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Regional Early Warning Bulletin for the 2018/19

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Regional Early Warning Bulletin for the 2018/19 SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) Early Warning Bulletin on the 2018/19 Southern Africa Rainfall Season August 2018 SADC CSC Early Warning Bulletin – August 2018 Table of Contents Executive summary ............................................................................................................................... 3 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 4 2. Performance of the 2017/2018 rainfall season ................................................................................ 4 3. The 2018-2019 regional seasonal climate forecast ........................................................................ 5 4. Changes from the previous outlook ................................................................................................ 6 5. Recommended planning and mitigation measures .......................................................................... 6 5.1 Agriculture, Food Security and Livestock..................................................................................... 6 5.2 Water and Energy ....................................................................................................................... 7 5.3 Health ......................................................................................................................................... 9 5.4 Disaster risk reduction and management .................................................................................. 10 5.5 Early warning and Conflict ......................................................................................................... 12 6. Conclusions .................................................................................................................................. 13 For more details, contact SADC CSC in Gaborone, Botswana. Tel: +267 395 1863; E-mail: [email protected]. 2 SADC CSC Early Warning Bulletin – August 2018 Executive summary Many SADC Member States recorded normal to above-normal rainfall during the 2017/18 rainfall season, as predicted by the SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) in August 2017 at the 21st Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-21). In contrast, the approaching October 2018 - March 2019 rainfall season is forecasted to be normal to below-normal throughout the season over most of the region. During SARCOF-22, which took place in Lusaka, Zambia in August 2018, the community of climate information users discussed and formulated mitigation measures for the sectors of Agriculture and Food Security; Water and Energy; Livestock; Disaster Risk Management; Health; and Early Warning and Conflict. The forecast presents a concern for agriculture. Districts affected by dry conditions will require the optimal use of available resources to safeguard agricultural production. Recommendations include: • Diversify crop production with drought- and disease-tolerant crops; early maturing crops; and high-yield varieties; • Make available agricultural inputs to farmers before the onset of the rains; • Employ water conservation and harvesting techniques for improved accessibility and availability; • Adopt staggered planting dates for crops; • Increase investment in irrigation; and • Employ post-harvest techniques to avoid loses. The sector(s) of Water and Energy should see normal to below-normal river flows. Recommended mitigation measures include: • Prioritize the charging of depleted reservoirs; • Undertake a simulation exercise to test water allocation guidelines; • Develop water management scenarios; and • Continue with the importation of power and expedite the completion of internal power projects. Regarding Disaster risk reduction (DRR), the worse-case scenario will be uneven rainfall with sudden heavy rains that can lead to flooding, displacement, destruction of property and infrastructure, and loss of life. In such a situation, access to basic social services could be disrupted, including to schools, health facilities and markets. Affected areas may also face outbreaks of water- and vector-borne diseases. The key recommendation is that prevention is better than cure. It also contributes to resilience-building. Planning for extreme events is an essential way forward for all SADC Member States to implement mitigation and adaptation measures. 3 SADC CSC Early Warning Bulletin – August 2018 1. Introduction This report provides guidance on how the region can best employ the analysis of SARCOF-22, held in Lusaka, Zambia, from 22 - 24 August 2018. Most specifically, how to use the October 2018 - March 2019 regional seasonal forecast in decision-making. SARCOF-22 was hosted by the Meteorological Services of Zambia. Support was provided by Government of the Republic of Zambia, in collaboration with the SADC Secretariat, African Development Bank and other partners. Climate scientists considered oceanic and atmospheric factors that influence the climate of the SADC region. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to shift from a neutral to a warm phase this rainfall season, a phenomenon known as El Niño. The community of climate information users that participated in SARCOF-22 discussed the potential implications of the consensus climate outlook for the sectors of Water and Energy; Agriculture, Food Security and Livestock; Health; Disaster Risk Management; and Early Warning and Conflict. Users also recommended sector-specific mitigation measures. The key recommendation is that prevention is better than cure. Prevention also contributes to resilience- building. The anticipated normal to below-normal rainfall may cause a reduction in agricultural production. This and other threats must be mitigated to alleviate the suffering of affected populations. Planning for extreme weather events is an essential way forward for all SADC Member States in mitigation and adaptation. 2. Performance of the 2017/2018 rainfall season Fig.1: Rainfall as % of average, Overall, the SADC region received normal rainfall 01 Oct 2017 – 30 Apr 2018 during the first half of the last rainfall season (October – December 2017). However, parts of Namibia, western South Africa and northern DRC received below-normal rainfall. Pockets of Angola, Zambia and Mozambique, as well as most of Madagascar, experienced above-normal rainfall. An extended dry spell from late December 2017 to late January 2018 over central parts of the region was associated with extremely high temperatures. Rains resumed in late January, with the region receiving heavy rainfall with associated floods and flash floods in Zambia, northern Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Eswatini and Lesotho in February and March 2018. 4 SADC CSC Early Warning Bulletin – August 2018 Fig. 2: Comparison between predicted Tropical Cyclone Ava hit Madagascar in early January and observed rainfall, Jan – Feb 2018 2018, causing fatalities, displacement, infrastructure damage and significant crop losses. Northern Mozambique was also affected by heavy rainfall in January. In March, Madagascar was hit again, this time by Severe Tropical Storm Eliakim, while Tropical Cyclone Dumazile affected Mauritius and La Réunion. Localized floods also caused displacement and infrastructure damage in Botswana, Malawi, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. During SARCOF-21 in August 2017, the SADC CSC predicted normal to above-normal rainfall conditions for the region. This proved consistent with observed rainfall. The verification map (Fig. 2) shows the accuracy of the forecast. The blue indicates where the forecast was consistent with observed conditions (the highest probability) and the green indicates where countries observed either below-normal or above-normal rainfall conditions, according to the forecast (the second highest probability). Red shows where the forecast did not perform well and issued false alarms. The forecasts were accurate in predicting normal to above-normal rainfall. 3. The 2018-2019 regional seasonal climate forecast Fig. 3: Rainfall outlook, Oct - Dec 2018 Fig. 4: Rainfall outlook, Jan - Mar 2019 The bulk of the SADC region is expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for most of the period October 2018 - March 2019 (see figures 3 and 4). However, the central belt of the region encompassing Angola, northern Zambia, northern Malawi, southern Tanzania, and northern Mozambique, the islands 5 SADC CSC Early Warning Bulletin – August 2018 states of Mauritius and Seychelles, and eastern Madagascar, are more likely to receive normal to above- normal rainfall for the duration of the season. (The term “normal” should be interpreted in the context of each area’s typical rainfall pattern.) Some areas will move from below-normal rains in October - December 2018 to above-normal rainfall conditions in January – March 2019 and vice versa. This will be observed over Angola, southern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), northern Namibia and western Zambia. 4. Changes from the previous outlook During the previous rainfall season, the SADC region received normal rainfall for the period October – December 2017 and normal to above-normal rainfall for January – March 2018. In contrast, the forecast this season is for normal to below-normal rainfall over the southern part of the region and normal to above-normal rainfall over the central parts. However, there remains a possibility of early-onset rains, false starts to the season and prolonged dry spell, which could disturb the temporal and spatial distribution of rains. 5. Recommended planning and mitigation
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