Hudson Valley Mall Loan, the Third Largest Mortgage Securitized in CFCRE
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20 April 2015 Fixed Income Research http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics FOR INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT USE ONLY CMBS Loans in the News Securitized Products Americas Research Analysts Large 2011 loan sent to special servicing Roger Lehman CFCRE 2011-C1 +1 212 325 2123 [email protected] The Hudson Valley Mall loan, the third largest mortgage securitized in CFCRE Sylvain Jousseaume, CFA 2011-C1, has been sent to special servicing, according to the remittance reports +1 212 325 1356 released last Friday. The loan totals $50.1 million and accounts for 8.6% of the [email protected] deal. The loan is the largest post crisis mortgage currently with the special Serif Ustun, CFA servicer. +1 212 538 4582 [email protected] The mortgage is backed by a regional mall, in Kingston, New York. The mall totals approximately 765k square feet and, at the time of securitization, had seven anchors with 68 additional tenants. The table below shows the anchor information, when the loan was securitized. Exhibit 1: Hudson Valley Mall anchor tenants as of loan securitization UW Annual Base Anchor Tenant NRSF % of NRSF UW Base Rent Rent Sales PSF * Occ Cost * Lease Expiration Target 126,000 16.5% 2.20 27,7004 $333 1.1 Jan-16 Macy's 120,814 15.8% 1.75 212,000 $108 5.9 Jan-17 Sears 110,862 14.5% 2.75 304,871 $116 5.1 Sep-14 J.C. Penney 67,578 8.8% 3.55 239,902 $118 7.1 Oct-12 Regal Cinemas 41,776 5.5% 12.55 524,289 $248,515 25.9 Apr-12 Dick's Sporting Goods 34,443 4.5% 8.60 296,210 $171 9.9 Oct-16 Best Buy 32,001 4.2% 13.00 416,013 $906 2.1 Jan-16 * Sales PSF figures and occupancy cost are based on 2010 sales data for all tenants who report sales and have been in occupancy since January 2009. Occupancy Cost is calculated based on UW Annual Base Rent plus estimated contractual reimbursements divided by sales. Source: Credit Suisse, deal documents The performance at the mall has quickly deteriorated. The underwritten DSCR was 1.49x, based on net cash flow and an occupancy (as of March 2011) of 93.7%. The DSCR fell steadily from the end of 2011 and for 2014 was reported at 0.99x, even though the occupancy was 95%. The loan was moved to the watchlist, last October, due to the decline in the DSCR. In January, the mall was dealt another blow when JCP announced it was closing their store at this location, along with 38 other underperforming stores. The remittance report shows that the lease maturity on the JCPenney space, is October 2017 but the company plans to vacate at the end of this month. The just released servicing notes indicate that the property’s performance problems do not stop there. Since mid-January, six tenants have closed and the vacancy rate has risen to 35%, as of April. An additional 17% of the space is operating under modified lease terms or is subject to a month-to-month lease. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 20 April 2015 Furthermore, the servicing notes indicate that problems may continue. The leases on an additional 18% of the space is set to roll over the next year or have provisions that would allow the tenant to vacate, if sales fail to improve. The borrower has requested funds from the cash trap to maintain operations at the mall, and that has triggered the immediate move to the special servicer. The cause of the recent swift decline in occupancy is hard to peg but Ulster county has been in an economic decline, from its heyday. An article, from the end of last year, in the Daily Freeman, indicates that the decline in the area’s working population has been a contributing factor to the mall’s deteriorating performance. The departure of IBM, years ago, a major employer in the area, has left the entire county struggling, according to the mall’s general manager, and that has resulted in lower foot traffic at the property. The article notes that new tenants that have come to the mall have not lasted long and longtime tenants, have left. The article also indicates the mall’s management has contemplated turning portions of the property into a multiuse building that could include such things as a bowling alley, library, gym or even college classrooms. The Hudson Valley Mall loan is the largest 2.0/3.0 loan to be sent to the special servicer. Ridgeview Apartments ($50.0 million and 2.6% of DBUBS 2011-LC2A) had been sent to the special servicer in August 2012, for non-compliance with loan covenants. A modification was granted in the middle of 2013 and the loan was returned to the master servicer. That loan has since been defeased. Also 520 Eighth Avenue ($99.8 million and 7.8% of COMM 2012-CR2) had been 30-days delinquent but that was for a single month, in November 2012. A full list of recently securitized loans with credit issues, as of the March remittance reports, can be found here. The list will be updated soon to reflect the April remittance reports. Another large GG10 loan to defease GSMS 2007-GG10 A new $215 million loan is being made on the Harbor Point Apartments, according to Commercial Real Estate Direct. The new Freddie Mac loan on the 1,200-plus unit apartments, in Boston, totals $215 million. We have recently seen another large loan, Park La Brea, pay off following a new Freddie Mac loan. The property currently backs a $156.7 million loan in GSMS 2007-GG10 and accounts for 3.1% of the deal. The loan is not set to mature until July 2017 and is subject to defeasance until three months prior to then. The property is performing well and carried a 1.5x DSCR as of September 2014, when it was reported as 98% occupied. The deal currently has six other loans that have been defeased, totaling 7.3% of the collateral including 9200 Sunset Boulevard ($135.0 million and 2.7%), which we recently highlighted. On the other end of the spectrum, we also recently discussed the appraisal of 400 Atlantic ($265 million and 5.3% of the deal) which was just appraised at $155.0 million and caused a bit of stir in the CMBS market last week. CMBS Loans in the News 2 20 April 2015 Recent publications We provide below a links to some of our recent CMBS publications. Date published Loans in the News Apr-15 Another Sears JV – this time with Simon (COMM 2012-CR3, JPMCC 2011-C3 and UBSBB 2012-C3) One South Wacker selling for $345 million (WFRBS 2013-C11, WFRBS 2013-C12) Grandeville on Saxon sells from REO (WBCMT 2006-C24) Ridgmar Mall adding a new tenant (COMM 2014-UBS5) Preliminary Q1 2015 CRE fundamentals Apr-14 The Belnord liquidated at only a small loss (JPMCC 2006-LDP9) Apr-09 Midtown Plaza reportedly under contract for $95 million (LBUBS 2006-C7) Sahara Pavilion North and others liquidated from deal (MLCFC 2006-4) Several loans to defease after refinancing in new deal (BACM 2006-1, WBCMT 2006-C23, GSMS 2010-C1 and MSBAM 2015-C22) Harden Ranch Plaza ready to defease (WBCMT 2006-C27) Plaza Evergreen Park update (CSMC 2006-C4) Stoneview Point, part of REO loan, sells for $16.6 million (MSC 2006-HQ8) Watchlisted Montclair on the Park trades for $18 million (WFRBS 2012- C6) Willow Springs Apartments selling from REO (MLCFC 2007-7) Latitude 33 Townhomes sells for $58 million (FREMF 2014-KF03/FHMS KF03) Update on new issue conduit metrics Apr-02 Sears announces real estate plans One and Two Securities Centre selling from REO (CGCMT 2006-C5) Madison At River Sound sells for $58 million (FREMF 2010-K5 / FHMS K005) Wells Fargo extends lease at One Orlando Center (LBCMT 2007-C3) Office Depot/OfficeMax announce more closures (LBUBS 2006-C4) Multifamily backing modified loan sells (CGCMT 2006-C4) Carlsbad Corporate Plaza REO selling for $16.4 million (MLCFC 2007-7) Kimco buying remaining interest in Montgomery Plaza (COMM 2012-CR2) March Credit Update Mar-19 Refresh on Columbia Center mod (MSC 2007-HQ12) Willis Tower (FKA Sears Tower) selling for $1.3 billion (various) 9200 Sunset Boulevard approaching defeasance (GSMS 2007-GG10) Quick Belnord update (JPMCC 2007-LDP9) Barrington Mill apartments sells for $58 million (FREMF 2011-K702 / FHMS K702) Bi-Lo closings deal second blow to two CMBS loans (CD 2007-CD4 and DBUBS 2011-LC2A) Farms at Cool Springs sells for nearly $82 million (FRMF 2011-K704 / FHMS K704) Circuit City Distribution Center leads to defeasance (WBCMT 2007-C33) March remit highlights Mar-12 Belnord mod template updated (JPMCC 2006-LDP9) Simon makes bid for Macerich Sale of Airport Square 15 confirmed and other GG9 notes Partial defeasance for Dividend Capital Portfolio (WFCM 2010-C1) Westin Fort Lauderdale heading for a mod, not foreclosure (CWCI 2007-C2) Stake in 590 Madison is close to trading (GCCFC 2007-GG9) Fisher and Kahn Building heading to auction (GCCFC 2005-GG5) An update of ARAs as a loss estimator CMBS Loans in the News 3 GLOBAL FIXED INCOME AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Ric Deverell Head of Global Fixed Income and Economic Research +1 212 538 8964 [email protected] GLOBAL SECURITIZED PRODUCTS RESEARCH Roger Lehman Head of Global Securitized Products Research +1 212 325 2123 [email protected] RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGES CMBS Mahesh Swaminathan Roger Lehman Group Head Group Head +1 212 325 8789 +1 212 325 2123 [email protected] [email protected] AGENCY MBS NON-AGENCY MBS Qumber Hassan Marc Firestein Serif Ustun, CFA Sylvain Jousseaume, CFA +1 212 538 4988 +1 212 325 4379 +1 212 538 4582 +1 212 325 1356 [email protected]