French Regulation School, Social Structures of Accumulation and Post-Keynesian Approaches Compared
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Causes and Remedies for Japan's Long-Lasting Recession
ADBI Working Paper Series Causes and Remedies for Japan’s Long-Lasting Recession: Lessons for the People’s Republic of China Naoyuki Yoshino and Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary No. 554 December 2015 Asian Development Bank Institute Naoyuki Yoshino is Dean and CEO of the Asian Development Bank Institute. Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary is Assistant Professor of Economics at Keio University, Tokyo and a research assistant to the Dean of the Asian Development Bank Institute. The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of ADBI, ADB, its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms. Working papers are subject to formal revision and correction before they are finalized and considered published. The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series; the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI’s working papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion. ADBI encourages readers to post their comments on the main page for each working paper (given in the citation below). Some working papers may develop into other forms of publication. Suggested citation: Yoshino, N., and F. Taghizadeh-Hesary. 2015. Causes and Remedies for Japan’s Long- Lasting Recession: Lessons for the People’s Republic of China. ADBI Working Paper 554. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. -
The US Economy Since the Crisis: Slow Recovery and Secular Stagnation*
The US economy since the crisis: slow recovery and secular stagnation* Robert A. Blecker Professor of Economics, American University, Washington, DC 20016, USA Revised, March 2016 Abstract: The US economy has experienced a slowdown in its long-term growth and job creation that predates the Great Recession. The stagnation of output growth stems mainly from the depressing effects of rising inequality on aggregate demand, while both increased inequality and the delinkage of employment from output have their roots in profound structural changes to the US industrial structure and international position. Stagnation tendencies were temporarily offset by debt-financed household spending before the financial crisis, after which households became more financially constrained. Meanwhile, fiscal policy has shifted toward austerity while business investment has failed to keep up with the boom in corporate profits in spite of low interest rates. Slower US growth in turn exacerbates the global slowdown as it implies smaller injections of demand into global export markets. Keywords: US economy, secular stagnation, jobless recovery, financial crisis, Great Recession JEL codes: E20, E32, O51 *An earlier version of this paper was presented at the session on ‘Varieties of Stagnation? Europe, Japan and the US’, Conference on ‘The Spectre of Stagnation? Europe in the World Economy’, FMM/IMK/Hans Böckler Foundation, Berlin, Germany, 23 October 2015. Contact email for author: [email protected]. 1 INTRODUCTION The recovery from the Great Recession of 2008–9 has been the slowest and longest of any cyclical upturn in the US economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This slow and prolonged recovery was partly a result of the severity of the financial crisis that provoked the recession and the need to repair balance sheets in its aftermath (Koo 2013) as well as inadequate policy responses that failed to provide sufficient stimulus. -
How Secular Is the Current Economic Stagnation?
How secular is the current economic stagnation? Maria Roubtsova ∗ September 30, 2016 Abstract From the burst of the dotcom bubble in 2000, until the global financial crisis that started in August 2007, the global economy was growing. During that phase, macroe- conomics went through an era of general optimism around the idea of having reached a great moderation, with high steady growth and low stable inflation. Central bankers thought they managed to dampen the economic cycles. This era came to an end fol- lowing the meltdown which started with the global financial crisis of 2007. And as among economic agents, macroeconomists’ general state of mind went from optimism to pessimism. Almost ten years since the beginning of the crisis, growth is not back to its pre-crisis trends. Therefore, macroeconomists are debating the notion of a secular stagnation. Is the economy on a long-term stagnation trend, if so, for what reasons, and how to address this situation? This paper offers a critical review of the debates among macroeconomists around this notion of secular stagnation, a concept which was invented by Alvin Hansen following the global economic crisis of the 1930s, and was brought back into the public debate largely by Lawrence Summers since the end of 2013. This literature review starts with a brief synthesis of the original debate about secular stagnation, launched by Hansen in 1938, and ended in the mid-1950s, since these debates inspired contemporary theorists. The second part highlights the main elements of neoclassical explanations for secular stagnation. The third part focuses on the Minskian idea of the end of a debt super-cycle. -
Post-Keynesian Economics
History and Methods of Post- Keynesian Macroeconomics Marc Lavoie University of Ottawa Outline • 1A. We set post-Keynesian economics within a set of multiple heterodox schools of thought, in opposition to mainstream schools. • 1B. We identify the main features (presuppositions) of heterodoxy, contrasting them to those of orthodoxy. • 2. We go over a brief history of post-Keynesian economics, in particular its founding institutional moments. • 3. We identify the additional features that characterize post- Keynesian economics relative to closely-related heterodox schools. • 4. We delineate the various streams of post-Keynesian economics: Fundamentalism, Kaleckian, Kaldorian, Sraffian, Institutionalist. • 5. We discuss the evolution of post-Keynesian economics, and some of its important works over the last 40 years. • 6. We mention some of the debates that have rocked post- Keynesian economics. PART I Heterodox schools Heterodox vs Orthodox economics •NON-ORTHODOX • ORTHODOX PARADIGM PARADIGM • DOMINANT PARADIGM • HETERODOX PARADIGM • THE MAINSTREAM • POST-CLASSICAL PARADIGM • NEOCLASSICAL ECONOMICS • RADICAL POLITICAL ECONOMY • REVIVAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY Macro- economics Heterodox Neoclassical authors KEYNES school Cambridge Old Marxists Monetarists Keynesians Keynesians Radicals French Post- New New Regulation Keynesians Keynesians Classicals School Orthodox vs Heterodox economics • Post-Keynesian economics is one of many different heterodox schools of economics. • Heterodox economists are dissenters in economics. • Dissent is a broader -
Hodgson Pour
Revue de la régulation Capitalisme, Institutions, Pouvoirs , n°2, 2008 Fostering Variety in Economics. Entretien avec Geoffrey Hodgson Agnès Labrousse, Julien Vercueil RR. : Although they are not new in economics, evolutionary and institutional approaches have attracted a growing interest since the 1980s. How do you explain that? Geoffrey Hodgson : When I started working on institutional and evolutionary ideas in the early 1980s, I felt almost a lone voice among economists. Now the situation is very different. There are several reasons for the rise in interest in institutional and evolutionary ideas. Until the 1970s, much of the challenge to mainstream ideas was in macroeconomics, reflecting the influence of Keynesian and Marxian approaches. With some exceptions, such as the work of Herbert Simon, orthodox micro-theory faced less opposition. To a significant degree, the rise of institutional, evolutionary and behavioural approaches reflects the growing development of alternative theories in the microeconomic arena. These became significant in the 1980s, notably with the work of Richard Nelson, Sidney Winter and Oliver Williamson. By the 1990s, some of these critical movements had had a major impact on mainstream approaches, and others became more prominent among heterodox economists. The new institutionalists Ronald Coase and Douglass North were awarded Nobel Prizes in 1991 and 1993. The various forms of institutional and evolutionary thought tackle important questions concerning institutions and economic development that were relatively neglected from the 1950s to the 1970s. RR. : Could you present the core propositions of your institutional and evolutionary economics? GH. : Both ‘institutional economics’ and ‘evolutionary economics’ are very broad churches. There are as many important differences within both the original and new institutional economics as there are between them. -
Macro-Economics of Balance-Sheet Problems and the Liquidity Trap
Contents Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................ 4 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 2 The IS/MP–AD/AS model ........................................................................................................................ 9 2.1 The IS/MP model ............................................................................................................................................ 9 2.2 Aggregate demand: the AD-curve ........................................................................................................ 13 2.3 Aggregate supply: the AS-curve ............................................................................................................ 16 2.4 The AD/AS model ........................................................................................................................................ 17 3 Economic recovery after a demand shock with balance-sheet problems and at the zero lower bound .................................................................................................................................................. 18 3.1 A demand shock under normal conditions without balance-sheet problems ................... 18 3.2 A demand shock under normal conditions, with balance-sheet problems ......................... 19 3.3 -
Models of the Developmental State
Models of the developmental state Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira Abstract This paper seeks to understand the developmental state and its historical role in industrial revolutions and afterwards. First, the developmental state is defined as an alternative to the liberal state. Second, it is argued that industrial revolutions have always taken place within the framework of a developmental state. Third, four models of developmental states are defined according to the point in time at which the industrial revolution took place and the central or peripheral character of the country. Fourth, the paper describes how the state withdraws partially from the economy after the industrial revolution, but the developmental state continues to have a major role in directing industrial policy and in conducting an active macroeconomic policy. Keywords Public administration, economic planning, macroeconomics, liberalism, nationalism, economic policy, economic development JEL classification O10, O11, O19 Author Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira is an Emeritus Professor with the Department of Economics of the Sao Paulo School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Brazil. Email: [email protected]. 36 CEPAL Review N° 128 • August 2019 I. Introduction In the 1950s, Brazilian political scientists and economists identified “developmentalism” as a set of political ideas and economic strategies that drove Brazil’s rapid industrialization and underpinned the coalition of social classes identified with national development. Hélio Jaguaribe (1962, p. 208) stated in the early 1960s that “the core thesis of developmentalism is that the promotion of economic development and the consolidation of nationality stand as two correlated aspects of a single emancipatory process”. Through “national developmentalism”, which would become the established term for the country’s development strategy, Brazilian society was successfully overcoming the patrimonial state that characterized its politics until 1930. -
Degrowth, Green Growth, A- Growth and Post-Growth: the Debate on Ways Forward from Our Growth Addiction an Annotated Bibliography
LEAP Research Report No. 57 Degrowth, green growth, a- growth and post-growth: The debate on ways forward from our growth addiction An annotated bibliography Lin Roberts Jocelyn Henderson with students of ERST636 1 Degrowth, green growth, a-growth and post-growth: The debate on ways forward from our growth addiction Lin Roberts Jocelyn Henderson with students of ERST636 2013 -2020 Land Environment and People Research Report No. 57 2020 978-0-86476-464-5 (Print) 978-0-86476-465-2 (PDF) 1172-0859 (Print) 1172-0891 (PDF) Lincoln University, Canterbury, New Zealand 2 Degrowth, green growth, a-growth and post-growth: The debate on ways forward from our growth addiction Introduction It is widely recognised that averting catastrophic climate change and ecological disaster requires society to relinquish the current growth-focused economic system. However, what this change might include and how it can be implemented is less clear. Different solutions have been envisioned, with advocates for variants of “green growth,” “post-growth” or “de-growth” all presenting possible options for a new economic and social system that can exist within planetary boundaries. This annotated bibliography includes a range of articles which engage with and critique these concepts, consider how they might work in practice and propose strategies for overcoming the obstacles to implementation. The papers were selected by Lincoln University postgraduate students taking the course ERST636: Aspects of Sustainability: an international perspective, in preparation for a class debate of the moot “Green growth is simply designed to perpetuate current unsustainable practices and divert attention away from the need for more fundamental change”. -
The Great Depression As a Historical Problem
Upjohn Institute Press The Great Depression as a Historical Problem Michael A. Bernstein University of California, San Diego Chapter 3 (pp. 63-94) in: The Economics of the Great Depression Mark Wheeler, ed. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 1998 DOI: 10.17848/9780585322049.ch3 Copyright ©1998. W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. All rights reserved. 3 The Great Depression as a Historical Problem Michael A. Bernstein University of California, San Diego It is now over a half-century since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the most severe and protracted economic crisis in American his tory. To this day, there exists no general agreement about its causes, although there tends to be a consensus about its consequences. Those who at the time argued that the Depression was symptomatic of a pro found weakness in the mechanisms of capitalism were only briefly heard. After World War II, their views appeared hysterical and exag gerated, as the industrialized nations (the United States most prominent among them) sustained dramatic rates of growth and as the economics profession became increasingly preoccupied with the development of Keynesian theory and the management of the mixed economy. As a consequence, the economic slump of the inter-war period came to be viewed as a policy problem rather than as an outgrowth of fundamental tendencies in capitalist development. Within that new context, a debate persisted for a few years, but it too eventually subsided. The presump tion was that the Great Depression could never be repeated owing to the increasing sophistication of economic analysis and policy formula tion. -
Abstract Geographies of Neoliberal Regulation And
ABSTRACT GEOGRAPHIES OF NEOLIBERAL REGULATION AND THE EVERYDAY URBAN EXPERIENCE: A CASE STUDY OF OVER-THE-RHINE, CINCINNATI Jean-Paul David Addie This thesis analyses the impacts of neoliberal urbanism through conducting a qualitative case study of the inner-city neighbourhood of Over-the-Rhine, Cincinnati. Drawing upon the geographic concept of 'actually existing' neoliberalism, combined with in-depth interviews with neighbourhood organisations, community advocacy groups and residents in Over-the-Rhine, I explore the complex, often contradictory and dialectical relationships between neoliberal regulatory-institutional restructuring, the production of urban space, and the practices of everyday life. Played out against a background of racial tension and civil unrest, the creation of a new, neoliberal institutional landscape in Over-the-Rhine politically and economically disenfranchises the most marginalised neighbourhood inhabitants through re-articulating urban and political space, and re-imagining the ideological form and function of the inner city and the urban poor. I assert the significance of place-based studies to explore the place-specific articulations of neoliberal urbanism and in doing so, present directions for future research. GEOGRAPHIES OF NEOLIBERAL REGULATION AND THE EVERYDAY URBAN EXPERIENCE: A CASE STUDY OF OVER-THE-RHINE, CINCINNATI A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Miami University in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Department of Geography by Jean-Paul David Addie Miami University -
From Long-Term Growth to Secular Stagnation. a Theoretical Comparison Between Régulation Theory, Marxist Approaches and Present Mainstream Interpretations
FROM LONG-TERM GROWTH TO SECULAR STAGNATION. A THEORETICAL COMPARISON BETWEEN RÉGULATION THEORY, MARXIST APPROACHES AND PRESENT MAINSTREAM INTERPRETATIONS Giovanni Scarano ISSN 2279-6916 Working papers (Dipartimento di Economia Università degli studi Roma Tre) (online) Working Paper n° 241, 2018 I Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia svolgono la funzione di divulgare tempestivamente, in forma definitiva o provvisoria, i risultati di ricerche scientifiche originali. La loro pubblicazione è soggetta all'approvazione del Comitato Scientifico. Per ciascuna pubblicazione vengono soddisfatti gli obblighi previsti dall'art. l del D.L.L. 31.8.1945, n. 660 e successive modifiche. Copie della presente pubblicazione possono essere richieste alla Redazione. esemplare fuori commercio ai sensi della legge 14 aprile 2004 n.106 REDAZIONE: Dipartimento di Economia Università degli Studi Roma Tre Via Silvio D'Amico, 77 - 00145 Roma Tel. 0039-06-57335655 fax 0039-06-57335771 E-mail: [email protected] http://dipeco.uniroma3.it FROM LONG-TERM GROWTH TO SECULAR STAGNATION. A THEORETICAL COMPARISON BETWEEN RÉGULATION THEORY, MARXIST APPROACHES AND PRESENT MAINSTREAM INTERPRETATIONS Giovanni Scarano Comitato Scientifico: Fabrizio De Filippis Francesco Giuli Anna Giunta Paolo Lazzara Loretta Mastroeni Silvia Terzi FROM LONG-TERM GROWTH TO SECULAR STAGNATION. A THEORETICAL COMPARISON BETWEEN RÉGULATION THEORY, MARXIST APPROACHES AND PRESENT MAINSTREAM INTERPRETATIONS Giovanni Scarano* Roma Tre University Department of Economics [email protected] Abstract Since 2013 various eminent mainstream economists have proposed reviving the doctrine of “secular stagnation”. According to these authors, the only explanation for this new trend could be a negative Wicksellian natural rate of interest, produced by an excess of saving over investment at any positive interest rate. -
Stagnation Traps
Stagnation Traps Gianluca Benigno and Luca Fornaro∗ January 2015 Preliminary, comments welcome Abstract We provide a Keynesian growth theory in which pessimistic expectations can lead to permanent, or very persistent, slumps characterized by unemployment and weak growth. We refer to these episodes as stagnation traps, because they consist in the joint occurrence of a liquidity and a growth trap. In a stagnation trap, the central bank is unable to restore full employment because weak growth pushes the interest rate against the zero lower bound, while growth is weak because low aggregate demand results in low profits, limiting firms’ investment in innovation. Policies aiming at restoring growth can successfully lead the economy out of a stagnation trap, thus rationalizing the notion of job creating growth. Keywords: Secular Stagnation, Liquidity Traps, Growth Traps, Endogenous Growth, Sunspots. ∗Benigno: London School of Economics, CEPR, and Centre for Macroeconomics; [email protected]. Fornaro: CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE and CEPR; [email protected]. We would like to thank Pierpaolo Benigno, Javier Bianchi, Jordi Gali, Alwyn Young and seminar participants at the HECER/Bank of Finland, University of St. Andrews, Federal Reserve Board and IMF, and participants at the RIDGE workshop on Financial Crises for useful comments. We thank Julia Faltermeier, Andresa Lagerborg and Martin Wolf for excellent research assistance. This research has been supported by ESRC grant ES/I024174/1 and by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant ECO2011-23192). 1 Introduction Can insufficient aggregate demand lead to economic stagnation, i.e. a protracted period of low growth and high unemployment? Economists have been concerned with this question at least since the Great Depression, but recently interest in this topic has reemerged motivated by the two decades-long slump affecting Japan since the early 1990s, as well as by the slow recoveries characterizing the US and the Euro area in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.