish - CaCo-p -S tLvrC rp- -Locat Spmo0i- Chemicat South of North of South of North ot South of North of Etomnto Lake Lake Lake Lake Lake Lake In Foash FL Eppml 2.4 3.554 2.418 0.n74 1.6 3.36 Hg 0.0002 0.00 .008 a.lOnE 0.005 0.0033 Zn 1.114 1*34 1.40 1d40 0.49 Cu 0.50W 0.382 0.4 0,347 1.U4 In Orgen FL (ppml 0.715 0.19 1.028 Zn 3.400 3.17 Cu 1.448 3.13 Sources Chinese Environtn:aL ResearchAcdeqy Notes fther heavy motale, Cd end Pb, have not boen detectedin the onaLyso10 - 96 - ANNEX 5 CHINA NORTHERN IRRIGATIONPROJECT Ningxia ResettlementComponent 1. Rural Poverty and the ResettlementProgram. Though long consideredone of China's "bread baskets,"Ningxia is also the location of some of the nation's most severe rural poverty. This poverty is concentratedin areas of limitednatural resources in eight upland rainfed counties and four densely populated cf mties serviced by gravity irrigationsystems. The majority of the poor reside in the upland counties in southern Ningxia where rainfall is bighly variable and averages only 200 mm annually. Crops fail :-re often than not and the hardships of low and variable levels of crop productionare made worse by unsafe drinking water and inadequatefuel supplies for cooking and heat..ng.A lesser number of the poor reside in upland counties lttrtherto the south where rainfall is more plentiful, averaging403-500 mm annually. However, agriculturalproduction in these higher altitude areas is constrainedby the short frost free period of only 100 days. Lastly, another group of the poor lives in four counties in central Ningxia servicedby gravity irrigationfrom the Yellow River. Cultivatedland is as low as one mu per capita in some villages, and productivityin outlying areas suffers from salinity and waterlogging. 2. In 1978, Regional authoritiesestimated that the absolute poor residing in these areas numbered at least 400,000 and that minority groups comprised about half of this population. Current annual per capita income among these 400,000 averages under Y80, or less than one-fifth the national average. Through transfers in cash and in kind, the governmentsupplements this income to a minimum subsistencelevel -- currentlypegged at Y200 -- which is sufficientto maintain life but results in standards of physical well-beingsignificantly below the average for the Region as a whole. For instance,expectation of life at birth in Guyuan Prefecture,where most of the Region's absolute poverty is concentrated,is only 62.2 years, or about 5% less than the Regional average of 65.5 years and 12% below the figure for Yinchuan Citj of 70.4 years. Similarly,crude mortality in Guyuan Prefecturein 1982 was 0.77%, or one-thirdgreater than the mortality rate of 0.58% for the Region as a whole. Crude mortality in Jingyuan County in Guyuan Prefecture,at 0.84%, was more than double that of Yinchuan City at only 0.41%. 3. Based on estimatesof the carrying capacity of the land and the potential for off-farm employment,the Regional Governmentresponded to this chronic absolute poverty by establishinga long run plan to resettle about 300,000 of the poor to newly developed irrigatedareas. (Income levels among the 100,000 inhabitantsto remain in the upland and the irrigated - 97 - areas are expected to rise substantiallydue to the large increasesin per capita land holdings.) During the first phase of the resettlementprogram, 1978-1986,about 120,000upland and 10,000 irrigatedareA farmers were given the opportunityto resettle. About 100,000 of these settlers relocatedwithin their own county; the other 3C,000 traveled somewhat greater distances (between100 to 200 km) to irrigationareas in adjoining counties. Nearly all of these 130,000 settlers moved to the newly irrigatedareas servicedby the Tongxin and Guhai lift irrigationsystems. Details of the plan, disaggregatedby county and by time period, are summarizedin Table 1. 4. Organizationand Funding. Ningxia's resettlementplan is organizedand supervisedby the AgriculturalPlanning Commissionof the Regional Government. Within the Agricultural Commission,the MountainousArea Departmentoversees identificationand selection of settlers,the Irrigation DevelopmentDepartment coordinatesthe timely completionof new irrigationareas, and the Finance and Planning Department integratesthe resettlementprogram into Regional planning. Implementationof the plan, includingselection of settlers and completion of on-farm works, is handled by the Agricultural ConstructionOffice at the prefecturaland county levels and by township and village governmentsat the lowest levels. Beginning in 1983, the Region's resettlementprogram has received organizationaland funding support from the Three Xi Commission. Establishedby the Central Government in that year, the Three Xi Commissionwas charged with the responsibilityof guiding agriculturaldevelopment and resettlementin Gansu and Ningxia and guaranteedan annual budget of Y200 million for a period of ten years. Ningxia now receives about Y20 million annually from this source. Total expenditurefor the resettlerientprogram in Ningxia during the period 1978-86, includingirrigation development and resettlement, is estimated at Y188 million. About half of these funds have been provided by the Central Government,mostly in the form of constructiongrants from the Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power for irrigation system developmentduring 1978-82 and as developmentgrants from the Three Xi Comission during 1983-86 for on-farm works. Regional and local funding and contributedlabor, accountingfor the other half of total expenditure,have been used primarily for on-farm works, transportof settlers,housing and agricultural setup costs. 5. SelectionCriteria and Implementation. Resettlementis on a strictly voluntarybasis. In practice, the number of householdswishing to resettle exceeds availableslots, and selectionhas been competitive. Key selectioncriteria are the degree of poverty and the ability to open up new land. Settler householdsmust have average annual per capita income of less than Y150 and per capita grain productionof no more than 100kg. The family must have an adequate number of able-bodiedworkers with, at the minimum, lower middle school education. These selectioncriteria insure that the program benefits are targetted to those most in need and that thoue moving to the new irrigation CINAU RNEM IrR TIN PRJUMT TABLE 1s NIite Rio o tmlRsnettlemet Plsn 1'000 thitantol Totat 133 Fuetur Ptoel" - -at ttleet Pto_ to be RAsettled Carryiq Capacity Popeeatio - RPsettied ODmgrig ceft yet to be D D LocaLity Under Pte 1 Ppelotloe Agriculture Other Total Resettled 136 3mu Total Nlinxia Totat am IN 373 EU 3553 170 U a B 173 byma Prefletmee pW"m amty 45 24 ms as 37 U I * t10 El -UeiyeenCeuty 31 14 33 40 11 351 17 3 6 3 17 -ij jI onty 4 4 337 1 337 0 - - - Lofgd Coumty 30 7 In 1IN a 146 33 3 a 13 El -JIywm County 30 a Be11 S 21 - 7 15 a -poasi4 County 15 5 117 162 5 187 10 - 10 - 10 subtotl, 1taa 1454 1 7a 90Is 16 as _ _ . _ _ ~------a Tln Prefecture -ToROxin County 75 6 33 190 14 207 13 0 13 14 -yncbl county 32 1 140 U I IN 32 Is13 - is -ZhoneloI County 16 10 271 230 37 3 5 - B - B -zhong1nlConty a 1 196 1 30 1 7 - 7 - 7 -Unbho City 5 0 173 m 5 5 6 - - L1ngu Conty 10 0 207 152 4i 137 10 10 - - 10 sbtotal 145 12U17 low 139 11S 78 2n 44 14 76 - -_- a - _ - 99 - areas are capable of the arduous labor required during the initial years of land development. In addition,preference is given to households residing in areas with unsafe drinking water, in'dequatefuel supplies,or where rainfed agricultural productionhas led to environmentaldestruction. Formal selection of settler householdsbegins with the determinationby the Regional AgriculturalCommission of the number of slots availablefor each county. The AgriculturalConstruction Office within each county then designatesthose townshipswhich will be eligible for participationin the selectionprocess. Each township then determineswhich villages will participateand village leaders select candidatehouseholds. Townships and county authoritiesscreen and approve the final list of candidate households. In addition to this formal process, a small number of highly motivatedhouseholds have in the past "self-selected." Project staff estimate that such households,having moved into the newly irrigatedareas without prior official approval, comprisedabout 10% of the settler families in the first phase of the resettlementprogram. 6. A random sample survey of 752 settler households, conductedby the PopulationResearch Instituteof the Ningxia Academy of Social Sciences in 1986, clearly showed that this first phase of the resettlementprogram had been highly successful. The settlerhouseholds realized significant improvementsin average per capita income within the first years of relocation,increasing from about Y100 to over Y300. Settler families retain rights to their rainfed farm areas for the first three years after relocationand are allowed to reverse their decision and return to those lands at any time during this start up period. However, the survey study showed that very few settler householdshad misgivingsabout having made the move and that none had opted to relocate back to their original lands. Project ResettlementComponent 7. Organizationand Management. Project supported resettlementof 10,830 households to newly expended or completed irrigationareas would closely follow the guidelines established during the first phase of the Regional resettlementprogram. A ResettlementUnit, with responsibilityfor overall coordination of the project resettlementprogram, has been establishedwithin the Regional PMO. Project resettlementunits will also be establishedwithin the prefecturaland county level PMO's, and will be in charge of day to day implementationof project resettlement. The Regional ResettlementUnit will receive guidance from the Regional AgriculturalCommission. The prefecturaland county level resettlementunits will share staff and work closely with existing resettlementagencies at the prefectural,county, township and village levels in the selection of settler households,scheduling of relocation,and setup during the first few years. The Regional ResettlementUnit has completed a draft report, availablein the project files, which details the organizationac:id management, costs, scheduling, - 100 - establishmentof social services,and other aspects of the project's resettlementcomponent. A special unit would be establishedwithin the Guyuan PrefecturalAgricultural ConstructionOffice for ongoing monitoringand evaluationof resettlement. It is expected that this M&E work would be undertakenin close coordinationwith the PopulationResearch Institut-of the Ningxia Academy of Social Sciences. S. Costs and Scheduling. Total expenditurefor the project's resettlementcomponent, including transportof family members and their belongings,first year housing, farm inputs and machinery, rural electrificationand water supply, social services, engineeringfees, and contingencies,is estimatedat Y70 million. These costs are detailed in Annex 2 Table 11. During project implementation,the 10,830 settlerhouseholds will be organized into 3 townshipsand 26 village 'centers." These village centers will provide education,health, and other social services to 117 villages each comprisingbetween 90 to 100 households. To facilitate organization and management of the resettlement program, the three townships would be established during the first years of project implementationwith an administrativebuilding, health center, cultural center, high school, agro-technicalextension center, and animal husbandry station to be constructedin each townshipby 1990. Establishmentof the village centers, includingan administrative office, health clinic, elementaryschool, and rudimentary agroprocessingfacility, would also begin in the first years of project implementationand would be completedby 1992. With the assistanceof the project, rural electrificationwould be completed to the village center level. Extensionto the village and household level would be paid for by the villages and householdsand, in most cases, be undertakenafter project completion. Each householdwould receive building materials and technicalassistance for the constructionof rudimentaryhousing, to oe built on a concrete pad measuring 8 by 10 meters, and an underground cistern for drinkingwater. Adjoining each home would be a small area for individualfamily vegetable gardens and fruit trees. The ResettlementDivision has completeddetailed layouts, which are available in the project files, for typical towns, village centers, villages, and householdplots. 9. Project resettlementwould be on a strictly voluntary basis and competitionfor availableslots is expected to be keen. Selectionof householdswill commence in early-1988and will be based on the criteria establishedduring the first phase of the Regional resettlementprogram (para 5). About 8,300 settler households,or three-quartersof the total, will be selected from upland rainfed areas and the other 2,500 households from densely populated irrigated areas. Most households will relocate within their own county to project areas situated no more than 50 to 100 km from their villages. A lesser number of households will resettle to project areas in adjoining counties some 100 to 150 m from their villages. Typically, the first settlers would be adult male fid ly members who would be employed in construction of project works and land levelling. These workers would return - 101 - home during the harsh winter period and return in the spring with their remaining family members to complete land preparationand housing and plant the first year's crops. About 1200 households will relocate during the first and fifth years of the project. rhe majority of households are scheduledto move during the second, third and fourth years. More than half the households will relocate to the Guhai and Tongxin project areas. Scheduling of relocationand completionof social services at the town, village centers, and village levels are detailed in Table 2. 10. Household Income. The typical settlerhousehold will have an average annual per capita income of less than Y80 or, for a family of five, a household income of Y400 or less. Through transfersin cash and in kind, the governmentcurrently augments household income to a target level of Yl,000 -- thereby insuring x-Aintenanceof at least minimum standards of food intake,health care, and physical well-being. Since on farm income is expected to fall below this level during the first four years of resettlement,household income will be maintained at a minimum of Y1,000 through continuedgovernment transfersand project-paidon farm employment. In addition, each householdwill receive farm inputs, includingseed and other plarting materials and chemical fertilizer,and tools during the first year of resettlement. Loans of up to Yn,000 per householdwill also be made available for the joint purchase of small tractors and attachments. These loans would be repaid without interest over a period of 15 years, including10 years grace. Based on these standardsand crop budgets for newly irrigatedareas, a farm model for a typical family of five farming 1.35 ha of land indicatesthat annual net household income would steadily increase from Yl,000 during the first four years after resettlementto Y2,840 at full development in year 13 (paras 6.2 to 6.3 and Annex 3 Table 6). - 102 - ANNEX 5 Table 2 CHINA NOUrHI IffISATCNPNOhEC Raaetlnet Ceata ad IsheduLing Caender Year 1 11 16 15 TYtL No. of SettLers (Persons) 0 2416 31 10 0 woo Towagxn 0 gm0 Om0 0 0 1305 Langpizlt ienS 166 75 5575 1350 46 Jlnyintnn 0 0 1600 30 5og0 Totat 500 14175 100 15871 3300 Sa1n Irrigation Area DevoLopient the) Tongxln 0 U47 1300 am6 0 gm07 Ouaha1 0 1467 158 0 0 am0 LengptzlLlang 0 067 1547 Jinyinten 0 0 TotaL 807 33 473 40 m 1S40 Cost Summry IY mLn) RaLoostion 0.5 3.5 4.6 4.0 0.0 13.6 Fer- Inputs 0.8 1.4 1.0 1.6 01 5.4 Foar mehinery I tooLo 1.0 6.5 a.l6.1 1.9 1.7 vater uppLy 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.l 0.1 3.7 a0.4 1.Q 0.0 0.3 0.l 3.4 Runl*t aetricitV 11.0 So010L Lurvicoo 0.7 2.8 2.9 3.5 S.o Other engineering ooto 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 3.5 PhysicaL contingooy 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 9.7 Price contingenoy 0.2 1.1 1.J 1.1 0.9 490 Total 3.7 19.2 21.2 1.9 0.0 Completi0n of 801iaLServiose (No.) Ad.inistrativo butIdingas Town 1 2 - - - 3 VitLage Center - a 9 0 1 n Health Centers a CLinical Town - - 1I - 1 ViLoLge Center 2 7 S 8 - n 80hootOt 3 Secondary -I-- Primry 2 9 8 3 Centers - - 1 2 _ S Culturat _ 3 Agro-taoh. Extension Centers 2 1 - - An1tea Huobendry Station 1 1 1 - - Agroa1ndustry Enterprises Tmon 1 1 1 VIlLoge Center 2 7 7 8 3 U - 103 - ANNEX 6 CHINA NORTHERN IRRIGATIONPROJECT Related Documents and Data in the Project File A. General Raports and ReferenceMaterials *A.1 Hetao IrrigationArea RehabilitationProject, Inner Mongolia *A.2 Agricultural Geography of Inner Mongolia *A.3 China's StatisticalYearbook, 1986 *A.4 AgriculturalStatistical Yearbook, 1986 *A.5 China Natural Geography Map Series *A.6 Villages in Progress in Ningxia B. Proiect PreparationReports and Related Documents Hstao: *B.1 Pre-appraisal Report of Hetao IrrigationProject as prepared by Nei Monggol Water Resources Design Institute (Two volumus and tables). *B.2 Estimates for agriculturalcomponent prepared by the Ba League AgricultureDepartment. *B.3 Project economic analysis prepared by Nei Monggol Design Institute. *B.4 Preliminary environmental impact studies report on WuliangsuhaiLake Hetao prepared by the EnvironmentalHydrogeology Research Institute,Ministry of Urban, Rural Construction and EnvironmentalProtection . B.5 EnvironmentalImpact Assessment by D. Messersmith. Yinnan *B.6 FeasibilityReport of Yinnan IrrigationProject prepared by Ningxia project authority includingannex on agriculture and settlement. *B.7 Separate design reports for Guhai, Tongxin, Langpiziliangand Jinyintan irrigationsubareas by Ningxia Water Resources Design Institute *B.8 Settlement Plan for Guhai, Tongxin, Langpiziliangand Jinyintan irrigation subareas. *B.9 Proposals for Engineeringand Agriculturalstudies of Yinbei Area. *B.10 Summary of Survey of Settlers in Ningxia by the Population Research institute,Ningxia Academy of Social Sciences. * Written in Chinese - 104- Chart 1 CHIA ITlBl SR ICASg PROC NI- oEl Irrigation Aace - s |el Moo~ael Water Resources Sures tinistraeion n narn Kacas~ Pisanina Cn-Psz. and Pasture Irri.tion lae Construction , Soll fAd Water Conseation Degign gainerin4 Rsearch Water Ibsures *rolo- $g t Water Technca Hatc1s 5ott nd sydiaulic Snutl- Constfe- Institute Secondry Oad gical Suroaus | Resources workers SuppLy Water nehLneir cute etlon Bureau Vocatlnal Genral 1 H.uanghe Pasture Schools Station Conservation works Colleges StatLon 2iongshan Planng Statieon 3.0Dngkou | Unit Puempina Station I I…I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Da Leasue Water Resources Bateo Irrigation Area Manaent 1 3 @iau' Ceneral a ,&12 Personnel Manasmene Hydrate 3searehststion Center Stations Mainistrat ion Science asiA Edue-tion Isalinit 1tAomarimnt unsnanc Pastur Areas Politcal Offtol lcinasa Enaineeri" _ 1 ell Drilling ter Conarol Center Irrition/D flood Con rol . h n _ Ins insrin_ an sn .. A&unsJsLna Llbhe Water Water hydrology Sydro- Water Ressur!os I I i Water & Soil Resour- Station aechanical Survey Dssr- Main Trunk Main first Llberation Yon6jL cang Wulate Reso- Coser- cos Re- Works Teas Canal Trunk Canal Sluico Canal Caal Canal urces vntlon search Team DTLn *Gale School Station Instituto County Water a Resources Bureaus 73 maneen Offleos 7) 7" * 21E Managemne Sections * | Operation end TovnshplpViliag* Water I , Matene Resource Station I expenditures I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I. Water Lees Water User…- rcoups ' * ^ ^ * ^ * ^ ^ * ^ ^ a ^ a ^ ^ a ^ ^ ^ ------Lndlcates Technical advice 11 Bandles coustruction. water distribution, salinity control blow LateraLs. 12 BandLes constretion, water distribution, salinity cotrol down to and incLudin Laterals. gmCH^ - chart 2 ELfl*zi ZIrsIGArIa hftCieef rimmi o-fm SmiL a SLem.. Mater CuhaL QIaMAS Qiusam CaaL mulne Teo"LL SO"" TeJja A" Cer- mator Mater and Reseuscee PU CAalI CaMIAl C_act Cave CaML CSrnL Cm"l 2 trit"tieft eaes Ceasw- Ud ea- Namge- Irsit$g- Dept. D"t. 1 _e ,. Dei Det Sept vaties tLe seat Dept tILe St l 7t D. Z. / matew Mater I * Rs&~- tesem- Mates Mater * C GeaM a Ec i- and Reoucs * 11ir- aeesi 5.1l Raeseach s8 Ca I t OffUie p_ew Dpt. Comes- Station a e se-. atte a station * C azt L Ittt t@gi&L*t"s * *~~~~~~~o Contea" Repair &POe MateriaL a nydzelsoocat Warheop Howlt- SpL y t r st Company a a D9t..X 1|4t&ts0" ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*a I suy~tateoas a . a 20 euve a ntatieaa yU an Prate tue Mater aseee4 . j a UsLgcc o 3au Ito1 _e ma. at $etiomo SelL cnd Mater C occlvaia O,fti. C V/ Operation ad rI I ( … *_ ..... I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I* aepeadtue 1' lhrnm. Rhegvuf Qlagtegmi: Wch-a Llnga Yaneh Teaat C C&AM Cemty City City Cmmty Cety CmtY a VW NW Wm MUP Wm MD WmD 5 1 e Section DLvLsLon DivisLon Sectio S"ati S. tooti IT TI I 'a TawsahsIVULasge Mates ReacusG SI wMater fees I ~~~~Ia Mates <------1-- Uses s - -.e . . LniLeatos tseehotea edviae toseqiatug u mq*ida?TASao iss4aties subarsea 12 tSeede Jbi_ata gaitt iLiet fw_ st Snk Can.a a LsilLd _ iLseatien Ure Set TSc CaL Is ft ruiaasies cea sel depatmnts have a ctotat comend arg of 256,000 ha. Letgh of *eL &male * "5 be. 14 &lew Sctan caual. 0 od N charges covered by cuaty budget - 106 - Chart 3 NeLm rcosgS onc state PlanningoOs3.aaSLOM.a el Otaniarea ministry of *teAMS man Rlegional, Go" nw reen S ch'l w tc~ReItsourcee Co_n *encie 4eanes lurceu | - Cer4dnte project iOplanen:uion Re_Iteeal Preject Ia LeoSulcOimUt.ss ------Managemet Off C - rie teebecal standards far ______des--- ign. co4stru.giln. O 1 m j -a TATL-&ren & tt 4tSisi * -liaise with LWRM end IDA 116ta Irrigation - Coordinate use of equipent and AreSeleaHaft"gen t transfer Of funds. materLals an Corn. Aaene AseneLs _ Duau'.eneral I Labor _om counties ?ete Project &r'Ana for on-site inpection NanasemenOff L beteog fta-L pament |roJeet Coor"tw ------C a a Ce_ttsee Immbahu. LLvw Wuuan WuleeeqL n county (IMOtVa) CewrVAUS*t e I I r S < ,i ~~~~~~~~~~~~Contractm enran and Pin.. guen.Ico | | Tech' |. | H>4rhF I construction suparvisLon |Co_. |A| Zenels Asenc County Project - coordnate wLth serleulture Neas,eusat Office departent re: proviLsion ef * , _____,,,------. fertLiLsar and other agricuL- I I , IItUral npus | teolect C4ogoints ---- _-___...... I~~~ [e_ale Agiulue I?iI - -T -- T --- '------T------T------T Foresrtry - 107 - Chart 4 NO?3UI 111tATION PUOJCT IIii'gmi* Oreeiaptien for Proecte Maaat 141ntser of*1 | State Pl nnm Coo_lssion _ Corn. Agencie Aseniee *urecu - CoordInate project ipLemwntatton te_Ibgioaal ?roJoct *n L.aguelcouniLes ______m8e OffIc - rcevLw technicaL standards for -_--_---_ _-_----- __ design. constructLon. 0 & M |Project Coordatn - adinSter TA S training comiLttaft - dlabutts t - reviwW equiLpme Lses. 4"u to bLds - LLaisen with WMD and IDA Yinnn Prefecturel - piatui resettt_.nt actLvitiets IYtVna Prefecture - Coordinate use of equipment and and Piog. £con. Tzeh l lWter Pecurce. ttranfer of funds. mteorisls CoA^gnctetleceric ^g clexnd_ E Labor _me counties Power ureau PTofectu & Projec - arrange for on-site inspection ;A AeeMet tff ice before tfiL papmnt ------cootdinatel county resettlement Project Coordlnat ------activts Coueett t GCuan HaLun. LlnSwu | |TongxLn. 2hongnLng County GCornonts ,PMO Functlons Couaty - Contrrct management and construction supervision |Corn.| A.nieL@ |Ae4 nci |County Project - coordinate vigh agriculture | Iaagemwent Office department re* provtsion of ------| fortLlLszr and other agricuL- tural inputs |Project Coordin et ------Comttetes I ------land- | stelnq|nrX| ; 4rc leur -,* _ - 1am _DC- i*s a n5 " cs m s - r- L *~~~* u~~~ ~ ~._ * tta _ -s £ UI S"- _ W * * 4 I * l ; . - - ' S g a .5 * = - . a~~~~ =D 11~~~~~~~.5 15 rin [ng _I j a . . , 1 C _ i 1 ffi= -S - C - .- -3 -' 5 .~ I _ qo C a 5 - - - i !- ______- - - _ - - - - - ~ .------ Isa a ~ U S * I II :…- - - -_- - - - *3 U - S - -…~~~~~~~~------i~~~~~~~~~- i;10q= - -- S is~~~~~~~~~W.:S~~~~~~~~ ;[[1 - - - WMt[4--- :i a a - - -~~~~~~~~~~~------ aS------ -----. ------5 a -- - ------…- - - -r Is - -I ------~~~~I ------~- ~ MAPSECTION IBRD 20286 105° . OO,XtIA L0Q /tltM4fOKF¶ CHINA 4re...-. M~~~~pi ~~~~~~OF NORTHERNIRRIGATION PROJECT 'N;, o NEI MONGGOL - NINGXIA HUI JAP'NA AUTONOMOUSREGIONS -- _ - Project Locotions 1 0 . o. 0 Towns and Cities 0 c ®3 Province Copitols I- Roods h . N KM' '-~ * Railroads ]a P DgRno nULrLrus Greot Woll lo, Hohhot Rivers Dn/ Province Boundaries Deng I _40' - Internotional Boundories For delad seeIBRD 20287 0 Dongsheng r -x *- 0 IfWc< Wuhai\ N MONGGOL .a, .eh .. N iB-D 2028, \ -giin \ ulnNX S HA A X I ~~~ ~~~~~~~GNI XiATo Tcnyuoo n~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ro Lanzhou-' Yan'Jn To tonzhou \, (\> ;uyuan f G A N \5 U X -a Pingliang he j 35' ; A I I, f U ) g Tongchuan K~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Xion Weinan 0 (/ 40 8,0 120 160 KILOMETERS F0 TooHonzhong To Mionyong ° 25 50 75 100MILES 1104 DECEMBER1987 IBRD20287 W TEIR T EQPJ N Q I ?+.> X ) >S jjJ /~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ _ On-farm L~~~~~~~~~~~~oy 1SapedArmos l, a o K ' ' ! 5 \ //12 / | '5 /t Pum,pingStosSon /~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~118Jj 0418N sr / .8 CANAtS.g - be up_radedonder projeot ;\XI- / //t/ / Q ~v i/ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ To /~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~___ //i Po/-Einting; ______\ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~/511 ~~ ~118 M^s 85OIOItwsKAI DRAINS: OUQi LD Et/ proleI -4-Tobeupgradedundr| L1u , ) /15.1 - *L0 Aa,nntT A N Q IDPo/ / - EKinting /J// < / / ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ KILOMETERS ~~ ~ '~'i'~~~~~~Rood. LK 5 0 ssLes 2 2 3 2c as Si t ;"* -' ro,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~---I-Ralrad Dengk~ 1 OL,, . . T weir8 / SonshenggongDiversion <3~~~~~~~~~~~~~~CountySeots Counly Boundoriesns a L s :s4 s l^-So r +vn o.os ,--,u~ 2/ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- rAa ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Boundaries~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Province1111110111 111I1r1Ljlon 1111110111100111111 .,. al-101001 Ucsel no.= InternationalBoundaries -fLL rIllOlOll~~ ~~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~--- OECEM bER 198'~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~OC M E 9 fOT Yh-oo TOO ,o o/.'o *I, ONcO )l .'6o EOL, ~~~~~~.T T Y,Ta,, r,,,, TRE,o,,C^ ,,, Qb. , r *' \ C ~~~~Q,ngtongo,o; ~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~JINYINTAN 1! ~~71H r ~~~~~~~f f ~~~~~~~ GRAGPID LANG - NEI<-'-000500.0 MONGGOL ( ;:00 / s r; /Z/ _ 8 C ' / L Z} ~ *0 1 I \ WUZHONG' "\ \ CX I TNXN 3 -. ZHONGWEI j )L / 0 1'1/- . , J T t N ~ ~G ~~~ XI N )(- T. J.\- < / -4 iGANSU CHINA NORTHERN IRRIGATION PROJECT NINGXIAYINNAN COMPONENT IRRIGATIONAREAS. )W%$il4 E.skg ) <}_l4j Es,tiog - to bh Doie&d oish /r-fo-rm fli (18,300 ho.) o.o- o -°iVio ot (3.700 h..) - N-s (1 4200 ho.) ml0~SONI *A'EA CANAMS To ho oodd -d poo D STo rode protd / tO . A^^IIs "z ho pgo.d O, ___S__ 1,0___ _ 2,0_ 25 M_O_ETE_S_ PUMPINGSTATIONS: 0 5 10 IS 20^IIISwas tY 2 CoMPeo GGototL WolF COOty B-.o3oood Bo.orD TiG .. T.n