INDEX Trainer Statistics Page

Nicky Henderson …...... …...... 2 Paul Nicholls …...... …...... 3 Alan King ….…...... …...... 4 Jonjo O'Neill ...... …...... …...... 5 Nigel Twiston-Davies …...... …...... 6 …...... 7 Irish Trainers …...... 8 Miscellaneous A Lay A Race …...... 9 Track Last Ran At…...... 10 as a Pointer…...... 11 3 X 3 3 Aintree Races Influenced by Cheltenham ...... 12 3 Festival Mini-Systems …...... 12 3 Crazy Aintree Handicap Stats …...... 13

3 X 3 3 Amazing Festival Lay Stats …...... 14 3 Important Race Trials (Non Cheltenham) …...... 14 3 Handicappers to Note from Cheltenham ...... 15

Specific Race Types The Handicaps …...... …...... 16 Grade 1 & 2 Hurdles …...... 18 Grade 1 & 2 Chases …...... …...... 19

The Best 3 Trends Horses for the National …...... 20

1 AINTREE FESTIVAL TRAINERS

Going back to 2007 there are 5 current UK trainers to have had 8 or more winners at the Grand National Meeting. Top of the pile is.....

NICKY HENDERSON

The reigning Champion Trainer Nicky Henderson has trained 30 winners from his 208 runners at the Aintree Festival since 2007 for a strike rate of 14%. You would have made £17.64 to £1 level stakes on all his runners. A further 22 of his runners were placed which gives him a fairly ordinary 25% place strike rate.

He's managed at least 2 winners at every Festival since 2010 including an incredible 6 (from 27 runners) in 2012. He drew a blank from his 16 runners in 2009 (1 placed) which is the only time he has failed to hit the board in the last decade.

Wins Places Runners Win LSP/L Handicaps 7 9 97 +8.00 Grade 1 12 8 63 -19.41 Grade 2 9 4 36 +9.55 Grade 3 4 4 50 -6.00 Hurdles 16 13 109 -6.57 Chases 12 7 76 +6.21 Bumper 2 2 23 +18.00

TOP

Barry Gerraghty has ridden 17 of the 30 winners from 73 rides (23%) for a LSP of +£9.90 – Sam Waley-Cohen has ridden 1 winner (+1 place) from 9 rides for a LSP of +2.00 pts – Andrew Tinker has ridden 2 winners (+4 places) from his 21 rides. LSP +26.00 – Jockeys claiming 3lbs on his runners are 2 wins from 12 rides. 5 and 7lb claimers are 0 from 16 rides (2 places)

POSITIVES +

• 28 of his 30 winners had run in the previous 45 days. • His record with 6yo's since 2007 is 15 wins from 52 runners (29%) and a LSP +82.14 • 23 of his 30 winners had their last run at Cheltenham (118 such runners) • 25 of his 30 winners finished in the top 5 last time out.

NEGATIVES -

• All 11 of his Grand National runners have finished unplaced • All 10 of his runners without an official rating finished unplaced • All 8 maidens he has run have finished unplaced. • All 8 of his runners wearing blinkers have finished unplaced

2 PAUL NICHOLLS

He may be one of the top trainers in the country and have the second largest number of winners at this meeting but his overall record at the Aintree Festival could definitely look better. His 23 winners have come from 256 runners (a low 9% strike rate) and show a massive Level Stakes Loss of -123.10

He drew a blank from 23 runners last year which broke a 13 year run of having trained at least 1 winner. His best year came in 2008 when 5 of his 28 runners were successful.

Wins Places Runners Win LSP/L Handicaps 4 13 124 -71.00 Grade 1 14 17 83 -21.93 Grade 2 5 10 38 -19.17 Grade 3 2 5 76 -36.50 Hurdles 11 19 100 -47.31 Chases 12 21 148 -67.79 Bumper 0 1 8 -8.00

TOP JOCKEY

Ruby Walsh has ridden 20 of the 22 Nicholls winners from 133 rides for the stable. As he no longer rides for the stable it may be worth looking at the records of a few other jockeys...... • Sam Twiston-Davies is 2 wins and 5 places from 31 rides and show a LSL of -11.37 • Nick Schofield's 30 rides have provided 0 wins and 4 places. • All 26 of his horses ridden by claiming jockeys (1-7lb) have been beaten.

POSITIVES +

• All 23 of his winners had raced at least twice in their NH careers • 19 of his 23 winners were aged 5-9yo. His record with 4yo's is 3 wins from 25 runners • 22 of his 23 winners finished top 8 last time out (exception fell) • 21 of his 23 winners returned 8/1 or shorter • 16 of his 23 winners had their last run at Cheltenham (from 153 such runners)

NEGATIVES -

• All 49 of his runners in races worth less than £30,001 have been beaten. • All 31 of his runners that finished the course worse than 8th last run were beaten here • All 18 of his runners that carried less than 10-08 have been beaten • All 18 of his runners carrying more than 11-10 have been beaten (2 placed) • All 16 of his horses with an official rating less than 130 have been beaten • All 16 of his runners that had their last run outside a 15-120 day period got beat • All 7 of his runners that had gone 11 or more runs since their last win were unplaced • All 3 of his female runners were beaten • He's had just 1 winner from 48 runners that carried 10-12 or less • He's had just 1 winner from 26 runners that were aged 10 or over

3 ALAN KING

He had a pretty consistent record at the Aintree Festival up until the last two seasons with at least 1 winner at 7 of the previous 8 meetings. Unfortunately all 11 of his runners were beaten in 2015 and all 4 in 2016 finished unplaced. His overall record now stands at 13 winners and 18 places from 96 runners which is still a fairly impressive 13.5% win strike rate. Backing his runners blindly would have made you a LSP of +6.38

Wins Places Runners Win LSP/L Handicaps 2 6 25 0.00 Grade 1 9 4 34 +11.38 Grade 2 1 4 21 -15.00 Grade 3 1 4 16 -8.00 Hurdles 7 8 48 +3.75 Chases 5 4 23 +1.63 Bumper 1 6 25 +1.00

TOP JOCKEY

Robert Thornton and Tony McCoy rode 11 of the 13 Alan King winners

Wayne Hutchinson (2) is the only other jockeys to have won for the stable since 2007.

Claiming jockeys are 0 from 5 for the King stable

POSITIVES +

• All 13 of his winners were aged 8 or under • All 13 of his winners had their last run in the previous 16-45 day period • All 13 of his winners had raced at least 3 times in their career • All 13 of his winners had their last run in a Listed race or better • 12 of his 13 winners had finished in the top 4 on their last run • 10 of his 13 winners had their last run at the . These came from 48 runners (21%) and show a LSP of +12.88. A further 10 of these runners were placed. • 8 of his 13 winners came on the Thursday of the meeting (from 34 such runners) and show a LSP of +20.50

NEGATIVES -

• All 36 of his runners that were up in class by 2 or more bands were beaten • All 25 of his horses without a win in their last 3 races were beaten. • All 11 of his runners at 3m1f or further have been beaten • All 8 of his runners aged 9yo and over finished unplaced. • All 6 of his runners that were still maidens finished unplaced • His record on the Saturday of the meeting is 1 wins and 4 places from 29 runners • Just 1 of his 31 runners rated 0-134 has managed to win.

4 JONJO O'NEILL

Jonjo O'Neill has managed 10 winners at the Aintree Festival in the last 10 years from his 93 runners. That's a pretty decent strike rate of 11% and they would have shown a LSP of 18.50pts. BUT.....that doesn't tell the whole story as his last 55 runners at the last 6 Aintree Festivals (2011-16) have produced just two winners, Holywell at 7/2 in 2014 and Eastlake at 22/1 in 2016

Wins Places Runners Win LSP/L Handicaps 7 11 62 +33.50 Grade 1 2 5 13 +0.50 Grade 2 1 4 12 -9.50 Grade 3 3 7 40 +5.00 Hurdles 4 8 33 +18.50 Chases 6 13 54 +6.00 Bumper 0 0 6 -6.00

TOP JOCKEY

Tony McCoy rode 7 of the stables 10 winners before retirement

• has ridden 2 winners from 8 rides and is 1 win from 2 rides • All 9 jockeys that rode for the stable claiming an allowance (3-10lbs) were beaten

POSITIVES +

• All of his 10 winners were aged 6-10yo • All of his 10 winners were over a distance of 2m4f or further • All of his 10 winners carried 10-04 or more. • All of his 10 winners were rated 125 or higher • All of his 10 winners had raced at least 6 times in their career. • All of his 10 winners had won at least 2 races in their career • 8 of his 10 winners had their last start in a Listed or better race. • 7 of his 10 winners had their last run at Cheltenham (from 57 such runners) • 7 of his 10 winners came on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting at a strike rate of 13.5% and show a LSP of +33pts • 5 of his 10 winners had finished in the top 2 on their last start.

NEGATIVES -

• All 12 of his runners upped in class by 4 or more class bands were beaten (1 placed) • All 12 of his runners with fewer than 4 career starts were beaten (1 placed) • All 9 of his runners racing over a distance of less than 2m4f finished unplaced • All 6 of his NH flat runners have finished unplaced. • All 4 of his horses without an official rating finished unplaced

5 NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES

He might enjoy success at the track outside of the Festival but since 2007 his record during the April meeting is pretty poor with 8 winners from 113 runners at a strike rate of only 7%. They also show a level stakes loss of -£43.06.

He had a good run between 2008-2012 where he managed one winner at each of the Festivals as well as another 4 places but he suffered a shocker in 2013 when just 1 of his 12 runners even managed to make the frame. It was a similar story in 2007 when he had 1 place from 11. 2014 was his best year, in the last decade, when he had 2 winners and 3 places from 9 runners.

Wins Places Runners Win LSP/L Handicaps 1 5 69 -60.00 Grade 1 4 5 28 +4.94 Grade 2 2 1 11 +13.00 Grade 3 0 4 46 -46.00 Hurdles 4 5 40 -7.06 Chases 2 6 68 -55.00 Bumper 2 0 5 +19.00

TOP JOCKEY

Paddy Brennan has ridden 3 of the 8 Twiston-Davies winners from 31 rides. LSL of -0.50 Sam Twiston-Davies is 3 winners and 5 places from his 36 rides for his father. Ryan Hatch is 1 win and 1 place from 9 rides for the stable All 9 Claiming jockeys riding for the stable in the last decade have finished unplaced

POSITIVES +

• All 8 of his winners were over a distance of 2m1f – 3m½f • All 8 of his winners had raced in the previous 45 days • 7 of his 8 winners were were within 6lb of the top weight • 7 of his 8 winners had won at least 1 of their last 3 starts. • 7 of his 8 winners were rated 129+ (exception NH flat winner) • 6 of his 8 winners were Irish Bred (from 55 such runners) • 5 of his 8 winners (and 9 places) had their previous start at Cheltenham (75 runners) – 2 exceptions were NH Flat winners NEGATIVES -

• All 52 of his runners that ran in a Grade 2, Grade 3 or Listed race last time got beat • All 46 of his runners in Grade 3 contests were beaten as were all 16 in Listed races • All 23 of his Grand National runners since 2007 have finished unplaced • All 19 of his runners wearing headgear have been beaten (2 placed) • All 11 of his runners that had been rested more than 45 days finished unplaced • All 11 of his runners that Pulled Up last time out got beat (10 finished unplaced) • All 7 of his runners aged 12yo+ have finished unplaced • Only 1 of his 8 winners (+5 places) had their last race in a handicap (64 such runners)

6 IRISH TRAINERS

With the Punchestown Festival on the horizon many of the Irish trainers prefer to keep their horses for that meeting meaning that unlike Cheltenham, where the Irish trainers are out in force, Aintree has a very small number of Irish runners.

WILLIE MULLINS

No trainer epitomises this more than Willie Mullins who, in stark contrast to his Cheltenham exploits, sees Aintree as an afterthought. After Cheltenham he's usually got his eye on the Punchestown Festival for his stable stars and Aintree has to make do with his lesser lights. It was a little different last year as he was chasing the UK Trainers Title but as it's the Irish trainers championship he's chasing this year I'd expect the stables superstars will be kept for Punchestown and we'll see him run his understudies...

Period Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike 2016 34 6 18.00% -0.61 8 41.00% 2015 10 1 10.00% -6 2 30.00% 2014 7 1 14% -1 1 14% 2013 6 0 0% -6 1 17% 2012 7 0 0% -7 1 14% 2011 8 0 0% -8 5 63% 2010 6 0 0% -6 3 50% 2009 6 0 0% -6 2 33% 2008 3 0 0% -3 2 67% 2007 7 0 0% -7 0 0% 2006 3 0 0% -3 1 33% Total 97 8 8.20% -53.61 26 26.80%

There are quite a few places but just 2 winners from 63 runners prior to 2016.

Both of those winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out but surprisingly only 23 of the 63 had done so meaning 40 of Mullins’ runners swerved Cheltenham. So let’s look at the Mullins runners that didn’t go to Cheltenham but got sent to Aintree having previously run elsewhere.

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike 40 0 0.00% -40 10 25.00%

40 losers including 13 last time out winners, 23 that finished top 4 last time out, 24 horses rated 140+ and 17 at 12/1 or shorter.

More proof that his Aintree Festival runners are the Mullins B-Team made up of Cheltenham Festival also rans and those deemed not good enough to warrant a Cheltenham run.

7 IRISH TRAINERS CONTINUED......

GORDON ELLIOT – 6 WINNERS

His six winners from 50 runners show a Level Stakes Profit of +32pts. His Silver Birch won the Grand National in 2007 at 33/1 and he has since trained two other big priced winners Russian War at 16/1 and Steps To Freedom at 12/1 (both in 2011). His 2 runners in 2012, 6 runners in 2013 and 4 runners in 2014 finished B84P0P8P2240 before he had 3 winners and a place from 9 runners in 2015. In 2016 he was 0 from 13 with 3 places.

HENRY DE BROMHEAD – 2 WINNERS

He has a record of 2 wins and 4 places from 17 runners and he shows a LSP of +17.50pts although all 5 of his runners in 2016 were beaten including Sizing John at 11/4.

MOUSE MORRIS – 2 WINNERS

His record of 2 wins and 2 places from just 13 runners reads quite well and he shows a LSP of +25.50pts thanks mainly to the win of

MRS JOHN HARRINGTON – 1 WINNER

Jessica Harrington pops up with a winner every now and again and has had one winners and 3 places from 8 runners since 2007

DESSIE HUGHES (stable now Mrs SANDRA HUGHES) – 1 WINNER

He had an Aintree record to match his poor performance at Cheltenham as his last 36 runners at this Festival produced just 1 winner although 7 were placed. All 6 of his runners in 2011 and again all 6 of his runners in 2012 finished unplaced before Guitar Pete put him back on the Aintree scoresheet at the 2014 meeting. 7 of his 35 losers had been at 8/1 or shorter.

Since taking over the stable Sandra Hughes has had 4 unplaced runners (all in 2015)

TONY MARTIN – 0 WINNER

He's seen all 11 of his runners at the meeting since 2007 finish unplaced including all three in the Grand National.

OTHER IRISH TRAINERS WITH LOSING RECORDS (SINCE 2007)

TRAINER Wins Place Runs 0 2 12 T. TAFFE 0 2 12 E. O'GRADY 0 3 10 T. WALSH 0 1 9

8 A LAY A RACE

BEWARE THESE TYPES OF RUNNERS:

Quite simply these are the types of horses that don't usually win the respective race at the Aintree Festival......

DAY 1

Anniversary 4yo Novice Hurdle – Any horse yet to be placed in Graded company Bowl Chase – Any runner with less than 10 career runs over fences – Any runner with less than 6 career runs over hurdles Fox Hunters Chase – Any horse aged under 9yo Handicap Chase – Any horse without a win at class 3 or above Manifesto Novice Chase – Any horse that didn't run top 5 in a Chase at Cheltenham Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle – Any horse who has raced fewer than 3 times this Season

DAY 2

Top Novice Hurdle – Any horse that has been rested more than 45 days since their last run Mildmay Novice Chase – Any horse that has been rested more than 60 days – Any horse that bypassed Cheltenham Topham Handicap Chase – Any horse with fewer than 3 runs this Season Sefton Novices Hurdle – Any horse placed in the Neptune Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival Handicap Hurdle – Any horse with less than 3 Seasonal starts Mares NH Flat Race – Any horse outside the Top 4 on their last run

DAY 3

Mersey Novices Hurdle – Any horse with more than 7 career hurdle starts Maghull Novices Chase – Any horse aged over 8yo Hurdle – Any horse without a win at Graded level Handicap Chase – Any horse with more than 6 runs already this Season

The Grand National - Any horse without a win at 3 miles or further Any horse without a run in the previous 2 months Any horse without a Class 1 or Class 2 chase win Any horse aged 7yo or any veteran aged 13yo+

Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle – Any horse ridden by a 3lb claimer Champion NH Flat Race – Any horse without a recent Top 2 finish (last two runs)

9 TRACK LAST RAN AT The tracks at which every winner since 2008 had their last start:

Track Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike

Cheltenham 1263 124 10% -231.20 339 27%

Sandown 151 12 8% 69.00 28 19%

Kempton 137 8 6% -43.00 20 15%

Newbury 178 7 4% -78.67 26 15%

Uttoxeter 46 6 13% 199.00 17 37%

Doncaster 109 5 5% -62.00 22 20%

Leopardstown 60 4 7% -9.00 8 13%

Kelso 67 3 4% 66.00 9 13%

Ludlow 50 3 6% 47.00 13 26%

Newcastle 57 3 5% 33.00 12 21%

Chepstow 38 3 8% -6.50 6 16%

Gowran Park 32 2 6% 26.00 7 22%

Carlisle 25 2 8% 86.00 3 12%

Bangor 46 2 4% -21.00 6 13%

Aintree 35 2 6% 3.50 4 11%

Stratford 24 2 8% -2.00 3 13%

Navan 37 2 5% -24.50 7 19%

Haydock 90 2 2% -46.00 11 12%

Towcester 9 1 11% 6.00 1 11%

Bellewstown 1 1 100% 12.00 1 100%

Southwell 25 1 4% -21.50 4 16%

Plumpton 7 1 14% 8.00 1 14%

Huntingdon 46 1 2% -35.00 3 7%

Catterick 27 1 4% -17.00 3 11%

Dundalk 12 1 8% -8.25 3 25%

Newton Abbot 6 1 17% 0.50 1 17%

Fakenham 24 1 4% -9.00 4 17%

Naas 30 1 3% 4.00 6 20%

Fairyhouse 48 1 2% -43.50 6 13%

Warwick 43 1 2% -17.00 3 7%

Wetherby 27 1 4% -1.00 8 30%

Hexham 7 1 14% 2.00 1 14%

Ascot 60 1 2% -57.25 7 12%

Fontwell 28 1 4% -23.50 4 14%

Ayr 28 1 4% -2.00 5 18%

10 THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL AS A POINTER

Since 2008, 2936 horses have competed at the Aintree Festival creating 189 winners and 398 placed horses and 1187 of those runners had their last start at Cheltenham. If we just concentrate on those that last ran at the Festival we can see.....

ALL RUNNERS

1187 horses came to Aintree direct from the Cheltenham Festival and of those 121 won and 208 were placed. That means in the last 10 years: 64% of all Aintree winners had their last run at the Chelt. Festival (from 40% of runners) 52.2% of all Aintree placed horses had their last run at the Cheltenham Festival or 56% of ALL Aintree win and placed horses had their last run at the Cheltenham Festival. SPECIFIC RACES

There have been 114 Grand National runners that had their last run at the Cheltenham Festival since 2007 and only 4 have won (finished 2-3-6-PU). Since 2007, all 6 Cheltenham Festival winners to have run in the Grand National have been beaten (2 placed). 8 of the 30 Grand National places went to horses that had their last run at the Cheltenham Festival. Since 2008, just 3 of the 19 NH Flat races at Aintree were won by horses that had run at Cheltenham last time out. These came from 30 such runners and show a LSL of -£2.50 TOP 3 FINISHERS

• 99 Cheltenham Festival winners have reappeared at Aintree for their next start and of those, 28 have won (28% strike rate) for a LSP of +11.17. A further 28 were placed. • 105 Cheltenham Festival runner-ups have reappeared at Aintree for their next start and of those, 26 won (25% strike rate) for a LSP of +28.54. A further 28 were placed. • 101 Cheltenham Festival 3rd place finishers reappeared at Aintree for their next start and of those, 15 won (15% strike rate) for a LSP of +72.94. A further 23 were placed. 36.5% of all Aintree winners finished Top 3 at Cheltenham on their last start (from just 10% of the runners). They show a LSP of +112.65 HANDICAPS

33 of the 72 handicaps at Aintree have been won by horses having their last start at the Cheltenham Festival (46%). These 33 winners (and 74 places) came from 599 runners. Backing horses with any top 4 finish at the Cheltenham Festival in an Aintree Handicap would have given you 15 winners (+23 places) from 134 runners since 2007 and a LSP of +88.50pts. That's 21% of the handicap winners from just 8% of the runners! AND FINALLY.....

You have to go all the way back to 2006 (and 37 losers) to find the last winner at Aintree who had run at the Cheltenham Festival and had had another run since – Hi Cloy (Melling Chase)

11 3 RACES INFLUENCED BY CHELTENHAM 1) 11 of the 13winners ran in the Stayers Hurdle (all finished Top 5) 2017 STAYERS HURDLE RESULT: 16th March 1ST: NICHOLS CANYON 10/1 2ND: LIL ROCKERFELLER 33/1 3RD: UNOWHATIMEANH' 5/6F

2) MELLING CHASE 14 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham- 9 in Champion Chase / 5 in Ryanair 2017 RYANAIR RESULT: 16th March 1ST UN DE SCAUX 7/4F 2ND SUB LIEUTENANT 8/1 3RD ASO 40/1 2017 QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE RESULT: 15th March 1ST 11/1 2ND FOX NORTON 7/1 3RD SIR VALENTINO 33/1. 3) 4yo ANNIVERSARY HURDLE 14 of the last 15 winners had run in the -10 of the last 12 finished Top 3 2017 TRIUMPH HURDLE RESULT: 17TH March 1ST DEFI DU SEUIL 5/2F 2ND MEGA FORTUNE 7/1 3RD:BAPAUME 10/1. 3 FESTIVAL MINI-SYSTEMS 1) HIGHLY RATED GRADE 1 HORSES (since 2004) Just back the 165+ rated , 6-9yo's running in Grade 1 races at Aintree that completed the course last time out at the Cheltenham Festival. Profitable every year since 2004:

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike Chase 27 12 44% 18.98 7 70.00%

Hurdle 18 11 61.00% 17.67 3 78.00%

2) PETER BOWEN (since 2005) Backing Peter Bowen's runners in races at up to 3 miles that are carrying less than 11-00 and have run in the last 30 days.

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike 20 7 35.00% 105 4 55.00%

3) TOP 2 FINISH AT CHELTENHAM WHEN FANCIED (since 2009) For this system we are looking for any horse that finished in the Top 2 at Cheltenham that was under 3/1 in the betting that day:

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike 18 15 83.00% 10.73 1 89.00%

12 3 CRAZY AINTREE HANDICAP STATS

1) ANY HORSE CARRYING 10-12 IN AN AINTREE HANDICAP

Since 2007 – 0 from 74

All weights from 10-00 to 11-09 have been carried successfully in Festival Handicaps except for the curious exception of 10-12. There have been 74 losers carry this weight since 2007

• 27 of those losers were 12/1 or shorter. 16 of those losers had won last time out

Obviously this is a statistical anomaly and not a hard and fast trend that can be relied upon.

2) HANDICAP HURDLERS THAT FINISHED 2ND LAST TIME OUT

Since 2007 – 0 from 68

Breakdown Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike 2nd 68 0 0.00% -68.00 18 26.47%

Since 2007, every horse that ran in a handicap hurdle at the Aintree Festival having finished runner up last time out has been beaten.

These 68 losers include 3 horses at 4/1 or shorter, 13 at 8/1 or under and 24 at 12/1 or less

4) H'CAPPERS THAT HAD THEIR LAST RUN AT LEOPARDSTOWN

Since 2004 – 0 from 43

Breakdown Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike

Handicap 43 0 0% -43.00 3 7%

Non-Handicap 36 4 11% 15.00 5 14%

Leopardstown may well be the number 1 track for supplying winners to the Cheltenham Festival but when it comes to Aintree it's a track to be wary of especially for handicap runners.

With Leopardstown not staging a meeting between Cheltenham and Aintree it seems safe to assume that all the good horses that ran at Leopardstown last time out were targeted at the Cheltenham Festival.

These 43 handicap losers included......

• All 24 Grand National runners • All 5 hurdlers finished unplaced. All 5 Willie Mullins horses finished unplaced. • 19 horses that finished in the top four last time out (3 last time out winners) • 6 horses at odds of 12/1 or under • 30 horses that last ran in a Grade 1 (all 10 unplaced) or Grade 2 race

13 3 FESTIVAL MINI-SYSTEMS 1) HIGHLY RATED GRADE 1 HORSES (since 2004) Just back the 165+ rated , 6-9yo's running in Grade 1 races at Aintree that completed the course last time out at the Cheltenham Festival. Profitable every year since 2004:

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike Chase 27 12 44% 18.98 7 70.00%

Hurdle 18 11 61.00% 17.67 3 78.00% 2) PETER BOWEN (since 2005) Backing Peter Bowen's runners in races at up to 3 miles that are carrying less than 11-00 and have run in the last 30 days.

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike 20 7 35.00% 105 4 55.00% 3) TOP 2 FINISH AT CHELTENHAM WHEN FANCIED (since 2009) For this system we are looking for any horse that finished in the Top 2 at Cheltenham that was under 3/1 in the betting that day:

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike 18 15 83.00% 10.73 1 89.00% 3 RACE TRIALS (Non Cheltenham) 1) SANDOWN LISTED NH FLAT RACE (MARES ONLY) The Mares Only Bumper race at Aintree has gone to a runner from this race in 3 of the last 6 years (2011/12/14). Those three winners had finished 4th - 3rd - 4th at Sandown. 2017 RESULT: 11th March 1ST: CAP SOLEIL 9/2 2ND: PETICOAT TAILS 7/2 3RD: JUST A THOUGHT 11/1 2) SANDOWN NOVICE HANDICAP HURDLE (2M4F) Since 2007 there have been 6 runners from this race to go directly to the 3 mile handicap on the Saturday of the Aintree meeting and 4 of them have won. 2017 RESULT: 11th March 1ST: MINELLA AWARDS 8/1 2ND: PRIME VENTURE 14/1 3RD: WYLDE MAGIC 10/1 3) DONCASTER BETBRIGHT HANDICAP CHASE (2M 1/2F) Of the 22 horses to have run in the Red Rum Handicap Chase that last raced at Doncaster, 10 of them made the frame. 1 winner and 4 places came from this race 2017 RESULT: 4th March 1ST: SAN BENEDETO 10/3 2ND: KATGARY 13/2 3RD: BRIGHT NEW DAWN 7/2

14 3 CHELTENHAM HORSES FOR THE H'CAPS

1) MISTER MIYAGI (Dan Skelton) – 8yo Hurdler

Form this Season: -3260

A pretty decent novice hurdler last Season with three novice hurdle wins and a 6th placed finish in the Supreme Novices Hurdle to his name. He began this Season with a couple of tough asks when trying to give 4lb, firstly, to Hargam and then to Un Temps Pour Tout but he wasn't beaten far by either of them. He ran no race behind next time out in the Grade 2 at Cheltenham at the beginning of December but was given a break before coming back for the at the Cheltenham Festival. He ran a nice race there without really threatening and having now been dropped 2lb to an attractive mark of 147 looks primed for a good run in something like the opening 2m4f Handicap Hurdle on the Friday of Aintree.

2) HENRI PARRY MORGAN (Peter Bowen) – 9yo Chaser

Form this Season: -0UF020

He proved a very expensive flop for me when finishing last on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival but I reckon I'm in with a very good chance of getting my money back if his trainer should send him to Aintree. Probably the best run of his career came at the meeting last year when he chased home Native River to earn himself a rating of 149. He hasn't run to anywhere near that sort of form in any of his runs since but a revised rating of just 138 (down 4lb since Cheltenham), a return to Aintree and a trainer who has a fantastic record at the meeting leads me to believe we'll see an improved performance next time out.

3) CALIPTO (Venetia Williams) – 7yo Chaser

Form this Season: -6

He finished an excellent 3rd when sent off 7/2 favourite for the 2014 4yo Anniversary Hurdle when with Paul Nicholls. The same trainer guided him through his 4 race novice chase career which saw him win once and finish just behind the 157 rated Garde Le Victoire and 166 rated Fox Norton in the Grade 2 Arkle Trial at Cheltenham. After last Season he switched stables to join Venetia Williams but we didn't see him out again until contesting the Grand Annual Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Despite his long absence from the track, an error three fences out and it being a seriously competitive race he still managed to finish a very creditable 6th of the 24 runners. As an added bonus the handicapper dropped him a 1lb to a very winnable mark of 138. The Red Rum Handicap Chase looks an ideal target should he run at Aintree.

15 AINTREE FESTIVAL HANDICAPS

AGE

Since 2007 no horse aged 12 or over has managed to win a handicap at the Aintree Festival. In all, 54 have tried and failed (3 placed)

There have been seven 11yo winners from 104 runners and they show a LSP of +120pts. All 7 of these veteran winners came in Handicap Chases and were joined by 7 further placed horses from the 95 such runners.

In handicap hurdle races no horse aged 10yo or older has managed to win (from 24 runners) and only two have made the placings. There has been only one 4yo who managed to win a handicap hurdle at the Aintree Festival from the 11 who have tried since 2007.

WEIGHT

Since 2007 there have been 4 horses (from 67 runners) that have managed to win an Aintree Festival handicap carrying less than 10-00 along with 8 who have been placed. None of the 10 runners that carried less than 9-09 made the frame.

All weights from 10-00 to 11-09 have been carried successfully in Festival Handicaps except for the curious exception of 10-12. There have been 74 horses carry this weight and all were beaten. 4 horses have shouldered the maximum weight of 11-12 (from 43 such runners)

OFFICIAL RATINGS

Since 2007 there have been 88 horses run in Aintree Festival handicaps with an official rating of 154 or above and only 2 have won (157 & 160). These two wins have come in the last 5 years and both were in the Grand National.

At the other end of the scale, only 2 horses (from 49 runners) have managed to win an Aintree Festival Handicap with a rating of less than 125.

In handicap chases since 2012 all 56 runners to have been running from a rating of less than 130 have been beaten. If we forget the Grand National, we can see that all 15 handicap chase winners have been rated 131-152. 12 of the 15 came from a ratings band of just 131-143 meaning 80% of the winners came from 55% of the ratings.

In handicap hurdles there have been 7 winners with a rating of more than140 and all have come in the last 5 years. In that time, all 36 runners rated under 130 have been beaten.

All of the 15 handicap hurdle winners at the Aintree Festival since 2012 have been rated 130- 150.

CLAIMING JOCKEYS

Claiming jockeys have won 17 of 72 handicaps run at the Aintree Festival since 2008 (23.6%). 8 came from 114 rides in the 42 Chase events. 9 came from 243 rides in 30 Hurdle events.

16 DAYS SINCE LAST RUN

Only 2 horses in the last 10 years have managed to win a handicap at the Aintree Festival having been off the track for more than 150 days. There have been 62 horses to have tried (a further 5 were placed).

In handicap chases, 40 of the 42 winners had run in the previous 60 days. Just 2 winners from 165 runners managed to defy a break of over 2 months. No handicap chase winner has managed to defy a break of over 165 days since 2007 (24 such losers).

In handicap hurdles just one horse has managed to win having run in the last 15 days (from the 58 to have tried). Just 1 horse has managed to win having been off the track for more than 150 days (from 32 such runners).

INTERESTING HANDICAP FACTS

• All 6 handicap runners sent off at 10/3 or shorter got beat. • Only 18 of the 72 handicap winners had won over the course (Aintree) before. • Irish trainers have won 6 handicaps (261 runners) at the Festival since 2007. • Trainers based in Scotland are 3 from 58 runners • Welsh trainers are 2 from 43.

OVERPERFORMERS

All Handicaps: • 89% of all handicap winners were rated 128-150 (from 82% of the runners) • 68% of all handicap winners finished 2nd - 10th last time out (from 57%) • 60% of all handicap winners had been rested between 16-30 days (from 50%) • 50% of all handicap winners had their last race at Cheltenham (from 39%)

Handicap Hurdles: • 83% of all handicap hurdle winners were aged 6-9yo (from 74% of the runners) • 57% of all handicap hurdle winners finished 1st,3rd or 4th last time out (from 37%) • 53% of all handicap winners had their last race at Cheltenham (from 43%)

Handicap Chases: • 67% of all handicap chase winners last ran in the previous 30 days (from 52% of the runners) • 57% of all handicap chase winners were rated 133-143 (from 44%) • 19% of all handicap chase winners were aged 5 or 6yo (from 6.2%)

HANDICAP SYSTEM FOR AINTREE

FESTIVAL HANDICAPPERS - Back any horse that finished top 4 in a Cheltenham festival handicap last time out that is now rated 137-150. Since 2010 there have been 64 such runners and 11 have won (17% strike rate). These types have shown a profit at 6 of the the last 7 Festivals. They show a Level Stakes Profit of +95.50pts. A further 16 of the runners were placed.

17 GRADE 1 & 2 HURDLE RACES

There have been 634 horses contest 60 Grade 1/2 Hurdles at the Aintree Festival since 2007

INTERESTING STATS

The biggest priced winner of a Grade 1/2 Hurdle race in the last 10 years is 40/1. There have been 120 horses to have run and lose that were 50/1 and above (4 placed).

The oldest winner of a Grade 1/2 Hurdle at the last 10 Cheltenham Festivals was 9yo. Those aged 10 and older are 0 wins and 1 place from 7 runners. 88% of winners were aged 4-7yo. Of all horses with an official rating, none have managed to win from a rating of less than 128 (87 runners rated less than 128). All 35 runners rated less than 124 finished unplaced. 55 of the 60 had their last start in the previous 16-45 day period. No horse has managed to win a Grade 1/2 Hurdle at the last 11 Aintree Festivals having run in the previous 10 days. 12 tried and failed (1 placed). None of the 15 horses who tried, managed to defy a break of more than 120 days to win a Grade 1/2 hurdle. Only 2 horses, from 60 runners, managed to defy a break of more than 60 days. All 13 horses who tried to make the step up from a Class 5 or 6 race to Grade 1/2 Hurdle company at the Aintree Festival have been beaten (1 placed). Interestingly, 7 managed the step up from Class 4 while those from Class 2 and Class 3 could only manage 1 win apiece. There have been 7 winners and 18 placed horses that had their previous start in handicap company (from 128 such runners). 42 of the 60 Grade 1/2 Hurdle winners had their last start at Cheltenham (50% of runners) 55 of the 60 Grade 1/2 Hurdle winners finished Top 5 last time out Irish Bred horses lead the way in Grade 1/2 Hurdles with 23 wins from 300 runners. Next comes French Bred horses with 19 (from 152 runners) and then GB Bred 14 (145). US Bred horses have 2 wins from 16 runners and German Bred horses have two wins from 17 runners. All other countries combined are 0 wins, 0 place from 4 runners.

TRAINERS

Nicky Henderson has had 13 wins (and 7 places) from 56 Grade 1/2 Hurdle runners in the last 10 years. 12 of the 13 had their last start at Cheltenham but all 13 last ran in a Graded race

Paul Nicholls has trained 10 Grade 1/2 hurdle winners from 62 runners at the Festival in the last 10 years. He has also had a further 13 runners make the frame.

Alan King follows with 6 wins and 4 places from 35 runners. 5 of his 6 winners and all 4 placed runners had their last run at Cheltenham. Phillip Hobbs hasn't won a Grade 1/2 Hurdle in the last decade but 7 of his 14 runners have made the frame.

All of David Pipe's 20 runners in Grade 1/2 hurdles have been beaten with 6 being placed. Venetia Williams is 0 from 15 with just 1 place. Willie Mullins is 4 wins and 8 places from 24 runners.

18 GRADE 1 AND 2 CHASE RACES

There have been 351 horses contest 48 Grade 1/2 Chases at the Aintree Festival since 2007

INTERESTING STATS

The biggest priced winner of a Grade 1/2 Chase race in the last 10 years has been 50/1. Only 4 of the 8 odds on favourites have won in that time period.

Unlike Cheltenham, Aintree has had it's fair share of veteran chase winners with the oldest winner of a Grade 1/2 Chase at the last 10 Festivals being 10yo (3 such winners from 19 runners). Those aged 11 and older are 0 wins and 3 places from 15 runners.

Of all the horses with an official rating, none have managed to win a Grade 1/2 Chase from a rating of less than 123. Only 1 from 28 has managed to win from a rating less than 138.

38 of the 48 Grade 1/2 Chase winners had their last start at Cheltenham (67.5% of runners)

39 of the 48 Grade 1/2 Chase winners since 2004 finished top 5 on their last start (26 finished top 2). None of the 18 runners who finished the course 9th or worse last time out managed to win a Grade 1/2 chase (4 were placed). 3 of the 48 winners failed to complete the course last time out (from 50 such runners) but 11 were placed. 41 of the 48 winners had raced in Grade 1 or Grade 2 company on their last start. Only four horses from 71 attempts have managed to win a Grade 1/2 Chase at the last 10 Aintree Festival's having run in a handicap on their previous start (10 were placed). French Bred horses lead the way in Grade 1/2 Chases with 25 wins from 123 runners (20%). Next comes Irish Bred horses with 18 from 162 runners (11%). Then comes GB Bred with just 4 wins from 52 runners. German Bred runners are 1 from 10 (3 placed) with all other countries seeing their collective 4 runners get beat (2 placed).

TRAINERS

Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson lead the way with 9 and 7 Grade 1/2 chase winners respectively but they come from differing numbers of runners. Henderson has managed his tally from just 30 runners whereas it has taken 53 runners for Nicholls to get his 9 wins. Nicholls has had a further 13 runners make the frame whereas it's just 4 for Henderson. All 7 of Henderson's winners were 6-9yo and had finished top 5 at Cheltenham in a Grade 1/2 race last time out. All 8 of Nicholl's winners were aged 5-9yo, had been rested at least 20 days and were 6/1 or shorter in the betting. However, all 6 of his runners at 6/4 or shorter have been beaten.

Alan King is a distant third with four Grade 1/2 Chase winners from his 11 runners. Another two were placed and he shows a LSP of +5.63pts

Trainers to be wary of include Nigel Twiston-Davies who is just 2 places from 9 runners in Grade 1/2 Chases, GL. Moore (0 from 6 all unplaced) and Peter Bowen (1 place from his 6 runners). All 7 of Venetia Williams' runners have finished unplaced.

19 GRAND NATIONAL ANTE-POST

Using the trends and stats contained in this book I have taken a look at the Grand National and come up with my three ante-post recommendations for the race......

UCELLO CONTI (20/1) Basically we need a good jumper with a touch of class, a fair bit of chasing experience and form at around 3 miles or further. Weight is playing less and less of a role in deciding the Grand National these days with 5 of the last 8 winners shouldering 11-00 plus. 9 - 11yo's have dominated the last 15 years as have Irish Bred runners although French Breds are no longer that easy to pass over especially those who have proven their stamina. The one I keep coming back to is a French Bred 9yo who has run two very good races over these unique fences having finished 6th in last year's Grand National and 4th in the Becher Chase last December. He's been running very well in all the big staying chases in Ireland over the last 2 Seasons and, racing from the same mark as last year, I expect him to make a bold bid for the all conquering Gordon Elliott stable.

WOUNDED WARRIOR (66/1) This Irish bred 8yo had some very impressive novice chase form throughout 2015 and early 2016 finishing close up to Don Cossack, Valseur Lido and Don Poli and actually beating 2016 Grand National winner Rule The World by nearly 10 lengths in a Novice Chase. He hasn't matched that level of form in any run since but he has been set some pretty stiff targets and will appreciate the drop down into handicap company along with better ground. He has 6lb more to carry than his Irish rating but still looks leniently treated on some of his novice chase form and has been a safe jumper in all 13 of his chase starts.

PERFECT CANDIDATE (50/1) The third of the trends horses is appropriately named as he seems to tick all the boxes required of a Grand National winner. He's an Irish Bred 10yo who has won class 2 chases over 3m+ on a variety of ground conditions and has never fallen or unseated in his 17 chase starts. He's currently in good from having won a veterans chase on his last start by 5 lengths and should give a good account of himself at a decent price.

Quite a few firms are betting EW the first 5 places including Bet365 & SkyBet

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