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2018 Senate Overview: Two Americas

By Nathan L. Gonzales April 20, 2018 Volume 2, No. 8 John Edwards’ “Two Americas” speech failed to get him to the White House, but it’s an apt description of the fight for Congress in 2018. While Democrats are primed to take back the majority in the House, 2018 Senate Ratings Republicans are in better shape in the Senate, thanks to the class of senators 2018up this cycle. Senate Ratings Toss-Up This class of Democratic senatorsToss-Up has impeccable timing, considering Donnelly (D-Ind.) McCaskill (D-Mo.) Democrats picked up seats in the 2000, 2006, and 2012 cycles. Now in Donnelly (D-Ind.) Manchin (D-W.Va.) Heitkamp (D-N.D.) Nelson (D-Fla.)* 2018, Democrats are likely to have the wind at their backs once again Heitkamp (D-N.D.) McCaskill (D-Mo.) Heller (R-Nev.) AZ Open (Flake, R) while defending the seats they picked up six years ago. Manchin (D-W.Va.) HellerThe (R-Nev.)#consequence of having good election years in the Senate is that youTilt have Democratic to defend all of those seats Tiltsix years Republican later. The 2012 election Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican cycle has created a lopsided 2018 Senate map, where Democrats’ Baldwin (D-Wis.) Baldwin (D-Wis.) challenge is to maintain the status quo while the GOP has the Tester (D-Mont.) opportunityNelson (D-Fla.) to pick up several seats. Lean Democratic Lean Republican TesterThis (D-Mont.) cycle, Democrats are defending 24 seats compared to 9 for Republicans. Within the class are 10 Democratic senators in states Donald Brown (D-Ohio) TN Open (Corker, R)# Lean Democratic Lean Republican Trump won compared to one Republican senator in a Likely Democratic Likely Republican state.Brown (D-Ohio) Flake (R-Ariz.)# Casey (D-Pa.)# Cruz (R-)# CaseyBut while(D-Pa.) the map of competitive races favors Republicans, there Smith (D-Minn.) isLikely plenty ofDemocratic hand-wringing on the GOPLikely side aboutRepublican the quality of Republican challengers and messy primaries. GOP strategists are divided Solid Democratic Solid Republican onKaine whether (D-Va.) to inspire donors and voters through optimism or fear. Cantwell (D-Wash.) Barrasso (R-Wyo.) SolidMeanwhile, Democratic the most vulnerable DemocraticSolid Republican senators are preparing for battle by raising impressive warchests. All but Sen. of Cardin (D-Md.) Fischer (R-Neb.) Cantwell (D-Wash.) Barrasso (R-Wyo.) are likely to have a financial advantage over their challengers, Carper (D-Del.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) Cardin (D-Md.) Corker (R-Tenn.) which is important because they will pay less for television ads Feinstein (D-Calif.) Wicker (R-Miss.) comparedCarper (D-Del.) to the GOP outside groupsCruz coming (R-Texas) in to try and save the day. Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) UT Open (Hatch, R) FeinsteinEven though (D-Calif.) some of these DemocratsFischer represent (R-Neb.) deep red states, Heinrich (D-N.M.) noneGillibrand of them (D- are N.Y.) considered a lost causeHatch yet—a (R-Utah) different dynamic than Hirono (D-Hawaii) in previous cycles when Mark Pryor of Arkansas or Mark Kirk of Heinrich (D-N.M.) Strange (R-Ala.) Kaine (D-Va.) looked destined to lose their seats by this point. King (I-Maine) HironoDemocrats (D-Hawaii) will test whether candidateWicker quality, (R-Miss.) fundraising, and the Klobuchar (D-Minn.) nationalKing (I- Maine)political environment will be enough to overcome the political Menendez (D-N.J.) leaningKlobuchar in their (D-Minn.) states. And while President Trump can incite Democratic turnout and be a liability among moderate voters, Republicans are Murphy (D-Conn.) GOP DEM Menendez (D-N.J.) learning that criticizing the president is out of the question because it Sanders (I-Vt.) 115th Congress 51 49 Murphy (D-Conn.) GOP DEM depresses GOP turnout. Stabenow (D-Mich.) Not up this cycle 42 23 SandersWith nearly (I-Vt.) six months before Election115th Day,Congress the most likely52 range48 of Warren (D-Mass.) Currently Solid 5 15 outcomesStabenow is (D-Mich.) a Republican gain of oneNot seat up to this a Democratic cycle 43 gain of two23 Whitehouse (D-R.I.) Competitive 4 11 seats,Warren which (D-Mass.) would be enough for a majority.Currently And Solid if Democrats7 retake15 Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting theWhitehouse Senate, that (D-R.I.) means everything is Competitivegoing right for their part2 y and 10 Republicans they’re likely looking at historic gains in the House. Takeovers in Italics # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans InsideElections.com 1: Republicans Forced to Candidate Conversation Defend Ryan Open Seat Xochitl Torres-Small (D) Democrat Randy Bryce garnered national support to oust New Mexico’s 2nd District — Speaker from Congress, with a viral video and nickname Rating: Likely Republican (“Ironstache”). But now that Ryan’s decided against seeking re-election, Interview Date: March 14, 2018 Democrats still have a tough road ahead. President Date of Birth: Nov. 15, 1984; carried the district by 10 points in 2016 and Republicans have won every Portland, Ore. partisan race in the 1st District since at least 2008. Bryce is also an imperfect candidate, explaining how he “fell Education: Georgetown (2007), behind” child support payments in an article for The Huffington Post. Univ. of New Mexico Law

Tom Williams/CQ Williams/CQ Tom School (2015) His supporters, however, believe that his financial hardship is part of the appeal of a candidate who understands the struggles of working Elected Office: None; First run for office families. While his funds could drop off since he’s no longer facing the Current Outlook: GOP Rep. Steve Pearce’s run for governor means most powerful Republican in Congress, every other candidate in the field there’s an open seat in a district that President Donald Trump carried 50- will have to start from scratch. 40 percent over Hillary Clinton. It’s a seat Democrats have targeted before Bryce has a primary opponent in teacher Cathy Myers, who comes in and fallen short, but an open seat in a pro-Democratic environment could with a couple advantages: she’s won local election twice (the Janesville be enough for a takeover. Torres-Small is the likely Democratic nominee School Board in 2013 and 2016) and looks like she’ll be the only woman and will likely face either state Rep. Yvette Herrell or former Hobbs running in a Democratic primary, where women will likely be the mayor Monty Newman in the general election. majority of the electorate. But Myers ended March with $177,000 cash Evaluation: Torres-Small was a fascinating interview. At 33 years old, on hand, compared to Bryce’s $2.3 million. State Rep. Peter Barca is she is relatively young for a congressional candidate, but she effectively considering entering the Democratic primary as well. balanced youth and talking thoughtfully about policy. After completing Myers’ campaign team includes Bill Burton and Emily Campbell of her undergraduate degree in Washington, Torres-Small went back to SKDKnickerbocker, along with pollster Amy Levin of Benenson Strategy New Mexico and worked on Democrat Tom Udall’s successful Senate Group. Bryce is working with Global Strategy Group for polling and Bill campaign against Pearce. She worked as a field representative for the senator for four years before going to law school and clerking for a Hyers of Hilltop Public Solutions for media. President George W. Bush appointee. Torres-Small, who grew up in The Republican candidate is virtually guaranteed to be outspent by the district, admitted that neither party does enough to support rural Bryce in the general election, but the GOP could benefit from a fresh communities and plans to leverage her knowledge and experience on face in a political environment that punishes candidates connected to water issues in the expansive district that covers the southern half of the the “establishment.” Republicans have until the June 1 filing deadline state. She’ll also talk about Republican efforts to limit access to healthcare, to figure out their field. Potential Republican candidates include state particularly for children, on the campaign trail. But just when the Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, state Sen. Dave Craig, state Reps. Tyler interview started to feel normal, we got into a discussion about hunting August and Samantha Kerkman, and Bryan Steil, a member of the Board and Torres-Small explained what it takes to kill and butcher an oryx and of Regents. If there is a crowd, the primary will be August 14, potentially bring it back from the field. It’s not a bad story to have in her back pocket leaving more time for Bryce to build his operation. for Republicans ready to portray all Democrats as being against guns. In Wisconsin’s 1st is not a toss-up district, but could still host a very a big enough wave, Torres-Small could win, and she could quickly carve out a space for herself as a young Member representing a rural district competitive race under the circumstances. Once the field solidifies the that Trump carried. dynamics will be clearer, but Ryan’s retirement is a game-changing development. Move from Solid Republican to Lean Republican.

Stuart Rothenberg Senior Editor @InsideElections [email protected] .com/InsideElections InsideElections.com Nathaniel Rakich Contributing Analyst [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Leah Askarinam Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Robert Yoon Will Taylor [email protected] [email protected] Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist @nathanlgonzales @leahaskarinam [email protected] [email protected]

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2 April 20, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research Senate Overview: State-by-State Analysis

ARIZONA. Open; (R) not seeking re-election.May 30 filing Party in and across the country. Even if de León finishes deadline. Aug. 28 primary. One of the most competitive Senate races in the second in the top two primary and the race moves on to November, he’d country begins with a competitive GOP primary between Rep. Martha need a combination of progressive Democrats and Republicans to McSally, former state topple Feinstein. In any scenario, a Democrat holds the seat. Solid D. Sen. , and PPIC, March 4-13 (LVs)—Primary Ballot: Feinstein over De León 42%- former Maricopa 16%. Feinstein Job Rating: 54% approve/41% disapprove. County Sheriff Joe PPIC, Jan. 21-30 (LVs)—Primary Ballot: Feinstein over De León 46%-17%. Arpaio. McSally IDs: Feinstein 52% favorable/38% unfavorable, De Leon 16%/19%. ($3.2 million cash on hand through March CONNECTICUT. Chris Murphy (D) elected 2012 (55%). June 12 31) bears the cross filing deadline. Aug. 14 primary.There’s really no buzz about this race in of the establishment the primary or general election. Murphy is mentioned on the outskirts of brand, but should also the 2020 presidential discussion, so winning re-election would be a good outpace her opponents Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call next step for him. The Connecticut Post reported he had $7.7 million in the Martha McSally in both fundraising bank at the end of March, while Republican Dominic Rapini has not yet and support from mainstream Republicans. Ward, who lost to Sen. John reported his numbers. State Sen. Tony Hwang has until the middle of McCain in the 2016 GOP primary, is often dismissed in Washington June to make up his mind, but it may not matter. Solid D. but has improved as a candidate and should be regarded as a credible contender. Still, if Ward ($424,000 COH) splits the anti-establishment vote DELAWARE. Tom Carper (D) elected 2000 (56%), 2006 (70%), with the 85-year-old Arpaio ($250,000), who was convicted of criminal 2012 (66%). July 10 filing deadline. Sept. 6 primary.Eight years ago, The contempt and pardoned by President Trump, McSally could win the First State drew national attention when Republicans threw away the nomination with a plurality. The GOP nominee will face Democratic Rep. opportunity to take Kyrsten Sinema ($6.7 million), who has a rare combination of progressive Vice President Joe support as one of two LGBTQ women in Congress and a more moderate Biden’s Senate seat by voting record after representing a more marginal congressional district. nominating Christine She might not embody the ideological purity that liberal Democrats desire, “I’m not a witch” but they’ll likely support a Democrat for Senate to send a message to O’Donnell. This year’s Trump anyway. Even though Trump won Arizona, this seat still looks like race isn’t likely to a Toss-up. be as exciting. Air OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona, April 10-11 (LVs)—General Force veteran/auto Election Ballots: Sinema over McSally 48%-42%, Sinema over Ward 50%-40%, mechanic Kerri Evelyn Sinema over Arpaio 59%-33%. GOP Primary Ballot: Ward 36%, McSally Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom Harris is challenging Tom Carper 27%, Arpaio 22%. IDs: Sinema 44% favorable/24% unfavorable, McSally Carper (who has 32%/34%, Ward 32%/37%, Arpaio 33%/63%. been in elected office since the 1970s) from the left in the Democratic Magellan Strategies, April 11-12, 15 (GOP Primary LVs)—GOP primary. Carper had a modest $968,000 in the bank at the end of March, Primary Ballot: McSally 36%, Arpaio 26%, Ward 25%. IDs: McSally 48% but Harris doesn’t appear to have filed with the FEC, which means she favorable/24% unfavorable, Arpaio 67%/28%, Ward 46%/26%. hasn’t raised or spent more than $5,000. Earlier this cycle, Carper again PPP (D) (IVR), March 15-16 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Sinema over denied a decades-old report that he physically abused his former wife McSally 46%-41%. and children, after the accusations resurfaced in a Free Beacon article. He Data Orbital, Jan. 11-15 (RVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: McSally 31%, Ward has admitted to once slapping his wife, an issue that came up during 19%, Arpario 22%. his 1982 campaign, which he explained in a statement released to The New York Times. But even in the current #MeToo environment, none of CALIFORNIA. Dianne Feinstein (D) elected 1992 Special (54%), the senator’s Democratic or Republican opponents appear to be talking 1994 (47%), 2000 (56%), 2006 (59%), 2012 (63%). June 5 primary. If a about the issue. Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in Delaware since Republican state Senate president were challenging a GOP senator in a Bill Roth’s re-election in 1994. He lost to Carper six years later. Solid D. primary, it would be front page news, but the California race between Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León is FLORIDA. Bill Nelson (D) elected 2000 (51%), 2006 (60%), 2012 still simmering below the surface. It’s hard to believe the term-limited (55%). May 4 filing deadline. Aug. 28 primary.To the surprise of precisely state legislator can knock off the veteran senator, especially since the Los no one, GOP Gov. Rick Scott announced his challenge to the three- Angeles Times reported he had $672,000 cash on hand at the end of the term senator. His decision guarantees an expensive re-election effort first quarter compared to Feinstein’s $10.4 million. But the state party for Nelson and will draw Democratic outside groups into Florida to declined to endorse Feinstein at its annual convention in February, which compensate for Scott’s personal money, drawing resources from other is yet another sign of anti-establishment division within the Democratic contests around the country. The early jousting in the race included

InsideElections.com April 20, 2018 3 Democrats downplaying Scott’s two statewide victories as expensive Quinnipiac Univ., Feb. 23-26 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Nelson over under-performances in strong GOP years. But Nelson hasn’t had a Scott 46%-42%. Job Ratings: Scott 49% approve/40% disapprove, Nelson competitive race since 2000, with two underwhelming opponents (Reps. 48%/34%. Katherine Harris and Connie Mack IV) in his last two races. Nelson had $10.5 million in the bank at the end of the March, but that’s small HAWAII. Mazie Hirono (D) elected 2012 (63%). June 5 filing change compared to $30 million or more Scott could put in from his deadline. Aug. 11 primary. It looks like defeating stage four kidney cancer own wallet. The governor is already on television statewide with an ad might have been Hirono’s most difficult challenge of the cycle. Much touting term limits. Partisan strategists on both sides of the aisle expect of the state’s political energy is focused on Rep. Colleen Hanabusa’s an expensive slog that is likely to be decided by a few points either way. primary challenge to Democratic Gov. David Ige and the race for But Democrats believe that in this political environment, late undecided Hanabusa’s open seat. Hirono had $2.1 million in the bank at the end of voters should break their way in the final days. Toss-up. March. Solid D. PPP (D)(IVR), April 10-11 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Nelson over Scott 50%-44%. IDs: Nelson 47% favorable/37% unfavorable, Scott 47%/46%. INDIANA. Joe Donnelly (D) elected 2012 (50%). May 8 primary. McLaughlin and Associates (R) for New Republican, March 10-13 Republicans are in the final weeks of a competitive three-way race (LVs)—General Election Ballot: Scott over Nelson 47%-46%. IDs: Scott 53% for the nomination. Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita were favorable/36% unfavorable, Nelson 41%/25%. regarded as the early Clearview Research, March 1-7 (LVs)—General Election Ballot: Scott over front runners, but Nelson 43%-41%. multiple sources believe former state Rep. Mike Braun Candidate Conversation has the edge. His outsider message, Javier Manjarres (R) businessman profile and personal Florida’s 22nd District — money have set him

Rating: Solid D Roll Call Wiilliams/CQ Tom apart from the two Todd Rokita Interview Date: April 11, 2018 congressmen, and Date of Birth: Dec. 12, 1972; allowed him to overcome past votes in Democratic primaries. There Flushing, NY aren’t a lot of differences between Messer’s and Rokita’s voting records (although Messer voted for the recent spending bill while Education: Broward College (attended) Rokita voted against it). The Indianapolis Star, however, reported this week that Messer didn‘t mention two previous convictions for drunk Elected Office:None; First run driving, when he was selected to replace a state lawmaker who was for office killed by a drunk driver in 2003. And the wrote Current Outlook: It’s hard to imagine Republicans winning a district about Rokita allegedly accessing a donor database when he was that Hillary Clinton carried by 16 points in a year that’s likely to favor secretary of state. All the GOP candidates are trying to get as close Democrats, but Manjarres doesn’t lack for confidence, should be able to to President Trump as possible, but no one can recapture the magic put together some money (including a friendly super PAC), and could at the same way. Rokita ($1.9 million) does his best, but he supported least make Democratic Rep. work for a fifth term. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and called Trump “vulgar” in the primaries. Evaluation: Manjarres is the first candidate we’ve interviewed who has Messer ($1.9 million) has been upfront about his decision to move his been arrested for attempted murder (it’s the first search result on Google). family to the Washington, D.C. suburbs, but his opponents are still But even though he’s a first-time candidate, he’s been around politics attacking him for leaving Indiana. While Republicans tear each other for years. A consultant who runs the Florida-based conservative Shark apart, Donnelly has started the general election with a television ad Tank blog, Manjarres knows the attack is coming. He explained that touting his bipartisanship and “common sense middle.” He’s still one charges were never filed and voters could sympathize with him when of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country considering Clinton they learn he was coming to the aid of his sister who was in an abusive relationship. The Republican plans to use the attention of the allegations received just 38 percent in Indiana. But Donnelly ($6.4 million) is to pivot to the congressman’s record, including taxes and spending regarded as an affable senator who received positive local press after issues. As a fast-talking candidate who doesn’t parse his words and joining Trump for a bipartisan dinner at the White House earlier in admits that he doesn’t have a squeaky-clean past (beyond the attempted the cycle, although he gave Republicans an opening by investing in murder allegation), Manjarres was not a boring interview. But you also a company that relied on foreign labor. Democrats believe they have have to suspend some belief that it’s possible for an imperfect Republican effective hits against any of the three Republicans. There might be candidate to win a district that has voted against Republicans in the past. less polling in this race than other states because of a state ban on IVR He believes that he has unique appeal to the Hispanic community, can technology. Toss-Up. put together a winning coalition of Republicans and independents, and GS Strategy Group (R) for Rokita, Jan. 6-9 (GOP Primary LVs)—GOP Deutch won’t be ready for his first well-funded GOP opponent. It still Primary Ballot: Rokita 24%, Messer 9%, Braun 9%. Rokita ID: 35% seems unlikely but should at least be interesting. favorable/6% unfavorable.

4 April 20, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research MAINE. Angus King (Independent) elected 2012 (53%). June 12 primary. King must be feeling confident about his re-election since 2018 House Ratings it’s been a few years since he has pretended he might caucus with Republicans. King doesn’t win just because he’s an Independent, but Toss-Up (8R, 2D) CA-48 from Lean R to Tilt R # because he’s the de facto Democratic nominee as well. Clinton defeated CA 39 (Open; Royce, R) NJ 2 (Open; LoBiondo, R) IL-12 from Likely R to Lean R # CA 49 (Open; Issa, R) NJ 11 (Open; Frelinghuysen, R) IA-02 from Likely D to Solid D (So, this will be off the chart or Dropped from the Trump by just 3 points in Maine, 48-45 percent, but it would take a List) MN 1 (Open; Walz, DFL) TX 23 (Hurd, R) perfect storm for Republicans to win. State Sen. Eric Brakey is running on KY 6 (Barr, R)# from Solid R to Lean R (note this is a two-category move) FYI, the GOP side but is unlikely to get the job done. President Trump failed MN 2 (Lewis, R) VA 10 (Comstock, R) newly added to the list MN 8 (Open; Nolan, DFL) WA 8 (Open; Reichert, R) MI 6 (Upton, R)# from Solid R to Likely R (also newly added) to convince term-limited Gov. Paul LePage to run but he likely would from Solid D to Likely D * (newly added) have lost as well. Solid D. Tilt Democratic (4D, 2R) Tilt Republican (14R) NY 11 Donovan, D)# from Solid R to Likely R (newly added) AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D) CA 10 (Denham, R) NY-22 from Lean R to Tilt R # NC 9 (Pittinger, R)# from Solid R to Likely R (newly added) AZ 2 (Open; McSally, R) CA 25 (Knight, R) MARYLAND. Ben Cardin (D) elected 2006 (54%), 2012 (56%). PA-6 from Likely R to Lean R # June 26 primary. Cardin has never had a blowout race, but after 2016 NH 1 (Open; Shea-Porter, D) CA 48 (Rohrabacher, R) TX-7 from Likely R to Lean R # when Clinton won Maryland by 26 points and Democratic Rep. Chris NJ 5 (Gottheimer, D) CO 6 (Coffman, R) VA 5 (Garrett, R)# from Solid R to Likely R (newly added) Van Hollen won the state’s other Senate seat by 25 points, the senator is NV 3 (Open; Rosen, D) FL 26 (Curbelo, R) in good shape for a third term. He does face a primary challenge from PA 15 (Open; Dent, R) IA 1 (Blum,R) former Army spy Chelsea Manning. But she hadn’t reported raising MI 11 (Open; Trott, R) and spending more than $5,000 through March while Cardin had $2.7 NE 2 (Bacon, R) million. There isn’t a serious Republican candidate in sight. Solid D. NY 19 (Faso, R) NY 22 (Tenney, R) MASSACHUSETTS. Elizabeth Warren (D) elected 2012 PA 1 (Fitzpatrick, R) (54%). May 8 filing deadline. Sept. 18 primary. Republicans concerned IL 6 (Roskam, R) about Warren running for president would love to derail her in her bid PA 17 (Rothfus, R) TX 7 (Culberson, R) for a second term. But it just isn’t coming together. GOP donor Sean AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D)# Kingston loaned his campaign $3 million but hadn’t spent it through Lean Democratic (1D, 1R) Lean Republican (10R) Move from Toss Up to Tilt D the end of December. State Rep. Geoff Diehl (who helped lead Trump’s FL 7 (Murphy, D) CA 45 (Walters, R) NJ 7 (Lance, R) AZ 2 (McSally, R)# Massachusetts campaign) and former state Consumer Affairs director FL 27 (Open; Ros-Lehtinen, R) IL 12 (Bost, R) UT 4 (Love, R) Move from Lean Republican to Toss-up Beth Lindstrom are also running. Meanwhile, Warren had $14.1 million KS 2 (Open; Jenkins, R) WI 1 (Open; Ryan, R) CA 24 (Carbajal, D)# in her campaign account at the end of March. Activity in this race will KS 3 (Yoder, R) From Likely D to Dropped From List likely come from outside GOP groups looking to soften her numbers KY 6 (Barr, R) before she runs for something bigger. Solid D. MI 8 (Bishop, R) FL 13 (Crist, D)# Move from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic WBUR/MassINC poll, March 16-18 (RVs)—General Election Ballots: MN 3 (Paulsen, R) Warren over Diehl 55%-20%, Warren over Lindstrom 53%-19%, Warren over Likely Democratic (5D, 2R) Likely Republican (21R) GA 6 (Handel, R)* Move from Lean R to Likely R Kingston 54%-21%. Warren ID: 53% favorable/36% unfavorable. CA 7 (Bera, D) AZ 8 (Vacant, R) NY 11 Donovan, R) FL 13 (Crist, D) CA 21 (Valadao, R) NY 24 (Katko, R) MT A-L (Gianforte, R)* . (D) elected 2000 (49%), 2006 MN 7 (Peterson, DFL) CA 50 (Hunter, R) OH 12 (Vacant, R) Move from Lean R to Likely R (57%), 2012 (59%). April 24 filing deadline. Aug. 7 primary.It’s hard to NV 4 (Open; Kihuen, D) GA 6 (Handel, R) PA 10 (Perry, R) believe we were once talking about Kid Rock running for the Senate. MN 7 (Peterson, DFL)# PA 5 (Open; Meehan, R) IL 13 (Davis, R) TX 32 (Sessions, R) Move from Lean D to Likely D Republicans still PA 6 (Open; Costello, R) IA 3 (Young, R) VA 2 (Taylor, R) have a potentially PA 8 (Cartwright, (D) ME 2 (Poliquin, R) VA 5 (Garrett, R) NE 2 (Bacon, R)# Lean Republican to Tilt Republican interesting challenger MI 6 (Upton, R) VA 7 (Brat, R) with John James, MT A-L (Gianforte, R) WA 5 (McMorris NJ 2 (OPEN; LoBiondo, R)# Rodgers, R) Move onto the board at Lean Republican a former Army NC 9 (Pittenger, R) Ranger, CEO of NC 13 (Budd, R) VA 2 (Taylor, R)# a local logistics Move onto the board at Likely Republican NM 2 (Open; Pearce, R) and warehousing firm, and son VA 7 (Brat, 4)# Move onto the board at Likely Republican of a prominent GOP DEM

Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom 115th Congress 240 195 African-American VA 10 (Comstock, R)# Debbie Stabenow Currently Solid 183 182 businessman in the From Tilt R to Toss Up Competitive 58 12 Detroit area. But his candidacy hasn’t caught fire yet and James must Needed for majority 218 get past venture capitalist Sandy Pensler in the primary. Either man # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans Takeovers in Italics will be an underdog against Stabenow ($8.8 milion COH) even though Trump narrowly won Michigan in 2016. Solid D.

Strategic National (R), April 4-5 (LVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: Pensler over James 20%-12%. IDs: Pensler 7% favorable/16% unfavorable, James 7%/6%.

InsideElections.com April 20, 2018 5 Strategic National (R), March 19-20 (LVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: Pensler over unseated Cochran in 2014, when he finished ahead of the incumbent in the James 21%-17%. IDs: Pensler 25% favorable/2% unfavorable, James 18%/2%. initial primary but lost in the runoff by 2 points. But this won’t be a typical Marketing Research Group, March 13-17 (LVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: primary. According to state law for the special election, all candidates Pensler 16%, Bob Carr 11%, James 8%. will run together, without party affiliation, in November. If no candidate receives a majority, then the top two finishers move on to a runoff. That MINNESOTA. Amy Klobuchar (DFL) elected 2006 (58%), 2012 means the fight for the Senate could extend until weeks after the regular (65%). June 5 filing deadline. Aug. 14 primary.Klobuchar ($5.6 million Election Day. Democratic hopes of winning the seat probably hinge on COH) is popular and starts the race with a significant advantage, consolidating behind a single candidate in the initial race and hoping particularly now that any GOP interest in Minnesota will go toward the McDaniel makes the runoff. But it’s not a guarantee a Democrat will get state’s other seat, formerly held by Al Franken. Republicans haven’t won that far with Mike Espy (a former congressman who served from 1987- Minnesota at the presidential level in 44 years, but Trump came close in 1993 and then as Secretary of Agriculture under President ) and 2016, losing 46-45 percent. GOP state Rep. Jim Newberger and others are Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton in the race. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is running. Solid D. already on television with a positive ad for Hyde-Smith, and Republicans are confident that they can take down McDaniel. But this race is just MINNESOTA SPECIAL. Tina Smith (DFL) appointed Jan. getting started. Solid R. 2018. June 5 filing deadline. Aug. 14 primary.Lt. Gov. Tina Smith became Y’All Politics, April 10-11 (LVs)—General Election Ballot: Hyde-Smith the 22nd woman currently serving in the U.S. Senate after Franken 33%, Espy 33%, McDaniel 13%, Jake Shelton 6%. Run-Off Ballots: Hyde- resigned amidst Smith over Espy 42%-36%, Espy over McDaniel 43%-24%. IDs: McDaniel allegations of sexual 17% favorable/42% unfavorable, Hyde-Smith 32%/16%, Espy 36%/26%. misconduct. Smith ($1.6 million COH) MISSOURI. Claire McCaskill (D) elected 2006 (50%), 2012 (55%). is running to fill the Aug. 7 primary. The good news for McCaskill is that the state Republican remainder of his term Party is in a state of disaster. State Attorney General Josh Hawley, and will enjoy the the likely GOP perks of incumbency, nominee, and much including the backing of the Republican of the DSCC and establishment has party leadership. Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom called on Republican Tina Smith Appearing on the Gov. Eric Greitens to same ballot with Klobuchar, who is likely to win re-election, certainly resign over allegations can’t hurt Smith’s chances. It is rare for voters to split their Senate seats of sexual misconduct. between the two parties when they are on the same ballot at the same And despite coming time, as we explained back in December. Republicans are intrigued to the race with by state Sen. Karen Housley, who is married to Phil Housley, a Hall high expectations, Josh Hawley of Fame hockey player and current coach of the National Hockey Hawley has not been League’s Buffalo Sabres, who had $501,00 cash on hand at the end of a stellar fundraiser, with $2.12 million cash on hand at the end of March March. Likely D. compared to McCaskill’s $11.5 million, according to the Kansas City Star. The bad news for McCaskill is that even in the face of Republican MISSISSIPPI. Roger Wicker (R) appointed 2007, elected 2008 dysfunction, the most recent public poll showed her running even with special (55%), 2012 (57%). June 5 primary. June 26 Primary Runoff.The Hawley, and below 50 percent. And she is navigating stories of unrest wind went out of the sails of this race when Republican Thad Cochran in the African-American community, which she’ll need in order to win resigned the state’s other seat. State Sen. Chris McDaniel decided to a third term. Even some Democrats admit that McCaskill ($11.5 million switch races and challenge the newly-appointed senator rather than COH) is one of their luckiest politicians and Republicans admit she’s Wicker, and Democratic interest followed McDaniel. Solid R. one of Democrats’ best politicians. Even though Republicans appear Y’All Politics, April 10-11 (LVs)—General Election Ballot: Wicker over to be in disarray and the senator is outpacing Hawley ($2.1 million) in Baria 48%-31%. Dem. Primary Ballot: Omeria Scott 9%, David Baria 7%, fundraising, Trump won The Show Me State by nearly 20 points in 2016, Jensen Bohren 4%, Howard Sherman 2%. GOP Primary Ballot: Wicker over and McCaskill should still be considered one of the most vulnerable Richard Boyanton 68%-10%. Wicker ID: 45% favorable/26% unfavorable. incumbents in the country. Toss-up. Mason Dixon, April 4-6 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: McCaskill over MISSISSIPPI SPECIAL. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) appointed Hawley 45%-44%. IDs: McCaskill 41% favorable/38% unfavorable, Hawley April 2018. April 24 Filing deadline. Nov. 6 primary. Nov. 27 runoff, if necessary. 33%/23%. GOP Gov. Phil Bryant appointed Hyde-Smith, the former state Secretary of PPP (D)(IVR), Jan. 8-9, (RVs)—General Election Ballot: McCaskill over Agriculture and Commerce, to replace Cochran. Instead of facing Wicker Hawley 45%-44%. IDs: McCaskill 44% favorable/44% unfavorable, Hawley (who’s been in office for a decade), Chris McDaniel announced he’d 29%/26%. switch races to challenge a senator who has been in office for less than a Remington Research (R) for the MO Scout, Jan. 3-4 (LVs)—General month, though nobody has filed paperwork for the seat yet. He nearly Election Ballot: Hawley over McCaskill 49%-45%.

6 April 20, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research . (D) elected 2006 (49%), 2012 (49%). June hurt him in the general election. Republicans, meanwhile, could struggle 5 primary. Republicans must navigate a competitive primary before for ammunition against Rosen, who is only in her first term in the focusing on Tester. ($541,000 COH), who House and didn’t serve in elected office previously. This still looks like finished third in the 2014 GOP primary for Congress with 29 percent Democrats’ best takeover opportunity and a must-win to take back the when Ryan Zinke finished first with 33 percent and went on to win the majority. Toss-up. general election, and former Billings District Judge Russ Fagg ($633,000 PPP (D)(IVR), March 15-17 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Rosen over COH according to the AP) look like the top Republican contenders. But Heller 44%-39%. Heller Job Rating: 28% approve/52% disapprove. Troy Downing ($98,000), the CEO of a California-based company who lives in Montana, can’t be dismissed because of his personal money. Fagg NEW JERSEY. Bob Menendez (D) appointed 2006, elected has been endorsed by a batch of former governors and representatives, 2006 (53%), 2012 (58%). June 5 primary. The federal corruption case but starts the race with less name I.D. than Rosendale. Tester ($6.8 against Menendez ended in a mistrial in mid-November when the jury million) has done a good job cultivating a regular-man image, but he’s deadlocked, but the senator drew a challenge from wealthy retired never won with more than 50 percent of the vote and has benefitted from pharmaceutical company CEO Bob Hugin. The likely GOP nominee a Libertarian candidate on the ballot. This cycle, a Green Party candidate could spend millions of his own money on the race and will force could pull some progressive voters from Tester. Trump defeated Clinton Democrats to pay attention. Menendez had $5.3 million in his campaign 56-36 percent in Montana. Tilt D. account on March 31. Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in the state WPAi for , April 15-16 (Likely GOP Primary Voters)— since Clifford Case’s re-election in 1972 and this doesn’t look like the type GOP Primary Ballot: Rosendale 40%, Fagg 17%, Downing 12%, Al Olszewski of cycle where they break the losing streak. Solid D. 8%. Rosendale ID: 59% favorable/11% unfavorable. Monmouth, April 6-10 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Menendez over WPAi for Rosendale, Feb. 5-7 (Likely GOP Primary Voters)—Primary Hugin 53%-32%. Menendez Job Rating: 38% approve/37% disapprove. IDs: Election Ballot: Rosendale 28%, Downing 12%, Fagg 11%, Oszewski 5%, Hugin 10% favorable/8% unfavorable, Menendez 28%/35%. Murray 1%. Rosendale ID: 43% favorable/14% unfavorable. Quinnipiac, March 8-12 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Menendez over Hugin 49%-32%. IDs: Menendez 35% favorable/37% unfavorable, Hugin NEBRASKA. Deb Fischer (R) elected 2012 (58%). May 15 primary. 10%/7%. Menendez Job Rating: 46% approve/39% disapprove. It’s been at least a decade since a Democrat has received more than 43 percent statewide in Nebraska, but some Democrats see a path to NEW MEXICO. Martin Heinrich (D) elected 2012 (51%). June victory for Lincoln 5 primary. Heinrich had a closer-than-expected race in 2012, when he City Councilwoman underperformed President Obama, but isn’t at much risk of losing re- Jane Raybould. They election. Contracting company owner Mick Rich, the presumptive GOP believe the tariff issue nominee, has some personal money to spend but hasn’t opened up his and Fischer’s lack of wallet yet. Heinrich had $4 million in the bank at the end of March. It’s attention to the state’s tough to see how there will be enough GOP outside money to spend on a agriculture interests state Clinton won by 8 points with a dozen better opportunities. Solid D. gives Raybould an opening (Fischer NEW YORK. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) appointed 2009, elected was added to the 2010 (63%), 2012 (72%). June 26 primary. The best-financed Republican Senate Agriculture, Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call in the race, Chele Chiavacci Farley, had $387,000 in the bank on March Deb Fischer Nutrition and Forestry 31 compared to Gillibrand’s $9.6 million. Clinton won New York by Committee in January). But while Raybould never misses an opportunity 23 points. That’s all you need to know about this race. We’ll see how to mention her background in the family grocery businesses, she doesn’t Gillibrand’s 2020 presidential campaign goes. Solid D. appear to be in running as a moderate. Fischer won’t be caught off- Siena College, April 8-12 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Gillibrand over guard and had $2.6 million in the bank on March 31 while Raybould had Farley 58%-27%. Gillibrand ID: 48% favorable/29% unfavorable. $333,000. Trump won the state by 25 points in 2016 and the burden of NBC4 New York/Marist, April 3-9 (RVs)—Gillibrand ID: 51% proof is still on Democrats to prove this is a real race. Solid R. favorable/28% unfavorable. Gillibrand Deserves Re-election 46%/39% time to JMC, March 4-5 (LVs)—Fischer Job Rating: 34% approve/42% disapprove. someone else. Fischer deserves to be re-elected 35%/42% no. Siena College, March 11-16 (RVs)—IDs: General Election Ballot: Gillibrand over Farley 60%-24%. Gillibrand ID: 49% favorable/25% unfavorable. NEVADA. Dean Heller (R) appointed 2011, elected 2012 (46%). June 12 primary. Heller avoided one headache when Danny Tarkanian . (D) elected 2012 (50%). dropped out of the Senate race and decided to switch to the 3rd District June 12 primary. GOP Rep. spent a year-and-a-half race. The senator was in jeopardy of losing renomination. Now Heller deciding whether to challenge Heitkamp, but finally announced his ($4.4 million) can focus on his likely Democratic opponent, 3rd District Senate run in mid-February. He was first elected in 2012 to replace GOP Rep. Jacky Rosen ($3.5 million). Democrats like their chances against the Rep. , who lost to Heitkamp for the open seat. Cramer defeated only GOP senator running for re-election in a state Hillary Clinton won state Rep. Pam Gulleson, 55-42 percent, in what was supposed to be a in 2016 and believe Heller’s comments during his primary on medical competitive race, and hasn’t had a serious race since. Heitkamp is a good marijuana, immigration, health care, and supporting the president will politician and probably the only Democrat who can win in a state where

InsideElections.com April 20, 2018 7 Trump defeated Clinton 63-27 percent. The senator had $5.3 million in Move from Lean D to Likely D. her campaign account at the end of March compared to Cramer’s $1.9 Muhlenberg College/Morning Call, April 4-12 (LVs)—General Election million. Heitkamp has a larger-than-life personality and ran a nearly Ballots: Casey over Barletta 48%-32%, Casey over Christiana 48%-29%. Casey flawless race in 2012. She isn’t likely to make a big mistake that gives Job Rating: 41% approve/28% disapprove. Republicans a foothold. But she still represents a deeply red state and Franklin and Marshall College, March 19-26 (mixed mode)(RVs)—General Republicans are confident in Cramer’s ability. Toss-up. Election Ballot: Casey over Barletta 43%-25%. IDs: Casey 43% favorable/25% The Tarrance Group for NRSC, Feb. 18-20 (LVs)—Cramer over Heitkamp unfavorable, Barletta 14%/13%. 49%-44%. IDs: Cramer 53% favorable/29% unfavorable, Heitkamp 54%/38%. PPP (D)(IVR), March 15-16 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Casey over Barletta 54%-36%. Casey Job Rating:, 41% approve/36% disapprove. OHIO. Sherrod Brown (D) elected 2006 (56%), 2012 (51%). May 8 primary. State Treasurer Josh Mandel shocked the political world by RHODE ISLAND. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) elected 2006 abruptly ending his challenge to Brown ($11.8 million COH) at the (54%), 2012 (65%). June 27 filing deadline. Sept. 12 primary.Not much has beginning of January. He wasn’t a perfect candidate, but he was a changed in this race. GOP excitement in the state is focused on defeating statewide office holder and a prolific fundraiser. Wealthy 6th District Rep. Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo. Neither state Rep. Bobby Nardolillo nor Jim Renacci ($4.2 million) filled the vacuum Mandel left by switching former state supreme court justice Bob Flanders looks like they have the from the gubernatorial race, with encouragement from President Trump. money to compete with Whitehouse in a state Clinton won easily. Solid D. Cleveland-area banker Mike Gibbons is also in the GOP race and has collected some local endorsements. But sources monitoring the race say he TENNESSEE. Open; Bob Corker (R) not seeking re-election. hasn’t gained enough traction and hasn’t spent enough of his own money August 2 primary. Even though Trump won The Volunteer State with to become a top-tier contender. Democrats are well aware that Ohio swung 61 percent, Democrats have forced this race onto the list of competitive from a 3-point Obama victory in 2012 to a 8-point Trump victory four years seats with former two-term Gov. Phil Bredesen. The state has shifted later. But they believe Brown’s working-class reputation and stance on toward Republicans trade will insulate him from a backlash from the president’s supporters. since he was last on Democrats have had to come up with a new playbook after Mandel left the ballot in 2006, the race, but they’ve got plenty of ammunition against Renacci. This race but he comes to the could be a test of President Trump’s ability to transfer his coalition to race with a favorable, another candidate. Lean D. moderate reputation On Message for Renacci, March 20 (LVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: Renacci and some personal 36%, Gibbons 8%, Eckhart 3%, Ackison 3%, Kiley 3%. money. Rep. Marsha SurveyUSA Election Poll, March 16-20 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Blackburn ($6 million Brown over Ackison 52%-37%, Brown over Eckart 53%-37%, Brown over COH according to Gibbons 52%-38%, Brown over Kiley 52%-37%, Brown over Renacci 52%- Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom National Journal) is the Marsha Blackburn 38%. GOP Primary Ballot (LVs): Renacci 21%, Gibbons 10%, Ackison 5%, likely GOP nominee Eckart 5%, Kiley 1%. and isn’t likely to face a competitive primary after former Rep. Stephen Baldwin Wallace University, Feb. 28-March 9 (RVs)—General Election Fincher dropped out when Corker was contemplating getting back into Ballot: Brown over Renacci 41%-29%, Brown over Gibbons 41%-31%. the race. Then Corker decided to stay retired and Fincher stayed out of the race. It’s clear Blackburn isn’t the favorite of some country club PENNSYLVANIA. Bob Casey Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 Republicans. Corker was more complimentary of Bredesen (giving the (54%). May 15 primary. Rep. Lou Barletta ($1.6 million) is expected to Democrat material for campaign ads) than he was for the presumptive defeat state Rep. Jim Christiana for the GOP nomination, but he faces a nominee of his own party, and Corker said he won’t campaign decidedly uphill race against Casey ($10 million) in the general election. against Bredesen. Bredesen ($1.8 million COH) has the advantage in Even though Trump initial polling, but it looks like he has a low ceiling, considering he’s a squeaked out a 49-48 Democrat, universal name I.D., and isn’t topping 50 percent. Democrats percent victory over haven’t won a Senate race in Tennessee since was re-elected in Clinton in 2016, there’s 1990 but the stars might align for it to happen again. Move from Likely R not a lot of evidence to Lean R. Barletta can replicate Middle Tennessee State Univ., March 22-29 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: the president’s Bredesen over Blackburn 45%-35%. or GOP Sen. Pat PPP (D)(IVR), March 15-16 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Bredesen over Toomey’s statewide Blackburn 46%-41%. victories, particularly with his reputation Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call (R) elected 2012 (56%). Democratic Rep. Beto Lou Barletta TEXAS. for a hardline stance O’Rourke has gained some national attention for his tremendous on immigration. With Republicans struggling to put the first tier of fundraising. Through the end of March, the congressman from El Paso vulnerable Democrats away and GOP problems persisting in Arizona surpassed Cruz in cash on hand, $8 million to $7.2 million. The 45-year- and Nevada, Pennsylvania seems to be slipping down the priority list. old O’Rourke has clearly tapped into a local and national Democratic

8 April 20, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research desire to send President Trump and Cruz a message. The senator spent Kaine over Stewart 56%-32%. GOP Primary Ballot: Stewart 16%, Jackson about $15 million in his 2012 race (including a competitive primary), 7%, Freitas 6%, Ivan Raiklin 1%. IDs: Kaine 53% favorable/35% unfavorable, but O’Rourke is on track to meet and exceed that figure. The question Freitas 4%/9%, Jackson 7%/10%, Stewart 13%/20%. is whether Texas is still a problem for Democrats that money can’t fix (Democrats haven’t won a significant statewide race in more than two WASHINGTON. Maria Cantwell (D) elected 2000 (49%), 2006 decades) and whether O’Rourke is moderate enough to win. He recently (57%), 2012 (60%). May 18 filing deadline. Aug. 7 primary. “It’s going to take a said he would vote to impeach the President, who won Texas by 9 points. miracle for me to win,” Republican Joey Gibson told a group of supporters O’Rourke also pulled an underwhelming 62 percent in the Democratic in February, in a rare moment of accurate political analysis by a candidate. primary against inferior opponents, although the Democrats who voted The real estate investor and leader of the conservative Patriot Prayer group against him on March 6 aren’t going to vote for Cruz. There are plenty doesn’t appear to have raised or spent more than $5,000 on his Senate of Republicans who don’t like Cruz as well, but will they ultimately campaign. Cantwell had $4.7 million at the end of March, is personally vote to help Chuck Schumer become majority leader of the Senate? With wealthy, and Clinton won Washington by 16 points. Republicans haven’t O’Rourke raising millions of dollars each quarter, it’s tough to call the won a Senate race in the state since 1994. Solid D. race Solid. Move from Solid R to Likely R. Quinnipiac Univ., Apr. 12-17 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Cruz over O’Rourke 47%-44%. Cruz Job Rating: 47% approve/45 % disapprove. IDs: Cruz 46% favorable/44% unfavorable, O’Rourke 30%/16%. Candidate Conversation PPP (D)(IVR) for End Citizens United, Jan. 17-18 (RVs)—General Kim Schrier (D) Election ballot: Cruz over O’Rourke 45%-37%. IDs: Cruz 38% favorable/49% unfavorable, O’Rourke 20% favorable/19% unfavorable. Washington’s 8th District — Rating: Toss-up UTAH. Open; (R) not seeking re-election. June 26 primary. Interview Date: April 10, 2018 Former Massachusetts governor/2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Date of Birth: Aug. 23, 1968; Romney is the prohibitive favorite to succeed Hatch. Romney ($1.2 million Los Angeles, Calif. COH), was a vocal critic of Trump during the 2016 campaign, but the president appears to have given up trying to block Romney from coming Education: Univ. of California, Berkeley (1991), UC-Davis to Washington. Salt Lake County Council member Jennifer Wilson, the Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call School of Medicine (1997) favorite for the Democratic nomination, is a credible candidate (her father was mayor of Salt Lake City) and Romney was born in Michigan, Elected Office: None; first run for office governed a state in New England and infamously has a house in Southern Current Outlook: Pediatrician Kim Schrier announced her challenge to California. It’s still hard to see him losing this race. Solid R. GOP Rep. Dave Reichert in August, but the congressman announced Dan Jones & Assoc./Univ. of Utah for Salt Lake Tribune, Feb. 9-16 his retirement a month later, leaving an open seat in the Seattle suburbs (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Romney 60%, Wilson 14%, Craig Bowden that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. Schrier, who has been endorsed (libertarian) 3%. by EMILY’s List, is the Democratic frontrunner in fundraising anad Dan Jones & Assoc./Univ. of Utah for Salt Lake Tribune, Jan. 15-18 (RVs)— looks likely to finish in the top two in the Aug. 7 primary to face former General Election ballot: Romney over Wilson 64%-19%. Republican state Sen. Dino Rossi in the general election. This is a prime Democratic takeover opportunity with Reichert out of the picture. VERMONT. Bernie Sanders (Independent) elected 2006 (65%), Evaluation: When we met with Rossi back in January, we called him “as 2012 (71%). May 31 filing deadline. Aug. 14 primary.Sanders had said he polished as a first-time congressional candidate gets.” But even though would run as a Democrat in future elections, but now plans to do the same she’s never run for elected office before, Schrier more than held her own thing he has done in the past (run as an Independent and caucus with the when we met with her recently. She moved to Issaquah (in the district) in 2001 and is a pediatrician. Schrier is running as a doctor, a mom with a Democrats). He doesn’t even have a Republican opponent. Solid D. child in local public schools, and a woman concerned about reproductive rights when Republicans are in power. She ultimately decided to run VIRGINIA. Tim Kaine (D) elected 2012 (53%). June 12 primary. after meeting with Reichert’s staff about the and the In 2004, President George W. Bush won Virginia by 8 points over John congressman voted in committee to get rid of it. Schrier acknowledged Kerry and the commonwealth was represented by two Republican that Republicans will tie her to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, senators. Fast forward a dozen years to when Clinton won by 6 points, but argued that voters are getting tired of those ads and it won’t be as Virginia is represented by two Democrats and Republicans aren’t likely much of a liability in district Clinton won once, and President Barack to be competitive in the 2018 race. It’s tough to see Prince William Obama carried twice. She wouldn’t promise to vote against Pelosi County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart, minister/2013 like Conor Lamb did in his special election race, but believes that her Lt. Gov. nominee E.W. Jackson or War veteran/state Del. Nick district is politically distinct from western Pennsylvania. Rossi has lost Freitas defeating Kaine ($10.3 million) in this political environment. statewide, but he’s often done well in this area. But Schrier argued the changing demographics of the district and political environment work They’re either too polarizing, too conservative, or underfunded. to her advantage. Schrier is playing catch-up to Rossi in fundraising, but Solid D. Republicans will be hard-pressed to find significant lines of attack that Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy, Feb. 5-28 (RVs)—General will stick in a Democratic-leaning district. Election Ballots: Kaine over Freitas 56%-33%, Kaine over Jackson 56%-32%,

InsideElections.com April 20, 2018 9 . Joe Manchin (D) elected 2010 special (53%), National Convention) and commented about supporting abortion rights. 2012 (61%). May 8 primary. The race against Manchin will come into more Vukmir is regarded as a more traditional conservative. While they battle focus in a couple of weeks when Republicans choose a nominee, but it it out, Baldwin has been on television with ads trying to define herself could also become before the full GOP onslaught. Republican Ron Johnson came from more complicated. behind to win re-election in the state’s other Senate seat, but this is a Former coal company different political climate. Tilt D. CEO Don Blankenship WPAi for Nicholson, April 2-4 (Likely GOP Primary Voters)—GOP is a serious contender Primary Ballot: Nicholson over Vukmir 45%-27%. in the GOP primary, Marquette Law School Poll, Feb. 25-March 1 (RVs)—GOP Primary after using his Ballot: Nicholson over Vukmir 28%-19%. IDs: Nicholson 7% favorable/7% personal wealth on unfavorable, Vukmir 10%/6%. Baldwin ID: 37% favorable/39% unfavorable. blistering attacks on PPP (D)(IVR), March 15-16 (RVs)—General Election Ballots: Baldwin over Manchin and his two Vukmir 51%-39%, Baldwin over Nicholson 51%-38%. Baldwin job rating: Republican opponents: Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call 48% approve/40% disapprove. Evan Jenkins Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Blankenship served a year in WYOMING. (R) appointed 2007, elected 2008 prison for his company’s mine safety violations and lying to the Securities special (73%), 2012 (76%). June 1 filing deadline. Aug. 21 primary.Earlier and Exchange Commission, but he wears his incarceration as a badge of in the cycle, Barrasso was in the middle of White House adviser Steve honor for standing up to President Obama, and his opponents can’t use it Bannon’s mission to unseat senators across the country. But primary to attack him. But Blankenship is also a polarizing and unpopular figure challenges by wealthy GOP donor Foster Friess or Blackwater private in the state and his nomination would be a problem for Republicans. security firm founder Erik Prince (Education Secretary Betsy DeVos’s Jenkins demonstrated some political skills by knocking off long-time brother) haven’t come to fruition. Jackson-based former CEO and Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall in 2014, but faces attacks in the primary part-time Stanford professor David Dodson said he’s running as an because he was previously a Democrat. Morrisey is a statewide elected Independent and plans to spend $1 million of his own money. Former official, but he’s also from New Jersey and has residual negatives from a Teton County School Board Chairman Gary Trauner is the likely tough and expensive re-election race in 2016 that he won 52-42 percent, Democratic nominee. He ran credible campaigns for the state’s lone underperforming Trump by 17 points. And Morrisey’s wife is a lobbyist House seat in 2006 and 2008, but it would take a GOP implosion of epic and the candidate has been criticized for some of her and her firm’s more proportions for him to win a state where Clinton fell short of 22 percent. liberal clients. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Wyoming since Gale McGee Manchin ($5.4 million) will be ready for the general election but also was re-elected in 1970, eight years before was elected to has the biggest electoral hole of his colleagues, considering Trump won Congress in the seat now held by his daughter. Solid R. West Virginia by 42 points. Republicans are hoping President Trump continues to be frustrated with Manchin, such as when he told The New York Times, “He talks. But he doesn’t do anything. He doesn’t do. ’Hey, let’s get together, let’s do bipartisan.’ I say, ‘Good, let’s go.’ Then you don’t hear from him again.” Manchin could be in stronger position than CALENDAR McCaskill, Heitkamp, and Donnelly. Toss-up. April 24 Arizona’s 8th District Special Election, Michigan Filing Deadline Osage Research for Morrisey, March 13 (LVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: May 4 Florida Filing Deadline Morrisey 24%, Blankenship 23%, Jenkins 17%. May 8 North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia Primaries; Harper Polling for Jenkins, March 5-6 (LVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: Jenkins Ohio’s 12th District Special Primary Election 29%, Blankenship 27%, Morrisey 19%. IDs: Morrisey 46% favorable/38% May 15 Oregon, Pennsylvania, Nebraska and Idaho Primaries unfavorable, Jenkins 51%/21%,Blankenship 39%/51%. May 18 Washington Filing Deadline Harper Polling for Jenkins, Feb. 5-6 (IVR)(LVs)—GOP Primary Ballots: , Arkansas and Georgia Primaries Jenkins 33%, Morrissey 25%, Blankenship 18%. Jenkins over Morrissey 42%- May 22 36%. April 9 - North Dakota Filing Deadline May 30 Arizona Filing Deadline April 12 - New York Filing Deadline May 31 Vermont Filing Deadline April 13 - Oklahoma Filing Deadline WISCONSIN. Tammy Baldwin (D) elected 2012 (51%). June 1 June 1 Alaska, Kansas, Wisconsin and Wyoming Filing Deadlines April 24 - Michigan Filing Deadline filing deadline. August 14 primary.Baldwin ($7.8 million) represents a Florida - May 4 Filing Deadline June 5 Minnesota, Hawaii and Massachusetts Filing Deadlines; “Trump state,” but she’s in a much different position than her colleagues California, Alabama, New Mexico, Mississippi, Montana, from Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, and North Dakota, considering , South Dakota and New Jersey Primaries he only won 47-46 percent. Republicans have a competitive primary June 12 Connecticut Filing Deadline; Virginia, North Dakota, between state Sen. Leah Vukmir ($650,000) and businessman/Marine South Carolina, Nevada and Maine Primaries Corps veteran Kevin Nicholson ($800,000). GOP mega-donor Richard June 15 New Hampshire Filing Deadline Uihlein contributed $2 million to a pro-Nicholson super PAC, and Club June 26 New York, Maryland, Utah, Oklahoma and Colorado Primaries for Growth has endorsed Nicholson, but he’ll have to explain to GOP June 27 Rhode Island Filing Deadline primary voters why he was a Democrat (he spoke at the 2000 Democratic

10 April 20, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research

CALENDAR March 12 Montana Filing Deadline March 13 Pennsylvania’s 18th District Special Election March 16 Iowa and Nevada Filing Deadlines March 20 Colorado Filing Deadline March 27 Missouri and South Dakota Filing Deadlines March 30 South Carolina Filing Deadlines