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Modelling of Restoration Scenarios for Lake Ngaroto

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Modelling of Restoration Scenarios for Lake Ngaroto Modelling of restoration scenarios for Lake Ngaroto CBER Report 81 Report prepared for Waipa District Council By Wendy Paul, Deniz Özkundakci and David Hamilton Photo: Warrick Powrie Centre for Biodiversity and Ecology Research Department of Biological Sciences The University of Waikato Private Bag 3105 Hamilton 3240 August 2008 I 65BTable of contents 0HList of figures .............................................................................................. 113 HIV 1HList of tables ................................................................................................ 114 HVI 2HList of Appendices ..................................................................................... 115 HVII 3HAcknowledgements ...................................................................................116 HVIII 4HExecutive summary ....................................................................................... 117 H9 5H1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 118 H10 6H2 Methods ...................................................................................................... 119 H12 7H2.1 Sampling sites .................................................................................................... 120 H12 8H2.2 Sampling ............................................................................................................. 121 H14 9H2.2.1 Lake ................................................................................................................. 122 H14 10H2.2.2 Inflow and outflow ........................................................................................... 123 H14 11H2.3 Analytical techniques ........................................................................................ 124 H15 12H2.3.1 Light attenuation coefficient ............................................................................ 125H15 13H2.3.2 Nutrient analysis ............................................................................................. 126 H15 14H2.3.3 Chlorophyll a analysis .................................................................................... 127 H15 15H2.3.4 Suspended solids ............................................................................................. 128 H16 16H2.3.5 Phytoplankton .................................................................................................. 129 H16 17H2.4 Model DYRESM-CAEDYM ............................................................................ 130 H16 18H2.4.1 Meteorological data ........................................................................................ 131 H17 19H2.4.2 Water balance ................................................................................................. 132 H18 20H2.4.3 Inflow and outflow data ................................................................................... 133 H21 21H2.4.4 Morphometry of the Lake ................................................................................ 134 H22 22H2.4.5 Initial profile ................................................................................................... 135 H22 23H2.4.6 Phytoplankton .................................................................................................. 136 H22 24H2.4.7 Suspended solids ............................................................................................. 137 H22 I 25H2.5 Model simulation of restoration scenarios ...................................................... 138 H23 26H2.5.1 Scenario I ........................................................................................................ 139 H23 27H2.5.2 Scenario II ....................................................................................................... 140 H23 28H2.5.3 Scenario III ...................................................................................................... 141 H24 29H2.5.4 Scenario IV ...................................................................................................... 142 H24 30H2.5.5 Scenario V ....................................................................................................... 143 H24 31H2.5.6 Scenario VI ...................................................................................................... 144 H25 32H2.5.7 Scenario VII ..................................................................................................... 145 H25 33H3 Results ......................................................................................................... 146 H26 34H3.1 Flow results ........................................................................................................ 147 H26 35H3.1.1 Temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH and conductivity ..................................... 148 H26 36H3.1.2 Nutrients .......................................................................................................... 149 H26 37H3.1.3 Chlorophyll a ................................................................................................... 150 H27 38H3.1.4 Suspended solids ............................................................................................. 151 H27 39H3.2 Lake Results ....................................................................................................... 152 H27 40H3.2.1 Temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH and conductivity ..................................... 153 H27 41H3.2.2 Nutrients .......................................................................................................... 154 H28 42H3.2.3 Chlorophyll a ................................................................................................... 155 H28 43H3.2.4 Suspended solids ............................................................................................. 156 H29 44H3.2.5 Light attenuation coefficient (Kd) and secchi depth ....................................... 157 H29 45H3.2.6 Phytoplankton .................................................................................................. 158 H29 46H3.3 Model results ...................................................................................................... 159 H30 47H3.3.1 Temperature .................................................................................................... 160 H30 48H3.3.2 Dissolved oxygen ............................................................................................. 161 H31 49H3.3.3 Nutrients .......................................................................................................... 162 H32 50H3.3.4 Chlorophyll a ................................................................................................... 163 H34 51H3.3.5 Suspended solids ............................................................................................. 164 H34 52H3.4 Restoration scenario results ............................................................................. 165 H36 53H3.4.1 Scenario I ........................................................................................................ 166 H36 54H3.4.2 Scenario II ....................................................................................................... 167 H36 55H3.4.3 Scenario III ...................................................................................................... 168 H36 56H3.4.4 Scenario IV ...................................................................................................... 169 H42 II 57H3.4.5 Scenario V-1 .................................................................................................... 170 H42 58H3.4.6 Scenario V-2 .................................................................................................... 171 H42 59H3.4.7 Scenario VI ...................................................................................................... 172 H48 60H3.4.8 Scenario VII ..................................................................................................... 173 H48 61H4 Discussion .................................................................................................... 55 62H5 References ................................................................................................... 57 63HAppendices .................................................................................................. 59 III 66BList of figures 64H Figure 1: Aerial photograph of Lake Ngaroto showing in-lake, inflow and outflow sampling sites. .................................................................................................................................. 13 65H Figure 2:Meteorological data used as input to the DYRESM model, including (A) air temperature Tair (°C), (B) short wave radiation (SW), (C) surface wind speed (u0), (D) vapour pressure (es) and (E) cloud cover (CC). ............................................................... 17 66H Figure 3:Lake evaporation vs wind speed. .............................................................................. 18 67H Figure 4: Inflows measured and modelled ............................................................................... 19 68H Figure 5:Outflow measured and outflow modelled ................................................................. 19 69H Figure 6: Temperature measured, estimated and DO estimated .............................................. 22 70H Figure 7: Daily averages of the temperature in the middle of the lake at three depths, surface (0 m),
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