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2018 Senate Overview: Two Americas

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2018 Senate Overview: Two Americas This issue brought to you by 2018 Senate Overview: Two Americas By Nathan L. Gonzales APRIL 20, 2018 VOLUME 2, NO. 8 John Edwards’ “Two Americas” speech failed to get him to the White House, but it’s an apt description of the fight for Congress in 2018. While Democrats are primed to take back the majority in the House, 2018 Senate Ratings Republicans are in better shape in the Senate, thanks to the class of senators 2018up this cycle. Senate Ratings Toss-Up This class of Democratic senatorsToss-Up has impeccable timing, considering Donnelly (D-Ind.) McCaskill (D-Mo.) Democrats picked up seats in the 2000, 2006, and 2012 cycles. Now in Donnelly (D-Ind.) Manchin (D-W.Va.) Heitkamp (D-N.D.) Nelson (D-Fla.)* 2018, Democrats are likely to have the wind at their backs once again Heitkamp (D-N.D.) McCaskill (D-Mo.) Heller (R-Nev.) AZ Open (Flake, R) while defending the seats they picked up six years ago. Manchin (D-W.Va.) HellerThe (R-Nev.)#consequence of having good election years in the Senate is that youTilt have Democratic to defend all of those seats Tiltsix years Republican later. The 2012 election Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican cycle has created a lopsided 2018 Senate map, where Democrats’ Baldwin (D-Wis.) Baldwin (D-Wis.) challenge is to maintain the status quo while the GOP has the Tester (D-Mont.) opportunityNelson (D-Fla.) to pick up several seats. Lean Democratic Lean Republican TesterThis (D-Mont.) cycle, Democrats are defending 24 seats compared to 9 for Republicans. Within the class are 10 Democratic senators in states Donald Brown (D-Ohio) TN Open (Corker, R)# Lean Democratic Lean Republican Trump won compared to one Republican senator in a Hillary Clinton Likely Democratic Likely Republican state.Brown (D-Ohio) Flake (R-Ariz.)# Casey (D-Pa.)# Cruz (R-Texas)# CaseyBut while(D-Pa.) the map of competitive races favors Republicans, there Smith (D-Minn.) isLikely plenty ofDemocratic hand-wringing on the GOPLikely side aboutRepublican the quality of Republican challengers and messy primaries. GOP strategists are divided Solid Democratic Solid Republican onKaine whether (D-Va.) to inspire donors and voters through optimism or fear. Cantwell (D-Wash.) Barrasso (R-Wyo.) SolidMeanwhile, Democratic the most vulnerable DemocraticSolid Republican senators are preparing for battle by raising impressive warchests. All but Sen. Bill Nelson of Cardin (D-Md.) Fischer (R-Neb.) Cantwell (D-Wash.) Barrasso (R-Wyo.) Florida are likely to have a financial advantage over their challengers, Carper (D-Del.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) Cardin (D-Md.) Corker (R-Tenn.) which is important because they will pay less for television ads Feinstein (D-Calif.) Wicker (R-Miss.) comparedCarper (D-Del.) to the GOP outside groupsCruz coming (R-Texas) in to try and save the day. Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) UT Open (Hatch, R) FeinsteinEven though (D-Calif.) some of these DemocratsFischer represent (R-Neb.) deep red states, Heinrich (D-N.M.) noneGillibrand of them (D- are N.Y.) considered a lost causeHatch yet—a (R-Utah) different dynamic than Hirono (D-Hawaii) in previous cycles when Mark Pryor of Arkansas or Mark Kirk of Illinois Heinrich (D-N.M.) Strange (R-Ala.) Kaine (D-Va.) looked destined to lose their seats by this point. King (I-Maine) HironoDemocrats (D-Hawaii) will test whether candidateWicker quality, (R-Miss.) fundraising, and the Klobuchar (D-Minn.) nationalKing (I- Maine)political environment will be enough to overcome the political Menendez (D-N.J.) leaningKlobuchar in their (D-Minn.) states. And while President Trump can incite Democratic turnout and be a liability among moderate voters, Republicans are Murphy (D-Conn.) GOP DEM Menendez (D-N.J.) learning that criticizing the president is out of the question because it Sanders (I-Vt.) 115th Congress 51 49 Murphy (D-Conn.) GOP DEM depresses GOP turnout. Stabenow (D-Mich.) Not up this cycle 42 23 SandersWith nearly (I-Vt.) six months before Election115th Day,Congress the most likely52 range48 of Warren (D-Mass.) Currently Solid 5 15 outcomesStabenow is (D-Mich.) a Republican gain of oneNot seat up to this a Democratic cycle 43 gain of two23 Whitehouse (D-R.I.) Competitive 4 11 seats,Warren which (D-Mass.) would be enough for a majority.Currently And Solid if Democrats7 retake15 Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting theWhitehouse Senate, that (D-R.I.) means everything is Competitivegoing right for their part2 y and 10 Republicans they’re likely looking at historic gains in the House. Takeovers in Italics # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans InsideElections.com Wisconsin 1: Republicans Forced to Candidate Conversation Defend Ryan Open Seat Xochitl Torres-Small (D) Democrat Randy Bryce garnered national support to oust New Mexico’s 2nd District — Speaker Paul Ryan from Congress, with a viral video and nickname Rating: Likely Republican (“Ironstache”). But now that Ryan’s decided against seeking re-election, Interview Date: March 14, 2018 Democrats still have a tough road ahead. President Donald Trump Date of Birth: Nov. 15, 1984; carried the district by 10 points in 2016 and Republicans have won every Portland, Ore. partisan race in the 1st District since at least 2008. Bryce is also an imperfect candidate, explaining how he “fell Education: Georgetown (2007), behind” child support payments in an article for The Huffington Post. Univ. of New Mexico Law Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom School (2015) His supporters, however, believe that his financial hardship is part of the appeal of a candidate who understands the struggles of working Elected Office: None; First run for office families. While his funds could drop off since he’s no longer facing the Current Outlook: GOP Rep. Steve Pearce’s run for governor means most powerful Republican in Congress, every other candidate in the field there’s an open seat in a district that President Donald Trump carried 50- will have to start from scratch. 40 percent over Hillary Clinton. It’s a seat Democrats have targeted before Bryce has a primary opponent in teacher Cathy Myers, who comes in and fallen short, but an open seat in a pro-Democratic environment could with a couple advantages: she’s won local election twice (the Janesville be enough for a takeover. Torres-Small is the likely Democratic nominee School Board in 2013 and 2016) and looks like she’ll be the only woman and will likely face either state Rep. Yvette Herrell or former Hobbs running in a Democratic primary, where women will likely be the mayor Monty Newman in the general election. majority of the electorate. But Myers ended March with $177,000 cash Evaluation: Torres-Small was a fascinating interview. At 33 years old, on hand, compared to Bryce’s $2.3 million. State Rep. Peter Barca is she is relatively young for a congressional candidate, but she effectively considering entering the Democratic primary as well. balanced youth and talking thoughtfully about policy. After completing Myers’ campaign team includes Bill Burton and Emily Campbell of her undergraduate degree in Washington, Torres-Small went back to SKDKnickerbocker, along with pollster Amy Levin of Benenson Strategy New Mexico and worked on Democrat Tom Udall’s successful Senate Group. Bryce is working with Global Strategy Group for polling and Bill campaign against Pearce. She worked as a field representative for the senator for four years before going to law school and clerking for a Hyers of Hilltop Public Solutions for media. President George W. Bush appointee. Torres-Small, who grew up in The Republican candidate is virtually guaranteed to be outspent by the district, admitted that neither party does enough to support rural Bryce in the general election, but the GOP could benefit from a fresh communities and plans to leverage her knowledge and experience on face in a political environment that punishes candidates connected to water issues in the expansive district that covers the southern half of the the “establishment.” Republicans have until the June 1 filing deadline state. She’ll also talk about Republican efforts to limit access to healthcare, to figure out their field. Potential Republican candidates include state particularly for children, on the campaign trail. But just when the Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, state Sen. Dave Craig, state Reps. Tyler interview started to feel normal, we got into a discussion about hunting August and Samantha Kerkman, and Bryan Steil, a member of the Board and Torres-Small explained what it takes to kill and butcher an oryx and of Regents. If there is a crowd, the primary will be August 14, potentially bring it back from the field. It’s not a bad story to have in her back pocket leaving more time for Bryce to build his operation. for Republicans ready to portray all Democrats as being against guns. In Wisconsin’s 1st is not a toss-up district, but could still host a very a big enough wave, Torres-Small could win, and she could quickly carve out a space for herself as a young Member representing a rural district competitive race under the circumstances. Once the field solidifies the that Trump carried. dynamics will be clearer, but Ryan’s retirement is a game-changing development. Move from Solid Republican to Lean Republican. Stuart Rothenberg Senior Editor @InsideElections [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections InsideElections.com Nathaniel Rakich Contributing Analyst [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Leah Askarinam Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Robert Yoon Will Taylor [email protected] [email protected] Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist @nathanlgonzales @leahaskarinam [email protected] [email protected] 840 First Street NE, 3rd Floor Annual subscription (24 issues/year): Washington, DC 20002, 202-546-2822 • Individual - $249 + sales tax • Silver License - $2,500 (tax included) Copyright 2018, Inside Elections LLC.
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