Evaluating the Impacts of Power Plant Emissions In

ce en EVALUATING THE IMPACTSer OF nf POWER PLANT EMISSIONSCo IN n MEXICOtio en a ch López Villegas MT,i sTzintzun Cervantes MG, Iniestrair Gomez R, Garibay Bravoon V, Zuk M, Rojas Brachon kL, Fernández m Bremautz A te Direcciónr de Investigación sobrear Calidad del Aire th Ha Instituto Nacional-P de Ecología 9 Distrito Federal,h México isc m ar G Outline e Objectives nc Electricity sector in Mexico re fe Generation n

Emissions Co n n Tuxpan Power Plant io at he Methodology s c ni kir Selection of omodeling domain n rm rte Selection of modeling periodsa th Ha -P 9Dispersion modeling ch Results is m Conclusions ar RecommendationsG Objectives e nc Estimate the contribution of power plantr emissionse to ambient concentrations of air pollutantsfe in Tuxpan, México n Co on n Estimate annual concentrationti of SO2, (NH4)2SOe4, NH NO and primary PMa h 4 3 is 10 irc on nk Scope m te r ar Estimateth Ha the health effects caused-P by emissions from this9 power plant in economich terms in order to conduct isc cost-benefits analysism ar G Current situation electricity generation in Mexico e nc The country’s total re effective installed capacity fe in 2003 was 42,067 MW n Co 67% corresponds to n n thermoelectric power tio e plants a h is irc on nk Energy Demandm Projection te (MOSDEC model)*r ar th Ha -P 9 h isc m ar G

*Source. Institute of Electricity Research Electricity sector emissions ce ) n Share of national emissions (1999-2003 re fe ContribuciónAverage contribution porcentuan l promed fromio de losthe últimos 5 años GHGs: (1999-2003)electricity del sector eléctric (%)o a las emisiones nacionales Co totales 17% de CO 2 n n 11% de N O io PM e 2 t 15% h sa c SO2 ni kir 44% Criteria Pollutants:o n m NOX 44% del SOr2 13% rte NMVOCa 13% deHa NOx P0% th - CH4 15% de PM h N20 0% 9 c 11% CO2 CO is 17% m 0% ar G

Source: National Inventory of Greenhouse Gases in Mexico, National Institute of Ecology General features of the Tuxpan Power plant ce en r Located on the northern coast of the fe Gulf of Mexico in the state of n Veracruz Co Total installed capacity of 2,100 MWn tio en 6 steam generators a h is irc Produces approximatelyon 15,000 nk GWh of electricitym per year te r 3 r Burns 3.7Hamillion m of heavy fuel Pa oil eacthh year h- Sulfur9 content of fuel oil is 3.8%* isc m ar G

* Source: PEMEX, Mexican Petroleum Corporation Emissions from the Tuxpan Power Plant e nc re Emissions* e nf 257,000 ton/year SO2 Co 22,000 ton/year NO x on n 17,000 ton/year PM ti e s10a ch ni kir Emissions estimateso n m te Emissionr factor recommended abyr the EPA-EU Comparedth Ha to emissions calculated-P using Annual 9Operations Information h isc m ar G

* Source: SEMARNAT, Secretariat of the Environment and Natural Resources Stack parameters ce en er nf Co NO PM SO Heigh Diameter Temperatur Velocityn x 10 2 Parameter Emissions Emissions n Emissions t (m) (m) e (K) i(m/s)o e at (tons/yr) (tons/yr)h (tons/yr) is irc n 22-23 k Unit 1 120m 5.5m o425-428k 7,426 n 5,795 89,288 m m/s te r ar Unit 2 thidemHaidem idem idem -P 7,570 5,908 91,031 9 ch Unit 3 idem idem idem is idem 6,342 4,948 76,248 m ar G Modeling domain ce en er nf Co Gulf n nof io Mexico at he is irc on nk • Include populationsm located te within a 60km radiusr around the ar power tplanth Ha -P 9 ch •This area comprises is approximately 791,000 rm inhabitants of both rurala and urban population G Selection modeling periods e Cluster Analysis: Using 52 weeks of meteorological datanc from the Tuxpan station (2001) re fe

0 n 1

Co 39 n tio en

68 a h is irc Height on nk rm rte 11 35

4 a 46 1 17 52 48 Ha P 32 21 h 43

t 5 26 3 10 19

53 - 12 7 9 41 51 13 47 8 16 42 18 024 44 45 23 50 30 49 h 33 27 40 22 36 25 31 38 15 9 24 2 6 14 20 c 29 28 34 is 37 m r GROUP 3 GROUP 1 a GROUP 2 G Cluster Analysis Results e nc re fe Dominant T nRH PB Rainfall Representative GROUP # of Weeks Wspd (m/s) Months (°CoC) (%) (mb) (mm) -ness n November, io n 116December, January 4.8t 20.3 92.1 1017.5 h1e3.3 31 % y february sa c ni kir March, April, may, 223 o 4.8 26.3 88.5n 1012.3 5.4 44 % Junm and July te r ar h HaAugust , September y P 31t 2 3.9 - 26.4 91.8 1013.7 109.7 23 % 9 October h isc m ar G Wind rose analysis for the study area e January April July c October

WIND ROSE PLOT COMME NTS WIND ROSE PLOT COMME NTS WIND ROSE PLOT COMMENTS Station # - TUXPAN, VERACRUZ. (Enero,2001) Station # - TUXPAN, VERACRU Z. (aBRIL, 200 1) Station # - TUXPAN, VERACRUZ (Julio,2001) WIND ROSE PLOT COMMENTS Rosa de vientos construida con datos registrados cada 10 Station # - TUXPAN, VERACRUZ. (Octubre,2001) minutos por la estación n meteoro lógica de T uxpan, Ver. NORTH NORTH NORTH NORTH

PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME PLOT YE AR-DATE-TIME 2001 2001 e2001 PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME Ene 1 - Ene 31 Abr 1 - Abr 30 Jul 1 - Jul 31 2001 Midnight - 11 PM Midnight - 11 PM Midnight - 11 PM Oct 1 - Oct 31 Midnight - 11 PM 25% ORIENTATION 25% ORIENTATION 25% ORIENTATION r 25% ORIENTATION Directi on Wind Speed (m/s) Directi on Wind Speed (m/s) Direction Wind Speed (m/s) 20% (blowing from) 20% (blowing from) 20% (blowing from) Direction Wind Speed (m/s) 20% (blowing from) DISPLAY > 11.06 DISPLAY > 11.06 DISPLAY > 11.06 > 11.06 15% Wind Speed 15% Wind Speed 15% Wind S peed DISPLAY 8.49 - 11.06 8.49 - 11.06 8.49 - 11.06 15% Wind Speed 8.49 - 11.06 UNIT UNIT UNIT 5.40 - 8.49 5.40 - 8.49 e 5.40 - 8.49 10% m/s 10% m/s 10% m/s UNIT 5.40 - 8.49 3.34 - 5.40 3.34 - 5.40 3.34 - 5.40 10% m/s CALM WINDS CALM WINDS CA LM W INDS 3.34 - 5.40 f CALM WINDS 19.71% 14.01% 5% 1.80 - 3.34 5% 1.80 - 3.34 5% 21.69% 1.80 - 3.34 5% 28.00% 1.80 - 3.34 AVG. WIND S PEED 0.51 - 1.80 AVG. WIND S PEED 0.51 - 1.80 AVG. W IND SP EED 0.51 - 1.80 4.62 m /s 5.23 m /s 4.38 m/s AVG. WIND S PEED 0.51 - 1.80 WEST EAS T WEST EAS T WEST EAST 4.70 m /s WEST EAS T DATE DATE DA TE 4/11/02 30/10/02 n 24/10/02 DATE 4/11/02 MODELER MODELER MODELER MODELER

COMPANY NAME COMPANY NAME COMPANY NAME COMPANY NAME Instituto Nacional de Ecología Instituto Nacional de Ecología Instituto Nacional de Ecología

PROJECT/PLOT NO. PROJECT/PLOT NO. PROJECT/PLOT NO. Co PROJECT/PLOT NO.

SOUTH SOUTH SOUTH SOUTH

WRPLOT View 3.5 by Lakes Environmental Software - www.lakes-environmental.com WRPLOT View 3.5 by Lakes Environmental Software - www.lakes-environmental.com WRPLOT View 3.5 by Lakes Environmental Software - www.lakes-environmental.com n WRPLOT View 3.5 by Lakes Environmental Software - www.lakes-nenvironmental.com February May io August November WIND ROSE PLOT COMME NTS e Station # - TUXPAN, VERACRUZ. (Febrero,2001) WIND ROSE PLOT tCOMME NTS WIND ROSE PLOT COMME NTS WIND ROSE PLOT COMMENTS Station # - TUXPAN, VERACRUZ (Mayo,2001) Station # - TUXPAN, VERACRU Z: (Agosto,2001) Station # - TUXPAN, VERACRUZ.(Noviembre, 2001) NORTH h NORTH NORTH NORTH PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME a 2001 Feb 1 - Feb 29 Midnight - 11 PM PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME c PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME 2001 2001 2001 25% ORIENTATION May 1 - May 31 Ago 1 - Ago 31 Nov 1 - Nov 30 Direction Wind Speed (m/s) s Midnight - 11 PM Midnight - 11 PM Midnight - 11 PM 20% (blowing from) 25% ORIENTATION 25% ORIENTATION r 25% ORIENTATION > 11.06 DISPLAY i Direction Wind Speed (m/s) Direction Wind Speed (m/s) Direction Wind Speed (m/s) 15% Wind Speed 20% (blowing from) 20% (blowing from) 20% (blowing from) 8.49 - 11.06 i > 11.06 > 11.06 > 11.06 UNIT DISPLAY DISPLAY DISPLAY 5.40 - 8.49 15% Wind Speed 15% Wind Speed 15% Wind Speed 10% m/s 8.49 - 11.06 8.49 - 11.06 8.49 - 11.06 3.34 - 5.40 UNIT UNIT UNIT CALM WINDS n 5.40 - 8.49 5.40 - 8.49 5.40 - 8.49 17.54% 10% m/s 10% m/s 10% m/s 5% 1.80 - 3.34 k 3.34 - 5.40 3.34 - 5.40 3.34 - 5.40 CALM WINDS CALM WINDS CALM WINDS AVG. WIND S PEED 0.51 - 1.80 4.63 m /s 5% 19.08% 1.80 - 3.34 5% 23.95% 1.80 - 3.34 5% 24.23% 1.80 - 3.34 WEST EAS T

DATE AVG. WIND S PEED 0.51 - 1.80 AVG. WIND S PEED 0.51 - 1.80 AVG. WIND S PEED 0.51 - 1.80 4/11/02 o 4.77 m /s 3.88 m /s 4.55 m /s WEST EAS T WEST nEAS T WEST EAS T MODELER DATE DATE DATE 30/10/02 4/11/02 4/11/02

MODELER MODELER MODELER COMPANY NAME

Instituto Nacional de Ecología m COMPANY NAME COMPANY NAME COMPANY NAME Instituto Nacional de Ecología te Instituto Nacional de Ecología Instituto Nacional de Ecología PROJECT/PLOT NO. r PROJECT/PLOT NO. r PROJECT/PLOT NO. PROJECT/PLOT NO.

SOUTH a WRPLOT View 3.5 by Lakes Environmental Software - www.lakes-environmental.com SOUTH SOUTH SOUTH h Ha WRPLOT View 3.5 by Lakes Environmental Software - www.lakes-environmental.com WRPLPOT View 3.5 by Lakes Environmental Software - www.lakes-environmental.com WRPLOT View 3.5 by Lakes Environmental Software - www.lakes-environmental.com Marcht June - September December WIND ROSE PLOT COMME NTS WIND ROSE PLOT COMME NTS WIND ROSE PLOT COMME NTS WIND ROSE PLOT COMMENTS Station # - TUXPAN, VERACRU Z: (Marzo,2001) Station # - TUXPAN, VERACRU Z.(JUNI O,200 1) h Station # - TUXPAN, VERACRU Z. (Septiembre, 2001) Station # - TUXPAN, VERACRUZ, 8Dic, 2001) NORTH NORTH NORTH NORTH

9 PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME PLOT YE AR-DATE-TIME 2001 2001 c 2001 2001 Mar 1 - Mar 31 Jun 1 - Jun 30 Sep 1 - Sep 30 Dic 1 - Dic 31 Midnight - 11 PM Midnight - 11 PM Midnight - 11 PM Midnight - 11 PM

25% ORIENTATION 25% ORIENTATION 25% ORIENTATION 25% ORIENTATION Direction Wind Speed (m/s) Directi on Wind Speed (m/s) Direction Wind Speed (m/s) Direction Wind Speed (m/s) 20% (blowing from) 20% s(blowing from) 20% (blowing from) 20% (blowing from) DISPLAY > 11.06 DISPLAY > 11.06 DISPLAY > 11.06 DISPLAY > 11.06 15% Wind Speed 15% i Wind Speed 15% Wind Speed 15% Wind S peed 8.49 - 11.06 8.49 - 11.06 8.49 - 11.06 8.49 - 11.06

UNIT UNIT UNIT UNIT 5.40 - 8.49 5.40 - 8.49 5.40 - 8.49 5.40 - 8.49 10% m/s 10% m/s 10% m/s 10% m/s 3.34 - 5.40 3.34 - 5.40 3.34 - 5.40 3.34 - 5.40 CALM WINDS CALM WINDS CALM WINDS CA LM W INDS 14.88% 12.90% 21.97% 5% 1.80 - 3.34 5% 1.80 - 3.34 5% 1.80 - 3.34 5% 25.13% 1.80 - 3.34

AVG. WIND S PEED 0.51 - 1.80 AVG. WIND S PEED 0.51 - 1.80 AVG. WIND S PEED 0.51 - 1.80 AVG. W IND SP EED 0.51 - 1.80 5.27 m /s 4.41 m /s 4.88 m /s 4.75 m/s WEST EAS T WEST m EAS T WEST EAS T WEST EAST DATE DATE DATE DA TE 4/11/02 30/10/02 4/11/02 24/10/02

MODELER r MODELER MODELER MODELER

COMPANY NAME COMPANY NAME COMPANY NAME COMPANY NAME

Instituto Nacional de Ecología a Instituto Nacional de Ecología Instituto Nacional de Ecología Instituto Nacional de Ecología PROJECT/PLOT NO. G PROJECT/PLOT NO. PROJECT/PLOT NO. PROJECT/PLOT NO. SOUTH SOUTH SOUTH SOUTH

Source: National Meteorological Service Dispersion Modeling e CALMET-CALPUFF - MM5 System nc re CALPUFF, a non-steady-state Lagrangiane Gaussian puff model, was run for the selected weeksnf to determine concentrations of primary PM10,Co SO2, and NOx. To model the formation of secondaryn particulate matter species, SO42-, HNO3 andio NO3-, we used the n at he MESOPUFFII mechanism.is irc CALPUFF defaulton assumptions were usednk for wet and dry depositionm parameters as well aste for background concentrationsr of ammonia anda ozone.r Thet hCALMETHa model was used-P to calculate wind fields and9 micrometeorologicalc variables.h The MM5 model outputis was used as an “initial guess field” and then adjustedrm for kinematical effects of terrain, slope flows, anda terrain blocking by CALMET, to produce the wind fields.G Estimating annual concentration e nc We ran the dispersion model for eache er representative week nf The annual average was Cocalculated by weighing the concentration of eachn group by its frequency tio en sa ch ni kir oCannual = ∑ci × fi n rm te Where, ar th Ha -P C 9annual.- Annual averagech concentration c .-Concentration foris that meteorology i m fi .- frequency ofa roccurrence of that meteorology G Results SO2 (June period) ce 2380 Laguna de n Tamiahua e 60 km rMost of the effects 2370 ug/m3 fe occur to the west of 45 km 2360 n Naranjos 76 the power plant 2350 Tamiahua 30 km Co n 64 2340 n Cerro Azul 15 kmtio e Termo 52 h 2330

, km Laguana de

Y c Tampamachos co r M i i 2320 n 40 UT k Tuxpano n 2310 Alamo rm rte 28 2300 a th Ha -P 16 2290 h 9 Cazones c 4 2280 is

2270 m Poza Rica r 620 630 640 650 660 6a70 680 690 700 710 720 730 GUTMX, km Results SO (November period) 2 e nc 2380 Laguna de Moste effects occur Tamiahua r 60 km to the south of the 2370 ugf/me3 n power plant 45 km 2360 Naranjos Co 76 2350 Tamiahua 30 km n n io 64 2340 Cerro Azul t e 15 akm h m Termo 52 c

k 2330 s , iLaguna de ir Y nTampamachoco M k 2320 o n40 UT mTuxpan te 2310 r r Alamo a 28 2300 th Ha -P h 16 2290 9 c Cazones is 4 2280 rm 2270 Poza Rica a 620 630 640 650 660G670 680 690 700 710 720 730 UTMX, km Results SO2 (September period) ce 2380 Laguna de n Tamiahua e 60 km r 2370 ug/m3 fe Important effects to 45 km the south of the 2360 n Naranjos 80 75 power plant 2350 Tamiahua 30 km Co 70 n 65 n 2340 Cerro Azul 15 km io 60 e t 55 m Termo h k 2330 a , Laguna de 50 c Y s Tampamiachoco 45 r M i 2320 n 40 k UT o Tuxpan 35 n 2310 Alamo rm rte30 a 25 2300 Ha P 20 th - 15 2290 h 10 9 Cazones c 5 2280 is m 2270 r Poza Rica a 620 630 640 650 660 670 680 690 700 710 720 730 UTMX,G km Results SO2 (Annual concentrations) ce 2380 Laguna de n Tamiahua e 60r km fe ug/m3 n45 km 45 2360 Naranjos 43 41 Co 39 Tamiahua 30 km n 37 35 2340 o n Cerro Azul i 15 km e33 t h 31 a Termo 29 Laguna de c s 27 i Tampamachoco ir 25 2320 n k 23 UTMY, km o 21 Tuxpan n mAlamo te 19 r r 17 a 15 2300 13 th Ha -P 11 9 h 7 9 cCazones 5 2280 is rm a Poza Rica 620 G 640 660 680 700 720 UTMX, km Results for Primary PM10 (Annual concentrations) ce 2380 Laguna de n Tamiahua e 60r km 2370 fe ug/m3 n45 km 2360 3.1 Naranjos 2.9 2350 Tamiahua Co n 30 km 2.7 2.5 2340 o n Cerro Azul i 15 km t he2.3 a Termo 2.1 2330 s Laguna de c i Tampamachoco ir 1.9 2320 n k 1.7 UTMY, km o n Tuxpan 1.5 2310 mAlamo te r r 1.3 a 1.1 2300 th Ha -P 0.9 2290 h 0.7 9 cCazones 0.5 2280 is rm a Poza Rica 620 G630 640 650 660 670 680 690 700 710 720 UTMX, km Results primary y secondary PM10 ( ((NH4)2SO4, NH4NO3 and HNO3) (annual concentrationce ) Laguna de n 2380 Tamiahua re 60 km 2370 fe ug/m3 n 45 km 2360 Naranjos Co 5.5 2350 Tamiahua n 30 km 5.0 4.n5 2340 io Cerro Azul t 15 km e a h 4.0 2330 Termo c is Laguna de ir 3.5 n Tampamachoco k 3.0 2320

UTMY, km o n m Tuxpan 2.5 2310 r Alamo rte a 2.0 th Ha2300 -P 1.5 h 1.0 9 2290 c is Cazones 0.5 2280 rm a Poza Rica 620 G630 640 650 660 670 680 690 700 710 720 UTMX, km Conclusions ce en er Pollutant dispersion in the arean fis high, due to sea-continent interaction andCo stack height (120 meter). n io n at he is irc The three weekson selected representnk 98% of the meteorologicalm conditions for 2001.te r ar th Ha -P The9 June period showedh the highest isc concentration form all pollutants, followed by November anda rSeptember G Conclusions 2 ce en er Transport of secondary PM (sulfates)nf extends beyond domain boundariesCo n io n at he Pollutants are dispersedis mainly to theirc south and on nk west of them power plant. te r ar th Ha -P The9 population in the townh of Tuxpan is the most isc affected community.m ar G Recommendations for future analysis ce en er Expansion of the modeling domainnf Simulation over an entireCo year on n ti e Incorporation of othera relevant sourcesch in the modeling area is ir on nk Comparisonm with air quality measurementste r ar fromth aHa field campaign -P 9 ch Estimation of the healthis effects m ar G Health effects (preliminary results) e nc re Emissions from the power plant could resultfe in approximately 30 deaths annually (90% CI: 10 - 56). n Co n After applying the appropriateio value of statistical life forn the region, we find the total asocialt annual cost of the hpowere plant emissions to be approximatelyis 25 million dollarsirc on nk Secondary particulatem formation contributeste approximately 70% to the mortalityr impacts, mosta ofr which comes from secondaryth Ha sulfate formation (62%-P of total impacts). 9 ch This is largely due to thei shigh S02 emissions and the preference of ammoniumrm to react with sulfate over nitrate, consistent with resultsa from similar analyses (Levy and Spengler, 2002).G Thank you for your attention ce en [email protected] er nf Instituto Nacional dCoe Ecología n INE / SEMARNATio n at he is irc Direcciónon General de nk Investigaciónm sobre la te Contaminaciónr Urbana,ar th HaRegional y Global-P. 9 h isc http://www.ine.gob.mxm ar G