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Variances in Property Values Resulting from Market Evidence and Non 27508 Obinna LUmeh et al./ Elixir Inter. Busi. Mgmt. 75 (2014) 27508-27513 Available online at www.elixirpublishers.com (Elixir International Journal) International Business Management Elixir Inter. Busi. Mgmt. 75 (2014) 27508-27513 Variances in property values resulting from market evidence and non-standard anchoring and adjustments by valuers Obinna LUmeh 1,*, CharlesC Egolum 2 and Iche U Kalu 3 1Department of Estate Management, University of Lagos, Nigeria. 2Department of Estate Management, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka. 3Department of Estate Management, Abia State University, Uturu, Nigeria. ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Article history: The purpose of this paper is to determine the variances and significance of variances in Received: 7 July 2014; capital values of properties in metropolitan Lagos of Nigeria resulting from anchoring and Received in revised form: adjustment methods used by independent valuers in carrying out valuations within the scope 20 September 2014; of standard and non-standard anchoring paradigm. Valuation problems of ten properties Accepted: 1 October 2014; were presented to 144 valuers in metropolitan Lagos to solve; but 104 (72.2%) participated in the experiment; and the One –sample t-test was used to test the variances. The significant Keywords P were all 0.00 for the ten properties; and this means that there are significant variances in Adjustment, Anchoring, estimates of property values determined by the valuers in the area of study. Crises in Capital values, Heuristics, financial markets in Nigerian economy in the ending years of 2008 resulting from poor Independent valuers, property valuation and unreliable values of collateral properties advised by independent Residential property, Variances. valuers have heightened the need to find remedial measures to mitigate wide variances in the property values. Also, wide variances in capital values of real properties will result to clients losing confidence in values advised by valuation professionals. © 2014 Elixir All rights reserved Introduction obtained from estate agency firms that valuers are not staff of Variances in capital values of a property determined by (Wyatt, 2003). Due to the unfamiliar nature of some markets to independent valuers are generally accepted to be permissible in some valuers, anchors are sourced externally from the the valuation profession. What have been unacceptable are wide experience and knowledge of some local experts familiar with variances. Recently, the profession has come under attack by the property markets (Diaz 1997; 2002). Epley (2004) gave two those that make use of valuation reports such as banks and explanations why problem solvers base their judgments on sometimes courts. The policy of majority of banks in Nigeria is anchors provided by these experts. One is that problem solvers to brief multiple valuers to report on the value of any property usually take the anchor as a hint to the correct answer based on brought as collateral by loan applicants before advancing loans. the conversational logic that experts only provide relevant Variances in capital values seen in valuation reports have led to information. Second is that these professional services providers loss of confidence by the banks and created embarrassment to are more likely to stay close to the anchors because they have no the profession. A report of a select committee of the Nigerian previous knowledge to aid in adjusting it. Reinforcing the need Institution of Estate Surveyors and Valuers (1998) highlighted for local experts, Raheem (2005) also opined that failure of the problem of wide variances in capital values of various problem solvers to involve these experts in solving problems in classes of properties valued by their members. This paper unfamiliar areas may cause lack-of-participation error in studied the variances in capital values, significance of such outcomes. variances, and ascertained whether anchoring and adjustment Non-standard anchors (Non-specific anchor or Intuitive heuristic behaviour, and the anchoring and adjusted amounts in Approximation) the market evidence method of valuation have significant Non-standard anchors are sources of anchor data other than contribution to variances in property value opinions, and the market price anchors. Worth knowing is that market suggested remedial measures. uncertainty to valuers evokes these anchoring behaviours. For Review of Related Literature example, Levy and Schuck(1999) found that student valuers in Sources of Anchor an experimental context were influenced by previously Sources of anchors can be classified into: undertaken valuation task. Also, Diaz and Wolverton (1998) The Standard Anchor or Market Evidence Data observed that United States appraisers anchor to their own Standard anchors refer to recent prices of similar properties previous estimates of value. Anchor data could also be on used in the comparison method of valuation. These anchors previous price experience of subject property (Aycock, 1999). could be internally or externally generated anchors; or the Tversky and Kahneman (1974) opined that decision makers market prices data obtained from any of the branches of the have implicit tendency to spontaneously generate their own estate firm which a valuer executing a valuation task works independent hypotheses about states of the world based on for(Diaz, 1990; Wyatt 2003). The internally sourced kind of available raw data and to anchor their final decisions onto these standard anchors refer to the market prices of similar properties initial hypotheses. Diaz and Hansz’s (2000) observed that obtained from internal records of estate agency firms; while the United States experts operating in unfamiliar market anchor on external anchors are recent market prices of similar properties knowledge of pending price (or uncompleted contract prices) of Tele: E-mail addresses: [email protected] © 2014 Elixir All rights reserved 27509 Obinna LUmeh et al./ Elixir Inter. Busi. Mgmt. 75 (2014) 27508-27513 the subject and prices of similar properties. Knowledge and provided by valuation surveyors will be high; and the attendant experience of previous values retained in the memory of consequence is that claimed valuation professionals risk the valuersare sources of anchor data (Gallimore and Wolverton, chances of losing their exclusive preserve. 1997; and Havard, 2000). Diaz and Hansz (1997) found that Methods United States appraisers valuing property in areas which they As at May 24 th , 2011; 2679 were registered with Estate have limited knowledge also anchor to anonymous appraisers’ Surveyors and Valuers Registration Board of Nigeria (Source: prior opinion. Unlike the standard anchor used in the Estate Surveyors and Valuers Registration Board of Nigeria, comparison method which has wide acceptability as objective Lagos, 2012). The registered members randomly selected from market-based anchor data, non-standard anchoring heuristic six local governments have been carrying out valuation behaviours to valuation problem solving are subjective. exercises till date.These local governments are where firms of Adjustments of Market Evidences and Heuristic (Non- estate surveying and valuation cluster in Lagos. standard) Anchors The Chairman of Lagos State Branch of the Nigerian The recent prices obtained from local expert in the market Institution of Estate Surveyors and Valuersreported that there evidence method, have been generally viewed as objectively are roughly 260 registered firms and 700 registered valuers in determined prices. However, adjustments of the differences in Lagos state as at May 24 th , 2011. In this study, the 260 attributes of the similar property in order to determine the value registered firms represents the listed population; while the of the subject could not withstand the test of objectivity. sample frames is the 164 registered firms that were accessed Precision in adjusting evidences are not guaranteed as through a reconnaissance survey.In order to determine the adjustments are usually insufficient and subjective (Slovic& appropriate sample size (n) from the accessible population, the Lichtenstein 1971; Epley, 2001; Epley&Gilovich, 2004).Non- statistical formula of Yamane (1967) and a sampling error of standard anchoring behaviour are used to assist problem solvers 0.05 was adopted as shown: in situations market evidences are uncertain. Outside themarket evidences, cognitive-load manipulations have been shown to n influence judgments in a manner consistent with a process of Where n represents sample size, adjustment, from an initial assessment (e.g. Gilbert & Gill, N represents population size, 2000; Kruger, 2000; Pelham, Sumarta, &Myaskovsky, 1994). e represents sampling error. Epley, Keysar, Van Boven, &Gilovich, (2004) stressed that Inputting values in the formula, we have: adjustment is insufficient because valuers stop adjusting once n = 164/ (1 + (164 × 0.05 2)) they have reached a certain range of plausible values which has n = 164/1.41 to be close to the original anchor. These studies suggest that ń = 116 estate firms problem solvers adjust from values they generate as starting This sample size of 116 firms which is 71% of the sample points known to be incorrect but close to the target value. frame met Nwana’s (1981) recommendation of a minimum of Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristics and Value 40% of the total population when the population is in few Inconsistencies hundreds. Heuristics are shortcut behaviours used in processing Table 1: Information on Field
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