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Consumer and Retail CONSUMER AND RETAIL INDUSTRY UPDATE │ SEPTEMBER 2015 www.harriswilliams.com Investment banking services are provided by Harris Williams LLC, a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Harris Williams & Co. is a trade name under which Harris Williams LLC and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd conduct business. CONSUMER AND RETAIL INDUSTRY UPDATE │ SEPTEMBER 2015 HARRIS WILLIAMS & CO. CONSUMER UPDATE GROUP OVERVIEW HW&CO.’S RECENT INDUSTRY OBSERVATIONS Harris Williams & Co. is a leading advisor to the Consumer market. Our The HW&Co. Consumer group did not experience the “August M&A lull” this year as significant experience covers a broad the team continues to be very busy executing a number deals that are expected to range of end markets, industries, and close by year end or shortly thereafter. Perhaps more interesting, we spoke with a business models. This particular report large and increasing number of business owners interested in a near term liquidity focuses on trends and metrics in the following areas: event. Nothing like a little bit of public market volatility to remind owners that the existing white hot M&A market will not remain forever. The tradeshow circuit has also . Consumer Durables been active with recent visits to Outdoor Retailer, Super Zoo, and Kind + Jugend. This . Consumer Electronics month we highlight our observations from Outdoor Retailer and the broader trends in . Consumer Services the outdoor and lifestyle sector. Footwear, Apparel, and Accessories . Franchise Platforms Recent HW&Co. Outdoor and Lifestyle Transactions . Internet Retail . Home Furnishings . Household Goods a portfolio company of a portfolio company of a portfolio company of a portfolio company of . Infant and Juvenile Products has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by Jewelry, Gifts, and Collectibles has been acquired by . has acquired has been acquired by . Lawn, Garden, and Pet Products and Services . Omni / Multi-Channel Brands . Outdoor and Lifestyle . Personal Care Products Outdoor Retailer Summer Market represents the largest . Specialty and Mass outdoor product tradeshow in the World that largely caters to Merchant Retailing the specialty retailer. This year’s event was very well attended and featured over 1600 brands, almost one-quarter of which were new to Outdoor Retailer for the first time. CONTACTS John Neuner Managing Director Key Observations [email protected] +1 (804) 915-0125 Functional Fashion – It used to be that most technical apparel brands were primarily Corey Benjamin focused on function without as much focus on current fashion trends. This is Director [email protected] changing rapidly with lifestyle brands such as Patagonia and Prana designing +1 (804) 932-1342 products that are equally as likely to be worn at a trendy lunch spot in the city as they are on the trail or yoga studio. The newest fabrics are often rugged and highly Ryan Budlong Director technical, but also soft, shaped, and wrinkle-free to increase versatility. Brands that [email protected] can consistently stay fashion forward will benefit greatly from this trend as the +1 (415) 217-3409 continuously evolving fashion landscape helps support greater consumer repurchase Brent Spiller rates. Director [email protected] Online Purchasing – Virtually all brands that we spoke with at the show spoke of how +1 (804) 915-0183 rapidly the online sales channel was growing. Whether products are being sold via Matt Conaty the brand’s own website, Amazon, or through online specialty channels like Vice President backcountry.com (recently acquired by TSG Consumer Partners), consumers are [email protected] increasingly turning to online marketplaces for product purchases. This trend is the +1 (415) 217-3423 result of many factors, including significantly greater impact of social media and Chip Duggins peer reviews on purchasing behavior, ability for brands to control brand image and Vice President achieve greater product margin on products sold direct to consumer, and the [email protected] +1 (804) 932-1340 Millennials-led purchasing behavior that increasingly shuns brick and mortar retail. www.harriswilliams.com PAGE | 1 CONSUMER AND RETAIL INDUSTRY UPDATE │ SEPTEMBER 2015 HARRIS WILLIAMS & CO. CONSUMER UPDATE HW&CO’S RECENT OUTDOOR & LIFESTYLE INDUSTRY OBSERVATIONS (CONTINUED) Wearable Technology – Following a broader consumer trend, outdoor enthusiasts increasingly want the ability to measure performance during activity participation. Traditional outdoor wearable technology players like Garmin and Suunto continue to innovate and provide additional and easier to use features in smaller packages. What is more interesting is the increasing proliferation of mobile apps that are compatible across different hardware platforms (e.g., iPhone and Android phones) that are comparatively cheap and easy to use. Good examples of this trend is the continued growth of Strava and Under Armour’s recent announcement that it has formed a partnership with Taiwanese mobile communications company HTC. White Hot M&A Market – Both strategic and financial buyers at the show lamented the continued lack of opportunities at “reasonable valuations”. It’s true, we have seen valuations for outdoor and lifestyle assets vastly increase beginning in 2014. In addition to just being a strong overall M&A market, buyers have been attracted to a category that is growing faster than most other segments of the economy and the proven ability of outdoor & lifestyle assets to perform in diverse economic environments. Sellers have continued to be in the driver’s seat for high quality assets and we do not expect this dynamic to change anytime soon. OUTDOOR & LIFESTYLE TEV / EBITDA (2011 – 2015 YTD)1 14.0x 12.0x 11.5x 10.5x 10.0x 9.1x 8.7x 8.5x 8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1) Proprietary HW&Co. data. PAGE | 2 CONSUMER AND RETAIL INDUSTRY UPDATE │ SEPTEMBER 2015 PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW KEY TRADING STATISTICS (DETAIL BEGINS ON PAGE 7) Median TEV/ Median TEV/ Number of Median Enterprise Change in Stock Price Sector LTM Multiples Forward Mulitples Companies Value ($ M) 3 mos. 12 mos. Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA Consumer Products & Services Apparel & Footwear 24 $3,383 (6.3%) 8.9% 1.8x 12.3x 1.7x 11.1x Consumer Durables 6 6,018 (9.0%) (1.2%) 0.9x 9.6x 0.9x 7.3x Consumer Services and Retail Franchisors 7 5,052 (0.6%) 11.0% 1.9x 12.1x 1.8x 10.2x Home & Office Furniture & Furnishings 10 1,650 (4.9%) 22.6% 0.9x 10.9x 0.9x 8.6x Household Products 5 16,420 0.8% 20.5% 3.5x 14.2x 3.5x 13.5x Housewares 10 3,248 (6.0%) 13.3% 1.4x 13.3x 1.5x 9.8x Infant & Juvenile 12 908 (7.6%) 2.8% 0.7x 10.4x 0.6x 8.4x Lawn, Garden, and Pet 11 1,808 (3.4%) (10.6%) 1.6x 12.4x 1.6x 10.8x Outdoor & Lifestyle 20 966 (7.1%) 4.3% 1.6x 11.6x 1.4x 9.5x Personal Care Products 13 3,553 (12.2%) 0.5% 1.5x 10.7x 1.4x 10.8x Retail Apparel & Footwear Retail 31 1,514 (9.7%) (6.8%) 0.7x 6.8x 0.6x 6.4x Department Chains 8 6,180 (15.7%) (12.5%) 0.7x 7.1x 0.6x 6.8x Discount Stores & Mass Merchants 14 23,271 (6.0%) 13.1% 0.7x 11.1x 0.7x 10.0x Furniture & Furnishings Retailers 14 1,560 (9.2%) 7.2% 0.9x 8.1x 0.9x 8.4x Internet Retail 12 3,886 (11.8%) 9.0% 2.3x 21.1x 2.5x 13.9x Specialty & Other Retail 15 4,769 (12.6%) 6.7% 0.8x 7.7x 0.8x 7.1x Consumer Products & Services 118 $3,316 (6.1%) 6.6% 1.5x 11.9x 1.4x 10.0x Retail 94 $4,327 (10.7%) 6.9% 0.8x 7.9x 0.7x 7.8x Consumer & Retail Index 212 $3,468 (7.4%) 6.9% 1.2x 11.0x 1.1x 9.7x PUBLIC COMPANY SECTOR PERFORMANCE (12-MONTH % CHANGE IN STOCK PRICE) Home & Office Furniture & Furnishings Household Products Housewares Discount Stores & Mass Merchants Consumer Services and Retail Franchisors Internet Retail Apparel & Footwear Furniture & Furnishings Retailers Consumer & Retail Index Specialty & Other Retail Outdoor & Lifestyle Infant & Juvenile Personal Care Products S&P 500 Consumer Durables Apparel & Footwear Retail Lawn, Garden, and Pet Department Chains (20.0%) (10.0%) 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% PAGE | 3 CONSUMER AND RETAIL INDUSTRY UPDATE │ SEPTEMBER 2015 PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW CONSUMER AND RETAIL INDUSTRY STOCK PERFORMANCE 250 225 200 175 150 Index 125 100 75 50 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Goods Index Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Services S&P 500 Index RECENT EQUITY OFFERINGS Transaction Gross Proceeds Close Date Filing Date Issuer Ticker Type ($ M) Underwriter(s) 08/11/15 08/10/15 Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH Follow-On $1,180.6 Goldman, Sachs & Co. 08/10/15 08/10/15 Bright Horizons Family Solutions, Inc. BFAM Follow-On 183.2 Barclays Capital Inc. 08/06/15 06/22/15 Planet Fitness, Inc. PLNT IPO 202.0 JP Morgan, BAML, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, others 08/05/15 08/04/15 GNC Holdings Inc GNC Convertible 250.0 JP Morgan 07/31/15 07/31/15 Boot Barn Holdings Inc BOOT Follow-On 170.4 JP Morgan, Piper Jaffray, Jefferies 07/30/15 02/11/15 Xcel Brands, Inc. XELB Follow-On 15.1 Wunderlich Securities, Inc.
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