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Hydrology of a Dynamic Earth a Decadal Research Plan for Hydrologic Science

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Hydrology of a Dynamic Earth a Decadal Research Plan for Hydrologic Science Hydrology of a Dynamic Earth A Decadal Research Plan for Hydrologic Science November 2007 Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. Table of Contents CUAHSI Scientific Advisory Team ......................................................................... ii Foreword ...............................................................................................................................iii Scientific Understanding of a Vital Resource ................................................... 1 Two Driving Forces in the Dynamic Earth ........................................................ 2 Improving Understanding of Hydrologic Science ......................................... 3 1. Continental Water Dynamics .................................................................................6 1.1 Definition .......................................................................................................................6 1.2 Advancing Continental Water Dynamics ............................................................. 7 1.2.1 Variability, Change and Adaptation ....................................................................................... 7 1.2.2. Spatial Heterogeneity, Scaling and Emergent Behavior .............................................. 7 1.2.3 Modeling and Prediction in Continental Water Dynamics ............................................ 8 1.3 Opportunities ................................................................................................................9 2. Community Science Goals ....................................................................................12 2.1 Linking the Hydrosphere and the Biosphere ................................................13 2.2 Upscaling hydrologic, biogeochemical, and geomorphic processes ........13 2.3 Predicting the Effects of Human Development and Climate Change on Water Resources ..................................................................................15 3. Implementation Plan ..............................................................................................17 4. Education and Outreach ........................................................................................22 5. Linkages and Partnerships ...................................................................................24 6. Why Now? ......................................................................................................................26 7. References ......................................................................................................................27 - i - CUAHSI Scientific Advisory Team John Wilson, Chair New Mexico Institute of Mining Technology Roger Bales University of California, Merced Ana Barros Duke University Rafael Bras MIT Stephen Burges University of Washington Kevin Dressler, Manager Penn State University Chris Duffy Penn State University Dave Gochis NCAR Venkat Lakshmi University of South Carolina Upmanu Lall Columbia University David Maidment University of Texas Bridget Scanlon University of Texas John Selker Oregon State University Murugesu Sivapalan University of Illinois Soroosh Sorooshian University of California, Irvine - ii - Foreword This science plan is a continuation of the work of many scientists over the past few decades to advance hydrologic science. The 1991 NRC report Opportunities in the Hy- drologic Sciences led to the foundation of the Hydrologic Science Program within the National Science Foundation’s Geosciences Directorate, a first step in supporting the advancement of hydrologic science as a distinct discipline within Earth Sciences. A fol- low-on NSF-sponsored workshop resulted in a call for an interdisciplinary initiative to integrate Water, Energy, and Biota, published as the WEB report (Gupta, 2000, 2001; for the full report see http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/gupta/projects/web/). Key recommendations of the WEB report include (i) organizing hydrologic science ac- cording to scales, (ii) NSF support for mesoscale natural laboratories for conducting comprehensive interdisciplinary experiments and taking core observations, and (iii) de- veloping community infrastructure for experimentation and observations in item (ii). The Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. (CUAHSI) was founded in 2001 to develop the community infrastructure described in the WEB report. CUAHSI published an initial science vision for hydrologic community science (CUAHSI Technical Report #1), and focused on designing large-scale facilities (CUAHSI Technical Re- ports #2, 3, 4, 5, 7). These reports contained the concepts behind such facilities and identified needs and opportunities, yet lacked sufficient detail to define a multi-million dollar facility. Experience from the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information Systems project has shown that a multi-phase approach is needed to move from concept to a community facility. The con- ceptual phase must be followed up by a pilot phase to scope a project more precisely and to determine the best approach to delivering a service. The pilot phase is then followed by a developmental phase when the specific tools and services are “hardened” by testing them with a limited clientele to ensure reliability and operational readiness to serve the community. Only then have the necessary attributes of an operational community service been fully de- fined. This science plan summarizes the results of these interim community planning efforts. - iii - Hydrology of a Dynamic Earth A Decadal Research Plan for Hydrologic Science Scientific Understanding of a Vital Resource The Earth is dynamic and changing, but so too is seeks an improved ability to observe and predict human civilization. Conflicts between nature and dynamic interactions and feedbacks between vari- civilization are increasing. Nowhere is this more ous natural and human components of the critical evident than in conflicts involving water. The de- zone, and to assess the consequences of change. mand for water by agriculture and urban devel- Because of the integrative role of water, hydrolog- opment competes with the water requirements ic science has evolved as an interdisciplinary sci- of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. A warming ence that finds its frontiers at internal boundaries climate affects the amount, timing, and form of within hydrologic science (for example between precipitation, disrupting the efficiency of human groundwater and surface water) and at bound- engineered systems designed to harness and con- aries with other disciplines (including biogeo- trol that water. Human modifications for farming chemistry, ecology, climatology, geomorphology, and living combine with climate change to alter the oceanography, and social/behavioral sciences). form and shape of water movement through the environment, especially the propensity for floods. However, successes at these frontiers, while im- pressive, are still limited in scope, setting and co- Water is also the tie that binds many dynamic as- herency. Why? Interdisciplinary hydrologic science pects of nature. Changing weather patterns and is largely beyond the reach of individual investiga- water availability interact with vegetation change tors. Integrated observations and modeling must and influence erosion on hillslopes. Soil moisture stretch over many processes and settings, and feeds back to cloud formation and precipitation. across a range of time and space scales. They re- Groundwater discharge affects the biogeochem- quire a variety of technologies and talents not avail- istry of wetlands and the aquatic ecology of es- able to the individual or even to the small group. tuaries. And river discharge supports hyporheic Modern developments in sensors and sensors net- aquatic life and interacts with riparian vegetation. works, and information systems including compu- tational science, are not tuned to the needs of hy- These human and natural systems interact in drologic scientists and so are not readily accessible. the critical zone, the continent’s outermost sur- face defined from the vegetation canopy to To address these needs, and to take advan- deep groundwater, and from the atmospheric tage of new technological opportunities, hy- boundary layer, above, to the underlying bed- drologic science, through Consortium of rock, below. It extends across continents, from Universities for the Advancement of Hy- mountain headwaters to the coastal ocean. drologic Science, Inc. (CUAHSI), has adopt- ed a community goal for the coming decade: Environmental sciences grapple with a breadth of To develop an integrated and quantitative rep- processes in the critical zone, with hydrologic sci- resentation of continental water dynamics that ence taking the leading role in understanding the spans boundaries within hydrology and with other integrative role of water as it moves though con- disciplines. tinents. Understanding that is challenged by the Success of achieving this goal will be tested by non- disparate dynamics of water in the atmosphere, in trivial, successful predictions that cross boundaries, surface waters, and underground. Like other en- explaining how perturbations to one process inter- vironmental sciences, hydrologic science advances act with the coupled behavior of other processes. through integrated observations and modeling. It - 1 - Two Driving Forces in the Dynamic Earth Although the Earth and human civilization are ex- We are not prepared to deal with the coming water periencing many changes,
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