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Analysis of the New York New York Standard Metropolitan Statistical 728 .7 AJ : 308 Y F22 New York (N.Y.) 7964 I t EHHE+{EW YORK, NEW Y , STANDARD METROPOLITAN NY b1 STATTSTTCAL ARE! t lrjn, Yu '' 't as of September t, 1964 ,st A Report by thc FEDERAT HOUSING ADMINISTRATION wASHtNGTON, D.C.20111 DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT Jonuory 1966 AN ANALYSIS OE THE HOUSING MARKET OT' THE NEW YORK NEW YORK STANDARD MEI'ROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA AS OF SEPTEMBER I t964 ffiPmrffill 0r il0usllE tm llRBtlt ffiufl0Ptiltl ocT 4 - 1974 UBf,IRY tttslllt0lolt, 0.c. 20f10 FIELD MARKET ANALYSIS SERVICE FEDERAL IIOUSING ADMINISTRATION DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT F o rewo rC As a public service to assist Iocill housing activities through clearer understanding of local horrsing market conditions, FHA inltiated publication of its comprehensive horrsing market analyses early in 1965. WhiIe each report is designed specifically for FHA use in administering i ts rnor:tgage insurance operations, it is expected that the factual information and the findings and conclusions of these reports will be generally useful also to builders, morEgagees, and others concerned with locaI housing problems and to others having an interest in local economic con- ditions and trends. Since market analysis is not an exact science the judgmental factor is important in the development of findings and conclusions There wlll, of course, be differences of opinion in the inter- pretatlon of avallable Eactual informaEion in determj.nlng the absorpEive capacity of the market and the requirements for main- tenance of a reasonable balance in demand-supply relationshlps. The factual framervork for each analysis is developed as thoroughly as possible on the basis of inforrnation available from both local and national sources. Unless sper:ifically identified by source reference, all estimates and judgmr:rEs tn the analysis are those of the authorlng anaIysE. TabIe of Contents Page Summary and Conclusions i Housing Market Area I Map of Area La Economy of the Area Charac ter 2 lrlork Force 3 Emp L oymen t 4 Un emp I oymen t l Projection of Future EmpLoyment 1 Income 8 Demographic Factors Popu lati on IO Househo Lds 1l Housing Market Factors flousing SuppIy 13 Residential Bui lding Activity L5 Tenure l1 Vacancv l8 Sales l,larket 2L Rental Market )) Mortgage Market 25 Urban Renewal Activi.ty 26 Public Housing ,1 Demand for Housing Quanti tative Demand 28 Qualitative Demand 29 County Summaries New York City Bronx County 32 Kings County 31 New York County 4l Queens County l+1 Richmond County 52 Suburban Counties Nassau County 55 Rockland County 59 Suffolk CounEy 63 Westchester County 61 An Analysis of the Housing Market Of the New York New York Standard Metr opoli tan Statistical Area As of September I 1964 Summary and Conc lusi ons I The New York Housing Market Area, as defined for this report, consists of the five counties of New york City and four suburban counties. This area is part of a larger 22-county metropolitan region. The region as a whole provides a sub6tantial proportion of the nationaL total number of jobs in both manufacturini ana nonmanufacturing, but is particularly important in fields such as wholesaling, finance, and business and professional services. The area is the largest single manufacturing center in the Nation, moreover, and is parEicularry important in the fieid of apparer and in publishing and printing. 2 The civilian work force of the New york SMSA averaged 5,2gj,ooo during 1963, including just under five milrion employed persons and nearly 3oo,ooo unemployed persons, for an unemployment rate of 5.6 percent. Unemployment in the New york area has ranged between and 5.3 6.o percent in the 1960-1963 period. There has been an increase in employment in the New york area over the past 4 years, but the average annual increments have been rather smarI. By 1970, it is likely that employment in the New york area will roral 5,2oo,oo0 jobs. 3 Itlhile the New York area contains a large number of persons' well-to-do average earnings in the New york area have been below the united States average since the early 1950's, and median income levels in the area as a whole are not particurarry high. For all families in the area, the median afte;-tax income is now about $7, I25. rncomes are, of course, much higher in some suburban counties and are considerabry rower for some types of fami lies concentrated in the centrat ti ty. 4 The population of the area totals nearly rr,348,8oo as of SepEember 1, 1964,6 percent above the ApriI 1960 census total. Since 1960, the population of New York city is believed to have grown, in contrast to the decline in the previous decade, and population growth in the suburban counties is believed to have slowed. By lg'7o, the population of the 9-county area is expected to total, just over 12 milLion. ii 5. The number of households in the New York area has increased by an average of $J 1700 a year since April 1960 to a current total of 3r599rLOO. By L97Ot there will be 3r979rOOO households in the area, reflecting growth of an average of l+61700 a year in the 196L-1970 period. 6. In the past seven and one half years, an average of 55rOOA dwelling units have been authorized annually by building permits. Permit volume reached a peak of 991000 units in 1962, reflecting in large part the desire of New Iork City builders to escape the impact of new zoning regulations. tsy 'L96L, the volume of r:nits authorized by pemits had declined to [!1000 units. Multifamily housing accounts for the bulk of new construction in thls area, particularly within the City of New York. The annual fluctuations in construction volume have affected the rnultifamily market much more than single- family construction which has remained fairly constant at about 2lrrOOO r:nits B y€ar. Reflecting the variatlons in multifamily construction, annuBl rrermits for single-family housing have varied between 23 anci l0 percent of the total. A substantial part of the construction of multifamily housing has been accomplished witLr varicus types of public assistance. In New York Cit1, 28 percent of all multifamily coo:pletions in the 19h6-1762 period were so aided. 1. Vacancies in the Nerv York area are very low for the older portion of the rental lnventory which is stiLL subject to rent control, but are much higher for other rental housing inciuding newly completed structures not subject to ccntrol. The higher vacancy leveL is especially prevalent in projects completed in the last year or so, refLecting the 1962 peak in building permits. Over-all, the available vacancy rate is estimated to be 2.3 percent, with a I.3 percent vacancJ/ in sales housing and a 2.9 percent vacanc)/ in rental housing. B. The various factors summarized above lead to the conclusion that there is an annual demand for 59 1200 housing unlts in the New York area over the next 6 years including 191500 sales-type . units and ))1600 rental-ttrpe units. Distributions of the demand for both sales and rental housing by price and (for rental hcusing) by unit size are shown in tables on pages 33 and 3h, respectively, for the entir€ 8r€&o The county summaries which begin on page 35 (see table of contents) contain separate distributicns of sales and rental housing demand for each county. AN ANALYSIS OF THE HOUSING MARKET OF THE NEW YORK NEW YORK, STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTlCAL AREA AS 0F SEPTEMBER I ) t964 Housing Market Area The New York area can be conceived of as a series of roughly con- centric semicircles with a base running from southwest to northeast aLong the Atlantic Ocean from the Manasquan lnlet at the tip of Monmouth County, New Jersey, to Montauk Point at the eastern end of Long Isiand, Suffolk County, New York, and an arc large enough to include Rhinebeck, New York, on the north and Port.ic.rvis, New York, on the east. This is the 22-county area defined bv the Regional PLan Association as the New York Metropolitan Region (see map, nexE page). The exclusion of five counties (Monmouth, N.J.; Fairfield, Conn.; Dutchess, Orange, and Putnam, N.Y.) reduces the area to the New York-Northeastern New Jersey Standard Consolidated Area. This area, in turn, is composed of four (smalI) metropolitan areas in New Jersey and the New York Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area, defined as consisting of the five coun[ies of New York City and four suburban counties in New York S[ate--Nassau, RockIand, SuffoLk, and Westchester It is this latter area - aLl of which is within the jurisdiction of the Hempstead Insuring Office and the New York MultifamiLy anci Zone Office - with which this report witl be directly concerned. Commu ta t i on . Data from Ehe Bureau of the Census provide some indica- tion of commutation in and out of the metropolitan area. The bulk of this movement is to and from the New Jersey portion of the region, but there is substantial travel to and from Fairfield County, connecticut as weLl. rn 1960, a total of L97,o0o daily in-commuters were identified and about 58,OO0 persons who left the SMSA for jobs eLsewhere, or a net inward movement of about l39,OOO each day. Detai 1s f or each of the nine counties in the SMSA are sllovrn in table I. ,NEW NEW YORK METROPOLITAN REGION OUTCHESS PUTNAT' ORANGE co N E C rt CUr j," YO K € e- FAIRFIELD YTESTGHESTER ? ROOKLAND louN0 I PA SSA ro tstaNo \ LONG D t I EERGEN N t TORRIS I I t $JFFOL( I , ES x t I ,t -'f NASSAU I R l, OUEEilS F' t 1...r\-.,g t{ roil KlraaS' - --- --L SOTERSET ilIIODLESEX o5rorc20?1 50 ATLANTrc OCEAN SCALE IN IiILES TIONTIOUTH 2 Economy of the Area CharacLer The Region The Large 22-county area was selected a.s a study area bt'the Regional Plan Association, because it is an economic unit in manY respec ts .
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