Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713

UNDERSTANDING KENYA’S ELECTORAL MANAGEMENT ARCHITECTURAL CONTEXT: SURVIVING BOTH THE STATE AND A VOLATILE REGION

Thomas Otieno Juma1

1Lecturer of Political Science and International Relations, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Department of Social Sciences and Development Studies, Catholic University of Eastern Africa (CUEA), Nairobi – Kenya; [email protected]

ABSTRACT The article is an attempt to understand Kenya’s electoral management architectural context asks fundamental questions; does elections management architectural context have the ability to survive a state or group of states? How does election management architecture help states function in volatile regions? While answering these, the study asserts; in a deepening regionalism, the security effects of one state extend threats to other communities of states around it/her. In a critical view from the prism of the International Relations (IR) lens, the survival of one state has a spiral survival effect on the other states in such a locality. This causes states to have joint and various effects relationships. The nature of regional security among neighboring states faces paradigmatic limitations common to their adjacency. Security in the era of regionalization is symbiotic thus poor electoral management naturally has an impact on the existing peace and security in a regional network of states. This study discussed Kenya’s electoral management architecture from the constitutional edicts point of view. This encompassed strengths and weaknesses observed and highlight some supportive Acts of law found necessary to the study. It moved further to elaborate on the electoral management architecture context found relevant to the study. Using relevant themes, the study analyzes the region in light of the questions posed and written literature, the research justifiably concludes that indeed EM architectural context has a necessary role in volatile regions.

Keywords: Electoral Achitecture, Kenya’s Election, Volatile Region, Regionalization

1 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713

A. Introduction serious implications for security. Electoral The history of elections in Kenya Management among states sharing has been full of challenges. The political common borders has far-reaching impacts power games sought to control all political than being an individual country's affair. processes almost immediately after These include refugee influx due to forced independence. This reflects suggestion by migrations, cross border economic losses, Cassandra R. Veney and Paul Tiyambe security stalemates between neighboring Zeleza (2013) and Paul Tiyambe Zeleza states, a proliferation of arms, and the (2009) that Kenya emerged out of possibility of the emergence of anti- colonialism in 1963, after a prolonged government rebel groups. In a major liberation struggle, with a political perspective, it questions the security of the economy marked by the existence of an region. The Kenyan electoral management authoritarian state, uneven regional of 2007 degenerated the once ‘perceived development, deep social cleavages, and an peaceful’ country into a near pariah state intolerant political culture sustained by which threatened the socio-eco-political deep historical memories of grievance and mainstay of the East African region and injustice. Nationalist ideology both masked adjacent states. and reinforced the inherited political Kenya’s 2007 electoral management deformities of the colonial state in so far as was unique towards regional security in it mobilized the colonized for freedom several ways compared to previous ones. while simultaneously seeking to Both internally and externally the homogenize them in the inflexible ideology uniqueness had some effects. Internally, it of nation-building. attracted a number of key personalities Election management bodies among the Kenyan political elites as around the world continue to face contestants than before, the political space challenging circumstances, and there will in the country had greatly experienced be a continued need for organizations like freedoms required of democracies, IFES to do research, spread best practices, breakage in the ruling factions that brought and facilitate dialogues. All of this is key to the second liberation made it a very advancing better elections around the contestable election, and it pitted major world (Lemargie, 2017). Most elections in candidates for the presidential seat who Kenya since the first multi-party elections come from the two dominant Kenyan in 1992 have experienced management ethnic communities. Again, externally, the problems. The gravest occurrence heightened move towards regional emanating from electoral management integration which Kenya has always which generated the disputed presidential championed partly because of her pseudo- elections in December 2007 made the economic imperialism (Munene, 2017) in majority of Kenyans flee their homes to an the region made the 2007 electoral extent of crossing regional borders and a management a real regional security reported figure of about 1,300 were killed problem. This study endeavored to find out (Crisis Group Africa Report, 2008). the effects of electoral management on Additionally, the impact extended to the Kenya’s neighbors. The intrastate neighboring states in East Africa with 2 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 weakness witnessed in this election in B. Methods Kenya confirms neo-liberalism's This is a study arising from field proposition of interdependency of which research. It is a series of some of the security is part. outcomes of an earlier Ph.D. research. The The existing patterns of conflict compilations herein comprise what diverse across the borders and within East African scholars posit on the subject which was Countries cannot be better described if not analyzed thematically and content-wise in within the confines of Regional Security the process of literature review. The Complex (RSC) to solicit new thinking of assertions were supported by data securitization not used before. In this gathered from the field which forms a region especially that has had external series of publications from the overall invasions from slavery, to colonialism study. which further dispersed African nations into different countries and further C. Result and Discussion splitting nations into multi-national states Kenya’s Electoral Management and Constitutional Foundations and seeking their harmony. Under Kenya’s constitution, The effects of Kenya’s 2007 contained in the Elections Regulations electoral management on Kenya’s 2012, the types of elections are; General neighbors is a significant step towards both election, Referenda, and By-Elections (the regional policies and state policies. This is latter results when an elective seat falls/or very important to immediate states; is presumed vacant in accordance with the Tanzania, Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, constitution). Broadly again it means Somalia, and by extension to Rwanda and Presidential and Other elections (where Burundi. These effects range from other is in reference to elective positions economic to social which turn often to apart from Presidential). Electoral security/insecurity dynamics. Whereas the management in Kenya is a democratically effects differ from landlocked countries as mandated process and activity by the opposed to Countries accessible to the constitution. Right from the preamble, the Indian Ocean such as Somalia and Constitution of Kenya 2010 expresses itself Tanzania, the issue of traditional to the imperative of elections “we the membership to East African Community people of Kenya - … RECOGNISING the compounds more effects. In addition, the aspirations of all Kenyans for a government issue of economic dependency on Kenyan based on the essential values of human strong industrial base and hitherto hosting rights, equality, freedom, democracy, social and playing host to regional peace justice, and the rule of law”. For electoral initiatives to countries such as Sudan/ management to reach the verge of South Sudan and Somalia. This built insecurity as witnessed in the aftermaths of paradigms on stability issues emanating the 2007 election, the core issues in the from piracy and Al-Shabaab and its stated preamble were totally disregarded. likelihood spillover.

3 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713

The body manning elections, the Kenya’s elections. Though the Political manner in which elections ought to be Parties Act (Act No. 11 of 2011) provides conducted, and the people to conduct the that every registered political party shall elections are all envisaged in this deposit their party Constitution, important supreme law. In chapter seven membership lists together with nomination “representation of the people” Part two, rule with the Registrar Political Parties Article 88 sub-article 1; “there is during the registration process. Making a established the Independent Electoral and leap backward, Articles 86 – makes a Boundaries Commission” (also known as mention of voting and system used while IEBC), sub-article two and three espouse Article 87 points to the timely settling of on the people authorized to conduct the electoral disputes. It is the supposition of business of electoral management in the this research that the disputes imagined commission, while sub-article four here are local with no cross border effects elaborates the scope of the commission as but with the understanding since 2007 to kinds of elections and referenda. election that electoral conflicts cannot be Authoritatively, sub-article five gives an localized, the legislative approaches should emphatic pointer to the performance of think beyond internal mechanisms for electoral functions (management) under dispute resolution. A very disparaging gap the powers of the constitution and national in this chapter of the constitution in the legislations. With this statement, certain absence of outright mention of the thoughts are derived; is the constitution electoral system applicable in the Kenyan and the national legislations always jurisdiction whereas it opts to characterize harmonious? And two, are the national the principles the system ought to legislation enacted or changed with subscribe to. This omission could be electoral timelines in mind? Three, do the pointing to how many governments have legislations foresee their effects stretching taken elections and their outcomes, hither to shake the security fabrics of the state or before they have not reminiscence they are guided by temporal parochial insecurity that shakes the states in eco- political interests? To contain EM socio-political dimensions as seen this dynamics, the conflicting variables in the century. two must address underlying national Despite the above, the 2007 election challenges present and unforeseen. was conducted by the Commission that Articles 89, 90, 91, and 92 loosely preceded the IEBC, the Electoral discuss the issues of delimitation, Commission of Kenya (ECK). The existence allocation of party-list seats, requirements of ECK was presumed to be the cause of the for political parties, and legislation on mismanagement of the Presidential political parties in an idealistic sense. elections in Kenya then. This is true at the Whereas the first two (Art. 89 and 90) are same time lacks some merit, academically implicit to IEBC, the latter two are proven from this research. Some of the seemingly implied to the same body (EMB) electoral management dynamics were yet they play very key roles in the electoral internal to the EMB managers while quite a management architecture and dynamics in

4 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 number were external to the political internationally for the successful conduct architecture of the country. of the 2002 elections and the 2005 A former commissioner (Kibira, referendum on the Constitution. 2013) with the defunct Electoral The constitutional gaps and Commission of Kenya has exonerated electoral management hurdles thereafter Samuel Kivuitu from blame over the 2007 instigated a raft of measures towards bungled presidential elections. Jack Tumwa revamping electoral management body said the team that conducted the elections fronted by political class, recommendation was "discredited by public perception, and from Krieglar report, African Eminent lacked the prerequisite finances and personalities recommendations, and other independence to discharge its mandate". actors. These led to the formation of the “The truth of the matter is that the law Grand National Coalition government and required Kivuitu to release the results ultimate constitutional review which was within the stipulated time, after consummated by the promulgation of the ascertaining that the remaining votes Constitution of Kenya 2010. The process of would not make any difference,” Tumwa settling the EMB institutional and said. “Prior to the elections, he had pointed operational dynamics was followed by the out problems in some parts of the country,” disbandment of ECK. Vidija (2018) records, he said, adding that the commission’s after the ECK, came to the IIEC which was proposal for consultations amongst parties set up on May 7, 2009. The commissioners fell on deaf ear. Vidija (2018) of Star-Times were sworn in on May 11 that year with reported that the then Chairman of ECK Issack Hassan as the Chairman. Kivuitu during an interview said with a lot Commissioners included Simiyu Wasike, of conviction that tribalism was the Winnie Guchu, Yusuf Nzibo, Davis Chirchir, primary inspiration for the contest Douglas Mwashigadi, Hamara Ibrahim between Raila and Kibaki. “We know the Adan, Ken Nyaundi and Tiyah Galgalo. two parallels involved in this election but Hassan led the IIEC's transition into the we can’t say [anything]," he said and Independent Electoral and Boundaries defended himself by saying violence was Commission and with it more complaints inevitable regardless of who the winner about poorly managed elections. The would be. Kivuitu was indicted heavily in transitioning of IIEC came to a climax with the court of public opinion but he hangs on the formation of IEBC in 2011 through the to his job. “Never! I cannot resign [because] Independent Electoral and Boundaries I will be seen as a coward, which I’m not," Commission Act 2011. he told reporters. “I was the server, not the cook - if at all there was any cooking. If I’m Kenya’s Electoral Management given orders to serve you an eagle and you Architectural Context Good electoral management is what expected a chicken, then I’m not a party to all political class would need for the the confusion. I only serve what I am thriving of democracy but conversely offered - the rest are just stories." Prior deterioration of democracy when in crisis Kivuitu had earned a good reputation renews itself in Tyra-systemocracy 5 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713

(application of tyranny using weak systems counting. All said that the gravest cheating and institutions of governance). The spark occurred in that room, where for Kenya's firestorm of ethnic violence commissioners all appointed by Kibaki was lit inside a cavernous meeting hall in compiled returns before announcing them downtown Nairobi, where election officials to the public. The long-serving chairman of over four days doctored vote counts, Kenya's election commission played an dismissed eye-popping irregularities, and active role in the deception, the observers thwarted monitoring by independent said. The Electoral Commission of Kenya, observers to deliver a razor-thin victory to an independent body whose members are President Mwai Kibaki. Observers who appointed by the president was a largely were allowed into the vote-tallying center different commission. As members faced on Dec. 29-30, hours before the results term limits in the months before the vote, were announced, said there was so much Kibaki facing the stiffest presidential systematic fraud by Kenya's government- challenge ever in Kenya packed the 22- appointed election commission that it's person body with 17 new commissioners. impossible to know who really won. The All were considered Kibaki allies, and none extent of the commission's deceptions has had ever run an election. "These people faded into the background as more than were criminals," said Ben Sihanya, a 800 Kenyans have been killed in ethnic Stanford-educated constitutional law clashes and police crackdowns. Official professor who also observed the tallying. results gave Kibaki an edge of 231,728 Kenya’s 2007 election in votes, or 2 percent, out of about 10 million perspectives reveal dynamics surrounding casts. Initial results of an exit poll by the how and what of the electoral management U.S.-funded International Republican (actions of EMBs and political class), Institute found that rival Raila Odinga had operations carried by ECK, Electoral won by an 8 percent margin. The IRI says it system, Party contenders, Electoral will not release the poll until it has campaign, Election results, and Voting assessed the validity of the methodology Behaviour. The ECK’s inability to maintain (McClatchy, 2008). Despite the grave's confidence in the vote produced happenings as noted by observers, the widespread protest and violence magnified impunity revealed further a trend in the dynamics (Human Rights Watch, 2008) electoral management dynamism that detrimentally. seemed to have rooted in Kenya. The On 27 December 2007, Kenyan engrained Tyra-systemocracy works voters participated in the fourth elections within institutions led by compromised since the re-introduction of multi-party characters and where legislative loopholes politics in 1991, casting ballots for the thrive for the advantage of regimes seeking president and members of parliament re-election. Little violence occurred on election day, McClatchy further sadly notes how and observers considered the voting election officials allowed five accredited process well-organized. However, delay by Kenyan observers into the tallying center the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) in Nairobi only in the final phase of vote- in announcing the results incited serious

6 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 unrest in the country (Bengali 2008). emergence of ODM. Given the fracturing of Independent analyses and the work of the NARC and the embryonic nature of PNU, Independent Review Commission to study ODM, and ODM-K, the National Assembly the election revealed deep flaws in the vote election featured a shifting set of parties tally process, undermining the credibility and candidates. The presidential campaign of the ECK’s official results (Kanyinga et al, centered heavily on Kibaki’s performance. 2008). The NARC coalition, however, His 2002 victory had generated such disintegrated over the issue of tremendous ‘‘euphoria’’ that Kenyans constitutional revision. The draft of the registered some of the highest support for new constitution, produced at the Bomas democracy in the Afro barometer survey in Convention, hewed closely to the promises 2003 (2004). Kimenyi and Shugart (2008) made by Kibaki ahead of the 2002 election. assert, the constitutional revision also But Kibaki erased the curtailment of remained important to many voters. The presidential powers in revisions of the Kibaki version of the constitution draft, which was presented to voters in a confirmed many voters’ fears that the 2005 referendum Kimenyi and Shugart government remained too strong and (2008). centralized. Again according to Anderson, Electoral Commission of Kenya central government power also (2005) Kibaki’s reversal led to Odinga, undergirded the issue of majimbo (Swahili Musyoka, and others defecting from NARC for ‘regions’), which implied the devolution and forming the Orange Democratic of political responsibilities to lower levels Movement (ODM). ODM campaigned of government (Anderson, 2005). In its vigorously against Kibaki’s version of the analysis of the situation, European Union constitution, which was rejected 58–42%. (2008) observed that International and Kenya’s electoral rules set three domestic observers were near-unanimous requirements to be elected president. A that vote counting in the 2007 elections candidate must win the most votes in a was flawed. Gibson and Long (2009) were nation-wide count, and secure at least 25% additionally of the view Kibaki benefited of the vote in five of any eight provinces. from producing additional votes in seven The presidential victor must also win the provinces while losing votes in one; Odinga parliamentary seat in their own benefited from additional votes in one constituency. Kenya’s National Assembly is province and lost in seven. If we aggregate chosen by a first-past-the-post system in these net differences across provinces, we 210 single-member constituencies. In find that Kibaki benefited from 355,843 addition to these elected seats, 12 MPs are extra votes in the official tally when allocated to parties in proportion to their compared to the exit poll, while Odinga lost elected seat total, along with two ex-officio 57,951 votes, for a total of 413,794. members (Gibson and Long, 2009) According to Brown (2003) and Kiage et al point that the political Fischer (2002) elections provide a landscape shifted ahead of the 2007 legitimate and legal context in which election with the demise of NARC and the citizens can express their opinions and

7 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 views. To Reilly (2002) and Reilly (2008), it scholarship on ethnicity in Kenya. For is a means towards democracy and many decades (Ajulu, 2002) is of the view democratic governance. Elections are that, access to the national cake in Kenya viewed in the public discourse as the first has been through ethnic balancing, even if step towards the developing of democratic not well balanced, but the intention has institutions and consolidating the been visible. Using these multiparty democratization process (Kuar 1998:7). elections - 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007, I Jeff Fischer (2002) adopts an demonstrate how tensions have been argument that it is not the electoral process precipitated by ethnic elites under various per se that triggers violence, but the pretences. breakdown of this process. Fischer does Reaffirming the same thought line, not contest the crucial role that elections (Murunga and Nasong’o, 2007) suggest, have in the democratization process. He …the prospects for democracy in Kenya are says, “it is difficult to identify any electoral contingent, to a large extent, upon surrogate that has brought about non- restructuring the institutions of conflictive transitions of power with the governance and concomitantly devolving same consistency” (2002:2) - but believes power from the presidency. What comes to that violence is induced by unethical fore is that electoral politics and by and actions that occur during the election cycle large electoral management suffice certain and which contribute to the breakdown of key dynamics that are just unique to Kenya. the electoral process. In understanding These include; party politics, ethnic Fischer, the issue about surrogates tells the mobilizations, the role of ethnic elites, non- nature of systems, methods, and responsive institutions of governance, and technologies which are often borrowed deep centralization of power under the from mature democracies and mostly in presidency has been causative factors to the eleventh hour. It is therefore almost the perennial electoral conflicts which lead certain that incompatibilities are bound to often to security locally and beyond take place out of these in electoral matters. national borders. It may be right to suggest that surrogate Previous literature on elections and electoral systems will likely lead to conflict – both in the political science, and conflicts. peace and conflict research fields according While trying to understand to Höglund, Jarstad, and Söderberg Kovacs presidential politics in Kenya, one has to (2009) were the first to systematically put examine the nature of party and ethnic together conflict-generating factors in a politics (Lonsdale, 1994). Adar (1998) and conceptual framework. The authors Okoth and Ogot (2000) emphasize that it is categorized these factors into three through understanding of the place of clusters related to the actors who ethnicity and party politics in Kenya that participate in the electoral process, the we can understand the history of electoral institutions, and the stake of presidential politics in the country. Ethnic elections. Conflict-generating factors, groups have become vital building blocks Höglund, Jarstad, and Söderberg Kovacs for Kenya‘s democracy, as seen in the included an electoral system that generates

8 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 the concentration of power which may lead Electoral management can widely to violence, “weak or politicized electoral be viewed from the values of any EMBs, for management bodies”, failed Security Sector Kenyan case, the EMB in place is IEBC. This Reforms or lack of “external security body has a certain set mandate that guides guarantees” (2009:548). These groups of its operations thus the embodiment of its scholars fail to raise issues pointing that independence given that the model in place security is state-owned machinery and in now of electoral management is one where an election in which a state has an interest the EMBs are supposed to be independent. and electoral body is partially chosen by On this basis, the EMB in Kenya’s nine the government such as the constitution of itemized mandate makes their value Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK). systems. One can project Kenya's electoral Institutions are also good but what will gaps or strengths by closely examining the internally weak ones achieve against their said values. According to the IEBC patrons. At this point, thinking of extra website (IEBC, 2017), the Commission is state institutions may possibly assist the responsible for conducting or supervising internal weaknesses. referenda and elections to any elective Electoral administration is mainly body or office established by the conducted by an electoral management Constitution, and any other elections as body (EMB). EMBs conduct their activity prescribed by an Act of Parliament and, in following several principles: independence, particular, for: impartiality, integrity, transparency, i. The continuous registration of efficiency, professionalism, and service- voters and revision of the voter's mindedness (Wall et al. 2006). The roll; independence and impartiality of EMBs are ii. The delimitation of constituencies often related to the EMB Model - whether and wards; or not the EMB is independent, iii. The regulation of political parties governmental, or mixed; or party-based, process; expertise-based, or both (Wall et. al 2006). iv. The settlement of electoral disputes; Independent and expertise-based models v. The registration of candidates for are considered in many parts of the world elections; as the best EMBs for ensuring the vi. Voter education; independence and impartiality of decisions vii. The facilitation of the observation, and actions. Models are very good whether monitoring, and evaluation of governmental, semi-government, or elections; independent. The role of managers in a viii. The regulation of money spent by a great context has a key role in the candidate or party in respect of any directions electoral management take; this election; goes hand in hand with the behaviour of ix. The development of a code of the individual managers. Systems must be conduct for candidates and parties; supported by these people.

9 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713

x. The monitoring of compliance with see the impact of low trust in EMB and legislation on the nomination of state institutions. In the 2007 election, the candidates by parties. casting of ballots went well, but ensuing The Commission shall exercise its irregularities (both real and alleged), bad powers and perform its functions in communication strategies, and underlying accordance with the Constitution and grievances combined to fuel violence. national legislation. From the above this Following the election, rumors spread as study can conclude that: allegations and conflicting reports from First, a purview into the mandate polling stations suggested that there were reveals very well stated items but the irregularities in the results process. authenticity of execution by many EMBs Krieglar then notes that the EMB, where IEBC is included sometimes rather than addressing the issues head on, portrays a bit of a lacuna. Suggestively, to simply announced results. Then, to make say the least, the percentage of matters worse, the EMB revealed it had independence exercised by the electoral been pressured to do so. The public and bodies towards elections and in ensuring opposition groups were skeptical of the security (freedom from risk, fear, and electoral process already and this threat) is maintained and achieved remains confusion fueled anger among opposition very insignificant. Secondly, EMBs supporters. The issues of electoral supposed role to register voters is a management addressed in this article process that involves using all necessary surrounds; institutional trust and means to prepare ground and weaknesses, poor strategies, doctored infrastructure for political competition result processes, neglect, and political among political parties. This should be patronage which hinders independence. actively carried to discourage political Krieglar further points out that, parties attempting to hijack EMBs role in weaknesses in the Kenya EMB were not the pretext of rallying their perceived evident on the surface of the 2002 election strongholds. This is because political process. Yet there were systemic issues parties under EMBs supervision cannot and weaknesses that were not resolved compete when they already have their with between-elections support. voters known due to registration Election security planning and mobilization, an EMBs’ work. Thirdly, training are also key to electoral conflict EMBs independence will remain as prevention because they can contribute to required if such bodies were to be in a system that can better absorb shocks. … a control of their own mandate, free from coordinated approach between EMBs and intrusion to avoid visible and potent lines the security sector makes a huge difference of collision (such as EMB verses political in the planning and training done within parties; EMB verses Security; EMB verses each institution. Forming a joint operations National Administration; and EMB verses center manned by both EMB and security Citizens) as often seen in Kenya’s polls. officials has proven instrumental in many In ‘Electoral Disputes Resolution’ by elections observes Lisa ibid. Lisa highlights Krieglar (2011), in Kenya in 2007, one can the essence of security in managing

10 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 elections and in perpetuating good some lines of why the latter didn’t turn into electoral practices. similar fate as 2007. He observes that as Discussing electoral management in always, elections, as common in Africa and relation to security then as some earlier other developing world is winning by all cited literature suggest would then require means. Being a political process, using all addressing things to do with: available means is an acceptable norm (i) Principles of operations and role of except where values are relegated as managers (Wall et al’, 2006), subjects to be addressed after assumption (ii) Institutional trust and weaknesses, of leadership, and then the ease of society strengthening of overall breaking into conflict is not remote. The operational strategies such as preparations included the promulgation of planning and training, good a new constitution that set the stage for the transparent and efficient result existence of the Independent Electoral and dissemination, and operating Boundaries Commission (IEBC). This body above political patronage by came into being after the Interim electoral officers (Krieglar, Independent Electoral Commission (IIEC) 2011), and was formed to cause the transition from (iii) Having adequate preparation the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) time (Obala, 2012). into also new constitutional order. December 2007 presidential In referring to the 2013 elections he election shocked the Country and world. views a marked difference observing The 2007/8 violence lasted two months, Kenya’s next Presidential elections are due during which time 1,133 Kenyans were to be held in an environment of great killed, over 600,000 driven from their uncertainty for lords of impunity and homes, and more than 110,000 private violence. The uncertainty is also on the properties were destroyed (Global Centre new political game – that at the same time for the Responsibility to Protect, 2013). It reduces the attraction to the presidency for is this wave that later led to the emerging the resources it doled to the loyalists and effects on East African regional security. sycophants. But also provides ethnic The internal dynamics could not contain kingpins with the opportunity to operate the normal life and business. The condition within a limited sphere predominated by that followed made operations in an their ethnic groups (Obala, 2012). interconnected region difficult. The Secondly, the other marked difference was landlocked Countries could not access the that the incumbent president was retiring Mombasa port with their exports nor reach after having served his last term in office. for their imports, the delays, destructions This meant his hold on the normal on transit, cross border populations, and institutions of transition could well be low still within the internal displacements. key. This scenario necessarily made the In a bit of comparative evaluation of 2013 elections full of threats for a Country the 2007 electoral management and the coming from conflict-related to elections. one that followed, Obala (2012) draws Post-conflict elections are normally very

11 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 volatile and hence a security concern. 27 out of 47 Counties as having Election campaigns in Kenya have often considerable potential to degenerate into focused on internal issues which often take electoral violence (Global Centre for the the nature of ethnic agenda, ethnic Responsibility to Protect, 2013). grouping, and silent role of government. Finally, in 2013, another institution Amidst emerging complex regional the judiciary in its rightful role as an actor dynamics, there are emerging internal in elections acted as an arbiter after the sobering political dynamics that observes IEBC was felt incompetent, and through the Obala. These are compounded by first Supreme Court sitting, the election synonymous traits in Kenya’s political outcome was upheld. The role of scene. institutions in enhancing positively Third, to make 2013 a security security complexities out of elections looks concern and very different from the 2007 a vital mechanism in the transformation of elections was the number of elective offices elections regionally. Kenya’s peaceful that were ushered in by the new elections mean a lot to regional security. constitution’s people’s demand for The definition of security must not be devolution. And, fourth, this election was limited to the traditional view of focusing being conducted within a short preparation on external aggression and internal state time yet it was a recommendation after the dynamics but one that looks at economic 2007 elections that there is a need for wellbeing as well and also postulating adoption of new technology in the extra-territorial effects as matters subsequent elections. A marked similarity pertinent to an all-round definition of that the 2013 elections possessed which security. 2007 had was the characterization of the In one of his writings, a renowned political climate by a seemingly close historian Prof. Amutabi narrates contestation of the presidency. The chronologically that Kenya has had political scene in Kenya is largely split elections in 1964, 1966, 1969, 1974, 1979, along ethnic lines; at the 2007 election 1983, 1988, 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007. Kibaki mainly garnered the Kikuyu vote Between 1964 and 1988, the elections while Odinga was largely supported by Luo were held under KANU. In these elections, and Kalenjin groups... Odinga and Kenyatta the ethnic competition was not as are from the Luo and Kikuyu ethnic groups pronounced as later became the case in respectively. This immediately frames the liberalized politics under a multiparty electoral decision as an ethnic one once political dispensation, from 1992. After again (Cummings, 2012). 1992, it became clear that ethnicity The 2013 election could have as mattered in national politics, and Kenyans well been another security hazard. The for the first time started to vote on what potential flashpoints for the 2013 elections was clearly ethnic basis (Amutabi,2009). are more numerous than in 2007, including It is proper to note an argument not many impoverished, remote and rural far from this literature that competitions in parts of the Country. The Kenyan National Kenya’s elections were terse at Security and Intelligence Service identified independence between the two dominant

12 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 parties KANU and KADU where the latter Kenya in the region was demonstrated by emerged a supreme majoritarian elite the demolition of the Kenya-Uganda ruling organ. However, first, to pick some railway line in Kibera in Kenya’s city of notable issues in this citation, one then Nairobi. would link the aspects of competition, Above all, having led the regional multiparty politics, and ethnicity to Intergovernmental Authority on election security/insecurity since it is Development (IGAD) peace process that during 1992 and after that spillover of yielded the CPA, Kenya has a particularly chaotic elections were felt in a wide scale. strong interest in South Sudan. This Secondly, the literature points to the position is agreeable, one because the suppression of electoral conflicts which Country is an industrial hub to the rightly only needed time to brood and developing states around, secondly, it is a explode at a maturity time not known. transport corridor through its airways to Kenya’s influence in the East Africa such states, and thirdly, it offers an efficient region is measured successfully from its port for export and import business into contribution to the peaceful referendum in the region. More so, the reconstruction of South Sudan. Additionally, the young the two countries is having nationalities Somali citizens living and studying in from across Africa among whom Kenyans Kenya need peace in order for their are part of the human capital present in the expectations to greatly influence a future capital cities of the two states. Somalia. This means a peaceful election in Kenya’s role in the East Africa Kenya guided by among others an Region (EAR) remains significant. In the independent electoral commission and a wake of South Sudan struggles to stabilize progressive constitution as they watch will as a state amidst differences with parent- have a greater impact in influencing the state, Sudan, it is increasingly becoming way the Country will move forward and clear that a regional arbiter is needed as continue affecting positively her neighbor's well as stable regional economic power for politics and economy. closer integration to continue. Kenya’s geo- In confirmation to this, Obala politics makes these necessary. (2012) highlights the critical role of In general terms, electoral violence Kenya’s stability to the region thus, the in Kenya is not new. At least 4,433 Kenyans stability of Kenya after the 2012-2013 have been killed and over 1.8 million elections are vital for entire Sudan’s people displaced by such violence since economic development. Most of the 1993 (Global Centre for the Responsibility Countries neighboring Kenya within the to Protect, 2013). The 2007/8 post-election larger East African Community (EAC) have violence was, however, unprecedented. interests at stake and will be directly affected by Kenya’s stability or instability Election Management Architecture in after the coming elections. Though his Volatile Regions The East African Region stands out emphasis is pointed to Sudan with the as a very vibrant regional block in Africa to ‘South’ in mind, the strategic importance of date in comparison to other similar regions 13 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 yet without a doubt one thing that pulls it a strong believer of a one-party system. back is her volatility due to electoral The state makers in Tanzania ought to challenges. A view of Uganda portrays a measure up with his strides in the context country that has gone through cycles of of 21st Century eco-political environment. post-independent struggles of military Burundi, South Sudan, and Kenya instabilities and violence to be where it is are very volatile to elections. Not to today. However, it is creeping towards mention Somalia which is yet to exercise electoral conflicts whose root causes are unassisted sovereignty and carry out an long-regime related. Rwanda as another equivalent of a standard election since it country in East Africa has cut a niche of a was nursed from state collapse. Kenya clean and effective business destination, a experiences a 5-year electoral cycle/circle practice very common with territorially predictable violence which makes the small states which have taken off country lose almost 4 years in economic economically. Despite this, it continues to development (2 years before and 2 years have a predicted periodic election in favor after elections) from electoral activities of President Paul Kagame. Is the strength of due to failure to successively craft ‘the form democracy measured by economic – state’. Burundi, on one hand, is a country stability? One can still ask if a country can stuck at making strides beyond sustain democracy with a weakened constitutional rule from a kind of chiefdom. economy. Issues of term limits and human South Sudan on the other hand is volatile rights are related to good governance and due to attempts to self-consciousness of falling in the same category with elections state formation where physical, perceived, hence they define the stability of states. and real identities must be integrated to Tanzania has had its challenges to take off. volatility too though struggling with forced East Africa (Centre for Strategic and stability in a fast liberalized world, unlike International Studies, 2020) is one of the past years when it was the joy of every most conflicted and poorly-governed Tanzania to follow Mwalimu Julius corners of the world. Issues in the region, Nyerere. The country experiences a including the implementation of Kenya’s struggle between the good historicals of new constitution, the ongoing efforts to Tanzania about Mwalimu from the old bring order and government to Somalia; generation and the comparable ‘Tanzania’ the frozen yet volatile Ethiopian-Eritrean in the minds of contemporary citizens as border dispute; and piracy in the Gulf of far as the economy, politics, and other Aden and the Indian Ocean are but some social issues are concerned. This is drawn causes of conflict and weakness in from globalization factors that must be governance. used to craft its stability. It is notable that Julius Kambarage Nyerere was an astute Electoral Management: Dynamisms and sociologist who understood times well – he Regional Histories adopted multiparty politics when many The prism of history is rich in African countries were still hesitant and understanding electoral management ruled his maximum 10 years though he was architecture. East Africa region’s

14 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 experience is a context of the African wide supremacy, competitive multi-party view and practicalities. Thomas Otieno politics, and liberal democratic principles Juma in E-International Relations asserts; and judicial independence. A year after the election history in Africa describes independence, the Republican Constitution what the recent changeovers/ continuity of 1962 was enacted ushering in the has been in Africa. African countries that presidential system. have had elections recently such as; Seemingly, the adoption of the Uganda, ‘Burundi’, Sudan, Rwanda, Kenya, systems of government including elections Congo Brazzaville, Togo, Mali, and Zambia did not match African interests from the have experienced continuity of very beginning of independence as can be incumbents; The other category of states observed in Nyerere’s statement from like Tanzania, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, and Mwipopo (2011) “the first President of South Africa have experienced Tanzania argued that, in contemporary changeovers; A third category which is Africa, the multiparty system had no similar to the first category to some extent reason to exist. According to Mwalimu have extended their regimes using Nyerere, unique African societies did not elections. In this category we have Burundi, need a multi-party system”. This is an South Sudan, and DRC whose elections is indication that elections accruing from the now due in December; A unique same were also not desirable and hence circumstantial election/transition scenario how could such activities be held to yield emerging include Sierra Leone, Ethiopia, successful results for a system whose South Africa, and now Zimbabwe; Finally, defiance was not hidden. The belief system there are only two cases recently where of leaders in the immediate post- incumbents have been defeated as was independence influenced electoral witnessed in Ghana and Nigeria. With the management dynamics and this is possible dawn of democracy, many thought to bear acceptance broadly in a region that elections would revert the independent was thinking integration then. African strongman syndrome; it has The point of argument raised by worsened under the legitimization of Nyerere above was adopted by many available governmental institutions. immediate post-independent African Elections have not brought about changes, leaders with little semblance yet the open but the continuity of the unwanted through reasoning looked to be the same. One can approvals at whatever cost. The history of compare what the same statement meant elections strikes an attitude of fear of to Kenyan political elites vis a’ vis their unconducted elections just as much as the Tanzanian counterparts where it probably outcome of any elections (Juma, 2018). meant unity in line with ujamaa policy. Nyirabu notes that Tanzania However, the assertion that African Mainland (Tanganyika) began her societies did not need multipartism has independence in 1961 under the been the greatest impediment to the Independence Constitution which provided practice of democracy used in favor of a for an elected government, parliamentary

15 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 ruling regime to avert healthy choice to the operationalization is altogether another electorates. issue. Why raise this? It is because, a Introspection into Tanzania’s country like Kenya at the time of 2007 electoral system used currently First Past elections had moved from governmental to the Post (FPTP), pluralism where the semi- governmental through even a Presidential, Parliamentary, and Councilor referendum testing but the results were Candidate who secures the simple majority not impressive. Systems by no means are of votes is declared to be the winner has very good especially when handled by the remained to build comparatively peaceful right people within the frameworks that atmosphere within and in the region. One direct systems operations. may ask whether this is a product of To the proponents of electoral institutional or legal frameworks at work systems (Reynolds et ‘al), the consideration or a foundation of some hidden set system of political advantage is almost always a at work. factor in the choice of electoral systems An important point to understand is from among the many that exist; Firstly, that different electoral systems exist and there are plurality/majority systems under these have been used in East Africa. IFES which Fast Past the Post, Block Vote BV), (2014), points that an election system is a Party Block Vote (PBV), Alternative Vote method by which voters make a choice (AV), The Two Round- System (TRS) exist. between options, often in an election or on a Secondly, there are proportional policy referendum. An electoral system representation systems where there are contains rules for valid voting, and how systems such as List Proportional votes are fed and aggregated to yield a final Representation (LPR) and The Single result. Transferable Vote (STV). In the third The choice of electoral system is one categorization, there are mixed systems of the most important institutional under which there are Mixed-Member decisions for any democracy (Reynolds et Systems (MMS) and Parallel Systems. ‘al, 2005). They say, in almost all cases the Fourthly, other systems exist as the Single choice of a particular electoral system has a Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV), The profound effect on the future political life Limited Vote (LV), and the Borda F (BC). of the country concerned, and electoral Finally, electoral systems can take hybrid systems, once chosen, often remain fairly formats of the existing systems. constant as political interests solidify Any electoral system should around and respond to the incentives cultivate diversity in the representation presented by them. Electoral system choice and extent of representation in the is a fundamentally political process, rather legislature and that it should be one that is than a question to which independent fair to both voters and parties Haysom technical experts can produce a single (2003). In discussing Proportional ‘correct answer’. Representation (PR), Elklit (2003: 122), “ I The point raised by Reynolds et ‘al see it as an umbrella concept, which is is very contestable because choice of particularly attractive because it is electoral system is one thing but its nonspecific, but also because it allows for

16 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 the inclusion of specific systemic elements, The non-Congress opposition parties which taken alone must detract from (without the communists) took over in proportionality. This is the formal electoral government in 1977 by uniting into a thresholds in Germany and Denmark. composite entity, the Janata Party. It split These are electoral systems whose main within two years. In December 1989, a objective is to achieve a reasonable degree successor party, the Janata Dal, came to of proportionality.” power, supported by the communist In a First Past the Post system parties and the Hindu revivalist Bharatiya (FPTP), sometimes known as a plurality Janata Party (BJP); this government lasted single-member district system, the winner ten months. At the general election of 1996, is the candidate with the most votes, but no party was able to form a stable not necessarily an absolute majority of the government. votes. When this system is used in multi- The manifestation of the three member districts it becomes the Block Vote models (governmental, mixed model, and (BV). Voters have as many votes as there independent model) of electoral are seats to be filled, and the highest- management in Kenya’s history adds to the polling candidates fill the positions, electoral dynamics. The governmental regardless of the percentage of the vote model is the longest-used spanning 39 they actually achieve. Majoritarian systems, years and encompassing two first such as the Australian Alternative Vote independent regimes. Its implementation (AV) and the French two-round System into the electoral politics saw; executive (TRS) try to ensure that the winning overbearing through direct appointments candidate receives an absolute majority of cronies as EMB managers, and second to (i.e. over fifty percent). Each system, in this, using security agencies and Provincial essence, makes use of voters' second Administration (PA) to run elections giving preferences to produce a majority winner if accountability only to the President. With one does not emerge from the first round many dissents arising from the weaknesses of voting (www.aceproject.org). in this model, hardly did Kenya attain a Despite FPTP’s popularity, it has Mixed Model perfectly. What emerged in some reservations in some places where it the aftermath was a unique format has been used because of inherent initiated by the legislature and the instabilities. This means that the use of executive through the Inter-Parliamentary specifically one model of the electoral Party Group (IPPG) in 1997 towards the system may have its disadvantages. For a end of the Moi regime. This unique method period of 20 years (International IDEA, addressed the inclusive appointment of 2005), from 1977 to 1997, the FPTP electoral managers and media freedoms electoral system seemed to have ushered in but much of EMBs as to secretariat and an era of instability, principally because of operations somehow remained a reserve of the formation of coalitions without government through funding. The common principles and the pursuit of internal dynamics of state hand in logistics narrow self-interest by political parties. and other management areas partly led to

17 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 the 2007/8 election violence. The loose After the Constitutional Conference, legal frameworks made President Kibaki the next major process that greatly affected exude executive powers for his benefit the fortunes of UPC and the Country as a prior to the 2007 election. The whole was the elections of 1962. A independent electoral model has a short unanimous consensus had been arrived at stint in Kenya starting from the inception that important election of March 1961, in of IIEC to the IEBC era that is from 2010 to view of the boycott, they could not date. This model has seen Kenya through a constitute the basis for governance. national referendum, several by-elections, However, much as the neo-traditionalists one general election in 2013. It is yet to had gotten in place an electoral procedure oversee well functional political party in accord with their desire, they did not as management structures. Much of its yet have an electoral machine. Such weaknesses arise from weaknesses machinery was to be launched on Saturday, surrounding the conscious of its June 10, 1961, at a mammoth independence internally and externally demonstration against the election the through impediments of budgeting previous March of a DP government led by constraints, the government wanting to Benedicto Kiwanuka (Hancock, 1970). involve, and over expecting and suspicious Kiwanuka's `sins' were three public. according to Hancock: he was a Catholic Uganda’s case differs from other who had opposed the neo-traditionalists; surrounding states of the East Africa he had fought the elections in Buganda Region according to Mutibwa because of despite the boycott, and he was a what he refers to as the obvious political commoner who had dared set himself climate that has existed- coups and above the Kabaka. The movement to lead takeovers which are insecurity in the resistance to DP was called Kabaka themselves. Its elections evaluation covers Yekka (KY which meant Kabaka only). Its mostly the many years of Museveni principal objectives were neo-traditionalist regimes because the Country had in character: to see that political changes numerous years of instability. However, do not destroy the good customs and earlier elections had many observations traditions. . . of Buganda; and, not to allow surrounding issues like alliances, electoral anybody to be above the Kabaka. procedures to be followed, individual In the period following Uganda’s status, and the Buganda factor. In 1961, independence attained in 1962, political, Obote, as UPC leader, issued a statement in social, and economic dynamics started to which he outlined a strategy for persuading manifest themselves as citizens developed Buganda to participate in the forthcoming an interest in the country’s democracy. constitutional conference to prepare for Stating again on Uganda’s electoral politics, independence. He invited the Lukiiko to Ogwang, (2007), however, points out that join hands with the UPC and form a prior to independence, elections were not "partnership" during the conference … much valued and the issues preoccupying (Mutibwa, 1982). most politics by 1964 being handling of the lost counties by then under Buganda but

18 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 claimed by Bunyoro. The elections then colonies, and others who conduct elections went on recess for over 18 years only to be with obvious outcomes at state conducted in 1980 through efforts of the expenditure. The Francophone countries of Chairman of the Military Commission, H.E Rwanda and Burundi in the East African (late) Paulo Muwanga. Important to point Region have been slowly developing their is that the political environment led to this electoral bodies and conducting elections recess. It might not be true as Ogwang after years of Hutu – Tutsi conflicts. suggests that elections were not valued, Though most of their intrastate conflicts rather it is possible there were no have taken the tribal dimensions and led to equivalent systems of running elections regional security effects, the elections so instituted at independence. All references far held have not exploded into a serious on politics were centered on the executives security issue except for suspicions on such who took over reigns from the colonial basis. Other regional countries like Somalia regimes. are just coming out of the many years of Ogwang (2007) records that state failure while South Sudan filled with election went on recess for another 14 many dictatorial regimes has been years as the National Resistance Movement continuously contending with how to (NRM) reconstituted its regime. Through attain stability. the Commission of Constituent Assembly The ‘youngest’ African state, South (CCA) of 1993 to Interim Electoral Sudan through the regional and global Commission (IEC) of 1995 to the Electoral support held its nascent Country’s last Commission (EC) of 1997, Uganda has elections in April 2010 when the region consistently held elections whose head is a was an autonomous part of Sudan as part Presidential appointee. On 18th November of a 2005 peace deal with the Khartoum 2002, His Excellency the President of government according to Kuacjok (2013) Uganda Yoweri K. Museveni appointed a and will hold its first polls in probably in new Commission, chaired by Eng. Dr. B.M. 2015 if there is no change. Kiggundu. With challenges of There is a growing trend towards reconstitution of an EMB, though operating elections as a means of representation in on the governmental model, the Africa. What this portends is that contribution to regional instability has not democracy is appealing to many political been measurably felt in the East Africa players. Vorrath asserts that multiparty Region. elections have become frequent events in The interesting practice of electoral almost all countries of sub-Saharan Africa management as a determinant to power (SSA). But in 2010 and 2011 an control and democratic avenue to usher in exceptionally high number of elections development has somehow been evasive to have been held. By mid-2011 presidential Africa. A discourse into it portrays a and/or parliamentary elections had taken sanitizing process for leaders to fulfill the place in 20 countries. While voting has Western democratic ideals. There is a become a regular occurrence in many of larger portion of states, the former French these countries, has it been accompanied

19 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 by an improvement in democratic quality? to be strengthened theoretically Vorrath (2011). The question of quality is through regional institutions. what drags electoral management in this Keith Suter makes very strong thought because silently it is a question of speculation of the world order how elections are conducted and their characteristic to the 21st century from a value to democracy and much more a business perspective that confirms the question of holding elections vis a vis dependent nature of states in a globalizing making meaning to electoral decisions. world. Suter (2008) uses the business According to Vorrath (2011), quality management technique of scenario has also been called into question by planning to look at how the global order electoral violence and insecurity. Insecurity could evolve. It speculates on four ‘futures’: still seems to be commonly associated with a continuation of the current order, so that voting in SSA, with eight of the 20 countries much of what we currently see will witnessing downward security trends in continue well into the future (‘Steady the context of recent elections. A popular State’); greater international co-operation line of thought which might be very via a strengthened United Nations (‘World satisfactory to tyrants in Africa is what State’); the continued decline of national (Lindberg 2006) suggests regular elections, governments in the running of economies even if flawed and imperfect, improve with transnational corporations filling the democratic quality over time. It is anti- vacuum (‘Earth Inc’); and a breakdown in quality and not bothered by the outcomes both the system of nation-states and of the imperfect elections. This category of transnational corporations with greater thought out rightly views elections as chaos at the national and international rubber stamps of illegitimacy thus pointers levels (‘Wild State’). Suter affirms a steady- of their nature to perpetuate insecurity. state situation in enhanced cooperation –

Survival of One State – Survival of All: world state scenario with a weakening Security in The Era of Regionalization government. As American explorer Nicholas Given the many scenarios of electoral Hagger said, "The only way to realize the dynamics breaking security fabrics of United World standard is the globalist existing states and how the threats phase of development of one of the spread to affect the periphery from the core. The realist order must be powerful civilizations. If North American urgently supported by the neo- civilization becomes openly imperialist and liberalist order for survival of global decides to create a Confederate Empire aka system. While independence in American type, this standard may exist electoral management throughout the expansionist phase of its operationalization remains key state development." "We are currently issues, interdependence in cooperating with anyone who can make the containment of threat is no reserve to incapacitated states in a fast entire world States forget about the interlocking regional community of mysterious force called sovereignty. And states. The complimentarity effect in we constantly deny what we do in reality," security of neighbouring states ought said Arnold Joseph Toynbee. Toynbee 20 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 headed Chatham House for thirty years -- pouring oil on the fire (Annonymous, the Royal Institute of International Affairs 2019). (RIIA), the main West "think tank." And in a Hans Morgenthau (Al-Rodhan, unique way it combined the qualities of the 2007c) once wrote that: “International deepest academic scientist and relations is something not to be taken for experienced political swindler, puppeteer, granted, but something to be understood on account of which dozens, if not and to be changed and, more particularly, hundreds of different subversive special to be changed beyond the present limits of operations. He knew what he was talking its political structure and organization. about. What is globalization and how does Here lies indeed the ultimate theoretical it relate to sovereignty? Schematically, it and practical justification for our interest looks like a combination of two in a theory of international relations.” phenomena. The first phenomenon is of Given that security and prosperity geopolitical origin and is called are highly dependent on cooperative "glocalization." It denotes erosion and relations with other states, we cannot destruction of states and sovereignties assume that relations between states are with the transfer of state powers and necessarily principally governed by prerogatives upwards -- in global and competition. Increased interdependence regional (uniting several countries within means that absolute gains are possible and the region) structures and downwards, in that global politics ought not to be a priori local -- domestic regions and zero-sum as realism suggests. This implies municipalities. The second phenomenon is that even if a state possesses a related to the civilization factor, which is disproportionate degree of power, other "fragmentation" -- identities fragmentation states may not form alliances against it. combined with the integration of Indeed, it is far more likely in today’s world economies. Moreover, any identity -- that they would ally themselves with the civilizational (religious and cultural), most powerful state, if that power were national, social, political, ideological -- is constituted primarily through capacities fragmented. And its fragmented in order to other than solely military power Al- strike out any self from them, replacing it Rodhan, 2007a). with an economy that will lead to a single Realism’s state-centrism (Al- denominator, which is from the Western Rodhan, 2007c) also leads to a conception test tubes. In other words, the globalization of the global system that is too narrow, goal is to destroy and dismantle all resulting in the neglect of numerous non- communities -- from family to state. To state actors that help to account for the destroy all forms of collective dynamics and relations inside the global consciousness, to pit them against each system. Moreover, limiting the study of IR other, to divide them, to organize the war to the distribution of material capabilities chaos of all against all, and then to sit atop between states neglects other types of the pyramid, managing the contradictions power and motivators of action that of cogs and atoms, rubbing his hands and constitute identities other than that of the

21 Thomas Otieno Juma Understanding Kenya’s Electoral Management Architectural Context: Surviving Both The State and A Volatile Region

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 rational, egoistic sovereign state — such as the Book - There’s a Future: Visions ethnic and gender identities. In my view, for a Better World – “The Future of the conception of the global system must International Relations: A Symbiotic be widened and, moreover, an idealist Realism Theory”. Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Geneva, dimension must be added to its ontology Switzerland. (i.e., what exists). Amutabi, Maurice (2009). Beyond Imperial In the 21st century, therefore, Presidency in Kenya: Interrogating survival of one state is essential to all the Kenyatta, Moi and Kibaki others. Al-Rodhan (2007c) symbiotic Regimes and Implications for realism outlines a governance structure Democracy and Development. Kenya Studies Review: 1, 1, 55-84. that takes into account the predilections of Anderson, D. (2005). ‘Yours in struggle for human nature. Whether it is achievable is majimbo’: nationalism and the party another discourse. To him, symbiotic politics of decolonization in Kenya, realism helps explain why today the US, for 1955–64. Journal of Contemporary example, can lead without having to History 40 (3), 547–565. confront alliances from other major Annonymous (2019). Sovereignty Against powers. It also indicates that a hegemony Globalism: The Main 21st Century Dilemma. Washington - February 1. based on consent may provide the best Bengali, S. (2008: January 31). How Kenya’s means at present of mitigating the election was rigged. McClatchy consequences of the interlocking Newspapers. Available from: dimensions of human nature, globalization, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/100/sto and global anarchy. ry/25830.html. Brown, Mark Malloch. (2003). Democratic Governance: Toward a Framework for Sustainable Peace. Global REFERENCES: Governance. 9:141-146.

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