MANAGING CONFLICT IN TROUBLED WATERS: THE CASE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA By Nalanda Roy A dissertation submitted to the Graduate School-Newark Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey in partial fulfillment of requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Program in Global Affairs Written under the direction of Professor Yale H. Ferguson and approved by _______________________________ _______________________________ ______________________________ _______________________________ Newark, New Jersey May 2013 Copyright page 2013 Nalanda Roy ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Copyright 2013 by Nalanda Roy, [email protected]. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form without the permission from the copyright owner. ABSTRACT Managing Conflict In Troubled Waters: The Case of the South China Sea By NALANDA ROY Dissertation Director: Dr. Yale H. Ferguson The South China Sea has recently become the locus of disputes that have the potential of escalating into serious international conflicts. It is a critical region among the disputing countries because of its geographic position in major oceanic routes used by crude oil tankers from the Persian Gulf to Asia and for transporting goods to the rest of the world. It is important, as well, for its promising offshore oil and gas reserves, other undersea resources, and rich marine life. This dissertation addresses three questions: First, what factors increase the probability of conflicts in the South China Sea region? Second, what is the role of ASEAN in managing conflicts in the SCS region? And third, what is the likely utility of other conflict prevention mechanisms in the SCS region? Following a careful review of existing literature relevant to the South China Sea disputes, the study assesses the effectiveness of UNCLOS as an international legal regime in addressing them. It also discusses each of the disputing parties, their individual stakes in specific disputes, and the long history and current status of the disputes. Special attention is paid to the involvement of China as well as “external” powers like the United States and India. The dissertation additionally weighs ASEAN’s role in the development and functioning of Asia-Pacific multilateralism, and its limited capacity to create a sense of regional community and address SCS disputes effectively. ASEAN’s main role has ii been one of reiterating the norm of peaceful resolution of conflicts and engaging the parties in successive conferences, workshops, and supposed confidence-building measures. Although this study does suggest a few more such measures that might help to moderate tensions, it ends on a pessimistic note about the prospect of future armed conflicts in the South China Sea. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS In preparing this thesis I am indebted to many people both in the United States and India whose encouragement and support helped me to write this dissertation, and it is a great pleasure for me to thank them all. First, I would like to thank the Division of Global Affairs for giving me the opportunity to attend Rutgers University and for providing full financial support. I owe my special and deepest gratitude to my advisor, Dr. Yale H. Ferguson. Without his dedication, inspiration, and persistent voice, this dissertation could not have been accomplished. I would also like to thank him for his guidance throughout my Doctoral Degree education and for giving me the chance to attend Rutgers University. My special thanks also go to Drs. Richard Langhorne, Alex Hinton and Gabriela Kutting, who all aided in the development of this thesis. I would like to give special thanks to Drs. Ralph Emmers, Jan Nederveen Pieterse, Rumel Dahiya, Amitav Acharya, David Rosenberg, and Stein Tonnesson for taking the time to respond to my inquiries concerning my dissertation. Without their insight, many of the topics and issues explored in the literature review would have been either over-looked or underdeveloped. I am deeply thankful and indebted to my family. My sweet little daughter Yashaswini and my husband, Mr. Chandrashis Bhowmick, have provided constant support and encouragement to achieve my goal. I am also indebted to my parents and my brother, whose silent support has boosted my morale during the course of my work. This dissertation is dedicated to my entire family. Finally, I would like to thank, Wendy Godek and all my cohorts. Without their support, the production of this dissertation would have been a less pleasant experience. I hope this research will provide some inspiration to other scholars in their future studies. iv Dedicated to my beloved God Source: www.dollsofindia.com/bal_gopal_PZ22_l.jpg v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS V ACRONYMS VIII LIST OF TABLES XII LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS XII CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE ON THE SOUTH CHINA SEA 18 CHAPTER 3: STRATEGIC AND ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF SOUTH CHINA SEA 51 CHAPTER 4: CONFLICTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA 89 CHAPTER 5: INVOLVEMENT OF THE DRAGON, THE EAGLE, AND THE ELEPHANT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IMBROGLIO 124 CHAPTER 6: ASEAN AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTES 164 CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION 181 BIBLIOGRAPHY 189 APPENDIX 1: INTERVIEW QUESTIONS 213 APPENDIX 2: EEZ Rules under Part V of UNCLOS 214 CURRICULUM VITAE 224 vi Acronyms A2/AD Anti-access/Area denial ACCP ASEAN-China Cooperation Fund ADMM ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting ADMM Plus ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus ADR Alternative Dispute Resolution AEW&C Airborne Early Warning and Control AFP Armed Forces of the Philippines AMM ASEAN Ministers Meeting APEC Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation APT ASEAN Plus Three ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASC ASEAN Security Community ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN+1 ASEAN, China ASEAN+3 ASEAN, China, Japan, South Korea ASEAN- ISIS ASEAN Institute of Strategic and International Studies ASEAM- PMC ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference BP British Petroleum BTU British Thermal Units CAFTA China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement CBM Confidence Building Measure CIDA Canadian International Development Agency CINCPAC Commander-in- Chief of U.S. forces in the Pacific CLCS United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf CMC Central Military Commission CNOOC China’s state-run China National Offshore Oil Company CNP China’s comprehensive national power CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation CSUA Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts CS Continental Shelf CSCAP Council for Security cooperation in the Asia Pacific CSI Container Security Initiative CS21 A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Sea Power DFA Department of Foreign Affairs vii DOC 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the SCS DOD U.S. Department of Defense DRV Democratic Republic of Vietnam EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone EOR Enhanced Oil Recovery EU European Union FPDA Five Power Defense Arrangements FTA Free Trade Area GATS General Agreement on Trade and Services GEF Global Environment Facility GIS Geographic Information System GNP Gross National Production HPA Hanoi plan of Action HSC High Seas Convention IMOs International Maritime Organization IOR Indian Ocean Region IR International Relations ISM CT-TC Inter-sessional Meeting on Counter- Terrorism and Transnational Crime ISDS Institute of Strategic and Development Studies ITLOS International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea JCG Japanese Coast Guard ICJ International Court of Justice JDZ Joint Development Zones JMSU Joint Maritime Seismic Undertaking JMZs Joint Management Zones ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization IEA International Energy Agency IGO Intergovernmental Organizations IL International Law IMB International Maritime Bureau IMO International Maritime Organization INCSEA Incident at Sea IOR Indian Ocean Region IPCC Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change ISC Information Sharing Center ISPS International Ship and Port Security Code ITLOS International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea JDZ Joint Development Zone JMSU Joint Maritime Seismic Undertaking KM Kilometers LNG Liquefied Natural Gas LOSC Law of the Sea Convention viii MMCA Military Maritime Consultative Agreement MSC Maritime Safety Committee MSR Marine Scientific Research NAM Non-aligned Movement NIEs Newly Industrialized Economies NISCS National Institute for the South China Sea Studies NM Nautical Miles NOCs National Oil Companies NPCSD North Pacific Co-operative Security Dialogue NSR Northern Sea Route OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development ONGC Indian Oil and Natural Gas Corporation OVL ONGC Videsh PDR Lao People’s Democratic Republic PEMSEA Partnerships in Environmental Management for the Seas of East Asia PLA People’s Liberation Army PLAN People’s Liberation Army Navy PNOC Philippine National Oil Company POK Pakistan occupied Kashmir PPP Public-Private Partnership PSI Proliferation Security Initiative RECAAP Regional Cooperation Agreement on Anti- Piracy in Asia RIMPAC Rim of the Pacific Exercise RMSI Regional Maritime Security Initiative ROC Republic of China (Taiwan) SAP Strategic Action Program SAR Search and Rescue SDFs Self-defense Forces SKM Square Kilometers SMA Spratly Management Authority SEANFWZ Southeast Asia Nuclear Free Weapons Zone SPR Strategic Petroleum Reserve SRV Socialist Republic of Vietnam SCS South China Sea SEACAT Southeast Asia Cooperation against Terrorism SIGINT Signals Intelligence SLOCS Sea Lanes of Communication SCS South China Sea ix TAC Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast