THE ART OF CHINA’S THREE WARFARES: CHINESE PHILOSOPHICAL INFLUENCES BELINDA LEI GOVT-474 PROFESSOR KARBER SPRING 2015 Lei2 Abstract The overall purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of China’s modern warfare strategy through the lens of Chinese ancient philosophies, with the aim of understanding China’s motives and behaviors as it steadily gains more influence in the global arena. Unlike the U.S., China has no systemic international relations theory to dictate the viewpoints of the Chinese Communist Party. And, as China continues to rise both economically and militarily while the U.S. is arguably in a decline,1 a need for understanding China on a deep, psychological level became important. For this reason, as I began my own studies on Chinese warfare in the Fall of 2014, I realized the lack of understanding and information about modern Chinese military strategy. What began as an essay about China’s Three Warfares transformed itself into an analysis of how different Chinese philosophies have influenced its development. Now, in the Spring of 2015, I have added a more in- depth analysis of the connections between Chinese philosophies and the Three Warfares, including a new section about the I-Ching, and updated sections about the influence of the Warring States Period and current events related to the Three Warfares. From the I-Ching to Confucianism that has driven China’s strategy in the 21st century, my hope is that my research will be able to contribute to the growing number of information about China, and explain China’s actions in recent years. 1 Edward Luce, Time to Start Thinking: America in the Age of Descent, New York: Atlantic Monthly Press ;, 2012. In his book, Edward Luce argues that America is slowly losing its power in the global arena and how Lei3 Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................... 5-7 Background ............................................................................................................................. The Warring States Period ............................................................................................................. The I-Ching “Book of Changes” .................................................................................................... Taoism ..................................................................................................................................................... The I-Ching and Taosim .................................................................................................................. Confucianism ................................................................................................... 4-5 Confucian Thought .................................................................................................................... 5-6 Confucianism and I-Ching ........................................................................................................ 5-6 Confucianism and China’s Strategic Culture ................................................................... 5-6 Confucianism and Soft Power ..................................................................................................... 8 Guanxi and Yizhan ................................................................................................. 9-10 Confucianism and Politics ............................................................................................................ Sun Tzu and The Art of War .......................................................................... 10 Sun Tzu and the Tao of Power ......................................................................................... 11-12 Sun Tzu and the I-Ching ..................................................................................................... 11-12 The Art of War and its Enduring Influence ................................................................ 12-13 Sun Tzu vs. Confucius .............................................................................. 14-16 Confucian Influences on Sun-Tzu ........................................................................................... Sun-Tzu vs. Confucius Similarities ......................................................................................... Sun-Tzu vs. Confucius Differences ......................................................................................... The Three Warfares ................................................................................ 16-17 Psychological Warfare ..................................................................................................... 17-18 Legal Warfare ..................................................................................................................... 18-20 Media Warfare .................................................................................................................... 20-22 The Three Warfares Case Study: Anti-Secession Law ........................................... 22-23 The Three Warfares Case Study: Taiwan Re-unification ................................................ Lei4 Dangers of the Three Warfares ..................................................................................... 23-24 Confucius and the Three Warfares ..................................................... 24-26 Legal and Media Warfare and Confucian Soft Power ......................................... 26-27 Confucius as a Media Warfare Weapon ..................................................................... 27-28 Sun Tzu and the Three Warfares ......................................................... 29-30 Sun Tzu’s Influence ............................................................................................................. 30-31 Psychological Warfare and Deception ............................................................................... 32 Moving Forward ........................................................................................ 32-33 Conclusion .................................................................................................. 33-34 Figures Figure 1: Influence of Pre-Qin Philosophies .................................................................................. 6 Figure 2: Map of the Warring States of China .............................................................................. 8 Figure 3: Early Confucianism, 200 ................................................................................................. 14 Figure 4: Chinese Guanxi ..................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 5: The Five Factors of the Art of War ............................................................................. 23 Figure 6: Sixth “Contention” Hexagram, I-Ching ...................................................................... 26 Figure 7: Seventh “The Army” Hexagram, I-Ching ................................................................... 27 Figure 8: Sun Tzu vs. Confucius ...................................................................................................... 33 Figure 9: China’s Three Warfares .................................................................................................... 36 Figure 10: China’s Nine-Dash U-shaped Line in the South China Sea ............................. 39 Figure 11: South China Sea “Map” ................................................................................................. 47 Figure 12: China’s Three Warfares: Connections to Confucianism .................................. 51 Figure 13: China’s Three Warfares: Connections to Sun-Tzu ............................................. 56 Lei5 Introduction Sun Tzu once wrote that “all warfare is based on deception.” China has certainly taken this quote to heart. In 2003, the Central Military Commission Committee of the Chinese Communist Party began endorsing what is now known as the “Three Warfares.”2 The Three Warfares, otherwise known as political warfare, consists of psychological warfare (using different methods to destroy psychological resistance), media warfare (using the media to change public opinion), and legal warfare (using the law to gain support from the domestic and international community).3 Since its reveal, information about the Three Warfares has become increasingly more complex and concerning. China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, the second country, next to the US, with the most GDP, and the country with the largest army in the world. Coupled with reports of China engaging in economic warfare against the U.S., the idea of China launching legal, psychological, and media warfare is extremely alarming.4 The U.S. needs to take action against China’s war strategy. In order to form an effective counter strategy, the U.S. needs to fully understand the motives, ideas, and concepts that are driving the Three Warfare strategy through its Pre-Qin philosophers, in particular, Sun Tzu and Confucius. Without complete comprehension and knowledge of the Three Warfares and its development, the US sets itself at a precarious stage of losing a war—without ever realizing it. In this essay, I will analyze how Confucius and Sun Tzu’s ideas have influenced the development of China’s Three Warfares. I will also focus on how the I-Ching impacted Taoism and thus, Confucianism and Sun Tzu’s ideas. Since the 2 Stefan Halper, China: The Three Warfares. University oF Cambridge,