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The Impact of MTR Stations on Housing Price in Hong Kong Stephanie Ng Advisor: Prof

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The Impact of MTR Stations on Housing Price in Hong Kong Stephanie Ng Advisor: Prof The Impact of MTR Stations on Housing Price in Hong Kong Stephanie Ng Advisor: Prof. Siodla Abstract: The MTR subway system in Hong Kong expanded from 55 stations to 93 stations in the past two decades, serving more than 5 million passengers everyday. Due to the high reliance of residents MTR in providing public transportation to the city, it would be interesting to see to what extent do residents in Hong Kong value convenient access to an MTR station. In this paper, I analyze the impact of new MTR stations on housing prices in Yuen Long and Ma On Shan neighbourhoods. Using Rosen’s Hedonic Pricing Model and difference-in-difference method, I find that, controlling for year and structural characteristics, neighbourhoods that gain access to MTR stations encounter an increase in housing prices of at least 8 percent. These results suggest that access to public transportation is highly valued in Hong Kong. Keywords: Housing Price, Hong Kong, Hedonic Pricing Model, Infrastructure, Transportation, Subway Acknowledgement I would like to thank my advisor, Professor Jim Siodla for his patient supervision throughout the course of this thesis. I am also grateful to Professor Samara Gunter and Professor Randy Nelson for their guidance and feedback that c Lastly, I would like to thank my friends at Colby College and my family for endless support during this journey. I. Introduction Articles about housing prices in Hong Kong seem never to leave the headlines of major newspapers. Hong Kong’s housing market has been a hot topic not only because it catches the attention of the government and overseas investors, but also because it fundamentally impacts the day-to-day lives of average people: our cost of living, standard of living, and even family planning decisions are affected by the housing market. According to data collected by Midland Realty, an average 1000 square-foot apartment in Hong Kong that cost 320,000 USD in 2003 would cost 1.4 million today.1 The 14th Annual Demographia International Housing Survey: 2018 conducted by the Performance Urban Planning Organization assesses housing affordability by calculating the median housing price divided by gross pre-tax annual median household income. Result shows that among the 26 severely unaffordable major housing markets, Hong Kong is the least affordable with a Median Multiple of 19.4. The city has also been the least affordable market since at least 2009. Scholarly interest in this topic has produced a number of econometric analyses that explore the internal and external factors of housing prices in Hong Kong. Tse, Ho and Ganesan (1999) study on the supply and demand of housing in Hong Kong. They specifically looked into the effects of population growth, transaction volume, and the inflation rate on housing prices in Hong Kong. As an elaboration on the pre-existing findings, my paper focuses on one of the key factors that drive housing prices in Hong Kong: transportation. Specifically, I look at how the expansion and development of the Mass Transit Railway (“MTR”) has affected housing prices in Hong Kong. 1 Source from Midland Realty, Hong Kong 2 MTR Corporation Annual Report 2017, page 2 MTR, which serves as one of the most important modes of transportation for commuters in Hong Kong, expanded from 55 stations to 93 stations across Hong Kong since 2000. Since the completion of three more stations in December 2016, the MTR now spreads across all eighteen districts in Hong Kong. The MTR is also renowned for its efficiency and cleanliness. During the morning peak hours, 8-car trains with a capacity of 2,500 passengers each run at 2-minute intervals, carrying around 75,000 passengers per hour per direction on the Tsuen Wan Line. Because the trains run at frequent intervals for 19 hours per day, MTR Corporation takes a 48.4% market share of Public Transport Market.2 With such rapid development in MTR over the past two decades, it would be interesting to see whether or not MTR plays an important role in determining housing prices in Hong Kong. Specifically, I look at whether or not there’s a housing price appreciation in the neighbourhood due to an opening of a MTR station in the neighbourhood. My hypothesis is that in an event where an MTR station is introduced to a neighbourhood, housing price has to increase to offset the lower opportunity cost that the neighbourhood enjoys compared to other distant locations. Second, if there is an appreciation, I am interested to see the trend of such appreciation, whether housing prices slowly adjust to the better access and convenience of having an MTR station, or immediately capitalize upon the opening of an MTR station. II. Literature Review A number of scholars that have explored the relationship between housing prices and transportation. The well-established model of Alosno (1964), Muth (1969) and Mills (1967) gives a strong foundation for understanding the fundamental forces 2 MTR Corporation Annual Report 2017, page 2 that explain the overall urban structure. The model assumes a city with a fixed population and a given income level living around the Central Business Districts (“CBD”). It also relies on the condition that consumers must be equally well off at all locations, achieving the same utility regardless of where they live in the city. When commuting cost increases, the disposable income of household decreases. The only way to keep consumers at all locations equally well of is to decrease the housing price per floor space as distance increases. In other words, a lower housing price compensates for the disadvantage of higher commuting costs at farther locations. The model also incorporates the time cost component of the commuting cost, directly drawing the tradeoff relationship between commuting costs and housing prices. In contrast to looking at overall housing demand and city structures (where housing is homogenous), the Hedonic Pricing Model by Rosen (1972) accounts for the specific attributes of the apartments. The function can be estimated by using data that are available to homebuyers, such as square footage, number of bedrooms, and floor level. Researchers have used the Hedonic Pricing Model in estimating the value of certain characteristics of housing. Ball (1973) and Dewees (1976) looks into the importance of accessibility attributes while Anderson and Crocker (1971) look into the importance of externalities and neighbourhood characteristics. Mok, Chan and Chow (1995) use the hedonic price model to look at private properties in Hong Kong and they found that the elasticities of housing attributes obtained from the Box-Cos analysis indicate that the valuation of a property is sensitive to changes in housing traits. Bajic (1983), more specifically, looked into the relationship between transportation and housing prices, and found that the residential values near a rail line were $2,327 higher than elsewhere. As we have witnessed massive transportation improvements in the past two decades in Asia, researchers have paid more attention to the effect of transportation on housing prices in Asia. Sun, Zheng and Han (2013) study on the effect of subway lines on housing prices in Chengdu and find that housing prices are 7% to 14% higher within 1.5km around the subway station than outside the stations. Diao, Leonard and Ling (2016) also did similar research on how the opening of the new Circle Line affected housing prices in Singapore, and concluded that it increases housing prices by 8.6% in the treated zone relative to houses in control zones. Though many scholars have looked into the effects of transportation on housing prices, research on the relationship between transportation and Hong Kong housing prices is fairly limited. Ho, Tse, and Ganesan (1997) look into the influence of transportation on housing price. Yiu and Wong’s (2005) paper is the most recent publication that explores the relationship between transportation and housing prices in Hong Kong. Specifically, they investigated the effect of a newly built tunnel on housing prices in Hong Kong and found that there were positive price expectation effects well before the completion of the tunnel, indicating a positive effect on housing prices. However, despite the rapid development of the MTR transportation system and the surge in housing prices experienced in the city, there is not any recent research exploring the impact of new MTR stations on housing prices in Hong Kong. This study attempts to estimate the impact of newly opened MTR stations on local housing prices. III. Methodology and Data This paper uses Rosen (1974)’s Hedonic Pricing Model (“HPM”). The basic premise of HPM is that price of the good, housing in this case, is determined by both internal characteristics of the good and external factors. An improvement in the characteristics may increase the value of the good, meaning when transportation improves, the value of the property increases. In this study, most data will be extracted from “Centadata”, a real estate information system that contains comprehensive information on past property transactions in Hong Kong. I collect transaction date, transaction price, rentable square footage, useable square footage, apartment name, age of the building, floor level and flat information from the Centadata online platform. Figure 1. CBD, Treatment Zone and Control Zone location in Hong Kong Source: Planning Data from Town Planning Board Survey Base Map from Lands Department In this study, Yuen Long is chosen as the treatment zone and the Gold Coast area is chosen as the control zone. Both the treatment zone and control zone are located on the Western side of the New Territories area, and are of similar distances from the CBD (“Commercial Building Districts”) in Kowloon and Hong Kong Island. Central is the CBD on the Hong Kong Island and Tsim Sha Tsui is the CBD in Kowloon.
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