Tom Reifer The “Arab 1848”: Reflections on US Policy & the Power of Nonviolencei For Eqbal Ahmad February 23, 2011 “In a world built on violence, one must be a revolutionary before one can be a pacifist… human beings acquiesce all too easily in evil conditions; they rebel far too little and too seldom…Those who can bring themselves to renounce wealth, position and power accruing from a social system based on violence and putting a premium on acquisitiveness, and to identify themselves in some real fashion with the struggle of the masses toward the light, may help in a measure-more, doubtless, by life than by words—to devise a more excellent way, a technique of social progress less crude, brutal, costly and slow than mankind [sic] has yet evolved.”ii A.J. Muste, nonviolent revolutionary The interconnected wave of revolutions of late be shaped by a demographic and technological wave 2010 and early 2011 that have swept the Arab world that the U.S. and its allies haven’t learned to control have invited many comparisons, with at least one (emphasis added).” perceptive analyst labeling them the “Arab 1848” (Ali, 2011; see also Sperber, 2005). This analogy is of Similarly, in a revealing February 17, 2010 interview, special interest, as some time ago, Giovanni Arrighi, CBS journalist Katie Couric asked Richard Haass, Terence Hopkins and Immanuel Wallerstein (1989, former head of Policy Planning in the US Department of 1992), in their landmark Antisystemic Movements, State under President Bush from 2001 to 2003, and argued that there had been only two world revolutions, currently President of the Council on Foreign Relations, 1848 and 1968, with the subsequent revolutions of one of the most important US Establishment think 1989 seen as a continuation of 1968. How then, might tanks, “How great a threat are these latest protests to we see what Immanuel Wallerstein (2011) has called the United States?”; Haass replied, “They are, “the Second Arab Revolt” taking place today? One particularly the one in Bahrain; this, for really half a perspective was provided by the Wall Street Journal, century has been a centerpiece of the US naval the main paper of the US business establishment. In a presence in a critical part of the world because of the front page article entitled, “A Pivotal Moment for energy resources,” going on to note that the “stakes America,” journalist Gerald F. Seib (2/12-13/11) started [are] great” and emphasizing that the US was off by noting that “The fall of the Egyptian President particularly concerned about the stability of the Saudi Hosni Mubarak marks a historic shift in the Middle East, regime. Indeed, according to a recent story in the New away from the power structure America has leaned on York Times (2/19/11) “…the Saudis are closely for the past three decades and toward a new one still watching American diplomatic gestures toward Bahrain. Any wavering of American support for Bahrain’s Sunni demands of the protesters for the removal of Mubarak monarchy, analysts say, would provoke a deep sense of and a transition to democracy and the rule of law. Soon betrayal, and could create an unprecedented rift in a thereafter, when some of the signatories were invited to partnership with the United States that has been a pillar a meeting at the White House, many saw reason for of Saudi policy since 1945.” hope. Indeed, as the protests in Egypt intensified in early February 2011, many were hopeful too when Of particular concern is that Bahrain has a Sunni President Obama expressed solidarity with the minority ruling over a Shia majority, thereby posing a demands of the Egyptian people for democracy and challenge to Saudi Arabia, a Sunni majority state, albeit social justice. But soon enough, the administration with a long oppressed Shiite majority population in its made clear publicly through its emissary Frank Wisner Eastern Province just adjacent to Bahrain, and where that they were casting their lot in with President much of its massive reserves of oil are located. An Mubarak, while the head of Egypt’s dreaded security added aspect of geopolitical intrigue and rivalry here forces, and recently appointed Egyptian Vice President has been the threat posed to the Saudi regime by the Omar Sulieman waited in the wings. The Iranian revolution with its Shiite majority. Iran has long administration subsequently distanced itself from been locked in a battle with the US and America’s Wisner – almost declared a persona non-grata – but Sunni allies in the region. Indeed, the desire to combat then promptly indicated that they basically agreed with Shiite radicalism and the influence of Iran was one everything he said. And as Phyllis Bennis (2/19/11) factor in the long-time support of the US, Saudis, Egypt noted, Robert Fisk’s (1/7/11), reporting from Cairo soon and their allies for the Islamic mujahadeen fighting the thereafter revealed that Wisner’s lobbying firm has long Soviets in response to the USSR’s invasion of represented the Egyptian dictator and his regime, a fact Afghanistan. This process of support for radical Islamic not lost on the Egyptian and Arab masses. fundamentalists put wind in the sails of the global jihad, which subsequently turned against the United States, Indeed, to many, it seemed that the appointment of the as evidenced in the terrorist attacks of September 11, head of the infamous security forces, Omar Sulieman, 2001 (see Lubeck & Reifer, 2004). as Vice President, would be a happy and quite suitable alternative to Mubarak for the Obama administration, In fact, Saudi Arabia is one of the region’s most radical especially as he was affectionately known as the CIA’s fundamentalist regimes while simultaneously one of man in Cairo. And yet, it appeared that the personal America’s closest allies, and home to the world’s nature of the dictatorship had bound many of Egypt’s greatest reserves of oil. And indeed, one way to look at powerful institutions to President Mubarak, making the current Arab Revolt is that it is animated by a desire them reluctant to usher in his immediate departure. Yet for freedom and justice that pushes up against the in the end the power of the people overwhelmed the structure of power in the Arab World. This structure of opposition and Mubarak was forced from power. The power is in many instances supported by outside power moment has great significance not only for the Egyptian brokers, most notably the US, which seek to the control and Arab peoples but also for the global struggle for the peoples and resources of the Arab Middle East and peace, democracy and social justice. North Africa (see Henry & Springborg, 2010; see Chomsky, 1991). Egypt has long been a critical country in the Arab and Islamic worlds, both culturally and politically, and the Yet US policy has not gone forward without challenges, military has long been a central institution of Egypt’s even within the US, however mild. Soon after the various authoritarian governments (Abdel-Malek, 1968, beginning of the Egyptian protests, many progressive 1989; CUP, 2008). Despite the structure of power US academics signed an open letter to President arrayed against them, activists in Egypt and their Obama, calling on the administration to support the supporters throughout the Arab world and beyond, squarely confronted the power of the regime and their surprisingly perhaps, since many of the guns, like the foreign supporters, notably its lead ally, the US. tear gas canisters fired at the protestors across the Middle East, are inscribed, “Made in the USA.” Not Despite some commentary about the unexpectedness exactly the best export for democracy promotion of Egypt’s revolution, many analysts have been abroad, one might think. But for decades now, the US predicting for some time the possibility of more unrest has been the Mubarak dictatorship’s strongest in Egypt and throughout the Arab world, based on supporter, having funneled some $62 billion in military important changes in their social structure combined and economic aid to Egypt’s authoritarian government with the continued humiliations of authoritarian rule. by the end of 2006, making it the second largest Another critical aspect in the social explosions has recipient of US foreign aid in the world after Israel, with been an ever widening divide between the haves and an average of over 2 billion dollars in aid going to the have-nots in the so-called neoliberal era. For example, country annually according to leading scholars and the Linda Herrera’s (2010: 128) “Young Egyptians' Quest Congressional Research Service (Rutherford, 2008: 5). for Jobs and Justice," in Being Young and Muslim, The Pentagon and CIA have incredibly close notes that: relationships with their counterparts in Egypt, including via America’s extraordinary rendition programs, Arab States that are characterized by a youth bulge contain whereby suspects in the so-called war on terror – often among the highest regional average of young people in the innocent – are kidnapped by the CIA and sent to Egypt world, with 65% of the population younger than 25 years old, to be tortured, a fact not lost on the Egyptians who 20% of whom are in the 15- to 24-year age bracket. The have suffered years of torture under Mubarak (see Middle East and North Africa region holds the inauspicious Cohn, 2011). distinction of being the fastest growing labor force, which, since the 1990s, has 25% youth unemployment--the highest regional average and almost double the global average, Indeed, the demonstrations in Egypt have seen the which is 14%. In the coming decade, some 34 million jobs publication of hidden truths in the US press, for the first need to be created in the region to absorb the emerging labor time in recent memory.