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Nicky Henderson … INDEX Trainer Statistics Page Nicky Henderson ….........................…....................................................................................... 2 Paul Nicholls …......…................................................................................................................... 3 Alan King ….…..................................…....................................................................................... 4 Jonjo O'Neill .........….........................…....................................................................................... 5 Nigel Twiston-Davies …..................…..................................................................................... 6 Willie Mullins ….......................................................................................................................... 7 Irish Trainers ….......................................................................................................................... 8 Miscellaneous A Lay A Race …............................................................................................................................. 9 Track Last Ran At….................................................................................................................... 10 Cheltenham as a Pointer…........................................................................................................ 11 3 X 3 3 Aintree Races Influenced by Cheltenham ..................................................................... 12 3 Festival Mini-Systems …......................................................................................................... 12 3 Crazy Aintree Handicap Stats ….......................................................................................... 13 3 X 3 3 Amazing Festival Lay Stats …............................................................................................... 14 3 Important Race Trials (Non Cheltenham) …................................................................. 14 3 Handicappers to Note from Cheltenham ........................................................................ 15 Specific Race Types The Handicaps …................................…....................................................................................... 16 Grade 1 & 2 Hurdles …............................................................................................................... 18 Grade 1 & 2 Chases …........................................................................................................…....... 19 The Grand National Best 3 Trends Horses for the National …............................................................................ 20 1 AINTREE FESTIVAL TRAINERS Going back to 2007 there are 5 current UK trainers to have had 8 or more winners at the Grand National Meeting. Top of the pile is..... NICKY HENDERSON The reigning Champion Trainer Nicky Henderson has trained 30 winners from his 208 runners at the Aintree Festival since 2007 for a strike rate of 14%. You would have made £17.64 to £1 level stakes on all his runners. A further 22 of his runners were placed which gives him a fairly ordinary 25% place strike rate. He's managed at least 2 winners at every Festival since 2010 including an incredible 6 (from 27 runners) in 2012. He drew a blank from his 16 runners in 2009 (1 placed) which is the only time he has failed to hit the board in the last decade. Wins Places Runners Win LSP/L Handicaps 7 9 97 +8.00 Grade 1 12 8 63 -19.41 Grade 2 9 4 36 +9.55 Grade 3 4 4 50 -6.00 Hurdles 16 13 109 -6.57 Chases 12 7 76 +6.21 Bumper 2 2 23 +18.00 TOP JOCKEY Barry Gerraghty has ridden 17 of the 30 winners from 73 rides (23%) for a LSP of +£9.90 – Sam Waley-Cohen has ridden 1 winner (+1 place) from 9 rides for a LSP of +2.00 pts – Andrew Tinker has ridden 2 winners (+4 places) from his 21 rides. LSP +26.00 – Jockeys claiming 3lbs on his runners are 2 wins from 12 rides. 5 and 7lb claimers are 0 from 16 rides (2 places) POSITIVES + • 28 of his 30 winners had run in the previous 45 days. • His record with 6yo's since 2007 is 15 wins from 52 runners (29%) and a LSP +82.14 • 23 of his 30 winners had their last run at Cheltenham (118 such runners) • 25 of his 30 winners finished in the top 5 last time out. NEGATIVES - • All 11 of his Grand National runners have finished unplaced • All 10 of his runners without an official rating finished unplaced • All 8 maidens he has run have finished unplaced. • All 8 of his runners wearing blinkers have finished unplaced 2 PAUL NICHOLLS He may be one of the top trainers in the country and have the second largest number of winners at this meeting but his overall record at the Aintree Festival could definitely look better. His 23 winners have come from 256 runners (a low 9% strike rate) and show a massive Level Stakes Loss of -123.10 He drew a blank from 23 runners last year which broke a 13 year run of having trained at least 1 winner. His best year came in 2008 when 5 of his 28 runners were successful. Wins Places Runners Win LSP/L Handicaps 4 13 124 -71.00 Grade 1 14 17 83 -21.93 Grade 2 5 10 38 -19.17 Grade 3 2 5 76 -36.50 Hurdles 11 19 100 -47.31 Chases 12 21 148 -67.79 Bumper 0 1 8 -8.00 TOP JOCKEY Ruby Walsh has ridden 20 of the 22 Nicholls winners from 133 rides for the stable. As he no longer rides for the stable it may be worth looking at the records of a few other jockeys........ • Sam Twiston-Davies is 2 wins and 5 places from 31 rides and show a LSL of -11.37 • Nick Schofield's 30 rides have provided 0 wins and 4 places. • All 26 of his horses ridden by claiming jockeys (1-7lb) have been beaten. POSITIVES + • All 23 of his winners had raced at least twice in their NH careers • 19 of his 23 winners were aged 5-9yo. His record with 4yo's is 3 wins from 25 runners • 22 of his 23 winners finished top 8 last time out (exception fell) • 21 of his 23 winners returned 8/1 or shorter • 16 of his 23 winners had their last run at Cheltenham (from 153 such runners) NEGATIVES - • All 49 of his runners in races worth less than £30,001 have been beaten. • All 31 of his runners that finished the course worse than 8th last run were beaten here • All 18 of his runners that carried less than 10-08 have been beaten • All 18 of his runners carrying more than 11-10 have been beaten (2 placed) • All 16 of his horses with an official rating less than 130 have been beaten • All 16 of his runners that had their last run outside a 15-120 day period got beat • All 7 of his runners that had gone 11 or more runs since their last win were unplaced • All 3 of his female runners were beaten • He's had just 1 winner from 48 runners that carried 10-12 or less • He's had just 1 winner from 26 runners that were aged 10 or over 3 ALAN KING He had a pretty consistent record at the Aintree Festival up until the last two seasons with at least 1 winner at 7 of the previous 8 meetings. Unfortunately all 11 of his runners were beaten in 2015 and all 4 in 2016 finished unplaced. His overall record now stands at 13 winners and 18 places from 96 runners which is still a fairly impressive 13.5% win strike rate. Backing his runners blindly would have made you a LSP of +6.38 Wins Places Runners Win LSP/L Handicaps 2 6 25 0.00 Grade 1 9 4 34 +11.38 Grade 2 1 4 21 -15.00 Grade 3 1 4 16 -8.00 Hurdles 7 8 48 +3.75 Chases 5 4 23 +1.63 Bumper 1 6 25 +1.00 TOP JOCKEY Robert Thornton and Tony McCoy rode 11 of the 13 Alan King winners Wayne Hutchinson (2) is the only other jockeys to have won for the stable since 2007. Claiming jockeys are 0 from 5 for the King stable POSITIVES + • All 13 of his winners were aged 8 or under • All 13 of his winners had their last run in the previous 16-45 day period • All 13 of his winners had raced at least 3 times in their career • All 13 of his winners had their last run in a Listed race or better • 12 of his 13 winners had finished in the top 4 on their last run • 10 of his 13 winners had their last run at the Cheltenham Festival. These came from 48 runners (21%) and show a LSP of +12.88. A further 10 of these runners were placed. • 8 of his 13 winners came on the Thursday of the meeting (from 34 such runners) and show a LSP of +20.50 NEGATIVES - • All 36 of his runners that were up in class by 2 or more bands were beaten • All 25 of his horses without a win in their last 3 races were beaten. • All 11 of his runners at 3m1f or further have been beaten • All 8 of his runners aged 9yo and over finished unplaced. • All 6 of his runners that were still maidens finished unplaced • His record on the Saturday of the meeting is 1 wins and 4 places from 29 runners • Just 1 of his 31 runners rated 0-134 has managed to win. 4 JONJO O'NEILL Jonjo O'Neill has managed 10 winners at the Aintree Festival in the last 10 years from his 93 runners. That's a pretty decent strike rate of 11% and they would have shown a LSP of 18.50pts. BUT.....that doesn't tell the whole story as his last 55 runners at the last 6 Aintree Festivals (2011-16) have produced just two winners, Holywell at 7/2 in 2014 and Eastlake at 22/1 in 2016 Wins Places Runners Win LSP/L Handicaps 7 11 62 +33.50 Grade 1 2 5 13 +0.50 Grade 2 1 4 12 -9.50 Grade 3 3 7 40 +5.00 Hurdles 4 8 33 +18.50 Chases 6 13 54 +6.00 Bumper 0 0 6 -6.00 TOP JOCKEY Tony McCoy rode 7 of the stables 10 winners before retirement • Noel Fehily has ridden 2 winners from 8 rides and Barry Geraghty is 1 win from 2 rides • All 9 jockeys that rode for the stable claiming an allowance (3-10lbs) were beaten POSITIVES + • All of his 10 winners were aged 6-10yo • All of his 10 winners were over a distance of 2m4f or further • All of his 10 winners carried 10-04 or more. • All of his 10 winners were rated 125 or higher • All of his 10 winners had raced at least 6 times in their career. • All of his 10 winners had won at least 2 races in their career • 8 of his 10 winners had their last start in a Listed or better race.
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